politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why the betting has often seemed so out of line with the po
Comments
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Not in Islington South & Finsbury she needn't. She is very representative of her constituency.timmo said:Just think of Emily Thornberry tonight if it is the WWC that swing it to leave.
She might as well throw the towel in and get out of politics0 -
Evening all
An unusual day for me as the overnight storm disruption meant I had to work from home. The work still had to be done and I went out to vote at lunchtime over the road to the local Church Hall. Very quiet - a former Labour Councillor for the Ward was asking the Tamil residents to vote REMAIN but the polling station itself was moribund.
I voted LEAVE - no wibbles, wobbles or hesitation.
On topic, I do wonder if the weight of money tells a tale - at the racecourse, the average rails bookie isn't going to cut a horse from 11/4 to 5/2 for my £20 or even for a few other ponies but if he sees the exchange price moving, he moves.
It's about the volume of money, not the number of people betting.
Indeed, there are punters who do nothing other than bet on horses being backed - yes, it works sometimes but racing has too many variables to make it successful. In non-duty environment, betting on short odds (here I mean 1/8, 1/10 and the like) still make sense - more risk than a bank or building society but a much better return.
If all the money in a two-horse race is going one way, the price of the other horse doesn't matter. For the bookie, he has to keep cutting the price of the backed horse to reduce his liabilities but he will happily accommodate punters because there is a "chance" he will cop the lot and only have to pay out on the second horse.
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Does anyone have any late bets which they consider offer value?
Mine would have to be LEAVE to win between 45 - 50% of the vote on offer at 15/8 from Corals.
But Do Your OWN Research!0 -
Do you want to tell them or shall I?John_M said:
CCHQ, not GCHQ. Not quite the same thingPaul_Bedfordshire said:
It had until GCHQs london HQ cellar flooded and spoiled all the extras......timmo said:
Note: This is a joke.0 -
Are you confusing GCHQ and Conservative Campaign HQ?Paul_Bedfordshire said:
It had until GCHQs london HQ cellar flooded and spoiled all the extras......timmo said:
Note: This is a joke0 -
If that does happen, I hope you will spare a moment of thought for poor Richard...timmo said:Just think of Emily Thornberry tonight if it is the WWC that swing it to leave.
She might as well throw the towel in and get out of politics0 -
I'm very relaxed about the result. A leave vote does not necessarily mean that the country will become a basketcase (*), and neither does a remain vote.
We can be a great country inside or outside of the EU.
We can be a failure inside or outside of the EU.
The question comes down to whether it will be easier or harder whilst in. (**)
(*) Or more of, depending on your view.
(**) Fnarr0 -
Rain band in London finally clearing out to the North East. Three hours of voting people. Get on it.0
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If remian wins then one wonders about the ability of this sites contributors to assist in "Political Betting". If you read back the threads over the past month and even this thread an outsider would think Leave are going to win comfortably0
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Evening GIN, assume you have done your patriotic duty.GIN1138 said:
Charming!Bob__Sykes said:
If there was a scintilla of residual doubt in my mind as I walked into the polling station this morning, it was removed by the sight of the 80-odd year old old dear trudging slowly but purposefully towards me from the opposite direction with a great big smile on her face ready to cast her vote. "She's definitely voting Leave, the racist old cow, before she goes home, quietly satisfied with what she may well have done for the country and the younger generations, and then shortly pops her clogs" I thoughtIanB2 said:Anecdote: my mother (staunch Conservative, member most of her life, leaning towards Leave but wavering thru the campaign because of Cameron and some of the risks) phoned to say she had voted for Remain. But thinks she is in a reasonably small minority judging from the comments of her neighbours in her semi-sheltered block.
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No of course not but he's a classic C2 and a fervent leaver because of immigration and the way he feels it will reduce job opportunities for his young boys. I asked him whether it was busy up there to which he replied yes and it was then I asked him about the type of people voting.nunu said:
Your neighbour says things like wwc and white van man?Norm said:
Wishful thinking. My neighbour a Leaver reported despite torrential rain and thunder overhead in mid Kent the polling station was busy plus full of white van man and wwc types. Not sure this is quite over for Leave yet.theakes said:If 30 million vote and Remain are ahead by 8 - 10%, I say if, and their voters turn out, then they win by what 2.5 to 3 milllion, and that assumes all the Leave voters turn out. It is going to be difficult for Leave even with rains in the South East, even there despite the weather could be that the middle classes,the AB's with their transport will turn up to vote rather than those without.
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PB Train Doyens will know this. Why can't a train run through water like this? I thought the bottom bit was purely mechanical.
https://twitter.com/greateranglia/status/745854236001439746/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw0 -
The turnout reports in Scotland are a few isolated anecdotes versus the Chief Returning Officer. Can't blame people for siding with the latter. The turnout reports in NI are that it is good in North Down and Belfast South, and bad in Belfast West. Contra those who analyse by religion, this is probably ok for REMAIN.Jobabob said:The Leave price is drifting out. Seems at odds with the turnout reports and the London storms.
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I am more concerned about a corbyn government!!!! He would make the nonsense from Brussels look like small beer.JosiasJessop said:I'm very relaxed about the result. A leave vote does not necessarily mean that the country will become a basketcase (*), and neither does a remain vote.
We can be a great country inside or outside of the EU.
We can be a failure inside or outside of the EU.
The question comes down to whether it will be easier or harder whilst in. (**)
(*) Or more of, depending on your view.
