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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why the betting has often seemed so out of line with the po

SystemSystem Posts: 12,360
edited June 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why the betting has often seemed so out of line with the polls – a possible explanation

Barely a day has gone by in the past few months when I have not been asked why the referendum betting odds were/are so out of line with the polling. Surely , it has been said, that if the polls have it level pegging or even LEAVE leads then why has REMAIN stayed as such a strong odds-on favourite.

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Comments

  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,639
    First?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,639
    And also second.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited June 2016
    but not douglas hurd...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    edited June 2016
    4th?
    £15m on Betfair in the last 24 hours! Now 84/16% chance.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,031
    edited June 2016
    People can happily vote their desire - Leave - expecting others will ensure the Remain victory means they don't have to confront their fear - Leave.

    That spells "oooops...." to me!

    EDIT: and Henry V..... (cue THAT speech....)
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,639
    I don't find these polls of what people think is going to happen that much help. Tell me what you're going to do, not what you think everyone else is going to do - that way we can make an informed decision on what everyone else is going to do.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,031
    Sandpit said:

    4th?
    £15m on Betfair in the last 24 hours! Now 84/16% chance.

    And yet TSE thinks Remain have blown it.....
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    MarqueeMark said:

    Sandpit said:

    4th?
    £15m on Betfair in the last 24 hours! Now 84/16% chance.

    And yet TSE thinks Remain have blown it.....
    He's trying to downplay remain so his 12 point lead comes true.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,965
    Cookie said:

    I don't find these polls of what people think is going to happen that much help. Tell me what you're going to do, not what you think everyone else is going to do - that way we can make an informed decision on what everyone else is going to do.

    These polls are not much good at predicting what will happen as you say. But they do explain the betting.

    It could be circular. People think Remain will win because that is what the betting indicates, - and the betting indicates that Remain will win because that is what most people think. Hmm.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,961
    Wisdom of crowds were totally wrong for GE...but then the media narrative was nailed on hung parliament.
  • RepublicanToryRepublicanTory Posts: 563
    Friend doing the telling at a polling station in middle of Deal (Dover count)
    Says turnout up on GE at this stage of the day and definitely seeing people who don't vote often.
    Not much sign that the youth vote is up.


  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,208

    NEW THREAD NEW THREAD

  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,965
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    NEW THREAD NEW THREAD

    Wrong thread!
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3656143/Total-shambles-Fury-people-turned-away-voting-EU-referendum-errors-Leighton-Buzzard-polling-station.html

    And so it begins....they were never gonna let EU go! Shameful! Mi5 more like mihatebritain
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    Cookie said:

    I don't find these polls of what people think is going to happen that much help. Tell me what you're going to do, not what you think everyone else is going to do - that way we can make an informed decision on what everyone else is going to do.

    Maybe you need to reread OGHs top piece.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,686
    RepublicanTory said:

    Friend doing the telling at a polling station in middle of Deal (Dover count)
    Says turnout up on GE at this stage of the day and definitely seeing people who don't vote often.
    Not much sign that the youth vote is up.


    is there a youth vote in Deal?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,321
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Wisdom of crowds were totally wrong for GE...but then the media narrative was nailed on hung parliament.

    There is no wisdom of crowds anyway. The same people that talk about such things also go on to talk about bubbles. Crowds go less mad than individuals, but they're no better at judging things - and this must be true by definition almost.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Andrew Allison
    Does this street in Beverley hold the record for the most @vote_leave signs in any street in the country? https://t.co/A1O4s1Mw3D
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,760
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    NEW THREAD NEW THREAD

    Well yes, we noticed.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,208
    Sunil has just texted me he's just voted in Ilford
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,308
    Damn and blast, just after I posted two important things on the last thread. Anyway: FPT:

    My mum just revealed her friend, who works at the polling station and has done so for many elections, reckons in the first hour they get as many voters as for a whole 'other' election. I asked but she didn't specify if that meant a council/European/General Election.

    Even so, it suggests high turnout. I would guess this area will be fairly heavily Leave.

