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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On an explosive day the latest CON leader betting and chart

SystemSystem Posts: 12,266
edited June 2016 in General

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  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited June 2016
    First like May!
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited June 2016
    Breaking !!!

    Charlie Falconer is out...

    Of Wimbledon. Just Murray and May left in to keep GB flag flying,
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,989
    A few thoughts:

    1) Boris Johnson. Hahahaha. I've always like BoJo as a character, but his political machinations have meant I could not supprt him politically (see my comments over the last couple of years). I often feel a little sorry for people whose politcal ambitions come crashing down: at least they've had the courage to try, which is more than I can say about myself. In this case, I don't fee sorry one bit.
    Hahahahahaha.

    2) A slightly altered version of something a friend posted on FB this morning, now sadly slightly out of date: "An Eagle, a Crab and a Fox are standing for elections. Sadly, there May be a Hunt coming after them."

    3) Very off-topic: My sister flew out to Sweden for the day yesterday to go wild boar shooting in a cinema with live ammunition. As an example:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4VROTBMZX38
    The images are projected onto a large roll of paper, and infrared cameras detect when/where a bullet hits and freezes the projection and shows where you hit.
    It looks great fun, and no animals were hurt.

    4) Does anyone believe this isn't a cover-up?
    "Chakrabarti inquiry: Labour not overrun by anti-Semitism"
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36672022
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,409
    Mein kopf tuten weh
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,562
    (((Dan Hodges))) ‏@DPJHodges 1m1 minute ago
    Told Milne is the only one now standing between Corbyn and resignation.

    Maybe he was never very happy at the Guardian.
  • I just don't understand the sudden enthusiasm for May.Unprincipled on the referendum,terrible record on non-EU immigration,13000
    foreign criminals allowed to remain in the UK ,appalling deterioration in security and standards in the Prison service, snoopers charter,knee jerk and inconsistent reactions on banning people from the UK etc .I just cannot believe the Tory rank and file will go for her with all this baggage.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    My mum doesn't trust May! Its all over for her.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,270
    Nowhere. Like Boris....
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,405
    edited June 2016

    Mein kopf tuten weh

    Actually, it should be:

    Mein Kopf tut weh.

    (I got a GCSE in German!)
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    good point

    Stephen Pollard ‏@stephenpollard · 19m19 minutes ago
    Remember how Jan Royall's report was supposed to be published with Chakrabarti? No sign of it.

  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    Kevin Maguire ‏@Kevin_Maguire 6m6 minutes ago
    Labour talk of pressure on Clive Lewis to run from that wing of the party if Jeremy Corbyn's persuaded/allowed to stand down
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,562
    I'm going out at 4 for an hour. Tell Corbyn to go now, or leave until the evening. I don't want to miss it!
  • LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941
    Chaos isn't a pit.
    Chaos is a ladder.
    Many who try to climb it fail and never get to try again.
    The fall breaks them.
    And some are given a chance to climb, but they refuse.
    They cling to the realm or the gods or love.
    Illusions.
    Only the ladder is real.
    The climb is all there is.


    We are living Game of Thrones.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,409

    good point

    Stephen Pollard ‏@stephenpollard · 19m19 minutes ago
    Remember how Jan Royall's report was supposed to be published with Chakrabarti? No sign of it.

    This is so funny in hindsight. Mad Nad posted this last night shortly after the YouGov came out

    While Boris led from the front during the referendum campaign, travelled the country working 14 hrs a day, week after week, where was May?
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Could be the end. Official complaint to the party unless he quits.

    Was Smeeth a loyalist? (i.e. not part of the rebellion)
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    (((Dan Hodges)))Verified account ‏@DPJHodges 2h2 hours ago
    Told Labour press officers saying they will not work future Corbyn events.

    Labour press office mutiny.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,989

    I just don't understand the sudden enthusiasm for May.Unprincipled on the referendum,terrible record on non-EU immigration,13000
    foreign criminals allowed to remain in the UK ,appalling deterioration in security and standards in the Prison service, snoopers charter,knee jerk and inconsistent reactions on banning people from the UK etc .I just cannot believe the Tory rank and file will go for her with all this baggage.

    She's the longest-serving Home Secretary in recent history (a while back I posted on the next-longest, but cannot remember). She's survived in an office that it notorious for grinding the reputations of prominent politicians. Yes, shes had failures, but she's also survived.

    Part of that survival is down to Cameron's reluctance to reshuffle, but much of it must be down to her own skills.

    The fact she's served in that position for so long, and wants more power, says there's some iron in her spine.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    Breaking !!!

    Charlie Falconer is out...