(**) Fnarr0 -
Evening Macl. Yes, voted LEAVE this morning.malcolmg said:
Evening GIN, assume you have done your patriotic duty.GIN1138 said:
Charming!Bob__Sykes said:
If there was a scintilla of residual doubt in my mind as I walked into the polling station this morning, it was removed by the sight of the 80-odd year old old dear trudging slowly but purposefully towards me from the opposite direction with a great big smile on her face ready to cast her vote. "She's definitely voting Leave, the racist old cow, before she goes home, quietly satisfied with what she may well have done for the country and the younger generations, and then shortly pops her clogs" I thoughtIanB2 said:Anecdote: my mother (staunch Conservative, member most of her life, leaning towards Leave but wavering thru the campaign because of Cameron and some of the risks) phoned to say she had voted for Remain. But thinks she is in a reasonably small minority judging from the comments of her neighbours in her semi-sheltered block.
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Look at the factual reports from Chameleon, Lowlander and Paul_Bedfordshire among others. They all know and seeing first hand how leave are winning this and getting so many previously non voters to vote leave. LEAVE HAVE WON.Chameleon said:I reckon that the (non-voting) WWC is turning out in record numbers. My 52-48 prediction for Leave is looking good IMO.
I have been completely and utterly wrong before mind you.0 -
Wrong kind of water no doubtRobD said:PB Train Doyens will know this. Why can't a train run through water like this? I thought the bottom bit was purely mechanical.
https://twitter.com/greateranglia/status/745854236001439746/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw0 -
One polling station when asked how it compares to a General Election - " we had more through the door by 12 than we had all day last year".0
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Cambs/Lincs border. Weather here has been horribly muggy all day, but very little rain, certainly no disruption. "Over 70%" already with three hours to go, say the ticker-offers. "Very busy", much more than GE. The two of them have been there since 6.30am and will stay to the end. ** applauds dedication ** On the basis of which I offered to return with a cake, but they were well prepared with sandwiches and thermos and the other paraphernalia I most associate with caravaners. Didn't bring my polling card, but no request for ID at all; in fact the two were rather pleased to happily take me on my word, for that is how our system works; and hence I felt an unexpected bonhomie for our entire voting process.0
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Still at odds with the betting movementSPML said:
Look at the factual reports from Chameleon, Lowlander and Paul_Bedfordshire among others. They all know and seeing first hand how leave are winning this and getting so many previously non voters to vote leave. LEAVE HAVE WON.Chameleon said:I reckon that the (non-voting) WWC is turning out in record numbers. My 52-48 prediction for Leave is looking good IMO.
I have been completely and utterly wrong before mind you.0 -
No if you read the threads over the last month you'd think people here generally want Leave to win but expect to be disappointed.currystar said:If remian wins then one wonders about the ability of this sites contributors to assist in "Political Betting". If you read back the threads over the past month and even this thread an outsider would think Leave are going to win comfortably
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WEll done. A poke in the eye for those establishment no-gooders.GIN1138 said:
Evening Macl. Yes, voted LEAVE this morning.malcolmg said:
Evening GIN, assume you have done your patriotic duty.GIN1138 said:
Charming!Bob__Sykes said:
If there was a scintilla of residual doubt in my mind as I walked into the polling station this morning, it was removed by the sight of the 80-odd year old old dear trudging slowly but purposefully towards me from the opposite direction with a great big smile on her face ready to cast her vote. "She's definitely voting Leave, the racist old cow, before she goes home, quietly satisfied with what she may well have done for the country and the younger generations, and then shortly pops her clogs" I thoughtIanB2 said:Anecdote: my mother (staunch Conservative, member most of her life, leaning towards Leave but wavering thru the campaign because of Cameron and some of the risks) phoned to say she had voted for Remain. But thinks she is in a reasonably small minority judging from the comments of her neighbours in her semi-sheltered block.
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First post here....
I am currently based in the UAE, specifically Dubai.
Just had an SMS from my bank to inform me that all sterling transfers into the UK will be unavailable from 8pm tonight until 9am tomorrow morning (UAE time)
I wonder if the banks know something we don't know about the private polling?0 -
Josias - it's been good to see you back in force today. Should you decide to revert to lurking in the main, do please continue to post as and when the mood takes you - your presence adds considerably to the richness of this site.JosiasJessop said:I'm very relaxed about the result. A leave vote does not necessarily mean that the country will become a basketcase (*), and neither does a remain vote.
We can be a great country inside or outside of the EU.
We can be a failure inside or outside of the EU.
The question comes down to whether it will be easier or harder whilst in. (**)
(*) Or more of, depending on your view.
(**) Fnarr0 -
If it was pure water it would be fine but its not so it conducts electricity and shorts out the rails together making the signalling system think there is a train there and putting all the signals to red.RobD said:PB Train Doyens will know this. Why can't a train run through water like this? I thought the bottom bit was purely mechanical.
https://twitter.com/greateranglia/status/745854236001439746/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw
South of the thames it also shorts out the 750v d.c. conductor rails which leak tens of thousands of amps all over the water causing all sorts of interesting things (and them to be switched off in short order)
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Thanks for letting us know. Saves me staying up all night.SPML said:
Look at the factual reports from Chameleon, Lowlander and Paul_Bedfordshire among others. They all know and seeing first hand how leave are winning this and getting so many previously non voters to vote leave. LEAVE HAVE WON.Chameleon said:I reckon that the (non-voting) WWC is turning out in record numbers. My 52-48 prediction for Leave is looking good IMO.
I have been completely and utterly wrong before mind you.0 -
Bet it is a light shower or two, we get real rain up here not your 3 mm stuff.Jonathan said:
It's not just a bit of rain. It's the collapse of majority of the South East commuter network. Suspect you would have felt differently 18 Sep 2014 if this had impacted Glasgow.malcolmg said:
Should NOT, just because of a bit of rain, give us a break.
PS: I have been taxed a fortune to gild London and its wasted by a few showers , what cretins planned that0 -
Probably a precaution rather than prediction?Antdenatale said:
First post here....
I am currently based in the UAE, specifically Dubai.
