politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why the betting has often seemed so out of line with the po
Comments
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They do need it if they can't get home from work.Omnium said:
Noone needs the transport network to vote in London. It'll be a short walk.kle4 said:
Unfortunate if people cannot vote, but how many could have voted earlier? Not all would needed to have waited, although some would have.Jobabob said:Leave will win if Londoners can't get back home to vote. The flooding on the transport network is like some sort of sick joke.
Sorry, I am panicking probably.0 -
Stakes are going to be higher on a 3s on jolly than a 3-1 shot because of the returns. Nothing to do with the wealth of the punter.David_Evershed said:Ladbrokes gave the reason for the betting odds being more in favour of REMAIN is that the average REMAIN bet was over £400 but the average leave bet was under £100.
Rich people are inclined to bet REMAIN and poor people are inclined to bet LEAVE, probably because that is their experience amongst the people they know.0 -
MarqueeMark said:
But...two at once needed evacuating? What is this - The Thing?Sandpit said:Way off topic, today's good news story:
Two sick workers evacuated safely from the South Pole research station, after a massive rescue mission.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jun/21/antarctica-polar-rescue-planes-medical-emergency
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Weren't you telling me not to worry about the weather this morning?Jobabob said:Leave will win if Londoners can't get back home to vote. The flooding on the transport network is like some sort of sick joke.
Very relaxed about my Leave betting position currently. It'll be close but they'll get over the line.
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I don't think we've been in the EEC for a few years. It's certainly what Britain voted to join last time, but now we're in the EU (at time of writing!).theakes said:Morris Dancer.You have summed it up "I guess". Nobody knows. Somebody said Warrington is a big Leave area, news to me. Consderable commuter belt in all directions, on the main line, M6, key industrial base for European firms etc, I used to work there. Really no - one knows.
I live in the West Midlands and can only report that mothers at my grand daughters school in a less affluent area of the town, are heavily voting to Remain, (according to my daughter), apparently they all chat at the school gate. Me I have no personal idea or knowledge and await the outcome. I voted almost 3 weeks ago Remain, but have a bet on leave at 3-1. I have no idea at all whether I will be calling to collect tomorrow or not.
Whatever happens we are in the EEC tomorrow, next week, next month, next year, even the year after, maybe even at the 2020 election. If Leave win, events usually take over and will we ever Leave, it has to be a big question. We may well look back in 2 years time and wonder what on earth was that all about!!!!!!0 -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yRh-dzrI4Z4TheScreamingEagles said:Sunil has just texted me he's just voted in Ilford
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If only we were in the EEC tomorrow, I think many would be more relaxed than being in the EU!theakes said:Morris Dancer.You have summed it up "I guess". Nobody knows. Somebody said Warrington is a big Leave area, news to me. Consderable commuter belt in all directions, on the main line, M6, key industrial base for European firms etc, I used to work there. Really no - one knows.
I live in the West Midlands and can only report that mothers at my grand daughters school in a less affluent area of the town, are heavily voting to Remain, (according to my daughter), apparently they all chat at the school gate. Me I have no personal idea or knowledge and await the outcome. I voted almost 3 weeks ago Remain, but have a bet on leave at 3-1. I have no idea at all whether I will be calling to collect tomorrow or not.
Whatever happens we are in the EEC tomorrow, next week, next month, next year, even the year after, maybe even at the 2020 election. If Leave win, events usually take over and will we ever Leave, it has to be a big question. We may well look back in 2 years time and wonder what on earth was that all about!!!!!!0 -
To add to that, in a two horse race the bookie doesn't price the two outcomes the inverse of each other. So if leave is 4/1, remain won't be at 1/4, rather it will be at 1/5 or 1/6. This difference is called the overround and is the bookmaker's profit if he has similar liabilities for both outcomes. It also means as a punter that you can't win by betting on both outcomes at the same time.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You are enlightening me - thanks - interestingIanB2 said:
If they have done their sums right, the larger lost bets on Remain should cover the cost of paying out the winnings to the Leave people (on betfair, since bets are matched, the transfers take place directly between the two sets of punters). Typically however bookmakers tend to do better when the expected happens (favourite wins) and can be caught out if something at longer odds comes in a winner. Whether they would actually be out of pocket with a Leave win, I have no idea. With just two outcomes, I suspect not - it's not exactly the same as a 100/1 horse winning the Grand National, after all...Big_G_NorthWales said:
Thanks for that - so if leave win do the bookies loseIanB2 said:
Because a narrow lead in the polls translates into a reasonably high probability of having more votes than the other sideBig_G_NorthWales said:How can remain be 84% - 16% - and what happens to bets if leave wins - (I don't bet or really understand it)
The bets on remain are all lost and the people who have backed leave buy us all lots of drinks
The strategy followed by most is to watch the variations in price over time, and time your bets accordingly for the best value. So earlier today, Leave was at 7/1 so I bet on it. I didn't bet on Remain today though, I bet on remain last week when it was 4/6 (1/1.5) - so this combination of bets is guaranteed to win on either result. 0 -
I drove all night, to get to EUJobabob said:
They do need it if they can't get home from work.Omnium said:
Noone needs the transport network to vote in London. It'll be a short walk.kle4 said:
Unfortunate if people cannot vote, but how many could have voted earlier? Not all would needed to have waited, although some would have.Jobabob said:Leave will win if Londoners can't get back home to vote. The flooding on the transport network is like some sort of sick joke.
