From my experience in Glasgow, the turnout in Scotland is not going to be high. I voted late afternoon and glancing at the electoral register list, there was barely 1 in 5 of the names crossed out.
Twitter is confusing with a lot of people reporting personal experience of dead polling places while the Leave email about "high Scottish turnout" and a 9am statement from the Chief Returning Officer keep getting re-tweeted. I tend towards the personal experiences getting reported.
I think Remain's hopes for a big boost from Scotland will be quite heavily suppressed due to turnout.
When is the turnout in Glasgow ever high? Even in indyref it had one of the lowest turnouts in Scotland. Outside of the Borders I would guess Glasgow will have one of the highest Brexit votes in Scotland, Edinburgh and Aberdeen will be much more pro Remain, so a low Glasgow turnout is not necessarily terrible news for Remain
True. But for IndyRef the polling place was much busier and there were far more names crossed off at 8am when I voted than there were at 3pm today. For the GE and Scottish elections, again the polling place was far busier with far more names crossed out (both of those I voted late afternoon).
Turnout will obviously not match indyref but who votes at 3pm? Most people vote 5pm onwards if they did not vote first thing in the morning and so you would expect a higher turnout by the time you got to the polls in the general and Scottish elections
Just back from voting from Dundee at about 5.20 pm. The people there said turnout is what it usually is.
Same here. Saw my first leafleters today. 2 elderly ladies for remain. They were in a street where English is relegated to 3rd place as a language behind Junkie and Polish.
I'm taking a break from politics for a few hours, and focus on other things
Preparing for the grueling night shift. I have my red bull ready, although it sounds as though it's going to be four hours of talking heads.
I've reached that stage in life where I'll be awake periodically during the night whether I want to or not. I generally wake for reals around 4am at the latest. At least I'll have something to read .
If they have done their sums right, the larger lost bets on Remain should cover the cost of paying out the winnings to the Leave people (on betfair, since bets are matched, the transfers take place directly between the two sets of punters). Typically however bookmakers tend to do better when the expected happens (favourite wins) and can be caught out if something at longer odds comes in a winner. Whether they would actually be out of pocket with a Leave win, I have no idea. With just two outcomes, I suspect not - it's not exactly the same as a 100/1 horse winning the Grand National, after all...
Although this doesn't actually happen anywhere near as often as Bookies would love people to believe. Every time an outsider wins there's a 'oooh, we took a big hit on that!', which is usually disingenuous, bordering on outright fallacy. They doth protest too much.
Obviously bookmakers are keen to perpetuate the myth that casual/frequent gamblers can beat them on their own terms, which about 99.5% of the time is, of course, impossible. Almost all bets placed with all bookies are -EV to the punter, and if the betting is unbalanced, bookies can and do reduce overexposure on particularly precarious positions by hedging with one another.
Interesting, the 0.5% of the time where bookies are genuinely beaten due to their own mispricing or slowness, you will NEVER hear them pipe up about it.
Just back from voting from Dundee at about 5.20 pm. The people there said turnout is what it usually is.
Same here. Saw my first leafleters today. 2 elderly ladies for remain. They were in a street where English is relegated to 3rd place as a language behind Junkie and Polish.
I'm taking a break from politics for a few hours, and focus on other things
Preparing for the grueling night shift. I have my red bull ready, although it sounds as though it's going to be four hours of talking heads.
I've reached that stage in life where I'll be awake periodically during the night whether I want to or not. I generally wake for reals around 4am at the latest. At least I'll have something to read .
Feel sorry for the buggers who stayed up to watch all the coverage before any announcement was made!
Mr. Scotland, how do you think Scotland will vote? [Most assume Remain, but I meant the margin more than that].
Edited extra bit: Mr. Child, cheers for that info.
I don't know. From discussion in my Edinburgh office, I am surrounded by reluctant remainers. My polling station was busy at 8:45am with pensioners though, which I thought strange.
From my experience in Glasgow, the turnout in Scotland is not going to be high. I voted late afternoon and glancing at the electoral register list, there was barely 1 in 5 of the names crossed out.
