politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The results so far have developed not necessarily to Remain
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went to bed at 9.30 ... and just woke up. are remain romping to victory as expected? my eyes dont seem to be focusing correctly0
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Pound falling again!0
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Irrespective of who won - assuming it's 51:49 either way - we need to take a big, deep breath. The country is deeply split.
We don't want the current EU. We don't want glorious isolation.
Irrespective of what Juncker says, we need to find a place that is outside the political structure of the EU, that does not lead to hundreds of thousands of non-citizens claiming benefits, but which keeps us on good terms with our neighbours.
I'd like Gove and Cameron and Johnson to realise that there is a solution that satisfies 70% of the population out there.0 -
Cable below 1.44 again0
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Nationally now Leave 50.2% Remain 49.8%0
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How? I really can't see it. The Midlands is going to be huge for Leave.SeanT said:This is just incredibly close
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Liverpool have declared too! That's one of the big northern remain cities declared already.Lowlander said:Huge amounts of Scotland and some of London are already tallied yet Remain are behind even now. It doesnt look good at all for remain. But Remain are still favourites? WTF!
The bulk of the North West (outside Liverpool and Manchester) will be overwhelmingly for Leave.0 -
Population of Gtr London: 8.5msurbiton said:London can only even out for Remain. It is Birmingham that might swing it one way or the other.
Population of Met Counties: 11.6m
Population of the rest of England: c.35m0 -
Richmondshire Out
Castle Point Out
Maidstone Out
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If Birmingham is less than 55% for remain I think we can *almost* call a Leave victory.SouthamObserver said:
Brum will be very good for Leave. Close to parity.surbiton said:London can only even out for Remain. It is Birmingham that might swing it one way or the other.
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David Davis very humble right now. I personally really like him. I think he would have been much better for the country longer term than Cameron.0
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Vince Cable predicts a "bloodbath" tomorrow.0
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Given the makeup of the HoC I think that's pretty likely.rcs1000 said:Irrespective of who won - assuming it's 51:49 either way - we need to take a big, deep breath. The country is deeply split.
We don't want the current EU. We don't want glorious isolation.
Irrespective of what Juncker says, we need to find a place that is outside the political structure of the EU, that does not lead to hundreds of thousands of non-citizens claiming benefits, but which keeps us on good terms with our neighbours.
I'd like Gove and Cameron and Johnson to realise that there is a solution that satisfies 70% of the population out there.0 -
Malvern Hills votes Leave0
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Cable and Davies both basically calling it for LEAVE0
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The Lib Dems had pretty much the best campaign by keeping their heads down and saying nothing. With one or two notable exceptions, almost everyone who was involved in the campaign now looks less good than they did before the campaign started.HurstLlama said:
Yes, and that sound I just heard was a squadron of Gloucester Old Spots flying past my window.rcs1000 said:Can I be the first to say: "the LibDems will be the principle long-term beneficiaries of Brexit"
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Sky said it was neck and neck, perhaps edged by Remain.CornishBlue said:
If Birmingham is less than 55% for remain I think we can *almost* call a Leave victory.SouthamObserver said:
Brum will be very good for Leave. Close to parity.surbiton said:London can only even out for Remain. It is Birmingham that might swing it one way or the other.
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Maggie Maggie MaggiePlatoSaid said:Richmondshire Out
Castle Point Out
Maidstone Out0 -
I would settle for a coin toss right now. But I don't see one on offer?NickPalmer said:After my lousy predictions last year, my predictions are coming in pretty accurately this evening - turnout around 70%, Betfair now putting Leave in England clearly in front, Islington 3-1 for Remain. I think it's very much a tossup and I can't see why Betfair still makes Remain a strong fabourite for the UK.
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Cameron nobody should forget is the very reason we are having this vote ...hunchman said:David Davis very humble right now. I personally really like him. I think he would have been much better for the country longer term than Cameron.
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If it is less than 59% I'd be confident....CornishBlue said:
If Birmingham is less than 55% for remain I think we can *almost* call a Leave victory.SouthamObserver said:
Brum will be very good for Leave. Close to parity.surbiton said:London can only even out for Remain. It is Birmingham that might swing it one way or the other.
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E Antrim votes Leave0
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How is a narrow Leave victory satisfactory? Several years of faffing and turmoil lie ahead, at any point during which the country might change its mind and want back in again.Philip_Thompson said:Back when I was still a Remain voter predicting 66% to Remain I said my worst-case scenario was a narrow Remain win. Better a Leave victory by 1 vote or a Remain landslide.
Remain landslide clearly out of the question. I'll be quite upset now I think if Remain wins this, we'll be like Scotland in a Neverendum.
