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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why the betting has often seemed so out of line with the po

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  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,978
    Wish I could have gotten on to some of those Leave odds earlier.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,303
    nunu said:

    sarissa said:

    Just cast my vote in my city centre ward of Edinburgh SW - shocked at the low turnout so far. looked to be no more than 20-25% up to now, way down on 2015GE at roughly the same time.

    Scottish voter fatigue! Woohoo!
    Blimey. Remain HQ must be panicking if that is across all of Scotland.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,061

    PlatoSaid said:

    John_M said:

    RobD said:

    Mr. Eagles, still worried Leave will win?

    I'm always worried on election day.

    I'm taking a break from politics for a few hours, and focus on other things
    Preparing for the grueling night shift. I have my red bull ready, although it sounds as though it's going to be four hours of talking heads.
    I've reached that stage in life where I'll be awake periodically during the night whether I want to or not. I generally wake for reals around 4am at the latest. At least I'll have something to read :).
    I'm tempted to take a nap for a hour or so before 10pm. I've been up since 0545 and just had a swig of Red Bull. It's so warm and humid here - it's soul sapping.
    Napped all afternoon, now about to go to the pub for a few and then a curry. Back in time to start shouting at the telly. Probably fall asleep mid-way through the action. Unlike when I was young in '97 and lasted the whole night.
    I wasn't going to stay up for the GE last year, but I found I just could not sleep so I came on here as I listened to the results come in. PB was brilliant that night, especially (ahem) when some of the surprises occurred. (cough)Balls(cough)

    I'm planning to stay up all night tonight as the little 'un is in nursery tomorrow, but I probably won't make it. Also, I doubt it's going to be quite as interesting, even if it may be more important.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,291

    RobD said:

    Mr. Eagles, still worried Leave will win?

    I'm always worried on election day.

    I'm taking a break from politics for a few hours, and focus on other things
    Preparing for the grueling night shift. I have my red bull ready, although it sounds as though it's going to be four hours of talking heads.
    Prepping for the final episode of The Good Wife tonight.
    Wouldn't bother...
  • Options
    Six to one, six to one, six to one....
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,904
    Anecdote alert.

    My London commute was tricky tonight, both tube and train impacted. Some people might struggle to get home. Left early to ensure 10pm was not at risk.

    Internal chat forum at work totally Remain. Also lots of Remain stickers worn around Kings Cross.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    weejonnie said:

    Scott_P said:

    Evening all.

    Civic and Patriotic duty complete

    Turnout described as "good". 10 pages of voter list compared to 3 for a normal election

    Wow 150% voting.
    Vote often vote early
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    RobD said:

    Sandpit said:

    Jobabob said:

    Mr. Eagles, still worried Leave will win?

    I'm always worried on election day.

    I'm taking a break from politics for a few hours, and focus on other things

    Given the tropical weather, I have just started on the rum. I recommend it to TSE as a tonic, and to all fellow PBers.
    Wicked child! Drink is urine from the last leper in Hell!

    And as a good Muslim boy, I don't drink alcohol.
    A good enough Muslim boy to be fasting for Ramadan on midsummer's day? I'm just back from a work Iftar.
    Is it on Mecca time, given how late sunset is? If not, it must be awful for the folks in the arctic circle :D
    Some people in Northern climes do it on Mecca time. I think in UK is about 18 hours otherwise. Dubai is from 4am to about 7:10pm.
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    MonkeysMonkeys Posts: 755
    edited June 2016
    Voted, Edinburgh, 33% turnout maybe? Nothing amazing happening here.

    A french guy came in after me and was shocked to learn he couldn't vote.

    EDIT: Voted half an hour ago. 33% is me being generous.
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024

    Six to one, six to one, six to one....

    What does that mean?
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,303
    nunu said:

    OUT said:

    Iqbal_M said:

    Just back from voting from Dundee at about 5.20 pm. The people there said turnout is what it usually is.

    Same here. Saw my first leafleters today. 2 elderly ladies for remain.
    They were in a street where English is relegated to 3rd place as a language behind
    Junkie and Polish.
    Low turnout in Scotland. Excellent.
    Oh god.
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    theakestheakes Posts: 842
    If 30 million vote and Remain are ahead by 8 - 10%, I say if, and their voters turn out, then they win by what 2.5 to 3 milllion, and that assumes all the Leave voters turn out. It is going to be difficult for Leave even with rains in the South East, even there despite the weather could be that the middle classes,the AB's with their transport will turn up to vote rather than those without.
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    FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    Leave supporters may win even if they lose. Across Europe other countries are under pressure to hold their own referenda. We may become the only remaining member of the EU.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    sarissa said:

    Just cast my vote in my city centre ward of Edinburgh SW - shocked at the low turnout so far. looked to be no more than 20-25% up to now, way down on 2015GE at roughly the same time.

    Ooh,,that could be good news for Leave. Wasn't Edinburgh supposed to be in the top 10 Remain-leaning cities?
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,408
    Omnium said:

    Chameleon said:

    What's everyone's plans for tonight? I'm planning to get to bed early and then wake up early morning-ish around (4?) to watch the results. What are the first bell-weathers?

    (My understanding) Someone here suggested that (I think) Nuneaton would announce their count first at say 2am. If it's an easy win, then perhaps we'll know at 4am. 6am for close, and next week if its a handful of votes.

    It's quite possible that - as with the General Election - the first few results could give the game away. Certainly if Remain are indeed at the upper range of some of the latest polls, that should be the case. On the other hand if the early results are close it could be a long night...
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    timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    kle4 said:

    Wish I could have gotten on to some of those Leave odds earlier.

