Ladbrokes gave the reason for the betting odds being more in favour of REMAIN is that the average REMAIN bet was over £400 but the average leave bet was under £100.
Rich people are inclined to bet REMAIN and poor people are inclined to bet LEAVE, probably because that is their experience amongst the people they know.
Stakes are going to be higher on a 3s on jolly than a 3-1 shot because of the returns. Nothing to do with the wealth of the punter.
Morris Dancer.You have summed it up "I guess". Nobody knows. Somebody said Warrington is a big Leave area, news to me. Consderable commuter belt in all directions, on the main line, M6, key industrial base for European firms etc, I used to work there. Really no - one knows. I live in the West Midlands and can only report that mothers at my grand daughters school in a less affluent area of the town, are heavily voting to Remain, (according to my daughter), apparently they all chat at the school gate. Me I have no personal idea or knowledge and await the outcome. I voted almost 3 weeks ago Remain, but have a bet on leave at 3-1. I have no idea at all whether I will be calling to collect tomorrow or not. Whatever happens we are in the EEC tomorrow, next week, next month, next year, even the year after, maybe even at the 2020 election. If Leave win, events usually take over and will we ever Leave, it has to be a big question. We may well look back in 2 years time and wonder what on earth was that all about!!!!!!
I don't think we've been in the EEC for a few years. It's certainly what Britain voted to join last time, but now we're in the EU (at time of writing!).
Morris Dancer.You have summed it up "I guess". Nobody knows. Somebody said Warrington is a big Leave area, news to me. Consderable commuter belt in all directions, on the main line, M6, key industrial base for European firms etc, I used to work there. Really no - one knows. I live in the West Midlands and can only report that mothers at my grand daughters school in a less affluent area of the town, are heavily voting to Remain, (according to my daughter), apparently they all chat at the school gate. Me I have no personal idea or knowledge and await the outcome. I voted almost 3 weeks ago Remain, but have a bet on leave at 3-1. I have no idea at all whether I will be calling to collect tomorrow or not. Whatever happens we are in the EEC tomorrow, next week, next month, next year, even the year after, maybe even at the 2020 election. If Leave win, events usually take over and will we ever Leave, it has to be a big question. We may well look back in 2 years time and wonder what on earth was that all about!!!!!!
If only we were in the EEC tomorrow, I think many would be more relaxed than being in the EU!
How can remain be 84% - 16% - and what happens to bets if leave wins - (I don't bet or really understand it)
Because a narrow lead in the polls translates into a reasonably high probability of having more votes than the other side
The bets on remain are all lost and the people who have backed leave buy us all lots of drinks
Thanks for that - so if leave win do the bookies lose
If they have done their sums right, the larger lost bets on Remain should cover the cost of paying out the winnings to the Leave people (on betfair, since bets are matched, the transfers take place directly between the two sets of punters). Typically however bookmakers tend to do better when the expected happens (favourite wins) and can be caught out if something at longer odds comes in a winner. Whether they would actually be out of pocket with a Leave win, I have no idea. With just two outcomes, I suspect not - it's not exactly the same as a 100/1 horse winning the Grand National, after all...
You are enlightening me - thanks - interesting
To add to that, in a two horse race the bookie doesn't price the two outcomes the inverse of each other. So if leave is 4/1, remain won't be at 1/4, rather it will be at 1/5 or 1/6. This difference is called the overround and is the bookmaker's profit if he has similar liabilities for both outcomes. It also means as a punter that you can't win by betting on both outcomes at the same time.
The strategy followed by most is to watch the variations in price over time, and time your bets accordingly for the best value. So earlier today, Leave was at 7/1 so I bet on it. I didn't bet on Remain today though, I bet on remain last week when it was 4/6 (1/1.5) - so this combination of bets is guaranteed to win on either result.
Just hearing slight suggestions of low turnout in Remain-friendly Edinburgh thus far. Make of it what you will.
I voted at 7.30am but would concur. Nothing like queues. More oldies than anything (good for you, hope it's Leave). Perhaps it got busier later.
I was straight in at 7am, and it was much quieter than a GE, only 2 of us. Normally a few people in there at 7, if its decent weather, which it was.
I wonder what's happening in Glasgow.
Chief returning officer claming 70-80% turnout across Scotland. Would be weird if the Weeg turned out and Edinburgh didn't, but there's nowt so unpredictable as Scottish Politics.
The strategy followed by most is to watch the variations in price over time, and time your bets accordingly for the best value. So earlier today, Leave was at 7/1 so I bet on it. I didn't bet on Remain today though, I bet on remain last week when it was 4/6 (1/1.5) - so this combination of bets is guaranteed to win on either result.
Just voted. With very little enthusiasm, it has to be said.
Very quiet for an inner London polling station at 5 PM. Didn't see any voters coming out and only one coming in as I was leaving.
