Are there any political journalists about without skin in the game these days ? Hodges has a very clear agenda with regards to Corbyn.
Even sketch writers like Michael Deacon have gone full partisan over Brexit - he told Mrs Gove to eff off in block caps on Twitter. It's completely bizarre.
Mr Deacon's extensive coverage of Farage no doubt helped Brexit win in a little way, it's pretty funny he is now having a meltdown. Obviously he's more suited to being at the Guardian than the Telegraph but whatever pays his bills
The strange behaviour of the few die hard europhiles. Is it a treatable condition?
I just don't understand the sudden enthusiasm for May.Unprincipled on the referendum,terrible record on non-EU immigration,13000 foreign criminals allowed to remain in the UK ,appalling deterioration in security and standards in the Prison service, snoopers charter,knee jerk and inconsistent reactions on banning people from the UK etc .I just cannot believe the Tory rank and file will go for her with all this baggage.
Rowing back on her pledge re ECHR. Hiding during the campaign. She claimed she'd been out making the cases for Remain. I've not seen a single report re her doing this.
The more I consider her - the more I don't trust her. She's been playing silly buggers for months and months. Her anti-immigration speech was a clear leadership bid way back when, then she jumped to Remain. It's all too much of a game re her career.
I can write-off some triangulation/positioning - but she's far too inconsistent.
She sounds like a very smart politician to me. Maybe that's who we want negotiating for us?
SeanT said: Just realised there may not be a GE til 2020 now.
Corbyn is on the verge of quitting. He's having a breakdown. He's 60-something. The ISIS Israel thing, eeek.
So he goes. Labour get a decent leader who campaigns on REMAIN and renegotiate. In that situation LABOUR could get millions and millions of scared REMAIN voters, taking dozens of Tory seats (as Tories would be saying OUT), the last Lib Dem seats, maybe some SNP seats (as people so scared of leaving EU). Yes Labour would lose seats by the dozen to UKIP, but it won't matter if they get 10m REMAIN voters.
In that light, the Tories simply won't call an election, citing FTPA.
EUR64,000 question:
GE win by Back into EU Party = 11m voters. Call it 13m..or 15m.
Leave = 17.5m voters.
?
GE trumps an advisory referendum with such a close result any day.
SeanT said: Just realised there may not be a GE til 2020 now.
Corbyn is on the verge of quitting. He's having a breakdown. He's 60-something. The ISIS Israel thing, eeek.
So he goes. Labour get a decent leader who campaigns on REMAIN and renegotiate. In that situation LABOUR could get millions and millions of scared REMAIN voters, taking dozens of Tory seats (as Tories would be saying OUT), the last Lib Dem seats, maybe some SNP seats (as people so scared of leaving EU). Yes Labour would lose seats by the dozen to UKIP, but it won't matter if they get 10m REMAIN voters.
In that light, the Tories simply won't call an election, citing FTPA.
It would seriously change the situation, though, if it looked like the Conservatives would lose any election held. They'd be constrained both by their tiny majority and fears of MPs in marginals.
That's what Sean is saying I think – no GE until 2020
Worth noting that LEAVE have a c. 200-seat majority under FPTP. Labour coming out wholeheartedly for the EU would be a further retreat into our biggest cities. Though it would also uselessly get them up to 5k across large chunks of the South East.
I just don't understand the sudden enthusiasm for May.Unprincipled on the referendum,terrible record on non-EU immigration,13000 foreign criminals allowed to remain in the UK ,appalling deterioration in security and standards in the Prison service, snoopers charter,knee jerk and inconsistent reactions on banning people from the UK etc .I just cannot believe the Tory rank and file will go for her with all this baggage.
Rowing back on her pledge re ECHR. Hiding during the campaign. She claimed she'd been out making the cases for Remain. I've not seen a single report re her doing this.
The more I consider her - the more I don't trust her. She's been playing silly buggers for months and months. Her anti-immigration speech was a clear leadership bid way back when, then she jumped to Remain. It's all too much of a game re her career.
I can write-off some triangulation/positioning - but she's far too inconsistent.
Weren't you ready to vote for Boris just a few hours ago?
Well, he's not available and I'm on record of wanting Gove to run. I'm delighted he is now.
What a crock of shit. People are really losing their heads over this.
I blame the Jews.
You belong back in the Labour party ;-)
Southam is possibly the most insightful and clued in left leaning posters here. I always invariably read his output.....although he sometimes likes to pander a little bit too much to the pb Tories...but you can't have everything.
I think all five candidates might be state educated.
correct!
