politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The results so far have developed not necessarily to Remain
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CROSSOVER!
Remain FAVOURITE again!0 -
UNCROSSOVER0
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Did I see Exeter coming in for remain? Is that not a surprise?0
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recross
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London is going to win it for Remain: built up massive leads there.0
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Crossover0
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Glasgow Remain 67% Leave 33%0
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This is just remarkable for so many reasons.
https://twitter.com/lindsaylohan/status/7461511644508651520 -
'Oh look - Remain are winning again....'-itisTissue_Price said:Re-crossover. God knows why
I'm amazed after the places which have declared how close it is.0 -
How long until reverse double crossover?0
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That doesn't work for national cohesion, whichever way the result goes. A stronger separation of identity for London may develop, with political consequences down the line.rottenborough said:Rob Ford saying London has some "heavy lifting" to do to save the day.
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Falkirk:
Remain 44,987
Leave 34,2710 -
Lambeth and Exeter both better for Remain than expected0
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That would be the government's pollster...FrancisUrquhart said:The polling company who had a 10% Remain win....well I think they are probably hot footing to the nearest airport as we speak.
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Yes, that's exactly right Richard.Richard_Nabavi said:
Agreed, but I think we'll get a political vacuum for quite a while. Not only will it be a vacuum in terms of personalities, even more seriously there will be a vacuum in terms of policy, because no homework was done and the Leave campaign jumped on any passing populist bandwagon. The only 100% clear thing about the outcome is that it's a vote against free movement of people. So that rules out the EEA option.SouthamObserver said:I'm afraid they have to. Cameron, Osborne and co are finished and need to go asap.
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Crossbackover0
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Falkirk Remain 57% Leave 43%0
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I don't accept that. The referendum is on leaving the EU. All future options are there to be fought for.Thrak said:
Yes, EEA and acces to the single market are dead. The emergency measures taken need to be based on that.Richard_Nabavi said:
Agreed, but I think we'll get a political vacuum for quite a while. Not only will it be a vacuum in terms of personalities, even more seriously there will be a vacuum in terms of policy, because no homework was done and the Leave campaign jumped on any passing populist bandwagon. The only 100% clear thing about the outcome is that it's a vote against free movement of people. So that rules out the EEA option.SouthamObserver said:I'm afraid they have to. Cameron, Osborne and co are finished and need to go asap.
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???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? Are you sure ?KentRising said:London is going to win it for Remain: built up massive leads there.
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After all this, it's going to be Remain 50.1% isn't it?
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There are more votes in the Midlands, south west, south east, East Anglia than London.KentRising said:London is going to win it for Remain: built up massive leads there.
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Might be some buying opportunities amidst the general sell-off. High risk, though.rcs1000 said:
More interesting will be FTSE 250, as FTSE 100 is full of companies with international earnings that do better in the case of Brexit. We own Wolsely, for example, which is a big US Dollar earner.Scott_P said:@graemewearden: Futures market predicting a massive selloff -- FTSE 100 being called down 6% https://t.co/QhtxxuhyCk
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As for the betting markets and the stockmarkets they were linked with little input from the outside. If the pound went up the Remain odds went up and vise versa, I think someone in the city used some software to link the two markets.
Now I'm off again.0 -
What do MPs know?TheScreamingEagles said:
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Falkirk slightly better for LEAVE0
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Fuck
Sorry not to not be more eloquent, but that sums up everything0 -
The problem with this whole debate has been that it has been about 51%, not 70%. There is a solution that would garner the support of 70% of the British people, and result in minimal economic impact from leaving:
EFTA/EEA, with compulsory health insurance for migrants. Just a small sum of - say - 2k/year would eliminate almost all non-skilled migration.0 -
Just wait until the BULK (and it is a bulk) of the English shires declare in a couple of hours time.0
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Lots of ABs and students in Exeter so was expected.DavidL said:Did I see Exeter coming in for remain? Is that not a surprise?
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Cross back back....get in0
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I'm just making sure Mr Meeks doesn't have the monopoly on pomposity.taffys said:
Now come on sir. Look at that comment, and think how patronising it might sound. You do not have a monopoly on geopolitical analysis.
