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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On an explosive day the latest CON leader betting and chart

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  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    DanSmith said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Eagle may delay leader bid 'to give Corbyn time to quit': Former shadow minister Angela Eagle looks set to la...

    LOL

    Knows she'll get thrashed. Maybe I'll ask Anthony Joshua to give up his Heavyweight title belt so I can win a match against him too.

    Owen Smith looks more likely now, maybe even Clive Lewis.
    I've had money on Clive Lewis for months, he's more charismatic than Corbyn and would get the support form the Momentum left. He is ruthless with no principles, it's all just an act.
    Is he the ex-BBCer who claimed racism against him? TBH, I'm going snowblind with the blizzard of contenders.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited June 2016
    Speaking of Israel-Gate - Israel’s former foreign minister has joined in the criticism of Corbyn over his choice of words at the launch of Labour’s antisemitism report earlier today.

    https://twitter.com/Tzipi_Livni/status/748529062075842560?ref_src=twsrc^tfw
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    MTimT said:

    Lowlander said:

    kle4 said:

    Lowlander said:

    Haha, they've even taken the time to add the new flag.

    https://twitter.com/HuffPostUKCom/status/748517808384970754

    Gods, our flag looks like crap without that Scottish blue
    To be honest, I think the simplest way to do it is to change the Blue for Welsh green.

    http://s29.postimg.org/lv7b06wt3/uk_wales.jpg
    That could work. But I think we should have the dragon too.
    How about the red crosses of St Andrew and St George on a white background but top left quadrant all white with the Welsh dragon in red centred in that quadrant?
    I think we're going to need a national phone in to pick this. There are some good contenders appearing. :)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    DanSmith said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Eagle may delay leader bid 'to give Corbyn time to quit': Former shadow minister Angela Eagle looks set to la...

    LOL

    Knows she'll get thrashed. Maybe I'll ask Anthony Joshua to give up his Heavyweight title belt so I can win a match against him too.

    Owen Smith looks more likely now, maybe even Clive Lewis.
    Owen who?
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    If May does become PM, it will be the first time anyone has moved directly from the Home Office to No 10 since 1855 (Lord Palmerston).

    Maybe we can look forward to gunboats up the Seine if the negotiations stall?
    I would suggest that we avoid France. Anywhere else in EU probably okay
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,783

    Pleased to see my excellent MP Nus Ghani (a Leaver, since you ask) is backing Theresa May.

    Southern mafia

  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    AndyJS said:

    What happened to Nicky Morgan's leadership bid?

    Died on the starting blocks. Now supporting Gove.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,855
    FF43 said:

    Lowlander said:

    Just caught up on FMQs and it was very much a repetition of yesterday's brutal destruction of Ruth Davidson and her only policy.

    https://twitter.com/ScoPoliticsNews/status/748523070021902336

    After being ripped to shreds by the First Minister, Kezia had a good go at Ruth, who was subdued throughout the whole session. I almost felt sorry for Ruth. Almost.

    There's no doubt Brexit has hugely damaged Davidson and the Conservative cause in Scotland generally, even though some other people voted Leave. It is her colleagues in London that are doing the separation. It's the inverse of the SNP paradox (why are you so keen on the EU if you want to get out of the UK?). In the case of the Tories: why are you so keen on the British Union if you want to destroy the European one?
    I feel a bit sorry for her. She seems a very able politician, and if Remain had won she was surely well placed to take many paths which might prove advantageous. As it is with Remain losing, the work she's done may be seriously undercut.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,662

    Pleased to see my excellent MP Nus Ghani (a Leaver, since you ask) is backing Theresa May.

    He was backing Boris 5 minutes ago !
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Jobabob said:

    Jobabob said:

    tyson said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Eagle may delay leader bid 'to give Corbyn time to quit': Former shadow minister Angela Eagle looks set to la...

    LOL

    Knows she'll get thrashed. Maybe I'll ask Anthony Joshua to give up his Heavyweight title belt so I can win a match against him too.

    I cannot understand the Labour leadership betting- why is McDonnell out to 14's? Emily Thornberry was 6-1 yesterday but she has moved out a wee tad today- to 360-1 no less. That still looks short to me.

    My man Clive Lewis is also on 14's and represents the other left contender.

    Clearly, the Labour party are completely clueless about the next step....both left and right.


    The market is a portmanteau of at least 3 scenarios:

    1) A direct challenge to Corbyn
    2) A Corbyn resignation and a "normal" election
    3) Corbyn's successor in a "Labour" Party reduced to 40 MPs as the rest break away
    Indeed. Nicely unpacked. It's a fool's market because too many balls are in the air at once.
    They're the best markets! I've got 50+ on Smith, 65+ on Nandy and 55+ on McDonnell in the last few days as people have erroneously discounted one or more of the above scenarios.
    Great odds. The Smith bet is especially good. Well done.
    I've laid Benn at 10, Chuka at 20, etc. Kinda the reverse! Pick off the one who is to short...
  • LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941
    Jobabob said:

    BUNKER READ THIS: Do a deal with Lewis and let Corbyn go.