Sorry, I am panicking probably.0 -
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My fellow Londoners, take a brolly and get to the polling station. Stop being lazy f**ckers!!0
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The original story that the The Thing is based on was written in 1938. Way ahead of its time.PlatoSaid said:MarqueeMark said:
But...two at once needed evacuating? What is this - The Thing?Sandpit said:Way off topic, today's good news story:
Two sick workers evacuated safely from the South Pole research station, after a massive rescue mission.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jun/21/antarctica-polar-rescue-planes-medical-emergency0 -
Look around again. Those not wearing any badge have voted Leave....murali_s said:Here in Central London, it's 100% Remain, not a Leave poster / badge / volunteer in sight.
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Chief returning officer claming 70-80% turnout across Scotland. Would be weird if the Weeg turned out and Edinburgh didn't, but there's nowt so unpredictable as Scottish Politics.Luckyguy1983 said:
I wonder what's happening in Glasgow.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
I was straight in at 7am, and it was much quieter than a GE, only 2 of us. Normally a few people in there at 7, if its decent weather, which it was.Luckyguy1983 said:
I voted at 7.30am but would concur. Nothing like queues. More oldies than anything (good for you, hope it's Leave). Perhaps it got busier later.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Just hearing slight suggestions of low turnout in Remain-friendly Edinburgh thus far. Make of it what you will.
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Don't worry voting will be extended in the same way registration was... If you are REMAIN you can vote tomorrow...Jobabob said:
They do need it if they can't get home from work.Omnium said:
Noone needs the transport network to vote in London. It'll be a short walk.kle4 said:
Unfortunate if people cannot vote, but how many could have voted earlier? Not all would needed to have waited, although some would have.Jobabob said:Leave will win if Londoners can't get back home to vote. The flooding on the transport network is like some sort of sick joke.
Sorry, I am panicking probably.0 -
I live 200 yards from the polling station - but won't vote because I made a promise.
From what I hear, London is really catching it pluvial-wise - hope no one is hurt and all there is is inconvenience.
(I gather the thunderstorms are scheduled to end at 10.00pm - TIC)0 -
Or men?David_Evershed said:
Old people have umbrellas but do young people?KentRising said:Northwest Kent (and presumbly south London at least) is suffering a complete deluge.
It's as dark as night.0 -
And that is what is known as a 'crafty aftertime'Sandpit said:
The strategy followed by most is to watch the variations in price over time, and time your bets accordingly for the best value. So earlier today, Leave was at 7/1 so I bet on it. I didn't bet on Remain today though, I bet on remain last week when it was 4/6 (1/1.5) - so this combination of bets is guaranteed to win on either result. 0 -
Glad to hear he made it. Did he need to swim?TheScreamingEagles said:Sunil has just texted me he's just voted in Ilford
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When you listen to the lyrics of that song, it could be about your worst stalker nightmare....williamglenn said:
I drove all night, to get to EUJobabob said:
They do need it if they can't get home from work.Omnium said:
Noone needs the transport network to vote in London. It'll be a short walk.kle4 said:
Unfortunate if people cannot vote, but how many could have voted earlier? Not all would needed to have waited, although some would have.Jobabob said:Leave will win if Londoners can't get back home to vote. The flooding on the transport network is like some sort of sick joke.