All because of the incompetence of Messrs Cameron and Corbyn. And a rainstorm in Ealing. Joy.0 -
Westminster Remain 69% Leave 31%0
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Leave 2% above par in Westminster0
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Exactly. People forget that the English live in the shires (which includes some pretty large cities and towns relative to Scottish/NI/Welsh settlements).david_herdson said:
Population of Gtr London: 8.5msurbiton said:London can only even out for Remain. It is Birmingham that might swing it one way or the other.
Population of Met Counties: 11.6m
Population of the rest of England: c.35m
Also that 8.5m figure for London includes many many non-voters, because so many are, quite simply, foreign!0 -
City of Westminster: Remain 69%.0
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Maidstone and Richmondshire both vote Leave.0
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Westminster is 2% below par.0
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I really think you're missing what this result is about. It is a vote against globalisation and mass immigration. Our precise relationship with the EU is essentially irrelevant to the factors driving the vote. Those issue importance polls which have always placed the EU well down the list are correct.rcs1000 said:Irrespective of who won - assuming it's 51:49 either way - we need to take a big, deep breath. The country is deeply split.
We don't want the current EU. We don't want glorious isolation.
Irrespective of what Juncker says, we need to find a place that is outside the political structure of the EU, that does not lead to hundreds of thousands of non-citizens claiming benefits, but which keeps us on good terms with our neighbours.
I'd like Gove and Cameron and Johnson to realise that there is a solution that satisfies 70% of the population out there.
People are not voting on the niceties of constitutional issues.0 -
Eastbourne Leave 57 Remain 430
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Tandridge in Surrey for Leave, and par.0
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Westminster came in, slightly better for Leave on Andy's Spreadsheet.0
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Big Westminster boost for Remain...0
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Remain consistently performing above par in London.0
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We are definitely seeing this again....London exceeding expectations, like Labour in GE....The question is does In get the dock side hooker treatment in the Midlands ala Labour in GE.0
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Another big win in Westminster for Remain. This is so close.0
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Runneymede Leave 54%0
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Remain should be leading by about 5% at this stage according to this great webpage> http://www.cityam.com/243872/eu-referendum-most-important-results-watch0
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Runnymede GOES LEAVE - wow!0
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Give over, everything he has done over the last decade has proved the opposite! And then he goes on to stick the boot in proving just how unfit he was to lead the Conservative party.hunchman said:David Davis very humble right now. I personally really like him. I think he would have been much better for the country longer term than Cameron.
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They have promised control of our borders and substantial reductions in immigration. That rules out EEA/EFTA.rcs1000 said:Irrespective of who won - assuming it's 51:49 either way - we need to take a big, deep breath. The country is deeply split.
We don't want the current EU. We don't want glorious isolation.
Irrespective of what Juncker says, we need to find a place that is outside the political structure of the EU, that does not lead to hundreds of thousands of non-citizens claiming benefits, but which keeps us on good terms with our neighbours.
I'd like Gove and Cameron and Johnson to realise that there is a solution that satisfies 70% of the population out there.
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The issue for Leave is that the commuter belt - like St Albans - is also trending better to Remain than we'd like.CornishBlue said:
Exactly. People forget that the English live in the shires (which includes some pretty large cities and towns relative to Scottish/NI/Welsh settlements).david_herdson said:
Population of Gtr London: 8.5msurbiton said:London can only even out for Remain. It is Birmingham that might swing it one way or the other.
Population of Met Counties: 11.6m
Population of the rest of England: c.35m
Also that 8.5m figure for London includes many many non-voters, because so many are, quite simply, foreign!
Where's Pong with his 55-60% Leave forecast now?0 -
Remain crushed in Oldham...??0
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Hanretty 3am update:
Predicted probability of Britain Remaining: 0
https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/eu-referendum-rolling-forecasts-1a625014af55#.ye5zxykcb0 -
Markets are shading downwards again and Betfair is nudging back towards evens, so I think the penny is starting to drop0
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Well... I don't agree with her later conversion on the EU, but we need a leader of her calibre now, and there doesn't seem to be one available.CornishBlue said:
Maggie Maggie MaggiePlatoSaid said:Richmondshire Out
Castle Point Out
Maidstone Out0 -
Hertsmere votes Leave by 50.8% to 49.2%.0
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Runnymede out - Magna Carta leaves!
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Is that a surprise? Magna Carta > Treaty of Rome.KentRising said:Runnymede GOES LEAVE - wow!
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If the result were to be 50/50.0
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Getting close to LEAVE re-establishing the national lead on declared votes0
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It's going to come as a shock to a lot of people in London that there are so many people living elsewhere. They're about to be outvoted by the shires.0
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Runnymead out
Bridgend out
Eastbourne out0 -
And don't forget East Anglia - going to be massive for Leave.CornishBlue said:0 -
London stands alone. It really does. This is over.John_N4 said:Remain consistently performing above par in London.
