politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why the betting has often seemed so out of line with the po
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Pretty much correct , goes back to 2004 and a trial postal votes only experiment for local elections .FrancisUrquhart said:
Weren't they the first people in a trial to be offered postal votes as a right rather than a special circumstance & there was a bug drive on it. And once you have applied you get opportunity from then on.FrankBooth said:Why do so many people in Newcastle vote by post? Highly urban and youngish I'd have thought.
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You can still get 6.2/1 on betfair. How silly do you need it to be?RochdalePioneers said:Have now been to most polling stations here in Thornaby-on-Tees. All report higher than GE turnout, the ones in the older/poorer parts of town report massive turnout. One was north of 3x last may expecting 4x by the end of the night. All reporting new voters young and old.
Regardless of the result a festival of democracy. But if we see this kind of support in these kinds of communities in these kind of towns on this kind of scale, I am going to regret not having stuck money on Leave at today's silly odds.0 -
Crickey that would be organised of them...but then students aren't what they used to be.rcs1000 said:
We were talking about postals in Newcastle - I'm thinking the high number might be bacause students got them before buggering offFrancisUrquhart said:
uni finished last week there...I would have imagined the little darlings will have buggered off home by now.rcs1000 said:
It's a very studenty town at the end of term... so hard to make definitive conclusion. We'll find out by about 12:30am mindDanSmith said:
32% postal vote is very good for Leave.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Great for democracy, I'd love to see a turnout as high as Indyref. Might be strong for Leave?pinkrose said:
Or maybe not,
Who knows?0 -
Play around with causality and lawyers become cheap. Let's play around more!weejonnie said:
"Technically, the microscopic causality postulate of axiomatic quantum field theory implies the impossibility of superluminal communication using any phenomena whose behavior can be described by orthodox quantum field theory"Sandpit said:
But it's new, "collaborative" and "disruptive" technology. They don't see why they should need to follow the old fashioned laws of Physics and will throw expensive lawyers at Physics if it tries to argue otherwise!RobD said:
Ahem. I though that wasn't allowed.rcs1000 said:
There's a guy on Kickstarter selling some networking equipment that sends information faster than the speed of light!JosiasJessop said:
It's much more that just one signal box:malcolmg said:
now you are splitting hairs, we have one new signal boxPaul_Bedfordshire said:
If london is so gilded how come they are still struggling with early twentieth century d.c. third rail electrification systems and signalling that pre dates world war 2 while you have nice new signalling and overhead 25kV electrification in Glasgow?malcolmg said:
Bet it is a light shower or two, we get real rain up here not your 3 mm stuff.Jonathan said:
It's not just a bit of rain. It's the collapse of majority of the South East commuter network. Suspect you would have felt differently 18 Sep 2014 if this had impacted Glasgow.malcolmg said:
Should NOT, just because of a bit of rain, give us a break.
PS: I have been taxed a fortune to gild London and its wasted by a few showers , what cretins planned that
http://www.egip.info/
As an aside, ISTR BR worked out in the 1980s that the entire rail network could be controlled from just four massive signal boxes. They chose not to start down that route for various reasons. I've always wondered why it couldn't just be one: the speed of light is too slow, perhaps?
Wikipedia - and if you understand that then you're a better man than I am.0 -
Well, I won't be voting. Marylebone Station carnage. Trains to Leamington all delayed. Very annoying.0
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You think Remain have it?blackburn63 said:OK I need some some help, can anybody convince me that 15% return on my money for a few hours is not worth the risk?
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Thats only the second that ive seennunu said:
hmmm a lot of people reporting on here Leavers bottling it.shropshirelad said:Just back from voting and both my mother and brother, once staunch leavers, changed their minds and voted to remain. When I asked why they both said they didn't like the tone or direction that the leavers camp where taking. Could this prove to be a common problem for leave?
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'Spooky action at a distance' does seem to work, but is information being transferred?BenedictWhite said:
Impressive. Does he do snake oil as well? It'd be good if he did.rcs1000 said:
There's a guy on Kickstarter selling some networking equipment that sends information faster than the speed of light!JosiasJessop said:
It's much more that just one signal box:malcolmg said:
now you are splitting hairs, we have one new signal boxPaul_Bedfordshire said:
If london is so gilded how come they are still struggling with early twentieth century d.c. third rail electrification systems and signalling that pre dates world war 2 while you have nice new signalling and overhead 25kV electrification in Glasgow?malcolmg said:
Bet it is a light shower or two, we get real rain up here not your 3 mm stuff.Jonathan said:
It's not just a bit of rain. It's the collapse of majority of the South East commuter network. Suspect you would have felt differently 18 Sep 2014 if this had impacted Glasgow.malcolmg said:
Should NOT, just because of a bit of rain, give us a break.
PS: I have been taxed a fortune to gild London and its wasted by a few showers , what cretins planned that
http://www.egip.info/
As an aside, ISTR BR worked out in the 1980s that the entire rail network could be controlled from just four massive signal boxes. They chose not to start down that route for various reasons. I've always wondered why it couldn't just be one: the speed of light is too slow, perhaps?
http://www.nature.com/news/2008/080813/full/news.2008.1038.html0 -
Occasional lurker from South Cambs here. I think this area is meant to be Remain by about 15%.
We had minor flooding and black skies, but it's cleared up a bit in the last 15 minutes.