Oh yes. Stunning isn't it. I wonder in a way if that's one of the subtexts that also did for Boris. Did we really want another Etonian Bullingdon boy? The answers's no.
he wasnt' far short of calling for Boris being put on trial for treason.. a splendidly articulate but off-the-wall rant
Not surprised - Hezza is a diehard Europhile. He won't be able to dream of the Euro or a superstate any more. What a gimp. The sort of de-haut-en-bas patrician establishment cnut that created Brexit in the first place.
hezza going postal about boris.... hated hearing every word...
Hezza is just awful - he can't resist getting very rude and personal. I've had more than enough of him already.
Heseltine was the Boris of his day, perhaps it's bringing all the bad memories back!
Heseltine actually achieved things. There should be statues to him built in Docklands and elsewhere.
Boris has two outstanding attributes: he can write and speak well, and he can play the fool. There's no heft to him, no substance. He's SeanT with a political career.
hezza going postal about boris.... hated hearing every word...
Hezza is just awful - he can't resist getting very rude and personal. I've had more than enough of him already.
Heseltine was the Boris of his day, perhaps it's bringing all the bad memories back!
Heseltine actually achieved things. There should be statues to him built in Docklands and elsewhere.
Boris has two outstanding attributes: he can write and speak well, and he can play the fool. There's no heft to him, no substance. He's SeanT with a political career.
Heseltine did achieve things but he never achieved his ultimate aim. By bowing out early Boris still leaves himself in with a future chance of the top job.
he wasnt' far short of calling for Boris being put on trial for treason.. a splendidly articulate but off-the-wall rant
Not surprised - Hezza is a diehard Europhile. He won't be able to dream of the Euro or a superstate any more. What a gimp. The sort of de-haut-en-bas patrician establishment cnut that created Brexit in the first place.
Quite. It's rather sad when someone who loves himself is no longer loved by anyone else.
The next eighteen months will be spent lining up the replacement deals with the rest of the world and using them as insurance/leverage with the EU.
Agree about the other trade deals, but I'd hope to see Article 50 by March 2017. It's already quite clear that a number of Commonwealth countries would happily sit down tomorrow for trade deal talks.
Been in a meeting all day. As I returned to my office the talk amongst even disinterested colleagues was all about "Boris isn't standing".
What the hell's happened? (sorry, no time to read through hours of posts to unearth the detail!)
Gove announces he's standing. Boris can't get the numbers/doesn't fancy losing because Gove has split the hard core Brexit vote/knows Gove has some dirt on him* Boris announces he's not standing May carries off highly smooth launch and Sourby says the women are coming to clear up the boy's mess (or something along those lines) Meanwhile, Labour's coup on hold while they deal with fall-out from a press conference about anti-semitism in the party at which Labour anti-semites started shouting at an MP.
* delete as appropriate when we know more from tomorrow's Telegraph/Daily Mail
@PolhomeEditor: Labour rebel texts: "Tick tock tick tock." Whatever could that mean?
Labour rebels think that texting actually amounts to doing something? If they'd texted a picture of Corbyn's head on a spike, I might be more impressed. As it is, just more ineffectual Lefty wanking.
Has Eagle bottled it? Or did the PLP bottle backing her?
They think they can still force Corbyn out.
It's a game of who blinks first. If Labour produce a challenger, Corbyn would be like a pig in shit....he could go get the fuck away from Westminster and go to a series of campaign meetings where he is adored.
The pledge dropping re the ECHR is awful. How can she possibly have changed her mind in this space of time?
TBF - as I understand it - the issue isn't the ECHR (which we have existed happily with for 50+ years) but the incorporation of the ECHR into the ECJ's remit and some of the decisions that the ECJ has been making.
On leaving the EU, the ECJ's view no longer applies - we go back to being able to ignore the ECHR if we see fit (I think)
Hence, why spend the political capital taking down something that will resolve itself in 2 years anyway
hezza going postal about boris.... hated hearing every word...
Hezza is just awful - he can't resist getting very rude and personal. I've had more than enough of him already.
Heseltine was the Boris of his day, perhaps it's bringing all the bad memories back!
Heseltine actually achieved things. There should be statues to him built in Docklands and elsewhere.
Boris has two outstanding attributes: he can write and speak well, and he can play the fool. There's no heft to him, no substance. He's SeanT with a political career.
Heseltine did achieve things but he never achieved his ultimate aim. By bowing out early Boris still leaves himself in with a future chance of the top job.