    Also: Loving EU Is A Dirty Job.

    Edited extra bit: I Hate Myself For Loving EU
  • RepublicanToryRepublicanTory Posts: 563
    rottenborough said:

    RepublicanTory said:

    Friend doing the telling at a polling station in middle of Deal (Dover count)
    Says turnout up on GE at this stage of the day and definitely seeing people who don't vote often.
    Not much sign that the youth vote is up.


    is there a youth vote in Deal?
    Yes-there are some pretty chunky estates where the uni students are home and it is still a relatively cheap area to rent-although that is starting to change

    It isn't a big youth area such as Canterbury but it inst Geriatric ville !!
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    rottenborough said:

    RepublicanTory said:

    Friend doing the telling at a polling station in middle of Deal (Dover count)
    Says turnout up on GE at this stage of the day and definitely seeing people who don't vote often.
    Not much sign that the youth vote is up.


    is there a youth vote in Deal?
    Yup - the 60-75s :)
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,321
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Damn and blast, just after I posted two important things on the last thread. Anyway: FPT:

    My mum just revealed her friend, who works at the polling station and has done so for many elections, reckons in the first hour they get as many voters as for a whole 'other' election. I asked but she didn't specify if that meant a council/European/General Election.

    Even so, it suggests high turnout. I would guess this area will be fairly heavily Leave.

    Also: Loving EU Is A Dirty Job.

    Edited extra bit: I Hate Myself For Loving EU

    It was song titles we were after MD rather than quotes from your personal correspondence.. :P (ps sorry)
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Moved recently so this is my first vote in my new constituency but in all my votes since the 2001 General Election I've not seen such a steady stream of people coming and going to the ballot box. What it means I can't tell other than anecdotally I think turnout may be high. Have to say the weather is absolutely glorious in this part of the world.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,078
    edited June 2016
    Here in Central London, it's 100% Remain, not a Leave poster / badge / volunteer in sight.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,756
    murali_s said:

    Here in Central London, it's 100% Remain, not a Leave poster / badge / volunteer insight.

    But your parents voted Leave
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    WSJ
    Senior official from populist AfD Party calls for a German referendum on EU membership—Live coverage of Brexit vote https://t.co/EzHzbHs0zn

    Oh and it's returned to thunderstorms here
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,031
    felix said:

    rottenborough said:

    RepublicanTory said:

    Friend doing the telling at a polling station in middle of Deal (Dover count)
    Says turnout up on GE at this stage of the day and definitely seeing people who don't vote often.
    Not much sign that the youth vote is up.


    is there a youth vote in Deal?
    Yup - the 60-75s :)
    Arf!
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,078
    edited June 2016
    Alanbrooke said:

    murali_s said:

    Here in Central London, it's 100% Remain, not a Leave poster / badge / volunteer insight.

    But your parents voted Leave
    They did but they don't live in Central London and I'm at work. Can't afford to live here!
  • RepublicanToryRepublicanTory Posts: 563
    felix said:

    rottenborough said:

    RepublicanTory said:

    Friend doing the telling at a polling station in middle of Deal (Dover count)
    Says turnout up on GE at this stage of the day and definitely seeing people who don't vote often.
    Not much sign that the youth vote is up.


    is there a youth vote in Deal?
    Yup - the 60-75s :)
    Harsh !!!

    There are some cracking pubs in Deal-many of the Town Center pubs are open until 2pm on a Saturday night-lots of live bands and great beers.

    It is also becoming increasingly popular and trendy with the LGBT community.

    It has a nice vibe to it -especially in the summer.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    EU don't always get what EU want
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    edited June 2016
    Hmm I still think that Leave will win, however if the polls had been more accurate and predicted a leave win then remain may have edged it IMO (as more apathetic remains would have turned out). Should be a very interesting few months after the referendum as we analyse how and why the polls and betting markets were so far off.

    Turnout is looking high whenever I've had a chance to see.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,686
    Omnium said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Wisdom of crowds were totally wrong for GE...but then the media narrative was nailed on hung parliament.