Turnout seemed average, maybe a bit low, compared with the last couple of GEs. I can't put a percentage on it (no idea how to calculate that) but there were no queues.0 -
Well done you.Verulamius said:
Just arrived back to St. Albans from Blackfriars. Passed the landslide which was on the up slow just north of Radlett. Trains running on the other three lines.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
That would account for the report about power supply failure between Elstree and St Albans.TudorRose said:
My dad just called me - he says there are reports of a train being hit by lightning (near St Albans?). Presumably there's no danger to life in that case? I assume it's like being in a car.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
If it was pure water it would be fine but its not so it conducts electricity and shorts out the rails together making the signalling system think there is a train there and putting all the signals to red.RobD said:PB Train Doyens will know this. Why can't a train run through water like this? I thought the bottom bit was purely mechanical.
https://twitter.com/greateranglia/status/745854236001439746/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw
South of the thames it also shorts out the 750v d.c. conductor rails which leak tens of thousands of amps all over the water causing all sorts of interesting things (and them to be switched off in short order)
Everyone inside should be safe because a train is basically a faraday cage but they now have a train with all itsw electrics blown and a fused power supply system which means the Midland Main line will now be at a stand which means in practical terms that if OGH has gone to London for the day and planned to vote when he got back he may well be disappointed.
Open Train times is also showing "LAND SLIP BLOK" on the up slow north of St Albans and another landslip south of st albans with everything at a stand either side of st Albans
This is the worst day of disruption for years - certainly outside winter snowstorms.
Did you see the train that was reported here as struck by lightning.
Apparently there is a second landslip north of st albans - also on the down slow0 -
Some but more Scottish Tories will vote Leave than Scottish Labour and LDs, probably more than SNP voters tooDanny565 said:
I wonder possibly if Scottish Tory voters might generally vote Remain, so as to avoid another independence referendum.HYUFD said:
Comfortably, the Borders will be the only area in Scotland which might vote LeaveAlistair said:
Aberdeen Remain? Are you sure?HYUFD said:
When is the turnout in Glasgow ever high? Even in indyref it had one of the lowest turnouts in Scotland. Outside of the Borders I would guess Glasgow will have one of the highest Brexit votes in Scotland, Edinburgh and Aberdeen will be much more pro Remain, so a low Glasgow turnout is not necessarily terrible news for RemainLowlander said:From my experience in Glasgow, the turnout in Scotland is not going to be high. I voted late afternoon and glancing at the electoral register list, there was barely 1 in 5 of the names crossed out.
Twitter is confusing with a lot of people reporting personal experience of dead polling places while the Leave email about "high Scottish turnout" and a 9am statement from the Chief Returning Officer keep getting re-tweeted. I tend towards the personal experiences getting reported.
I think Remain's hopes for a big boost from Scotland will be quite heavily suppressed due to turnout.0 -
Remain 60-65 band has now gone 3rd favourite - ie ahead of Remain 45-50 band.0
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Erdogan has plenty of friends - just not in the Westernized parts of Istanbul and Antalya. Head outside there and his strong man image is still liked and respected...JosiasJessop said:
It's not that popular in various parts of Turkey. Polls on the matter are varied to say the least.RobD said:
Erdogan is going to rapidly run out of friends ...0 -
Normally its an older demographic that postals. Students are often registered at home. Newcastle Uni is stuffed full of kids from affluent SE England but Northumbria gets a more NE student body. But, we'll see later on! Some suggestion that Newcastle might declare early on?rcs1000 said:
We were talking about postals in Newcastle - I'm thinking the high number might be bacause students got them before buggering offFrancisUrquhart said:
uni finished last week there...I would have imagined the little darlings will have buggered off home by now.rcs1000 said:
It's a very studenty town at the end of term... so hard to make definitive conclusion. We'll find out by about 12:30am mindDanSmith said:
32% postal vote is very good for Leave.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Great for democracy, I'd love to see a turnout as high as Indyref. Might be strong for Leave?pinkrose said:
Or maybe not,
Who knows?0 -
Every time I see one on FB I do point out that I am a Vote Leave observer... But hey ho.williamglenn said:
It's quaint and endearing that people are both bonkers paranoid and completely naive at the same time.BenedictWhite said:
There is a fruit loop idea that using a pen prevents fraud, being going around Leave of FB etc.peter_from_putney said:
Are they saying "Show me yours and I'll show you mine"?Casino_Royale said:Still at the polling station. Quite a few passionate Leavers showing me their pens as they go in.
As a matter of interest why would they show you their pens ..... very strange!0 -
Are Leavers just getting overexcited because 40-odd percent of people voting in a national election feels like a hell of a lot compared to a GE, even though it doesn't mean you're winning?0
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Surely its difficult to put a number on turnout because we dont know the exact number of postalsCosmic said:Occasional lurker from South Cambs here. I think this area is meant to be Remain by about 15%.
We had minor flooding and black skies, but it's cleared up a bit in the last 15 minutes.
Turnout seemed average, maybe a bit low, compared with the last couple of GEs. I can't put a percentage on it (no idea how to calculate that) but there were no queues.0 -
@bookseller
'Politics will be shaken up though, whatever the result. It'll be close - which means a rebirth of either a) a continued 'leave' campaign, or a nascent 'rejoin EU' campaign tomorrow morning. One thing is for sure, Cameron doesn't get it put to bed for a generation. In the words of Alastair Campbell, it's a 'messy score draw'...'
One of the EU issues not mentioned during the campaign and could cause major ructions within Labour is the imminent TTIP agreement which will be NHS privatisation through the back door.
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Shetland and Western Isles according to Wikipedia:timmo said:Anybody any idea what the UBER surcharge has gone up to tonight in central london?
Wasnt it them and the Isle of Wight the only 2 areas to vote no in 75?John_N4 said:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_European_Communities_membership_referendum,_1975
Interestingly, N Yorks was the most pro-EEC English county in 1975. I'd expect it to be a comfortable Leave today.0 -
I said "thanks but no thanks".El_Dave said:
Did she give him back?rcs1000 said:
I am amused, because the one and only time I met Nadine Dorries was at Le Caprice, and it doesn't get much posher than that.Scrapheap_as_was said:
(She was incredibly nice, and offered to look after my two year old son while I took my five year old daughter to the toilet.)