Raining, but not that heavily. A bigger factor may be that there are major building and roadworks which completely cut off the polling station from mosr of the electors. Most will have to take a highly circuitous and counter-intuitive route to get there, so may give up/not bother. Certainly the least convenient polling station I've ever had to vote in, and three times in barely a year.
Sunil has just texted me he's just voted in Ilford
Well done Sunil, provisional winner of the best trip to the polling station award 2016. Has anyone else gone way out of their way to manage to vote today?
My brother flew back from Germany last night to vote.
Northwest Kent (and presumbly south London at least) is suffering a complete deluge.
It's as dark as night.
Old people have umbrellas but do young people?
We have a young water-soluble gardener, who won't appear if there is a hint of precipitation in the air. Doesn't stop his dad turning up though. Make of that what you will....
From my experience in Glasgow, the turnout in Scotland is not going to be high. I voted late afternoon and glancing at the electoral register list, there was barely 1 in 5 of the names crossed out.
Twitter is confusing with a lot of people reporting personal experience of dead polling places while the Leave email about "high Scottish turnout" and a 9am statement from the Chief Returning Officer keep getting re-tweeted. I tend towards the personal experiences getting reported. Edit - it seems the statement was reported at 5pm not 9am. I am very surprised if this is correct because it doesn't seem to tally with real experiences.
I think Remain's hopes for a big boost from Scotland will be quite heavily suppressed due to turnout.
Just hearing slight suggestions of low turnout in Remain-friendly Edinburgh thus far. Make of it what you will.
I voted at 7.30am but would concur. Nothing like queues. More oldies than anything (good for you, hope it's Leave). Perhaps it got busier later.
Not very busy when I voted but, interestingly, numbers of late twenties/thirty somethings. The demographic that voted Yes in Indyref and presumably will vote Remain this time
Isn't there SOME risk of shy-Leavers in the SNP ranks. Don't want to go against the leadership in public, but know that Leave gives the best chance of another Referendum to get out the UK?
I don't know if they are shy but there are definitely leavers in the SNP. Mostly they will be the older ones who would have voted Tory if they didn't think Scotland should be independent, and for the same reasons their counterparts in other parts of the UK think we should be out. Then there is the Jim Sillars provisional nationalist wing who think the UK getting out of the EU will get Scotland out of the UK quicker. Having said all that, SNP voters are probably more inclined to vote in a particular way because their party told them to than any other voters.
You know me well but you could have been nice and said mature , but no-one but no-one tells me how to vote
Leave will win if Londoners can't get back home to vote. The flooding on the transport network is like some sort of sick joke.
Unfortunate if people cannot vote, but how many could have voted earlier? Not all would needed to have waited, although some would have.
Noone needs the transport network to vote in London. It'll be a short walk.
They do need it if they can't get home from work.
Sorry, I am panicking probably.
Polls open till 10, besides if enough can't get home to the suburbs than Cameron will order them to stay open longer, I think we have already seen he won't fight fair.
But...two at once needed evacuating? What is this - The Thing?
The original story that the The Thing is based on was written in 1938. Way ahead of its time.
"Who goes there"
Funnily enough the author is probably little known for his writing but as editor of the great magazines of the Golden Age of Sci-Fi is undoubtedly the most influential man in the history of the genre. One of my literary heroes.
From my experience in Glasgow, the turnout in Scotland is not going to be high. I voted late afternoon and glancing at the electoral register list, there was barely 1 in 5 of the names crossed out.
Twitter is confusing with a lot of people reporting personal experience of dead polling places while the Leave email about "high Scottish turnout" and a 9am statement from the Chief Returning Officer keep getting re-tweeted. I tend towards the personal experiences getting reported.
I think Remain's hopes for a big boost from Scotland will be quite heavily suppressed due to turnout.
When is the turnout in Glasgow ever high? Even in indyref it had one of the lowest turnouts in Scotland. Outside of the Borders I would guess Glasgow will have one of the highest Brexit votes in Scotland, Edinburgh and Aberdeen will be much more pro Remain, so a low Glasgow turnout is not necessarily terrible news for Remain
Northwest Kent (and presumbly south London at least) is suffering a complete deluge.
It's as dark as night.
There was a property owner on Sky in Essex under water and at one time up the knee. If this is happening over leave's strongest area will that cause a problem for leave or remain
Rest assured the leavers will wade through the Floodwater to vote.
But...two at once needed evacuating? What is this - The Thing?
The original story that the The Thing is based on was written in 1938. Way ahead of its time.
"Who goes there"
Funnily enough the author is probably little known for his writing but as editor of the great magazines of the Golden Age of Sci-Fi is undoubtedly the most influential man in the history of the genre. One of my literary heroes.