    You can still get on at 5/1
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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    My spy in rural Cumbria (very experienced at these things) describes the turnout as very high.

    Cumbria is in the top ten most eurosceptic council districts according to the Yougov interactive in yesterdays Mail
    Cumbria is not a council district counting area in this election .
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,291
    edited June 2016

    There won't alas for remain be any extra boxes of completed ballots appearing. GCHQs basement has flooded :D

    http://order-order.com/2016/06/23/referendum-day-cchq-leak/

    It's OK they have got a load filled in and waiting to be picked up from finchley road! ;-)
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    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,052
    Jonathan said:

    Anecdote alert.

    My London commute was tricky tonight, both tube and train impacted. Some people might struggle to get home. Left early to ensure 10pm was not at risk.

    Internal chat forum at work totally Remain. Also lots of Remain stickers worn around Kings Cross.

    I presume it will be outer London that's more affected. Where it will be much tighter - although maybe commuters will be more likely to remain.
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    PlatoSaid said:

    John_M said:

    RobD said:

    Mr. Eagles, still worried Leave will win?

    I'm always worried on election day.

    I'm taking a break from politics for a few hours, and focus on other things
    Preparing for the grueling night shift. I have my red bull ready, although it sounds as though it's going to be four hours of talking heads.
    I've reached that stage in life where I'll be awake periodically during the night whether I want to or not. I generally wake for reals around 4am at the latest. At least I'll have something to read :).
    I'm tempted to take a nap for a hour or so before 10pm. I've been up since 0545 and just had a swig of Red Bull. It's so warm and humid here - it's soul sapping.
    Napped all afternoon, now about to go to the pub for a few and then a curry. Back in time to start shouting at the telly. Probably fall asleep mid-way through the action. Unlike when I was young in '97 and lasted the whole night.
    I wasn't going to stay up for the GE last year, but I found I just could not sleep so I came on here as I listened to the results come in. PB was brilliant that night, especially (ahem) when some of the surprises occurred. (cough)Balls(cough)

    I'm planning to stay up all night tonight as the little 'un is in nursery tomorrow, but I probably won't make it. Also, I doubt it's going to be quite as interesting, even if it may be more important.
    We could always talk about engineering ....
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,408
    kle4 said:

    Wish I could have gotten on to some of those Leave odds earlier.

    If you really think Leave is still in this, you can't argue with the current odds of between 5/1 and 6/1, surely?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,978
    timmo said:

    kle4 said:

    Wish I could have gotten on to some of those Leave odds earlier.

    You can still get on at 5/1
    In progress as we speak
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    @TSE I'm not allowed to watch the final episode of the Good Wife tonight. I've been told that I've got to wait until my other half is back in the country and we can watch it together.

    If anyone intends revealing any spoilers tomorrow, I shall wreak vengeance. You have been warned.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,978
    edited June 2016
    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    Wish I could have gotten on to some of those Leave odds earlier.

    If you really think Leave is still in this, you can't argue with the current odds of between 5/1 and 6/1, surely?
    No, but I heard they were even better. I'm getting on now.
  • Options
    LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941
    nunu said:

    OUT said:

    Iqbal_M said:

    Just back from voting from Dundee at about 5.20 pm. The people there said turnout is what it usually is.

    Same here. Saw my first leafleters today. 2 elderly ladies for remain.
    They were in a street where English is relegated to 3rd place as a language behind
    Junkie and Polish.
    Low turnout in Scotland. Excellent.
    I'm getting a picture of 50% Glasgow, 60% rest of Scotland from what I see on twitter.
  • Options
    TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,662
    Monkeys said:

    Voted, Edinburgh, 33% turnout maybe? Nothing amazing happening here.

    A french guy came in after me and was shocked to learn he couldn't vote.

    Just done my democratic duty. Very high turnout here on the glorious sunshine Lancashire coast, certainly more voters crossed off the register than at the same time last year. And traffic gridlock around the polling station, which I've never seen before. Don't ask me what I think it means. This is a classic shy Tory area, politics is never discussed and zero posters so I've no idea how they're voting.
  • Options
    Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    edited June 2016
    Latest Travel News:

    Much as I want Leave to win I hope the win is not so tiny that this is what decides it:

    Severe Delays on the Metropolitan, Hammersmith and City, District Edgware Rd & Wimbledon), Circle and Bakerloo lines.


    Southern services between London Victoria and Brighton are suspended for the rest of today
    Services to Portsmouth/Southampton and Bognor Regis will be running but will be disrupted and delays are likely.
    Services to Eastbourne/Ore and Littlehampton will be running but will be disrupted and delays are likely.
    Some stopping services to Horsham will be running however you may need to use alternative services.
    Services will not be running to Reigate, customers will need to travel to Redhill and use Great Western Railway services, or travel to Dorking and change there for Great Western Railway services.
    Most services between London Victoria and Sutton and Epsom are suspended however some trains will run via Mitcham Junction.
    Services between London Victoria and Caterham may be suspended
    Some trains will be terminating and starting from East Croydon.
    London Victoria to London Bridge services are planned to run.
    Gatwick Express services are being reintroduced. When this reduced service is running trains will stop additionally at Clapham Junction and East Croydon.

    Due to heavy flooding of the railway at Manor Park all lines were blocked. Further flooding at Seven Kings is causing further disruption to services between London Liverpool Street and Romford. Abellio Greater Anglia services between London Liverpool Street, Shenfield, Southend Victoria, Southminster, Braintree, Colchester, Manningtree, Ipswich and Norwich are being disrupted. TfL Rail are running a reduced service between London Liverpool Street and Shenfield.

