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Comments
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Yes, fig leaf on free movement.YellowSubmarine said:Is May's language on ECHR code for something else ' it divides people and there is no parliamentary majority for it '. What other current issue could be described like that I wonder ?
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*Its*, rather.0
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I don't think we would be paying for a whole year just for one month. I don't think it works that way. Is it not on VAT receipts ?Lennon said:
I *think* that if you invoke Article 50 this December (2016), and then take exactly 2 years negotiating, then you have to pay EU Fees in 2016, 2017 and 2018 (when you are still a member), but not in 2019 (As you would have left).Jobabob said:
Explain why that is relevant (not saying it isn't but I simply don't follow the logic).anotherDave said:
Liam Fox made the point on the Sunday Politics, that the EU budget runs Jan-Dec, so you'd want to invoke article 50 so the clock ran out in or before Dec.Jobabob said:Quick question, as I'm thinking of playing the Article 50 market.
We now know it won't be invoked in 2016 (assuming a May victory). So can we assume Q1 2017?
Possible curveball: May is not able to get it through parliament as europhile Tories rebel on a technicality (i.e. assurances from EU not good enough etc). Result: considerable delay.
Is Q3 2017 therefore value at 20/1?
https://www.skybet.com/politics/european-politics/event/19451469
Conversely, if you invoke in January 2017 and take exactly 2 years then you would have to pay in 2019 as well so there is an incentive to invoke at the end of the year.0 -
JohnO said:
Could he have tried "to form a coalition" with Ruth !!!!Jobabob said:surbiton said:So what happens to Nadine now ? Having Criticised Cameron and Osborne for being posh-boys, then Boris leaves her high and dry.
So, what is this Boris scandal ?
Something to do with a Scottish lass according to Bunco.
Ruth isn't that way inclined. Miss Sturgeon perhaps????0 -
They did have that meeting. Remember !TheScreamingEagles said:I've heard a rumour from a very reliable source.
PM Gove would keep Ozzy as Chancellor.
I might have to defect from Team Theresa to Team Gove0 -
Team Gove will take us out of the single market. How will you square that circle?TheScreamingEagles said:I've heard a rumour from a very reliable source.
PM Gove would keep Ozzy as Chancellor.
I might have to defect from Team Theresa to Team Gove0 -
She thinks she's going to win. People who don't think they'll win can say what they like.RobD said:
ECHR membership was not put to a referendum of the people. Plus she just said "brexit means brexit"YellowSubmarine said:Is May's language on ECHR code for something else ' it divides people and there is no parliamentary majority for it '. What other current issue could be described like that I wonder ?
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Actually in Gove's case I think I do. He didn't say "I have no ambitions in that direction but if one were to be persuaded to stand..." and all that bullshit. He said, on more than one occasion that he did not have the personal qualities and skill set required for the top job.Pulpstar said:
You don't seriously think that's an impediment do you ?MaxPB said:
He's said it. A lot.Pong said:
Why would he not want the leadership?MaxPB said:
He doesn't want the leadership, just to keep Boris out.Pong said:
Why wouldn't he go all the way?MaxPB said:
He'll knock Leadsom and Fox out then drop out leaving her to go up against Crabb.mr-claypole said:What would be a decent interval for Gove to withdraw and endorse May?
Think we are seeing a Michael Howard style coronation being orchestrated. The Tory party can have amazing audacity (why did i doubt that).
Poor Boris career ended the day he accidentally won the referendum he wanted to lose well. There is nothing for him now - even Heseltine has his various regeneration successes and stellar business career to look back on. A full Sebastain Flyte style future beckons for the blond one.
He's likely to be very competitive vs. May on the membership ballot.
Why would he drop out?
What of his personal qualities and skills have changed? As I said up thread, all the May team have to do is dig out those old interviews and run them.0 -
Geez, pop out for lunch and yet more developments - Boris not standing, what a humiliation for him. I would consider voting for May in GE depending on what comes out of Brexit (and my constituency is a labour tory marginal so my vote counts!). If it's Gove I would vote Labour. Gone back on his word, so no better or more trustworthy than any other Tory that's been berated for that, including Boris and Cameron. A true brexiteer so fear he really would cut off single market access in order to cut immigration.0
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Would you trust him to drive you home after a party? That was Rudd's most pointed jibe.peter_from_putney said:
Go on .... give us a clue.YellowSubmarine said:
It's been hidden in plain sight for weeks. The carefully crafted Amber Rudd jibe in the first debate.surbiton said:So what happens to Nadine now ? Having Criticised Cameron and Osborne for being posh-boys, then Boris leaves her high and dry.
So, what is this Boris scandal ?
No idea what the scandal is though, except Bunnco keeps hinting it involves Scotland.
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YellowSubmarine said:
It's been hidden in plain sight for weeks. The carefully crafted Amber Rudd jibe in the first debate.surbiton said:So what happens to Nadine now ? Having Criticised Cameron and Osborne for being posh-boys, then Boris leaves her high and dry.
So, what is this Boris scandal ?
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But ECHR is outside the EU? (Council for Europe).not_on_fire said:
Good. Sanity has prevailed.TCPoliticalBetting said:May ditches another manifesto pledge.