    Of Wimbledon. Just Murray and May left in to keep GB flag flying,

    Chuckle
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,655
    Keep posting the Dan hodges tweets here btw - he's blocked me so I'm unable to see his vapid bilge.
  • JennyFreemanJennyFreeman Posts: 488
    Theresa May will indeed almost certainly win ... but ...

    ... I'm sure I'm not the only one having a wry smile over a 'what does the market predict' thread. It's almost as much a kiss of death as getting Eddie Izzard's support.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    I just don't understand the sudden enthusiasm for May.Unprincipled on the referendum,terrible record on non-EU immigration,13000
    foreign criminals allowed to remain in the UK ,appalling deterioration in security and standards in the Prison service, snoopers charter,knee jerk and inconsistent reactions on banning people from the UK etc .I just cannot believe the Tory rank and file will go for her with all this baggage.

    I too am bemused. I have no special insight but I feel her complete invisibility in the referendum campaign means that people are now just projecting their wishes onto her as she is a blank slate.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    What a crock of shit. People are really losing their heads over this.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    good point

    Stephen Pollard ‏@stephenpollard · 19m19 minutes ago
    Remember how Jan Royall's report was supposed to be published with Chakrabarti? No sign of it.

    This is so funny in hindsight. Mad Nad posted this last night shortly after the YouGov came out

    While Boris led from the front during the referendum campaign, travelled the country working 14 hrs a day, week after week, where was May?
    Drafting a speech and picking out her suit :).
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,409
    @ProfChalmers: Given recent events, I'm wondering how many signatures I could get on a petition calling for the Chilcot Report to be delayed.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    This is so funny in hindsight. Mad Nad posted this last night shortly after the YouGov came out

    While Boris led from the front during the referendum campaign, travelled the country working 14 hrs a day, week after week, where was May?

    Have you not seen the footage of her in tears at the BoZo event?
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    I just don't understand the sudden enthusiasm for May.Unprincipled on the referendum,terrible record on non-EU immigration,13000
    foreign criminals allowed to remain in the UK ,appalling deterioration in security and standards in the Prison service, snoopers charter,knee jerk and inconsistent reactions on banning people from the UK etc .I just cannot believe the Tory rank and file will go for her with all this baggage.

    Rowing back on her pledge re ECHR. Hiding during the campaign. She claimed she'd been out making the cases for Remain. I've not seen a single report re her doing this.

    The more I consider her - the more I don't trust her. She's been playing silly buggers for months and months. Her anti-immigration speech was a clear leadership bid way back when, then she jumped to Remain. It's all too much of a game re her career.

    I can write-off some triangulation/positioning - but she's far too inconsistent.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,409
    Scott_P said:

    This is so funny in hindsight. Mad Nad posted this last night shortly after the YouGov came out

    While Boris led from the front during the referendum campaign, travelled the country working 14 hrs a day, week after week, where was May?

    Have you not seen the footage of her in tears at the BoZo event?
    No. Link please.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Copying Sean's post FPT

    SeanT said:
    Just realised there may not be a GE til 2020 now.

    Corbyn is on the verge of quitting. He's having a breakdown. He's 60-something. The ISIS Israel thing, eeek.

    So he goes. Labour get a decent leader who campaigns on REMAIN and renegotiate. In that situation LABOUR could get millions and millions of scared REMAIN voters, taking dozens of Tory seats (as Tories would be saying OUT), the last Lib Dem seats, maybe some SNP seats (as people so scared of leaving EU). Yes Labour would lose seats by the dozen to UKIP, but it won't matter if they get 10m REMAIN voters.

    In that light, the Tories simply won't call an election, citing FTPA.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Don't think Crabb and Fox won't get in the final two, it's a question of which of the other three fails to make it to the membership. Probably between Gove and Leadsom.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Does anyone know how Heathrow expansion will affect the residents of Surrey heath.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,797

    @ProfChalmers: Given recent events, I'm wondering how many signatures I could get on a petition calling for the Chilcot Report to be delayed.

    Could we just bring it forward to Monday so Corbyn can say his piece and then resign....
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    The Labour press office mutiny significantly ramps up the pressure. The Leader's Office robbed of its voice.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    RodCrosby said:

    What a crock of shit. People are really losing their heads over this.
    The least surprising response of the day.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    good point

    Stephen Pollard ‏@stephenpollard · 19m19 minutes ago
    Remember how Jan Royall's report was supposed to be published with Chakrabarti? No sign of it.