I remember discovering John Campbell based on all the wonderful things that Isaac Asimov wrote about him in 'The Early Asimov'. He was, as you say, a giant figure.
Will we see polling stations opened for longer in flooded parts of London?
Things are rarely so bad in London that people (who finish work late afternoon/early evening) cant get home by 10pm. The risk, I guess, is that after a miserable journey they don't feel like voting.
Any sign of (financial) market moves inspired by private exit polls?
I'm almost 100% sure that there is no predictive power in financial markets now besides the obvious - big companies will be big tomorrow etc.
If I was still in that industry I'd be thinking about when to buy GBP in the event of Leave. It turns out perhaps that everyone is thinking the same. So simply buy now, but that's too obvious so sell now.. You get the idea. The truth is out there, but it doesn't really pay just at the moment.
For those who like conspiracies: Seeing as there is public transport chaos across London it should be worth pointing out that the RMT were strong supporters of Brexit
If lots of people cannot get home to have their meal and vote due to the whims of nature then that is surely a reason for a re - run!! Definately woth a Court case.
Returned from work to find a couple of young VoteLeavers pushing leaflets through letterboxes - definitely working harder than Remain, which I'm still surprised about, given the effort the local LDs put in to win the seat in 2015.
Remain were again outside the tubes this morning and again nobody from Leave, both sides just focusing on their core vote at this stage
From my experience in Glasgow, the turnout in Scotland is not going to be high. I voted late afternoon and glancing at the electoral register list, there was barely 1 in 5 of the names crossed out.
Twitter is confusing with a lot of people reporting personal experience of dead polling places while the Leave email about "high Scottish turnout" and a 9am statement from the Chief Returning Officer keep getting re-tweeted. I tend towards the personal experiences getting reported.
I think Remain's hopes for a big boost from Scotland will be quite heavily suppressed due to turnout.
When is the turnout in Glasgow ever high? Even in indyref it had one of the lowest turnouts in Scotland. Outside of the Borders I would guess Glasgow will have one of the highest Brexit votes in Scotland, Edinburgh and Aberdeen will be much more pro Remain, so a low Glasgow turnout is not necessarily terrible news for Remain
True. But for IndyRef the polling place was much busier and there were far more names crossed off at 8am when I voted than there were at 3pm today. For the GE and Scottish elections, again the polling place was far busier with far more names crossed out (both of those I voted late afternoon).
The strategy followed by most is to watch the variations in price over time, and time your bets accordingly for the best value. So earlier today, Leave was at 7/1 so I bet on it. I didn't bet on Remain today though, I bet on remain last week when it was 4/6 (1/1.5) - so this combination of bets is guaranteed to win on either result.
And that is what is known as a 'crafty aftertime'
It's known as a green book! I'm about £50 up if Remain wins and £750 if Leave does. Couldn't resist that 8.2 on Betfair for leave earlier today.
"In an article for the Guardian Emily said "That certainly does not mean that the people coming can't - or shouldn't - vote on 23 June.
"The day that the referendum date was announced, we began our campaign to encourage everyone coming to the festival to register for either a postal vote (which is what I've done) or a proxy vote (where you nominate someone to do it for you)."
She says they're e-mailing every ticket-holder details on how to vote."
Returned from work to find a couple of young VoteLeavers pushing leaflets through letterboxes - definitely working harder than Remain, which I'm still surprised about, given the effort the local LDs put in to win the seat in 2015.
Remain were again outside the tubes this morning and again nobody from Leave, both sides just focusing on their core vote at this stage
But my point was this is a LD voting area, is that not worth effort locally for remain?
Hmm I still think that Leave will win, however if the polls had been more accurate and predicted a leave win then remain may have edged it IMO (as more apathetic remains would have turned out). Should be a very interesting few months after the referendum as we analyse how and why the polls and betting markets were so far off.
Turnout is looking high whenever I've had a chance to see.
No as if Leave led most of the final polls even more undecided would have to switch to Remain for them to win than if Remain led
I voted this morning. My better half is off to vote shortly. We are cancelling each other out. Neither can convince the other. My argument is democracy, hers economics. Classic English v Scottish stereotype.
Returned from work to find a couple of young VoteLeavers pushing leaflets through letterboxes - definitely working harder than Remain, which I'm still surprised about, given the effort the local LDs put in to win the seat in 2015.
Remain were again outside the tubes this morning and again nobody from Leave, both sides just focusing on their core vote at this stage
But my point was this is a LD voting area, is that not worth effort locally for remain?
Hmm I still think that Leave will win, however if the polls had been more accurate and predicted a leave win then remain may have edged it IMO (as more apathetic remains would have turned out). Should be a very interesting few months after the referendum as we analyse how and why the polls and betting markets were so far off.
Turnout is looking high whenever I've had a chance to see.