James Landale @BBCJLandale 3h3 hours ago
Important: Theresa May ditches plan to pull UK out of ECHR - says it divides people & has no parliamentary majority
Charter of Fundamental Rights and ECJ are the troublesome ones.0 -
A compromise will be found. Realpolitik meets RealEconomics.MaxPB said:
Team Gove will take us out of the single market. How will you square that circle?TheScreamingEagles said:I've heard a rumour from a very reliable source.
PM Gove would keep Ozzy as Chancellor.
I might have to defect from Team Theresa to Team Gove0 -
Time to ditch the photo that helped stop Boris...0
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TheScreamingEagles said:
I've heard a rumour from a very reliable source.
PM Gove would keep Ozzy as Chancellor.
I might have to defect from Team Theresa to Team Gove
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'He's not the man you want to drive you home at the end of the evening'.felix said:YellowSubmarine said:
It's been hidden in plain sight for weeks. The carefully crafted Amber Rudd jibe in the first debate.surbiton said:So what happens to Nadine now ? Having Criticised Cameron and Osborne for being posh-boys, then Boris leaves her high and dry.
So, what is this Boris scandal ?0 -
Frustrating when people parade around the fact they know the juicy detailsfelix said:YellowSubmarine said:
It's been hidden in plain sight for weeks. The carefully crafted Amber Rudd jibe in the first debate.surbiton said:So what happens to Nadine now ? Having Criticised Cameron and Osborne for being posh-boys, then Boris leaves her high and dry.
So, what is this Boris scandal ?
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The Mail on Sunday would have. They have nothing, Boris knows the out support will flock to Gove.RobD said:
Not if the papers were for Leave.anotherDave said:
If there was any dirt on Boris, they'd have splashed it in the papers during the referendum. This is just smearing.peter_from_putney said:
Go on .... give us a clue.YellowSubmarine said:
It's been hidden in plain sight for weeks. The carefully crafted Amber Rudd jibe in the first debate.surbiton said:So what happens to Nadine now ? Having Criticised Cameron and Osborne for being posh-boys, then Boris leaves her high and dry.
So, what is this Boris scandal ?0 -
I feel ever more confident that one day Osborne will be Tory leader0
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The EU will have to negotiate (via back channels, obviously) before A50 as far as I can see.Richard_Nabavi said:
I'd be careful. I think she's bluffing - it's a negotiating stance. It's in everyone's interest to get this done ASAP.Jobabob said:Quick question, as I'm thinking of playing the Article 50 market.
We now know it won't be invoked in 2016 (assuming a May victory). So can we assume Q1 2017?
Possible curveball: May is not able to get it through parliament as europhile Tories rebel on a technicality (i.e. assurances from EU not good enough etc). Result: considerable delay.
Is Q3 2017 therefore value at 20/1?
https://www.skybet.com/politics/european-politics/event/194514690 -
Not all of them were.RobD said:
Not if the papers were for Leave.anotherDave said:
If there was any dirt on Boris, they'd have splashed it in the papers during the referendum. This is just smearing.peter_from_putney said:
Go on .... give us a clue.YellowSubmarine said:
It's been hidden in plain sight for weeks. The carefully crafted Amber Rudd jibe in the first debate.surbiton said:So what happens to Nadine now ? Having Criticised Cameron and Osborne for being posh-boys, then Boris leaves her high and dry.
So, what is this Boris scandal ?
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Darth GideonTheScreamingEagles said:I feel ever more confident that one day Osborne will be Tory leader
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It's only Thursday...DecrepitJohnL said:You've got to feel sorry for the podcast people -- the longest week just got longer.
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Maybe in opposition as a stop gap.TheScreamingEagles said:I feel ever more confident that one day Osborne will be Tory leader
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May was wearing tartan this morning - the plot thickens!Jobabob said:surbiton said:So what happens to Nadine now ? Having Criticised Cameron and Osborne for being posh-boys, then Boris leaves her high and dry.
So, what is this Boris scandal ?
Something to do with a Scottish lass according to Bunco.0 -
But maybe not all of them had the detailsanotherDave said:
Not all of them were.RobD said:
Not if the papers were for Leave.anotherDave said:
If there was any dirt on Boris, they'd have splashed it in the papers during the referendum. This is just smearing.peter_from_putney said:
Go on .... give us a clue.YellowSubmarine said:
It's been hidden in plain sight for weeks. The carefully crafted Amber Rudd jibe in the first debate.surbiton said:So what happens to Nadine now ? Having Criticised Cameron and Osborne for being posh-boys, then Boris leaves her high and dry.
So, what is this Boris scandal ?
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Reminds me of the IRA non negotiations.Tissue_Price said:
The EU will have to negotiate (via back channels, obviously) before A50 as far as I can see.Richard_Nabavi said:
I'd be careful. I think she's bluffing - it's a negotiating stance. It's in everyone's interest to get this done ASAP.Jobabob said:Quick question, as I'm thinking of playing the Article 50 market.
We now know it won't be invoked in 2016 (assuming a May victory). So can we assume Q1 2017?
Possible curveball: May is not able to get it through parliament as europhile Tories rebel on a technicality (i.e. assurances from EU not good enough etc). Result: considerable delay.