Sorry, I am panicking probably.0 -
Hope everyone is able to vote who can today (genuinely)0
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Someone mentioned railway stuff. You may enjoy this video [I'm not a rail enthusiast, so can't be sure]:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C12aycIepqA0 -
Just voted. With very little enthusiasm, it has to be said.
Very quiet for an inner London polling station at 5 PM. Didn't see any voters coming out and only one coming in as I was leaving.
Raining, but not that heavily. A bigger factor may be that there are major building and roadworks which completely cut off the polling station from mosr of the electors. Most will have to take a highly circuitous and counter-intuitive route to get there, so may give up/not bother. Certainly the least convenient polling station I've ever had to vote in, and three times in barely a year.0 -
My nomination for a song that has aged extremely poorly is Rod Stewart's 'Tonight's the Night'. Lyrics are definitely a bit squeeMarqueeMark said:
When you listen to the lyrics of that song, it could be about your worst stalker nightmare....williamglenn said:
I drove all night, to get to EUJobabob said:
They do need it if they can't get home from work.Omnium said:
Noone needs the transport network to vote in London. It'll be a short walk.kle4 said:
Unfortunate if people cannot vote, but how many could have voted earlier? Not all would needed to have waited, although some would have.Jobabob said:Leave will win if Londoners can't get back home to vote. The flooding on the transport network is like some sort of sick joke.
Sorry, I am panicking probably.0 -
And you're quite right in your point. No need to panic - we pay our politicians to be doing that.Jobabob said:
They do need it if they can't get home from work.Omnium said:
Noone needs the transport network to vote in London. It'll be a short walk.kle4 said:
Unfortunate if people cannot vote, but how many could have voted earlier? Not all would needed to have waited, although some would have.Jobabob said:Leave will win if Londoners can't get back home to vote. The flooding on the transport network is like some sort of sick joke.
Sorry, I am panicking probably.
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My book is currently sitting at £1k clean no matter what happens tonight...
Tempted to take half of that and stick it on Leave victory though, the odds seem tempting right now giving what we are hearing.0 -
Do you really mean that, Mr Borough?rottenborough said:YouGove have an interactive tool:.
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Crikey, Big G, please don't tell me you thought that bookies odds actually relate to what the bookie think the outcome will be!Big_G_NorthWales said:
Thanks for that - so if leave win do the bookies loseIanB2 said:
Because a narrow lead in the polls translates into a reasonably high probability of having more votes than the other sideBig_G_NorthWales said:How can remain be 84% - 16% - and what happens to bets if leave wins - (I don't bet or really understand it)
The bets on remain are all lost and the people who have backed leave buy us all lots of drinks0 -
A mate of mine flew back from Spain to vote.Sandpit said:
Another one for the short list, well done to him.Alanbrooke said:
My brother flew back from Germany last night to vote.Sandpit said:
Well done Sunil, provisional winner of the best trip to the polling station award 2016. Has anyone else gone way out of their way to manage to vote today?TheScreamingEagles said:Sunil has just texted me he's just voted in Ilford
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We have a young water-soluble gardener, who won't appear if there is a hint of precipitation in the air. Doesn't stop his dad turning up though. Make of that what you will....David_Evershed said:
Old people have umbrellas but do young people?KentRising said:Northwest Kent (and presumbly south London at least) is suffering a complete deluge.
It's as dark as night.0 -
From my experience in Glasgow, the turnout in Scotland is not going to be high. I voted late afternoon and glancing at the electoral register list, there was barely 1 in 5 of the names crossed out.
Twitter is confusing with a lot of people reporting personal experience of dead polling places while the Leave email about "high Scottish turnout" and a9amstatement from the Chief Returning Officer keep getting re-tweeted. I tend towards the personal experiences getting reported. Edit - it seems the statement was reported at 5pm not 9am. I am very surprised if this is correct because it doesn't seem to tally with real experiences.
I think Remain's hopes for a big boost from Scotland will be quite heavily suppressed due to turnout.0 -
Er have you seen the ques in London, they aint Leave votersSouthamObserver said:
Weren't you telling me not to worry about the weather this morning?Jobabob said:Leave will win if Londoners can't get back home to vote. The flooding on the transport network is like some sort of sick joke.
