politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why the betting has often seemed so out of line with the po
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Wish I could have gotten on to some of those Leave odds earlier.0
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Blimey. Remain HQ must be panicking if that is across all of Scotland.nunu said:
Scottish voter fatigue! Woohoo!sarissa said:Just cast my vote in my city centre ward of Edinburgh SW - shocked at the low turnout so far. looked to be no more than 20-25% up to now, way down on 2015GE at roughly the same time.
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I wasn't going to stay up for the GE last year, but I found I just could not sleep so I came on here as I listened to the results come in. PB was brilliant that night, especially (ahem) when some of the surprises occurred. (cough)Balls(cough)rottenborough said:
Napped all afternoon, now about to go to the pub for a few and then a curry. Back in time to start shouting at the telly. Probably fall asleep mid-way through the action. Unlike when I was young in '97 and lasted the whole night.PlatoSaid said:
I'm tempted to take a nap for a hour or so before 10pm. I've been up since 0545 and just had a swig of Red Bull. It's so warm and humid here - it's soul sapping.John_M said:
I've reached that stage in life where I'll be awake periodically during the night whether I want to or not. I generally wake for reals around 4am at the latest. At least I'll have something to readRobD said:
Preparing for the grueling night shift. I have my red bull ready, although it sounds as though it's going to be four hours of talking heads.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm always worried on election day.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, still worried Leave will win?
I'm taking a break from politics for a few hours, and focus on other things
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I'm planning to stay up all night tonight as the little 'un is in nursery tomorrow, but I probably won't make it. Also, I doubt it's going to be quite as interesting, even if it may be more important.0 -
Wouldn't bother...TheScreamingEagles said:
Prepping for the final episode of The Good Wife tonight.RobD said:
Preparing for the grueling night shift. I have my red bull ready, although it sounds as though it's going to be four hours of talking heads.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm always worried on election day.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, still worried Leave will win?
I'm taking a break from politics for a few hours, and focus on other things0 -
Six to one, six to one, six to one....0
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Anecdote alert.
My London commute was tricky tonight, both tube and train impacted. Some people might struggle to get home. Left early to ensure 10pm was not at risk.
Internal chat forum at work totally Remain. Also lots of Remain stickers worn around Kings Cross.0 -
Some people in Northern climes do it on Mecca time. I think in UK is about 18 hours otherwise. Dubai is from 4am to about 7:10pm.RobD said:
Is it on Mecca time, given how late sunset is? If not, it must be awful for the folks in the arctic circleSandpit said:
A good enough Muslim boy to be fasting for Ramadan on midsummer's day? I'm just back from a work Iftar.TheScreamingEagles said:
Wicked child! Drink is urine from the last leper in Hell!Jobabob said:TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm always worried on election day.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, still worried Leave will win?
I'm taking a break from politics for a few hours, and focus on other things
Given the tropical weather, I have just started on the rum. I recommend it to TSE as a tonic, and to all fellow PBers.
And as a good Muslim boy, I don't drink alcohol.
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Voted, Edinburgh, 33% turnout maybe? Nothing amazing happening here.
A french guy came in after me and was shocked to learn he couldn't vote.
EDIT: Voted half an hour ago. 33% is me being generous.0 -
What does that mean?Paul_Bedfordshire said:Six to one, six to one, six to one....
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Oh god.nunu said:
Low turnout in Scotland. Excellent.OUT said:
Same here. Saw my first leafleters today. 2 elderly ladies for remain.Iqbal_M said:Just back from voting from Dundee at about 5.20 pm. The people there said turnout is what it usually is.
They were in a street where English is relegated to 3rd place as a language behind
Junkie and Polish.0 -
If 30 million vote and Remain are ahead by 8 - 10%, I say if, and their voters turn out, then they win by what 2.5 to 3 milllion, and that assumes all the Leave voters turn out. It is going to be difficult for Leave even with rains in the South East, even there despite the weather could be that the middle classes,the AB's with their transport will turn up to vote rather than those without.0
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Leave supporters may win even if they lose. Across Europe other countries are under pressure to hold their own referenda. We may become the only remaining member of the EU.0
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Ooh,,that could be good news for Leave. Wasn't Edinburgh supposed to be in the top 10 Remain-leaning cities?sarissa said:Just cast my vote in my city centre ward of Edinburgh SW - shocked at the low turnout so far. looked to be no more than 20-25% up to now, way down on 2015GE at roughly the same time.
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It's quite possible that - as with the General Election - the first few results could give the game away. Certainly if Remain are indeed at the upper range of some of the latest polls, that should be the case. On the other hand if the early results are close it could be a long night...Omnium said:
(My understanding) Someone here suggested that (I think) Nuneaton would announce their count first at say 2am. If it's an easy win, then perhaps we'll know at 4am. 6am for close, and next week if its a handful of votes.Chameleon said:What's everyone's plans for tonight? I'm planning to get to bed early and then wake up early morning-ish around (4?) to watch the results. What are the first bell-weathers?
