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  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    SouthamObserver said:

    John_N4 said:

    Remain consistently performing above par in London.

    London stands alone. It really does. This is over.

    Greenwich too close to call is surprising. Greenwich itself is more like Lambeth than outer London.
  • RodCrosby
    RodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Re-Re-Crossover...
  • pbr2013
    pbr2013 Posts: 649
    rottenborough said:

    No Brexit people ever seem to want to trigger article 50. Yet they have spent months arguing for exactly that.

    I do.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    JM Morgan, forecast — Leave 51.5%.
  • williamglenn
    williamglenn Posts: 56,289
    rottenborough said:

    No Brexit people ever seem to want to trigger article 50. Yet they have spent months arguing for exactly that.

    They seem to think that our Brexit vote will cause Brussels to disappear in a puff of smoke and render the whole discussion irrelevant.
  • Gallowgate
    Gallowgate Posts: 20,709
    South Lakeland stops a Cumbria clean sweep!
  • weejonnie
    weejonnie Posts: 3,820
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    GarethoftheVale2 said:

    Leave 3% above par in Merton

    KentRising said:

    Merton, at 67% for Remain, par.

    Which is it?
    Par - slightly over by Andy (66.2)
  • OUT
    OUT Posts: 569
    Betfair tying itself in knots.
  • John_N4
    John_N4 Posts: 553
    Hanretty: 90% prediction interval: Remain 46.1% to 48.1% <- that's a very small interval
  • Tissue_Price
    Tissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    rottenborough said:

    No Brexit people ever seem to want to trigger article 50. Yet they have spent months arguing for exactly that.

    The sensible ones don't want it triggering tomorrow.
  • KentRising
    KentRising Posts: 2,926
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    GarethoftheVale2 said:

    Leave 3% above par in Merton

    KentRising said:

    Merton, at 67% for Remain, par.

    Which is it?
    Merton only 62.9% Remain, so I'm wrong. 3% below par for Remain there.
  • SimonStClare
    SimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited June 2016
    Darlington, IN 24,172 - OUT 30,994

    SKY National - IN 50% OUT 50%
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,722
    Another Labour heartland votes out...Darlington.
  • tlg86
    tlg86 Posts: 26,950
    RACISM ALERT: Erewash votes to leave 61:39
  • bunnco
    bunnco Posts: 169
    recount in South Norfolk - 'single figure' discrepancy on number of ballots counted against verified total - probably as a result of a single 20-vote bundle containing 21 ballots.
  • NoEasyDay
    NoEasyDay Posts: 454
    At what point can i open my bottle ouzu and celebrate.

    Freedom.
  • Philip_Thompson
    Philip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Did I read right that Carmarthenshire has voted Leave? That was supposed to be Remain ...
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    Darlington out
  • Gallowgate
    Gallowgate Posts: 20,709
    Will Durham vote leave?
  • MikeL
    MikeL Posts: 7,809
    South Lakeland Remain.
  • RodCrosby
    RodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Darlington slightly better for LEAVE...
  • hunchman
    hunchman Posts: 2,591
    LEAVE back in front.

    Come on.
  • RealBritain
    RealBritain Posts: 255
    Freggles said:

    I can't sleep. I am going to be a zombie at work at 9am.

    Try again at 4am

    Almost exactly the same position here. I "officially" declared my sign-off a while back after getting too excited by Louise Mensch again, but ultimately this race is simply too close and mesmerising, with too much at stake, to switch off so late on.
  • alex.
    alex. Posts: 4,658
    rottenborough said:

    No Brexit people ever seem to want to trigger article 50. Yet they have spent months arguing for exactly that.

    It's almost like they've just woken up to the consequences of what they've done...
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    SouthamObserver said:

    AndyJS said:

    It's going to come as a shock to a lot of people in London that there are so many people living elsewhere. They're about to be outvoted by the shires.

    This is absolutely true.

    What is also true, though, is that London puts into the UK economy much more than it takes out.

