politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The PB/Polling Matters podcast: Reflecting on the longest w

Harry Cole

Just asked a notionally Boris backing MP what they are going to do now...

"I don't know. I don't f------ know."

surbiton said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Lennon said:

Is there something even more Machiavellian going on?...
.

Yes. A combination of Boris making a complete horlicks of team building etc in his campaign team and in settling key principles. Added to Osborne whispering in Gove's ear "go for it" and Sarah Vine encouraging her husband to stick to his principles.

You mean the principle of becoming the Prime Minister. From a Labour perspective, I would prefer Gove to either May or Boris. May would be the more dangerous.

May would be a better PM, but the 400 seats won't be healthy for democracy.

I think the idea that article 50 won't get invoked has got to be completely dead now. All Brexit candidates will say they want it invoked, So all remainer candidates have to say it will be invoked to shut that down. If there is no snap election, and it seems like the Tories are edging away from that, then there is no chance of the party losing power to a remain coalition.

We will now see the true split between the two broad Brexit camps. Gove playing as the anti immigration one will guarantee decent support but this is the Tory party, not UKIp, and I think Theresa will go equally hard on how irresponsible it would be to leave single market etc. I still give her the edge, but it will be close.

There is a delicious schadenfreude for remainers to see Boris get destroyed like this, but on the other hand as he is a closet remainer he probably would have dealt us the most favorable , EU lite deal

nunu said:

How essential is it for city of London to have "passporting"? Any city experts please not mourning remainders.

You don't need a passport. You set up a subsidiary in the individual countries and get local regulatory control.

This is tiresome to do of course, although many banks and insurers will already have local subsidiaries in the major EU countries.

Thought that Boris was making a statement at 11. Nothing on BBC yet.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Well time to burn that 66/1 betting slip

Jeremy Hunt backing Theresa May.

I've got enough losers to light a fire

I have made 63 pence profit on the market which almost wipes out my loss on the Labour leadership market.

Dangerous waters these.

matt said:

It's genuinely useful reading comments here. It gives me a real feel for what Ultras think and believe and it's one that is otherwise risk missing. Choices have consequences.

We have Ultras on here? Gosh. OK.

Theme from Gove camp (he himself the other day, and now Raab):

"I won't point fingers at other people"

= it was all my colleagues' fault; they are useless bastards.

Not IMO a great personality trait.

Alistair said:

So wait, in the space of a month May has gone from claiming she'd scrap the ECHR to saying she'll keep it and the only significant event to happen between then and now is one that would make it far easier to scrap it?

I suppose we are about to see how gullible and easily gulled the Conservative memebership is.

They'll say anything and do anything to hold power.

I'm out, check my avatar ^_~

David_Evershed said:

nunu said:

How essential is it for city of London to have "passporting"? Any city experts please not mourning remainders.

You don't need a passport. You set up a subsidiary in the individual countries and get local regulatory control.

This is tiresome to do of course, although many banks and insurers will already have local subsidiaries in the major EU countries.

And most of the financial companies are big enough to deal with that burden. Right let's get on with it then no FoM.

Never a dull moment around here right now

Tissue_Price said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Well time to burn that 66/1 betting slip

Jeremy Hunt backing Theresa May.

I've got enough losers to light a fire

I've consistently bet against Boris. As at this moment that's looking smart, but it's a roller-coaster ride.

PlatoSaid said:

OldKingCole said:

nunu said:

How essential is it for city of London to have "passporting"? Any city experts please not mourning remainders.

There was an informed (apparently .... I’m not really qualified to judge) post yesterday which suggested that worries about the City’s position were unnecessary and overdone.

@nunu - have a search for two posts by @Travelgall - she offered a great insight.

Those posts were good. There will however be some negative effect - and it is no point ignoring it. It would be better to keep the passport. But it is certainly the case that Germany and France have significant disadvantages which are not necessarily eliminated by having the passport. See my posts on the previous thread this morning.

It would be better to keep it. But there are lots of variables to consider here.

Apparently Boris has written 2 columns, One in which he is standing, and one in which he is not. He may have picked up the wrong one on his way out of the house...

hhahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahhaahahahahahahah

Louise Mensch ‏@LouiseMensch · 40s41 seconds ago

Woke up and digesting Michael Gove's announcement. If there is any doubt about Boris backtracking then of course, I am switching to Gove


total & utter headbanging nutter (now back in US?)


Louise Mensch ‏@LouiseMensch · 46s47 seconds ago
Absolutely nothing matters more than Brexit. Nothing.