    Areduced service will run between London and Dartford via Woolwich / Bexleyheath / Sidcup
    A reduced service will run between Dartford and Gravesend
    Some trains between London Charing Cross and Gillingham may be cancelled or revised
    A reduced service will run between London and Orpington via Grove Park
    Trains on the Hayes Line may start / terminate at Elmers End, Clock House or New Beckenham
    Trains between London Victoria and Orpington will be diverted to run to and from London Blackfriars
    Mainline services will run, but alterations and cancellations can be expected.


    Trains are not able to run on all or part of the following routes:
    London Waterloo to/from Woking/Guildford via Esher
    London Waterloo to/from Hampton Court
    London Waterloo to/from Chessington
    London Waterloo to/from Woking stopping service
    London Waterloo to/from Guildford stopping service
    London Waterloo to/ from Portsmouth via Eastleigh
    London Waterloo to/from Salisbury and Exeter will terminate and start at Basingstoke. You will need to use an alternative train between Basingstoke and London Waterloo.

    Train services will not run between Shepperton and Fulwell all day today.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,291
    edited June 2016
    Monkeys said:

    Voted, Edinburgh, 33% turnout maybe? Nothing amazing happening here.

    A french guy came in after me and was shocked to learn he couldn't vote.

    EDIT: Voted half an hour ago. 33% is me being generous.


    I had a similar experience with an enraged foreign lady & she couldn't understand it because she had been sent loads of the campaign junk.
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    BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    Interesting article.

    I wonder if the stock markets and money markets are looking at Betfair, assuming they know what they are talking about and so bet the pound etc up.

    Then the betting markets looks at the money markets and see they have gone up, assume some private polling and bet accordingly...

    Still Mike might also be right as well.

    Turnout looks to be high.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,989
    That's a lot of train disruption :o
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    DanSmith said:

    nunu said:

    OUT said:

    Iqbal_M said:

    Just back from voting from Dundee at about 5.20 pm. The people there said turnout is what it usually is.

    Same here. Saw my first leafleters today. 2 elderly ladies for remain.
    They were in a street where English is relegated to 3rd place as a language behind
    Junkie and Polish.
    Low turnout in Scotland. Excellent.
    Seeing reports that turnout in Catholic areas of NI is low.
    Get in!
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    nunu said:

    Six to one, six to one, six to one....

    What does that mean?
    Thats the odds I got on Leave at lunchtime :)
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    TonyTony Posts: 159
    Latimer road London, same turnout as mayoral election so far.
    32% by 1pm.
    Make of that what you will, large BME population I think.
    Not my area, asked on the way to play footie :)
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,202
    RobD said:

    That's a lot of train disruption :o

    SWT was a complete shower today. Glad I voted early, but home now.
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    LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941
    edited June 2016
    malcolmg said:


    I don't mind, for me I want a fairer society and not an elite few deciding everything and pocketing all the cash. On almost every indicator the UK is bottom of the heap, an unhappy , obese , ill divided dump.
    When these robbers are taking 150 times average wage and wrecking the country something is far wrong.

    It always boggles me how people throw the "high tax, high spend" remark at the Scandinavian countries like its an insult and we are so lucky not to be them.

    But it seems to me that there is very little appetite to change their systems and not only do they appear to work well economically and socially but the people are genuinely happy and like how their systems work.

    If anything, they are about to move even further from proper capitalism with the Finnish introduction of Citizens Income. That may be a real game changer if they get it to function as well as some expect it to do.
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    Latest Travel News:

    Much as I want Leave to win I hope the win is not so tiny that this is what decides it:

    Severe Delays on the Metropolitan, Hammersmith and City, District Edgware Rd & Wimbledon), Circle and Bakerloo lines.

    ....

    Train services will not run between Shepperton and Fulwell all day today.

    Oh my God, you've just triggered me. It's brought back all the memories of my commute to London that I'd suppressed. I thought this was a safe space *sobs*.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062
    theakes said:

    If 30 million vote and Remain are ahead by 8 - 10%, I say if, and their voters turn out, then they win by what 2.5 to 3 milllion, and that assumes all the Leave voters turn out. It is going to be difficult for Leave even with rains in the South East, even there despite the weather could be that the middle classes,the AB's with their transport will turn up to vote rather than those without.

    if your mother had wheels she would be a wheelbarrow as well.
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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Very high turnout at my local polling station. The road is completely blocked up with cars. Never seen it this busy before.
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    scoopscoop Posts: 64
    Scotland's chief returning officer Mary Pitkeithley just interviewed on BBC estimates turnout at 70-80% #EUref
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,127
    edited June 2016

    Latest Travel News:

    Much as I want Leave to win I hope the win is not so tiny that this is what decides it:

    Severe Delays on the Metropolitan, Hammersmith and City, District Edgware Rd & Wimbledon), Circle and Bakerloo lines.


    Southern services between London Victoria and Brighton are suspended for the rest of today
    Services to Portsmouth/Southampton and Bognor Regis will be running but will be disrupted and delays are likely.
    Services to Eastbourne/Ore and Littlehampton will be running but will be disrupted and delays are likely.
    Some stopping services to Horsham will be running however you may need to use alternative services.
    Services will not be running to Reigate, customers will need to travel to Redhill and use Great Western Railway services, or travel to Dorking and change there for Great Western Railway services.
    Most services between London Victoria and Sutton and Epsom are suspended however some trains will run via Mitcham Junction.
    Services between London Victoria and Caterham may be suspended
    Some trains will be terminating and starting from East Croydon.
    London Victoria to London Bridge services are planned to run.
    Gatwick Express services are being reintroduced. When this reduced service is running trains will stop additionally at Clapham Junction and East Croydon.