    Absolutely, the whole country has to come together after this.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    AndyJS said:

    JM Morgan, forecast — Leave 51.5%.

    That's almost certainly correct. I think SpreadEx will be sending me a little under 10k tomorrow :)
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    S Ribble and Rochdale vote Leave

    Rochdale 60% Leave
  • Philip_Thompson
    Philip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Tissue_Price said:

    rottenborough said:

    No Brexit people ever seem to want to trigger article 50. Yet they have spent months arguing for exactly that.

    The sensible ones don't want it triggering tomorrow.
    The timing is in our hands. Why would we throw that away?
  • KentRising
    KentRising Posts: 2,926
    Worcester LEAVE!
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Worcester 54% Leave
  • nunu
    nunu Posts: 6,024
    SouthamObserver said:

    AndyJS said:

    It's going to come as a shock to a lot of people in London that there are so many people living elsewhere. They're about to be outvoted by the shires.

    This is absolutely true.

    What is also true, though, is that London puts into the UK economy much more than it takes out.

    So what? As a leftie you believe in redistribution.
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    Worcester leave!
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    Leave lead over 150k!
  • PlatoSaid
    PlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Brum 63.7% turnout say Sky
  • NeilVW
    NeilVW Posts: 749
    Mrs Duffy strikes
    Rochdale 60% Leave
  • weejonnie
    weejonnie Posts: 3,820
    tlg86 said:

    RACISM ALERT: Erewash votes to leave 61:39

    Should be 56:44 on forecasts
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    I'm going to break my exclamation mark key at this rate.
  • GarethoftheVale2
    GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,350
    Worcester one of the bellweathers goes 54%- 46%
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    If Birmingham votes Leave it really is over I think.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    edited June 2016
    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:

    JM Morgan, forecast — Leave 51.5%.

    That's almost certainly correct. I think SpreadEx will be sending me a little under 10k tomorrow :)
    Gonna buy PB a new server? :D
  • IanB2
    IanB2 Posts: 52,310
    AndyJS said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    John_N4 said:

    Remain consistently performing above par in London.

    London stands alone. It really does. This is over.

    Greenwich too close to call is surprising. Greenwich itself is more like Lambeth than outer London.
    Greenwich is a funny mix of posh areas like Blackheath and some really poor estates around Kidbrooke (being redeveloped) and Woolwich
  • MyBurningEars
    MyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    Sky claiming that Tandridge contains Clacton and Carswell lol - they're mixing it up with Tendring
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,075
    Rochdale goes LEAVE
  • SandyRentool
    SandyRentool Posts: 23,156
    Worcester Woman votes Leave!
  • tlg86
    tlg86 Posts: 26,950
    edited June 2016
    16 and 17 year olds could have made all the difference (had they been allowed to vote).
  • RodCrosby
    RodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    MikeL said:

    South Lakeland Remain.

    Phonebox for Farron...
  • hunchman
    hunchman Posts: 2,591
    Caroline Spelman is the Tory version of Angela Eagle!
  • MP_SE
    MP_SE Posts: 3,642
    HYUFD said:

    S Ribble and Rochdale vote Leave

    Rochdale 60% Leave

    Gillian Duffy's constituency.
  • taffys
    taffys Posts: 9,753
    Wales FFS.

    Quite, quite incredible
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,075
    Boston 76% LEAVE!
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    @PeterKellner1

    Seems we are heading for result bad for UK, bad for pollsters and (least important) embarrassing for me
  • tyson
    tyson Posts: 6,122
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Another Labour heartland votes out...Darlington.

