Market now shows Gove at only 13%, been sliding since the tie up with Osborne came out. If he is to stand any chance now he needs to totally distance himself from Osborne. If he wants to win for sure he should promise to hang Osborne with piano wire.
Market now shows Gove at only 13%, been sliding since the tie up with Osborne came out. If he is to stand any chance now he needs to totally distance himself from Osborne. If he wants to win for sure he should promise to hang Osborne with piano wire.
Market now shows Gove at only 13%, been sliding since the tie up with Osborne came out. If he is to stand any chance now he needs to totally distance himself from Osborne. If he wants to win for sure he should promise to hang Osborne with piano wire.
I'm not a tory, but isn't Gove pretty popular with the members? Seems to me that if he makes the last two he'll have a better chance against May than Boris would have had.
Boris was the darling of the party to many, if not considered a PM. Gove's dirty deed will rebound horribly. The carefully crafted man of principle is shown to be just another grubby hack.
Worse are the constant and various replays of his absolute denials of PM ambitions. "I'm not up to it" .... Rinse and repeat from his rivals.
I think there's also a possibility of a coronation by accident/default as May piles up the votes and the other four contenders vie for a small share of a diminishing pie as the voting rounds progress.
Final Round - May 250 .. A N Other 80 .
I can see this going badly for Mr Gove, I don't see it being a gift for Ms May.
Unless of course Gove is paving the way for Andrea (i.e. he'll pull out an hour before voting on Tuesday and urge all leaver'ers to back Mrs Leadson) We still don't really know what the hell Michael Gove is up to, IMO.
Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me.
There is (IMO, and politics has of late proven itself pretty bonkers) no chance of Gove playing fast and loose enough with grown up politics to be playing that kind of game.
If nothing else, the backlash against his preferred candidate would be huge. Leadsom isn't enough of a character in her own right to withstand it or shrug it off.
All he'd have to say is that he can't get enough support together to make it worthwhile anybody voting for him so he'll be withdrawing his nomination + Suggest that as the last LEAVER standing everyone that way inclined for go for Andrea...
It would be too blatant. I think he wants to be PM.
He can't be, no one will support a serial backstabber for Tory Leader.
I'm not a tory, but isn't Gove pretty popular with the members? Seems to me that if he makes the last two he'll have a better chance against May than Boris would have had.
He was popular with members up to this action against Boris. I would guess that his stature has slumped significantly but if he is the LEAVE candidate vs May that may propel him into a win. Her immigration record and her REMAIN position may be more toxic. But if he has a slot for Osborne that is going to finish his chances.
So the Euros are at the business end when all the minnows and also rans have been sent home. Can the same be said about our political parties? Not quite. Surely Fox and Crabb will not last long but that will drag this out for another week.
Who can best use that week? Well, it seems to me that May is such a front runner that the only real question will be whether a Leave candidate can establish themselves as an even vaguely credible alternative. Of Leadsom and Gove the winner will be the one who can bring enough of the Cameroons onside. Gove chatting up Osborne shows that he fully realises that. My guess is that he will come out second to May but really struggle to beat her head to head with the members.
I missed the fact that Paul Flynn appeared at the despatch box as the oldest MP to do so since Queen Victoria.Odds on Dennis Skinner accepting a similar position such as Minister Without Portfolio?
I missed the fact that Paul Flynn appeared at the despatch box as the oldest MP to do so since Queen Victoria.Odds on Dennis Skinner accepting a similar position such as Minister Without Portfolio?
He was surprisingly good value - made me laugh at least. Good man!
That would be too hilarious for words. Even better if Ozzy stays on, and he and Gove go for EU-membership in all but name. The reaction of the anti-Osborne Leaver crowd on here would be a sight to behold. Please, God, let it happen!
I thought Gove was bright...this is a very dim move. Osbourne is toxic with the grass roots.
Is this his way of sabotaging his own campaign - and therefore to bring down Boris without the risk of actually having to be PM?
The betrayal of Boris by Gove really sucks! I wonder what he will do now? Could he leave politics altogether? Perhaps if he was daring he could lead UKIP and make of that party something worthwhile.