Gove has saved Boris from himself. But he's not finished - he can take a job in the new government and develop a track record mof running a department. Theresa May is 59.
Tim Montgomerie ن @montie · 24h24 hours ago Tim Montgomerie ن Retweeted Tim Montgomerie ن Just to clarify - my earlier Tweet (https://twitter.com/montie/status/748097431200477186 …) was an endorsement of the man, not of his leadership bid. I'm backing Boris.
I just don't understand the sudden enthusiasm for May.Unprincipled on the referendum,terrible record on non-EU immigration,13000 foreign criminals allowed to remain in the UK ,appalling deterioration in security and standards in the Prison service, snoopers charter,knee jerk and inconsistent reactions on banning people from the UK etc .I just cannot believe the Tory rank and file will go for her with all this baggage.
Rowing back on her pledge re ECHR. Hiding during the campaign. She claimed she'd been out making the cases for Remain. I've not seen a single report re her doing this.
The more I consider her - the more I don't trust her. She's been playing silly buggers for months and months. Her anti-immigration speech was a clear leadership bid way back when, then she jumped to Remain. It's all too much of a game re her career.
I can write-off some triangulation/positioning - but she's far too inconsistent.
Weren't you ready to vote for Boris just a few hours ago?
Well, he's not available and I'm on record of wanting Gove to run. I'm delighted he is now.
Well my point is that you were ready to vote got Boris despite him being as inconsistent, or more, than May. Gove is pretty inconsistent too. He has said on many, many occasions that he wouldn't run for the leadership and that he would make for a poor leader. Now he is doing and saying the opposite. Not exactly a great start, add the fact that it's probably Osborne pulling the strings and I'm not sure how it makes sense to vote for Boris/Gove while saying that May is inconsistent.
I can see May treating Art 50 just like Dave did with Heathrow.
Never making a decision, always delaying.
But May has promised to respect the vote. Difficult to row back from that.
I guess what she could do is: try to negotiate with Europe on Free Movement, get some emergency brake inside the EU, then return with that, and call an election. Where she would likely win.
Big Ask, tho. However the EU is freaked by our potential departure....
shes setting up a Department for Brexit with a Leaver at the helm, be difficult to row back from that I would have thought, her words this morning Brexit is Brexit, clear majority, high turnout, no wriggle room
Remainers hoping for a last minute reprieve will almost certainly be disappointed, but I wouldn't take comments or plans made right now as gospel. Only fools, the deluded and those who just don't care would suggest not brexiting now, not respecting the will of the people. Even the LDs are only saying they want to rejoin, officially.
The question would be would there be any rolling back in the next few months, assuming article 50 is not declared soon, which would given an opportunity to Remain after all. Something significant would have to change to make that viable, where it is not now.
I would back at almost any odds that that will not happen, it requires too much contrivance and coincidental occurrences lining up, but everyone now needs to appear on board with leaving even if they were remainers,so they can survive long enough to take advantage should the improbable occur and an opportunity to remain after all emerges.
The EU member states would also want to see some sort of roadmap ahead. The uncertainty destabilises them more than the UK.
Can't have the UK dithering for a year whether or not we're leaving.
I honestly think it will be May vs Leadsom. Andrea has real momentum and with Gove you get the impression he's throwing himself at all the competition to help clear the path for her.
If Leadsom continues in the same vein I can see the membership warming to her over May but she is still relatively untested at this stage.
What a crock of shit. People are really losing their heads over this.
I blame the Jews.
You belong back in the Labour party ;-)
Southam is possibly the most insightful and clued in left leaning posters here. I always invariably read his output.....although he sometimes likes to pander a little bit too much to the pb Tories...but you can't have everything.
Southam is a great poster. I have the utmost respect for him.
My post was just some playful banter about the state of Labour today, I like to think he would understand the joke.
Has Eagle bottled it? Or did the PLP bottle backing her?
They think they can still force Corbyn out.
It's a game of who blinks first. If Labour produce a challenger, Corbyn would be like a pig in shit....he could go get the fuck away from Westminster and go to a series of campaign meetings where he is adored.
I'm not complaining - Britain just Brexited. I'm like a pig in the proverbial. BUT as I have always said, a member of the Cameron inner-circle becoming PM is a bad thing for Britain. It's a no change candidate, and in or out of the EU, it means a Britain still in decline, still pursuing an authoritarian internationalist agenda against the wishes of the people, and still joining up to every US invasion that is going. Anyone who attends COBRA (ffs) meetings is a big red flag to me. We need fresh people with fresh ideas.