    I've given up on the WWC. Lumpen, racist proletarian. George Orwell called them right. I'm going to devote my attentions to other noble causes like saving the badgers.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    John_N4 said:

    Hanretty: 90% prediction interval: Remain 46.1% to 48.1% <- that's a very small interval</p>

    I think that's a little low: I would reckon 47-49.
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    NeilVW said:

    Mrs Duffy strikes
    Rochdale 60% Leave

    :smiley:
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Vale of Glamorgan Remain 50.7 Leave 49.3
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Vale of Glamorgan — Remain.
  • PlatoSaid
    PlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    edited June 2016
    Boston Out
    Glamorgan In
    Telford Out

    Leave 50.2%
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,722
    It is interesting...several years ago it was all thought naively that Tory voters on the whole wanted to leave, Labour remain.

    What we are seeing are huge areas of working class areas that used to be Labour heartlands going stongly Leave, and it seems the richer SE Tory areas IN.
  • CornishBlue
    CornishBlue Posts: 840
    RodCrosby said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Hanretty 3am update:

    Predicted probability of Britain Remaining: 0

    https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/eu-referendum-rolling-forecasts-1a625014af55#.ye5zxykcb

    LOL. Betfair had it at over 90% this morning...

    It is a joke. The betting markets will never be believed again. This after the opinion polls were dismissed for all time in the general election. Anecdotes are the way forward!
  • tlg86
    tlg86 Posts: 26,950
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Boston 76% LEAVE!

    Wow.
  • hunchman
    hunchman Posts: 2,591
    1.4250 slide slide slide!
  • Indigo
    Indigo Posts: 9,966
    Havant 62% LEAVE.

    Poor Old Alan Mak, What A Shame.
  • OUT
    OUT Posts: 569
    fitalass said:

    Considering the EU Ref results overall in Scotland, extremely embarrassing result for Angus Robertson MP in Moray as Leader of the SNP at Westminster. Whatever the result, I hope that that his opponents in Westminster took note of the how close the vote was...

    Your tory cousins are the ones voting leave. Look south for your anger.
  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    Coventry for leave!
  • tlg86
    tlg86 Posts: 26,950
    hunchman said:

    Caroline Spelman is the Tory version of Angela Eagle!

    What did she have to resign over?
  • hunchman
    hunchman Posts: 2,591
    GBPUSD 1.42 weeeeeeeeeeeee!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  • Tissue_Price
    Tissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Curtice moves Betfair doesn't he?!
  • IanB2
    IanB2 Posts: 52,310
    Judging from the way Betfair rapidly crossed over as curtice was summing up on the bbc, I think Betfair is simply following the bbc - who as most of us have spotted appear to be a little behind the curve
  • GarethoftheVale2
    GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,350
    Coventry was 54% remain on Andy's spreadsheet but just went 56% leave
  • weejonnie
    weejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Pound at 1.43 - either the forecast of it crashing to parity was wrong or people with more money than the sense to look here are in the market. (May change of course)
  • RodCrosby
    RodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    @PeterKellner1

    Seems we are heading for result bad for UK, bad for pollsters and (least important) embarrassing for me

    Again?
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Coventry and Scarborough vote Leave
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,722
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Boston 76% LEAVE!

    Only 76%.... ;-)
  • John_M
    John_M Posts: 7,503
    alex. said:

    rottenborough said:

    No Brexit people ever seem to want to trigger article 50. Yet they have spent months arguing for exactly that.

    It's almost like they've just woken up to the consequences of what they've done...
    Good lord. What has article 50 got to do with me? The question wasn't "John, do you want to leave the European Union, and while we're at it, when do you think we should invoke article 50, and if you've any ideas on what our post-referendum negotiating stance should be, please jot that on the back of the fecking polling card", was it?
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    Right - all green, and if we leave I'll get my first ever four figure political bet win!
  • Gallowgate
    Gallowgate Posts: 20,709
    Coventry 55% LEAVE
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    IanB2 said:

    AndyJS said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    John_N4 said:

    Remain consistently performing above par in London.

    London stands alone. It really does. This is over.