It's not that I didn't appreciate the offer, but in all likelihood, my son would would have burst into tears once I disappeared
But, my opinion of Nadine is that she is an incredibly nice person. I wasn't a constituent. She gained no votes. She just saw a struggling father and tried to help.
Good for you Nadine.
(Woman of the people who eats at Le Caprice!)0 -
Yes, we certainly got it last night all right, like you.not_on_fire said:
Interesting...the weather must be very localised. Here in Chessington just a few miles away we had a torrential downpour last night and another one this afternoon.peter_from_putney said:Here in SW London, we've had very little significant rain over the past 12 hours, just a number of bouts of persistent drizzle, but it's been a thoroughly dull, dank, cold, miserable day.
Unless you were particularly exercised by the prospect of voting in the referendum, I can't imagine anything close to record numbers bothering to travel any sort of distance by foot in order to vote. Fortunately, I arranged a postal vote.0 -
19:47 is only delayed 10 minutes...SouthamObserver said:Well, I won't be voting. Marylebone Station carnage. Trains to Leamington all delayed. Very annoying.
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That's exactly what an election-fixing MI5 agent would claim, isn't it?BenedictWhite said:
Every time I see one on FB I do point out that I am a Vote Leave observer... But hey ho.williamglenn said:
It's quaint and endearing that people are both bonkers paranoid and completely naive at the same time.BenedictWhite said:
There is a fruit loop idea that using a pen prevents fraud, being going around Leave of FB etc.peter_from_putney said:
Are they saying "Show me yours and I'll show you mine"?Casino_Royale said:Still at the polling station. Quite a few passionate Leavers showing me their pens as they go in.
As a matter of interest why would they show you their pens ..... very strange!0 -
Could mean anything. I think a lot of people are probably leveraging their positions given the assumption (and probably private info) that remain are going to win.MikeL said:Remain 60-65 band has now gone 3rd favourite - ie ahead of Remain 45-50 band.
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I see postal votes have transmogrified from PB's bête noire to its white knight.0
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Isle of Wight 1975, 71.2% YES.TudorRose said:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_European_Communities_membership_referendum,_19750 -
Surely labour just blame on the Tories.john_zims said:@bookseller
'Politics will be shaken up though, whatever the result. It'll be close - which means a rebirth of either a) a continued 'leave' campaign, or a nascent 'rejoin EU' campaign tomorrow morning. One thing is for sure, Cameron doesn't get it put to bed for a generation. In the words of Alastair Campbell, it's a 'messy score draw'...'
One of the EU issues not mentioned during the campaign and could cause major ructions within Labour is the imminent TTIP agreement which will be NHS privatisation through the back door.0 -
https://googledataorg.cartodb.com/u/googledata/viz/28edaeda-38cc-11e6-847c-42010a14800c/embed_map
This is interesting. The amount of people searching for expat info should probably worry Leave.0 -
Nope. As I said before there was a all postal vote. The large number of postal votes (in all subsequent elections is due to that.rcs1000 said:
We were talking about postals in Newcastle - I'm thinking the high number might be bacause students got them before buggering offFrancisUrquhart said:
uni finished last week there...I would have imagined the little darlings will have buggered off home by now.rcs1000 said:
It's a very studenty town at the end of term... so hard to make definitive conclusion. We'll find out by about 12:30am mindDanSmith said:
32% postal vote is very good for Leave.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Great for democracy, I'd love to see a turnout as high as Indyref. Might be strong for Leave?pinkrose said:
Or maybe not,
Who knows?0 -
May be a considerationOldKingCole said:
It’s the potential smuggling income after the subsequent Scottish Indyref!HYUFD said:
Comfortably, the Borders will be the only area in Scotland which might vote LeaveAlistair said:
Aberdeen Remain? Are you sure?HYUFD said:
When is the turnout in Glasgow ever high? Even in indyref it had one of the lowest turnouts in Scotland. Outside of the Borders I would guess Glasgow will have one of the highest Brexit votes in Scotland, Edinburgh and Aberdeen will be much more pro Remain, so a low Glasgow turnout is not necessarily terrible news for RemainLowlander said:From my experience in Glasgow, the turnout in Scotland is not going to be high. I voted late afternoon and glancing at the electoral register list, there was barely 1 in 5 of the names crossed out.
Twitter is confusing with a lot of people reporting personal experience of dead polling places while the Leave email about "high Scottish turnout" and a 9am statement from the Chief Returning Officer keep getting re-tweeted. I tend towards the personal experiences getting reported.
I think Remain's hopes for a big boost from Scotland will be quite heavily suppressed due to turnout.0 -
What are you prattling on about.EPG said:I see postal votes have transmogrified from PB's bête noire to its white knight.
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Leavers are overexcited? I think people are more excited to see some old regulars back on the site. Remain are going to stroll home.williamglenn said:Are Leavers just getting overexcited because 40-odd percent of people voting in a national election feels like a hell of a lot compared to a GE, even though it doesn't mean you're winning?
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All I know is you need a Babmbleweeny 57 submeson brain, and an atomic vector plotter.weejonnie said:
"Technically, the microscopic causality postulate of axiomatic quantum field theory implies the impossibility of superluminal communication using any phenomena whose behavior can be described by orthodox quantum field theory"Sandpit said:
But it's new, "collaborative" and "disruptive" technology. They don't see why they should need to follow the old fashioned laws of Physics and will throw expensive lawyers at Physics if it tries to argue otherwise!RobD said:
Ahem. I though that wasn't allowed.rcs1000 said:
There's a guy on Kickstarter selling some networking equipment that sends information faster than the speed of light!JosiasJessop said:
It's much more that just one signal box:malcolmg said:
now you are splitting hairs, we have one new signal boxPaul_Bedfordshire said:
If london is so gilded how come they are still struggling with early twentieth century d.c. third rail electrification systems and signalling that pre dates world war 2 while you have nice new signalling and overhead 25kV electrification in Glasgow?malcolmg said:
Bet it is a light shower or two, we get real rain up here not your 3 mm stuff.Jonathan said:
It's not just a bit of rain. It's the collapse of majority of the South East commuter network. Suspect you would have felt differently 18 Sep 2014 if this had impacted Glasgow.malcolmg said:
Should NOT, just because of a bit of rain, give us a break.