Twitter is confusing with a lot of people reporting personal experience of dead polling places while the Leave email about "high Scottish turnout" and a 9am statement from the Chief Returning Officer keep getting re-tweeted. I tend towards the personal experiences getting reported.
I think Remain's hopes for a big boost from Scotland will be quite heavily suppressed due to turnout.
When is the turnout in Glasgow ever high? Even in indyref it had one of the lowest turnouts in Scotland. Outside of the Borders I would guess Glasgow will have one of the highest Brexit votes in Scotland, Edinburgh and Aberdeen will be much more pro Remain, so a low Glasgow turnout is not necessarily terrible news for Remain
True. But for IndyRef the polling place was much busier and there were far more names crossed off at 8am when I voted than there were at 3pm today. For the GE and Scottish elections, again the polling place was far busier with far more names crossed out (both of those I voted late afternoon).
Turnout will obviously not match indyref but who votes at 3pm? Most people vote 5pm onwards if they did not vote first thing in the morning and so you would expect a higher turnout by the time you got to the polls in the general and Scottish elections
Who votes at 3pm?
Mums picking up their kids from school / collecting them from nursery.
London and Kent under a deluge. Got a friend who was due to attend a concert tonight but isn't going into London as he's worried the trains might be screwed for the return leg.
Managed to wade through the waters to vote LEAVE mind ;-)
What's everyone's plans for tonight? I'm planning to get to bed early and then wake up early morning-ish around (4?) to watch the results. What are the first bell-weathers?
I'm taking a break from politics for a few hours, and focus on other things
Preparing for the grueling night shift. I have my red bull ready, although it sounds as though it's going to be four hours of talking heads.
I've reached that stage in life where I'll be awake periodically during the night whether I want to or not. I generally wake for reals around 4am at the latest. At least I'll have something to read .
I'm tempted to take a nap for a hour or so before 10pm. I've been up since 0545 and just had a swig of Red Bull. It's so warm and humid here - it's soul sapping.
What's everyone's plans for tonight? I'm planning to get to bed early and then wake up early morning-ish around (4?) to watch the results. What are the first bell-weathers?
I think thats a bit late. They will be counting this much quicker than a GE as there are only 2 candidates effectively. Im hearing 1.30 onwards.
If they have done their sums right, the larger lost bets on Remain should cover the cost of paying out the winnings to the Leave people (on betfair, since bets are matched, the transfers take place directly between the two sets of punters). Typically however bookmakers tend to do better when the expected happens (favourite wins) and can be caught out if something at longer odds comes in a winner. Whether they would actually be out of pocket with a Leave win, I have no idea. With just two outcomes, I suspect not - it's not exactly the same as a 100/1 horse winning the Grand National, after all...
Although this doesn't actually happen anywhere near as often as Bookies would love people to believe. Every time an outsider wins there's a 'oooh, we took a big hit on that!', which is usually disingenuous, bordering on outright fallacy. They doth protest too much.
Obviously bookmakers are keen to perpetuate the myth that casual/frequent gamblers can beat them on their own terms, which about 99.5% of the time is, of course, impossible. Almost all bets placed with all bookies are -EV to the punter, and if the betting is unbalanced, bookies can and do reduce overexposure on particularly precarious positions by hedging with one another.
Interesting, the 0.5% of the time where bookies are genuinely beaten due to their own mispricing or slowness, you will NEVER hear them pipe up about it.
Memories of the bookies wailing about the couple of dozen 5000/1 bets on Leicester winning the league. No mention of the tens of millions of pounds they took on Chelsea, MC, MU, Arsenal, Spurs, Liverpool and all the other clubs winning the league, that went into their back pockets.
Just back from voting from Dundee at about 5.20 pm. The people there said turnout is what it usually is.
You mean from 1975 or Sindy or AV?
I think compared with other recent elections and referendums.
(Yep - I was being 'jovial'. That wouldn't be a good sign for Remain though, would it, if Scotland is no better than 2015 but England is up. - although 2 constituencies were in the 80% mark)
What's everyone's plans for tonight? I'm planning to get to bed early and then wake up early morning-ish around (4?) to watch the results. What are the first bell-weathers?