Just had an SMS from my bank to inform me that all sterling transfers into the UK will be unavailable from 8pm tonight until 9am tomorrow morning (UAE time)
I wonder if the banks know something we don't know about the private polling?0 -
I have never forecast a Leave win, and don't expect one now. I certainly became mildly hopeful last week prior to Jo Cox's tragic death.Philip_Thompson said:
No if you read the threads over the last month you'd think people here generally want Leave to win but expect to be disappointed.currystar said:If remian wins then one wonders about the ability of this sites contributors to assist in "Political Betting". If you read back the threads over the past month and even this thread an outsider would think Leave are going to win comfortably
One of the many good things about this site is that most posters are quite careful to distinguish what they want with what they expect.0 -
I would have thought that was just precautionary to prevent the bank getting had over in the case of an illiquid mktAntdenatale said:
First post here....
I am currently based in the UAE, specifically Dubai.
Just had an SMS from my bank to inform me that all sterling transfers into the UK will be unavailable from 8pm tonight until 9am tomorrow morning (UAE time)
I wonder if the banks know something we don't know about the private polling?0 -
On the contrary, we're all for leave, so it could simply be confirmation bias. Moreover there could still be a lot of people coming home from work to vote (who will lean in).SPML said:
Look at the factual reports from Chameleon, Lowlander and Paul_Bedfordshire among others. They all know and seeing first hand how leave are winning this and getting so many previously non voters to vote leave. LEAVE HAVE WON.Chameleon said:I reckon that the (non-voting) WWC is turning out in record numbers. My 52-48 prediction for Leave is looking good IMO.
I have been completely and utterly wrong before mind you.0 -
What about East and North Belfast, Lisburn and Ballymena?EPG said:
The turnout reports in Scotland are a few isolated anecdotes versus the Chief Returning Officer. Can't blame people for siding with the latter. The turnout reports in NI are that it is good in North Down and Belfast South, and bad in Belfast West. Contra those who analyse by religion, this is probably ok for REMAIN.Jobabob said:The Leave price is drifting out. Seems at odds with the turnout reports and the London storms.
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How does "I reckon" turn into a "factual report"? Be careful betting on this one, kids.SPML said:
Look at the factual reports from Chameleon, Lowlander and Paul_Bedfordshire among others. They all know and seeing first hand how leave are winning this and getting so many previously non voters to vote leave. LEAVE HAVE WON.Chameleon said:I reckon that the (non-voting) WWC is turning out in record numbers. My 52-48 prediction for Leave is looking good IMO.
I have been completely and utterly wrong before mind you.0 -
Precaution. HSBC had notices saying the same on Tuesday night...RobD said:
Probably a precaution rather than prediction?Antdenatale said:
First post here....
I am currently based in the UAE, specifically Dubai.
Just had an SMS from my bank to inform me that all sterling transfers into the UK will be unavailable from 8pm tonight until 9am tomorrow morning (UAE time)
I wonder if the banks know something we don't know about the private polling?0 -
Right, forgot about third rail and signaling!Paul_Bedfordshire said:
If it was pure water it would be fine but its not so it conducts electricity and shorts out the rails together making the signalling system think there is a train there and putting all the signals to red.RobD said:PB Train Doyens will know this. Why can't a train run through water like this? I thought the bottom bit was purely mechanical.
https://twitter.com/greateranglia/status/745854236001439746/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw
South of the thames it also shorts out the 750v d.c. conductor rails which leak tens of thousands of amps all over the water causing all sorts of interesting things (and them to be switched off in short order)0 -
Our nextdoor neighbour looks a bit cross that we've got a Remain card in the window. But I'm guessing he's mainly cross because he and his missus never registered to vote. I think that if the disaffected folk of places like North Birmingham were all on the electoral roll, Leave would win the referendum with ease.0
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Still at the polling station. Quite a few passionate Leavers showing me their pens as they go in.0
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Third rail travel in the snow is very pretty.RobD said:
Right, forgot about third rail and signaling!Paul_Bedfordshire said:
If it was pure water it would be fine but its not so it conducts electricity and shorts out the rails together making the signalling system think there is a train there and putting all the signals to red.RobD said:PB Train Doyens will know this. Why can't a train run through water like this? I thought the bottom bit was purely mechanical.
https://twitter.com/greateranglia/status/745854236001439746/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw
South of the thames it also shorts out the 750v d.c. conductor rails which leak tens of thousands of amps all over the water causing all sorts of interesting things (and them to be switched off in short order)0 -
Does anyone know why Michael Portillo has not taken a more prominent role in the referendum?0
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The Leave excitement and these reports reminds me of Yes at Indyref, before the first results came in.HYUFD said:
Indeed, turnout is always well under 50% until at least 7pm when the rush startsMonkeys said:In Indyref, on the day of voting, there were lots of rumours of massively increased turnout in areas like Muirhouse in Edinburgh. This implied a "Yes," vote but obviously it wasn't enough. If I remember it was 30% turnout by 10am, when GE turnout would be around 25% for the whole day.
Though, all of this is interesting nevertheless.
Even if Leave loses, which is what I expect, they'll come away changed.0 -
First signs of significant Remain voters in the Valleys today. Lots of talk of people saying they will vote Remain.
Looks as though - from my anecdotal evidence here - the Brexiteers were a lot louder than the Remainians. The Remainians waited till polling day to come alive.
I still think Leave will win round here but today there has at least been some obvious Remain activity.
UKIP were very active throughout in Caerphilly. I saw nothing from Labour. Which isn't unusual.0 -
My dad just called me - he says there are reports of a train being hit by lightning (near St Albans?). Presumably there's no danger to life in that case? I assume it's like being in a car.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
If it was pure water it would be fine but its not so it conducts electricity and shorts out the rails together making the signalling system think there is a train there and putting all the signals to red.RobD said:PB Train Doyens will know this. Why can't a train run through water like this? I thought the bottom bit was purely mechanical.
https://twitter.com/greateranglia/status/745854236001439746/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw
South of the thames it also shorts out the 750v d.c. conductor rails which leak tens of thousands of amps all over the water causing all sorts of interesting things (and them to be switched off in short order)0 -
I'm on a similar bet, Remain % 50-55 at 2.62 (13/8 less 5%) on Betfair. You got better odds than I did but I don't have credit with Coral.peter_from_putney said:Does anyone have any late bets which they consider offer value?