PS: I have been taxed a fortune to gild London and its wasted by a few showers , what cretins planned that
http://www.egip.info/
As an aside, ISTR BR worked out in the 1980s that the entire rail network could be controlled from just four massive signal boxes. They chose not to start down that route for various reasons. I've always wondered why it couldn't just be one: the speed of light is too slow, perhaps?
Wikipedia - and if you understand that then you're a better man than I am.0 -
EPG said:
I see postal votes have transmogrified from PB's bête noire to its white knight.
It's hilarious isn't it ?0 -
Sadly I agree 55/45John_M said:
Leavers are overexcited? I think people are more excited to see some old regulars back on the site. Remain are going to stroll home.williamglenn said:Are Leavers just getting overexcited because 40-odd percent of people voting in a national election feels like a hell of a lot compared to a GE, even though it doesn't mean you're winning?
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At this stage maybe, by the end of voting certainly not, 66% voted at the last general electionwilliamglenn said:Are Leavers just getting overexcited because 40-odd percent of people voting in a national election feels like a hell of a lot compared to a GE, even though it doesn't mean you're winning?
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Suppose 'Leavers' become 'Remainers' - how might you answer?williamglenn said:Are Leavers just getting overexcited because 40-odd percent of people voting in a national election feels like a hell of a lot compared to a GE, even though it doesn't mean you're winning?
Tomorrow we'll all wake up as British citizens. The debate shows us that we can both understand and deal with big issues. We want more of the political classes. That starts tomorrow.0 -
One or two still think they have a chance... Enough to make me get nervous about the result. This morning I was sure Remain would be touching 60%.John_M said:
Leavers are overexcited? I think people are more excited to see some old regulars back on the site. Remain are going to stroll home.williamglenn said:Are Leavers just getting overexcited because 40-odd percent of people voting in a national election feels like a hell of a lot compared to a GE, even though it doesn't mean you're winning?
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@El_Dave - I was about to send you a personal email but just realised you're using a mailinator email. We have a rule that people need to use genuine email addresses (and since we got hit by Putin trolls a few years ago, I've cracked down on Tor too). Please change your email address,
Thanks0 -
RCS ..... do try not to drop your wife's proxy in a deep, dirty puddle on the way to the polling station, thereby rendering it unusable.rcs1000 said:
That reflects the PoV of this site!RealBritain said:There are certainly are an awful lot of anecdotal reports of high leave turnout on this thread, and very few in comparison for the other camp. This seemingly either reflects the point of view of this site, which has a high proportion of more right-leaning contributors, or something of a genuine wider significance.
I suspect when I go down to vote for myself and the wife (with her proxy, and never mind the fact the votes cancel each other out), I will find that my part of Hampstead is super high turnout, and 80-90% Remain.0 -
I believe that many PBers are not fans of the wide use of postal votes, but many of those same people will be Leavers who now need to rely on postal votesFrancisUrquhart said:
What are you prattling on about.EPG said:I see postal votes have transmogrified from PB's bête noire to its white knight.
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Well that's it, I don't know, in 12 hours the price has halved. Perhaps its just one of those occasions when the favourite wins cosily and we wonder what all the fuss was about.RobD said:
You think Remain have it?blackburn63 said:OK I need some some help, can anybody convince me that 15% return on my money for a few hours is not worth the risk?
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I'd like a Brexit result. That's unlikely to say the least. My fallback position is a 51:49 Remain win. I want the politicians nervous, and to give Donald Tusk ammo in his quest to beat some sense into the EC.williamglenn said:
One or two still think they have a chance... Enough to make me get nervous about the result. This morning I was sure Remain would be touching 60%.John_M said:
Leavers are overexcited? I think people are more excited to see some old regulars back on the site. Remain are going to stroll home.williamglenn said:Are Leavers just getting overexcited because 40-odd percent of people voting in a national election feels like a hell of a lot compared to a GE, even though it doesn't mean you're winning?
Ultimately, very few people have any enthusiasm for the EU as currently constituted (I appreciate that's a blind assertion, sue me
). I'd like them to get the message. 0 -
I would think so. From what I could see, 30 - 40% of the names were marked as having voted around 6:30.timmo said:
Surely its difficult to put a number on turnout because we dont know the exact number of postalsCosmic said:Occasional lurker from South Cambs here. I think this area is meant to be Remain by about 15%.
We had minor flooding and black skies, but it's cleared up a bit in the last 15 minutes.
Turnout seemed average, maybe a bit low, compared with the last couple of GEs. I can't put a percentage on it (no idea how to calculate that) but there were no queues.0 -
A few years ago? I thought we still have a few of putins little helpers these days adding comic value.rcs1000 said:@El_Dave - I was about to send you a personal email but just realised you're using a mailinator email. We have a rule that people need to use genuine email addresses (and since we got hit by Putin trolls a few years ago, I've cracked down on Tor too). Please change your email address,
Thanks0 -
The Chinese traditionally viewed the emperor as having a right to rule granted by heaven - the Mandate of Heaven. Major weather events and earthquakes at important times were feared as omens of heaven withdrawing its mandate. Maybe the gods are angry with London today!0
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Yes and it seems to be their first or second post hmmm.nunu said:
hmmm a lot of people reporting on here Leavers bottling it.shropshirelad said:Just back from voting and both my mother and brother, once staunch leavers, changed their minds and voted to remain. When I asked why they both said they didn't like the tone or direction that the leavers camp where taking. Could this prove to be a common problem for leave?