    Who's Jan Royall? What report?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,562
    Lot of jokes on Twitter about "remember when we were in the Bullingdon Club Dave, and used to smash up restaurants and then let someone else clear up the mess..."
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    AndyJS said:

    Don't think Crabb and Fox won't get in the final two, it's a question of which of the other three fails to make it to the membership. Probably between Gove and Leadsom.

    Iff May gets on the final ballot, I think she wins. I'm not sufficiently clued in on the PCP to know what her chances of achieving that are.
  • JennyFreemanJennyFreeman Posts: 488
    John_M said:

    AndyJS said:

    Don't think Crabb and Fox won't get in the final two, it's a question of which of the other three fails to make it to the membership. Probably between Gove and Leadsom.

    Iff May gets on the final ballot, I think she wins. I'm not sufficiently clued in on the PCP to know what her chances of achieving that are.
    Theresa May is rock solid for top two
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,562
    Jobabob said:

    Copying Sean's post FPT

    SeanT said:
    Just realised there may not be a GE til 2020 now.

    Corbyn is on the verge of quitting. He's having a breakdown. He's 60-something. The ISIS Israel thing, eeek.

    So he goes. Labour get a decent leader who campaigns on REMAIN and renegotiate. In that situation LABOUR could get millions and millions of scared REMAIN voters, taking dozens of Tory seats (as Tories would be saying OUT), the last Lib Dem seats, maybe some SNP seats (as people so scared of leaving EU). Yes Labour would lose seats by the dozen to UKIP, but it won't matter if they get 10m REMAIN voters.

    In that light, the Tories simply won't call an election, citing FTPA.

    May has already said no snap election IIRC.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @BBCNormanS: Just clocked Boris Johnson quotes Brutus in his speech today.Act 4.Scene 2. Go Shakespeare !
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Pulpstar said:

    Keep posting the Dan hodges tweets here btw - he's blocked me so I'm unable to see his vapid bilge.

    He's blocked you?!?! Golly, I thought Kay Burley blocking me for teasing her over sadness-in-his-eyes was a trifle OTT.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,855
    kjohnw said:

    SeanT said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I can see May treating Art 50 just like Dave did with Heathrow.

    Never making a decision, always delaying.

    But May has promised to respect the vote. Difficult to row back from that.

    I guess what she could do is: try to negotiate with Europe on Free Movement, get some emergency brake inside the EU, then return with that, and call an election. Where she would likely win.

    Big Ask, tho. However the EU is freaked by our potential departure....
    shes setting up a Department for Brexit with a Leaver at the helm, be difficult to row back from that I would have thought, her words this morning Brexit is Brexit, clear majority, high turnout, no wriggle room
    Remainers hoping for a last minute reprieve will almost certainly be disappointed, but I wouldn't take comments or plans made right now as gospel. Only fools, the deluded and those who just don't care would suggest not brexiting now, not respecting the will of the people. Even the LDs are only saying they want to rejoin, officially.

    The question would be would there be any rolling back in the next few months, assuming article 50 is not declared soon, which would given an opportunity to Remain after all. Something significant would have to change to make that viable, where it is not now.

    I would back at almost any odds that that will not happen, it requires too much contrivance and coincidental occurrences lining up, but everyone now needs to appear on board with leaving even if they were remainers,so they can survive long enough to take advantage should the improbable occur and an opportunity to remain after all emerges.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @KateProctorYP: Source quote of the hour! "Gove so stained in blood even by Tory Party standards it's hard to see how he can come back from this." #yplive
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,989
    PlatoSaid said:

    good point

    Stephen Pollard ‏@stephenpollard · 19m19 minutes ago
    Remember how Jan Royall's report was supposed to be published with Chakrabarti? No sign of it.

    Who's Jan Royall? What report?
    https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/social-affairs/discrimination/news/75128/labour-hit-new-anti-semitism-row-over-royall-report
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,409
    Scott_P said:
    Ta. To be fair, took all my self control not to blub last Friday morning circa 8.15am
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Scott_P said:

    @KateProctorYP: Source quote of the hour! "Gove so stained in blood even by Tory Party standards it's hard to see how he can come back from this." #yplive

    Maybe Leadsom will be second favourite by the end of the day.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited June 2016
    G-Live: - Labour MP Ruth Smeeth has urged Jeremy Corbyn to resign immediately, accusing him of a “catastrophic failure of leadership”, after he failed to defend her when she was abused at the launch of a report into antisemitism in the party. In a statement she said:

    "I was verbally attacked by a Momentum activist and Jeremy Corbyn supporter who used traditional antisemitic slurs to attack me for being part of a ‘media conspiracy’. It is beyond belief that someone could come to the launch of a report on antisemitism in the Labour Party and espouse such vile conspiracy theories about Jewish people, which were ironically highlighted as such in Ms [Shami] Chakrabarti’s report, while the leader of my own party stood by and did absolutely nothing."