    Due to heavy flooding of the railway at Manor Park all lines were blocked. Further flooding at Seven Kings is causing further disruption to services between London Liverpool Street and Romford. Abellio Greater Anglia services between London Liverpool Street, Shenfield, Southend Victoria, Southminster, Braintree, Colchester, Manningtree, Ipswich and Norwich are being disrupted. TfL Rail are running a reduced service between London Liverpool Street and Shenfield.

    Areduced service will run between London and Dartford via Woolwich / Bexleyheath / Sidcup
    A reduced service will run between Dartford and Gravesend
    Some trains between London Charing Cross and Gillingham may be cancelled or revised
    A reduced service will run between London and Orpington via Grove Park
    Trains on the Hayes Line may start / terminate at Elmers End, Clock House or New Beckenham
    Trains between London Victoria and Orpington will be diverted to run to and from London Blackfriars

    The Polls are still open for over 3 hours, I doubt any of these delays will actually stop anyone voting and if there is a chance Cameron will just extend the closing times for an hour!
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    RealBritainRealBritain Posts: 255
    MP_SE said:

    Very high turnout at my local polling station. The road is completely blocked up with cars. Never seen it this busy before.

    Which region or area ?
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    timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    MP_SE said:

    Very high turnout at my local polling station. The road is completely blocked up with cars. Never seen it this busy before.

    Where is that?
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    I think we can already conclude that the vote has been got out. That's a great thing, irrespective of the result.
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    RealBritainRealBritain Posts: 255
    snap !
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    LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941
    Tony said:

    Latimer road London, same turnout as mayoral election so far.
    32% by 1pm.
    Make of that what you will, large BME population I think.
    Not my area, asked on the way to play footie :)

    If BME population do not come out in large numbers for Remain, I do not see how Remain can possibly win.
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    NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    theakes said:

    If 30 million vote and Remain are ahead by 8 - 10%, I say if, and their voters turn out, then they win by what 2.5 to 3 milllion, and that assumes all the Leave voters turn out. It is going to be difficult for Leave even with rains in the South East, even there despite the weather could be that the middle classes,the AB's with their transport will turn up to vote rather than those without.

    Wishful thinking. My neighbour a Leaver reported despite torrential rain and thunder overhead in mid Kent the polling station was busy plus full of white van man and wwc types. Not sure this is quite over for Leave yet.
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    TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,662
    John_M said:

    I think we can already conclude that the vote has been got out. That's a great thing, irrespective of the result.

    Does it mean that 'nasty, ineffective' campaigns galvanize voters? If so, we get the politics we deserve.
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    Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,176
    As a Lancastrian, I have always had a good laugh at southerners (particularly Londoners) failing to cope with a cm of snowfall.

    Now it seems they can't cope with a bit of rain either....

    Joking aside, it could have an impact what with London being a Remain hotbed. I'm a bit concerned!
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    LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941
    scoop said:

    Scotland's chief returning officer Mary Pitkeithley just interviewed on BBC estimates turnout at 70-80% #EUref

    Absolutely no chance (and the statement is at least two hours old).
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @ShippersUnbound: Some council estates in Leicestershire had hit usual general election turnout by lunchtime apparently. Brexiteers gain heart.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,986
    TudorRose said:

    John_M said:

    I think we can already conclude that the vote has been got out. That's a great thing, irrespective of the result.

    Does it mean that 'nasty, ineffective' campaigns galvanize voters? If so, we get the politics we deserve.
    For me the issue was too important NOT to vote on irrespective of the campaign.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,202
    Lowlander said:

    malcolmg said:


    I don't mind, for me I want a fairer society and not an elite few deciding everything and pocketing all the cash. On almost every indicator the UK is bottom of the heap, an unhappy , obese , ill divided dump.
    When these robbers are taking 150 times average wage and wrecking the country something is far wrong.

    It always boggles me how people throw the "high tax, high spend" remark at the Scandinavian countries like its an insult and we are so lucky not to be them.

    But it seems to me that there is very little appetite to change their systems and not only do they appear to work well economically and socially but the people are genuinely happy and like how their systems work.

    If anything, they are about to move even further from proper capitalism with the Finnish introduction of Citizens Income. That may be a real game changer if they get it to function as well as some expect it to do.
    I think it comes down to a case of - "how much do you trust your politicians to spend it wisely?" I can understand why there's a reluctance to let our ones loose with any more of our money.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    From the Reuters article posted earlier, quoting the Electoral Commission:

    CAN THE COUNT AND VOTE BE CHALLENGED?

    This is unlikely. The electoral commission says the rules do not provide for a national recount under any circumstances. Requests for local recounts can be made at the local level, to be decided by the counting officer.

    "We expect local recounts to be granted if a specific issue has been identified with the process in that counting area, rather than simply when the local totals are close," the commission says.

    The only way to challenge the national referendum result is by judicial review, which must be requested within six weeks of the certification of the result.
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,319
    Anecdotage- have been to half a dozen polling stations so far and turnout is well above GE levels. In not so well to do places. Just witnessed two self confessed non voters turning out for leave (asking how to vote as never have done so)
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    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    As a Lancastrian, I have always had a good laugh at southerners (particularly Londoners) failing to cope with a cm of snowfall.

    Now it seems they can't cope with a bit of rain either....