Is Q3 2017 therefore value at 20/1?
https://www.skybet.com/politics/european-politics/event/194514690 -
Okay, here's my order or preference for PM in descending order: May > Leadsom > Fox > Gove > Crabb.0
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Ms Rudd wasn’t finished with Mr Johnson yet. “Boris is the life and soul of the party,” she snorted, in her concluding statement. “But he isn’t the man you want driving you home at the end of the evening!”
What did she mean by that ?0 -
Who remembers "Robot Wars"?Tissue_Price said:
The EU will have to negotiate (via back channels, obviously) before A50 as far as I can see.Richard_Nabavi said:
I'd be careful. I think she's bluffing - it's a negotiating stance. It's in everyone's interest to get this done ASAP.Jobabob said:Quick question, as I'm thinking of playing the Article 50 market.
We now know it won't be invoked in 2016 (assuming a May victory). So can we assume Q1 2017?
Possible curveball: May is not able to get it through parliament as europhile Tories rebel on a technicality (i.e. assurances from EU not good enough etc). Result: considerable delay.
Is Q3 2017 therefore value at 20/1?
https://www.skybet.com/politics/european-politics/event/19451469
BREXITEERS, STAND BY....
3...
2...
1...
NEGOTIATE!
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The 180 waiting days are the compromise I've heard. I don't know if Gove will accept that, May probably would. Gove has said he would take the UK out of the single market on a number od occasions and has said he is not up to being leader/PM. He is not the right person to take us forwards.TheScreamingEagles said:
A compromise will be found. Realpolitik meets RealEconomics.MaxPB said:
Team Gove will take us out of the single market. How will you square that circle?TheScreamingEagles said:I've heard a rumour from a very reliable source.
PM Gove would keep Ozzy as Chancellor.
I might have to defect from Team Theresa to Team Gove0 -
Ruth is very broad-minded I'm sure but draws the line at men - however wet they may be.JohnO said:
Could he have tried "to form a coalition" with Ruth !!!!Jobabob said:surbiton said:So what happens to Nadine now ? Having Criticised Cameron and Osborne for being posh-boys, then Boris leaves her high and dry.
So, what is this Boris scandal ?
Something to do with a Scottish lass according to Bunco.0 -
As we simultaneously negotiate with the rest of the world.Tissue_Price said:
The EU will have to negotiate (via back channels, obviously) before A50 as far as I can see.Richard_Nabavi said:
I'd be careful. I think she's bluffing - it's a negotiating stance. It's in everyone's interest to get this done ASAP.Jobabob said:Quick question, as I'm thinking of playing the Article 50 market.
We now know it won't be invoked in 2016 (assuming a May victory). So can we assume Q1 2017?
Possible curveball: May is not able to get it through parliament as europhile Tories rebel on a technicality (i.e. assurances from EU not good enough etc). Result: considerable delay.
Is Q3 2017 therefore value at 20/1?
https://www.skybet.com/politics/european-politics/event/194514690 -
It's well known that Gove and Osborne have long been friends and allies: ditto that both, but in particular Gove, dislike May, so such rumours must contain a grain of 'instinctive truth' (if such a phrase has any meaning).
But I'm warning soulmate TSE: don't even think about it.0 -
Been in a meeting for a couple of hours - did i miss anything...?0
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So then... #1 May and Mutti the matriarchal arch pragmatists do a deal on Free Movement. #2 A50 never invoked. #3 Britain Brexit's in nothing but name at the next Treaty change. ? All we need now is terminology to describe our non Brexit Brexit. What do people think ?0
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Just the usual.JonCisBack said:Been in a meeting for a couple of hours - did i miss anything...?
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TSE's AV thread has been delayed again due to events....JonCisBack said:Been in a meeting for a couple of hours - did i miss anything...?
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blimey i would rather have a Ferret than a Foxtlg86 said:Okay, here's my order or preference for PM in descending order: May > Leadsom > Fox > Gove > Crabb.
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Probably something else to be sorted. I wonder how much of the discussions will be in the public domain?surbiton said:
I don't think we would be paying for a whole year just for one month. I don't think it works that way. Is it not on VAT receipts ?Lennon said:
I *think* that if you invoke Article 50 this December (2016), and then take exactly 2 years negotiating, then you have to pay EU Fees in 2016, 2017 and 2018 (when you are still a member), but not in 2019 (As you would have left).Jobabob said:
Explain why that is relevant (not saying it isn't but I simply don't follow the logic).anotherDave said:
Liam Fox made the point on the Sunday Politics, that the EU budget runs Jan-Dec, so you'd want to invoke article 50 so the clock ran out in or before Dec.Jobabob said:Quick question, as I'm thinking of playing the Article 50 market.
We now know it won't be invoked in 2016 (assuming a May victory). So can we assume Q1 2017?
Possible curveball: May is not able to get it through parliament as europhile Tories rebel on a technicality (i.e. assurances from EU not good enough etc). Result: considerable delay.
Is Q3 2017 therefore value at 20/1?
https://www.skybet.com/politics/european-politics/event/19451469
Conversely, if you invoke in January 2017 and take exactly 2 years then you would have to pay in 2019 as well so there is an incentive to invoke at the end of the year.0 -
But what does Brexit actually mean? :-)RobD said:
ECHR membership was not put to a referendum of the people. Plus she just said "brexit means brexit"YellowSubmarine said:Is May's language on ECHR code for something else ' it divides people and there is no parliamentary majority for it '. What other current issue could be described like that I wonder ?
