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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Cameron’s finding You Can’t Always Get What EU Want

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    England Out by 1million
    Wales out by 90k
    So far
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    Question for those in the know, how likely is the BoE to raise interest rates to defend Sterling?

    Or are we likely to see the opposite??
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956
    David H - I think 5% is going to be almost bang on. Congrats!
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,422
    MikeL said:

    Surely Curtice will call it any minute now.

    For which side?
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    LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941

    Scotland and Northern Ireland vote Remain, England and Wales vote Leave. Is this going to cause problems?

    My entire life I have believed the solution to NI was to be incorporated into Scotland. A Federal Republic of Scotland, NI and Ireland would be a reasonably strong state. Of course NI would object.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Confirmed: Wales votes Leave.
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Truss still thinks it's close...
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    tlg86 said:

    Will Carney resign?

    You'd hope so.

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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,146
    SeanT said:

    Chuka Umunna basically just blamed Corbyn.

    Blamed Corbyn for scheming his way to the result he and his party's core voters wanted? That's a strange accusation to throw around.
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    Wales voting LEAVE by 53% to 47%.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    tlg86 said:

    Will Carney resign?

    Why should he ?

    His £ predictions seem to be coming true....
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    YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740

    If we do leave, are all these talking heads who keep yapping about the amazing benefits of being in the EU going to campaign, in the next few GEs, to rejoin? Presumably with the full Schengen/currency union, since we won't rejoin with opt-outs.

    Or is the dream dead for them?

    (The nationalist parties may still think it is a sellable line. But what about about the Labour and LibDem and Tory remainers?)

    No. If we can't win on the current terms we can't win on the much, much worse new member terms. This is it.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,167
    edited June 2016
    We have been preparing for the GDPR regulations at work, looks like we stick with Data Protection Act 1998 after all, just one of many consequences of Brexit to come
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    This BBC infographic is the worst I have ever seen. Bring me the graphics designers head on a platter immediately.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    edited June 2016
    Sky saying 72% TO

    Out 51.4%
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    murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,045
    SeanT said:

    surbiton said:

    Birmingham going Leave ? Then it is OVER !!! 2 years of recession coming.

    I expect a year long recession. This will be painful. But in the longer - much better.
    Disagree - we could be on a downward spiral for years to come. We've made a decision to make ourselves much poorer. The shit hasn't even been ejected yet let alone hitting the proverbial fan. WE ARE F*CKED.
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    Leave lead going in only one direction, up over 700,000 now.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,427
    So, now we are out of EU, who ya gonna blame?
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    PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    SeanT said:

    Chuka Umunna basically just blamed Corbyn.

    It's good to have a consistent party line you can apply regardless of the event you're commenting on.
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    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    kjohnw said:

    Surely Corbyn is toast

    Why?
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    hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    South Hams 53% remain. Oh how are you feeling this morning Sarah?!!!!!
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    pinkrose said:

    Leave has won Birmingham WTF!!!!!!

    asian outers
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,449

    Scotland and Northern Ireland vote Remain, England and Wales vote Leave. Is this going to cause problems?

    Correction - Unionist Northern Ireland for LEAVE, Nationalist Northern Ireland for REMAIN :)
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,422

    BIRMINGHAM IS LEAVE

    Surely the last redoubt?
    The gap is already much bigger than the number of votes from Brum.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    Birmingham going Leave ? Then it is OVER !!! 2 years of recession coming.

    Yes, would be over then, think will call it a night. Well, we now join Norway and Switzerland outside the EU and neither are doing too badly even if we face some short-term pain. Goodnight
    Free movement of people when Immigration won it for Leave ?
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    LucyJonesLucyJones Posts: 651
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tunbridge Wells Remain 55% Leave 45%

    Makes the Sevenoaks result look more remarkable
    Sevenoaks has been plastered with Vote Leave posters/placards for weeks. Only started to see a couple of Remain posters in the past week.

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    hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Leave 750k ahead!
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    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Please get a Kinnock on.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Another surprising one: East Hertfordshire votes Leave.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,977
    surbiton said:

    kjohnw said:

    Surely Corbyn is toast

    Actually not. He read the Labour voters better than the shadow cabinet.

    What if Labour moves a motion of no confidence ?

    I wonder what the unions will make of it all.