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It seems to be the day for long term lurkers/absentees to come back (has Admiral Sir Sigmund WikiDair come back since I went out?) so I'll throw in my 2p worth.
Just voted in Argyll. I'd say less than half the list was crossed off and traffic was slow into the Polling Station.
I think Cyclefree got it right in her thread header a few days ago just before she went away. It has been a difficult decision, I have kids who could get a lot out of the EU, but if we were Spanish or Greek or Portuguese I might wonder about that.
I voted Leave, fundamentally because I see the EU as a malevolent influence across a whole range of issues affecting the lives of ordinary people throughout Europe and I hope we can quicken its demise and see a new, trade and growth oriented structure rise in its place that will encourage the spread of wealth more evenly throughout Europe and not simply subsidise economic sloth and inactivity, while creaming off a healthy chunk for the bureaucrats.
Given the quality of the campaign was so piss poor I don't expect Leave to win, and I expect to feel consequences if it does, but at the very least we've been given a vote, so it was in our own hands. I will live with the decision come what may.
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Well we know Dave has been a long time lurker...Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Yes and it seems to be their first or second post hmmm.nunu said:
hmmm a lot of people reporting on here Leavers bottling it.shropshirelad said:Just back from voting and both my mother and brother, once staunch leavers, changed their minds and voted to remain. When I asked why they both said they didn't like the tone or direction that the leavers camp where taking. Could this prove to be a common problem for leave?
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Waterloo was a giant sardine tin at 5:30 - was utterly packed from end to end. Must have been 25,000 people stuck. Deep joy.0
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... and the east of England.Patrick said:The Chinese traditionally viewed the emperor as having a right to rule granted by heaven - the Mandate of Heaven. Major weather events and earthquakes at important times were feared as omens of heaven withdrawing its mandate. Maybe the gods are angry with London today!
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Sorry up slowPaul_Bedfordshire said:
Well done you.Verulamius said:
Just arrived back to St. Albans from Blackfriars. Passed the landslide which was on the up slow just north of Radlett. Trains running on the other three lines.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
That would account for the report about power supply failure between Elstree and St Albans.TudorRose said:
My dad just called me - he says there are reports of a train being hit by lightning (near St Albans?). Presumably there's no danger to life in that case? I assume it's like being in a car.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
If it was pure water it would be fine but its not so it conducts electricity and shorts out the rails together making the signalling system think there is a train there and putting all the signals to red.RobD said:PB Train Doyens will know this. Why can't a train run through water like this? I thought the bottom bit was purely mechanical.
https://twitter.com/greateranglia/status/745854236001439746/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw
South of the thames it also shorts out the 750v d.c. conductor rails which leak tens of thousands of amps all over the water causing all sorts of interesting things (and them to be switched off in short order)
Everyone inside should be safe because a train is basically a faraday cage but they now have a train with all itsw electrics blown and a fused power supply system which means the Midland Main line will now be at a stand which means in practical terms that if OGH has gone to London for the day and planned to vote when he got back he may well be disappointed.
Open Train times is also showing "LAND SLIP BLOK" on the up slow north of St Albans and another landslip south of st albans with everything at a stand either side of st Albans
This is the worst day of disruption for years - certainly outside winter snowstorms.
Did you see the train that was reported here as struck by lightning.
Apparently there is a second landslip north of st albans - also on the down slow0 -
I work at GCHQ... Not MI5....Wanderer said:
That's exactly what an election-fixing MI5 agent would claim, isn't it?BenedictWhite said:
Every time I see one on FB I do point out that I am a Vote Leave observer... But hey ho.williamglenn said:
It's quaint and endearing that people are both bonkers paranoid and completely naive at the same time.BenedictWhite said:
There is a fruit loop idea that using a pen prevents fraud, being going around Leave of FB etc.peter_from_putney said:
Are they saying "Show me yours and I'll show you mine"?Casino_Royale said:Still at the polling station. Quite a few passionate Leavers showing me their pens as they go in.
As a matter of interest why would they show you their pens ..... very strange!
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Only going to get worse as we add 500k people a year to the ranks...Patrick said:Waterloo was a giant sardine tin at 5:30 - was utterly packed from end to end. Must have been 25,000 people stuck. Deep joy.
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Fox jr said that his Facebook feed has been full of posts on voting and registration by his fellow students. Not a single one going for Leave. Selection bias maybe, but they do seem very enthused. The kids are alright.FrancisUrquhart said:
Crickey that would be organised of them...but then students aren't what they used to be.rcs1000 said:
We were talking about postals in Newcastle - I'm thinking the high number might be bacause students got them before buggering offFrancisUrquhart said:
uni finished last week there...I would have imagined the little darlings will have buggered off home by now.rcs1000 said:
It's a very studenty town at the end of term... so hard to make definitive conclusion. We'll find out by about 12:30am mindDanSmith said:
32% postal vote is very good for Leave.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Great for democracy, I'd love to see a turnout as high as Indyref. Might be strong for Leave?pinkrose said:
Or maybe not,
Who knows?0 -
These reports of half the list crossed off are a bit spurious. I was one of the first to vote this morning and a lot of the list was crossed off because they are the people who have been sent postal votes. This doesnt mean they have been returned just sent and this ensure that nobody can vote twice.0
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Great post. I was a reluctant Remainer, but share your concerns about the state of the EU. We shall survive, no matter what.Kinga said:It seems to be the day for long term lurkers/absentees to come back (has Admiral Sir Sigmund WikiDair come back since I went out?) so I'll throw in my 2p worth.
Just voted in Argyll. I'd say less than half the list was crossed off and traffic was slow into the Polling Station.