    BBC – Labour ‘not overrun by anti-Semitism’

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36672022


    If it had been ant other party would we have a headline like that?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,655
    edited June 2016
    Are there any political journalists about without skin in the game these days ? Hodges has a very clear agenda with regards to Corbyn.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,112
    edited June 2016
    Jobabob said:

    Copying Sean's post FPT

    SeanT said:
    Just realised there may not be a GE til 2020 now.

    Corbyn is on the verge of quitting. He's having a breakdown. He's 60-something. The ISIS Israel thing, eeek.

    So he goes. Labour get a decent leader who campaigns on REMAIN and renegotiate. In that situation LABOUR could get millions and millions of scared REMAIN voters, taking dozens of Tory seats (as Tories would be saying OUT), the last Lib Dem seats, maybe some SNP seats (as people so scared of leaving EU). Yes Labour would lose seats by the dozen to UKIP, but it won't matter if they get 10m REMAIN voters.

    In that light, the Tories simply won't call an election, citing FTPA.

    EUR64,000 question:

    GE win by Back into EU Party = 11m voters. Call it 13m..or 15m.

    Leave = 17.5m voters.

    ?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    G-Live: - Labour MP Ruth Smeeth has urged Jeremy Corbyn to resign immediately, accusing him of a “catastrophic failure of leadership”, after he failed to defend her when she was abused at the launch of a report into antisemitism in the party. In a statement she said:

    "I was verbally attacked by a Momentum activist and Jeremy Corbyn supporter who used traditional antisemitic slurs to attack me for being part of a ‘media conspiracy’. It is beyond belief that someone could come to the launch of a report on antisemitism in the Labour Party and espouse such vile conspiracy theories about Jewish people, which were ironically highlighted as such in Ms [Shami] Chakrabarti’s report, while the leader of my own party stood by and did absolutely nothing."

    BBC – Labour ‘not overrun by anti-Semitism’

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36672022


    If it had been ant other party would we have a headline like that?

    I think she's from a Jewish background.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,783
    RodCrosby said:

    What a crock of shit. People are really losing their heads over this.

    I blame the Jews.

  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Article 50 will be served before March 2018.

    The next eighteen months will be spent lining up the replacement deals with the rest of the world and using them as insurance/leverage with the EU.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited June 2016
    PlatoSaid said:

    I can write-off some triangulation/positioning - but she's far too inconsistent.

    That really was LOL, Ms Plato: Boris supporter, former Cameron supporter, accusing Theresa May of inconsistency!
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Alistair said:
    stopped tweeting 4 hours ago... Soubry may have a chance to tweet some revenge soon!!
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Pulpstar said:

    Are there any political journalists about without skin in the game these days ? Hodges has a very clear agenda with regards to Corbyn.

    Even sketch writers like Michael Deacon have gone full partisan over Brexit - he told Mrs Gove to eff off in block caps on Twitter. It's completely bizarre.
  • JennyFreemanJennyFreeman Posts: 488
    Fwiw I too had qualms about Mrs May. Apparently she has no sense of humour which is probably the biggest indictment of all.

    However, her pro Brexit speech this morning allayed some of my fears even if it is politicking.

    I thought Boris was piss poor the morning after victory. It looked like a funeral procession: completely failed to grasp the moment and in so doing probably revealed his true nature.

    It's a good field though goodness knows how Liam Fox doesn't understand his own hubris.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Alistair said:
    Nadine isn't my cup of tea, but it's hard not to feel sorry for her. She really does wear her heart on her sleeve.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    Jobabob said:

    Copying Sean's post FPT

    SeanT said:
    Just realised there may not be a GE til 2020 now.

    Corbyn is on the verge of quitting. He's having a breakdown. He's 60-something. The ISIS Israel thing, eeek.

    So he goes. Labour get a decent leader who campaigns on REMAIN and renegotiate. In that situation LABOUR could get millions and millions of scared REMAIN voters, taking dozens of Tory seats (as Tories would be saying OUT), the last Lib Dem seats, maybe some SNP seats (as people so scared of leaving EU). Yes Labour would lose seats by the dozen to UKIP, but it won't matter if they get 10m REMAIN voters.

    In that light, the Tories simply won't call an election, citing FTPA.