I honestly think it will be May vs Leadsom. Andrea has real momentum and with Gove you get the impression he's throwing himself at all the competition to help clear the path for her.
If Leadsom continues in the same vein I can see the membership warming to her over May but she is still relatively untested at this stage.
Agreed. And when it goes to party members, Leadsom wins.
I honestly think it will be May vs Leadsom. Andrea has real momentum and with Gove you get the impression he's throwing himself at all the competition to help clear the path for her.
If that is really his plan, and maybe it is, slightly disappointing that he didn't announce he was withdrawing his name at 11:59 this morning
I honestly think it will be May vs Leadsom. Andrea has real momentum and with Gove you get the impression he's throwing himself at all the competition to help clear the path for her.
If Leadsom continues in the same vein I can see the membership warming to her over May but she is still relatively untested at this stage.
I like Leadsom. Gove would be fine. With May I'm just not sure she'd deliver.
hezza going postal about boris.... hated hearing every word...
Hezza is just awful - he can't resist getting very rude and personal. I've had more than enough of him already.
Heseltine was the Boris of his day, perhaps it's bringing all the bad memories back!
Heseltine actually achieved things. There should be statues to him built in Docklands and elsewhere.
Boris has two outstanding attributes: he can write and speak well, and he can play the fool. There's no heft to him, no substance. He's SeanT with a political career.
lol. I've suffered worse comparisons. I'm a better writer than him tho.
The question is where will statues to you be built? And for services to what?
The pledge dropping re the ECHR is awful. How can she possibly have changed her mind in this space of time?
TBF - as I understand it - the issue isn't the ECHR (which we have existed happily with for 50+ years) but the incorporation of the ECHR into the ECJ's remit and some of the decisions that the ECJ has been making.
On leaving the EU, the ECJ's view no longer applies - we go back to being able to ignore the ECHR if we see fit (I think)
Hence, why spend the political capital taking down something that will resolve itself in 2 years anyway
Yes it was the charter of fundamental rights that was incorporated into Lisbon that causes all of the issues. We are free to ignore Strasbourg's decisions if it is incompatible with UK law, we can't do that for ECJ decision. It is massive judicial overreach by the EU. We have no need to leave the ECHR now.
I honestly think it will be May vs Leadsom. Andrea has real momentum and with Gove you get the impression he's throwing himself at all the competition to help clear the path for her.
If Leadsom continues in the same vein I can see the membership warming to her over May but she is still relatively untested at this stage.
hezza going postal about boris.... hated hearing every word...
Hezza is just awful - he can't resist getting very rude and personal. I've had more than enough of him already.
Heseltine was the Boris of his day, perhaps it's bringing all the bad memories back!
Heseltine actually achieved things. There should be statues to him built in Docklands and elsewhere.
Boris has two outstanding attributes: he can write and speak well, and he can play the fool. There's no heft to him, no substance. He's SeanT with a political career.
The pledge dropping re the ECHR is awful. How can she possibly have changed her mind in this space of time?
TBF - as I understand it - the issue isn't the ECHR (which we have existed happily with for 50+ years) but the incorporation of the ECHR into the ECJ's remit and some of the decisions that the ECJ has been making.
On leaving the EU, the ECJ's view no longer applies - we go back to being able to ignore the ECHR if we see fit (I think)
Hence, why spend the political capital taking down something that will resolve itself in 2 years anyway
Yes it was the charter of fundamental rights that was incorporated into Lisbon that causes all of the issues. We are free to ignore Strasbourg's decisions if it is incompatible with UK law, we can't do that for ECJ decision. It is massive judicial overreach by the EU. We have no need to leave the ECHR now.
But until we leave the EU we are still under the ECHR and ECJ.
I honestly think it will be May vs Leadsom. Andrea has real momentum and with Gove you get the impression he's throwing himself at all the competition to help clear the path for her.
If Leadsom continues in the same vein I can see the membership warming to her over May but she is still relatively untested at this stage.
OK, genuine question: who will Cameron and Osborne support? It should be May, surely? I'm possibly overthinking this .
It's an interesting question.
I expect they'll see Gove as the continuity Cameron candidate in all areas except brexit.
I also think they rate Gove as smarter than May.
Plus, he did just knife the bastard.
All in all they'll be reasonably content with either, but probably would prefer Gove - the lesser bastard - as the better option to protect their legacy and prevent the tories lurching to the reactionary right.
Looking at the Sunday Times/Panelbase poll the big thing that jumps out is that although it is tight with a headline figure of 52/48 ABC1s are more likely ot vote Yes than C2DEs which is an inversion of the IndyRef (both demographics are a Yes vote).