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If you've got some dirt, spill it.surbiton said:Ms Rudd wasn’t finished with Mr Johnson yet. “Boris is the life and soul of the party,” she snorted, in her concluding statement. “But he isn’t the man you want driving you home at the end of the evening!”
What did she mean by that ?
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There's a reason Ruth doesn't like himMyBurningEars said:
Would you trust him to drive you home after a party? That was Rudd's most pointed jibe.peter_from_putney said:
Go on .... give us a clue.YellowSubmarine said:
It's been hidden in plain sight for weeks. The carefully crafted Amber Rudd jibe in the first debate.surbiton said:So what happens to Nadine now ? Having Criticised Cameron and Osborne for being posh-boys, then Boris leaves her high and dry.
So, what is this Boris scandal ?
No idea what the scandal is though, except Bunnco keeps hinting it involves Scotland.0 -
Are you a politician?SouthamObserver said:
But what does Brexit actually mean? :-)RobD said:
ECHR membership was not put to a referendum of the people. Plus she just said "brexit means brexit"YellowSubmarine said:Is May's language on ECHR code for something else ' it divides people and there is no parliamentary majority for it '. What other current issue could be described like that I wonder ?
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I might be doing an AV heavy thread this weekend.RobD said:
TSE's AV thread has been delayed again due to events....JonCisBack said:Been in a meeting for a couple of hours - did i miss anything...?
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Of course our Charles knows...Charles said:
There's a reason Ruth doesn't like himMyBurningEars said:
Would you trust him to drive you home after a party? That was Rudd's most pointed jibe.peter_from_putney said:
Go on .... give us a clue.YellowSubmarine said:
It's been hidden in plain sight for weeks. The carefully crafted Amber Rudd jibe in the first debate.surbiton said:So what happens to Nadine now ? Having Criticised Cameron and Osborne for being posh-boys, then Boris leaves her high and dry.
So, what is this Boris scandal ?
No idea what the scandal is though, except Bunnco keeps hinting it involves Scotland. 0 -
Anything else would be a surprise - it's so funny.TheScreamingEagles said:I've heard a rumour from a very reliable source.
PM Gove would keep Ozzy as Chancellor.
I might have to defect from Team Theresa to Team Gove0 -
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A Boris?YellowSubmarine said:All we need now is terminology to describe our non Brexit Brexit. What do people think ?
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-36667115Pulpstar said:
Reminds me of the IRA non negotiations.Tissue_Price said:
The EU will have to negotiate (via back channels, obviously) before A50 as far as I can see.Richard_Nabavi said:
I'd be careful. I think she's bluffing - it's a negotiating stance. It's in everyone's interest to get this done ASAP.Jobabob said:Quick question, as I'm thinking of playing the Article 50 market.
We now know it won't be invoked in 2016 (assuming a May victory). So can we assume Q1 2017?
Possible curveball: May is not able to get it through parliament as europhile Tories rebel on a technicality (i.e. assurances from EU not good enough etc). Result: considerable delay.
Is Q3 2017 therefore value at 20/1?
https://www.skybet.com/politics/european-politics/event/194514690 -
In other news I cashed out a £7.50 Rubio bet for 25 pence with Paddy Power.0
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Are any of the candidates going to pull us out of ECHR? I might have to change my support from May... although Osborne for Gove might send me back.0
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You're Theresa May's consigliere on PB.JohnO said:It's well known that Gove and Osborne have long been friends and allies: ditto that both, but in particular Gove, dislike May, so such rumours must contain a grain of 'instinctive truth' (if such a phrase has any meaning).
But I'm warning soulmate TSE: don't even think about it.
But I'm still on team TM4PM0 -
No FoM.SouthamObserver said:
But what does Brexit actually mean? :-)RobD said:
ECHR membership was not put to a referendum of the people. Plus she just said "brexit means brexit"YellowSubmarine said:Is May's language on ECHR code for something else ' it divides people and there is no parliamentary majority for it '. What other current issue could be described like that I wonder ?
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Is there some sort of secret club of people that know where all the bodies are buried ?RobD said:
Of course our Charles knows...Charles said:
There's a reason Ruth doesn't like himMyBurningEars said:
Would you trust him to drive you home after a party? That was Rudd's most pointed jibe.peter_from_putney said:
Go on .... give us a clue.YellowSubmarine said:
It's been hidden in plain sight for weeks. The carefully crafted Amber Rudd jibe in the first debate.surbiton said:So what happens to Nadine now ? Having Criticised Cameron and Osborne for being posh-boys, then Boris leaves her high and dry.
So, what is this Boris scandal ?
No idea what the scandal is though, except Bunnco keeps hinting it involves Scotland.0 -
Try to source the accusation that Boris Johnson is a "Putin apologist". It surfaced during the referendum campaign. I mean who actually first called him that. What named person or specific office expressed the opinion? There's no clear answer. That's a hallmark.TudorRose said:
He never goes all the way?surbiton said:So what happens to Nadine now ? Having Criticised Cameron and Osborne for being posh-boys, then Boris leaves her high and dry.