Very relaxed about my Leave betting position currently. It'll be close but they'll get over the line.0 -
You know me well but you could have been nice and said mature , but no-one but no-one tells me how to voteFF43 said:
I don't know if they are shy but there are definitely leavers in the SNP. Mostly they will be the older ones who would have voted Tory if they didn't think Scotland should be independent, and for the same reasons their counterparts in other parts of the UK think we should be out. Then there is the Jim Sillars provisional nationalist wing who think the UK getting out of the EU will get Scotland out of the UK quicker. Having said all that, SNP voters are probably more inclined to vote in a particular way because their party told them to than any other voters.MarqueeMark said:
Isn't there SOME risk of shy-Leavers in the SNP ranks. Don't want to go against the leadership in public, but know that Leave gives the best chance of another Referendum to get out the UK?FF43 said:
Not very busy when I voted but, interestingly, numbers of late twenties/thirty somethings. The demographic that voted Yes in Indyref and presumably will vote Remain this timeLuckyguy1983 said:
I voted at 7.30am but would concur. Nothing like queues. More oldies than anything (good for you, hope it's Leave). Perhaps it got busier later.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Just hearing slight suggestions of low turnout in Remain-friendly Edinburgh thus far. Make of it what you will.
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Any sign of (financial) market moves inspired by private exit polls?0
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Perhaps a dangerous assumption, but I guess she should know what she's talking about.
https://twitter.com/libby_brooks/status/7460155450032824320 -
That man would have voted Leave if he'd had to bridge the mighty Zambezi to do so!AnneJGP said:
Glad to hear he made it. Did he need to swim?TheScreamingEagles said:Sunil has just texted me he's just voted in Ilford
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Time to do that most dangerous of things...
Search tw@tter for turnout anecdote !0 -
sun shining at leastLuckyguy1983 said:
I wonder what's happening in Glasgow.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
I was straight in at 7am, and it was much quieter than a GE, only 2 of us. Normally a few people in there at 7, if its decent weather, which it was.Luckyguy1983 said:
I voted at 7.30am but would concur. Nothing like queues. More oldies than anything (good for you, hope it's Leave). Perhaps it got busier later.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Just hearing slight suggestions of low turnout in Remain-friendly Edinburgh thus far. Make of it what you will.
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You will have to put up with my total lack of knowledge of betting. Maybe if I understood it I could make some money, but it is a big maybeHurstLlama said:
Crikey, Big G, please don't tell me you thought that bookies odds actually relate to what the bookie think the outcome will be!Big_G_NorthWales said:
Thanks for that - so if leave win do the bookies loseIanB2 said:
Because a narrow lead in the polls translates into a reasonably high probability of having more votes than the other sideBig_G_NorthWales said:How can remain be 84% - 16% - and what happens to bets if leave wins - (I don't bet or really understand it)
The bets on remain are all lost and the people who have backed leave buy us all lots of drinks0 -
Only 4 hours of voting to go...
This is tense. I've never cared more about the result of an election.0 -
Polls open till 10, besides if enough can't get home to the suburbs than Cameron will order them to stay open longer, I think we have already seen he won't fight fair.Jobabob said:
They do need it if they can't get home from work.Omnium said:
Noone needs the transport network to vote in London. It'll be a short walk.kle4 said:
Unfortunate if people cannot vote, but how many could have voted earlier? Not all would needed to have waited, although some would have.Jobabob said:Leave will win if Londoners can't get back home to vote. The flooding on the transport network is like some sort of sick joke.
Sorry, I am panicking probably.0 -
"Who goes there"John_M said:
The original story that the The Thing is based on was written in 1938. Way ahead of its time.PlatoSaid said:MarqueeMark said:
But...two at once needed evacuating? What is this - The Thing?Sandpit said:Way off topic, today's good news story:
Two sick workers evacuated safely from the South Pole research station, after a massive rescue mission.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jun/21/antarctica-polar-rescue-planes-medical-emergency
Funnily enough the author is probably little known for his writing but as editor of the great magazines of the Golden Age of Sci-Fi is undoubtedly the most influential man in the history of the genre. One of my literary heroes.0 -
Fookin Labour are getting on my tits seem to be putting more effort into REMAIN than a GE. TWO leaflets through door today FFS. FIVE Emails too.0
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@MarqueeMark It's not quite as stalkerish as "Until You Come Back To Me (That's What I'm Gonna Do)".0
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Just back from voting from Dundee at about 5.20 pm. The people there said turnout is what it usually is.0
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Women a little more risk averse and so a little more against LEAVE and for REMAIN.
Women live longer and are thus older on average. Older people are more pro LEAVE.
Will these factors cancel out?