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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Truss contemplating her career on the backbenches

    If she survives that deselection vote....
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    murali_s said:

    SeanT said:

    surbiton said:

    Birmingham going Leave ? Then it is OVER !!! 2 years of recession coming.

    I expect a year long recession. This will be painful. But in the longer - much better.
    Disagree - we could be on a downward spiral for years to come. We've made a decision to make ourselves much poorer. The shit hasn't even been ejected yet let alone hitting the proverbial fan. WE ARE F*CKED.
    Go and read the IFS report. Or the IMF report. Basically, get some fucking data into your brain instead of running around like a headless chicken.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941

    The lead is over 600k votes now. Brum and Leeds can't pull this back.

    750k now. 51.7% :D
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    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    John_M said:

    This BBC infographic is the worst I have ever seen. Bring me the graphics designers head on a platter immediately.

    Probably they were told they didn't have to programme a Leave 'lead/ win'. Remember how they had to re-do the swingometer last year.
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    eekeek Posts: 25,027
    surbiton said:

    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    Birmingham going Leave ? Then it is OVER !!! 2 years of recession coming.

    Yes, would be over then, think will call it a night. Well, we now join Norway and Switzerland outside the EU and neither are doing too badly even if we face some short-term pain. Goodnight
    Free movement of people when Immigration won it for Leave ?
    Switzerland don't have free movement.. We need to find a way to ensure we don't - for that is clearly what people want
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    hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591

    kjohnw said:

    Surely Corbyn is toast

    Why?
    Corbyn having a big chuckle I should think - he is a secret leaver whatever anyone else says!

    I'm delighted for his brother Piers - went big on leave on his weatheraction website yesterday.....and fully vindicated.
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited June 2016
    God, why is Dimbleby so irritable tonight.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,427
    surbiton said:

    kjohnw said:

    Surely Corbyn is toast

    Actually not. He read the Labour voters better than the shadow cabinet.

    What if Labour moves a motion of no confidence ?
    Short term - Labour would be wise to step back and watch Tories tear themselves apart.

    In longer term - time to go back to EU with a proposal that you can be a member with some kind of quota on migration. I think free movement is over. May take a while for rest of EU to catch up.
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    Sky's line now is that there never should have been a referendum!

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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2016
    If Blair has called this referendum any time between 1997 and 2003 he would have won with about 70%.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,205
    AndyJS said:

    If Blair has called this referendum any time between 1997 and 2003 he would have won with about 70%.

    Correct.
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    eek said:

    surbiton said:

    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    Birmingham going Leave ? Then it is OVER !!! 2 years of recession coming.

    Yes, would be over then, think will call it a night. Well, we now join Norway and Switzerland outside the EU and neither are doing too badly even if we face some short-term pain. Goodnight
    Free movement of people when Immigration won it for Leave ?
    Switzerland don't have free movement.. We need to find a way to ensure we don't - for that is clearly what people want
    The IEA Brext prize suggested EEA without free movement.

    http://www.iea.org.uk/publications/research/the-iea-brexit-prize-a-blueprint-for-britain-openness-not-isolation
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    AndyJS said:

    If Blair has called this referendum any time between 1997 and 2003 he would have won with about 70%.

    I'd suggest people started going off the EU in 2004.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Southampton:

    Remain: 49,738
    Leave: 57,927
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941

    Sky's line now is that there never should have been a referendum!

    That will be the line of the whole Establishment tomorrow!
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    OUTOUT Posts: 569
    So'ton Leave.
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    brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited June 2016
    I'm getting really angry with the presenters keeping on asking whether we should even have had the vote.
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    Southampton votes LEAVE.
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Southampton. IN 49,738 - OUT 57,927.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Boulton is embarrassing himself on Sky

    Southamton goes leave
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    Camden barely denting the overall average.
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    JennyFreemanJennyFreeman Posts: 488

    Sky's line now is that there never should have been a referendum!

    Yep the Islingtonites don't really believe in democracy do they?
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,427
    AndyJS said:

    If Blair has called this referendum any time between 1997 and 2003 he would have won with about 70%.

    Long ago, far away, and so much better...
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    Boulton's basiaclly crying.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Luton Leave! Asians For Ouuuuuuut!
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    EPGEPG Posts: 6,033
    bazzer said:

    does anybody think we will actually leave? Won't it just get bogged down in negotiations which will be put to people in an election or another vote and we will end up staying in having given the EU a good kicking which is what most voters probably wanted? Greece or Ireland style?