    There is no wisdom of crowds anyway. The same people that talk about such things also go on to talk about bubbles. Crowds go less mad than individuals, but they're no better at judging things - and this must be true by definition almost.
    There is a wisdom of crowds, but only under specific circumstances. Darwin's cousin Francis Galton discovered it when he found that the average of all the guesses of a crowd of people about a cow's weight was exactly the right answer.

    He was miffed, as he had set out to show that the average person was thick.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,285
    Morris_Dancer said:


    Edited extra bit: I Hate Myself For Loving EU

    As any Englishman should. :p
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,756
    murali_s said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    murali_s said:

    Here in Central London, it's 100% Remain, not a Leave poster / badge / volunteer insight.

    But your parents voted Leave
    They did but they don't live in Central London!
    sound like sensible folk on both accounts :-)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,285
    RepublicanTory said:

    felix said:

    rottenborough said:

    RepublicanTory said:

    Friend doing the telling at a polling station in middle of Deal (Dover count)
    Says turnout up on GE at this stage of the day and definitely seeing people who don't vote often.
    Not much sign that the youth vote is up.


    is there a youth vote in Deal?
    Yup - the 60-75s :)
    Harsh !!!

    There are some cracking pubs in Deal-many of the Town Center pubs are open until 2pm on a Saturday night-lots of live bands and great beers.
    Hehe, great typo :D
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,786
    How can remain be 84% - 16% - and what happens to bets if leave wins - (I don't bet or really understand it)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,308
    Everyday I Love EU Less And Less.

    Mr. Omnium, how very dare you!
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    Paddy Power the top loser on the FTSE today (down 4.5% according to BBC). Are they in for a soaking tonight?
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,872
    Just hearing slight suggestions of low turnout in Remain-friendly Edinburgh thus far. Make of it what you will.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sunil has just texted me he's just voted in Ilford

    Well done Sunil, provisional winner of the best trip to the polling station award 2016. Has anyone else gone way out of their way to manage to vote today?
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    What was the prediction for the result based on turnout? I seem to remember low turnout was good for Leave, medium was good for Remain and high was good for Leave.

    I come back again to what Isabel Hardman said last night on Newsnight. Labour was originally worried about apathy amongst their own voters. Now they're hoping some of those voters decide to stay in bed.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,834
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    How can remain be 84% - 16% - and what happens to bets if leave wins - (I don't bet or really understand it)

    Because a narrow lead in the polls translates into a reasonably high probability of having more votes than the other side

    The bets on remain are all lost and the people who have backed leave buy us all lots of drinks
  • RepublicanToryRepublicanTory Posts: 563
    RobD said:

    RepublicanTory said:

    felix said:

    rottenborough said:

    RepublicanTory said:

    Friend doing the telling at a polling station in middle of Deal (Dover count)
    Says turnout up on GE at this stage of the day and definitely seeing people who don't vote often.
    Not much sign that the youth vote is up.


    is there a youth vote in Deal?
    Yup - the 60-75s :)
    Harsh !!!

    There are some cracking pubs in Deal-many of the Town Center pubs are open until 2pm on a Saturday night-lots of live bands and great beers.
    Hehe, great typo :D
    Well its bed time for all the oldies :)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,285
    Excellent news re: Sunil. One only hopes the heralds were there to greet him ;)
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,692
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sunil has just texted me he's just voted in Ilford

    I suppose he want for REMAIN? ;)
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,776
    edited June 2016
    Seems transport in London is seriously disrupted by floods. Could it affect voting in Remain City enough to make the difference?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,786
    IanB2 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    How can remain be 84% - 16% - and what happens to bets if leave wins - (I don't bet or really understand it)

    Because a narrow lead in the polls translates into a reasonably high probability of having more votes than the other side

    The bets on remain are all lost and the people who have backed leave buy us all lots of drinks
    Thanks for that - so if leave win do the bookies lose
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,212
    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    Just hearing slight suggestions of low turnout in Remain-friendly Edinburgh thus far. Make of it what you will.