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Cumbria is not a council district counting area in this election .Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Cumbria is in the top ten most eurosceptic council districts according to the Yougov interactive in yesterdays MailStark_Dawning said:My spy in rural Cumbria (very experienced at these things) describes the turnout as very high.
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It's OK they have got a load filled in and waiting to be picked up from finchley road! ;-)Paul_Bedfordshire said:There won't alas for remain be any extra boxes of completed ballots appearing. GCHQs basement has flooded
http://order-order.com/2016/06/23/referendum-day-cchq-leak/0 -
I presume it will be outer London that's more affected. Where it will be much tighter - although maybe commuters will be more likely to remain.Jonathan said:Anecdote alert.
My London commute was tricky tonight, both tube and train impacted. Some people might struggle to get home. Left early to ensure 10pm was not at risk.
Internal chat forum at work totally Remain. Also lots of Remain stickers worn around Kings Cross.0 -
We could always talk about engineering ....JosiasJessop said:
I wasn't going to stay up for the GE last year, but I found I just could not sleep so I came on here as I listened to the results come in. PB was brilliant that night, especially (ahem) when some of the surprises occurred. (cough)Balls(cough)rottenborough said:
Napped all afternoon, now about to go to the pub for a few and then a curry. Back in time to start shouting at the telly. Probably fall asleep mid-way through the action. Unlike when I was young in '97 and lasted the whole night.PlatoSaid said:
I'm tempted to take a nap for a hour or so before 10pm. I've been up since 0545 and just had a swig of Red Bull. It's so warm and humid here - it's soul sapping.John_M said:
I've reached that stage in life where I'll be awake periodically during the night whether I want to or not. I generally wake for reals around 4am at the latest. At least I'll have something to readRobD said:
Preparing for the grueling night shift. I have my red bull ready, although it sounds as though it's going to be four hours of talking heads.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm always worried on election day.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, still worried Leave will win?
I'm taking a break from politics for a few hours, and focus on other things.
I'm planning to stay up all night tonight as the little 'un is in nursery tomorrow, but I probably won't make it. Also, I doubt it's going to be quite as interesting, even if it may be more important.0 -
@TSE I'm not allowed to watch the final episode of the Good Wife tonight. I've been told that I've got to wait until my other half is back in the country and we can watch it together.
If anyone intends revealing any spoilers tomorrow, I shall wreak vengeance. You have been warned.0 -
I'm getting a picture of 50% Glasgow, 60% rest of Scotland from what I see on twitter.nunu said:
Low turnout in Scotland. Excellent.OUT said:
Same here. Saw my first leafleters today. 2 elderly ladies for remain.Iqbal_M said:Just back from voting from Dundee at about 5.20 pm. The people there said turnout is what it usually is.
They were in a street where English is relegated to 3rd place as a language behind
Junkie and Polish.0 -
Just done my democratic duty. Very high turnout here on the glorious sunshine Lancashire coast, certainly more voters crossed off the register than at the same time last year. And traffic gridlock around the polling station, which I've never seen before. Don't ask me what I think it means. This is a classic shy Tory area, politics is never discussed and zero posters so I've no idea how they're voting.Monkeys said:Voted, Edinburgh, 33% turnout maybe? Nothing amazing happening here.
A french guy came in after me and was shocked to learn he couldn't vote.0 -
Latest Travel News:
Much as I want Leave to win I hope the win is not so tiny that this is what decides it:
Severe Delays on the Metropolitan, Hammersmith and City, District Edgware Rd & Wimbledon), Circle and Bakerloo lines.
Southern services between London Victoria and Brighton are suspended for the rest of today
Services to Portsmouth/Southampton and Bognor Regis will be running but will be disrupted and delays are likely.
Services to Eastbourne/Ore and Littlehampton will be running but will be disrupted and delays are likely.
Some stopping services to Horsham will be running however you may need to use alternative services.
Services will not be running to Reigate, customers will need to travel to Redhill and use Great Western Railway services, or travel to Dorking and change there for Great Western Railway services.
Most services between London Victoria and Sutton and Epsom are suspended however some trains will run via Mitcham Junction.
Services between London Victoria and Caterham may be suspended
Some trains will be terminating and starting from East Croydon.
London Victoria to London Bridge services are planned to run.
Gatwick Express services are being reintroduced. When this reduced service is running trains will stop additionally at Clapham Junction and East Croydon.
Due to heavy flooding of the railway at Manor Park all lines were blocked. Further flooding at Seven Kings is causing further disruption to services between London Liverpool Street and Romford. Abellio Greater Anglia services between London Liverpool Street, Shenfield, Southend Victoria, Southminster, Braintree, Colchester, Manningtree, Ipswich and Norwich are being disrupted. TfL Rail are running a reduced service between London Liverpool Street and Shenfield.
Areduced service will run between London and Dartford via Woolwich / Bexleyheath / Sidcup
A reduced service will run between Dartford and Gravesend
Some trains between London Charing Cross and Gillingham may be cancelled or revised
A reduced service will run between London and Orpington via Grove Park
Trains on the Hayes Line may start / terminate at Elmers End, Clock House or New Beckenham
Trains between London Victoria and Orpington will be diverted to run to and from London Blackfriars
Mainline services will run, but alterations and cancellations can be expected.