    Israel-gate means Corbyn is eventually done for anyway – the Israeli Labor party comment makes it more likely that the UK party could suspend him.

    Corbyn controls the NEC.

    Nothing else really matters in terms of external factors. The only hope Labour have for continued existence is that Corbyn himself decides. No-one will decide for him.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    SCottish Indy Noodling

    The problem with doing polling in Scotland is how much people lie/misremember. From the Daily Mail Survation poll

    Q4. In the Scottish Parliament Election of 2016, 56% of people voted, while 44% of people did not vote. Thinking back to the Holyrood Election in May 2016, can you remember whether or not you voted in that specific election?


    Voted: 78%
    Did Not Vote: 18%
    Can't Remeber: 4%

    Lol
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,450
    edited June 2016
    AndyJS said:

    I thought Angela Eagle was nailed on as challenger to Corbyn but apparently that isn't the case now.

    As some of us have been explaining for days, Jezza holds all the aces. He has the Unions, he has the membership and his name will go on the ballot because he's party leader.

    Until Jezza himself decides he's had enough he's going nowhere. All the PLP have done (and particularly those shadow cabinet members who resigned on Sunday and Monday) is make utter fools of themselves and ensured we don't have an Opposition at this critical time.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Jobabob said:

    BUNKER READ THIS: Do a deal with Lewis and let Corbyn go.

    Israel-gate means Corbyn is eventually done for anyway – the Israeli Labor party comment makes it more likely that the UK party could suspend him.

    Since when was the British Labour party a sub-committee of the Israeli Labor party, or any other foreign entity?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,709
    Jobabob said:

    tyson said:

    DanSmith said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Eagle may delay leader bid 'to give Corbyn time to quit': Former shadow minister Angela Eagle looks set to la...

    LOL

    Knows she'll get thrashed. Maybe I'll ask Anthony Joshua to give up his Heavyweight title belt so I can win a match against him too.

    Owen Smith looks more likely now, maybe even Clive Lewis.
    Clive Lewis has charisma in spades, and just looks like he could be a winner, especially with a back story fighting in Afghanistan. If the next leader is a lefty, as is likely judging by the membership, at least let it be one who looks like he could win.

    I think Lewis from the Left is a good candidate and I have no idea why the bunker hasn't struck a deal with the PLP by now whereby they would guarantee him enough nominations if Corbyn stood down.

    That, to me, is the best compromise to break the deadlock.
    Yup, why is this hard?
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Lowlander said:

    Lowlander said:

    kle4 said:

    Lowlander said:

    Haha, they've even taken the time to add the new flag.

    https://twitter.com/HuffPostUKCom/status/748517808384970754

    Gods, our flag looks like crap without that Scottish blue
    To be honest, I think the simplest way to do it is to change the Blue for Welsh green.

    http://s29.postimg.org/lv7b06wt3/uk_wales.jpg
    That could work. But I think we should have the dragon too.
    I guess that would emphasise the link between Game of Thrones and UK politics.

    Chaos isn't a pit.
    Chaos is a ladder.
    Many who try to climb it fail and never get to try again.
    The fall breaks them.
    And some are given a chance to climb, but they refuse.
    They cling to the realm or the gods or love.
    Illusions.
    Only the ladder is real.
    The climb is all there is.
    There's some good writing in them there books.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,161
    John_M said:

    AndyJS said:

    What happened to Nicky Morgan's leadership bid?

    Died on the starting blocks. Now supporting Gove.
    NiMo had NoMo?

    I'll get my coat.........
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Pulpstar said:

    Pleased to see my excellent MP Nus Ghani (a Leaver, since you ask) is backing Theresa May.

    He was backing Boris 5 minutes ago !
    She.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Lowlander said:

    kle4 said:

    Lowlander said:

    Haha, they've even taken the time to add the new flag.

    https://twitter.com/HuffPostUKCom/status/748517808384970754

    Gods, our flag looks like crap without that Scottish blue
    The St David cross is black and gold, and that works well in the Jack.
    Kippers won't accept using St David's cross. They won't be able to chant "there ain't no black in the Union Jack" anymore.
    We could add the cross of St Piran to ensure that there is. Kernow!
  • LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941

    Speaking of Israel-Gate - Israel’s former foreign minister has joined in the criticism of Corbyn over his choice of words at the launch of Labour’s antisemitism report earlier today.

    https://twitter.com/Tzipi_Livni/status/748529062075842560?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

    You have to picture that in a backroom at Labour HQ, Seamas was saying "we need to get this report out there, even though its a whitewash, its best to bury it. With all the news at the moment we can dump it off and no-one will even notice its come out. What could possibly go wrong..."
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,662

    Jobabob said:

    Jobabob said:

    tyson said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Eagle may delay leader bid 'to give Corbyn time to quit': Former shadow minister Angela Eagle looks set to la...

    LOL

    Knows she'll get thrashed. Maybe I'll ask Anthony Joshua to give up his Heavyweight title belt so I can win a match against him too.

    I cannot understand the Labour leadership betting- why is McDonnell out to 14's? Emily Thornberry was 6-1 yesterday but she has moved out a wee tad today- to 360-1 no less. That still looks short to me.