    It would seriously change the situation, though, if it looked like the Conservatives would lose any election held. They'd be constrained both by their tiny majority and fears of MPs in marginals.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited June 2016
    I'm impressed by the Labour Party. A Labour press office going on strike shows true faithfulness to core principles.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    TOPPING said:

    Jobabob said:

    Copying Sean's post FPT

    SeanT said:
    Just realised there may not be a GE til 2020 now.

    Corbyn is on the verge of quitting. He's having a breakdown. He's 60-something. The ISIS Israel thing, eeek.

    So he goes. Labour get a decent leader who campaigns on REMAIN and renegotiate. In that situation LABOUR could get millions and millions of scared REMAIN voters, taking dozens of Tory seats (as Tories would be saying OUT), the last Lib Dem seats, maybe some SNP seats (as people so scared of leaving EU). Yes Labour would lose seats by the dozen to UKIP, but it won't matter if they get 10m REMAIN voters.

    In that light, the Tories simply won't call an election, citing FTPA.

    EUR64,000 question:

    GE win by Back into EU Party = 11m voters. Call it 13m..or 15m.

    Leave = 17.5m voters.

    ?
    Don't underestimate First Past the Post!
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    RodCrosby said:

    What a crock of shit. People are really losing their heads over this.
    mhhh Rod, you of all people might want to sit this one out.
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    Pulpstar said:

    Are there any political journalists about without skin in the game these days ? Hodges has a very clear agenda with regards to Corbyn.

    At least you know he has an agenda.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,944
    Scott_P said:

    @BBCNormanS: Just clocked Boris Johnson quotes Brutus in his speech today.Act 4.Scene 2. Go Shakespeare !

    Stanley Johnson mentioned Brutus on R4 earlier.
  • MontyHallMontyHall Posts: 226
    edited June 2016

    I just don't understand the sudden enthusiasm for May.Unprincipled on the referendum,terrible record on non-EU immigration,13000
    foreign criminals allowed to remain in the UK ,appalling deterioration in security and standards in the Prison service, snoopers charter,knee jerk and inconsistent reactions on banning people from the UK etc .I just cannot believe the Tory rank and file will go for her with all this baggage.

    The people have spoken on Brexit...

    So both parties seek to elect a Remainer as leader.

    The membership have spoken on Corbyn...

    So the MP's that didn't want him in the first place force him out.

    Democracy eh?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,112
    Jobabob said:

    TOPPING said:

    Jobabob said:

    Copying Sean's post FPT

    SeanT said:
    Just realised there may not be a GE til 2020 now.

    Corbyn is on the verge of quitting. He's having a breakdown. He's 60-something. The ISIS Israel thing, eeek.

    So he goes. Labour get a decent leader who campaigns on REMAIN and renegotiate. In that situation LABOUR could get millions and millions of scared REMAIN voters, taking dozens of Tory seats (as Tories would be saying OUT), the last Lib Dem seats, maybe some SNP seats (as people so scared of leaving EU). Yes Labour would lose seats by the dozen to UKIP, but it won't matter if they get 10m REMAIN voters.

    In that light, the Tories simply won't call an election, citing FTPA.

    EUR64,000 question:

    GE win by Back into EU Party = 11m voters. Call it 13m..or 15m.

    Leave = 17.5m voters.

    ?
    Don't underestimate First Past the Post!
    I am always hazy on FPTP, etc. Not sure if there is a good website where there might be an article on it all?
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    hezza going postal about boris.... hated hearing every word...
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024

    RodCrosby said:

    What a crock of shit. People are really losing their heads over this.

    I blame the Jews.

    ??
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180

    PlatoSaid said:

    I can write-off some triangulation/positioning - but she's far too inconsistent.

    That really was LOL, Ms Plato: Boris supporter, former Cameron supporter, accusing Theresa May of inconsistency!
    The contortions of some Leavers on here today have been quite remarkable - and the thought that #Ozzy could be behind it all pulling the strings is tearing them to pieces :)
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    I'm impressed by the Labour Party. A Labour press office going on strike shows true faithfulness to core principles.

    :)
  • wasdwasd Posts: 276
    'Joint Base Andrews on lockdown amid reports of shooter at medical facility'

    - Guardian
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Wanderer said:

    Jobabob said:

    Copying Sean's post FPT

    SeanT said:
    Just realised there may not be a GE til 2020 now.

    Corbyn is on the verge of quitting. He's having a breakdown. He's 60-something. The ISIS Israel thing, eeek.

    So he goes. Labour get a decent leader who campaigns on REMAIN and renegotiate. In that situation LABOUR could get millions and millions of scared REMAIN voters, taking dozens of Tory seats (as Tories would be saying OUT), the last Lib Dem seats, maybe some SNP seats (as people so scared of leaving EU). Yes Labour would lose seats by the dozen to UKIP, but it won't matter if they get 10m REMAIN voters.