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Jon Gaunt has declared for "leave". Must say that has surprised me somewhat.0
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When is the turnout in Glasgow ever high? Even in indyref it had one of the lowest turnouts in Scotland. Outside of the Borders I would guess Glasgow will have one of the highest Brexit votes in Scotland, Edinburgh and Aberdeen will be much more pro Remain, so a low Glasgow turnout is not necessarily terrible news for RemainLowlander said:From my experience in Glasgow, the turnout in Scotland is not going to be high. I voted late afternoon and glancing at the electoral register list, there was barely 1 in 5 of the names crossed out.
Twitter is confusing with a lot of people reporting personal experience of dead polling places while the Leave email about "high Scottish turnout" and a 9am statement from the Chief Returning Officer keep getting re-tweeted. I tend towards the personal experiences getting reported.
I think Remain's hopes for a big boost from Scotland will be quite heavily suppressed due to turnout.0 -
Do you think Glasgow could surprise and be closer than we think?malcolmg said:
sun shining at leastLuckyguy1983 said:
I wonder what's happening in Glasgow.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
I was straight in at 7am, and it was much quieter than a GE, only 2 of us. Normally a few people in there at 7, if its decent weather, which it was.Luckyguy1983 said:
I voted at 7.30am but would concur. Nothing like queues. More oldies than anything (good for you, hope it's Leave). Perhaps it got busier later.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Just hearing slight suggestions of low turnout in Remain-friendly Edinburgh thus far. Make of it what you will.
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Rest assured the leavers will wade through the Floodwater to vote.Big_G_NorthWales said:
There was a property owner on Sky in Essex under water and at one time up the knee. If this is happening over leave's strongest area will that cause a problem for leave or remainKentRising said:Northwest Kent (and presumbly south London at least) is suffering a complete deluge.
It's as dark as night.0 -
How about 'You're Sixteen' originally by Johnny Burnette and then Ringo Starr who had a US number 1 with it in 1974.John_M said:
My nomination for a song that has aged extremely poorly is Rod Stewart's 'Tonight's the Night'. Lyrics are definitely a bit squeeMarqueeMark said:
When you listen to the lyrics of that song, it could be about your worst stalker nightmare....williamglenn said:
I drove all night, to get to EUJobabob said:
They do need it if they can't get home from work.Omnium said:
Noone needs the transport network to vote in London. It'll be a short walk.kle4 said:
Unfortunate if people cannot vote, but how many could have voted earlier? Not all would needed to have waited, although some would have.Jobabob said:Leave will win if Londoners can't get back home to vote. The flooding on the transport network is like some sort of sick joke.
Sorry, I am panicking probably.0 -
https://twitter.com/sunny_hundal/status/746022887774109696Pulpstar said:Time to do that most dangerous of things...
Search tw@tter for turnout anecdote !
https://twitter.com/sunny_hundal/status/7460243678013767680 -
I remember discovering John Campbell based on all the wonderful things that Isaac Asimov wrote about him in 'The Early Asimov'. He was, as you say, a giant figure.Richard_Tyndall said:
"Who goes there"John_M said:
The original story that the The Thing is based on was written in 1938. Way ahead of its time.PlatoSaid said:MarqueeMark said:
But...two at once needed evacuating? What is this - The Thing?Sandpit said:Way off topic, today's good news story:
Two sick workers evacuated safely from the South Pole research station, after a massive rescue mission.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jun/21/antarctica-polar-rescue-planes-medical-emergency
Funnily enough the author is probably little known for his writing but as editor of the great magazines of the Golden Age of Sci-Fi is undoubtedly the most influential man in the history of the genre. One of my literary heroes.0 -
We'll put you down as REMAIN then.bigjohnowls said:Fookin Labour are getting on my tits seem to be putting more effort into REMAIN than a GE. TWO leaflets through door today FFS. FIVE Emails too.
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Expecting?TheScreamingEagles said:
twitter.com/sunny_hundal/status/746022887774109696Pulpstar said:Time to do that most dangerous of things...
Search tw@tter for turnout anecdote !
twitter.com/sunny_hundal/status/746024367801376768
Maybe everyone voted early cause of the rain
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Ms Scrap advises her school referendum saw Remain triumph - 83.7% to 14.4% (rest DKd)0
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Mr. Glenn, it's certainly full of suspense.0
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Absolute monsoon in Blackfriars. Got train home walked to polling station and came out to absolute monsoon again over 40 miles away and got drenched.