I listened thanks and Gove:- 1. Admits to meeting Osborne on Tuesday straight after cabinet. (Was Cameron present?) 2. Was not asked about any possible role for Osborne. That needs to be followed up.
Boris was the darling of the party to many, if not considered a PM. Gove's dirty deed will rebound horribly. The carefully crafted man of principle is shown to be just another grubby hack.
Worse are the constant and various replays of his absolute denials of PM ambitions. "I'm not up to it" .... Rinse and repeat from his rivals.
I think there's also a possibility of a coronation by accident/default as May piles up the votes and the other four contenders vie for a small share of a diminishing pie as the voting rounds progress.
Final Round - May 250 .. A N Other 80 .
I can see this going badly for Mr Gove, I don't see it being a gift for Ms May.
Unless of course Gove is paving the way for Andrea (i.e. he'll pull out an hour before voting on Tuesday and urge all leaver'ers to back Mrs Leadson) We still don't really know what the hell Michael Gove is up to, IMO.
Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me.
There is (IMO, and politics has of late proven itself pretty bonkers) no chance of Gove playing fast and loose enough with grown up politics to be playing that kind of game.
If nothing else, the backlash against his preferred candidate would be huge. Leadsom isn't enough of a character in her own right to withstand it or shrug it off.
All he'd have to say is that he can't get enough support together to make it worthwhile anybody voting for him so he'll be withdrawing his nomination + Suggest that as the last LEAVER standing everyone that way inclined for go for Andrea...
It would be too blatant. I think he wants to be PM.
He can't be, no one will support a serial backstabber for Tory Leader.
There was a certain delicious expertise in his timing. A more skilled politician than I expected. Like in Diplomacy, it is important to choose the moment well.
Gove has more about him than the others. He has a certain intellectual coherence that is rare in modern politicians.
That would be too hilarious for words. Even better if Ozzy stays on, and he and Gove go for EU-membership in all but name. The reaction of the anti-Osborne Leaver crowd on here would be a sight to behold. Please, God, let it happen!
I thought Gove was bright...this is a very dim move. Osbourne is toxic with the grass roots.
Is this his way of sabotaging his own campaign - and therefore to bring down Boris without the risk of actually having to be PM?
Well, the Boris thing was a turn up. I think he was hopelessly naive: he made a Devil's pact with the Tory hard-right and they shredded him. As for Gove: I've quite liked him of late, presuming that his earlier incarnation of pop-eyed NeoCon and Iraq invasion fanatic was just a phase. But I'm now wondering if he toned down all that just to get into Dave's good books. I'm now thinking that unfettered he might be quite dangerous.
Agreed.Gove looked quite mad on Channel 4 news.His other problem is that his face is that of a fish/Trout probably.
The betrayal of Boris by Gove really sucks! I wonder what he will do now? Could he leave politics altogether? Perhaps if he was daring he could lead UKIP and make of that party something worthwhile.
You can have Mad Nad when Carswell comes the other way....
We have crossover on Betfair. Leadsom now ahead of Gove. Probably caused by the reports of Gove struggling to find any new MPs to support his campaign.
No surprise, the Leavers who don't like what Gove did to Boris will go to Leasdom as the only alternative.
That was clear since the first moment.
We could be up for a battle between two women for the Tory leadership.
If Leadsom wins it'll be one of the fastest rises to the top in British political history.
I think David Cameron rose faster to the top of the Tory party.
If it's Leadsom vs May, you can think about the TV debates, Leadsom has the advantage of being better on the TV than May.
Will there be public debates between the final two candidates?
They were last time, and the Labour party did too last year.
That's why Leadsom has the advantage over May, she is better on TV than her.
You can list other advantages too, like May's sketchy record in the Home Office and May supporting Remain.
Leadsom may play the fresh face card, and May would lose the female card.
Leadsom wasn't great in the second debate. In fact she was poor.
I'm not a tory, but isn't Gove pretty popular with the members? Seems to me that if he makes the last two he'll have a better chance against May than Boris would have had.