Seriously though, this is depressing, and it is an experiment...0 -
Glasgow caused the crossover back0
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Nothing. We won't end up at parity.RobD said:0 -
Wandsworth very good for remain0
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?Newport for Leave - did I see that right?0
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Wandsworth Remain 75% Leave 25%0
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Wandsworth Remain's best result...0
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Wandsworth 75% Remain, par was 73% on my figures, though not others.0
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My Laptop has died, can someone please give the link to the par spreadsheet again? TIA.0
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Does anyone have the faintest clue what Jeremy Vine's noise graph represents?0
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That would be a real tribute to the blessed Margaret.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
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Stevenage and Tamworth vote Out0
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Quite. The opinions of Remain voters can't be ignored just because they lost. A significant restriction on free movement is still a minority in the country, regardless of the motivations of WWC votersWanderer said:
I don't accept that. The referendum is on leaving the EU. All future options are there to be fought for.Thrak said:
Yes, EEA and acces to the single market are dead. The emergency measures taken need to be based on that.Richard_Nabavi said:
Agreed, but I think we'll get a political vacuum for quite a while. Not only will it be a vacuum in terms of personalities, even more seriously there will be a vacuum in terms of policy, because no homework was done and the Leave campaign jumped on any passing populist bandwagon. The only 100% clear thing about the outcome is that it's a vote against free movement of people. So that rules out the EEA option.SouthamObserver said:I'm afraid they have to. Cameron, Osborne and co are finished and need to go asap.
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Oddly Betfair has just crossed back again0
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Its going to be like like year....London better than expected, rest of the country a surprise...but how will that pan out.0
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Burnley 66% Leave.0
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Glasgow was big - not sure whether big Enough - and Lambeth looked very good.Mortimer said:
'Oh look - Remain are winning again....'-itisTissue_Price said:Re-crossover. God knows why
I'm amazed after the places which have declared how close it is.
Of course it could be a drowning man clutching at any straw.0 -
Big win for leave in Stevenage. Sign for the East of England..0
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Get in touch with Boris immediately.rcs1000 said:The problem with this whole debate has been that it has been about 51%, not 70%. There is a solution that would garner the support of 70% of the British people, and result in minimal economic impact from leaving:
EFTA/EEA, with compulsory health insurance for migrants. Just a small sum of - say - 2k/year would eliminate almost all non-skilled migration.
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God, it seems an eternity since that 1990s Ashes joke.0
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Wandworth MASSIVE for remain0
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Tamworth often a bell weather town in GEs.HYUFD said:Stevenage and Tamworth vote Out
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I tell you I'm glad I'm all cashed out on this....I couldn't cope0
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I'm hopeful - but we've heard from the more marginal/poorer southern areas so far.CornishBlue said:Just wait until the BULK (and it is a bulk) of the English shires declare in a couple of hours time.
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Does anyone remember my forecast the other day?
I said Sunderland 62%... and then that Remain would come back strongly in London. At 6am, there'd be six LAs still to declare and all to play for 0 -
I'm going to move to Wandsworth0
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Wandsworth 75% Remain.
Bloody hell.0 -
Stonking turnouts for Leave required in midlands please0
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Bracknell Leave 54% Remain 46%0
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Remember the IMF and IFS reports. Consider the last twenty years. Are there any developed countries that are poorer now than then?williamglenn said:
I'm just making sure Mr Meeks doesn't have the monopoly on pomposity.taffys said:Britain has chosen to be the lab rat in a giant experiment, breaking with the course of Western history since WW2, and the people leading the charge seemingly have no idea of what is at stake.
Now come on sir. Look at that comment, and think how patronising it might sound. You do not have a monopoly on geopolitical analysis.
Seriously though, this is depressing, and it is an experiment...
I'm going to repeat 'nobody knows for sure' until I'm blue in the face. But we've had a wide range of models used to forecast Brexit; none lead to calamity.0 -
Right: I'm calling it as an exact tie and going back to bed. See you all in a couple of hours.0
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Surely London not big enough?