My 6-1 Leave betting slip is ok though
As I went up the footbridge at the station after getting off the train a kid said to his dad "What will happen if World War 3 starts tomorrow
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Yes. Good one. Hmm. Ah well, o tempora o mores I supposeGravitation said:
How about 'You're Sixteen' originally by Johnny Burnette and then Ringo Starr who had a US number 1 with it in 1974.John_M said:
My nomination for a song that has aged extremely poorly is Rod Stewart's 'Tonight's the Night'. Lyrics are definitely a bit squeeMarqueeMark said:
When you listen to the lyrics of that song, it could be about your worst stalker nightmare....williamglenn said:
I drove all night, to get to EUJobabob said:
They do need it if they can't get home from work.Omnium said:
Noone needs the transport network to vote in London. It'll be a short walk.kle4 said:
Unfortunate if people cannot vote, but how many could have voted earlier? Not all would needed to have waited, although some would have.Jobabob said:Leave will win if Londoners can't get back home to vote. The flooding on the transport network is like some sort of sick joke.
Sorry, I am panicking probably.. 0 -
Things are rarely so bad in London that people (who finish work late afternoon/early evening) cant get home by 10pm. The risk, I guess, is that after a miserable journey they don't feel like voting.rottenborough said:Will we see polling stations opened for longer in flooded parts of London?
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I am moving to Bolsover!!!David_Evershed said:
We'll put you down as REMAIN then.bigjohnowls said:Fookin Labour are getting on my tits seem to be putting more effort into REMAIN than a GE. TWO leaflets through door today FFS. FIVE Emails too.
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For those who like conspiracies:
Seeing as there is public transport chaos across London it should be worth pointing out that the RMT were strong supporters of Brexit0 -
I'm almost 100% sure that there is no predictive power in financial markets now besides the obvious - big companies will be big tomorrow etc.Jonathan said:Any sign of (financial) market moves inspired by private exit polls?
If I was still in that industry I'd be thinking about when to buy GBP in the event of Leave. It turns out perhaps that everyone is thinking the same. So simply buy now, but that's too obvious so sell now.. You get the idea. The truth is out there, but it doesn't really pay just at the moment.
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If lots of people cannot get home to have their meal and vote due to the whims of nature then that is surely a reason for a re - run!! Definately woth a Court case.0
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simplesPaul_Bedfordshire said:Absolute monsoon in Blackfriars. Got train home walked to polling station and came out to absolute monsoon again over 40 miles away and got drenched.
My 6-1 Leave betting slip is ok though
As I went up the footbridge at the station after getting off the train a kid said to his dad "What will happen if World War 3 starts tomorrow
George Osborne will up your taxes and slash your pension.
It's just all good news with Remain0 -
Mr. Eagles, still worried Leave will win?0
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They have the money remember...its the backing thats helping thembigjohnowls said:Fookin Labour are getting on my tits seem to be putting more effort into REMAIN than a GE. TWO leaflets through door today FFS. FIVE Emails too.
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Remain were again outside the tubes this morning and again nobody from Leave, both sides just focusing on their core vote at this stagekle4 said:Returned from work to find a couple of young VoteLeavers pushing leaflets through letterboxes - definitely working harder than Remain, which I'm still surprised about, given the effort the local LDs put in to win the seat in 2015.
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True. But for IndyRef the polling place was much busier and there were far more names crossed off at 8am when I voted than there were at 3pm today. For the GE and Scottish elections, again the polling place was far busier with far more names crossed out (both of those I voted late afternoon).HYUFD said:
When is the turnout in Glasgow ever high? Even in indyref it had one of the lowest turnouts in Scotland. Outside of the Borders I would guess Glasgow will have one of the highest Brexit votes in Scotland, Edinburgh and Aberdeen will be much more pro Remain, so a low Glasgow turnout is not necessarily terrible news for RemainLowlander said:From my experience in Glasgow, the turnout in Scotland is not going to be high. I voted late afternoon and glancing at the electoral register list, there was barely 1 in 5 of the names crossed out.
Twitter is confusing with a lot of people reporting personal experience of dead polling places while the Leave email about "high Scottish turnout" and a 9am statement from the Chief Returning Officer keep getting re-tweeted. I tend towards the personal experiences getting reported.