    Joking aside, it could have an impact what with London being a Remain hotbed. I'm a bit concerned!

    David Cameron will announce at 10.00am tomorrow that due to the disruption in London, the voting for the area will be held again in 4 weeks time.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,904
    HYUFD said:

    Latest Travel News:

    Much as I want Leave to win I hope the win is not so tiny that this is what decides it:

    Severe Delays on the Metropolitan, Hammersmith and City, District Edgware Rd & Wimbledon), Circle and Bakerloo lines.


    Southern services between London Victoria and Brighton are suspended for the rest of today
    Services to Portsmouth/Southampton and Bognor Regis will be running but will be disrupted and delays are likely.
    Services to Eastbourne/Ore and Littlehampton will be running but will be disrupted and delays are likely.
    Some stopping services to Horsham will be running however you may need to use alternative services.
    Services will not be running to Reigate, customers will need to travel to Redhill and use Great Western Railway services, or travel to Dorking and change there for Great Western Railway services.
    Most services between London Victoria and Sutton and Epsom are suspended however some trains will run via Mitcham Junction.
    Services between London Victoria and Caterham may be suspended
    Some trains will be terminating and starting from East Croydon.
    London Victoria to London Bridge services are planned to run.
    Gatwick Express services are being reintroduced. When this reduced service is running trains will stop additionally at Clapham Junction and East Croydon.

    Due to heavy flooding of the railway at Manor Park all lines were blocked. Further flooding at Seven Kings is causing further disruption to services between London Liverpool Street and Romford. Abellio Greater Anglia services between London Liverpool Street, Shenfield, Southend Victoria, Southminster, Braintree, Colchester, Manningtree, Ipswich and Norwich are being disrupted. TfL Rail are running a reduced service between London Liverpool Street and Shenfield.

    Areduced service will run between London and Dartford via Woolwich / Bexleyheath / Sidcup
    A reduced service will run between Dartford and Gravesend
    Some trains between London Charing Cross and Gillingham may be cancelled or revised
    A reduced service will run between London and Orpington via Grove Park
    Trains on the Hayes Line may start / terminate at Elmers End, Clock House or New Beckenham
    Trains between London Victoria and Orpington will be diverted to run to and from London Blackfriars

    The Polls are still open for over 3 hours, I doubt any of these delays will actually stop anyone voting and if there is a chance Cameron will just extend the closing times for an hour!
    I would not be so sure. Had a 4hr commute (up from 1h30) earlier in the week. Today's conditions are worse.

    If the polls can stay open later, they should.
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    timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    Lowlander said:

    scoop said:

    Scotland's chief returning officer Mary Pitkeithley just interviewed on BBC estimates turnout at 70-80% #EUref

    Absolutely no chance (and the statement is at least two hours old).
    Conspiracy theorists would say the turnout has already been decided..
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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642

    MP_SE said:

    Very high turnout at my local polling station. The road is completely blocked up with cars. Never seen it this busy before.

    Which region or area ?
    East Surrey
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Anecdotes - take em or leave them.

    My son aged 25, never voted for anything in his life, voted today for the first time (leave)

    A poll of his friend group on line showing those who voted favours leave by a huge amount.

    Person at work who was sure he was voting out until today wavered several times before deciding in end to vote leave.

    His wife who was certain for in has also now decided for out.

    A local secondary school held a mock election, leave won. That I am surprised by - and of course I know they can't vote for real.

    I also had lunch with someone yesterday who didn't have a clue on the issues involved, but on balance was probably going to vote in. My favourite line of his from yesterday "losing democracy is a price worth paying for peace" ....................... errrrr
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,137
    Fenman said:

    Leave supporters may win even if they lose. Across Europe other countries are under pressure to hold their own referenda. We may become the only remaining member of the EU.

    That would be fun. Build it from the ground up.

    And if France want in - "Non!!"
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    TudorRose said:

    John_M said:

    I think we can already conclude that the vote has been got out. That's a great thing, irrespective of the result.

    Does it mean that 'nasty, ineffective' campaigns galvanize voters? If so, we get the politics we deserve.
    I have yet to hear from anybody that they think the campaigns have been anything but poor. People are getting to the polling stations because it's important. In my immediate circle, one person was influenced by the Wembley debate.

    Other than that, it's all just been blah blah blah (this insight bought to you by my sister).
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    CookieCookie Posts: 11,501
    Many of us are reporting busier than usual polling stations - but I suspect the vast majority of us are doing so from fairly middle class areas. Does this high turnout translate to working class areas?
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    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,800

    Interesting article.

    I wonder if the stock markets and money markets are looking at Betfair, assuming they know what they are talking about and so bet the pound etc up.

    Then the betting markets looks at the money markets and see they have gone up, assume some private polling and bet accordingly...

    Still Mike might also be right as well.

    Turnout looks to be high.

    Given there hasn't been several billion pounds worth of turnover on betfair I think you can safely assume that these markets are distinct.

    BF have quite bafflingly failed to capitalise on the biggest opportunity ever presented to them. I can't imagine there has ever been such a squandered opportunity.

    They'll be ok mind you. This will be their biggest ever gain.

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    RealBritainRealBritain Posts: 255
    MP_SE said:

    MP_SE said:

    Very high turnout at my local polling station. The road is completely blocked up with cars. Never seen it this busy before.

    Which region or area ?
    East Surrey
    Hmm - must be Leaveish, no ?
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 11,501

    Anecdotage- have been to half a dozen polling stations so far and turnout is well above GE levels. In not so well to do places. Just witnessed two self confessed non voters turning out for leave (asking how to vote as never have done so)

    Sorry Rochdale, you've answered my questoin before I asked it!
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    TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,662
    Pulpstar said:

    TudorRose said:

    John_M said:

    I think we can already conclude that the vote has been got out. That's a great thing, irrespective of the result.

