politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » David Herdson looks at the post-referendum purpose of UKIP
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » David Herdson looks at the post-referendum purpose of UKIP
The fruitcakes have taken over the asylum. UKIP, which well under a decade ago was a fringe party – it polled only 3.1% in the 2010 general election – has achieved the purpose for which it was created.
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The Congress Party in India is still around almost 70 years after Independence.
On topic, Corbyn will survive, even shadow cab members off the record were saying better for him to lose in a GE rather than something like this, which surely means they don't have the votes.
UKIP are a conundrum. Effective and ineffective at the same time.
A man so thick he once parked his brand new Porsche at a train station car park and forgot he even owned it until his club contacted him....
http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/news-and-comment/my-porsche-forgot-i-even-owned-one-says-jermaine-pennant-2189069.html
Unbelievable.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3658563/Meet-Bregretters-Public-backed-Leave-vote-say-want-STAY-EU-one-admits-didn-t-think-vote-count.html
Anger at being fed lies is a line people are using, not real - they were told they were lies before they voted, why did they only realise they were lies afterwards?
Seems like more people should have applied the Wollaston test - how would I feel the morning afterwards (I felt I would be disappointed in the event of Remain, anxious in event of Leave, and so it has been).
They can't even claim it was something to do with FPTP and they never thought their vote counted in that seat e.g. all that stuff about UKIP voters denying Tory majority in 2010.
It's only fair to apply the same standards to them as they apply to us.
The SNP can take Glasgow and Edinburgh and we keep the border regions and the Shetlands with all the oil in it.
If things are going to shit in 6 months expect a million to say they voted like that though (but by then, too late to do anything)
Brexit is about more than the EU: it’s about class, inequality, and voters feeling excluded from politics.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/commentisfree/2016/jun/24/divided-britain-brexit-money-class-inequality-westminster
Mrs Bucket and the other Labour idiots should take note. John Harris on the trail of sneering graduates and those left behind.
"LONDON — From Brussels to Berlin to Washington, leaders of the Western democratic world awoke Friday morning to a blunt, once-unthinkable rebuke delivered by the flinty citizens of a small island nation in the North Atlantic. Populist anger against the established political order had finally boiled over.
The British had rebelled.
Their stunning vote to leave the European Union presents a political, economic and existential crisis for a bloc already reeling from entrenched problems. But the thumb-in-your-eye message is hardly limited to Britain. The same yawning gap between the elite and mass opinion is fueling a populist backlash in Austria, France, Germany and elsewhere on the Continent — as well as in the United States."
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/25/world/europe/brexit-eu-politics.html?action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=span-abc-region®ion=span-abc-region&WT.nav=span-abc-region&_r=0
I think a joint committee by the Leave camp including Farage will be necessary.
Since Farage controls UKIP with an iron fist, it's imperative to have him sign the Brexit terms too, in order to cover the right flank.
Labour representatives will be needed also, but only Leavers, in order to cover the left flank.
If I ever had doubts about my (relatively recent) conversion to Scottish independence then contributions like yours remind me why it is now the only way ahead.
Scotland is a country not a county.
Note that tomorrow the fiercest opponent of Scottish indendence The Daily Record newspaper comes very close to endorsing it tomorrow on the European issue. The game is up.
That would result of course in a new border a few miles south of Glasgow and no Shetlands or North Sea oil for the SNP, Edinburgh might even become a split city with Holyrood on the wrong side of the border.
It's the same argument the SNP makes now regarding scotland and the EU, so it's fair game.
These are crazy times and my country, the U.K., is likely to be gone but for a diminished core in a few years (we were on the way out anyway) and we face a difficlut path to navigate even to that. I really wished I did not experience such interesting times.
If you split because you want to stay in the EU then those who want to stay in the UK should also have the right to split from you.
It was coming, its been coming for years...this was a chance for a large number of people to make their voice heard where traditional FPTP GE doesn't and they took it.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/23/united-kingdom-two-nations-political-chasm-left
I predict that by next Friday things will have calmed down, unless a banker or a trader had bet the farm on Remain there wont be any short of crisis but a bit of personal political discomfort that will linger on.