    My man Clive Lewis is also on 14's and represents the other left contender.

    Clearly, the Labour party are completely clueless about the next step....both left and right.


    The market is a portmanteau of at least 3 scenarios:

    1) A direct challenge to Corbyn
    2) A Corbyn resignation and a "normal" election
    3) Corbyn's successor in a "Labour" Party reduced to 40 MPs as the rest break away
    Indeed. Nicely unpacked. It's a fool's market because too many balls are in the air at once.
    They're the best markets! I've got 50+ on Smith, 65+ on Nandy and 55+ on McDonnell in the last few days as people have erroneously discounted one or more of the above scenarios.
    Great odds. The Smith bet is especially good. Well done.
    I've laid Benn at 10, Chuka at 20, etc. Kinda the reverse! Pick off the one who is to short...
    https://postimg.org/image/xx9zthn2f/
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Speaking of Israel-Gate - Israel’s former foreign minister has joined in the criticism of Corbyn over his choice of words at the launch of Labour’s antisemitism report earlier today.

    https://twitter.com/Tzipi_Livni/status/748529062075842560?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

    :lol:
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,999
    AndyJS said:

    What happened to Nicky Morgan's leadership bid?

    She woke up and found it was all a dream.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Jobabob said:

    BUNKER READ THIS: Do a deal with Lewis and let Corbyn go.

    Israel-gate means Corbyn is eventually done for anyway – the Israeli Labor party comment makes it more likely that the UK party could suspend him.

    Since when was anti-Semitism unpopular with Guardian readers?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,855
    GIN1138 said:

    AndyJS said:

    I thought Angela Eagle was nailed on as challenger to Corbyn but apparently that isn't the case now.

    As some of us have been explaining for days, Jezza holds all the aces. He has the Unions, he has the membership and his name will go on the ballot because he's party leader.

    Until Jezza himself decides he's had enough he's going nowhere. All the PLP have done (and particularly those shadow cabinet members who resigned on Sunday and Monday) is make utter fools of themselves and ensured we don't have an Opposition at this critical time.
    But how does his cause benefit from this mess? Is there no one acceptable to Corbynistas who could get the required nominations to stand as leader? That must be preferable to this madhouse.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,922
    Lowlander said:

    Speaking of Israel-Gate - Israel’s former foreign minister has joined in the criticism of Corbyn over his choice of words at the launch of Labour’s antisemitism report earlier today.

    https://twitter.com/Tzipi_Livni/status/748529062075842560?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

    You have to picture that in a backroom at Labour HQ, Seamas was saying "we need to get this report out there, even though its a whitewash, its best to bury it. With all the news at the moment we can dump it off and no-one will even notice its come out. What could possibly go wrong..."
    Somehow I doubt we can chalk this one up as a gaffe. He must have known how incendiary that comparison would be.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822

    Pleased to see my excellent MP Nus Ghani (a Leaver, since you ask) is backing Theresa May.

    Southern mafia

    Not entirely. Maria Caulfield, next door in Lewes (the nemesis of Norman Baker), is a very strong Leaver, but is backing Stephen Crabb. As I've said many times, this Leave/Remain dividing line will dissolve quite quickly, now the decision has been made.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,295
    Incidentally, and for accuracy, Gove attended a private school (Robert Gordon's College) as a scholarship boy. The other candidates were state educated.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,662
    AndyJS said:

    What happened to Nicky Morgan's leadership bid?

    Found out Tim wasn't resigning.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,340

    Pleased to see my excellent MP Nus Ghani (a Leaver, since you ask) is backing Theresa May.

    Southern mafia

    Not entirely. Maria Caulfield, next door in Lewes (the nemesis of Norman Baker), is a very strong Leaver, but is backing Stephen Crabb. As I've said many times, this Leave/Remain dividing line will dissolve quite quickly, now the decision has been made.
    Yes, I think we're looking at a pretty united party once this all shakes out. Especially now that the stop Boris campaign has succeeded.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,580
    edited June 2016
    What happened at 4 o'clock? The pound just dropped a cent and a half in the last 15 minutes.

    Edit: a cent and a half.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @euanmccolm: when corbyn does the inevitable, i expect burnham to insist he was just about to demand it. he's boris-like in his cowardice.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    JohnO said:

    Incidentally, and for accuracy, Gove attended a private school (Robert Gordon's College) as a scholarship boy. The other candidates were state educated.

    true, he was state educated up until then, he has a good backstory though which he'll need given his likeability factor with certain sections of the populus.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    MTimT said:

    Lowlander said:

    kle4 said:

    Lowlander said:

    Haha, they've even taken the time to add the new flag.

    https://twitter.com/HuffPostUKCom/status/748517808384970754

    Gods, our flag looks like crap without that Scottish blue
    To be honest, I think the simplest way to do it is to change the Blue for Welsh green.

    http://s29.postimg.org/lv7b06wt3/uk_wales.jpg
    That could work. But I think we should have the dragon too.
    How about the red crosses of St Andrew and St George on a white background but top left quadrant all white with the Welsh dragon in red centred in that quadrant?
    I think we're going to need a national phone in to pick this. There are some good contenders appearing. :)
    I like this one as well:

    http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2013/12/05/article-2518570-19D7C12500000578-606_634x378.jpg
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,709
    kle4 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    AndyJS said:

    I thought Angela Eagle was nailed on as challenger to Corbyn but apparently that isn't the case now.