    Does it mean that 'nasty, ineffective' campaigns galvanize voters? If so, we get the politics we deserve.
    For me the issue was too important NOT to vote on irrespective of the campaign.
    And I think that some people have waited decades to do this.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Norm said:

    theakes said:

    If 30 million vote and Remain are ahead by 8 - 10%, I say if, and their voters turn out, then they win by what 2.5 to 3 milllion, and that assumes all the Leave voters turn out. It is going to be difficult for Leave even with rains in the South East, even there despite the weather could be that the middle classes,the AB's with their transport will turn up to vote rather than those without.

    Wishful thinking. My neighbour a Leaver reported despite torrential rain and thunder overhead in mid Kent the polling station was busy plus full of white van man and wwc types. Not sure this is quite over for Leave yet.
    Your neighbour says things like wwc and white van man?
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,989

    Fenman said:

    Leave supporters may win even if they lose. Across Europe other countries are under pressure to hold their own referenda. We may become the only remaining member of the EU.

    That would be fun. Build it from the ground up.

    And if France want in - "Non!!"
    Maybe with some territorial concessions ;)
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    murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,042
    Weather seems to be clearing up here in London - hopefully people can come back from work in time and vote.
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    SPMLSPML Posts: 17
    Wow from all the evidence here from numerous reports all over the country leave have won.
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    BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    Scott_P said:

    @ShippersUnbound: Some council estates in Leicestershire had hit usual general election turnout by lunchtime apparently. Brexiteers gain heart.

    If that is the case, I think that Conservatives ought to go around those estates and talk to the voters. After all we know Labour really don't give a sh*t what they think.
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    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Lowlander said:

    HYUFD said:

    Lowlander said:

    From my experience in Glasgow, the turnout in Scotland is not going to be high. I voted late afternoon and glancing at the electoral register list, there was barely 1 in 5 of the names crossed out.

    Twitter is confusing with a lot of people reporting personal experience of dead polling places while the Leave email about "high Scottish turnout" and a 9am statement from the Chief Returning Officer keep getting re-tweeted. I tend towards the personal experiences getting reported.

    I think Remain's hopes for a big boost from Scotland will be quite heavily suppressed due to turnout.

    When is the turnout in Glasgow ever high? Even in indyref it had one of the lowest turnouts in Scotland. Outside of the Borders I would guess Glasgow will have one of the highest Brexit votes in Scotland, Edinburgh and Aberdeen will be much more pro Remain, so a low Glasgow turnout is not necessarily terrible news for Remain
    True. But for IndyRef the polling place was much busier and there were far more names crossed off at 8am when I voted than there were at 3pm today. For the GE and Scottish elections, again the polling place was far busier with far more names crossed out (both of those I voted late afternoon).
    Turnout will obviously not match indyref but who votes at 3pm? Most people vote 5pm onwards if they did not vote first thing in the morning and so you would expect a higher turnout by the time you got to the polls in the general and Scottish elections
    Who votes at 3pm?

    Mums picking up their kids from school / collecting them from nursery.
    Yes, and a few OAPs, students and the unemployed and that is it. Most voters vote 7-9am or 5-10pm
    Add in people who've just finished the early shift.
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    FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486

    Anecdotage- have been to half a dozen polling stations so far and turnout is well above GE levels. In not so well to do places. Just witnessed two self confessed non voters turning out for leave (asking how to vote as never have done so)

    Even though more turnout is probably good for Leave, it's nice to see people participating in democracy who normally don't
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,137
    Jonathan said:


    Internal chat forum at work totally Remain.

    You really think Leavers are going to pipe up in those circumstances?

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    timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    We have to ask are people turning out for remain that have never voted before?
    Probably but not in the same numbers as for leave,
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,127
    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Latest Travel News:

    Much as I want Leave to win I hope the win is not so tiny that this is what decides it:

    Severe Delays on the Metropolitan, Hammersmith and City, District Edgware Rd & Wimbledon), Circle and Bakerloo lines.


    Southern services between London Victoria and Brighton are suspended for the rest of today
    Services to Portsmouth/Southampton and Bognor Regis will be running but will be disrupted and delays are likely.
    Services to Eastbourne/Ore and Littlehampton will be running but will be disrupted and delays are likely.
    Due to heavy flooding of the railway at Manor Park all lines were blocked. Further flooding at Seven Kings is causing further disruption to services between London Liverpool Street and Romford. Abellio Greater Anglia services between London Liverpool Street, Shenfield, Southend Victoria, Southminster, Braintree, Colchester, Manningtree, Ipswich and Norwich are being disrupted. TfL Rail are running a reduced service between London Liverpool Street and Shenfield.

    Areduced service will run between London and Dartford via Woolwich / Bexleyheath / Sidcup
    A reduced service will run between Dartford and Gravesend
    Some trains between London Charing Cross and Gillingham may be cancelled or revised
    A reduced service will run between London and Orpington via Grove Park
    Trains on the Hayes Line may start / terminate at Elmers End, Clock House or New Beckenham
    Trains between London Victoria and Orpington will be diverted to run to and from London Blackfriars

    The Polls are still open for over 3 hours, I doubt any of these delays will actually stop anyone voting and if there is a chance Cameron will just extend the closing times for an hour!
    I would not be so sure. Had a 4hr commute (up from 1h30) earlier in the week. Today's conditions are worse.