Trains are not able to run on all or part of the following routes:
London Waterloo to/from Woking/Guildford via Esher
London Waterloo to/from Hampton Court
London Waterloo to/from Chessington
London Waterloo to/from Woking stopping service
London Waterloo to/from Guildford stopping service
London Waterloo to/ from Portsmouth via Eastleigh
London Waterloo to/from Salisbury and Exeter will terminate and start at Basingstoke. You will need to use an alternative train between Basingstoke and London Waterloo.
Train services will not run between Shepperton and Fulwell all day today.0 -
Monkeys said:
Voted, Edinburgh, 33% turnout maybe? Nothing amazing happening here.
A french guy came in after me and was shocked to learn he couldn't vote.
EDIT: Voted half an hour ago. 33% is me being generous.
I had a similar experience with an enraged foreign lady & she couldn't understand it because she had been sent loads of the campaign junk.
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Interesting article.
I wonder if the stock markets and money markets are looking at Betfair, assuming they know what they are talking about and so bet the pound etc up.
Then the betting markets looks at the money markets and see they have gone up, assume some private polling and bet accordingly...
Still Mike might also be right as well.
Turnout looks to be high.0 -
That's a lot of train disruption
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Get in!DanSmith said:
Seeing reports that turnout in Catholic areas of NI is low.nunu said:
Low turnout in Scotland. Excellent.OUT said:
Same here. Saw my first leafleters today. 2 elderly ladies for remain.Iqbal_M said:Just back from voting from Dundee at about 5.20 pm. The people there said turnout is what it usually is.
They were in a street where English is relegated to 3rd place as a language behind
Junkie and Polish.0 -
Thats the odds I got on Leave at lunchtimenunu said:
What does that mean?Paul_Bedfordshire said:Six to one, six to one, six to one....
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Latimer road London, same turnout as mayoral election so far.
32% by 1pm.
Make of that what you will, large BME population I think.
Not my area, asked on the way to play footie 0 -
It always boggles me how people throw the "high tax, high spend" remark at the Scandinavian countries like its an insult and we are so lucky not to be them.malcolmg said:
I don't mind, for me I want a fairer society and not an elite few deciding everything and pocketing all the cash. On almost every indicator the UK is bottom of the heap, an unhappy , obese , ill divided dump.
When these robbers are taking 150 times average wage and wrecking the country something is far wrong.
But it seems to me that there is very little appetite to change their systems and not only do they appear to work well economically and socially but the people are genuinely happy and like how their systems work.
If anything, they are about to move even further from proper capitalism with the Finnish introduction of Citizens Income. That may be a real game changer if they get it to function as well as some expect it to do.0 -
Oh my God, you've just triggered me. It's brought back all the memories of my commute to London that I'd suppressed. I thought this was a safe space *sobs*.Paul_Bedfordshire said:Latest Travel News:
Much as I want Leave to win I hope the win is not so tiny that this is what decides it:
Severe Delays on the Metropolitan, Hammersmith and City, District Edgware Rd & Wimbledon), Circle and Bakerloo lines.
....
Train services will not run between Shepperton and Fulwell all day today.0 -
if your mother had wheels she would be a wheelbarrow as well.theakes said:If 30 million vote and Remain are ahead by 8 - 10%, I say if, and their voters turn out, then they win by what 2.5 to 3 milllion, and that assumes all the Leave voters turn out. It is going to be difficult for Leave even with rains in the South East, even there despite the weather could be that the middle classes,the AB's with their transport will turn up to vote rather than those without.
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Very high turnout at my local polling station. The road is completely blocked up with cars. Never seen it this busy before.0
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Scotland's chief returning officer Mary Pitkeithley just interviewed on BBC estimates turnout at 70-80% #EUref0
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The Polls are still open for over 3 hours, I doubt any of these delays will actually stop anyone voting and if there is a chance Cameron will just extend the closing times for an hour!Paul_Bedfordshire said:Latest Travel News:
Much as I want Leave to win I hope the win is not so tiny that this is what decides it:
Severe Delays on the Metropolitan, Hammersmith and City, District Edgware Rd & Wimbledon), Circle and Bakerloo lines.
Southern services between London Victoria and Brighton are suspended for the rest of today
Services to Portsmouth/Southampton and Bognor Regis will be running but will be disrupted and delays are likely.
Services to Eastbourne/Ore and Littlehampton will be running but will be disrupted and delays are likely.
Some stopping services to Horsham will be running however you may need to use alternative services.
Services will not be running to Reigate, customers will need to travel to Redhill and use Great Western Railway services, or travel to Dorking and change there for Great Western Railway services.
Most services between London Victoria and Sutton and Epsom are suspended however some trains will run via Mitcham Junction.
Services between London Victoria and Caterham may be suspended
Some trains will be terminating and starting from East Croydon.