    In that light, the Tories simply won't call an election, citing FTPA.

    It would seriously change the situation, though, if it looked like the Conservatives would lose any election held. They'd be constrained both by their tiny majority and fears of MPs in marginals.
    That's what Sean is saying I think – no GE until 2020
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    PlatoSaid said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Are there any political journalists about without skin in the game these days ? Hodges has a very clear agenda with regards to Corbyn.

    Even sketch writers like Michael Deacon have gone full partisan over Brexit - he told Mrs Gove to eff off in block caps on Twitter. It's completely bizarre.
    Mr Deacon's extensive coverage of Farage no doubt helped Brexit win in a little way, it's pretty funny he is now having a meltdown. Obviously he's more suited to being at the Guardian than the Telegraph but whatever pays his bills :)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,409

    I'm impressed by the Labour Party. A Labour press office going on strike shows true faithfulness to core principles.

    The head of the TSSA Union complaining about mass walkouts was a highlight this week.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,783

    PlatoSaid said:

    I can write-off some triangulation/positioning - but she's far too inconsistent.

    That really was LOL, Ms Plato: Boris supporter, former Cameron supporter, accusing Theresa May of inconsistency!

    Don't forget Blairite and Coalitionista.

  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,999
    eek said:

    @ProfChalmers: Given recent events, I'm wondering how many signatures I could get on a petition calling for the Chilcot Report to be delayed.

    Could we just bring it forward to Monday so Corbyn can say his piece and then resign....
    The idea that Labour / Eagle / Watson / whoever is allowing Corbyn his moment on Chilcot, after which he'll stand down is just about the last legitimate one for the continued inaction. Even so, I don't think it's enough. Corbyn could have been challenged and still responded to Chilcot in the House.

    The thing is, Corbyn might actually do quite well on Chilcot. For once, it's a subject he'll know well, be in tune with the public on and can take a battering ram to the Blairites. That will not only motivate his base but probably cause a few waverers to give him a bit more time "now that he's shown us what he can do". Of course, he could fluff it too, drone on for too long and wander off topic on to nuclear weapons, Syria or more contentious ground.

    Still, at this rate the Tory leadership contest will be over before Labour's has begun.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    hezza going postal about boris.... hated hearing every word...

    Hezza is just awful - he can't resist getting very rude and personal. I've had more than enough of him already.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    RodCrosby said:

    What a crock of shit. People are really losing their heads over this.

    I blame the Jews.

    You belong back in the Labour party ;-)
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,132
    "Jeremy Corbyn has turned the Labour Party into a personality cult" I keep reading from party members utterly faithful to and endless defenders of The Blessed Tony (for it is He).

    Tory bloodbath until the referendum. Labour bloodbath since then, until this morning when Gove assassinated Boris. Jezza tries to blow his own head off over Israel/IS leaving just Milne propping up the still twitching political corpse.

    And next week we have the relative calm of two rounds of Tory Leadership votes, probably Labour leadership hustings, more "WHATTHEFUCKDOWEDONOW" action on the EU. And of course the Chilcott Enquiry.

    And to think some people wanted me to vote Remain. And miss all this?
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454

    I'm impressed by the Labour Party. A Labour press office going on strike shows true faithfulness to core principles.

    The head of the TSSA Union complaining about mass walkouts was a highlight this week.
    Highlight of a lifetime.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    felix said:

    The contortions of some Leavers on here today have been quite remarkable - and the thought that #Ozzy could be behind it all pulling the strings is tearing them to pieces :)

    Just wait till he delivers the "punishment" budget in the Autumn...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,270
    Wanderer said:

    Jobabob said:

    Copying Sean's post FPT

    SeanT said:
    Just realised there may not be a GE til 2020 now.

    Corbyn is on the verge of quitting. He's having a breakdown. He's 60-something. The ISIS Israel thing, eeek.

    So he goes. Labour get a decent leader who campaigns on REMAIN and renegotiate. In that situation LABOUR could get millions and millions of scared REMAIN voters, taking dozens of Tory seats (as Tories would be saying OUT), the last Lib Dem seats, maybe some SNP seats (as people so scared of leaving EU). Yes Labour would lose seats by the dozen to UKIP, but it won't matter if they get 10m REMAIN voters.

    In that light, the Tories simply won't call an election, citing FTPA.