He was popular with members up to this action against Boris. I would guess that his stature has slumped significantly but if he is the LEAVE candidate vs May that may propel him into a win. Her immigration record and her REMAIN position may be more toxic. But if he has a slot for Osborne that is going to finish his chances.
I think you're overestimating the immigration vote within the membership. I think sovereignty was the main driver for Tory members to vote leave. A lot will accept free movement with a fudge if it is necessary for single market status. More than half IMO, though I'm in London, so the members I know may not be representative.
We have crossover on Betfair. Leadsom now ahead of Gove. Probably caused by the reports of Gove struggling to find any new MPs to support his campaign.
No surprise, the Leavers who don't like what Gove did to Boris will go to Leasdom as the only alternative.
That was clear since the first moment.
We could be up for a battle between two women for the Tory leadership.
If Leadsom wins it'll be one of the fastest rises to the top in British political history.
I think David Cameron rose faster to the top of the Tory party.
If it's Leadsom vs May, you can think about the TV debates, Leadsom has the advantage of being better on the TV than May.
Will there be public debates between the final two candidates?
They were last time, and the Labour party did too last year.
That's why Leadsom has the advantage over May, she is better on TV than her.
You can list other advantages too, like May's sketchy record in the Home Office and May supporting Remain.
Leadsom may play the fresh face card, and May would lose the female card.
Leadsom wasn't great in the second debate. In fact she was poor.
Very poor and was jeered when for the 25th time she droned on about "taking control".
I think I now feel of Gove the same way my teacher friends have for years.......
I trust he's humiliated......
Not yet. To quote Sir Terry Pratchett, what you feel now is only a mild dislike. When you have lived with his errors for what feels like a thousand years, then you will begin to know the meaning of hate!
The betrayal of Boris by Gove really sucks! I wonder what he will do now? Could he leave politics altogether? Perhaps if he was daring he could lead UKIP and make of that party something worthwhile.
You can have Mad Nad when Carswell comes the other way....
I'll take Mad Nad anytime over the likes of you and the whole Labour rattery.
We have crossover on Betfair. Leadsom now ahead of Gove. Probably caused by the reports of Gove struggling to find any new MPs to support his campaign.
No surprise, the Leavers who don't like what Gove did to Boris will go to Leasdom as the only alternative.
That was clear since the first moment.
We could be up for a battle between two women for the Tory leadership.
If Leadsom wins it'll be one of the fastest rises to the top in British political history.
I think David Cameron rose faster to the top of the Tory party.
If it's Leadsom vs May, you can think about the TV debates, Leadsom has the advantage of being better on the TV than May.
Will there be public debates between the final two candidates?
They were last time, and the Labour party did too last year.
That's why Leadsom has the advantage over May, she is better on TV than her.
You can list other advantages too, like May's sketchy record in the Home Office and May supporting Remain.
Leadsom may play the fresh face card, and May would lose the female card.
Leadsom wasn't great in the second debate. In fact she was poor.
I think Mays problem when it goes to party at large is she supported remain. It is difficult to square the circle. I don't think her record is much of a problem. On immigration she just says she was always forced to fight with one hand behind her back.
That would be too hilarious for words. Even better if Ozzy stays on, and he and Gove go for EU-membership in all but name. The reaction of the anti-Osborne Leaver crowd on here would be a sight to behold. Please, God, let it happen!
I thought Gove was bright...this is a very dim move. Osbourne is toxic with the grass roots.
Is this his way of sabotaging his own campaign - and therefore to bring down Boris without the risk of actually having to be PM?
Boris is already down....?
I know, but he couldn't just torpedo Boris' campaign then give up! That would have been too obvious.
He has to make it look like he really does want the job or he will be a social pariah forevermore.
We have crossover on Betfair. Leadsom now ahead of Gove. Probably caused by the reports of Gove struggling to find any new MPs to support his campaign.
No surprise, the Leavers who don't like what Gove did to Boris will go to Leasdom as the only alternative.
That was clear since the first moment.
We could be up for a battle between two women for the Tory leadership.
If Leadsom wins it'll be one of the fastest rises to the top in British political history.