London Victoria to London Bridge services are planned to run.
Gatwick Express services are being reintroduced. When this reduced service is running trains will stop additionally at Clapham Junction and East Croydon.
Due to heavy flooding of the railway at Manor Park all lines were blocked. Further flooding at Seven Kings is causing further disruption to services between London Liverpool Street and Romford. Abellio Greater Anglia services between London Liverpool Street, Shenfield, Southend Victoria, Southminster, Braintree, Colchester, Manningtree, Ipswich and Norwich are being disrupted. TfL Rail are running a reduced service between London Liverpool Street and Shenfield.
Areduced service will run between London and Dartford via Woolwich / Bexleyheath / Sidcup
A reduced service will run between Dartford and Gravesend
Some trains between London Charing Cross and Gillingham may be cancelled or revised
A reduced service will run between London and Orpington via Grove Park
Trains on the Hayes Line may start / terminate at Elmers End, Clock House or New Beckenham
Trains between London Victoria and Orpington will be diverted to run to and from London Blackfriars0 -
Which region or area ?MP_SE said:Very high turnout at my local polling station. The road is completely blocked up with cars. Never seen it this busy before.
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I think we can already conclude that the vote has been got out. That's a great thing, irrespective of the result.0
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snap !0
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If BME population do not come out in large numbers for Remain, I do not see how Remain can possibly win.Tony said:Latimer road London, same turnout as mayoral election so far.
32% by 1pm.
Make of that what you will, large BME population I think.
Not my area, asked on the way to play footie0 -
Wishful thinking. My neighbour a Leaver reported despite torrential rain and thunder overhead in mid Kent the polling station was busy plus full of white van man and wwc types. Not sure this is quite over for Leave yet.theakes said:If 30 million vote and Remain are ahead by 8 - 10%, I say if, and their voters turn out, then they win by what 2.5 to 3 milllion, and that assumes all the Leave voters turn out. It is going to be difficult for Leave even with rains in the South East, even there despite the weather could be that the middle classes,the AB's with their transport will turn up to vote rather than those without.
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As a Lancastrian, I have always had a good laugh at southerners (particularly Londoners) failing to cope with a cm of snowfall.
Now it seems they can't cope with a bit of rain either....
Joking aside, it could have an impact what with London being a Remain hotbed. I'm a bit concerned!0 -
@ShippersUnbound: Some council estates in Leicestershire had hit usual general election turnout by lunchtime apparently. Brexiteers gain heart.0
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For me the issue was too important NOT to vote on irrespective of the campaign.TudorRose said:
Does it mean that 'nasty, ineffective' campaigns galvanize voters? If so, we get the politics we deserve.John_M said:I think we can already conclude that the vote has been got out. That's a great thing, irrespective of the result.
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I think it comes down to a case of - "how much do you trust your politicians to spend it wisely?" I can understand why there's a reluctance to let our ones loose with any more of our money.Lowlander said:
It always boggles me how people throw the "high tax, high spend" remark at the Scandinavian countries like its an insult and we are so lucky not to be them.malcolmg said:
I don't mind, for me I want a fairer society and not an elite few deciding everything and pocketing all the cash. On almost every indicator the UK is bottom of the heap, an unhappy , obese , ill divided dump.
When these robbers are taking 150 times average wage and wrecking the country something is far wrong.
But it seems to me that there is very little appetite to change their systems and not only do they appear to work well economically and socially but the people are genuinely happy and like how their systems work.
If anything, they are about to move even further from proper capitalism with the Finnish introduction of Citizens Income. That may be a real game changer if they get it to function as well as some expect it to do.0 -
From the Reuters article posted earlier, quoting the Electoral Commission:
CAN THE COUNT AND VOTE BE CHALLENGED?
This is unlikely. The electoral commission says the rules do not provide for a national recount under any circumstances. Requests for local recounts can be made at the local level, to be decided by the counting officer.
"We expect local recounts to be granted if a specific issue has been identified with the process in that counting area, rather than simply when the local totals are close," the commission says.
The only way to challenge the national referendum result is by judicial review, which must be requested within six weeks of the certification of the result.0 -
Anecdotage- have been to half a dozen polling stations so far and turnout is well above GE levels. In not so well to do places. Just witnessed two self confessed non voters turning out for leave (asking how to vote as never have done so)0
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David Cameron will announce at 10.00am tomorrow that due to the disruption in London, the voting for the area will be held again in 4 weeks time.Bob__Sykes said:As a Lancastrian, I have always had a good laugh at southerners (particularly Londoners) failing to cope with a cm of snowfall.
Now it seems they can't cope with a bit of rain either....
Joking aside, it could have an impact what with London being a Remain hotbed. I'm a bit concerned!0 -
I would not be so sure. Had a 4hr commute (up from 1h30) earlier in the week. Today's conditions are worse.HYUFD said:
The Polls are still open for over 3 hours, I doubt any of these delays will actually stop anyone voting and if there is a chance Cameron will just extend the closing times for an hour!Paul_Bedfordshire said:Latest Travel News:
Much as I want Leave to win I hope the win is not so tiny that this is what decides it:
Severe Delays on the Metropolitan, Hammersmith and City, District Edgware Rd & Wimbledon), Circle and Bakerloo lines.