    It would seriously change the situation, though, if it looked like the Conservatives would lose any election held. They'd be constrained both by their tiny majority and fears of MPs in marginals.
    Might just concentrate enough Tory minds to get the revised boundaries passed though....
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited June 2016
    I stick by my assessment of the odds this morning (Betfair in brackets);

    May 50% (55%)
    Gove 40% (20%)
    Leadsom/Crabb/Fox 10% (25%)

    Value is on Gove.

  • JennyFreemanJennyFreeman Posts: 488
    nunu said:

    RodCrosby said:

    What a crock of shit. People are really losing their heads over this.

    I blame the Jews.

    ??
    I think it was a touch of irony. The Labour Party are yet again in trouble over this.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,797
    TOPPING said:

    Jobabob said:

    TOPPING said:

    Jobabob said:

    Copying Sean's post FPT

    SeanT said:
    Just realised there may not be a GE til 2020 now.

    Corbyn is on the verge of quitting. He's having a breakdown. He's 60-something. The ISIS Israel thing, eeek.

    So he goes. Labour get a decent leader who campaigns on REMAIN and renegotiate. In that situation LABOUR could get millions and millions of scared REMAIN voters, taking dozens of Tory seats (as Tories would be saying OUT), the last Lib Dem seats, maybe some SNP seats (as people so scared of leaving EU). Yes Labour would lose seats by the dozen to UKIP, but it won't matter if they get 10m REMAIN voters.

    In that light, the Tories simply won't call an election, citing FTPA.

    EUR64,000 question:

    GE win by Back into EU Party = 11m voters. Call it 13m..or 15m.

    Leave = 17.5m voters.

    ?
    Don't underestimate First Past the Post!
    I am always hazy on FPTP, etc. Not sure if there is a good website where there might be an article on it all?
    I believe the next thread is by TSE exulting the virtues of FPTP compared to other electoral counting systems...
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    TOPPING said:

    Jobabob said:

    TOPPING said:

    Jobabob said:

    Copying Sean's post FPT

    SeanT said:
    Just realised there may not be a GE til 2020 now.

    Corbyn is on the verge of quitting. He's having a breakdown. He's 60-something. The ISIS Israel thing, eeek.

    So he goes. Labour get a decent leader who campaigns on REMAIN and renegotiate. In that situation LABOUR could get millions and millions of scared REMAIN voters, taking dozens of Tory seats (as Tories would be saying OUT), the last Lib Dem seats, maybe some SNP seats (as people so scared of leaving EU). Yes Labour would lose seats by the dozen to UKIP, but it won't matter if they get 10m REMAIN voters.

    In that light, the Tories simply won't call an election, citing FTPA.

    EUR64,000 question:

    GE win by Back into EU Party = 11m voters. Call it 13m..or 15m.

    Leave = 17.5m voters.

    ?
    Don't underestimate First Past the Post!
    I am always hazy on FPTP, etc. Not sure if there is a good website where there might be an article on it all?
    I can certainly point you to one will you can indulge to your heart's content on AV!
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    TOPPING said:

    Jobabob said:

    TOPPING said:

    Jobabob said:

    Copying Sean's post FPT

    SeanT said:
    Just realised there may not be a GE til 2020 now.

    Corbyn is on the verge of quitting. He's having a breakdown. He's 60-something. The ISIS Israel thing, eeek.

    So he goes. Labour get a decent leader who campaigns on REMAIN and renegotiate. In that situation LABOUR could get millions and millions of scared REMAIN voters, taking dozens of Tory seats (as Tories would be saying OUT), the last Lib Dem seats, maybe some SNP seats (as people so scared of leaving EU). Yes Labour would lose seats by the dozen to UKIP, but it won't matter if they get 10m REMAIN voters.

    In that light, the Tories simply won't call an election, citing FTPA.

    EUR64,000 question:

    GE win by Back into EU Party = 11m voters. Call it 13m..or 15m.

    Leave = 17.5m voters.

    ?
    Don't underestimate First Past the Post!
    I am always hazy on FPTP, etc. Not sure if there is a good website where there might be an article on it all?
    I can certainly point you to one where you can indulge to your heart's content on AV!
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,261
    BorisIsCrap is an odd phenomenon to me, not because I think he genuinely wanted Brexit, it's just that I had genuine faith that he could bullshit and cheerlead his way out of anything. You're Boris. You didn't want Brexit. Brexit has happened. What do you do? I'd go out on a zipwire with a couple of union jacks and just be Boris. That's really all the country needs for the moment - a dose of brash optimism. The clouds are dissipating naturally anyway, but why Boris had to come out looking like someone had stolen all his sugarpuffs is anyone's guess.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,999
    Jobabob said:

    (((Dan Hodges)))Verified account ‏@DPJHodges 2h2 hours ago
    Told Labour press officers saying they will not work future Corbyn events.