Mine would have to be LEAVE to win between 45 - 50% of the vote on offer at 15/8 from Corals.
But Do Your OWN Research!
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East Belfast OK for REMAIN. North Belfast OK for LEAVE. The others neutral.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
What about East and North Belfast, Lisburn and Ballymena?EPG said:
The turnout reports in Scotland are a few isolated anecdotes versus the Chief Returning Officer. Can't blame people for siding with the latter. The turnout reports in NI are that it is good in North Down and Belfast South, and bad in Belfast West. Contra those who analyse by religion, this is probably ok for REMAIN.Jobabob said:The Leave price is drifting out. Seems at odds with the turnout reports and the London storms.
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Well I'm back from Chiddingly in the beautiful Wealden. The ladies on the desk had nearly ticked off all their names. Very high turnout - in their words. Reflected on that thought as I drove past the sign indicating the twinning with Lachappelle in France.0
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- He's retired from frontline politicsMP_SE said:Does anyone know why Michael Portillo has not taken a more prominent role in the referendum?
- None of the careerists in the Leave campaign would want to risk being overshadowed and giving him a platform to return
- He didn't think we should have a referendum at all0 -
If london is so gilded how come they are still struggling with early twentieth century d.c. third rail electrification systems and signalling that pre dates world war 2 while you have nice new signalling and overhead 25kV electrification in Glasgow?malcolmg said:
Bet it is a light shower or two, we get real rain up here not your 3 mm stuff.Jonathan said:
It's not just a bit of rain. It's the collapse of majority of the South East commuter network. Suspect you would have felt differently 18 Sep 2014 if this had impacted Glasgow.malcolmg said:
Should NOT, just because of a bit of rain, give us a break.
PS: I have been taxed a fortune to gild London and its wasted by a few showers , what cretins planned that0 -
On a personal note, nice to see Tabman and Cicero posting today. From the mists of the early days of political betting, they have returned.
Welcome home, gents.0 -
Welcome to PB, and good to see I'm not the only Dubai-based poster on hereAntdenatale said:
First post here....
I am currently based in the UAE, specifically Dubai.
Just had an SMS from my bank to inform me that all sterling transfers into the UK will be unavailable from 8pm tonight until 9am tomorrow morning (UAE time)
I wonder if the banks know something we don't know about the private polling?
The banks are usually closed here on Fridays, I guess they're worried about getting caught with no liquidity or increased spreads from the market makers. My FX broker here are working overnight out of Dubai and London, expecting their busiest 24 hours in history.0 -
My factual reports are on travel disruption not voting.EPG said:
How does "I reckon" turn into a "factual report"? Be careful betting on this one, kids.SPML said:
Look at the factual reports from Chameleon, Lowlander and Paul_Bedfordshire among others. They all know and seeing first hand how leave are winning this and getting so many previously non voters to vote leave. LEAVE HAVE WON.Chameleon said:I reckon that the (non-voting) WWC is turning out in record numbers. My 52-48 prediction for Leave is looking good IMO.
I have been completely and utterly wrong before mind you.
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Ahhh....thanks....it is a UAE bank and I suppose they are very risk adverse, just thought a little strange as I can imagine many transactions taking place as banks here close on a Friday and Saturday.timmo said:
I would have thought that was just precautionary to prevent the bank getting had over in the case of an illiquid mktAntdenatale said:
First post here....
I am currently based in the UAE, specifically Dubai.
Just had an SMS from my bank to inform me that all sterling transfers into the UK will be unavailable from 8pm tonight until 9am tomorrow morning (UAE time)
I wonder if the banks know something we don't know about the private polling?0 -
Probably because he is enjoying his TV career which doubtless also pays more and which he doesn't therefore wish to jeopardise by becoming too political.MP_SE said:Does anyone know why Michael Portillo has not taken a more prominent role in the referendum?
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All been spent on swanky wine barsPaul_Bedfordshire said:
If london is so gilded how come they are still struggling with early twentieth century d.c. third rail electrification systems and signalling that pre dates world war 2 while you have nice new signalling and overhead 25kV electrification in Glasgow?malcolmg said:
Bet it is a light shower or two, we get real rain up here not your 3 mm stuff.Jonathan said:
It's not just a bit of rain. It's the collapse of majority of the South East commuter network. Suspect you would have felt differently 18 Sep 2014 if this had impacted Glasgow.malcolmg said:
Should NOT, just because of a bit of rain, give us a break.
PS: I have been taxed a fortune to gild London and its wasted by a few showers , what cretins planned that
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THe private polls being carried out at polling stations clearly do not cover postal votes.this would not matter if voting patterns for postal were the same.However since most postal votes were sent off when the leave lead peaked this is not the case.Demographicaly leave is likely to veer to leave..thus leave may enter polling day with possibly a lead of a million votes.any comments on the likely proportion of postal votes and which campaign has done best on postal.0
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Still reckon the bet combination I identified earlier on Betfair has value, although the odds aren't nearly as good as earlier. Now I'd recommend something like £5 on Remain > 52.5% @ 1.45 for every £15 on Remain < 56.5% @ 1.31. Together for a stake of £20 these return £6.90 profit (35%) for a Remain score between 52.5%-56.5%, which covers what appears to be the mainline expectation right now, hedges a better than expected Leave result with a loss of 35p (<2% of the stake - so essentially break even) if Remain doesn't reach 52.5%, with the downside being a loss of £12.75 (65% of the stake) if Remain beats 56.5%. Unless you expect a stompingly unexpected Remain walkover I would say this was good value.peter_from_putney said:Does anyone have any late bets which they consider offer value?