Although huge Remain wins.0 -
Sterling up to 1.44 - got some big remain areas out of the way though.0
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Tamworth and Burnley AWFUL for Remain.0
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Chris Hanretty:Philip_Thompson said:My Laptop has died, can someone please give the link to the par spreadsheet again? TIA.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1tRE59IkgeRREISpM75I8gR0MdkGe1diParW0hVO109Y/htmlview?sle=true#gid=881507152
Mine:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hCtN3IY76azcr_6OiFPvZI0eXi_8JJqxT7d8vNhW2Do/edit#gid=00 -
If that's the Lambeth result I reckon Camden could be the top Remain area in the UK.0
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London going to rescue this for remain......0
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Torbay and Caerphilly vote Leave0
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You just aren't listening to the voters, they will turn on you as an elite not clamping down on all migration. If you don't deliver this then there will be trouble.rcs1000 said:The problem with this whole debate has been that it has been about 51%, not 70%. There is a solution that would garner the support of 70% of the British people, and result in minimal economic impact from leaving:
EFTA/EEA, with compulsory health insurance for migrants. Just a small sum of - say - 2k/year would eliminate almost all non-skilled migration.
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Trouble with BBC's over fussy graphic is that they have spent a lot of effort putting the areas in the order they think they will be, but seem unable to put the actual result in context in terms of where it actually is on their scale0
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Tooting !!!!!!!!!!!KentRising said:Wandsworth 75% Remain.
Bloody hell.0 -
Inner London will be big for Remain... but the Outer boroughs... we will see...MikeL said:Surely London not big enough?
Although huge Remain wins.0 -
Might need a massive gin in a bit.0
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Wrexham 59% Leave0
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Wandsworth slightly better for remain.0
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Wrexham and Caerphilly vote Leave0
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They all assume that politics carries on pretty much as normal. I don't think that's possible.John_M said:
Remember the IMF and IFS reports. Consider the last twenty years. Are there any developed countries that are poorer now than then?williamglenn said:
I'm just making sure Mr Meeks doesn't have the monopoly on pomposity.taffys said:Britain has chosen to be the lab rat in a giant experiment, breaking with the course of Western history since WW2, and the people leading the charge seemingly have no idea of what is at stake.
Now come on sir. Look at that comment, and think how patronising it might sound. You do not have a monopoly on geopolitical analysis.
Seriously though, this is depressing, and it is an experiment...
I'm going to repeat 'nobody knows for sure' until I'm blew in the face. But we've had a wide range of models used to forecast Brexit; none lead to calamity.0 -
I think it depends on places like Southampton, Milton Keynes, Bedford, Reading, etc.0
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I can only imagine Betfair thinks London is half of England0
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Lets all move to Gibraltar? Worst case it ends up in Spain...TheScreamingEagles said:I'm going to move to Wandsworth
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Was that 67% Leave in Burnley ?
Andy had it at 55% Leave.
Big Muslim population there as well.
Wonder if Oldham, Rochdale, Bradford etc will follow that pattern ?
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Barking votes Leave 62% Remain 38%0
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10 areas in Wales declared all 10 leave0
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Wales do realise it isn't a vote to leave the UK right?KentRising said:Wrexham 59% Leave
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Return to the groat!Jonathan said:0 -
Surely the betfair market should be quite accurate by now? We must have enough results for the statistical models to start making reasonably accurate projections? Which means it's still going to be very close?0
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62% for leave in Barking. Excellent result.0
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I am a Leaver, and have been passionate about my views. They are shared by perhaps a third of the Leave side, and include Richard_T, Max, Casino, Cyclefree and others.Thrak said:
You just aren't listening to the voters, they will turn on you as an elite not clamping down on all migration. If you don't deliver this then there will be trouble.rcs1000 said:The problem with this whole debate has been that it has been about 51%, not 70%. There is a solution that would garner the support of 70% of the British people, and result in minimal economic impact from leaving:
EFTA/EEA, with compulsory health insurance for migrants. Just a small sum of - say - 2k/year would eliminate almost all non-skilled migration.
We need to come up with the solution that satisfies 70% of the population, not 51% of 51%.0 -
Wow that's a good result for Leave in Barking & Dagenham0
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Do you think the pollsters bothered to telephone anyone outside London?0
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Knowsley Leave0
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Knowsley 52% Remain 48% Leave0