    Labour press office mutiny.

    Surely that's gross misconduct?
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    PlatoSaid said:

    hezza going postal about boris.... hated hearing every word...

    Hezza is just awful - he can't resist getting very rude and personal. I've had more than enough of him already.
    Heseltine was the Boris of his day, perhaps it's bringing all the bad memories back!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @rabbisacks: "Jeremy Corbyn’s comparison of Israel to ISIS is demonisation of the highest order." Full comment here: https://t.co/vqQ2ow0Yqs
  • What was Hezza's point?
  • JennyFreemanJennyFreeman Posts: 488
    It will be Gove vs May.

    So a state educated Tory Prime Minister. Good.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited June 2016
    Jobabob said:

    RodCrosby said:

    What a crock of shit. People are really losing their heads over this.
    The least surprising response of the day.
    Some MP no-one's heard of is accused by someone else of being in league with those against Corbyn. The whole world seems to be against Corbyn at the moment, so she's hardly being singled out.

    She squeaks "But I'm Jewish!" [did anyone know or care?] and because Corbyn didn't "intervene" in some ruck going on in the audience, he's now AntiSemite-in-Chief.

    Total crock.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,989

    eek said:

    @ProfChalmers: Given recent events, I'm wondering how many signatures I could get on a petition calling for the Chilcot Report to be delayed.

    Could we just bring it forward to Monday so Corbyn can say his piece and then resign....
    The idea that Labour / Eagle / Watson / whoever is allowing Corbyn his moment on Chilcot, after which he'll stand down is just about the last legitimate one for the continued inaction. Even so, I don't think it's enough. Corbyn could have been challenged and still responded to Chilcot in the House.

    The thing is, Corbyn might actually do quite well on Chilcot. For once, it's a subject he'll know well, be in tune with the public on and can take a battering ram to the Blairites. That will not only motivate his base but probably cause a few waverers to give him a bit more time "now that he's shown us what he can do". Of course, he could fluff it too, drone on for too long and wander off topic on to nuclear weapons, Syria or more contentious ground.

    Still, at this rate the Tory leadership contest will be over before Labour's has begun.
    Unless Chilcot doesn't say what he wants it to say. He might respond to what he thinks it says, rather than what it does say.

    Mind you, I think many of us will be doing the same.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,334
    PlatoSaid said:

    I just don't understand the sudden enthusiasm for May.Unprincipled on the referendum,terrible record on non-EU immigration,13000
    foreign criminals allowed to remain in the UK ,appalling deterioration in security and standards in the Prison service, snoopers charter,knee jerk and inconsistent reactions on banning people from the UK etc .I just cannot believe the Tory rank and file will go for her with all this baggage.

    Rowing back on her pledge re ECHR. Hiding during the campaign. She claimed she'd been out making the cases for Remain. I've not seen a single report re her doing this.

    The more I consider her - the more I don't trust her. She's been playing silly buggers for months and months. Her anti-immigration speech was a clear leadership bid way back when, then she jumped to Remain. It's all too much of a game re her career.

    I can write-off some triangulation/positioning - but she's far too inconsistent.
    Weren't you ready to vote for Boris just a few hours ago?
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited June 2016
    Jobabob said:

    Wanderer said:

    Jobabob said:

    Copying Sean's post FPT

    SeanT said:
    Just realised there may not be a GE til 2020 now.

    Corbyn is on the verge of quitting. He's having a breakdown. He's 60-something. The ISIS Israel thing, eeek.

    So he goes. Labour get a decent leader who campaigns on REMAIN and renegotiate. In that situation LABOUR could get millions and millions of scared REMAIN voters, taking dozens of Tory seats (as Tories would be saying OUT), the last Lib Dem seats, maybe some SNP seats (as people so scared of leaving EU). Yes Labour would lose seats by the dozen to UKIP, but it won't matter if they get 10m REMAIN voters.

    In that light, the Tories simply won't call an election, citing FTPA.

    It would seriously change the situation, though, if it looked like the Conservatives would lose any election held. They'd be constrained both by their tiny majority and fears of MPs in marginals.
    That's what Sean is saying I think – no GE until 2020
    Worth noting that LEAVE have a c. 200-seat majority under FPTP. Labour coming out wholeheartedly for the EU would be a further retreat into our biggest cities. Though it would also uselessly get them up to 5-10k across large chunks of the South East.

    https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/the-eu-referendum-how-did-westminster-constituencies-vote-283c85cd20e1#.ft7nz88e9
This discussion has been closed.