    As some of us have been explaining for days, Jezza holds all the aces. He has the Unions, he has the membership and his name will go on the ballot because he's party leader.

    Until Jezza himself decides he's had enough he's going nowhere. All the PLP have done (and particularly those shadow cabinet members who resigned on Sunday and Monday) is make utter fools of themselves and ensured we don't have an Opposition at this critical time.
    But how does his cause benefit from this mess? Is there no one acceptable to Corbynistas who could get the required nominations to stand as leader? That must be preferable to this madhouse.
    Imagine being so shit at politics you can't even lose.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Mrs JackW has "advised" me that the full force of the Jacobite hordes should be unleashed in the cause of May.

    I am assured that this historic endorsement has nothing whatsoever, in any way, shape or form at all so help my bank balance, to do with the Home Secretary's affinity to nifty footwear and plenty of it.

    More that Mrs JackW is firmly of the belief that the Supreme Female Triumvirate of HM Queen, Prime Minister May and The Great She Shoe-Woman must prevail to ensure that the weak and puny male of the species knows its place ....

    I certainly do !! :astonished:
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,999
    Lowlander said:

    kle4 said:

    Lowlander said:

    Haha, they've even taken the time to add the new flag.

    https://twitter.com/HuffPostUKCom/status/748517808384970754

    Gods, our flag looks like crap without that Scottish blue
    To be honest, I think the simplest way to do it is to change the Blue for Welsh green.

    http://s29.postimg.org/lv7b06wt3/uk_wales.jpg
    Just replace Scottish blue with Yorkshire blue and add the white rose in the first quadrant.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    What happened at 4 o'clock? The pound just dropped nearly 2 cents in 15 minutes.

    Carney announced more QE
  • Scott_P said:

    What happened at 4 o'clock? The pound just dropped nearly 2 cents in 15 minutes.

    Carney announced more QE
    Ah, cheers.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,783

    What happened at 4 o'clock? The pound just dropped a cent and a half in the last 15 minutes.

    Edit: a cent and a half.

    Has Carney started speaking?

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @kiranstacey: "We were wrong. It will be even worse than we said." https://t.co/w2TXlFbzuU
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/06/always-defended-michael-gove-met/

    Old piece, but I enjoyed it (The Speccie have just reposted it, I'm not on the trawl for anti-Gove stuff).
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Woolly by name, woolly by inclination
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,713
    JohnO said:

    Incidentally, and for accuracy, Gove attended a private school (Robert Gordon's College) as a scholarship boy. The other candidates were state educated.

    Mr O

    sorry to raise a point of order at a time of grief, but I believe we have an honour bet of £25 ( donated to site ) on GO being next leader of the Conservatives\PM.

    If you're happy to accept he wont, the donate button is up and running atm.

    If not I'm sure your arguments will cheer me up in these difficult times :-)

  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    RodCrosby said:

    Jobabob said:

    RodCrosby said:

    What a crock of shit. People are really losing their heads over this.
    The least surprising response of the day.
    Some MP no-one's heard of is accused by someone else of being in league with those against Corbyn. The whole world seems to be against Corbyn at the moment, so she's hardly being singled out.

    She squeaks "But I'm Jewish!" [did anyone know or care?] and because Corbyn didn't "intervene" in some ruck going on in the audience, he's now AntiSemite-in-Chief.

    Total crock.
    :+1:
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    I see the FSTE 250 is up 5.76% to 16198.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Scott_P said:
    Talking down the economy again. It's time Carney left.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Alistair said:

    SCottish Indy Noodling

    The problem with doing polling in Scotland is how much people lie/misremember. From the Daily Mail Survation poll

    Q4. In the Scottish Parliament Election of 2016, 56% of people voted, while 44% of people did not vote. Thinking back to the Holyrood Election in May 2016, can you remember whether or not you voted in that specific election?


    Voted: 78%
    Did Not Vote: 18%
    Can't Remeber: 4%

    Lol

    Were they lying ? Or, was the sample complete rubbish ? The problem with pollsters is that 25% or so people can be got hold of. They are alos the ones who do not, by and large, vote. It was to the SNP's credit that in September 2014 , they were able to get many of them out to vote.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,922
    Scott_P said:

    @kiranstacey: "We were wrong. It will be even worse than we said." https://t.co/w2TXlFbzuU

    Remember what Andrea Leadsom said?

    Mark Carney’s warning that Britain faces a recession if it leaves the EU is “nonsense” and a “totally unjustifiable” intervention, a Government minister has said.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/15/bank-of-england-governors-brexit-warning-is-nonsense-says-minise/
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,783

    Scott_P said:

    @kiranstacey: "We were wrong. It will be even worse than we said." https://t.co/w2TXlFbzuU

    Remember what Andrea Leadsom said?