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E Londonderry Remin 52% Leave 48%0
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Bill Cash looks happy.0
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Cross over #55 incoming0
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Why is Remain still evens with Betfair?Tissue_Price said:Hanretty 3am update:
Predicted probability of Britain Remaining: 0
https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/eu-referendum-rolling-forecasts-1a625014af55#.ye5zxykcb0 -
Telford and Wrekin votes Leave0
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Leave 3% above par in Merton0
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Merton, at 67% for Remain, par.0
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Sky expected turnout 72.4% - highest since 19970
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Huge LEAVE victory in the Salopian Borough of Telford.0
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I hate "the bastards" making the Tories unelectable and the nation ungovernable in the 90s, plus there are simply more important issues than Europe. Whatever the result is, it needs to end this question for the foreseeable future.Dadge said:
How is a narrow Leave victory satisfactory? Several years of faffing and turmoil lie ahead, at any point during which the country might change its mind and want back in again.Philip_Thompson said:Back when I was still a Remain voter predicting 66% to Remain I said my worst-case scenario was a narrow Remain win. Better a Leave victory by 1 vote or a Remain landslide.
Remain landslide clearly out of the question. I'll be quite upset now I think if Remain wins this, we'll be like Scotland in a Neverendum.
All because of the incompetence of Messrs Cameron and Corbyn. And a rainstorm in Ealing. Joy.
A leave vote is final, there is no coming back from that. A remain landslide ditto. This referendum needs to be over TONIGHT so we can all move on, a narrow remain victory doesn't do that. The power of HMG has been lined up behind Remain which will cause a justifiable view that if that hadn't happened then Leave could have won so there will be never ending pressure to have a re-run of the vote this time with HMG either neutral or backing Leave.
I want this over. Leave is over, a narrow Remain vote is not.0 -
Mr Cameron, little england and wales are giving your guys a hell of a beating tonight....0
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Don't forget, all those outside of London live in a bubble....AndyJS said:It's going to come as a shock to a lot of people in London that there are so many people living elsewhere. They're about to be outvoted by the shires.
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Aberdeen in line with the Scottish vote0
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LOL. Betfair had it at over 90% this morning...Tissue_Price said:Hanretty 3am update:
Predicted probability of Britain Remaining: 0
https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/eu-referendum-rolling-forecasts-1a625014af55#.ye5zxykcb
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Leave gets 39% in Aberdeen.0
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Oadby and Wigston Leave, S Somerset Leave0
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St Albans is virtually a London suburb now, so many people have moved here from London over the last few years. Not sure it's representative of the rest of the SE shires,rcs1000 said:
The issue for Leave is that the commuter belt - like St Albans - is also trending better to Remain than we'd like.CornishBlue said:
Exactly. People forget that the English live in the shires (which includes some pretty large cities and towns relative to Scottish/NI/Welsh settlements).david_herdson said:
Population of Gtr London: 8.5msurbiton said:London can only even out for Remain. It is Birmingham that might swing it one way or the other.
Population of Met Counties: 11.6m
Population of the rest of England: c.35m
Also that 8.5m figure for London includes many many non-voters, because so many are, quite simply, foreign!
Where's Pong with his 55-60% Leave forecast now?0 -
They still have it 50-50.RodCrosby said:
LOL. Betfair had it at over 90% this morning...Tissue_Price said:Hanretty 3am update:
Predicted probability of Britain Remaining: 0
https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/eu-referendum-rolling-forecasts-1a625014af55#.ye5zxykcb0 -
Aberdeen Remain 61% Leave 39%0
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GarethoftheVale2 said:
Leave 3% above par in Merton
Which is it?KentRising said:Merton, at 67% for Remain, par.
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I can't sleep. I am going to be a zombie at work at 9am.
Try again at 4am0 -
Considering the EU Ref results overall in Scotland, extremely embarrassing result for Angus Robertson MP in Moray as Leader of the SNP at Westminster. Whatever the result, I hope that that his opponents in Westminster took note of the how close the vote was...0
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No Brexit people ever seem to want to trigger article 50. Yet they have spent months arguing for exactly that.0
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25,000 votes in it, out of nearly 9 million declared.0
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Any estimate when we might have a good idea?0
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GBPUSD back below 1.43 weeeeeeeee!!!!!!!!0
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I'd like to see that Leave lead above 150k0
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This is absolutely true.AndyJS said:It's going to come as a shock to a lot of people in London that there are so many people living elsewhere. They're about to be outvoted by the shires.
What is also true, though, is that London puts into the UK economy much more than it takes out.
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Forest of Dean (next door to me) 59 leave, 41 remain.0