Southern services between London Victoria and Brighton are suspended for the rest of today
Services to Portsmouth/Southampton and Bognor Regis will be running but will be disrupted and delays are likely.
Services to Eastbourne/Ore and Littlehampton will be running but will be disrupted and delays are likely.
Some stopping services to Horsham will be running however you may need to use alternative services.
Services will not be running to Reigate, customers will need to travel to Redhill and use Great Western Railway services, or travel to Dorking and change there for Great Western Railway services.
Most services between London Victoria and Sutton and Epsom are suspended however some trains will run via Mitcham Junction.
Services between London Victoria and Caterham may be suspended
Some trains will be terminating and starting from East Croydon.
London Victoria to London Bridge services are planned to run.
Gatwick Express services are being reintroduced. When this reduced service is running trains will stop additionally at Clapham Junction and East Croydon.
Due to heavy flooding of the railway at Manor Park all lines were blocked. Further flooding at Seven Kings is causing further disruption to services between London Liverpool Street and Romford. Abellio Greater Anglia services between London Liverpool Street, Shenfield, Southend Victoria, Southminster, Braintree, Colchester, Manningtree, Ipswich and Norwich are being disrupted. TfL Rail are running a reduced service between London Liverpool Street and Shenfield.
Areduced service will run between London and Dartford via Woolwich / Bexleyheath / Sidcup
A reduced service will run between Dartford and Gravesend
Some trains between London Charing Cross and Gillingham may be cancelled or revised
A reduced service will run between London and Orpington via Grove Park
Trains on the Hayes Line may start / terminate at Elmers End, Clock House or New Beckenham
Trains between London Victoria and Orpington will be diverted to run to and from London Blackfriars
If the polls can stay open later, they should.0 -
East SurreyRealBritain said:
Which region or area ?MP_SE said:Very high turnout at my local polling station. The road is completely blocked up with cars. Never seen it this busy before.
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Anecdotes - take em or leave them.
My son aged 25, never voted for anything in his life, voted today for the first time (leave)
A poll of his friend group on line showing those who voted favours leave by a huge amount.
Person at work who was sure he was voting out until today wavered several times before deciding in end to vote leave.
His wife who was certain for in has also now decided for out.
A local secondary school held a mock election, leave won. That I am surprised by - and of course I know they can't vote for real.
I also had lunch with someone yesterday who didn't have a clue on the issues involved, but on balance was probably going to vote in. My favourite line of his from yesterday "losing democracy is a price worth paying for peace" ....................... errrrr0 -
That would be fun. Build it from the ground up.Fenman said:Leave supporters may win even if they lose. Across Europe other countries are under pressure to hold their own referenda. We may become the only remaining member of the EU.
And if France want in - "Non!!"0 -
I have yet to hear from anybody that they think the campaigns have been anything but poor. People are getting to the polling stations because it's important. In my immediate circle, one person was influenced by the Wembley debate.TudorRose said:
Does it mean that 'nasty, ineffective' campaigns galvanize voters? If so, we get the politics we deserve.John_M said:I think we can already conclude that the vote has been got out. That's a great thing, irrespective of the result.
Other than that, it's all just been blah blah blah (this insight bought to you by my sister).0 -
Many of us are reporting busier than usual polling stations - but I suspect the vast majority of us are doing so from fairly middle class areas. Does this high turnout translate to working class areas?0
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Given there hasn't been several billion pounds worth of turnover on betfair I think you can safely assume that these markets are distinct.BenedictWhite said:Interesting article.
I wonder if the stock markets and money markets are looking at Betfair, assuming they know what they are talking about and so bet the pound etc up.
Then the betting markets looks at the money markets and see they have gone up, assume some private polling and bet accordingly...
Still Mike might also be right as well.
Turnout looks to be high.
BF have quite bafflingly failed to capitalise on the biggest opportunity ever presented to them. I can't imagine there has ever been such a squandered opportunity.
They'll be ok mind you. This will be their biggest ever gain.
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Hmm - must be Leaveish, no ?MP_SE said:
East SurreyRealBritain said:
Which region or area ?MP_SE said:Very high turnout at my local polling station. The road is completely blocked up with cars. Never seen it this busy before.
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Sorry Rochdale, you've answered my questoin before I asked it!RochdalePioneers said:Anecdotage- have been to half a dozen polling stations so far and turnout is well above GE levels. In not so well to do places. Just witnessed two self confessed non voters turning out for leave (asking how to vote as never have done so)
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And I think that some people have waited decades to do this.Pulpstar said:
For me the issue was too important NOT to vote on irrespective of the campaign.TudorRose said:
Does it mean that 'nasty, ineffective' campaigns galvanize voters? If so, we get the politics we deserve.John_M said:I think we can already conclude that the vote has been got out. That's a great thing, irrespective of the result.