I think Remain's hopes for a big boost from Scotland will be quite heavily suppressed due to turnout.0 -
Finger on the pulse of the nation.Pulpstar said:David Coburn MEP @DavidCoburnUKip 2m2 minutes ago
Glastonbury Festival on today0 -
It's known as a green book! I'm about £50 up if Remain wins and £750 if Leave does. Couldn't resist that 8.2 on Betfair for leave earlier today.Pulpstar said:
And that is what is known as a 'crafty aftertime'Sandpit said:
The strategy followed by most is to watch the variations in price over time, and time your bets accordingly for the best value. So earlier today, Leave was at 7/1 so I bet on it. I didn't bet on Remain today though, I bet on remain last week when it was 4/6 (1/1.5) - so this combination of bets is guaranteed to win on either result.0 -
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/newsbeat/article/35874778/glastonbury-wants-you-to-vote-by-post-in-eu-referendum
"In an article for the Guardian Emily said "That certainly does not mean that the people coming can't - or shouldn't - vote on 23 June.
"The day that the referendum date was announced, we began our campaign to encourage everyone coming to the festival to register for either a postal vote (which is what I've done) or a proxy vote (where you nominate someone to do it for you)."
She says they're e-mailing every ticket-holder details on how to vote."
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"Take Good Care of my Baby" by Bobby Vee?Gravitation said:
How about 'You're Sixteen' originally by Johnny Burnette and then Ringo Starr who had a US number 1 with it in 1974.John_M said:
My nomination for a song that has aged extremely poorly is Rod Stewart's 'Tonight's the Night'. Lyrics are definitely a bit squeeMarqueeMark said:
When you listen to the lyrics of that song, it could be about your worst stalker nightmare....williamglenn said:
I drove all night, to get to EUJobabob said:
They do need it if they can't get home from work.Omnium said:
Noone needs the transport network to vote in London. It'll be a short walk.kle4 said:
Unfortunate if people cannot vote, but how many could have voted earlier? Not all would needed to have waited, although some would have.Jobabob said:Leave will win if Londoners can't get back home to vote. The flooding on the transport network is like some sort of sick joke.
Sorry, I am panicking probably.
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But my point was this is a LD voting area, is that not worth effort locally for remain?HYUFD said:
Remain were again outside the tubes this morning and again nobody from Leave, both sides just focusing on their core vote at this stagekle4 said:Returned from work to find a couple of young VoteLeavers pushing leaflets through letterboxes - definitely working harder than Remain, which I'm still surprised about, given the effort the local LDs put in to win the seat in 2015.
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No as if Leave led most of the final polls even more undecided would have to switch to Remain for them to win than if Remain ledChameleon said:Hmm I still think that Leave will win, however if the polls had been more accurate and predicted a leave win then remain may have edged it IMO (as more apathetic remains would have turned out). Should be a very interesting few months after the referendum as we analyse how and why the polls and betting markets were so far off.
Turnout is looking high whenever I've had a chance to see.0 -
Jobabob said:
Leave will win if Londoners can't get back home to vote. The flooding on the transport network is like some sort of sick joke.
This was DC Metro yesterday:
http://gizmodo.com/watch-this-apocalyptic-timelapse-of-the-dc-metro-flood-17824535010 -
I voted this morning. My better half is off to vote shortly. We are cancelling each other out. Neither can convince the other. My argument is democracy, hers economics. Classic English v Scottish stereotype.0
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Mr. kle4, being born in a stable doesn't make a man a horse.0
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I think there will be more SNP voters for Leave than expected for sure. I certainly am due to the lies Cameron and chums have been spouting.nunu said:
Do you think Glasgow could surprise and be closer than we think?malcolmg said:
sun shining at leastLuckyguy1983 said:
I wonder what's happening in Glasgow.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
I was straight in at 7am, and it was much quieter than a GE, only 2 of us. Normally a few people in there at 7, if its decent weather, which it was.Luckyguy1983 said:
I voted at 7.30am but would concur. Nothing like queues. More oldies than anything (good for you, hope it's Leave). Perhaps it got busier later.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Just hearing slight suggestions of low turnout in Remain-friendly Edinburgh thus far. Make of it what you will.
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are you in Sutton as wellkle4 said:
But my point was this is a LD voting area, is that not worth effort locally for remain?HYUFD said:
Remain were again outside the tubes this morning and again nobody from Leave, both sides just focusing on their core vote at this stagekle4 said:Returned from work to find a couple of young VoteLeavers pushing leaflets through letterboxes - definitely working harder than Remain, which I'm still surprised about, given the effort the local LDs put in to win the seat in 2015.