No as if Leave led most of the final polls even more undecided would have to switch to Remain for them to win than if Remain led
Returned from work to find a couple of young VoteLeavers pushing leaflets through letterboxes - definitely working harder than Remain, which I'm still surprised about, given the effort the local LDs put in to win the seat in 2015.
Remain were again outside the tubes this morning and again nobody from Leave, both sides just focusing on their core vote at this stage
But my point was this is a LD voting area, is that not worth effort locally for remain?
Returned from work to find a couple of young VoteLeavers pushing leaflets through letterboxes - definitely working harder than Remain, which I'm still surprised about, given the effort the local LDs put in to win the seat in 2015.
Remain were again outside the tubes this morning and again nobody from Leave, both sides just focusing on their core vote at this stage
But my point was this is a LD voting area, is that not worth effort locally for remain?
In the provinces, City of London and Westminster is a safe Tory seat but in London. Whether a seat is in a big city or a market town is a much better indication of referendum voting than which party holds it
Comments
Sorry, I am panicking probably.
Very relaxed about my Leave betting position currently. It'll be close but they'll get over the line.
The strategy followed by most is to watch the variations in price over time, and time your bets accordingly for the best value. So earlier today, Leave was at 7/1 so I bet on it. I didn't bet on Remain today though, I bet on remain last week when it was 4/6 (1/1.5) - so this combination of bets is guaranteed to win on either result.
That area is but the whole of the city has been hit by a storm.
From what I hear, London is really catching it pluvial-wise - hope no one is hurt and all there is is inconvenience.
(I gather the thunderstorms are scheduled to end at 10.00pm - TIC)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C12aycIepqA
Very quiet for an inner London polling station at 5 PM. Didn't see any voters coming out and only one coming in as I was leaving.
Raining, but not that heavily. A bigger factor may be that there are major building and roadworks which completely cut off the polling station from mosr of the electors. Most will have to take a highly circuitous and counter-intuitive route to get there, so may give up/not bother. Certainly the least convenient polling station I've ever had to vote in, and three times in barely a year.
Tempted to take half of that and stick it on Leave victory though, the odds seem tempting right now giving what we are hearing.
Twitter is confusing with a lot of people reporting personal experience of dead polling places while the Leave email about "high Scottish turnout" and a
9amstatement from the Chief Returning Officer keep getting re-tweeted. I tend towards the personal experiences getting reported. Edit - it seems the statement was reported at 5pm not 9am. I am very surprised if this is correct because it doesn't seem to tally with real experiences.I think Remain's hopes for a big boost from Scotland will be quite heavily suppressed due to turnout.
https://twitter.com/libby_brooks/status/746015545003282432
Search tw@tter for turnout anecdote !
This is tense. I've never cared more about the result of an election.
Funnily enough the author is probably little known for his writing but as editor of the great magazines of the Golden Age of Sci-Fi is undoubtedly the most influential man in the history of the genre. One of my literary heroes.
Women live longer and are thus older on average. Older people are more pro LEAVE.
Will these factors cancel out?
https://twitter.com/sunny_hundal/status/746024367801376768
Maybe everyone voted early cause of the rain
My 6-1 Leave betting slip is ok though
As I went up the footbridge at the station after getting off the train a kid said to his dad "What will happen if World War 3 starts tomorrow
Has Jon Snow declared yet?
If I was still in that industry I'd be thinking about when to buy GBP in the event of Leave. It turns out perhaps that everyone is thinking the same. So simply buy now, but that's too obvious so sell now.. You get the idea. The truth is out there, but it doesn't really pay just at the moment.
Seeing as there is public transport chaos across London it should be worth pointing out that the RMT were strong supporters of Brexit
George Osborne will up your taxes and slash your pension.
It's just all good news with Remain
Arf
"In an article for the Guardian Emily said "That certainly does not mean that the people coming can't - or shouldn't - vote on 23 June.
"The day that the referendum date was announced, we began our campaign to encourage everyone coming to the festival to register for either a postal vote (which is what I've done) or a proxy vote (where you nominate someone to do it for you)."
She says they're e-mailing every ticket-holder details on how to vote."
Suppose he was a Kipper?
This was DC Metro yesterday:
http://gizmodo.com/watch-this-apocalyptic-timelapse-of-the-dc-metro-flood-1782453501
Our 2 WWC wards passed their 2015 GE turnout level at 430pm today. People are still streaming in. Lots of first time voters.
No idea if this is typical across the country but here the WWC are turning out.
Must eat and then back out.
Heads down, shoulders to the wheel get our vote out and we can do this.
Chin chin.
Edited extra bit: Mr. Child, cheers for that info.
I'm taking a break from politics for a few hours, and focus on other things
Civic and Patriotic duty complete
Turnout described as "good". 10 pages of voter list compared to 3 for a normal election