SouthamObserver said:

OldKingCole said:

nunu said:

How essential is it for city of London to have "passporting"? Any city experts please not mourning remainders.

There was an informed (apparently .... I’m not really qualified to judge) post yesterday which suggested that worries about the City’s position were unnecessary and overdone.

It kind of depends. If we want the City to be a lightly regulated offshore financial centre passporting is less important. But the risks are huge - 2008 on steroids. I am not sure that is what we or even a number of financial institutions would want.

The irony in that statement is that our regulation is stronger than any of the others in Europe...

Boris is finding out that there are three sorts of people in the Tory party: shits, bloody shits and fucking shits.

https://twitter.com/euanmccolm/status/748459982086148098

gove may win the Cameroonian support from all but Cameron (who is probably backing May even if politically she's not that close to him) - Morgan backing Gove, Osborne presumably pulling strings somewhere - perhaps they've decided the EU is a price worth paying if they can continue their Cameroonian agenda?

Third runway decision deferred.

tlg86 said:

Hunt backs May.

Rats. He was my big win bet. Still I'm green on pretty anything except Boris.

Wonder if Cameron and Gove might have had a little chat over the last few days?

PlatoSaid said:

Morgan backs Gove.

oh dear.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Tissue_Price said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Well time to burn that 66/1 betting slip

Jeremy Hunt backing Theresa May.

I've got enough losers to light a fire

I've consistently bet against Boris. As at this moment that's looking smart, but it's a roller-coaster ride.

I had too - but post-referendum I've lost a bit on him in the last week. But hopefully more than compensated for elsewhere.

My wife has just come off the phone to her sister, a partner in a US-based firm in the City.

First round of redundancies starts on Monday 'as a direct result of brexit'. As she says, the 'smart' Lawyers who voted Leave on the basis of reducing immigration will certainly get their wishes - they'll be doing their own cleaning whilst looking for other jobs.

Meanwhile, the French, who had been holding-up the top-end residential market in London are pulling out of housing transactions all over the leafy suburbs.

It's started. Project Reality.

Can anyone outline to me what appeal they think Gove would have to the general public?

Surely there is no way a Gove led Tory party could win a majority at the General Election.

Perhaps he will be PM until 2019 to oversee Brexit and then stand down in favour of someone more electable.

TCPoliticalBetting said:

PlatoSaid said:

Morgan backs Gove.

oh dear.

True Remainer Morgan backs Gove??? Somebody get me some more medication.

Has Boris actually put in nomination papers yet?

TCPoliticalBetting said:

PlatoSaid said:

Morgan backs Gove.

oh dear.

Osborne's acolytes will line up behind Gove and Osborne will be Gove's chancellor.

murali_s said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/euanmccolm/status/748459982086148098

Haha - what a tw*t he is!

ppffft

regularly used in my group (and in the NMR community at large) to put the date on experimental data.

TheWhiteRabbit said:

bunnco said:

My wife has just come off the phone to her sister, a partner in a US-based firm in the City.

First round of redundancies starts on Monday 'as a direct result of brexit'. As she says, the 'smart' Lawyers who voted Leave on the basis of reducing immigration will certainly get their wishes - they'll be doing their own cleaning whilst looking for other jobs.

Meanwhile, the French, who had been holding-up the top-end residential market in London are pulling out of housing transactions all over the leafy suburbs.

It's started. Project Reality.

There are no planned redundancies at the Silver Circle law firm I'm at, as far as I'm aware. I'm confused why a US operation would act before it knew what the medium term was going to look like.

Everybody is going to use Brexit as the reason for any redundancies at this point. It's only human, and it may even be true.

eek said:

SouthamObserver said:

OldKingCole said:

nunu said:

How essential is it for city of London to have "passporting"? Any city experts please not mourning remainders.

There was an informed (apparently .... I’m not really qualified to judge) post yesterday which suggested that worries about the City’s position were unnecessary and overdone.

It kind of depends. If we want the City to be a lightly regulated offshore financial centre passporting is less important. But the risks are huge - 2008 on steroids. I am not sure that is what we or even a number of financial institutions would want.

The irony in that statement is that our regulation is stronger than any of the others in Europe...

Indeed. And that could give us a competitive advantage. The strength of the regulatory system and the confidence this gives clients is one of the factors which financial firms take into account.

TheWhiteRabbit said:

bunnco said:

My wife has just come off the phone to her sister, a partner in a US-based firm in the City.