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Your neighbour says things like wwc and white van man?Norm said:
Wishful thinking. My neighbour a Leaver reported despite torrential rain and thunder overhead in mid Kent the polling station was busy plus full of white van man and wwc types. Not sure this is quite over for Leave yet.theakes said:If 30 million vote and Remain are ahead by 8 - 10%, I say if, and their voters turn out, then they win by what 2.5 to 3 milllion, and that assumes all the Leave voters turn out. It is going to be difficult for Leave even with rains in the South East, even there despite the weather could be that the middle classes,the AB's with their transport will turn up to vote rather than those without.
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Maybe with some territorial concessionsMarqueeMark said:
That would be fun. Build it from the ground up.Fenman said:Leave supporters may win even if they lose. Across Europe other countries are under pressure to hold their own referenda. We may become the only remaining member of the EU.
And if France want in - "Non!!"
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Weather seems to be clearing up here in London - hopefully people can come back from work in time and vote.0
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Wow from all the evidence here from numerous reports all over the country leave have won.0
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If that is the case, I think that Conservatives ought to go around those estates and talk to the voters. After all we know Labour really don't give a sh*t what they think.Scott_P said:@ShippersUnbound: Some council estates in Leicestershire had hit usual general election turnout by lunchtime apparently. Brexiteers gain heart.
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Add in people who've just finished the early shift.HYUFD said:
Yes, and a few OAPs, students and the unemployed and that is it. Most voters vote 7-9am or 5-10pmYossariansChild said:
Who votes at 3pm?HYUFD said:
Turnout will obviously not match indyref but who votes at 3pm? Most people vote 5pm onwards if they did not vote first thing in the morning and so you would expect a higher turnout by the time you got to the polls in the general and Scottish electionsLowlander said:
True. But for IndyRef the polling place was much busier and there were far more names crossed off at 8am when I voted than there were at 3pm today. For the GE and Scottish elections, again the polling place was far busier with far more names crossed out (both of those I voted late afternoon).HYUFD said:
When is the turnout in Glasgow ever high? Even in indyref it had one of the lowest turnouts in Scotland. Outside of the Borders I would guess Glasgow will have one of the highest Brexit votes in Scotland, Edinburgh and Aberdeen will be much more pro Remain, so a low Glasgow turnout is not necessarily terrible news for RemainLowlander said:From my experience in Glasgow, the turnout in Scotland is not going to be high. I voted late afternoon and glancing at the electoral register list, there was barely 1 in 5 of the names crossed out.
Twitter is confusing with a lot of people reporting personal experience of dead polling places while the Leave email about "high Scottish turnout" and a 9am statement from the Chief Returning Officer keep getting re-tweeted. I tend towards the personal experiences getting reported.
I think Remain's hopes for a big boost from Scotland will be quite heavily suppressed due to turnout.
Mums picking up their kids from school / collecting them from nursery.0 -
Even though more turnout is probably good for Leave, it's nice to see people participating in democracy who normally don'tRochdalePioneers said:Anecdotage- have been to half a dozen polling stations so far and turnout is well above GE levels. In not so well to do places. Just witnessed two self confessed non voters turning out for leave (asking how to vote as never have done so)
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You really think Leavers are going to pipe up in those circumstances?Jonathan said:
Internal chat forum at work totally Remain.
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We have to ask are people turning out for remain that have never voted before?
Probably but not in the same numbers as for leave,0 -
If you Leave just after 5pm even with a 4 hour commute you still get back shortly after 9pm and that is not going to affect anyone who lives in Greater London but maybe some in the commuter beltJonathan said:
I would not be so sure. Had a 4hr commute (up from 1h30) earlier in the week. Today's conditions are worse.HYUFD said:
The Polls are still open for over 3 hours, I doubt any of these delays will actually stop anyone voting and if there is a chance Cameron will just extend the closing times for an hour!Paul_Bedfordshire said:Latest Travel News:
Much as I want Leave to win I hope the win is not so tiny that this is what decides it:
Severe Delays on the Metropolitan, Hammersmith and City, District Edgware Rd & Wimbledon), Circle and Bakerloo lines.
Southern services between London Victoria and Brighton are suspended for the rest of today
Services to Portsmouth/Southampton and Bognor Regis will be running but will be disrupted and delays are likely.
Services to Eastbourne/Ore and Littlehampton will be running but will be disrupted and delays are likely.
Due to heavy flooding of the railway at Manor Park all lines were blocked. Further flooding at Seven Kings is causing further disruption to services between London Liverpool Street and Romford. Abellio Greater Anglia services between London Liverpool Street, Shenfield, Southend Victoria, Southminster, Braintree, Colchester, Manningtree, Ipswich and Norwich are being disrupted. TfL Rail are running a reduced service between London Liverpool Street and Shenfield.