I think ABC1's were 60/40 in favour of No last time out.
hezza going postal about boris.... hated hearing every word...
Hezza is just awful - he can't resist getting very rude and personal. I've had more than enough of him already.
Heseltine was the Boris of his day, perhaps it's bringing all the bad memories back!
Heseltine actually achieved things. There should be statues to him built in Docklands and elsewhere.
Boris has two outstanding attributes: he can write and speak well, and he can play the fool. There's no heft to him, no substance. He's SeanT with a political career.
Not sure you can accuse him of having no heft.
Who? BoJo?
You can. very easily. Just look at the way he handled the referendum, yet along the aftermath.
Comments
What the hell's happened? (sorry, no time to read through hours of posts to unearth the detail!)
SouthamObserver was being ironic - I've no reason to believe that he actually meant what he posted literally.
http://www.bradenton.com/news/politics-government/article86827007.html
Boris has two outstanding attributes: he can write and speak well, and he can play the fool. There's no heft to him, no substance. He's SeanT with a political career.
Has Eagle bottled it? Or did the PLP bottle backing her?
Which may still be in October.
Gove is toxic. The others non-entities.
We have a second woman PM. Another Tory. Another Thatcher?
Hahahaha. From the man who knifed Maggie? They're both blond prima donnas.
She didn't have a sense of humour either.
Tory Women PMs = 2
Labour Women PMs = 0*
* until party's extinction
Boris can't get the numbers/doesn't fancy losing because Gove has split the hard core Brexit vote/knows Gove has some dirt on him*
Boris announces he's not standing
May carries off highly smooth launch and Sourby says the women are coming to clear up the boy's mess (or something along those lines)
Meanwhile, Labour's coup on hold while they deal with fall-out from a press conference about anti-semitism in the party at which Labour anti-semites started shouting at an MP.
* delete as appropriate when we know more from tomorrow's Telegraph/Daily Mail
@montie: Not a good look for Michael Gove https://t.co/VkuPMG48OM
On leaving the EU, the ECJ's view no longer applies - we go back to being able to ignore the ECHR if we see fit (I think)
Hence, why spend the political capital taking down something that will resolve itself in 2 years anyway
Is the line still that Jeremy is not going anywhere?
Corbyn source: "Yes. Although he's going to the Somme tomorrow."
Corbyns playing the PLP for fools.
like this?
Tim Montgomerie ن @montie · 24h24 hours ago
Tim Montgomerie ن Retweeted Tim Montgomerie ن
Just to clarify - my earlier Tweet (https://twitter.com/montie/status/748097431200477186 …) was an endorsement of the man, not of his leadership bid. I'm backing Boris.
Can't have the UK dithering for a year whether or not we're leaving.
https://twitter.com/LouiseMensch/status/748494513388265472
If Leadsom continues in the same vein I can see the membership warming to her over May but she is still relatively untested at this stage.
My post was just some playful banter about the state of Labour today, I like to think he would understand the joke.
Linklaters on Brexit: "There is unlikely to be any downturn in work and since uncertainty spawns disputes, there may even be an increase"
Now that would have been sublime betrayal.
Clinton 48 .. Trump 42 .. PPP
Clinton 42 .. Trump 32 .. Ipsos/Reuters
Clinton 39 .. Trump 43 .. Rasmussen ..
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.105756340
Lib Dem/UKIP long term target list.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19mKbV0UnIbX_lbiinKiquP0ghiFpsMl0owUO6_TJyzI/htmlview?usp=sharing&sle=true
Clinton 25 .. Trump 19 .. Falconer 56
One of the two major parties is destroying itself in plain sight.
I expect they'll see Gove as the continuity Cameron candidate in all areas except brexit.
I also think they rate Gove as smarter than May.
Plus, he did just knife the bastard.
All in all they'll be reasonably content with either, but probably would prefer Gove - the lesser bastard - as the better option to protect their legacy and prevent the tories lurching to the reactionary right.
But who really knows?
Looking at the Sunday Times/Panelbase poll the big thing that jumps out is that although it is tight with a headline figure of 52/48 ABC1s are more likely ot vote Yes than C2DEs which is an inversion of the IndyRef (both demographics are a Yes vote).
I think ABC1's were 60/40 in favour of No last time out.
It has to keep doing this until Corbyn resigns. There is no other way.
You can. very easily. Just look at the way he handled the referendum, yet along the aftermath.
Unless that was meant as a dig at me?