(My understanding) Someone here suggested that (I think) Nuneaton would announce their count first at say 2am. If it's an easy win, then perhaps we'll know at 4am. 6am for close, and next week if its a handful of votes.
For those who like conspiracies: Seeing as there is public transport chaos across London it should be worth pointing out that the RMT were strong supporters of Brexit
If they have done their sums right, the larger lost bets on Remain should cover the cost of paying out the winnings to the Leave people (on betfair, since bets are matched, the transfers take place directly between the two sets of punters). Typically however bookmakers tend to do better when the expected happens (favourite wins) and can be caught out if something at longer odds comes in a winner. Whether they would actually be out of pocket with a Leave win, I have no idea. With just two outcomes, I suspect not - it's not exactly the same as a 100/1 horse winning the Grand National, after all...
Although this doesn't actually happen anywhere near as often as Bookies would love people to believe. Every time an outsider wins there's a 'oooh, we took a big hit on that!', which is usually disingenuous, bordering on outright fallacy. They doth protest too much.
Obviously bookmakers are keen to perpetuate the myth that casual/frequent gamblers can beat them on their own terms, which about 99.5% of the time is, of course, impossible. Almost all bets placed with all bookies are -EV to the punter, and if the betting is unbalanced, bookies can and do reduce overexposure on particularly precarious positions by hedging with one another.
Interesting, the 0.5% of the time where bookies are genuinely beaten due to their own mispricing or slowness, you will NEVER hear them pipe up about it.
What's everyone's plans for tonight? I'm planning to get to bed early and then wake up early morning-ish around (4?) to watch the results. What are the first bell-weathers?
I think thats a bit late. They will be counting this much quicker than a GE as there are only 2 candidates effectively. Im hearing 1.30 onwards.
I'm taking a break from politics for a few hours, and focus on other things
Preparing for the grueling night shift. I have my red bull ready, although it sounds as though it's going to be four hours of talking heads.
I'm three hours ahead of UK time. I'll be heading to bed in a couple of hours and will wake up about your 2am to see the meat of the results start to come in.
Stayed up all night last year until Balls and Farage at 10am, not doing that again although it was profitable. Letting the bets run this time, I'm Better than even on Remain and happy on Leave.
London and Kent under a deluge. Got a friend who was due to attend a concert tonight but isn't going into London as he's worried the trains might be screwed for the return leg.
Managed to wade through the waters to vote LEAVE mind ;-)
Did you manage to drown a couple of REMAINERS en route? Every little helps (TIC).
I'm taking a break from politics for a few hours, and focus on other things
Preparing for the grueling night shift. I have my red bull ready, although it sounds as though it's going to be four hours of talking heads.
I've reached that stage in life where I'll be awake periodically during the night whether I want to or not. I generally wake for reals around 4am at the latest. At least I'll have something to read .
I'm tempted to take a nap for a hour or so before 10pm. I've been up since 0545 and just had a swig of Red Bull. It's so warm and humid here - it's soul sapping.
Napped all afternoon, now about to go to the pub for a few and then a curry. Back in time to start shouting at the telly. Probably fall asleep mid-way through the action. Unlike when I was young in '97 and lasted the whole night.
What's the latest anyone's voted? I've arrived at 2130 several times when commuting home late.
Never voted before work - polling stations weren't open before I left.
In 2005 made it by the skin of my teeth after a nightmarish return journey from London. Not sure what time it was, but they were about to shut up shop.
Anecdote: my mother (staunch Conservative, member most of her life, leaning towards Leave but wavering thru the campaign because of Cameron and some of the risks) phoned to say she had voted for Remain. But thinks she is in a reasonably small minority judging from the comments of her neighbours in her semi-sheltered block.
London and Kent under a deluge. Got a friend who was due to attend a concert tonight but isn't going into London as he's worried the trains might be screwed for the return leg.