Even petrol prices won't rise, Brent Crude fell today by almost as much as the Pound.
I was making the point that attitudes like yours are one of the reasons why Scottish nationalism is the dominant force in politics. It is as it happens fundamentally more attractive than the versions we see down south. Of course I shouldn't really discourage you. You are a recruiting agent for the SNP.
However the real point is that your partition ideas would be rejected not just by Scottish nationalists but by the vast majority of Scottish unionists, because most unionists believe that Scotland is a nation. Now have a look at the Euro poll. It was not just Scotland but every single local authority in the country that voted to Remain in Europe.
Read the Record on line tomorrow. Remember that is coming from the most vehemently anti independence paper in the country. The game is indeed up.
He scared people that Salmond was coming to take their money and their rights.
Otherwise there will be big trouble, not just lots of angry people stomping to the ballot box.
More seriously Milliband managed to lose the election by his own total ineptitude. There are few signs that Labour leadership is improving!
http://www.perc.org.uk/project_posts/trump-and-the-charisma-of-unreason/
Vote Trump because you don't know what he will do next, vote Leave because you do not know what to do next.
It happened in scotland, Brexit shows it may happen elsewhere.
In scotland the working class already had their succesful revolt by throwing out the corrupt and incompetent S.Labour establishment and replacing it with the SNP.
In the rest of the country or indeed the West it hasn't happened yet, but it's getting very close to occurring, in Austria it failed by a few thousand votes last month.
Parties and groups with entirely new ideas and policies, whether left wing or right wing, are mushrooming.
There was the bloke in the Harris video in Stoke when asked aren't you worried about all these warning of how Brexit will screw the economy and the guy basically goes have you seen round here, its been f##ked for decades, how much worse can it get.
At the moment Tories are more of the same and Corbyn is back to the future of the failed 70's.
The fear of SNP rule in a coalition with Labour drove people to the Tories for protection in the last election.
But the SNP's rainbow coalition is straining, ironically now that SLAB have been thrown out they are regarded as the evil establishment, and that is starting to fuel the Tories in scotland.
Re Brexit.
I wouldn't make a prediction, because I couldn't. It would be guesswork. All we had were the polls, which had to speak for themselves, and were changeable.
Before Jo Cox, I said the polls, at face value, were pointing strongly for Brexit, and even people like Hanretty and Kellner were being too cautious in their estimates of the chance of LEAVE.
Afterwards, I said I didn't believe the milking of the tragedy by one side had changed many votes, but most likely had induced a shy-LEAVE factor instead.
After a few results last night, I warned "POLLING DISASTER ALERT."
https://twitter.com/chrislhayes/status/746181566351679492
The problem with Labour or any left wing party is the confusion between international solidarity and globalization.
Many think that support for internationalism is support for globalization.
In times like these were globalization is anathema to the little guy, it tends to doom centre-left parties the world over.
You can be a decent left wing voter and not support globalist institutions, but the Labour and the SNP establishments equate opposition to globalization as bigotry, hence they turn those voters away.
I don't think any models based on the politics as usual will be of much use this year. Trump has torn up the rule book.
However, while - like Rod - I had thought it was Trump's to lose, unlike Rod, I think the last few weeks have lost it for him.
"Culture and personality, not material circumstances, separate Leave and Remain voters. This is not a class conflict so much as a values divide that cuts across lines of age, income, education and even party. A nice way to show this is to examine the relationship between so-called ‘authoritarianism’ questions such as whether children should obey or the death penalty is appropriate, and support for the EU. The British Election Study’s internet panel survey of 2015-16 asked a sample of over 24,000 individuals about their views on these matters and whether they would vote to leave the EU. The graph below, restricted to White British respondents, shows almost no statistically significant difference in EU vote intention between rich and poor. By contrast, the probability of voting Brexit rises from around 20 per cent for those most opposed to the death penalty to 70 per cent for those most in favour. Wealthy people who back capital punishment back Brexit. Poor folk who oppose the death penalty support Remain."
http://www.fabians.org.uk/brexit-voters-not-the-left-behind/
http://pollyvote.com/en/
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/24/so-long-george-osborne-the-so-called-master-strategist/
http://www.culturalcognition.net/blog/
http://www.newyorker.com/humor/borowitz-report/british-lose-right-to-claim-that-americans-are-dumber
This is a dark day,” he said. “But I hold out hope that, come November, Americans could become dumber than us once more"
The FTSE 250 doesn't look too bad when viewed over the year. Am I missing something?