Mine would have to be LEAVE to win between 45 - 50% of the vote on offer at 15/8 from Corals.
But Do Your OWN Research!0 -
@RochdalePioneers
'One polling station when asked how it compares to a General Election - " we had more through the door by 12 than we had all day last year".
Very similar experience in my local polling station, at 11.30 it was a struggle to get my ballot into the box. However, as it's Beckenham it may well be good for Remain !
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Was in Glasgow 17/18 Sep 2014. Best political experience of my life. This EURef campaign has got nowhere close to that in terms of engagement and good humour.Monkeys said:
The Leave excitement and these reports reminds me of Yes at Indyref, before the first results came in.HYUFD said:
Indeed, turnout is always well under 50% until at least 7pm when the rush startsMonkeys said:In Indyref, on the day of voting, there were lots of rumours of massively increased turnout in areas like Muirhouse in Edinburgh. This implied a "Yes," vote but obviously it wasn't enough. If I remember it was 30% turnout by 10am, when GE turnout would be around 25% for the whole day.
Though, all of this is interesting nevertheless.
Even if Leave loses, which is what I expect, they'll come away changed.0 -
Isn't everywhere these days got one of those twinning arrangements....seen some places where the sign telling you all the names takes longer to read than driving through the town.Jeremy_Brown said:Well I'm back from Chiddingly in the beautiful Wealden. The ladies on the desk had nearly ticked off all their names. Very high turnout - in their words. Reflected on that thought as I drove past the sign indicating the twinning with Lachappelle in France.
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Yep, we need a shake up. Have no faith that we'll get one though. Looks like a comfortable night for REMAIN.malcolmg said:
WEll done. A poke in the eye for those establishment no-gooders.GIN1138 said:
Evening Macl. Yes, voted LEAVE this morning.malcolmg said:
Evening GIN, assume you have done your patriotic duty.GIN1138 said:
Charming!Bob__Sykes said:
If there was a scintilla of residual doubt in my mind as I walked into the polling station this morning, it was removed by the sight of the 80-odd year old old dear trudging slowly but purposefully towards me from the opposite direction with a great big smile on her face ready to cast her vote. "She's definitely voting Leave, the racist old cow, before she goes home, quietly satisfied with what she may well have done for the country and the younger generations, and then shortly pops her clogs" I thoughtIanB2 said:Anecdote: my mother (staunch Conservative, member most of her life, leaning towards Leave but wavering thru the campaign because of Cameron and some of the risks) phoned to say she had voted for Remain. But thinks she is in a reasonably small minority judging from the comments of her neighbours in her semi-sheltered block.
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So Glasgow trains good London bad?Paul_Bedfordshire said:
If london is so gilded how come they are still struggling with early twentieth century d.c. third rail electrification systems and signalling that pre dates world war 2 while you have nice new signalling and overhead 25kV electrification in Glasgow?malcolmg said:
Bet it is a light shower or two, we get real rain up here not your 3 mm stuff.Jonathan said:
It's not just a bit of rain. It's the collapse of majority of the South East commuter network. Suspect you would have felt differently 18 Sep 2014 if this had impacted Glasgow.malcolmg said:
Should NOT, just because of a bit of rain, give us a break.
PS: I have been taxed a fortune to gild London and its wasted by a few showers , what cretins planned that0 -
Thanks. That means alot. However I'm still far from right in the head (insert obvious joke) and posting as well as looking after the little 'un is taking a fair bit of effort.peter_from_putney said:
Josias - it's been good to see you back in force today. Should you decide to revert to lurking in the main, do please continue to post as and when the mood takes you - your presence adds considerably to the richness of this site.JosiasJessop said:I'm very relaxed about the result. A leave vote does not necessarily mean that the country will become a basketcase (*), and neither does a remain vote.
We can be a great country inside or outside of the EU.
We can be a failure inside or outside of the EU.
The question comes down to whether it will be easier or harder whilst in. (**)
(*) Or more of, depending on your view.
(**) Fnarr
In detail:
I had another case of suspected meningitis a fortnight ago which, apparently, should not happen as this variant is non-recurring. One theory is that I never actually got over it in the first place, which would explain the continuous headaches and other problems.
Yet apparently that doesn't happen with this 'type' of meningitis.
Perhaps I'm just odd.
On the positive side, I have seen the inside of an MRI machine, which was a fascinating experience.0 -
That would account for the report about power supply failure between Elstree and St Albans.TudorRose said:
My dad just called me - he says there are reports of a train being hit by lightning (near St Albans?). Presumably there's no danger to life in that case? I assume it's like being in a car.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
If it was pure water it would be fine but its not so it conducts electricity and shorts out the rails together making the signalling system think there is a train there and putting all the signals to red.RobD said:PB Train Doyens will know this. Why can't a train run through water like this? I thought the bottom bit was purely mechanical.
https://twitter.com/greateranglia/status/745854236001439746/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw
South of the thames it also shorts out the 750v d.c. conductor rails which leak tens of thousands of amps all over the water causing all sorts of interesting things (and them to be switched off in short order)
Everyone inside should be safe because a train is basically a faraday cage but they now have a train with all itsw electrics blown and a fused power supply system which means the Midland Main line will now be at a stand which means in practical terms that if OGH has gone to London for the day and planned to vote when he got back he may well be disappointed.