    Mark Carney’s warning that Britain faces a recession if it leaves the EU is “nonsense” and a “totally unjustifiable” intervention, a Government minister has said.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/15/bank-of-england-governors-brexit-warning-is-nonsense-says-minise/

    And what did Gove say about experts?

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    PlatoSaid said:

    I see the FSTE 250 is up 5.76% to 16198.

    @ByRobDavies: Leave triumphalism over FTSE rise is misplaced. Markets are anticipating free cash from BoE stimulus designed to ease slowdown.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    Scott_P said:

    @kiranstacey: "We were wrong. It will be even worse than we said." https://t.co/w2TXlFbzuU

    Remember what Andrea Leadsom said?

    Mark Carney’s warning that Britain faces a recession if it leaves the EU is “nonsense” and a “totally unjustifiable” intervention, a Government minister has said.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/15/bank-of-england-governors-brexit-warning-is-nonsense-says-minise/
    A material slowing in growth != recession.

    I think he's been too upbeat and Leadsom was wrong. I'm still taking the IMF final report as most likely outcome for 2017. -0.8%.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,768
    GIN1138 said:

    AndyJS said:

    I thought Angela Eagle was nailed on as challenger to Corbyn but apparently that isn't the case now.

    As some of us have been explaining for days, Jezza holds all the aces. He has the Unions, he has the membership and his name will go on the ballot because he's party leader.

    Until Jezza himself decides he's had enough he's going nowhere. All the PLP have done (and particularly those shadow cabinet members who resigned on Sunday and Monday) is make utter fools of themselves and ensured we don't have an Opposition at this critical time.
    Spot on

    Last month, Labour become the largest party in the local elections. This was an improvement on 2012 ~(EICIPM's high point)

    The Corbyn is voter repellent just doesn't stand up to scrutiny compared to Brown/EICIPM at least.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,713
    Scott_P said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    I see the FSTE 250 is up 5.76% to 16198.

    @ByRobDavies: Leave triumphalism over FTSE rise is misplaced. Markets are anticipating free cash from BoE stimulus designed to ease slowdown.
    so markets are anticipating a boost in demand. Thats why they rise.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,161
    Scott_P said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    I see the FSTE 250 is up 5.76% to 16198.

    @ByRobDavies: Leave triumphalism over FTSE rise is misplaced. Markets are anticipating free cash from BoE stimulus designed to ease slowdown.
    There's always a 'silver' lining, isn't there :p
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Carney has been a terrible Governor of the BoE.

  • GravitationGravitation Posts: 287
    Anybody remember the days when the most interesting thing that happened in politics was the 10pm YouGov poll?
  • John_N4John_N4 Posts: 553
    Why did Theresa launch her campaign at RUSI?
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Scott_P said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    I see the FSTE 250 is up 5.76% to 16198.

    @ByRobDavies: Leave triumphalism over FTSE rise is misplaced. Markets are anticipating free cash from BoE stimulus designed to ease slowdown.
    Except the rises yesterday were matched by a rise in sterling.
  • PaulyPauly Posts: 897
    Scott_P said:
    That is disgracefully divisive. As bad as turning away gay people from a cake shop - political persecution.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,797
    John_M said:

    Scott_P said:

    @kiranstacey: "We were wrong. It will be even worse than we said." https://t.co/w2TXlFbzuU

    Remember what Andrea Leadsom said?

    Mark Carney’s warning that Britain faces a recession if it leaves the EU is “nonsense” and a “totally unjustifiable” intervention, a Government minister has said.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/15/bank-of-england-governors-brexit-warning-is-nonsense-says-minise/
    A material slowing in growth != recession.

    I think he's been too upbeat and Leadsom was wrong. I'm still taking the IMF final report as most likely outcome for 2017. -0.8%.
    I think this bit is more important

    https://twitter.com/ChrisGiles_/status/748537377962995713

    Yep... All a central bank can really do is print money (or quantitatively ease) or change interest rates... After 8 years of doing the former having sent rates as low as plausible, you're right there isn't much left that you can do....
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,161
    edited June 2016

    Anybody remember the days when the most interesting thing that happened in politics was the 10pm YouGov poll?

    And deciding whether or not it's absence from twitter indicates it was a bad poll for the Blues....
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Jobabob said:

    tyson said:

    DanSmith said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Eagle may delay leader bid 'to give Corbyn time to quit': Former shadow minister Angela Eagle looks set to la...

    LOL

    Knows she'll get thrashed. Maybe I'll ask Anthony Joshua to give up his Heavyweight title belt so I can win a match against him too.

    Owen Smith looks more likely now, maybe even Clive Lewis.
    Clive Lewis has charisma in spades, and just looks like he could be a winner, especially with a back story fighting in Afghanistan. If the next leader is a lefty, as is likely judging by the membership, at least let it be one who looks like he could win.

    I think Lewis from the Left is a good candidate and I have no idea why the bunker hasn't struck a deal with the PLP by now whereby they would guarantee him enough nominations if Corbyn stood down.