    I voted at 7.30am but would concur. Nothing like queues. More oldies than anything (good for you, hope it's Leave). Perhaps it got busier later.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,756
    Sandpit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sunil has just texted me he's just voted in Ilford

    Well done Sunil, provisional winner of the best trip to the polling station award 2016. Has anyone else gone way out of their way to manage to vote today?
    My brother flew back from Germany last night to vote.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,078
    FF43 said:

    Seems transport in London is seriously disrupted by floods. Could it affect voting in Remain City enough to make the difference?

    Yes that's a big worry - guess peak time at polling stations is 6-10pm?
  • LordWakefieldLordWakefield Posts: 144
    TudorRose said:

    Paddy Power the top loser on the FTSE today (down 4.5% according to BBC). Are they in for a soaking tonight?

    Paddy Power own Betfair, I would expect them to lay any excess liabilities off on the Exchange.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Northwest Kent (and presumbly south London at least) is suffering a complete deluge.

    It's as dark as night.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,834
    edited June 2016
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    IanB2 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    How can remain be 84% - 16% - and what happens to bets if leave wins - (I don't bet or really understand it)

    Because a narrow lead in the polls translates into a reasonably high probability of having more votes than the other side

    The bets on remain are all lost and the people who have backed leave buy us all lots of drinks
    Thanks for that - so if leave win do the bookies lose
    If they have done their sums right, the larger lost bets on Remain should cover the cost of paying out the winnings to the Leave people (on betfair, since bets are matched, the transfers take place directly between the two sets of punters). Typically however bookmakers tend to do better when the expected happens (favourite wins) and can be caught out if something at longer odds comes in a winner. Whether they would actually be out of pocket with a Leave win, I have no idea. With just two outcomes, I suspect not - it's not exactly the same as a 100/1 horse winning the Grand National, after all...
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    Alanbrooke said:

    Sandpit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sunil has just texted me he's just voted in Ilford

    Well done Sunil, provisional winner of the best trip to the polling station award 2016. Has anyone else gone way out of their way to manage to vote today?
    My brother flew back from Germany last night to vote.

    That's nothing. I had to go an extra 200 yards because they'd moved the polling station.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,308
    Mr. Booth, she said that on the Sky papers as well. Ought to be on TV a bit more, a good deal more sensible than many journalists.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    FrankBooth said:

    What was the prediction for the result based on turnout? I seem to remember low turnout was good for Leave, medium was good for Remain and high was good for Leave.

    I come back again to what Isabel Hardman said last night on Newsnight. Labour was originally worried about apathy amongst their own voters. Now they're hoping some of those voters decide to stay in bed.

    I don't know what they are, but my hunch is that 56-70 is good for Remain. Above that ~75 would be very good for leave (as lots of WWC will have turned out)
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,776
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    Just hearing slight suggestions of low turnout in Remain-friendly Edinburgh thus far. Make of it what you will.

    I voted at 7.30am but would concur. Nothing like queues. More oldies than anything (good for you, hope it's Leave). Perhaps it got busier later.
    Not very busy when I voted but, interestingly, numbers of late twenties/thirty somethings. The demographic that voted Yes in Indyref and presumably will vote Remain this time
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    edited June 2016
    It is not beyond the realms of possibility that this referendum could be decided by postal votes of people who have died before polling day. (i.e. voted when still alive)
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Alanbrooke said:

    Sandpit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sunil has just texted me he's just voted in Ilford

    Well done Sunil, provisional winner of the best trip to the polling station award 2016. Has anyone else gone way out of their way to manage to vote today?
    My brother flew back from Germany last night to vote.
    Another one for the short list, well done to him.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    KentRising said:

    Northwest Kent (and presumbly south London at least) is suffering a complete deluge.

    It's as dark as night.

    Plague of frogs next... maybe Cameron was right about the end of the world?
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    edited June 2016
    Ladbrokes gave the reason for the betting odds being more in favour of REMAIN is that the average REMAIN bet was over £400 but the average leave bet was under £100.