Open Train times is also showing "LAND SLIP BLOK" on the up slow north of St Albans and another landslip south of st albans with everything at a stand either side of st Albans
This is the worst day of disruption for years - certainly outside winter snowstorms.0 -
Just voted out in slough (6.45pm), according to the people there turnout is steady but below 2015 ge levels0
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Should be a Faraday Cage - so yep - the charge just flows round it and up into the cloud.TudorRose said:
My dad just called me - he says there are reports of a train being hit by lightning (near St Albans?). Presumably there's no danger to life in that case? I assume it's like being in a car.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
If it was pure water it would be fine but its not so it conducts electricity and shorts out the rails together making the signalling system think there is a train there and putting all the signals to red.RobD said:PB Train Doyens will know this. Why can't a train run through water like this? I thought the bottom bit was purely mechanical.
https://twitter.com/greateranglia/status/745854236001439746/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw
South of the thames it also shorts out the 750v d.c. conductor rails which leak tens of thousands of amps all over the water causing all sorts of interesting things (and them to be switched off in short order)0 -
I'm painfully aware of this. Up until a few days ago I've never thought that Leave could actually win, and tbh I'm still semi prepared for a strong remain result. However I'd wager a bit that as if 50 mins ago Leave were in the lead.Monkeys said:
The Leave excitement and these reports reminds me of Yes at Indyref, before the first results came in.HYUFD said:
Indeed, turnout is always well under 50% until at least 7pm when the rush startsMonkeys said:In Indyref, on the day of voting, there were lots of rumours of massively increased turnout in areas like Muirhouse in Edinburgh. This implied a "Yes," vote but obviously it wasn't enough. If I remember it was 30% turnout by 10am, when GE turnout would be around 25% for the whole day.
Though, all of this is interesting nevertheless.
Even if Leave loses, which is what I expect, they'll come away changed.
0 -
Haven't you heard it's grim down south, but the rest of the country is in a bubble so they don't know about these things.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
If london is so gilded how come they are still struggling with early twentieth century d.c. third rail electrification systems and signalling that pre dates world war 2 while you have nice new signalling and overhead 25kV electrification in Glasgow?malcolmg said:
Bet it is a light shower or two, we get real rain up here not your 3 mm stuff.Jonathan said:
It's not just a bit of rain. It's the collapse of majority of the South East commuter network. Suspect you would have felt differently 18 Sep 2014 if this had impacted Glasgow.malcolmg said:
Should NOT, just because of a bit of rain, give us a break.
PS: I have been taxed a fortune to gild London and its wasted by a few showers , what cretins planned that0 -
now you are splitting hairs, we have one new signal boxPaul_Bedfordshire said:
If london is so gilded how come they are still struggling with early twentieth century d.c. third rail electrification systems and signalling that pre dates world war 2 while you have nice new signalling and overhead 25kV electrification in Glasgow?malcolmg said:
Bet it is a light shower or two, we get real rain up here not your 3 mm stuff.Jonathan said:
It's not just a bit of rain. It's the collapse of majority of the South East commuter network. Suspect you would have felt differently 18 Sep 2014 if this had impacted Glasgow.malcolmg said:
Should NOT, just because of a bit of rain, give us a break.
PS: I have been taxed a fortune to gild London and its wasted by a few showers , what cretins planned that0 -
Are they saying "Show me yours and I'll show you mine"?Casino_Royale said:Still at the polling station. Quite a few passionate Leavers showing me their pens as they go in.
As a matter of interest why would they show you their pens ..... very strange!0 -
yes and shysters pockets, double spin and through the laundryPulpstar said:
All been spent on swanky wine barsPaul_Bedfordshire said:
If london is so gilded how come they are still struggling with early twentieth century d.c. third rail electrification systems and signalling that pre dates world war 2 while you have nice new signalling and overhead 25kV electrification in Glasgow?malcolmg said:
Bet it is a light shower or two, we get real rain up here not your 3 mm stuff.Jonathan said:
It's not just a bit of rain. It's the collapse of majority of the South East commuter network. Suspect you would have felt differently 18 Sep 2014 if this had impacted Glasgow.malcolmg said:
Should NOT, just because of a bit of rain, give us a break.
PS: I have been taxed a fortune to gild London and its wasted by a few showers , what cretins planned that0 -
Leave is the interesting result because you try to work out how it will pan out. Having researched the likely options, which are a Korean style FTA or EEA membership, and factor in a period of significant economic and political turmoil, which will feed of reach other, I am confident that those options are considerably worse than what we have already while bringing no practical upside. Yet curiously won't be a disaster because we will adapt to the new reality.JosiasJessop said:I'm very relaxed about the result. A leave vote does not necessarily mean that the country will become a basketcase (*), and neither does a remain vote.
We can be a great country inside or outside of the EU.
We can be a failure inside or outside of the EU.
The question comes down to whether it will be easier or harder whilst in. (**)
(*) Or more of, depending on your view.
(**) Fnarr0 -
Worried the powers that be might try and change their vote (if they use pencil)peter_from_putney said:
Are they saying "Show me yours and I'll show you mine"?Casino_Royale said:Still at the polling station. Quite a few passionate Leavers showing me their pens as they go in.
As a matter of interest why would they show you their pens ..... very strange!0 -
Yep - and the people probably weren't consulted - just an excuse for the councillors of both to enjoy a couple of nights enjoying the high-life.FrancisUrquhart said:
Isn't everywhere these days got one of those twinning arrangements....seen some places where the sign telling you all the names takes longer to read than driving through the town.Jeremy_Brown said:Well I'm back from Chiddingly in the beautiful Wealden. The ladies on the desk had nearly ticked off all their names. Very high turnout - in their words. Reflected on that thought as I drove past the sign indicating the twinning with Lachappelle in France.
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Great for democracy, I'd love to see a turnout as high as Indyref. Might be strong for Leave?pinkrose said:0 -
If it is going to rain, pen is a bigger risk.Casino_Royale said:
Worried the powers that be might try and change their vote (if they use pencil)peter_from_putney said:
Are they saying "Show me yours and I'll show you mine"?Casino_Royale said:Still at the polling station. Quite a few passionate Leavers showing me their pens as they go in.
As a matter of interest why would they show you their pens ..... very strange!0 -
They would need more rubbers than in a Bangkok brothel for that..Casino_Royale said:
Worried the powers that be might try and change their vote (if they use pencil)peter_from_putney said:
Are they saying "Show me yours and I'll show you mine"?Casino_Royale said:Still at the polling station. Quite a few passionate Leavers showing me their pens as they go in.