    It's called democracy. Live with it. If you want to be European, don't be in a country that doesn't.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,427
    Danny565 said:

    God, why is Dimbleby so irritable tonight.

    No mars bars?
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    hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Southampton 53.3% leave. Not as much as thought earlier in the evening.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,449
    eek said:

    surbiton said:

    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    Birmingham going Leave ? Then it is OVER !!! 2 years of recession coming.

    Yes, would be over then, think will call it a night. Well, we now join Norway and Switzerland outside the EU and neither are doing too badly even if we face some short-term pain. Goodnight
    Free movement of people when Immigration won it for Leave ?
    Switzerland don't have free movement.. We need to find a way to ensure we don't - for that is clearly what people want
    Switzerland is inside Schengen. Go to CERN in Geneva, and just a few hundred yards away is the French border - no checkpoints!
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Luton also votes OUT. But Tower Hamlets voted to stay IN. So Asians did not vote the same way.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,977
    SeanT said:

    surbiton said:

    Birmingham going Leave ? Then it is OVER !!! 2 years of recession coming.

    I expect a year long recession. This will be painful. But in the longer - much better.

    A year long recession - four quarters of negative growth - will take years to recover from. More cuts, probable tax rises, lots of lost jobs.

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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,144

    surbiton said:

    kjohnw said:

    Surely Corbyn is toast

    Actually not. He read the Labour voters better than the shadow cabinet.

    What if Labour moves a motion of no confidence ?
    Short term - Labour would be wise to step back and watch Tories tear themselves apart.

    In longer term - time to go back to EU with a proposal that you can be a member with some kind of quota on migration. I think free movement is over. May take a while for rest of EU to catch up.
    Tories far less likely to tear themselves apart now.
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    Kirklees votes leave. Thought there might have been a Jo Cox effect there.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,449
    Has Brum actually come through officially?
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Brum is the killer of the night
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    PlatoSaid said:

    Boulton is embarrassing himself on Sky

    Southamton goes leave

    What did he do/say?
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    hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591

    Boulton's basiaclly crying.

    They should replay that 2 hours from 10pm to midnight last night for eternity to show just how out of touch Sky News is with so much of the UK
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,427
    God I really hate Hilton now.
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,094
    Only Aberdeenshire left for a Scotland full house for Remain.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,205
    Can we scrap HS2 as promised by Dave?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    Leave almost a million ahead.
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    LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941
    Why is Sky so far behind the BBC on their count despite showing results at the same time?
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    brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    surbiton said:

    Luton also votes OUT. But Tower Hamlets voted to stay IN. So Asians did not vote the same way.

    People are not monolithic blocs? Who knew?!
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,427
    PlatoSaid said:

    Brum is the killer of the night

    No
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    hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Where is Amber Crudd? I'd love to see her reaction this morning!
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    John_N4John_N4 Posts: 553
    edited June 2016
    Carl Bildt: "I see that even the Zimbabwe currency is now gaining ground against the UK pound."

    Marine Le Pen calls for "exit" referendums across the EU.
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    BlueberryBlueberry Posts: 408

    I'm getting really angry with the presenters keeping on asking whether we should even have had the vote.

    I'm getting angry because the BBC are referring to 'educated voters'. Leave it out, we've all had an opportunity to hear the arguments and make our minds up. Nothing to do with having a BA.
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    JenSJenS Posts: 91
    Corbyn hasn't been kept in by support from the traditional Labour voters who went Out. He's been kept in by support from London members and Three Quidders and Trafe Union leaders. They will blame Corbyn for this. He looks very vulnerable to me.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Boulton's basiaclly crying.

    He's crap. Terrible columns in STimes and vacuous on the telly
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    SeanT said:

    surbiton said:

    Birmingham going Leave ? Then it is OVER !!! 2 years of recession coming.

    I expect a year long recession. This will be painful. But in the longer - much better.

    A year long recession - four quarters of negative growth - will take years to recover from. More cuts, probable tax rises, lots of lost jobs.

    What about the locusts?
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,369

    kjohnw said:

    Surely Corbyn is toast

    Why?
    Labour has a fairly fundamental question whether to adopt a more migration-sceptic position or not, and that's unrelated to Corbyn, who has merely observed truthfully that it was a requirement in the EU. I noticed that McDonnell said this evening that Labour may need to rethink its position, and Watson has said it too. I suspect we need to grapple with that more than we need merely to switch leaders.