So, what is this Boris scandal ?
There was a reason why Boris wasn't allowed into the proper cabinet, only into the "political" cabinet. He could have got into the cabinet as a minister without portfolio, but he didn't. Why not?
Meanwhile the French National Front is known to be financially supported by the Kremlin.
Keir Giles of Chatham House: "Unlike in Soviet times, Russia is no longer restricted in its choice of foreign friends by considerations of ideology, and one notable result is a surge in links with right-wing and anti-EU parties".
That isn't some loony writing on some silly website somewhere.
The fact that Johnson has difficulty keeping his knob in his trousers - not unusual among politicians - is icing on the cake.
So is the fact that he got himself taped discussing with Darius Guppy having someone beaten up. (The tape is here.)
A third possible route for bringing him down...well, the Tories decided they didn't want Michael Portillo as their leader too. Portillo and Johnson are as English and as British as anyone, but from some Tories' point of view, they aren't. "I am a liberal cosmopolitan and my family is a genetic UN peacekeeping force" didn't play well.
Despite the referendum result, Johnson's future was precarious. So glad I laid him.
I think I will stay out of the Tory leadership market now. Michael Gove was adopted and has no blood family background in the normal sense, and to judge from what his wife says he is indecently ambitious. That may suggest that he will do exactly what he is told, so he may be exactly the sort of person the insiders want.
Theresa May is the darling of the party itself. Is it true that she is a type 1 diabetic, by the way?
Either of them could win.0 -
Martin Kettle ✔ @martinkettle
The Tory party has proved yet again it has PhD in ruthlessness. Labour hasn't even passed GCSE.0 -
How else is JohnO going to get his peerage?TheScreamingEagles said:
You're Theresa May's consigliere on PB.JohnO said:It's well known that Gove and Osborne have long been friends and allies: ditto that both, but in particular Gove, dislike May, so such rumours must contain a grain of 'instinctive truth' (if such a phrase has any meaning).
But I'm warning soulmate TSE: don't even think about it.
But I'm still on team TM4PM0 -
ARF!felix said:
May was wearing tartan this morning - the plot thickens!Jobabob said:surbiton said:So what happens to Nadine now ? Having Criticised Cameron and Osborne for being posh-boys, then Boris leaves her high and dry.
So, what is this Boris scandal ?
Something to do with a Scottish lass according to Bunco.0 -
Yes we need someone who can easily backtrack on the leave campaign bullshit. Give won't be able to.JohnO said:It's well known that Gove and Osborne have long been friends and allies: ditto that both, but in particular Gove, dislike May, so such rumours must contain a grain of 'instinctive truth' (if such a phrase has any meaning).
But I'm warning soulmate TSE: don't even think about it.0 -
Well that depends on one's standpoint, Mr. Cole. When I was at the Home Office I found it a particularly useful time to get decisions through committees because very few people wanted to pay attention or spend the time to quibble. Circulating a 68 page discussion document 48 hours in advance with a very bland executive summary and all the tricky bits put into Appendix IV was, generally speaking, guaranteed to go through on the nod, especially if the meeting was held before lunch.OldKingCole said:
Awful month for decisions, December. Lose around two weeks due to Christmas.anotherDave said:
Article 50 starts a two year clock. You don't want that clock to runout in february, and leave you on the hook for 12 months contribution to the EU budget.Jobabob said:
Explain why that is relevant (not saying it isn't but I simply don't follow the logic).anotherDave said:
Liam Fox made the point on the Sunday Politics, that the EU budget runs Jan-Dec, so you'd want to invoke article 50 so the clock ran out in or before Dec.Jobabob said:Quick question, as I'm thinking of playing the Article 50 market.
We now know it won't be invoked in 2016 (assuming a May victory). So can we assume Q1 2017?
Possible curveball: May is not able to get it through parliament as europhile Tories rebel on a technicality (i.e. assurances from EU not good enough etc). Result: considerable delay.
Is Q3 2017 therefore value at 20/1?
https://www.skybet.com/politics/european-politics/event/194514690 -
Boodles or the Carlton?Pulpstar said:
Is there some sort of secret club of people that know where all the bodies are buried ?RobD said:
Of course our Charles knows...Charles said:
There's a reason Ruth doesn't like himMyBurningEars said:
Would you trust him to drive you home after a party? That was Rudd's most pointed jibe.peter_from_putney said:
Go on .... give us a clue.YellowSubmarine said:
It's been hidden in plain sight for weeks. The carefully crafted Amber Rudd jibe in the first debate.surbiton said:So what happens to Nadine now ? Having Criticised Cameron and Osborne for being posh-boys, then Boris leaves her high and dry.
So, what is this Boris scandal ?
No idea what the scandal is though, except Bunnco keeps hinting it involves Scotland.0 -
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As my man Hobbes said, "You're nasty, you're brutish, and you're very very short".RobD said:
How else is JohnO going to get his peerage?TheScreamingEagles said:
You're Theresa May's consigliere on PB.JohnO said:It's well known that Gove and Osborne have long been friends and allies: ditto that both, but in particular Gove, dislike May, so such rumours must contain a grain of 'instinctive truth' (if such a phrase has any meaning).