    That, to me, is the best compromise to break the deadlock.
    Because only Jeremy can win. I saw one of the ex-whips who resigned being interviewed by BBC News24. I had not realised that they also have not thought what they would should Jeremy not resign. He kept on saying Jeremy should call the Leadership election. Why should he ?

    If they did not have the guts to break away [ as a final possibility ], they should not have started this rebellion.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,896

    Woolly by name, woolly by inclination
    I do prefer a doctor who can make a correct decision. However, getting it wrong is no problem so long as you tell the patient asap, and preferably before they die.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Jobabob said:

    tyson said:

    DanSmith said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Eagle may delay leader bid 'to give Corbyn time to quit': Former shadow minister Angela Eagle looks set to la...

    LOL

    Knows she'll get thrashed. Maybe I'll ask Anthony Joshua to give up his Heavyweight title belt so I can win a match against him too.

    Owen Smith looks more likely now, maybe even Clive Lewis.
    Clive Lewis has charisma in spades, and just looks like he could be a winner, especially with a back story fighting in Afghanistan. If the next leader is a lefty, as is likely judging by the membership, at least let it be one who looks like he could win.

    I think Lewis from the Left is a good candidate and I have no idea why the bunker hasn't struck a deal with the PLP by now whereby they would guarantee him enough nominations if Corbyn stood down.

    That, to me, is the best compromise to break the deadlock.
    Yup, why is this hard?
    If you were in Corbyn's shoes, would you trust the PLP to nominate your candidate?

    Once he stands down, all bets are off.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,161
    Pauly said:

    Scott_P said:
    That is disgracefully divisive. As bad as turning away gay people from a cake shop - political persecution.
    Typical leftie behaviour though....
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited June 2016
    All in all, I think things have gone as well as could be expected today.

    The most credible Tory leadership candidate has said no emergency budget, no snap election, no immediate Article 50, no commitment to achieve surplus this term.

    Carney has shown the BoE's storyboard for the next few months.

    All relatively soothing and grown up. Coupled with most US banks passing the Fed's stress test yesterday, we're likely to end the jittery first week in reasonable shape.

    This is not the time for anything to kick off in the South China Sea *crosses fingers*.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @LOS_Fisher: As a row rages over his competence as Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn mis-spells his own name. https://t.co/eHPlMXnIX4
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,922
    AndyJS said:
    I'd forgotten her father was in the clergy. Yet another similarity with Merkel.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Scott_P said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    I see the FSTE 250 is up 5.76% to 16198.

    @ByRobDavies: Leave triumphalism over FTSE rise is misplaced. Markets are anticipating free cash from BoE stimulus designed to ease slowdown.
    When are going to start quoting Danny Blanchflower on the UK's economic outlook ?
    You've become a joke.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Pauly said:

    Scott_P said:
    That is disgracefully divisive. As bad as turning away gay people from a cake shop - political persecution.
    It is not illegal.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Scott_P said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    I see the FSTE 250 is up 5.76% to 16198.

    @ByRobDavies: Leave triumphalism over FTSE rise is misplaced. Markets are anticipating free cash from BoE stimulus designed to ease slowdown.
    Except the rises yesterday were matched by a rise in sterling.
    Sounds like we need a new an more visionary CoTE rather than a tinkerer, trimmer and pasty tax bungler.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,295
    edited June 2016

    JohnO said:

    Incidentally, and for accuracy, Gove attended a private school (Robert Gordon's College) as a scholarship boy. The other candidates were state educated.

    Mr O

    sorry to raise a point of order at a time of grief, but I believe we have an honour bet of £25 ( donated to site ) on GO being next leader of the Conservatives\PM.

    If you're happy to accept he wont, the donate button is up and running atm.

    If not I'm sure your arguments will cheer me up in these difficult times :-)

    Hi Brookie, Don't recall that - age thing - but as one honourable Bogtrotter to another, I shall cough up at once (though it does mean a few hours on the High Street tomorrow flogging the Big Issue to recoup the loss).
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,784

    AndyJS said:
    I'd forgotten her father was in the clergy. Yet another similarity with Merkel.
    And Brown of course...
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,896
    Scott_P said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    I see the FSTE 250 is up 5.76% to 16198.

    @ByRobDavies: Leave triumphalism over FTSE rise is misplaced. Markets are anticipating free cash from BoE stimulus designed to ease slowdown.

    The value of my investment bond is fluttering about like a pair of lacy panties in a breeze.
  • PaulyPauly Posts: 897
    surbiton said:

    Pauly said:

    Scott_P said:
    That is disgracefully divisive. As bad as turning away gay people from a cake shop - political persecution.
    It is not illegal.
    I never said it was. Individual morality can transcend the statue book.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Even those of us who write about how ruthless the Tory party is are standing, staring, open-mouthed at what has just happened. At 9am this morning, Boris Johnson was pretty sure that he was going to become Prime Minister, or at least make the final two in the leadership contest and be in with a 50-50 chance. Then, at 9.02am an email landed that signalled he was done for, ruined. Johnson and his team had no warning – no call, no text – from Michael Gove that he was about to declare Boris unfit to be Prime Minister and run himself. The explosive email went to reporters direct. Inside Team Boris there was astonishment, although some had suspected something was wrong earlier in the week."

    http://reaction.life/boris-done-cuckoo-nest-plot/
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    Scott_P said:

    @kiranstacey: "We were wrong. It will be even worse than we said." https://t.co/w2TXlFbzuU

    Remember what Andrea Leadsom said?