I think Cyclefree got it right in her thread header a few days ago just before she went away. It has been a difficult decision, I have kids who could get a lot out of the EU, but if we were Spanish or Greek or Portuguese I might wonder about that.
I voted Leave, fundamentally because I see the EU as a malevolent influence across a whole range of issues affecting the lives of ordinary people throughout Europe and I hope we can quicken its demise and see a new, trade and growth oriented structure rise in its place that will encourage the spread of wealth more evenly throughout Europe and not simply subsidise economic sloth and inactivity, while creaming off a healthy chunk for the bureaucrats.
Given the quality of the campaign was so piss poor I don't expect Leave to win, and I expect to feel consequences if it does, but at the very least we've been given a vote, so it was in our own hands. I will live with the decision come what may.0 -
Postal votes weeks in advance during exams / end of year parties though?foxinsoxuk said:
Fox jr said that his Facebook feed has been full of posts on voting and registration by his fellow students. Not a single one going for Leave. Selection bias maybe, but they do seem very enthused. The kids are alright.FrancisUrquhart said:
Crickey that would be organised of them...but then students aren't what they used to be.rcs1000 said:
We were talking about postals in Newcastle - I'm thinking the high number might be bacause students got them before buggering offFrancisUrquhart said:
uni finished last week there...I would have imagined the little darlings will have buggered off home by now.rcs1000 said:
It's a very studenty town at the end of term... so hard to make definitive conclusion. We'll find out by about 12:30am mindDanSmith said:
32% postal vote is very good for Leave.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Great for democracy, I'd love to see a turnout as high as Indyref. Might be strong for Leave?pinkrose said:
Or maybe not,
Who knows?0 -
I'm very pleased with the reports both of traditional non-voters turning out, and of a high turn-out in general. Whatever the outcome is, that has to be a good thing. No guess as to what it means for the result.williamglenn said:Are Leavers just getting overexcited because 40-odd percent of people voting in a national election feels like a hell of a lot compared to a GE, even though it doesn't mean you're winning?
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At least not using the same identitytimmo said:These reports of half the list crossed off are a bit spurious. I was one of the first to vote this morning and a lot of the list was crossed off because they are the people who have been sent postal votes. This doesnt mean they have been returned just sent and this ensure that nobody can vote twice.
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Anecdote...
Just got a call for my 20 year old son from britain stronger in. Told them I was on the Telephone Preference Service opt-out. They told me political calls didn't count. I told them it did. Looking up it appears they are in breach of data protection - and probably desperate...
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As an aside: curiously, one of the factors influencing chip design is the speed of light.RobD said:
Surely not the speed of light? I can ping my computer in San Francisco in ~150ms (which I think is the round trip time?)JosiasJessop said:
It's much more that just one signal box:malcolmg said:
now you are splitting hairs, we have one new signal boxPaul_Bedfordshire said:
If london is so gilded how come they are still struggling with early twentieth century d.c. third rail electrification systems and signalling that pre dates world war 2 while you have nice new signalling and overhead 25kV electrification in Glasgow?malcolmg said:
Bet it is a light shower or two, we get real rain up here not your 3 mm stuff.Jonathan said:
It's not just a bit of rain. It's the collapse of majority of the South East commuter network. Suspect you would have felt differently 18 Sep 2014 if this had impacted Glasgow.malcolmg said:
Should NOT, just because of a bit of rain, give us a break.
PS: I have been taxed a fortune to gild London and its wasted by a few showers , what cretins planned that
http://www.egip.info/
As an aside, ISTR BR worked out in the 1980s that the entire rail network could be controlled from just four massive signal boxes. They chose not to start down that route for various reasons. I've always wondered why it couldn't just be one: the speed of light is too slow, perhaps?
Whilst the speed of light is fast, you need to consider how far light travels in one clock tick. The speed of light is roughly 300000000 metres per second. If the chip runs at 3GHz, or 3000000000. This means that in one clock tick, the signal can only travel 10 cm. Whilst chips are not that large, the signal in the chips might not take a direct route, and have multiple layers to negotiate.
In addition, the speed of 'light' (i.e. signal transmission) in silicon is less than the speed of light in a vacuum; from memory, a little over half. There's also an issue with electron speed, wrt transistors, but I know little about that.
Intel et al are working around this problem to some extent, but it's a hard limit.
Although I daresay an expert will be along to say the above is b/s!
For the railways, you're looking at getting signals to and from points as disparate as Penzance and Wick, perhaps on millisecond-timings, multiple times. I;m not a signalling expert, but it wouldn't surprise me if the SoL was a factor.0 -
Vote early, vote often!John_N4 said:
At least not using the same identitytimmo said:These reports of half the list crossed off are a bit spurious. I was one of the first to vote this morning and a lot of the list was crossed off because they are the people who have been sent postal votes. This doesnt mean they have been returned just sent and this ensure that nobody can vote twice.
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So it would seem.FrancisUrquhart said:
Postal votes weeks in advance during exams / end of year parties though?foxinsoxuk said:
Fox jr said that his Facebook feed has been full of posts on voting and registration by his fellow students. Not a single one going for Leave. Selection bias maybe, but they do seem very enthused. The kids are alright.FrancisUrquhart said:
Crickey that would be organised of them...but then students aren't what they used to be.rcs1000 said:
We were talking about postals in Newcastle - I'm thinking the high number might be bacause students got them before buggering offFrancisUrquhart said:
uni finished last week there...I would have imagined the little darlings will have buggered off home by now.rcs1000 said:
It's a very studenty town at the end of term... so hard to make definitive conclusion. We'll find out by about 12:30am mindDanSmith said:
32% postal vote is very good for Leave.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Great for democracy, I'd love to see a turnout as high as Indyref. Might be strong for Leave?pinkrose said:
Or maybe not,
Who knows?0 -
Hi there BenedictBenedictWhite said:
I work at GCHQ... Not MI5....