    If the polls can stay open later, they should.
    If you Leave just after 5pm even with a 4 hour commute you still get back shortly after 9pm and that is not going to affect anyone who lives in Greater London but maybe some in the commuter belt
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,989
    Freggles said:

    Anecdotage- have been to half a dozen polling stations so far and turnout is well above GE levels. In not so well to do places. Just witnessed two self confessed non voters turning out for leave (asking how to vote as never have done so)

    Even though more turnout is probably good for Leave, it's nice to see people participating in democracy who normally don't
    Yeah, an 80% turnout would be great.
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    RobD said:

    That's a lot of train disruption :o

    Waterloo and city now suspended due to fire alert at bank.

    Rest of district line now has severe delays due to signal failures at St James Park & South Kensington caused by Flooding.

    Met ad Picc lines between Rayners Lane & Uxbridge closed by Flooding.

    Severe delays at Farringdon due to signal failure due to Flooding (affecting H&C and Circle with Met line suspended between Baker St and Aldgate)

    Thameslink services delayed due to failure of power supply between Elstree and St Albans

    West London Line closed due to flooding at Clapham Junction

    East London line closed between Surrey Quays and New Cross

    Buses disrupted across London due to severe wet weather Check yr route here https://tfl.gov.uk/bus/status/
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Has this been shared?

    http://order-order.com/2016/06/23/bob-geldof-boat-passenger-votes-leave/

    Join the party people, you know you want too.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,978
    SPML said:

    Wow from all the evidence here from numerous reports all over the country leave have won.

    Well this is a Leave heavy place - but I always felt the numbers favoured Leave
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    timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    SPML said:

    Wow from all the evidence here from numerous reports all over the country leave have won.

    Leave drifting again on Betfair.
    Out to 7 again
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,127
    Norm said:

    theakes said:

    If 30 million vote and Remain are ahead by 8 - 10%, I say if, and their voters turn out, then they win by what 2.5 to 3 milllion, and that assumes all the Leave voters turn out. It is going to be difficult for Leave even with rains in the South East, even there despite the weather could be that the middle classes,the AB's with their transport will turn up to vote rather than those without.

    Wishful thinking. My neighbour a Leaver reported despite torrential rain and thunder overhead in mid Kent the polling station was busy plus full of white van man and wwc types. Not sure this is quite over for Leave yet.
    Pre 5pm of course it will be full of white van men and the wwc as most of them work locally, few commute to London, even accounting for the fact Kent will comfortably vote Leave in all but the wealthier west regardless of what the result is nationally
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024

    As a Lancastrian, I have always had a good laugh at southerners (particularly Londoners) failing to cope with a cm of snowfall.

    Now it seems they can't cope with a bit of rain either....

    Joking aside, it could have an impact what with London being a Remain hotbed. I'm a bit concerned!

    Lol don't worry Londoner's will turnout even if they have to swim. Have to protect their high house prices.
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    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    The Leave price is drifting out. Seems at odds with the turnout reports and the London storms.
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    MonkeysMonkeys Posts: 755
    In Indyref, on the day of voting, there were lots of rumours of massively increased turnout in areas like Muirhouse in Edinburgh. This implied a "Yes," vote but obviously it wasn't enough. If I remember it was 30% turnout by 10am, when GE turnout would be around 25% for the whole day.

    Though, all of this is interesting nevertheless.
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    Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,176
    edited June 2016
    IanB2 said:

    Anecdote: my mother (staunch Conservative, member most of her life, leaning towards Leave but wavering thru the campaign because of Cameron and some of the risks) phoned to say she had voted for Remain. But thinks she is in a reasonably small minority judging from the comments of her neighbours in her semi-sheltered block.

    If there was a scintilla of residual doubt in my mind as I walked into the polling station this morning, it was removed by the sight of the 80-odd year old old dear trudging slowly but purposefully towards me from the opposite direction with a great big smile on her face ready to cast her vote. "She's definitely voting Leave, the racist old cow, before she goes home, quietly satisfied with what she may well have done for the country and the younger generations, and then shortly pops her clogs" I thought - it stiffened my sinews, and made me clear I needed to vote Remain.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,127
    Lowlander said:

    Tony said:

    Latimer road London, same turnout as mayoral election so far.
    32% by 1pm.
    Make of that what you will, large BME population I think.
    Not my area, asked on the way to play footie :)

    If BME population do not come out in large numbers for Remain, I do not see how Remain can possibly win.
    All the BME voters had voted in my office, with one voting straight after and the mayoral election has a higher turnout than most local elections
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,894
    edited June 2016
    I reckon that the (non-voting) WWC is turning out in record numbers. My 52-48 prediction for Leave is looking good IMO.

    I have been completely and utterly wrong before mind you.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,291
    edited June 2016
    Was on a worked related visit to a uni today. Term had finished and the polling station like a ghost town. I am sure lots of students registered at parents address and got.out to vote, but I wonder if it would tactically for remain been better to hold this 2 weeks ago? Would have got a massive guaranteed student turn out, easy to get them herded like sheep to the polls.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062
    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Latest Travel News:

    Much as I want Leave to win I hope the win is not so tiny that this is what decides it:

    Severe Delays on the Metropolitan, Hammersmith and City, District Edgware Rd & Wimbledon), Circle and Bakerloo lines.