    Mark Carney’s warning that Britain faces a recession if it leaves the EU is “nonsense” and a “totally unjustifiable” intervention, a Government minister has said.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/15/bank-of-england-governors-brexit-warning-is-nonsense-says-minise/

    And what did Gove say about experts?

    I think he was talking about the predictions of experts, and he was right. The principle that experts are clever men who know all there is to be knowed, is always and everywhere trumped and overridden by the principle that predictions are hard to make, especially about the future. On this site for instance there are at least half a dozen serious experts on political betting: where are their private jets?

    Contrariwise, if you really think financial expertise does entail predictive ability, why not mortgage your house and put the proceeds in an absolute return fund run by an expert? Then, whatever happens, soon you'll be too rich to worry about anything.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Scott_P said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    I see the FSTE 250 is up 5.76% to 16198.

    @ByRobDavies: Leave triumphalism over FTSE rise is misplaced. Markets are anticipating free cash from BoE stimulus designed to ease slowdown.
    When are going to start quoting Danny Blanchflower on the UK's economic outlook ?
    You've become a joke.
    Our CoTE who was more interested in NHS and Academies than sorting out the deficit - and taxing pasties.
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    Am pretty sure there won't be a leadership election. MPs will sit it out for as long as possible, and if Corbyn really won't quit, they'll break away. What's the point of a 3 month election followed by Corbyn winning and the party splitting, may as well do it now.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    PlatoSaid said:

    I see the FSTE 250 is up 5.76% to 16198.

    FTSE is down from over 17000 5 days ago, to 16245 now. That's a drop of 4.5%.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Scott_P said:

    @LOS_Fisher: As a row rages over his competence as Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn mis-spells his own name. https://t.co/eHPlMXnIX4

    Oops = someone in the Labour press office should have seen that and corrected it…!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @jonwalker121: Listen as Labour MP Rob Marris resigns during Commons committee hearing https://t.co/TNT6AKsK6a
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,768
    Charles said:

    Jobabob said:

    tyson said:

    DanSmith said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Eagle may delay leader bid 'to give Corbyn time to quit': Former shadow minister Angela Eagle looks set to la...

    LOL

    Knows she'll get thrashed. Maybe I'll ask Anthony Joshua to give up his Heavyweight title belt so I can win a match against him too.

    Owen Smith looks more likely now, maybe even Clive Lewis.
    Clive Lewis has charisma in spades, and just looks like he could be a winner, especially with a back story fighting in Afghanistan. If the next leader is a lefty, as is likely judging by the membership, at least let it be one who looks like he could win.

    I think Lewis from the Left is a good candidate and I have no idea why the bunker hasn't struck a deal with the PLP by now whereby they would guarantee him enough nominations if Corbyn stood down.

    That, to me, is the best compromise to break the deadlock.
    Yup, why is this hard?
    If you were in Corbyn's shoes, would you trust the PLP to nominate your candidate?

    Once he stands down, all bets are off.
    That is 100% correct.

    Have been saying it since Sunday.

    The PLP takes the members and Jezza for fools
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,896
    RobD said:

    Pauly said:

    Scott_P said:
    That is disgracefully divisive. As bad as turning away gay people from a cake shop - political persecution.
    Typical leftie behaviour though....
    Pubs did it with Alistair Darling at the time of a tax rise IIRC. Of course, brewers are traditionally Tory .....
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,783
    eek said:

    John_M said:

    Scott_P said:

    @kiranstacey: "We were wrong. It will be even worse than we said." https://t.co/w2TXlFbzuU

    Remember what Andrea Leadsom said?

    Mark Carney’s warning that Britain faces a recession if it leaves the EU is “nonsense” and a “totally unjustifiable” intervention, a Government minister has said.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/15/bank-of-england-governors-brexit-warning-is-nonsense-says-minise/
    A material slowing in growth != recession.

    I think he's been too upbeat and Leadsom was wrong. I'm still taking the IMF final report as most likely outcome for 2017. -0.8%.
    I think this bit is more important

    https://twitter.com/ChrisGiles_/status/748537377962995713

    Yep... All a central bank can really do is print money (or quantitatively ease) or change interest rates... After 8 years of doing the former having sent rates as low as plausible, you're right there isn't much left that you can do....

    So that's taxes up, more cuts, less business investment, reduced demand. Just as predicted. But Chancellor Gove or Leadsom has promised that we will have one of this. In fact, taxes will go down and spending will go up - including £350 million a week more for the NHS.

    If Corbyn goes the Tories are in deep trouble.

  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Alistair said:

    SCottish Indy Noodling

    The problem with doing polling in Scotland is how much people lie/misremember. From the Daily Mail Survation poll

    Q4. In the Scottish Parliament Election of 2016, 56% of people voted, while 44% of people did not vote. Thinking back to the Holyrood Election in May 2016, can you remember whether or not you voted in that specific election?