Who nobbled Nigel Farage last night?
Same question regarding the Sun.
And was Thomas Mair the property of any agency, or "known" at all?
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So it would seem.FrancisUrquhart said:
Postal votes weeks in advance during exams / end of year parties though?foxinsoxuk said:
Fox jr said that his Facebook feed has been full of posts on voting and registration by his fellow students. Not a single one going for Leave. Selection bias maybe, but they do seem very enthused. The kids are alright.FrancisUrquhart said:
Crickey that would be organised of them...but then students aren't what they used to be.rcs1000 said:
We were talking about postals in Newcastle - I'm thinking the high number might be bacause students got them before buggering offFrancisUrquhart said:
uni finished last week there...I would have imagined the little darlings will have buggered off home by now.rcs1000 said:
It's a very studenty town at the end of term... so hard to make definitive conclusion. We'll find out by about 12:30am mindDanSmith said:
32% postal vote is very good for Leave.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Great for democracy, I'd love to see a turnout as high as Indyref. Might be strong for Leave?pinkrose said:
Or maybe not,
Who knows?0 -
I have been criss-crossing Kirklees today. We have a local tradition of putting posters on lamp posts. Today is different from usual where most of the posters are in marginal wards. The leave posters are scattered across the borough, mostly around roundabouts and supermarkets. All the Labour remain posters are in their strong, usually Asian, wards. The Lib Dem IN posters are mostly in their strong wards of Cleckheaton and Almondbury. It looks as if there is a coordinated campaign to get out the core vote. It is very strange however to see red and yellow posters but no green and blue ones - even in the fields.0
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As I say, students ain't what they uses to be!foxinsoxuk said:
So it would seem.FrancisUrquhart said:
Postal votes weeks in advance during exams / end of year parties though?foxinsoxuk said:
Fox jr said that his Facebook feed has been full of posts on voting and registration by his fellow students. Not a single one going for Leave. Selection bias maybe, but they do seem very enthused. The kids are alright.FrancisUrquhart said:
Crickey that would be organised of them...but then students aren't what they used to be.rcs1000 said:
We were talking about postals in Newcastle - I'm thinking the high number might be bacause students got them before buggering offFrancisUrquhart said:
uni finished last week there...I would have imagined the little darlings will have buggered off home by now.rcs1000 said:
It's a very studenty town at the end of term... so hard to make definitive conclusion. We'll find out by about 12:30am mindDanSmith said:
32% postal vote is very good for Leave.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Great for democracy, I'd love to see a turnout as high as Indyref. Might be strong for Leave?pinkrose said:
Or maybe not,
Who knows?0 -
New thread0
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A very good point. IME the postal voters are usually crossed out, as you say, by drawing a line right through their name on the register, whereas voters as they come in are marked with a tick mark, usually left of their polling number. Over the course of a day this is quicker and easier than laboriously crossing every name right through, doesn't need a ruler, and avoids inadvertently drawing over names of the voters above and below.timmo said:These reports of half the list crossed off are a bit spurious. I was one of the first to vote this morning and a lot of the list was crossed off because they are the people who have been sent postal votes. This doesnt mean they have been returned just sent and this ensure that nobody can vote twice.
So people drawing conclusions from a quick glance at the presiding officer's master register need to know what they are looking for...0 -
It's not the speed of light, it's the speed of electrons - you touched on that briefly. The quest for higher electron mobility has been a key driver in the development of some of the new materials like Gallium Nitride.JosiasJessop said:
As an aside: curiously, one of the factors influencing chip design is the speed of light.RobD said:
Surely not the speed of light? I can ping my computer in San Francisco in ~150ms (which I think is the round trip time?)JosiasJessop said:
It's much more that just one signal box:malcolmg said:
now you are splitting hairs, we have one new signal boxPaul_Bedfordshire said:
If london is so gilded how come they are still struggling with early twentieth century d.c. third rail electrification systems and signalling that pre dates world war 2 while you have nice new signalling and overhead 25kV electrification in Glasgow?malcolmg said:
Bet it is a light shower or two, we get real rain up here not your 3 mm stuff.Jonathan said:
It's not just a bit of rain. It's the collapse of majority of the South East commuter network. Suspect you would have felt differently 18 Sep 2014 if this had impacted Glasgow.malcolmg said:
Should NOT, just because of a bit of rain, give us a break.
PS: I have been taxed a fortune to gild London and its wasted by a few showers , what cretins planned that
http://www.egip.info/
As an aside, ISTR BR worked out in the 1980s that the entire rail network could be controlled from just four massive signal boxes. They chose not to start down that route for various reasons. I've always wondered why it couldn't just be one: the speed of light is too slow, perhaps?
In addition, the speed of 'light' (i.e. signal transmission) in silicon is less than the speed of light in a vacuum; from memory, a little over half. There's also an issue with electron speed, wrt transistors, but I know little about that.
Intel et al are working around this problem to some extent, but it's a hard limit.
Although I daresay an expert will be along to say the above is b/s!
For the railways, you're looking at getting signals to and from points as disparate as Penzance and Wick, perhaps on millisecond-timings, multiple times. I;m not a signalling expert, but it wouldn't surprise me if the SoL was a factor.
We've had issues with clock skew for years. It's not going to get better. People are still beavering away on asynchronous designs, but that's not an area I follow.0 -
I have just voted with the spirit of the late great Anthony Wedgewood Benn to leave the European union. A good laugh with the usual agents at my polling station about why I was there so early - turnout is 2x general election here.