    Southern services between London Victoria and Brighton are suspended for the rest of today
    Services to Portsmouth/Southampton and Bognor Regis will be running but will be disrupted and delays are likely.
    Services to Eastbourne/Ore and Littlehampton will be running but will be disrupted and delays are likely.
    Some stopping services to Horsham will be running however you may need to use alternative services.
    Services will not be running to Reigate, customers will need to travel to Redhill and use Great Western Railway services, or travel to Dorking and change there for Great Western Railway services.
    Most services between London Victoria and Sutton and Epsom are suspended however some trains will run via Mitcham Junction.
    Services between London Victoria and Caterham may be suspended
    Some trains will be terminating and starting from East Croydon.
    London Victoria to London Bridge services are planned to run.
    Gatwick Express services are being reintroduced. When this reduced service is running trains will stop additionally at Clapham Junction and East Croydon.

    Due to heavy flooding of the railway at Manor Park all lines were blocked. Further flooding at Seven Kings is causing further disruption to services between London Liverpool Street and Romford. Abellio Greater Anglia services between London Liverpool Street, Shenfield, Southend Victoria, Southminster, Braintree, Colchester, Manningtree, Ipswich and Norwich are being disrupted. TfL Rail are running a reduced service between London Liverpool Street and Shenfield.

    Areduced service will run between London and Dartford via Woolwich / Bexleyheath / Sidcup
    A reduced service will run between Dartford and Gravesend
    Some trains between London Charing Cross and Gillingham may be cancelled or revised
    A reduced service will run between London and Orpington via Grove Park
    Trains on the Hayes Line may start / terminate at Elmers End, Clock House or New Beckenham
    Trains between London Victoria and Orpington will be diverted to run to and from London Blackfriars

    The Polls are still open for over 3 hours, I doubt any of these delays will actually stop anyone voting and if there is a chance Cameron will just extend the closing times for an hour!
    I would not be so sure. Had a 4hr commute (up from 1h30) earlier in the week. Today's conditions are worse.

    If the polls can stay open later, they should.
    Should NOT, just because of a bit of rain, give us a break.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @steve_hawkes: Ladbrokes: Brexit the horse - poised to challenge - looked threatening then ultimately faded to come 6th at Newbury in the 6.10
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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642

    MP_SE said:

    MP_SE said:

    Very high turnout at my local polling station. The road is completely blocked up with cars. Never seen it this busy before.

    Which region or area ?
    East Surrey
    Hmm - must be Leaveish, no ?
    I should have added East Surrey area of the county not the constituency.

    Possibly. The older population will go Leave. It is the younger ones I am not sure about.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,127
    Monkeys said:

    In Indyref, on the day of voting, there were lots of rumours of massively increased turnout in areas like Muirhouse in Edinburgh. This implied a "Yes," vote but obviously it wasn't enough. If I remember it was 30% turnout by 10am, when GE turnout would be around 25% for the whole day.

    Though, all of this is interesting nevertheless.

    Indeed, turnout is always well under 50% until at least 7pm when the rush starts
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    Freggles said:

    Anecdotage- have been to half a dozen polling stations so far and turnout is well above GE levels. In not so well to do places. Just witnessed two self confessed non voters turning out for leave (asking how to vote as never have done so)

    Even though more turnout is probably good for Leave, it's nice to see people participating in democracy who normally don't
    Absolutely! Hope those who have turned out today continue to turn out for other elections. Democracy is good, and the higher the turnout the better it is.
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    timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    Just think of Emily Thornberry tonight if it is the WWC that swing it to leave.
    She might as well throw the towel in and get out of politics
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    Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    edited June 2016
    timmo said:

    Lowlander said:

    scoop said:

    Scotland's chief returning officer Mary Pitkeithley just interviewed on BBC estimates turnout at 70-80% #EUref

    Absolutely no chance (and the statement is at least two hours old).
    Conspiracy theorists would say the turnout has already been decided..
    It had until GCHQs london HQ cellar flooded and spoiled all the extras......

    Note: This is a joke
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062
    nunu said:

    As a Lancastrian, I have always had a good laugh at southerners (particularly Londoners) failing to cope with a cm of snowfall.

    Now it seems they can't cope with a bit of rain either....

    Joking aside, it could have an impact what with London being a Remain hotbed. I'm a bit concerned!

    Lol don't worry Londoner's will turnout even if they have to swim. Have to protect their high house prices.
    Scared to get their shoes wet
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    YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    SPML said:

    Wow from all the evidence here from numerous reports all over the country leave have won.

    What have you read on here that points to a Leave victory ?
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    timmo said:

    Lowlander said:

    scoop said:

    Scotland's chief returning officer Mary Pitkeithley just interviewed on BBC estimates turnout at 70-80% #EUref

    Absolutely no chance (and the statement is at least two hours old).
    Conspiracy theorists would say the turnout has already been decided..
    It had until GCHQs london HQ cellar flooded and spoiled all the extras......

    Note: This is a joke
    CCHQ, not GCHQ. Not quite the same thing :).
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,894
    edited June 2016

    IanB2 said:

    Anecdote: my mother (staunch Conservative, member most of her life, leaning towards Leave but wavering thru the campaign because of Cameron and some of the risks) phoned to say she had voted for Remain. But thinks she is in a reasonably small minority judging from the comments of her neighbours in her semi-sheltered block.

    If there was a scintilla of residual doubt in my mind as I walked into the polling station this morning, it was removed by the sight of the 80-odd year old old dear trudging slowly but purposefully towards me from the opposite direction with a great big smile on her face ready to cast her vote. "She's definitely voting Leave, the racist old cow, before she goes home, quietly satisfied with what she may well have done for the country and the younger generations, and then shortly pops her clogs" I thought
    Charming! :(

This discussion has been closed.