I think David Cameron rose faster to the top of the Tory party.
If it's Leadsom vs May, you can think about the TV debates, Leadsom has the advantage of being better on the TV than May.
Will there be public debates between the final two candidates?
They were last time, and the Labour party did too last year.
That's why Leadsom has the advantage over May, she is better on TV than her.
You can list other advantages too, like May's sketchy record in the Home Office and May supporting Remain.
Leadsom may play the fresh face card, and May would lose the female card.
Leadsom wasn't great in the second debate. In fact she was poor.
Very poor and was jeered when for the 25th time she droned on about "taking control".
Was her script a binned draft of The Dark Knight Rises?
The betrayal of Boris by Gove really sucks! I wonder what he will do now? Could he leave politics altogether? Perhaps if he was daring he could lead UKIP and make of that party something worthwhile.
You can have Mad Nad when Carswell comes the other way....
I'll take Mad Nad anytime over the likes of you and the whole Labour rattery.
We have crossover on Betfair. Leadsom now ahead of Gove. Probably caused by the reports of Gove struggling to find any new MPs to support his campaign.
No surprise, the Leavers who don't like what Gove did to Boris will go to Leasdom as the only alternative.
That was clear since the first moment.
We could be up for a battle between two women for the Tory leadership.
If Leadsom wins it'll be one of the fastest rises to the top in British political history.
I think David Cameron rose faster to the top of the Tory party.
If it's Leadsom vs May, you can think about the TV debates, Leadsom has the advantage of being better on the TV than May.
Will there be public debates between the final two candidates?
They were last time, and the Labour party did too last year.
That's why Leadsom has the advantage over May, she is better on TV than her.
You can list other advantages too, like May's sketchy record in the Home Office and May supporting Remain.
Leadsom may play the fresh face card, and May would lose the female card.
Leadsom wasn't great in the second debate. In fact she was poor.
I think Mays problem when it goes to party at large is she supported remain. It is difficult to square the circle. I don't think her record is much of a problem. On immigration she just says she was always forced to fight with one hand behind her back.
It won't matter, believe me, particularly as she has made it crystal clear that Brexit means Brexit. Are you a party member?
That would be too hilarious for words. Even better if Ozzy stays on, and he and Gove go for EU-membership in all but name. The reaction of the anti-Osborne Leaver crowd on here would be a sight to behold. Please, God, let it happen!
I thought Gove was bright...this is a very dim move. Osbourne is toxic with the grass roots.
Is this his way of sabotaging his own campaign - and therefore to bring down Boris without the risk of actually having to be PM?
Boris is already down....?
I know, but he couldn't just torpedo Boris' campaign then give up! That would have been too obvious.
He has to make it look like he really does want the job or he will be a social pariah forevermore.
I am worried for you (-; How do you think all this up. Imagination runs riot.
Can you do some work on my CV for me...I need a pay rise,
We have crossover on Betfair. Leadsom now ahead of Gove. Probably caused by the reports of Gove struggling to find any new MPs to support his campaign.
No surprise, the Leavers who don't like what Gove did to Boris will go to Leasdom as the only alternative.
That was clear since the first moment.
We could be up for a battle between two women for the Tory leadership.
If Leadsom wins it'll be one of the fastest rises to the top in British political history.
I think David Cameron rose faster to the top of the Tory party.
If it's Leadsom vs May, you can think about the TV debates, Leadsom has the advantage of being better on the TV than May.
Will there be public debates between the final two candidates?
They were last time, and the Labour party did too last year.
That's why Leadsom has the advantage over May, she is better on TV than her.
You can list other advantages too, like May's sketchy record in the Home Office and May supporting Remain.
Leadsom may play the fresh face card, and May would lose the female card.
Leadsom wasn't great in the second debate. In fact she was poor.
Very poor and was jeered when for the 25th time she droned on about "taking control".
Was her script a binned draft of The Dark Knight Rises?
Um, um, no comprendez but she sounded silly, lightweight and vacuous.
I am worried for you (-; How do you think all this up. Imagination runs riot.
Can you do some work on my CV for me...I need a pay rise,
Well, i do interview well...