As a matter of interest why would they show you their pens ..... very strange!0 -
Don't give up hope yet GIN, worst case Cameron will get his just rewards and his odious henchman along with him.GIN1138 said:
Yep, we need a shake up. Have no faith that we'll get one though. Looks like a comfortable night for REMAIN.malcolmg said:
WEll done. A poke in the eye for those establishment no-gooders.GIN1138 said:
Evening Macl. Yes, voted LEAVE this morning.malcolmg said:
Evening GIN, assume you have done your patriotic duty.GIN1138 said:
Charming!Bob__Sykes said:
If there was a scintilla of residual doubt in my mind as I walked into the polling station this morning, it was removed by the sight of the 80-odd year old old dear trudging slowly but purposefully towards me from the opposite direction with a great big smile on her face ready to cast her vote. "She's definitely voting Leave, the racist old cow, before she goes home, quietly satisfied with what she may well have done for the country and the younger generations, and then shortly pops her clogs" I thoughtIanB2 said:Anecdote: my mother (staunch Conservative, member most of her life, leaning towards Leave but wavering thru the campaign because of Cameron and some of the risks) phoned to say she had voted for Remain. But thinks she is in a reasonably small minority judging from the comments of her neighbours in her semi-sheltered block.
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Relative lives on a big council estate on the outskirts of Salisbury. Spoke on the phone just now. Own polling station was very busy this morning. In the afternoon, went to a meeting at the local church where there's another polling station - that was very busy too.Cookie said:Many of us are reporting busier than usual polling stations - but I suspect the vast majority of us are doing so from fairly middle class areas. Does this high turnout translate to working class areas?
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The pen is mightier than the fraud.Casino_Royale said:
Worried the powers that be might try and change their vote (if they use pencil)peter_from_putney said:
Are they saying "Show me yours and I'll show you mine"?Casino_Royale said:Still at the polling station. Quite a few passionate Leavers showing me their pens as they go in.
As a matter of interest why would they show you their pens ..... very strange!0 -
I think people are quite honest about their bets, and those bets' fate.currystar said:If remian wins then one wonders about the ability of this sites contributors to assist in "Political Betting". If you read back the threads over the past month and even this thread an outsider would think Leave are going to win comfortably
As I recall things (so unlikely to be true) I've only ever recommended one bet here, and it was that Vince was toast. However if all the bets I recollect were my only bets then I'd be very rich indeed, and checking my bank balance suggests otherwise.
PB is about politics more than money. I don't believe that there is a more astute community out there as regards to British politics.
PB makes you think.
0 -
Just Voted in a solid WWC area of Barnsley they expect around 80% . Black pens along with the pencils were provided :-)0
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It's much more that just one signal box:malcolmg said:
now you are splitting hairs, we have one new signal boxPaul_Bedfordshire said:
If london is so gilded how come they are still struggling with early twentieth century d.c. third rail electrification systems and signalling that pre dates world war 2 while you have nice new signalling and overhead 25kV electrification in Glasgow?malcolmg said:
Bet it is a light shower or two, we get real rain up here not your 3 mm stuff.Jonathan said:
It's not just a bit of rain. It's the collapse of majority of the South East commuter network. Suspect you would have felt differently 18 Sep 2014 if this had impacted Glasgow.malcolmg said:
Should NOT, just because of a bit of rain, give us a break.
PS: I have been taxed a fortune to gild London and its wasted by a few showers , what cretins planned that
http://www.egip.info/
As an aside, ISTR BR worked out in the 1980s that the entire rail network could be controlled from just four massive signal boxes. They chose not to start down that route for various reasons. I've always wondered why it couldn't just be one: the speed of light is too slow, perhaps?0 -
Voice of experience?timmo said:
They would need more rubbers than in a Bangkok brothel for that..Casino_Royale said:
Worried the powers that be might try and change their vote (if they use pencil)peter_from_putney said:
Are they saying "Show me yours and I'll show you mine"?Casino_Royale said:Still at the polling station. Quite a few passionate Leavers showing me their pens as they go in.
As a matter of interest why would they show you their pens ..... very strange!0 -
Off to vote after a light 2hr commute. Wondering if the polling station will be busier than May's Sussex PCC vote.0
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o_O!LordWakefield said:Just Voted in a solid WWC area of Barnsley they expect around 80% . Black pens along with the pencils were provided :-)
0 -
Tabman, Cicero, JosiasJessop (so sorry to hear of your illness- best wishes for a speedy recovery)- it is almost like the old gang is back.stodge said:On a personal note, nice to see Tabman and Cicero posting today. From the mists of the early days of political betting, they have returned.
Welcome home, gents.
0 -
I always used my pen in a Bangkok brothelOldKingCole said:
Voice of experience?timmo said:
They would need more rubbers than in a Bangkok brothel for that..Casino_Royale said:
Worried the powers that be might try and change their vote (if they use pencil)peter_from_putney said:
Are they saying "Show me yours and I'll show you mine"?Casino_Royale said:Still at the polling station. Quite a few passionate Leavers showing me their pens as they go in.
As a matter of interest why would they show you their pens ..... very strange!0 -
I hear seanT has a deluxe loyalty card.OldKingCole said:
Voice of experience?timmo said:
They would need more rubbers than in a Bangkok brothel for that..Casino_Royale said:
Worried the powers that be might try and change their vote (if they use pencil)peter_from_putney said:
Are they saying "Show me yours and I'll show you mine"?Casino_Royale said:Still at the polling station. Quite a few passionate Leavers showing me their pens as they go in.
As a matter of interest why would they show you their pens ..... very strange!