First round of redundancies starts on Monday 'as a direct result of brexit'. As she says, the 'smart' Lawyers who voted Leave on the basis of reducing immigration will certainly get their wishes - they'll be doing their own cleaning whilst looking for other jobs.

Meanwhile, the French, who had been holding-up the top-end residential market in London are pulling out of housing transactions all over the leafy suburbs.

It's started. Project Reality.

There are no planned redundancies at the Silver Circle law firm I'm at, as far as I'm aware. I'm confused why a US operation would act before it knew what the medium term was going to look like.

Unless they were looking to make cuts anyway and this is just a good excuse.

Miss Cyclefree, your daughter's right.

It's also interesting to compare and contrast the two major parties as they have very different leadership contests.

Tissue_Price said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Well time to burn that 66/1 betting slip

Jeremy Hunt backing Theresa May.

I've got enough losers to light a fire

Seriously considering standing is code for make me an offer

bunnco said:

My wife has just come off the phone to her sister, a partner in a US-based firm in the City.

First round of redundancies starts on Monday 'as a direct result of brexit'. As she says, the 'smart' Lawyers who voted Leave on the basis of reducing immigration will certainly get their wishes - they'll be doing their own cleaning whilst looking for other jobs.

Meanwhile, the French, who had been holding-up the top-end residential market in London are pulling out of housing transactions all over the leafy suburbs.

It's started. Project Reality.

Sorry but that's planned redundencies using the current built in excuse..

rottenborough said:

MaxPB said:

This also brings up the serious prospect of Theresa and Boris doing a deal where he becomes chancellor under her and delivers her to the final round and brings a chunk of leave support.

Would Boris want to be Chancellor? All that detail.

I have a Hammond next chancellor betslip.

Surely the sensible choice.

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Lennon said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

bunnco said:

My wife has just come off the phone to her sister, a partner in a US-based firm in the City.

First round of redundancies starts on Monday 'as a direct result of brexit'. As she says, the 'smart' Lawyers who voted Leave on the basis of reducing immigration will certainly get their wishes - they'll be doing their own cleaning whilst looking for other jobs.

Meanwhile, the French, who had been holding-up the top-end residential market in London are pulling out of housing transactions all over the leafy suburbs.

It's started. Project Reality.

There are no planned redundancies at the Silver Circle law firm I'm at, as far as I'm aware. I'm confused why a US operation would act before it knew what the medium term was going to look like.

Unless they were looking to make cuts anyway and this is just a good excuse.

It is of course plausible that - whilst no cuts were planned - the financials were very delicate.

I doubt that's the case. Those sort of decisions take months at the best of times not a week...

rottenborough said:

MaxPB said:

This also brings up the serious prospect of Theresa and Boris doing a deal where he becomes chancellor under her and delivers her to the final round and brings a chunk of leave support.

Would Boris want to be Chancellor? All that detail.

Better than Minister for Brexit. He could land Gove with that job if he had power within the May administration.

Corbyn: "'Zio' is a vile epithet. Our Jewish friends are no more responsible for actions of Israel than Muslims are for Islamic State."

So Israel=ISIS....

Nice one Corbyn

rottenborough said:

MaxPB said:

This also brings up the serious prospect of Theresa and Boris doing a deal where he becomes chancellor under her and delivers her to the final round and brings a chunk of leave support.

Would Boris want to be Chancellor? All that detail.

Boris as chancellor :-D

Pulpstar said:

bunnco said:

My wife has just come off the phone to her sister, a partner in a US-based firm in the City.

First round of redundancies starts on Monday 'as a direct result of brexit'. As she says, the 'smart' Lawyers who voted Leave on the basis of reducing immigration will certainly get their wishes - they'll be doing their own cleaning whilst looking for other jobs.

Meanwhile, the French, who had been holding-up the top-end residential market in London are pulling out of housing transactions all over the leafy suburbs.

It's started. Project Reality.

My friend who works at Manchester University has lost his job as a direct result of Brexit. It will affect our universities and science negatively in a big way. And no it is not all about the money we pay to the EU.

I assume a short term research contract dependant on an European funded program that has not been renewed?

I am surprised that there has been an effect that quickly, Horizon 2020 projects should still be secure and most Universities are expecting the science collaboration to continue even if we exit.

In general you are right though about the effect on Universities - a lot of reassuring emails were sent last Friday although its a shame to see they were unjustified.

Mr. Surbiton, not yet, but give it a few hours