I don't seriously think that he's trying to torpedo his own campaign. But I don't believe he truly thinks he is the best contender for PM. Time and time again he has said that he doesn't have what it takes. But crucially he is convinced that Boris would be even worse.
We have crossover on Betfair. Leadsom now ahead of Gove. Probably caused by the reports of Gove struggling to find any new MPs to support his campaign.
No surprise, the Leavers who don't like what Gove did to Boris will go to Leasdom as the only alternative.
That was clear since the first moment.
We could be up for a battle between two women for the Tory leadership.
If Leadsom wins it'll be one of the fastest rises to the top in British political history.
I think David Cameron rose faster to the top of the Tory party.
If it's Leadsom vs May, you can think about the TV debates, Leadsom has the advantage of being better on the TV than May.
Will there be public debates between the final two candidates?
They were last time, and the Labour party did too last year.
That's why Leadsom has the advantage over May, she is better on TV than her.
You can list other advantages too, like May's sketchy record in the Home Office and May supporting Remain.
Leadsom may play the fresh face card, and May would lose the female card.
Leadsom wasn't great in the second debate. In fact she was poor.
Mr. Glenn, the Lib Dems would be better off with Lamb. Clegg may still be seen as tainted (hard for me to judge that, wasn't a Lib Dem voter so I never felt betrayed, as some appeared to).
Unnoticed is the split in that Lamb wants the referendum vote to be respected and Farron is pledging to take us back into the EU. Democrats vs Europhiles.
The split you've just describe does not match the label you give it. Farron is, as I understood it, pledging to run on a manifesto commitment to take us back into the EU. Now, that position is not going to win a majority, but if it did, that would be a democratic outcome. Unless he's changed tune and is now saying we shouldn't leave in the first place.
Norman Lamb @normanlamb Jun 25 We must respect the democratic process
Norman Lamb @normanlamb Jun 26 But we are democrats and we do have to respect the outcome of this referendum
Norman Lamb @normanlamb Jun 26 We must respect the outcome of the vote.
Norman Lamb @normanlamb 6 hours ago I must always respect the democratic process Norman Lamb Retweeted Ralph Buckle And democracy supporting Lib Dems should consider if membership of that party is consistent with what they stand 4
None of that disproves what I said. Not even slightly in fact, so repeating it four times doesn't make it any more relevant, and that applies to Lamb as well. Labour lost the last election, are they not respecting the democratic process by pledging to win the next one. Farron is saying we will leave, that won't be stopped, but he will seek to reverse it democratically.
I really don't understand why that is so controversial. Seeking to rerun the result, seeking not to declare article 50 without a mandate to do so, that would be undemocratic.
It's perfectly possible to respect the democratic process and also seek the people's approval to reverse that decision at a future GE - in fact that is even more respectful of the democratic process.
Anyone implying it is not allowed for someone to campaign to reverse a decision taken today at some unspecified future point, irrespective of whether people might want to vote for it, would be displaying more contempt for the democratic process, as it would be saying it doesn't matter what is voted for democratically voted for inthe future, we made up our minds here forever.
Now, I don't think the LDs would win on a pledge to rejoin the EU. But desiring to 'rejoin' rather than pledging to ignore the request to leave, is not undemocratic. Unless Lamb is an idiot, I would hope he is referring to people seeking to prevent Leave happening, which could be labelled as so.
I missed the fact that Paul Flynn appeared at the despatch box as the oldest MP to do so since Queen Victoria.Odds on Dennis Skinner accepting a similar position such as Minister Without Portfolio?
Paul Flynn said in his previous 20 odd years in parliament it was not his choice to be on the front bench - nor that of the previous five Labour leaders.
Glenn, the Lib Dems would be better off with Lamb. Clegg may still be seen as tainted (hard for me to judge that, wasn't a Lib Dem voter so I never felt betrayed, as some appeared to).
Unnoticed is the split in that Lamb wants the referendum vote to be respected and Farron is pledging to take us back into the EU. Democrats vs Europhiles.