    Rich people are inclined to bet REMAIN and poor people are inclined to bet LEAVE, probably because that is their experience amongst the people they know.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,756
    MarkHopkins said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Sandpit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sunil has just texted me he's just voted in Ilford

    Well done Sunil, provisional winner of the best trip to the polling station award 2016. Has anyone else gone way out of their way to manage to vote today?
    My brother flew back from Germany last night to vote.

    That's nothing. I had to go an extra 200 yards because they'd moved the polling station.

    LOL, but at least you showed the dedication to go the whole way :-)
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,786
    IanB2 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    IanB2 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    How can remain be 84% - 16% - and what happens to bets if leave wins - (I don't bet or really understand it)

    Because a narrow lead in the polls translates into a reasonably high probability of having more votes than the other side

    The bets on remain are all lost and the people who have backed leave buy us all lots of drinks
    Thanks for that - so if leave win do the bookies lose
    If they have done their sums right, the larger lost bets on Remain should cover the cost of paying out the winnings to the Leave people (on betfair, since bets are matched, the transfers take place directly between the two sets of punters). Typically however bookmakers tend to do better when the expected happens (favourite wins) and can be caught out if something at longer odds comes in a winner. Whether they would actually be out of pocket with a Leave win, I have no idea. With just two outcomes, I suspect not - it's not exactly the same as a 100/1 horse winning the Grand National, after all...
    You are enlightening me - thanks - interesting
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,872
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    Just hearing slight suggestions of low turnout in Remain-friendly Edinburgh thus far. Make of it what you will.

    I voted at 7.30am but would concur. Nothing like queues. More oldies than anything (good for you, hope it's Leave). Perhaps it got busier later.
    I was straight in at 7am, and it was much quieter than a GE, only 2 of us. Normally a few people in there at 7, if its decent weather, which it was.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,308
    Mr. Evershed, if they turn out equally, Leave win. But if they turn out equally, that would mean pretty damned high turnout.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    weejonnie said:

    It is not beyond the realms of possibility that this referendum could be decided by postal votes of people who have died before polling day. (i.e. voted when still alive)

    That's c3000 votes.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Way off topic, today's good news story:
    Two sick workers evacuated safely from the South Pole research station, after a massive rescue mission.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jun/21/antarctica-polar-rescue-planes-medical-emergency
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    David_Evershed said:

    Ladbrokes gave the reason for the betting odds being more in favour of REMAIN is that the average REMAIN bet was over £400 but the average leave bet was under £100.

    Rich people are inclined to bet REMAIN and poor people are inclined to bet LEAVE, probably because that is their experience amongst the people they know.

    If so then Betfair is hopelessly skewed towards Remain. You can put £1000 on Remain - but you only have 1 vote still.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,308
    Miss Plato, 3,000 was the winning margin in the Austrian presidential election.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,786
    KentRising said:

    Northwest Kent (and presumbly south London at least) is suffering a complete deluge.

    It's as dark as night.

    There was a property owner on Sky in Essex under water and at one time up the knee. If this is happening over leave's strongest area will that cause a problem for leave or remain
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,031
    FF43 said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    Just hearing slight suggestions of low turnout in Remain-friendly Edinburgh thus far. Make of it what you will.

    I voted at 7.30am but would concur. Nothing like queues. More oldies than anything (good for you, hope it's Leave). Perhaps it got busier later.
    Not very busy when I voted but, interestingly, numbers of late twenties/thirty somethings. The demographic that voted Yes in Indyref and presumably will vote Remain this time
    Isn't there SOME risk of shy-Leavers in the SNP ranks. Don't want to go against the leadership in public, but know that Leave gives the best chance of another Referendum to get out the UK?
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Miss Plato, 3,000 was the winning margin in the Austrian presidential election.

    Am I right in thinking that they didn't have a recount?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    KentRising said:

    Northwest Kent (and presumbly south London at least) is suffering a complete deluge.

    It's as dark as night.