But I'm warning soulmate TSE: don't even think about it.0 -
I haven't but there is something. I cannot imagine a not unusual event like driving someone home would be brought up, unless heavy hints were being given.anotherDave said:
If you've got some dirt, spill it.surbiton said:Ms Rudd wasn’t finished with Mr Johnson yet. “Boris is the life and soul of the party,” she snorted, in her concluding statement. “But he isn’t the man you want driving you home at the end of the evening!”
What did she mean by that ?
But then again, why in the Brexit campaign ?0 -
Wrexit?wasd said:
A Boris?YellowSubmarine said:All we need now is terminology to describe our non Brexit Brexit. What do people think ?
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£11 of Dan Jarvis up at 16.5 for anyone who wants to cover off btw.0
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TSE - I hope you do not bet on the basis of your wonderful sources.TheScreamingEagles said:I've heard a rumour from a very reliable source.
PM Gove would keep Ozzy as Chancellor.
I might have to defect from Team Theresa to Team Gove
Is that the same source from CCHQ/REMAIN about the fact that the polls were way ahead for REMAIN and you saw a 12% to 15% win for REMAIN?
or the source a couple of weeks ago (I think) that told you if Cameron went on 24th June that Michael Gove will be George Osborne's campaign manager?
____________________________________________
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Indeed Mr L.HurstLlama said:
Well that depends on one's standpoint, Mr. Cole. When I was at the Home Office I found it a particularly useful time to get decisions through committees because very few people wanted to pay attention or spend the time to quibble. Circulating a 68 page discussion document 48 hours in advance with a very bland executive summary and all the tricky bits put into Appendix IV was, generally speaking, guaranteed to go through on the nod, especially if the meeting was held before lunch.OldKingCole said:
Awful month for decisions, December. Lose around two weeks due to Christmas.anotherDave said:
Article 50 starts a two year clock. You don't want that clock to runout in february, and leave you on the hook for 12 months contribution to the EU budget.Jobabob said:
Explain why that is relevant (not saying it isn't but I simply don't follow the logic).anotherDave said:
Liam Fox made the point on the Sunday Politics, that the EU budget runs Jan-Dec, so you'd want to invoke article 50 so the clock ran out in or before Dec.Jobabob said:Quick question, as I'm thinking of playing the Article 50 market.
We now know it won't be invoked in 2016 (assuming a May victory). So can we assume Q1 2017?
Possible curveball: May is not able to get it through parliament as europhile Tories rebel on a technicality (i.e. assurances from EU not good enough etc). Result: considerable delay.
Is Q3 2017 therefore value at 20/1?
https://www.skybet.com/politics/european-politics/event/19451469
See exactly what you mean! Works in the NHS, too!0 -
It has to be May I'm afraid. Gove....he looks like a little gobshyte, he speaks like a little gobshyte.....and oh yes he is a little gobshyte.
If Gove got to be PM, he and his missus would overshadow the Hamiltons in terms of unlikeability. Like the hamilton, they appear well matched.0 -
Bloody hell, did Jez really say this ?
Corbyn: "Our Jewish friends are no more responsible for the actions of Israel than our Muslim friends are for the self-styled Islamic State"0 -
Keep it in the safe. Just in case.Scrapheap_as_was said:Time to ditch the photo that helped stop Boris...
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Sara Vine as the PM's wife is indeed a horrifying prospect.tyson said:It has to be May I'm afraid. Gove....he looks like a little gobshyte, he speaks like a little gobshyte.....and oh yes he is a little gobshyte.
If Gove got to be PM, he and his missus would overshadow the Hamiltons in terms of unlikeability. Like the hamilton, they appear well matched.0 -
To be fair, his source may have been reporting the results of the poll accurately. That the poll was wrong wasn't the fault of his source.TCPoliticalBetting said:
TSE - I hope you do not bet on the basis of your wonderful sources.TheScreamingEagles said:I've heard a rumour from a very reliable source.
PM Gove would keep Ozzy as Chancellor.
I might have to defect from Team Theresa to Team Gove
Is that the same source from CCHQ/REMAIN about the fact that the polls were way ahead for REMAIN and you saw a 12% to 15% win for REMAIN?
or the source a couple of weeks ago (I think) that told you if Cameron went on 24th June that Michael Gove will be George Osborne's campaign manager?
____________________________________________0 -
Daily Mail looking like a big winner now:
Brexit & Gove a runner.
Sun with a score draw.0 -
It's brutal, but no shilly-shallying about.SimonStClare said:Martin Kettle ✔ @martinkettle
The Tory party has proved yet again it has PhD in ruthlessness. Labour hasn't even passed GCSE.0 -
Wrexham voted 59% leave!felix said:
Wrexit?wasd said:
A Boris?YellowSubmarine said:All we need now is terminology to describe our non Brexit Brexit. What do people think ?
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(((Rob Ford))) @robfordmancs 50m50 minutes ago
Boris engineered the largest constitutional crisis in post-war history but won't even put his name forward to clear it up?