Areduced service will run between London and Dartford via Woolwich / Bexleyheath / Sidcup
A reduced service will run between Dartford and Gravesend
Some trains between London Charing Cross and Gillingham may be cancelled or revised
A reduced service will run between London and Orpington via Grove Park
Trains on the Hayes Line may start / terminate at Elmers End, Clock House or New Beckenham
Trains between London Victoria and Orpington will be diverted to run to and from London Blackfriars
If the polls can stay open later, they should.0 -
Yeah, an 80% turnout would be great.Freggles said:
Even though more turnout is probably good for Leave, it's nice to see people participating in democracy who normally don'tRochdalePioneers said:Anecdotage- have been to half a dozen polling stations so far and turnout is well above GE levels. In not so well to do places. Just witnessed two self confessed non voters turning out for leave (asking how to vote as never have done so)
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Waterloo and city now suspended due to fire alert at bank.RobD said:That's a lot of train disruption
Rest of district line now has severe delays due to signal failures at St James Park & South Kensington caused by Flooding.
Met ad Picc lines between Rayners Lane & Uxbridge closed by Flooding.
Severe delays at Farringdon due to signal failure due to Flooding (affecting H&C and Circle with Met line suspended between Baker St and Aldgate)
Thameslink services delayed due to failure of power supply between Elstree and St Albans
West London Line closed due to flooding at Clapham Junction
East London line closed between Surrey Quays and New Cross
Buses disrupted across London due to severe wet weather Check yr route here https://tfl.gov.uk/bus/status/0 -
Has this been shared?
http://order-order.com/2016/06/23/bob-geldof-boat-passenger-votes-leave/
Join the party people, you know you want too.0 -
Pre 5pm of course it will be full of white van men and the wwc as most of them work locally, few commute to London, even accounting for the fact Kent will comfortably vote Leave in all but the wealthier west regardless of what the result is nationallyNorm said:
Wishful thinking. My neighbour a Leaver reported despite torrential rain and thunder overhead in mid Kent the polling station was busy plus full of white van man and wwc types. Not sure this is quite over for Leave yet.theakes said:If 30 million vote and Remain are ahead by 8 - 10%, I say if, and their voters turn out, then they win by what 2.5 to 3 milllion, and that assumes all the Leave voters turn out. It is going to be difficult for Leave even with rains in the South East, even there despite the weather could be that the middle classes,the AB's with their transport will turn up to vote rather than those without.
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Lol don't worry Londoner's will turnout even if they have to swim. Have to protect their high house prices.Bob__Sykes said:As a Lancastrian, I have always had a good laugh at southerners (particularly Londoners) failing to cope with a cm of snowfall.
Now it seems they can't cope with a bit of rain either....
Joking aside, it could have an impact what with London being a Remain hotbed. I'm a bit concerned!0 -
The Leave price is drifting out. Seems at odds with the turnout reports and the London storms.0
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In Indyref, on the day of voting, there were lots of rumours of massively increased turnout in areas like Muirhouse in Edinburgh. This implied a "Yes," vote but obviously it wasn't enough. If I remember it was 30% turnout by 10am, when GE turnout would be around 25% for the whole day.
Though, all of this is interesting nevertheless.0 -
If there was a scintilla of residual doubt in my mind as I walked into the polling station this morning, it was removed by the sight of the 80-odd year old old dear trudging slowly but purposefully towards me from the opposite direction with a great big smile on her face ready to cast her vote. "She's definitely voting Leave, the racist old cow, before she goes home, quietly satisfied with what she may well have done for the country and the younger generations, and then shortly pops her clogs" I thought - it stiffened my sinews, and made me clear I needed to vote Remain.IanB2 said:Anecdote: my mother (staunch Conservative, member most of her life, leaning towards Leave but wavering thru the campaign because of Cameron and some of the risks) phoned to say she had voted for Remain. But thinks she is in a reasonably small minority judging from the comments of her neighbours in her semi-sheltered block.
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All the BME voters had voted in my office, with one voting straight after and the mayoral election has a higher turnout than most local electionsLowlander said:
If BME population do not come out in large numbers for Remain, I do not see how Remain can possibly win.Tony said:Latimer road London, same turnout as mayoral election so far.
32% by 1pm.
Make of that what you will, large BME population I think.
Not my area, asked on the way to play footie0 -
I reckon that the (non-voting) WWC is turning out in record numbers. My 52-48 prediction for Leave is looking good IMO.
I have been completely and utterly wrong before mind you.0 -
Was on a worked related visit to a uni today. Term had finished and the polling station like a ghost town. I am sure lots of students registered at parents address and got.out to vote, but I wonder if it would tactically for remain been better to hold this 2 weeks ago? Would have got a massive guaranteed student turn out, easy to get them herded like sheep to the polls.0
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Should NOT, just because of a bit of rain, give us a break.Jonathan said:
I would not be so sure. Had a 4hr commute (up from 1h30) earlier in the week. Today's conditions are worse.HYUFD said:
The Polls are still open for over 3 hours, I doubt any of these delays will actually stop anyone voting and if there is a chance Cameron will just extend the closing times for an hour!Paul_Bedfordshire said:Latest Travel News:
Much as I want Leave to win I hope the win is not so tiny that this is what decides it:
Severe Delays on the Metropolitan, Hammersmith and City, District Edgware Rd & Wimbledon), Circle and Bakerloo lines.