Not sure the point you are making. Farron's had said that Parliament should not seek to overturn the result. But no one should expect the Lib Dems not to campaign for reentering the EU if that is what they believe in. Any more than we would expect UKIP to stop campaigning to Leave if they lost It seems to.me that the position outlined by Farron's is perfectly honourable.
Lamb says in essence that they need to respect democracy and move on. Farron wants to reopen the wound. A fundamental difference. There are other rumblings going on in the Lib Dems on this. Have a look at the first comments. They are not united. http://www.libdemvoice.org/a-message-from-tim-farron-51090.html
I think it is a bit rash to set re-entry as policy before it is clear what Brexit means.
If it is a good EEA deal, then things may be different. If it is a pisspoor deal and our economy is down the Swanee then re-entry may be very very popular.
Neither a piss poor deal, nor a good one, i suggest, but somewhere in between. And it won't be EEA in its current form.There will be a haggle and there will be a deal. The other side hold most but not all the cards And the eventual deal will reflect that inbalance.
The thing is, the best realistic deal, by summer distance and leaving aside discussions of democracy and sovereignty , is the only one that is off the table: full membership of the EU. There is no reason for the best deal to be off the table except it was rejected in a ballot. It is difficult for Remainers to be involved in planning the future because they can only propose solutions that they know to be inferior.
Comments
If he wants to win for sure he should promise to hang Osborne with piano wire.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G6Zed7zaVzI
It's now 41...
It will be her political epitaph.
Ironically, one of her more astute soundbites.
Who can best use that week? Well, it seems to me that May is such a front runner that the only real question will be whether a Leave candidate can establish themselves as an even vaguely credible alternative. Of Leadsom and Gove the winner will be the one who can bring enough of the Cameroons onside. Gove chatting up Osborne shows that he fully realises that. My guess is that he will come out second to May but really struggle to beat her head to head with the members.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19mKbV0UnIbX_lbiinKiquP0ghiFpsMl0owUO6_TJyzI/edit#gid=0
I trust he's humiliated......
That's her off my list then... leaves May / Gove / Crabb
1. Admits to meeting Osborne on Tuesday straight after cabinet. (Was Cameron present?)
2. Was not asked about any possible role for Osborne. That needs to be followed up.
Gove has more about him than the others. He has a certain intellectual coherence that is rare in modern politicians.
Simon Richards Retweeted
https://twitter.com/brexittruths/status/748578309773074433
He has to make it look like he really does want the job or he will be a social pariah forevermore.
Trump is edging in on BF...
Can you do some work on my CV for me...I need a pay rise,
Trump is Clinton's trump card ....
I don't seriously think that he's trying to torpedo his own campaign. But I don't believe he truly thinks he is the best contender for PM. Time and time again he has said that he doesn't have what it takes. But crucially he is convinced that Boris would be even worse.
Leadsom was still better in the debate than May.
Not my problem.
new thread
That's another 60,000 votes for Corbyn then.
I really don't understand why that is so controversial. Seeking to rerun the result, seeking not to declare article 50 without a mandate to do so, that would be undemocratic.
It's perfectly possible to respect the democratic process and also seek the people's approval to reverse that decision at a future GE - in fact that is even more respectful of the democratic process.
Anyone implying it is not allowed for someone to campaign to reverse a decision taken today at some unspecified future point, irrespective of whether people might want to vote for it, would be displaying more contempt for the democratic process, as it would be saying it doesn't matter what is voted for democratically voted for inthe future, we made up our minds here forever.
Now, I don't think the LDs would win on a pledge to rejoin the EU. But desiring to 'rejoin' rather than pledging to ignore the request to leave, is not undemocratic. Unless Lamb is an idiot, I would hope he is referring to people seeking to prevent Leave happening, which could be labelled as so.
He's currently @4.5. He'll have to do a bit more 'edging in'
The thing is, the best realistic deal, by summer distance and leaving aside discussions of democracy and sovereignty , is the only one that is off the table: full membership of the EU. There is no reason for the best deal to be off the table except it was rejected in a ballot. It is difficult for Remainers to be involved in planning the future because they can only propose solutions that they know to be inferior.