What. A. Prat.0 -
Yup.HurstLlama said:
Well that depends on one's standpoint, Mr. Cole. When I was at the Home Office I found it a particularly useful time to get decisions through committees because very few people wanted to pay attention or spend the time to quibble. Circulating a 68 page discussion document 48 hours in advance with a very bland executive summary and all the tricky bits put into Appendix IV was, generally speaking, guaranteed to go through on the nod, especially if the meeting was held before lunch.OldKingCole said:
Awful month for decisions, December. Lose around two weeks due to Christmas.anotherDave said:
Article 50 starts a two year clock. You don't want that clock to runout in february, and leave you on the hook for 12 months contribution to the EU budget.Jobabob said:
Explain why that is relevant (not saying it isn't but I simply don't follow the logic).anotherDave said:
Liam Fox made the point on the Sunday Politics, that the EU budget runs Jan-Dec, so you'd want to invoke article 50 so the clock ran out in or before Dec.Jobabob said:Quick question, as I'm thinking of playing the Article 50 market.
We now know it won't be invoked in 2016 (assuming a May victory). So can we assume Q1 2017?
Possible curveball: May is not able to get it through parliament as europhile Tories rebel on a technicality (i.e. assurances from EU not good enough etc). Result: considerable delay.
Is Q3 2017 therefore value at 20/1?
https://www.skybet.com/politics/european-politics/event/194514690 -
He was the future once..TheScreamingEagles said:I feel ever more confident that one day Osborne will be Tory leader
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It's not even quite that. The EU as such (Juncker and his merry men) won't do any serious negotiation, but they don't ultimately matter much anyway - they are bureaucrats, they don't get to decide what treaty 27+1 states decide to sign. But there's absolutely nothing to stop British ambassadors having chats with their host governments, and British ministers doing the same with their continenatl counterparts.Tissue_Price said:
The EU will have to negotiate (via back channels, obviously) before A50 as far as I can see.Richard_Nabavi said:
I'd be careful. I think she's bluffing - it's a negotiating stance. It's in everyone's interest to get this done ASAP.Jobabob said:Quick question, as I'm thinking of playing the Article 50 market.
We now know it won't be invoked in 2016 (assuming a May victory). So can we assume Q1 2017?
Possible curveball: May is not able to get it through parliament as europhile Tories rebel on a technicality (i.e. assurances from EU not good enough etc). Result: considerable delay.
Is Q3 2017 therefore value at 20/1?
https://www.skybet.com/politics/european-politics/event/194514690 -
So May then.Alistair said:
Makes it very easy.
Crabb is against gay marriage? I had assumed he was a left-winger. That said I know very little about him.0 -
"Snorted". Now there's a verb to use.surbiton said:Ms Rudd wasn’t finished with Mr Johnson yet. “Boris is the life and soul of the party,” she snorted, in her concluding statement. “But he isn’t the man you want driving you home at the end of the evening!”
What did she mean by that ?0 -
Very wise words, Hurst.HurstLlama said:
Well that depends on one's standpoint, Mr. Cole. When I was at the Home Office I found it a particularly useful time to get decisions through committees because very few people wanted to pay attention or spend the time to quibble. Circulating a 68 page discussion document 48 hours in advance with a very bland executive summary and all the tricky bits put into Appendix IV was, generally speaking, guaranteed to go through on the nod, especially if the meeting was held before lunch.OldKingCole said:
Awful month for decisions, December. Lose around two weeks due to Christmas.anotherDave said:
Article 50 starts a two year clock. You don't want that clock to runout in february, and leave you on the hook for 12 months contribution to the EU budget.Jobabob said:
Explain why that is relevant (not saying it isn't but I simply don't follow the logic).anotherDave said:
Liam Fox made the point on the Sunday Politics, that the EU budget runs Jan-Dec, so you'd want to invoke article 50 so the clock ran out in or before Dec.Jobabob said:Quick question, as I'm thinking of playing the Article 50 market.
We now know it won't be invoked in 2016 (assuming a May victory). So can we assume Q1 2017?
Possible curveball: May is not able to get it through parliament as europhile Tories rebel on a technicality (i.e. assurances from EU not good enough etc). Result: considerable delay.
Is Q3 2017 therefore value at 20/1?
https://www.skybet.com/politics/european-politics/event/194514690 -
Indeed. It was the same source who in April 2015 told me the Tories were at least 50 seats ahead of Labour in England and Wales.RobD said:
To be fair, his source may have been reporting the results of the poll accurately. That the poll was wrong wasn't the fault of his source.TCPoliticalBetting said:
TSE - I hope you do not bet on the basis of your wonderful sources.TheScreamingEagles said:I've heard a rumour from a very reliable source.
PM Gove would keep Ozzy as Chancellor.
I might have to defect from Team Theresa to Team Gove
Is that the same source from CCHQ/REMAIN about the fact that the polls were way ahead for REMAIN and you saw a 12% to 15% win for REMAIN?
or the source a couple of weeks ago (I think) that told you if Cameron went on 24th June that Michael Gove will be George Osborne's campaign manager?
____________________________________________
Very profitable source.0 -
Lost! All those bets on Boris to be next PM. Who said that he was untrustworthy?0
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Justed checked news websites and an hour is a long time in politics currently. Trying to make sense of it. May is obviously clear favourite now though I hope Gove wins. He's one of those rare politicians who shows a genuine interest in the person he's talking to and he clearly has the big vision of where he'd like the UK to be in the future. However, I fear his stint at Education will count against him.0
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Crabb's religious beliefs trumped the requirements of others.. for that reason I could not vote for him. Heck Ian Paisley was more tolerant than he is....Jobabob said:
So May then.Alistair said:
Makes it very easy.