    The night is darkest just before dawn.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sunil has just texted me he's just voted in Ilford

    Sunil is the very epitome of a shy leaver

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,031
    KentRising said:

    Northwest Kent (and presumbly south London at least) is suffering a complete deluge.

    It's as dark as night.

    Night? That must mean the polling stations are closed then...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,686
    Chameleon said:

    FrankBooth said:

    What was the prediction for the result based on turnout? I seem to remember low turnout was good for Leave, medium was good for Remain and high was good for Leave.

    I come back again to what Isabel Hardman said last night on Newsnight. Labour was originally worried about apathy amongst their own voters. Now they're hoping some of those voters decide to stay in bed.

    I don't know what they are, but my hunch is that 56-70 is good for Remain. Above that ~75 would be very good for leave (as lots of WWC will have turned out)
    YouGove have an interactive tool:

    https://yougov.co.uk/turnout-o-meter/?turnout=60&overallremaing=9&agefactor=1.4&classfactor=1

    Leave win on the current 2% polling average lead (for Remain) on a turn out of 70% or under (assuming no skew to older voters, which there will be).
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Leave will win if Londoners can't get back home to vote. The flooding on the transport network is like some sort of sick joke.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,004
    "Brisk" turnout in Killamarsh, but not overwhelming so far as I could work out.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,756
    Charles said:

    KentRising said:

    Northwest Kent (and presumbly south London at least) is suffering a complete deluge.

    It's as dark as night.

    The night is darkest just before dawn.
    Yes tomorrow when weve shifted the deadhand of Osborne and Juncker, we'll be singing Mr Blue Sky with TSE.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,004
    Jobabob said:

    Leave will win if Londoners can't get back home to vote. The flooding on the transport network is like some sort of sick joke.

    The radio report was from Romford though ? Surely a bit of a kippery area ?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,308
    Mr. Pulpstar, but is it a Remain or Leave area?

    Mr. Bob, I wonder if there would be genuine calls for a re-run. Hmm.

    Mr. Smithson, is Dr. Prasannan voting Leave? He should have said something.

    Mr. Rose, I believe not. Some areas had Tower Hamlets' turnout, though.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,031
    Sandpit said:

    Way off topic, today's good news story:
    Two sick workers evacuated safely from the South Pole research station, after a massive rescue mission.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jun/21/antarctica-polar-rescue-planes-medical-emergency

    But...two at once needed evacuating? What is this - The Thing?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,756
    Jobabob said:

    Leave will win if Londoners can't get back home to vote. The flooding on the transport network is like some sort of sick joke.

    Divine retribution. Wait until the plagues of boils and the frogs turn up.
  • theakestheakes Posts: 954
    Morris Dancer.You have summed it up "I guess". Nobody knows. Somebody said Warrington is a big Leave area, news to me. Consderable commuter belt in all directions, on the main line, M6, key industrial base for European firms etc, I used to work there. Really no - one knows.
    I live in the West Midlands and can only report that mothers at my grand daughters school in a less affluent area of the town, are heavily voting to Remain, (according to my daughter), apparently they all chat at the school gate. Me I have no personal idea or knowledge and await the outcome. I voted almost 3 weeks ago Remain, but have a bet on leave at 3-1. I have no idea at all whether I will be calling to collect tomorrow or not.
    Whatever happens we are in the EEC tomorrow, next week, next month, next year, even the year after, maybe even at the 2020 election. If Leave win, events usually take over and will we ever Leave, it has to be a big question. We may well look back in 2 years time and wonder what on earth was that all about!!!!!!
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    IanB2 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    How can remain be 84% - 16% - and what happens to bets if leave wins - (I don't bet or really understand it)

    Because a narrow lead in the polls translates into a reasonably high probability of having more votes than the other side

    The bets on remain are all lost and the people who have backed leave buy us all lots of drinks
    100% correct - It's the LAW
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,686
    Jobabob said:

    Leave will win if Londoners can't get back home to vote. The flooding on the transport network is like some sort of sick joke.