I equate high turnout with Leave voters in the places I am sampling, just as I rightly equated high turnout in other polling stations last May with Tories. Remain may prevail. But I rejoice in people voting regardless0 -
That is exactly what I saw. Perhaps a quarter had a line through and another 60% had a tick.IanB2 said:
A very good point. IME the postal voters are usually crossed out, as you say, by drawing a line right through their name on the register, whereas voters as they come in are marked with a tick mark, usually left of their polling number. Over the course of a day this is quicker and easier than laboriously crossing every name right through, doesn't need a ruler, and avoids inadvertently drawing over names of the voters above and below.timmo said:These reports of half the list crossed off are a bit spurious. I was one of the first to vote this morning and a lot of the list was crossed off because they are the people who have been sent postal votes. This doesnt mean they have been returned just sent and this ensure that nobody can vote twice.
So people drawing conclusions from a quick glance at the presiding officer's master register need to know what they are looking for...0 -
Only jokingJohn_N4 said:
Hi there BenedictBenedictWhite said:
I work at GCHQ... Not MI5....
Who nobbled Nigel Farage last night?
Same question regarding the Sun.
And was Thomas Mair the property of any agency, or "known" at all?
I suspect Thomas Mair was known to the local NHS trust for his issues though.0 -
As an aside: curiously, one of the factors influencing chip design is the speed of light.JosiasJessop said:
Surely not the speed of light? I can ping my computer in San Francisco in ~150ms (which I think is the round trip time?)RobD said:
It's much more that just one signal box:JosiasJessop said:
now you are splitting hairs, we have one new signal boxmalcolmg said:
If london is so gilded how come they are still struggling with early twentieth century d.c. third rail electrification systems and signalling that pre dates world war 2 while you have nice new signalling and overhead 25kV electrification in Glasgow?Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Bet it is a light shower or two, we get real rain up here not your 3 mm stuff.
PS: I have been taxed a fortune to gild London and its wasted by a few showers , what cretins planned that
http://www.egip.info/
As an aside, ISTR BR worked out in the 1980s that the entire rail network could be controlled from just four massive signal boxes. They chose not to start down that route for various reasons. I've always wondered why it couldn't just be one: the speed of light is too slow, perhaps?
Whilst the speed of light is fast, you need to consider how far light travels in one clock tick. The speed of light is roughly 300000000 metres per second. If the chip runs at 3GHz, or 3000000000. This means that in one clock tick, the signal can only travel 10 cm. Whilst chips are not that large, the signal in the chips might not take a direct route, and have multiple layers to negotiate.
In addition, the speed of 'light' (i.e. signal transmission) in silicon is less than the speed of light in a vacuum; from memory, a little over half. There's also an issue with electron speed, wrt transistors, but I know little about that.
Intel et al are working around this problem to some extent, but it's a hard limit.
Although I daresay an expert will be along to say the above is b/s!
For the railways, you're looking at getting signals to and from points as disparate as Penzance and Wick, perhaps on millisecond-timings, multiple times. I;m not a signalling expert, but it wouldn't surprise me if the SoL was a factor.
You've almost entirely demonstrated that the speed of light isn't a factor. To all practical intents and purposes its instant. If you're a scientist though. especially one that lies in bed 'til the sun is low on the horizon, it's a bit lackadaisical.
Einstein and others used trains as an example, so choo, choo!
PS Sorry I messed up the editing. My comments start at 'You've' (near the bottom)0 -
Async chips were being worked on in Manchester by Steve Furber, one of the original designers of the ARM chip. They were called Amulet.John_M said:
It's not the speed of light, it's the speed of electrons - you touched on that briefly. The quest for higher electron mobility has been a key driver in the development of some of the new materials like Gallium Nitride.JosiasJessop said:
As an aside: curiously, one of the factors influencing chip design is the speed of light.RobD said:
Surely not the speed of light? I can ping my computer in San Francisco in ~150ms (which I think is the round trip time?)JosiasJessop said:
It's much more that just one signal box:malcolmg said:
now you are splitting hairs, we have one new signal boxPaul_Bedfordshire said:
If london is so gilded how come they are still struggling with early twentieth century d.c. third rail electrification systems and signalling that pre dates world war 2 while you have nice new signalling and overhead 25kV electrification in Glasgow?malcolmg said:
Bet it is a light shower or two, we get real rain up here not your 3 mm stuff.Jonathan said:
It's not just a bit of rain. It's the collapse of majority of the South East commuter network. Suspect you would have felt differently 18 Sep 2014 if this had impacted Glasgow.malcolmg said:
Should NOT, just because of a bit of rain, give us a break.
PS: I have been taxed a fortune to gild London and its wasted by a few showers , what cretins planned that
http://www.egip.info/
As an aside, ISTR BR worked out in the 1980s that the entire rail network could be controlled from just four massive signal boxes. They chose not to start down that route for various reasons. I've always wondered why it couldn't just be one: the speed of light is too slow, perhaps?
In addition, the speed of 'light' (i.e. signal transmission) in silicon is less than the speed of light in a vacuum; from memory, a little over half. There's also an issue with electron speed, wrt transistors, but I know little about that.
Intel et al are working around this problem to some extent, but it's a hard limit.
Although I daresay an expert will be along to say the above is b/s!
For the railways, you're looking at getting signals to and from points as disparate as Penzance and Wick, perhaps on millisecond-timings, multiple times. I;m not a signalling expert, but it wouldn't surprise me if the SoL was a factor.
We've had issues with clock skew for years. It's not going to get better. People are still beavering away on asynchronous designs, but that's not an area I follow.0 -
You are right, but I meant friends *outside* Turkey.eek said:
Erdogan has plenty of friends - just not in the Westernized parts of Istanbul and Antalya. Head outside there and his strong man image is still liked and respected...JosiasJessop said:
It's not that popular in various parts of Turkey. Polls on the matter are varied to say the least.RobD said:
Erdogan is going to rapidly run out of friends ...0 -
Oh well, here we go.0
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I'm hoping the turnout is ridiculously high, something like 85%. Probably won't be, but it'd be really awesome if it was.0
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oops, old thread!0
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