Crabb is against gay marriage? I had assumed he was a left-winger. That said I know very little about him.0 -
She is indeed a Type 1 diabetic and I believe a teetotaller. Not sure why either matter, or if they are connected, but there it is.John_N4 said:
Try to source the accusation that Boris Johnson is a "Putin apologist". It surfaced during the referendum campaign. I mean who actually first called him that. What named person or specific office expressed the opinion? There's no clear answer. That's a hallmark.TudorRose said:
He never goes all the way?surbiton said:So what happens to Nadine now ? Having Criticised Cameron and Osborne for being posh-boys, then Boris leaves her high and dry.
So, what is this Boris scandal ?
There was a reason why Boris wasn't allowed into the proper cabinet, only into the "political" cabinet. He could have got into the cabinet as a minister without portfolio, but he didn't. Why not?
Meanwhile the French National Front is known to be financially supported by the Kremlin.
Keir Giles of Chatham House: "Unlike in Soviet times, Russia is no longer restricted in its choice of foreign friends by considerations of ideology, and one notable result is a surge in links with right-wing and anti-EU parties".
That isn't some loony writing on some silly website somewhere.
The fact that Johnson has difficulty keeping his knob in his trousers - not unusual among politicians - is icing on the cake.
So is the fact that he got himself taped discussing with Darius Guppy having someone beaten up. (The tape is here.)
A third possible route for bringing him down...well, the Tories decided they didn't want Michael Portillo as their leader too. Portillo and Johnson are as English and as British as anyone, but from some Tories' point of view, they aren't. "I am a liberal cosmopolitan and my family is a genetic UN peacekeeping force" didn't play well.
Despite the referendum result, Johnson's future was precarious. So glad I laid him.
I think I will stay out of the Tory leadership market now. Michael Gove was adopted and has no blood family background in the normal sense, and to judge from what his wife says he is indecently ambitious. That may suggest that he will do exactly what he is told, so he may be exactly the sort of person the insiders want.
Theresa May is the darling of the party itself. Is it true that she is a type 1 diabetic, by the way?
Either of them could win.0 -
National - Fox News
Clinton 44 .. Trump 38
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2016/06/29/fox-news-poll-june-2-2016/0 -
Mr Johnson has a reputation as a womaniser. That's all that was.surbiton said:
I haven't but there is something. I cannot imagine a not unusual event like driving someone home would be brought up, unless heavy hints were being given.anotherDave said:
If you've got some dirt, spill it.surbiton said:Ms Rudd wasn’t finished with Mr Johnson yet. “Boris is the life and soul of the party,” she snorted, in her concluding statement. “But he isn’t the man you want driving you home at the end of the evening!”
What did she mean by that ?
But then again, why in the Brexit campaign ?
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If it was May v Boris, I'd have backed May.
May v Gove - much more difficult to decide.0 -
Sam Coates on Sky looks like he's been dragged out of bed!
What a day for lobby hacks.0 -
I hope that someone is videoing the other side so that we can watch it on catch-up next week.0
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0
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Interesting. I tend to find that people look at Appendix IV.HurstLlama said:
Well that depends on one's standpoint, Mr. Cole. When I was at the Home Office I found it a particularly useful time to get decisions through committees because very few people wanted to pay attention or spend the time to quibble. Circulating a 68 page discussion document 48 hours in advance with a very bland executive summary and all the tricky bits put into Appendix IV was, generally speaking, guaranteed to go through on the nod, especially if the meeting was held before lunch.OldKingCole said:
Awful month for decisions, December. Lose around two weeks due to Christmas.anotherDave said:
Article 50 starts a two year clock. You don't want that clock to runout in february, and leave you on the hook for 12 months contribution to the EU budget.Jobabob said:
Explain why that is relevant (not saying it isn't but I simply don't follow the logic).anotherDave said:
Liam Fox made the point on the Sunday Politics, that the EU budget runs Jan-Dec, so you'd want to invoke article 50 so the clock ran out in or before Dec.Jobabob said:Quick question, as I'm thinking of playing the Article 50 market.
We now know it won't be invoked in 2016 (assuming a May victory). So can we assume Q1 2017?
Possible curveball: May is not able to get it through parliament as europhile Tories rebel on a technicality (i.e. assurances from EU not good enough etc). Result: considerable delay.
Is Q3 2017 therefore value at 20/1?
https://www.skybet.com/politics/european-politics/event/19451469
I prefer Appendix B or possibly E if there are more than 8 appendices.0 -
North Carolina - Civitas
Clinton 42 .. Trump 40
https://www.nccivitas.org/2016/hillary-clinton-regains-lead-in-latest-civitas-poll/0 -
Boris did not engineer the referendum. UKIP did with the collaboration of Cameron.rottenborough said:(((Rob Ford))) @robfordmancs 50m50 minutes ago
Boris engineered the largest constitutional crisis in post-war history but won't even put his name forward to clear it up?
What. A. Prat.0 -
Little Vox Pop from my leave Tory dad just now:
Gove is a knob. May looks better option. Liked by both sides. She would eat Corbyn alive
fairly accurate I think!0