    I'm going to call it a night - good night all.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Good result for Remain in Warwick: 58.8% Remain, 41.2% Leave.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,393
    Dumfries in. Every single local authority area in Scotland voted remain. This will put huge pressure on Nicola to act.
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    tlg86 said:

    Can we scrap HS2 as promised by Dave?

    Yes Please!

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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    G'night NP!
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    LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941

    Only Aberdeenshire left for a Scotland full house for Remain.

    Indyref 2 is coming for you
    Indyref 2 is coming for you
    Indyref is coming
    For you........
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    BlueberryBlueberry Posts: 408

    SeanT said:

    surbiton said:

    Birmingham going Leave ? Then it is OVER !!! 2 years of recession coming.

    I expect a year long recession. This will be painful. But in the longer - much better.

    A year long recession - four quarters of negative growth - will take years to recover from. More cuts, probable tax rises, lots of lost jobs.

    What about the locusts?
    And the Jungle in Dover?
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,427
    edited June 2016
    !
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,453
    Well at least the NHS will soon be awash with extra government money and it will be all lovely like the right hand side of that leave referendum broadcast.

    I was looking forward to 5% cheaper fuel, too, but since we import a lot of our fuel I am guessing it just got a lot more expensive....
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    OUTOUT Posts: 569
    DavidL said:

    Dumfries in. Every single local authority area in Scotland voted remain. This will put huge pressure on Nicola to act.

    2 years to act on it.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,977

    SeanT said:

    surbiton said:

    Birmingham going Leave ? Then it is OVER !!! 2 years of recession coming.

    I expect a year long recession. This will be painful. But in the longer - much better.

    A year long recession - four quarters of negative growth - will take years to recover from. More cuts, probable tax rises, lots of lost jobs.

    What about the locusts?

    Yep, it's hilarious.

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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    AndyJS said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Boulton is embarrassing himself on Sky

    Southamton goes leave

    What did he do/say?
    He's just so biased. Same stablel as Faisal.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941

    Question for those in the know, how likely is the BoE to raise interest rates to defend Sterling?

    Or are we likely to see the opposite??

    The BoE's job is to use interest rates to defend inflation, not Sterling.
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    EPGEPG Posts: 6,033
    DavidL said:

    Dumfries in. Every single local authority area in Scotland voted remain. This will put huge pressure on Nicola to act.

    There will definitely be a referendum. If Farage continues to get nasty about decent people versus (non-EU!) immigrants in Bolton, it will go in the direction not previously seen in 2014.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,920

    Please get a Kinnock on.

    How much has Brexit cost that family? :smiley:
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    surbiton said:

    kjohnw said:

    Surely Corbyn is toast

    Actually not. He read the Labour voters better than the shadow cabinet.

    What if Labour moves a motion of no confidence ?
    Short term - Labour would be wise to step back and watch Tories tear themselves apart.

    In longer term - time to go back to EU with a proposal that you can be a member with some kind of quota on migration. I think free movement is over. May take a while for rest of EU to catch up.
    I know I'm essentially repeating a post I made earlier this week, but I believe it bears repetition.

    Free movement of labour is Europe's equivalent of the 2nd amendment. Both written in very different times for very different circumstances. Free movement didn't matter when it was the EU9 - as the stats show, migration was broadly neutral for the UK.

    Accession of much poorer countries has changed that dynamic completely. None of us are going to agree on immigration into this country, but look at the impact on places like Poland and Lithuania.

    The individuals are doing well (they're benefiting from UK, French and German level wages and welfare), but the source countries have been badly impacted. The Poles are looking to import Belorussians to look after the Polish elderly and put in Polish central heating and so on. A third of Lithuanians are now abroad.

    It has to be tempered somehow, for the benefit of both source and target countries. Universal principles can't be cleaved to under all circumstances, it just doesn't make sense.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,427
    News reader on Beeb sounding like a funeral dirge.
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Remain 34 on BF
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    OUTOUT Posts: 569
    Hey, just remembered Ruth wants to go it alone for the Scot Cons if leave.
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    hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    DavidL said:

    Dumfries in. Every single local authority area in Scotland voted remain. This will put huge pressure on Nicola to act.

    Makes a 2nd referendum inevitable I would have thought.
This discussion has been closed.