    Greenwich too close to call is surprising. Greenwich itself is more like Lambeth than outer London.
    Greenwich is a funny mix of posh areas like Blackheath and some really poor estates around Kidbrooke (being redeveloped) and Woolwich
    Yeah, but with Lambeth voting 75% Remain it's odd to have such a big difference. I'm wondering whether the report of it being close is wrong.
  • MP_SE
    MP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Indigo said:

    Havant 62% LEAVE.

    Poor Old Alan Mak, What A Shame.

    Awkward.
  • KentRising
    KentRising Posts: 2,926
    Coventry LEAVE!

    Beware the non-London Commonwealth vote!
  • Tissue_Price
    Tissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    IanB2 said:

    Judging from the way Betfair rapidly crossed over as curtice was summing up on the bbc, I think Betfair is simply following the bbc - who as most of us have spotted appear to be a little behind the curve

    Gosh, it's not like that happened 13 months ago either, is it? Betfair is clueless.
  • AramintaMoonbeamQC
    AramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,901
    GIN1138 said:

    NeilVW said:

    Mrs Duffy strikes
    Rochdale 60% Leave

    :smiley:
    Never in doubt.
  • SouthamObserver
    SouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    AndyJS said:

    If Birmingham votes Leave it really is over I think.

    Even a close loss is very good for Leave.

  • Thrak
    Thrak Posts: 494
    AndyJS said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    AndyJS said:

    It's going to come as a shock to a lot of people in London that there are so many people living elsewhere. They're about to be outvoted by the shires.

    This is absolutely true.

    What is also true, though, is that London puts into the UK economy much more than it takes out.

    Absolutely, the whole country has to come together after this.
    Not going to happen. Too many angry people with too much to lose, those who already know this plus those who don't.
  • PlatoSaid
    PlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    tlg86 said:

    16 and 17 year olds could have made all the difference (had they been allowed to vote).

    And your point is caller? That naive and idealistic voters favour a certain POV?
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,722
    Lots of midland cities / towns voting out...Coventry, Tamworth, Telford,
  • Tim_B
    Tim_B Posts: 7,669
    Isn't kellner the German word for waiter?
  • williamglenn
    williamglenn Posts: 56,289
    hunchman said:

    Caroline Spelman is the Tory version of Angela Eagle!

    Harsh.
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    GarethoftheVale2 said:

    Coventry was 54% remain on Andy's spreadsheet but just went 56% leave

    The Midlands are going to take us to Brexit. IMO.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    This is over.
  • OUT
    OUT Posts: 569
    Dave's diary reads simply "Bugger"
  • RodCrosby
    RodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Out back in front. Remain collapsing on BF.

    Obviously most bettors are glued to the TV totalizers, which are almost meaningless.
  • CornishBlue
    CornishBlue Posts: 840
    SeanT said:

    You know, in the end, YOU DON'T FUCK WITH THE BRITS

    MOGGSTER IS ABOUT TO BE ON THE BBC

    :D

    Time for the Music

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SISjSXsb1xU
  • Freggles
    Freggles Posts: 3,487
    Darlington 5% over par for LEAVE continuing strong performance in North East.
  • nunu
    nunu Posts: 6,024
    Looks like my prediction of shy leavers over the last two days was right. Don't call one side murders if you want to win their vote.
  • Pong
    Pong Posts: 4,693
    edited June 2016
    Spin have completely given up

    & Ladbrokes...

    Ladbrokes Politics Verified account 
    ‏@LadPolitics
    Without doubt the craziest, fastest moving political betting market in recent history #EUref


    Brendon Hope ‏@BrendonHope · 43m
    @LadPolitics like taking candy off a baby.


    Like taking candy off a baby, indeed.
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    How many voters in Brum?
  • John_N4
    John_N4 Posts: 553
    Australian, Canadian and Indian voters swing it for Leave - lol
  • weejonnie
    weejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Remain just got (even more) slaughtered in Boston.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    This has been - by a mile - my most profitable betting evening of all time.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,722
    KentRising said:

    Coventry LEAVE!

    Beware the non-London Commonwealth vote!

    Doesn't appear they like being called Little Englanders...
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