Managed to wade through the waters to vote LEAVE mind ;-)
Essex also raining buckets, should be Leave heartland. Some Remain campaigners outside Epping tube tonight but we had IDS and Carswell down a fortnight ago. Though as Anorak says the rain should hopefully have passed in an hour or so
From my experience in Glasgow, the turnout in Scotland is not going to be high. I voted late afternoon and glancing at the electoral register list, there was barely 1 in 5 of the names crossed out.
Twitter is confusing with a lot of people reporting personal experience of dead polling places while the Leave email about "high Scottish turnout" and a 9am statement from the Chief Returning Officer keep getting re-tweeted. I tend towards the personal experiences getting reported.
I think Remain's hopes for a big boost from Scotland will be quite heavily suppressed due to turnout.
When is the turnout in Glasgow ever high? Even in indyref it had one of the lowest turnouts in Scotland. Outside of the Borders I would guess Glasgow will have one of the highest Brexit votes in Scotland, Edinburgh and Aberdeen will be much more pro Remain, so a low Glasgow turnout is not necessarily terrible news for Remain
True. But for IndyRef the polling place was much busier and there were far more names crossed off at 8am when I voted than there were at 3pm today. For the GE and Scottish elections, again the polling place was far busier with far more names crossed out (both of those I voted late afternoon).
Turnout will obviously not match indyref but who votes at 3pm? Most people vote 5pm onwards if they did not vote first thing in the morning and so you would expect a higher turnout by the time you got to the polls in the general and Scottish elections
Who votes at 3pm?
Mums picking up their kids from school / collecting them from nursery.
Yes, and a few OAPs, students and the unemployed and that is it. Most voters vote 7-9am or 5-10pm
Just cast my vote in my city centre ward of Edinburgh SW - shocked at the low turnout so far. looked to be no more than 20-25% up to now, way down on 2015GE at roughly the same time.
London and Kent under a deluge. Got a friend who was due to attend a concert tonight but isn't going into London as he's worried the trains might be screwed for the return leg.
Managed to wade through the waters to vote LEAVE mind ;-)
Did you manage to drown a couple of REMAINERS en route? Every little helps (TIC).
BTW all polling stations in the East Riding have raffle tickets to give out at 10pm to those in a queue.
Is this typical?
Eh? You mean they will be allowed to vote if they have a raffle ticket even if past time?
Standard electoral commission rules
"Polling must close at 10pm, but any eligible electors who at 10 pm are in their polling station, or in a queue outside their polling station for the purposes of voting must be allowed to vote."
What's everyone's plans for tonight? I'm planning to get to bed early and then wake up early morning-ish around (4?) to watch the results. What are the first bell-weathers?
I think thats a bit late. They will be counting this much quicker than a GE as there are only 2 candidates effectively. Im hearing 1.30 onwards.
It looks like YouGov is doing a 'proper' exit poll - I saw someone in a YouGov T-shirt talking to voters outside a polling station. Wakefield council area.
BTW all polling stations in the East Riding have raffle tickets to give out at 10pm to those in a queue.
Is this typical?
Eh? You mean they will be allowed to vote if they have a raffle ticket even if past time?
Standard electoral commission rules
"Polling must close at 10pm, but any eligible electors who at 10 pm are in their polling station, or in a queue outside their polling station for the purposes of voting must be allowed to vote."
The FTSE rose back from its lunchtime dip and is now treading water in the out-of-hours market. £/$ is climbing slowly from its lunchtime dip but not back to this morning's level. Things look quiet on the price graphs, but the lags on the trading site suggests that an abnormally large amount of positions are being placed and closed today
BTW all polling stations in the East Riding have raffle tickets to give out at 10pm to those in a queue.
Is this typical?
Eh? You mean they will be allowed to vote if they have a raffle ticket even if past time?
Standard electoral commission rules
"Polling must close at 10pm, but any eligible electors who at 10 pm are in their polling station, or in a queue outside their polling station for the purposes of voting must be allowed to vote."
This could delay counting in some areas by a bit.
Yep, although it depends how much higher turnout is than GE. And not forgetting these are far easier ballots to count.
Just back from voting from Dundee at about 5.20 pm. The people there said turnout is what it usually is.