    Voted: 78%
    Did Not Vote: 18%
    Can't Remeber: 4%

    Lol

    Which proves nothing - the pollsters may have difficulty getting hold of people who did not vote - like they did in the Referendum.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    chestnut said:

    Carney has been a terrible Governor of the BoE.

    He played politics during the campaign - that's just not on. His 3 page letter rant was a big doth-protest-too-much red flag.
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,275

    Charles said:

    Jobabob said:

    tyson said:

    DanSmith said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Eagle may delay leader bid 'to give Corbyn time to quit': Former shadow minister Angela Eagle looks set to la...

    LOL

    Knows she'll get thrashed. Maybe I'll ask Anthony Joshua to give up his Heavyweight title belt so I can win a match against him too.

    Owen Smith looks more likely now, maybe even Clive Lewis.
    Clive Lewis has charisma in spades, and just looks like he could be a winner, especially with a back story fighting in Afghanistan. If the next leader is a lefty, as is likely judging by the membership, at least let it be one who looks like he could win.

    I think Lewis from the Left is a good candidate and I have no idea why the bunker hasn't struck a deal with the PLP by now whereby they would guarantee him enough nominations if Corbyn stood down.

    That, to me, is the best compromise to break the deadlock.
    Yup, why is this hard?
    If you were in Corbyn's shoes, would you trust the PLP to nominate your candidate?

    Once he stands down, all bets are off.
    That is 100% correct.

    Have been saying it since Sunday.

    The PLP takes the members and Jezza for fools
    What is the PLP's next move if Jeremy is reelected?
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,554
    Charles said:

    Jobabob said:

    tyson said:

    DanSmith said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Eagle may delay leader bid 'to give Corbyn time to quit': Former shadow minister Angela Eagle looks set to la...

    LOL

    Knows she'll get thrashed. Maybe I'll ask Anthony Joshua to give up his Heavyweight title belt so I can win a match against him too.

    Owen Smith looks more likely now, maybe even Clive Lewis.
    Clive Lewis has charisma in spades, and just looks like he could be a winner, especially with a back story fighting in Afghanistan. If the next leader is a lefty, as is likely judging by the membership, at least let it be one who looks like he could win.

    I think Lewis from the Left is a good candidate and I have no idea why the bunker hasn't struck a deal with the PLP by now whereby they would guarantee him enough nominations if Corbyn stood down.

    That, to me, is the best compromise to break the deadlock.
    Yup, why is this hard?
    If you were in Corbyn's shoes, would you trust the PLP to nominate your candidate?

    Once he stands down, all bets are off.
    If Corbyn stands down, does that not mean that the Harman rule applies (unless Watson also goes)?
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180

    Scott_P said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    I see the FSTE 250 is up 5.76% to 16198.

    @ByRobDavies: Leave triumphalism over FTSE rise is misplaced. Markets are anticipating free cash from BoE stimulus designed to ease slowdown.
    so markets are anticipating a boost in demand. Thats why they rise.
    Indeed - while the £ slides further. Every silver lining has a cloud.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,896
    AndyJS said:

    "Even those of us who write about how ruthless the Tory party is are standing, staring, open-mouthed at what has just happened. At 9am this morning, Boris Johnson was pretty sure that he was going to become Prime Minister, or at least make the final two in the leadership contest and be in with a 50-50 chance. Then, at 9.02am an email landed that signalled he was done for, ruined. Johnson and his team had no warning – no call, no text – from Michael Gove that he was about to declare Boris unfit to be Prime Minister and run himself. The explosive email went to reporters direct. Inside Team Boris there was astonishment, although some had suspected something was wrong earlier in the week."

    http://reaction.life/boris-done-cuckoo-nest-plot/

    Remind me, when did Boris tell Cameron he was going to campaign for Leave?
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    PeterC said:

    Charles said:

    Jobabob said:

    tyson said:

    DanSmith said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Eagle may delay leader bid 'to give Corbyn time to quit': Former shadow minister Angela Eagle looks set to la...

    LOL

    Knows she'll get thrashed. Maybe I'll ask Anthony Joshua to give up his Heavyweight title belt so I can win a match against him too.

    Owen Smith looks more likely now, maybe even Clive Lewis.
    Clive Lewis has charisma in spades, and just looks like he could be a winner, especially with a back story fighting in Afghanistan. If the next leader is a lefty, as is likely judging by the membership, at least let it be one who looks like he could win.

    I think Lewis from the Left is a good candidate and I have no idea why the bunker hasn't struck a deal with the PLP by now whereby they would guarantee him enough nominations if Corbyn stood down.

    That, to me, is the best compromise to break the deadlock.
    Yup, why is this hard?
    If you were in Corbyn's shoes, would you trust the PLP to nominate your candidate?

    Once he stands down, all bets are off.
    That is 100% correct.

    Have been saying it since Sunday.

    The PLP takes the members and Jezza for fools
    What is the PLP's next move if Jeremy is reelected?
    The PLP need to just keep the pressure on him so he resigns, hence not on the ballot. The bunker should accept a deal.
This discussion has been closed.