    Worrying.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,063
    Returned from work to find a couple of young VoteLeavers pushing leaflets through letterboxes - definitely working harder than Remain, which I'm still surprised about, given the effort the local LDs put in to win the seat in 2015.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,031
    Alanbrooke said:

    Jobabob said:

    Leave will win if Londoners can't get back home to vote. The flooding on the transport network is like some sort of sick joke.

    Divine retribution. Wait until the plagues of boils and the frogs turn up.
    Just HM the Q, Defender of the Faith, having a word with the Big Man upstairs....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,063
    Jobabob said:

    Leave will win if Londoners can't get back home to vote. The flooding on the transport network is like some sort of sick joke.

    Unfortunate if people cannot vote, but how many could have voted earlier? Not all would needed to have waited, although some would have.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,686
    Will we see polling stations opened for longer in flooded parts of London?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,212
    MarqueeMark said:

    FF43 said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    Just hearing slight suggestions of low turnout in Remain-friendly Edinburgh thus far. Make of it what you will.

    I voted at 7.30am but would concur. Nothing like queues. More oldies than anything (good for you, hope it's Leave). Perhaps it got busier later.
    Not very busy when I voted but, interestingly, numbers of late twenties/thirty somethings. The demographic that voted Yes in Indyref and presumably will vote Remain this time
    Isn't there SOME risk of shy-Leavers in the SNP ranks. Don't want to go against the leadership in public, but know that Leave gives the best chance of another Referendum to get out the UK?
    IMO not amongst the younger cohorts (and I don't pretend to be the world's authority).
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    IanB2 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    How can remain be 84% - 16% - and what happens to bets if leave wins - (I don't bet or really understand it)

    Because a narrow lead in the polls translates into a reasonably high probability of having more votes than the other side

    The bets on remain are all lost and the people who have backed leave buy us all lots of drinks
    100% correct - It's the LAW
    Only because the EU forced it on us.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Alanbrooke said:

    Jobabob said:

    Leave will win if Londoners can't get back home to vote. The flooding on the transport network is like some sort of sick joke.

    Divine retribution. Wait until the plagues of boils and the frogs turn up.
    I suppose boiling would be one way to get ride of the water. Although the frogs might not like it.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,321
    kle4 said:

    Jobabob said:

    Leave will win if Londoners can't get back home to vote. The flooding on the transport network is like some sort of sick joke.

    Unfortunate if people cannot vote, but how many could have voted earlier? Not all would needed to have waited, although some would have.
    Noone needs the transport network to vote in London. It'll be a short walk.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    KentRising said:

    Northwest Kent (and presumbly south London at least) is suffering a complete deluge.

    It's as dark as night.

    Old people have umbrellas but do young people?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,212
    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    Just hearing slight suggestions of low turnout in Remain-friendly Edinburgh thus far. Make of it what you will.

    I voted at 7.30am but would concur. Nothing like queues. More oldies than anything (good for you, hope it's Leave). Perhaps it got busier later.
    I was straight in at 7am, and it was much quieter than a GE, only 2 of us. Normally a few people in there at 7, if its decent weather, which it was.
    I wonder what's happening in Glasgow.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,756
    MarqueeMark said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Jobabob said:

    Leave will win if Londoners can't get back home to vote. The flooding on the transport network is like some sort of sick joke.

    Divine retribution. Wait until the plagues of boils and the frogs turn up.
    Just HM the Q, Defender of the Faith, having a word with the Big Man upstairs....
    or a hint to the betting markets, after all Dave promised the four horsemen if it's Leave,

    this is the warm up act.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Omnium said:

    kle4 said:

    Jobabob said:

    Leave will win if Londoners can't get back home to vote. The flooding on the transport network is like some sort of sick joke.

    Unfortunate if people cannot vote, but how many could have voted earlier? Not all would needed to have waited, although some would have.
    Noone needs the transport network to vote in London. It'll be a short walk.
    They do need it if they can't get home from work.

    Sorry, I am panicking probably.
This discussion has been closed.