Southern services between London Victoria and Brighton are suspended for the rest of today
Services to Portsmouth/Southampton and Bognor Regis will be running but will be disrupted and delays are likely.
Services to Eastbourne/Ore and Littlehampton will be running but will be disrupted and delays are likely.
Some stopping services to Horsham will be running however you may need to use alternative services.
Services will not be running to Reigate, customers will need to travel to Redhill and use Great Western Railway services, or travel to Dorking and change there for Great Western Railway services.
Most services between London Victoria and Sutton and Epsom are suspended however some trains will run via Mitcham Junction.
Services between London Victoria and Caterham may be suspended
Some trains will be terminating and starting from East Croydon.
London Victoria to London Bridge services are planned to run.
Gatwick Express services are being reintroduced. When this reduced service is running trains will stop additionally at Clapham Junction and East Croydon.
Due to heavy flooding of the railway at Manor Park all lines were blocked. Further flooding at Seven Kings is causing further disruption to services between London Liverpool Street and Romford. Abellio Greater Anglia services between London Liverpool Street, Shenfield, Southend Victoria, Southminster, Braintree, Colchester, Manningtree, Ipswich and Norwich are being disrupted. TfL Rail are running a reduced service between London Liverpool Street and Shenfield.
Areduced service will run between London and Dartford via Woolwich / Bexleyheath / Sidcup
A reduced service will run between Dartford and Gravesend
Some trains between London Charing Cross and Gillingham may be cancelled or revised
A reduced service will run between London and Orpington via Grove Park
Trains on the Hayes Line may start / terminate at Elmers End, Clock House or New Beckenham
Trains between London Victoria and Orpington will be diverted to run to and from London Blackfriars
If the polls can stay open later, they should.0 -
@steve_hawkes: Ladbrokes: Brexit the horse - poised to challenge - looked threatening then ultimately faded to come 6th at Newbury in the 6.100
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I should have added East Surrey area of the county not the constituency.RealBritain said:
Hmm - must be Leaveish, no ?MP_SE said:
East SurreyRealBritain said:
Which region or area ?MP_SE said:Very high turnout at my local polling station. The road is completely blocked up with cars. Never seen it this busy before.
Possibly. The older population will go Leave. It is the younger ones I am not sure about.0 -
Indeed, turnout is always well under 50% until at least 7pm when the rush startsMonkeys said:In Indyref, on the day of voting, there were lots of rumours of massively increased turnout in areas like Muirhouse in Edinburgh. This implied a "Yes," vote but obviously it wasn't enough. If I remember it was 30% turnout by 10am, when GE turnout would be around 25% for the whole day.
Though, all of this is interesting nevertheless.0 -
Absolutely! Hope those who have turned out today continue to turn out for other elections. Democracy is good, and the higher the turnout the better it is.Freggles said:
Even though more turnout is probably good for Leave, it's nice to see people participating in democracy who normally don'tRochdalePioneers said:Anecdotage- have been to half a dozen polling stations so far and turnout is well above GE levels. In not so well to do places. Just witnessed two self confessed non voters turning out for leave (asking how to vote as never have done so)
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Just think of Emily Thornberry tonight if it is the WWC that swing it to leave.
She might as well throw the towel in and get out of politics0 -
It had until GCHQs london HQ cellar flooded and spoiled all the extras......timmo said:
Note: This is a joke0 -
Scared to get their shoes wetnunu said:
Lol don't worry Londoner's will turnout even if they have to swim. Have to protect their high house prices.Bob__Sykes said:As a Lancastrian, I have always had a good laugh at southerners (particularly Londoners) failing to cope with a cm of snowfall.
Now it seems they can't cope with a bit of rain either....
Joking aside, it could have an impact what with London being a Remain hotbed. I'm a bit concerned!0 -
What have you read on here that points to a Leave victory ?SPML said:Wow from all the evidence here from numerous reports all over the country leave have won.
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CCHQ, not GCHQ. Not quite the same thingPaul_Bedfordshire said:
It had until GCHQs london HQ cellar flooded and spoiled all the extras......timmo said:
Note: This is a joke. 0 -
Charming!Bob__Sykes said:
If there was a scintilla of residual doubt in my mind as I walked into the polling station this morning, it was removed by the sight of the 80-odd year old old dear trudging slowly but purposefully towards me from the opposite direction with a great big smile on her face ready to cast her vote. "She's definitely voting Leave, the racist old cow, before she goes home, quietly satisfied with what she may well have done for the country and the younger generations, and then shortly pops her clogs" I thoughtIanB2 said:Anecdote: my mother (staunch Conservative, member most of her life, leaning towards Leave but wavering thru the campaign because of Cameron and some of the risks) phoned to say she had voted for Remain. But thinks she is in a reasonably small minority judging from the comments of her neighbours in her semi-sheltered block.
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