0 -
Just arrived back to St. Albans from Blackfriars. Passed the landslide which was on the up slow just north of Radlett. Trains running on the other three lines.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
That would account for the report about power supply failure between Elstree and St Albans.TudorRose said:
My dad just called me - he says there are reports of a train being hit by lightning (near St Albans?). Presumably there's no danger to life in that case? I assume it's like being in a car.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
If it was pure water it would be fine but its not so it conducts electricity and shorts out the rails together making the signalling system think there is a train there and putting all the signals to red.RobD said:PB Train Doyens will know this. Why can't a train run through water like this? I thought the bottom bit was purely mechanical.
https://twitter.com/greateranglia/status/745854236001439746/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw
South of the thames it also shorts out the 750v d.c. conductor rails which leak tens of thousands of amps all over the water causing all sorts of interesting things (and them to be switched off in short order)
Everyone inside should be safe because a train is basically a faraday cage but they now have a train with all itsw electrics blown and a fused power supply system which means the Midland Main line will now be at a stand which means in practical terms that if OGH has gone to London for the day and planned to vote when he got back he may well be disappointed.
Open Train times is also showing "LAND SLIP BLOK" on the up slow north of St Albans and another landslip south of st albans with everything at a stand either side of st Albans
This is the worst day of disruption for years - certainly outside winter snowstorms.0 -
Surely not the speed of light? I can ping my computer in San Francisco in ~150ms (which I think is the round trip time?)JosiasJessop said:
It's much more that just one signal box:malcolmg said:
now you are splitting hairs, we have one new signal boxPaul_Bedfordshire said:
If london is so gilded how come they are still struggling with early twentieth century d.c. third rail electrification systems and signalling that pre dates world war 2 while you have nice new signalling and overhead 25kV electrification in Glasgow?malcolmg said:
Bet it is a light shower or two, we get real rain up here not your 3 mm stuff.Jonathan said:
It's not just a bit of rain. It's the collapse of majority of the South East commuter network. Suspect you would have felt differently 18 Sep 2014 if this had impacted Glasgow.malcolmg said:
Should NOT, just because of a bit of rain, give us a break.
PS: I have been taxed a fortune to gild London and its wasted by a few showers , what cretins planned that
http://www.egip.info/
As an aside, ISTR BR worked out in the 1980s that the entire rail network could be controlled from just four massive signal boxes. They chose not to start down that route for various reasons. I've always wondered why it couldn't just be one: the speed of light is too slow, perhaps?0 -
32% postal vote is very good for Leave.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Great for democracy, I'd love to see a turnout as high as Indyref. Might be strong for Leave?pinkrose said:-1 -
FrancisUrquhart said:
Isn't everywhere these days got one of those twinning arrangements....seen some places where the sign telling you all the names takes longer to read than driving through the town.Jeremy_Brown said:Well I'm back from Chiddingly in the beautiful Wealden. The ladies on the desk had nearly ticked off all their names. Very high turnout - in their words. Reflected on that thought as I drove past the sign indicating the twinning with Lachappelle in France.
Twinned witn somewhere in Wales?0 -
He also reported very high turnout in his village near Buckingham.weejonnie said:
Should be a Faraday Cage - so yep - the charge just flows round it and up into the cloud.TudorRose said:
My dad just called me - he says there are reports of a train being hit by lightning (near St Albans?). Presumably there's no danger to life in that case? I assume it's like being in a car.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
If it was pure water it would be fine but its not so it conducts electricity and shorts out the rails together making the signalling system think there is a train there and putting all the signals to red.RobD said:PB Train Doyens will know this. Why can't a train run through water like this? I thought the bottom bit was purely mechanical.
https://twitter.com/greateranglia/status/745854236001439746/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw
South of the thames it also shorts out the 750v d.c. conductor rails which leak tens of thousands of amps all over the water causing all sorts of interesting things (and them to be switched off in short order)0 -
A relative of 57 years of age voted today for the third time in their life and went armed with a pen. Make of that what you will.Casino_Royale said:
Worried the powers that be might try and change their vote (if they use pencil)peter_from_putney said:
Are they saying "Show me yours and I'll show you mine"?Casino_Royale said:Still at the polling station. Quite a few passionate Leavers showing me their pens as they go in.
As a matter of interest why would they show you their pens ..... very strange!0 -
Glad to hear you are recuperating Josias , but bit mean of you to point out my deliberate mistake. For sure if they had gone for one or four they would have been in London.JosiasJessop said:
It's much more that just one signal box:malcolmg said:
now you are splitting hairs, we have one new signal boxPaul_Bedfordshire said:
If london is so gilded how come they are still struggling with early twentieth century d.c. third rail electrification systems and signalling that pre dates world war 2 while you have nice new signalling and overhead 25kV electrification in Glasgow?malcolmg said:
Bet it is a light shower or two, we get real rain up here not your 3 mm stuff.Jonathan said:
It's not just a bit of rain. It's the collapse of majority of the South East commuter network. Suspect you would have felt differently 18 Sep 2014 if this had impacted Glasgow.malcolmg said:
Should NOT, just because of a bit of rain, give us a break.
PS: I have been taxed a fortune to gild London and its wasted by a few showers , what cretins planned that
http://www.egip.info/
As an aside, ISTR BR worked out in the 1980s that the entire rail network could be controlled from just four massive signal boxes. They chose not to start down that route for various reasons. I've always wondered why it couldn't just be one: the speed of light is too slow, perhaps?0 -
I would say the comments are well-read inside and outside politics, but (ironically) hardly astute in forecasting, say, GE 2015, Corbyn's election, or even the scale of Khan's election. Hands up who saw Corbyn. Not me.Omnium said:
PB is about politics more than money. I don't believe that there is a more astute community out there as regards to British politics.currystar said:If remian wins then one wonders about the ability of this sites contributors to assist in "Political Betting". If you read back the threads over the past month and even this thread an outsider would think Leave are going to win comfortably
PB makes you think.0 -