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Brief anecdote alert while a grab some food and a slim ray of light.
Our 2 WWC wards passed their 2015 GE turnout level at 430pm today. People are still streaming in. Lots of first time voters.
No idea if this is typical across the country but here the WWC are turning out.
Must eat and then back out.
Heads down, shoulders to the wheel get our vote out and we can do this.
Chin chin.
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Save All Your Kisses For Me - Brotherhood of Man.No_Offence_Alan said:
"Take Good Care of my Baby" by Bobby Vee?Gravitation said:
How about 'You're Sixteen' originally by Johnny Burnette and then Ringo Starr who had a US number 1 with it in 1974.John_M said:
My nomination for a song that has aged extremely poorly is Rod Stewart's 'Tonight's the Night'. Lyrics are definitely a bit squeeMarqueeMark said:
When you listen to the lyrics of that song, it could be about your worst stalker nightmare....williamglenn said:
I drove all night, to get to EUJobabob said:
They do need it if they can't get home from work.Omnium said:
Noone needs the transport network to vote in London. It'll be a short walk.kle4 said:
Unfortunate if people cannot vote, but how many could have voted earlier? Not all would needed to have waited, although some would have.Jobabob said:Leave will win if Londoners can't get back home to vote. The flooding on the transport network is like some sort of sick joke.
Sorry, I am panicking probably.0 -
That's pretty much what I said.HYUFD said:
No as if Leave led most of the final polls even more undecided would have to switch to Remain for them to win than if Remain ledChameleon said:Hmm I still think that Leave will win, however if the polls had been more accurate and predicted a leave win then remain may have edged it IMO (as more apathetic remains would have turned out). Should be a very interesting few months after the referendum as we analyse how and why the polls and betting markets were so far off.
Turnout is looking high whenever I've had a chance to see.
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Mr. Scotland, how do you think Scotland will vote? [Most assume Remain, but I meant the margin more than that].
Edited extra bit: Mr. Child, cheers for that info.0 -
Darkest Wiltshire, but in a LD run town.timmo said:
are you in Sutton as wellkle4 said:
But my point was this is a LD voting area, is that not worth effort locally for remain?HYUFD said:
Remain were again outside the tubes this morning and again nobody from Leave, both sides just focusing on their core vote at this stagekle4 said:Returned from work to find a couple of young VoteLeavers pushing leaflets through letterboxes - definitely working harder than Remain, which I'm still surprised about, given the effort the local LDs put in to win the seat in 2015.
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Until a year ago those SNP voters were Labour voters . . .malcolmg said:
I think there will be more SNP voters for Leave than expected for sure. I certainly am due to the lies Cameron and chums have been spouting.nunu said:
Do you think Glasgow could surprise and be closer than we think?malcolmg said:
sun shining at leastLuckyguy1983 said:
I wonder what's happening in Glasgow.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
I was straight in at 7am, and it was much quieter than a GE, only 2 of us. Normally a few people in there at 7, if its decent weather, which it was.Luckyguy1983 said:
I voted at 7.30am but would concur. Nothing like queues. More oldies than anything (good for you, hope it's Leave). Perhaps it got busier later.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Just hearing slight suggestions of low turnout in Remain-friendly Edinburgh thus far. Make of it what you will.
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I'm always worried on election day.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, still worried Leave will win?
I'm taking a break from politics for a few hours, and focus on other things0 -
In the provinces, City of London and Westminster is a safe Tory seat but in London. Whether a seat is in a big city or a market town is a much better indication of referendum voting than which party holds itkle4 said:
But my point was this is a LD voting area, is that not worth effort locally for remain?HYUFD said:
Remain were again outside the tubes this morning and again nobody from Leave, both sides just focusing on their core vote at this stagekle4 said:Returned from work to find a couple of young VoteLeavers pushing leaflets through letterboxes - definitely working harder than Remain, which I'm still surprised about, given the effort the local LDs put in to win the seat in 2015.
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It'll give the escalators/stairs a good clean I guess!MTimT said:Jobabob said:Leave will win if Londoners can't get back home to vote. The flooding on the transport network is like some sort of sick joke.
This was DC Metro yesterday:
http://gizmodo.com/watch-this-apocalyptic-timelapse-of-the-dc-metro-flood-17824535010 -
Evening all.
Civic and Patriotic duty complete
Turnout described as "good". 10 pages of voter list compared to 3 for a normal election0