Same here. Saw my first leafleters today. 2 elderly ladies for remain. They were in a street where English is relegated to 3rd place as a language behind Junkie and Polish.
Just hearing slight suggestions of low turnout in Remain-friendly Edinburgh thus far. Make of it what you will.
I voted at 7.30am but would concur. Nothing like queues. More oldies than anything (good for you, hope it's Leave). Perhaps it got busier later.
I was straight in at 7am, and it was much quieter than a GE, only 2 of us. Normally a few people in there at 7, if its decent weather, which it was.
I wonder what's happening in Glasgow.
sun shining at least
Do you think Glasgow could surprise and be closer than we think?
I think there will be more SNP voters for Leave than expected for sure. I certainly am due to the lies Cameron and chums have been spouting.
You want Scotland to be like Norway? High tax high spend
I don't mind, for me I want a fairer society and not an elite few deciding everything and pocketing all the cash. On almost every indicator the UK is bottom of the heap, an unhappy , obese , ill divided dump. When these robbers are taking 150 times average wage and wrecking the country something is far wrong.
Just back from voting from Dundee at about 5.20 pm. The people there said turnout is what it usually is.
Same here. Saw my first leafleters today. 2 elderly ladies for remain. They were in a street where English is relegated to 3rd place as a language behind Junkie and Polish.
Low turnout in Scotland. Excellent.
Seeing reports that turnout in Catholic areas of NI is low.
Just cast my vote in my city centre ward of Edinburgh SW - shocked at the low turnout so far. looked to be no more than 20-25% up to now, way down on 2015GE at roughly the same time.
BTW all polling stations in the East Riding have raffle tickets to give out at 10pm to those in a queue.
Is this typical?
In Banana republics , Yes
Follows the rule change post-2010 when people in some northern towns turned up at the last minute and were denied the opportunity to participate in Cleggmania due to the queues....
A bit OT.. we were talking about auto balancing on betfair yesterday. If it is done, why isn't the same amount of money available on both Remain and Leave?
Comments
Is this typical?
There were more people there than the ghost town of the PCC election last month, though seemingly less than there were in the 2015 election.
They were in a street where English is relegated to 3rd place as a language behind
Junkie and Polish.
Obviously bookmakers are keen to perpetuate the myth that casual/frequent gamblers can beat them on their own terms, which about 99.5% of the time is, of course, impossible. Almost all bets placed with all bookies are -EV to the punter, and if the betting is unbalanced, bookies can and do reduce overexposure on particularly precarious positions by hedging with one another.
Interesting, the 0.5% of the time where bookies are genuinely beaten due to their own mispricing or slowness, you will NEVER hear them pipe up about it.
Mums picking up their kids from school / collecting them from nursery.
Managed to wade through the waters to vote LEAVE mind ;-)
They will be counting this much quicker than a GE as there are only 2 candidates effectively.
Im hearing 1.30 onwards.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/observation/rainfall-radar
Given how hard Londoners work compared to the rest of you shirkers (joke), that's when we get home, so voting should be ok.
Given the tropical weather, I have just started on the rum. I recommend it to TSE as a tonic, and to all fellow PBers.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/23/referendum-night-when-to-nap-and-the-results-to-watch?CMP=share_btn_tw
Early stuff in NE should give us some clues.
Whereabouts are you Scott?
Stayed up all night last year until Balls and Farage at 10am, not doing that again although it was profitable. Letting the bets run this time, I'm Better than even on Remain and happy on Leave.
Never voted before work - polling stations weren't open before I left.
And as a good Muslim boy, I don't drink alcohol.
"Polling must close at 10pm, but any eligible electors who at 10 pm are in their polling station, or in a queue outside their polling station for the purposes of voting must be allowed to vote."
For an out of London perspective, from @MENnewsdesk https://t.co/1TgxBCFB1s
Civic duty done,
When these robbers are taking 150 times average wage and wrecking the country something is far wrong.
Let me just go and see if I can change my vote...
http://order-order.com/2016/06/23/referendum-day-cchq-leak/