The UK has had its credit rating outlook downgraded to "negative" by the ratings agency Moody's after the country voted to leave the EU.
added: "In Moody's view, the negative effect from lower economic growth will outweigh the fiscal savings from the UK no longer having to contribute to the EU budget."
No election before we've finalised leaving the EU!
and the abstract linked there: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S019188691630232X
Clearly, any claimed link between policies and personality needs to be checked to make sure it doesn't rely on the retracted paper, directly or indirectly.
I think they'll fade away. The EU parliament election was what gave them elected representatives, publicity, and funding. Without that, and without the sovereignty issue they're back to losing Westminster by-elections.
The Conservatives will enter the next election with a Leave MP leader. I'd expect that to make the Conservatives the temporary home of much of UKIP's current support.
UKIP activists joining Con/Lab parties and working to de-select Remain MPs might be an interesting development though.
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France.
Mr Juppe and Mme Le Pen are both advocating an EU referendum. Looks like it will be an issue in the french presidential election.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5vpo9qzsfL4
"rejoin" might become a thing in the future, but not until leave has been carried through all the way. Regardless, there is no more "remain", that's off the table now.
"Few seem willing to accept that people simply passed a rational, considered judgment on the EU. Ordinary people, who might not have PhDs or read the Guardian or know absolutely everything about how the EU works (but then, who does?), have decided they don’t want to be tied to Brussels. That’s it. We shouldn’t twist this, or demonise it, or delegitimise it by saying it’s a coded expression of hatred or confusion, for that is to demean democracy. The people were asked a simple question, and they gave a stirring answer."
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/06/democracy-beauty-glory/
You may well dislike that answer but the one unassailable fact is the people decided and while doing so rubbed the establishments nose in democracy. That is why Remain (and Rump EU for that matter) are in so much shock. Their elitist attitudes of "we always know what's best for you" bypassed if not ignored entirely the very people they needed to have on board. It's a shame because Remain had an important message to send. By simply treating people as idiots and abusing those with an alternative view as racists "TysonTirades" always wins few hearts and even less votes at the ballot box.
We are now in a Kübler-Ross model where Remainers are somewhere between denial and anger. They really only have themselves and the campaign of " project Sneer" to blame. They brought "this mess" as they like to describe it entirely on themselves.
The irony is that, financially, post the EU, its going to be "the man in the street" that suffers the most as a result of an EU exit.
As for me. I have no party any more, I am absolutely disgusted by all of them, but especially the Conservative Party.
Wow, who saw that coming?
Oh, wait...
Instead you took up valuable time by just denouncing any and all opponents of being racist, xenophobic little Englanders. Should have just called them bigots and had done with it.
#EURefResults https://t.co/K5mzsJeYKe
A UKIP by 2020 will have lost its funding, lost its MEP's, may well have seen Farage retire or at least ennobled (ugh!). I suggest the party itself will still be seen as the retirement home for grumpy middle-aged white men. It desperately needs to attract a wider profile. But if you are interested in a career in politics, what young SPAD wannabe is going to join UKIP to get ahead?
It's possible there could be a Westminster by-election in a strongly Leave seat, that allows Farage yet another opportunity to get to the House of Commons. But let's face it, Leave won in spite of his ego-driven antics, not because of them. Even within Leave, there were many who would have happily sent him to St. Kilda to count seabirds for a couple of months. He was reviled by Remain voters - and their determination to keep him out of power will have no doubt been redoubled by the result. UKIP quickly needs a new face if it is to hang around.
It probably needs a rebranding exercise too. We will be independent from the EU by 2020. What else do they want us to be independent from next for heavens sake? And the UK may well be a reduced, disunited kingdom