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My recollection is that it cannot be within the precinct of the polling station - i.e. the boundary of the churchyard, school, or whatever. There is nothing to stop someone living opposite turning their whole house into a giant poster site if they want.kle4 said:By the by, is there a rule on how far away any election material has to be from a polling station. Passed anofficial banner about 100 yards (by foot, less as the crow flies,it was on a fence circling it) outside my polling station.
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Leaving aside whether this would be the right thing to do, how is article 50 invoked?TheScreamingEagles said:
I've urged Dave to do this in the event of a Leave victory.Mortimer said:
'Spose.AlastairMeeks said:@Mortimer There's a base percentage of people in polls who think that X should resign no matter what the reason. In that context, only 40% wanting the Prime Minister to resign if Leave win is surprisingly low.
I can't see him hanging around too long in the event of a Leave win, mind.
TBH if Leave win, I wouldn't necessarily want him to resign straight away. Announce his intention to, sure, but not actually go to the palace.
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/745731968025911296/photo/1
Order in council? Doesn't that need a meeting of PC?0 -
Good for you, old chap. Always nice to have a free bottle of something decent.IanB2 said:BTW belated thanks to whoever it was that tipped Higher Power at Kempton Park on here yesterday - I know nothing about horse racing but as the tip came my way I risked a few £, and as a 9/2 winner I now have enough to buy a nice bottle of wine for this evening....
A few years ago this site used to be uncommonly good for racing tips. I had a superb day at Goodwood and my best ever day at the races, solely based on one chap on here giving me the winners in the first three races and if, memory serves, the second in the 5th.
Alas as PoliticalBetting morphed into Political Discusssion those knowledgeable punters have moved on. Though for me it is not to much of a problem (when I retired my wife made me promise only to do cash bets, failing eyesight means I can't get to the races much and the nearest bookies is a bus ride away), but it is a shame for you active chaps.0 -
I walked down Highgate Road to Kentish Town tube statin this morning. Remain posters everywhere - in the windows of the big £2 million houses and the council flats - and a big team outside the station itself. Much more activity than at the general election. If you lived in that part of London you could be forgiven for believing that Remain is going to walk this.
Living in the Midlands has given me a much better perspective on English political outlooks. I love London, but it operates in such a bubble. It really is a different country, clichéd as that sounds.0 -
For the first time in my polling station (local library) they had two desks, one for streets in the first half of the alphabet, one in the second. Clearly anticipating demand - must be costing the council more than usual if repeated throughout the borough, or does central govt fund the costs?Roger said:Just voted. Remain people everywhere. They say the polling is 'Significantly higher' than the GE
Just put a bet on 70-80% even money0 -
Long time lurker, I used to post occasionally about 5years ago.
Anecdote alert!
Anecdote #1: Rural village in Buckinghamshire voting in prime post-school drop-off time. Villager stating "How do you vote then? Do I need ID? Will this take long?". Suggests high turn out.
Anecdote #2: Canadian (sub-continent family origin) in my office (London) late 20s on a work VISA. Knows a lot of other Canadians and they are split 50/50 - I would have expected far more for Remain. Those for Leave are very strongly for it - they want to see far closer relationships within the Commonwealth. He is likely to vote Leave!0 -
Any reason why leave is at 7 on Betfair? Is it all over?0
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No, there's no official rule. If it's on private land, it's fine. In fact, one objective of any decent campaign ought to be recuiting poster sites within sight of the polling stations.kle4 said:By the by, is there a rule on how far away any election material has to be from a polling station. Passed anofficial banner about 100 yards (by foot, less as the crow flies,it was on a fence circling it) outside my polling station.
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What we need to know is how brisk Polling is in places like New Addington, Blackbird Leys and Wythenshawe.
The turnout in places like that is the key.0 -
How on earth is there any relation between Leave and homophobia?Paul_Bedfordshire said:
I bet that is only in parts ie not places like Brighton where I suspect the opposite applies.midwinter said:
Depends where you live i guess. In sunny Sussex if you show any inclination towards Remain you're treated like a leper.nunu said:If ever there was an atmosphere for a shy voter effect in the polls, it is for this election.One side has been accused of murder.
Difference is that in if you get called a leper for remaining you can shrug it off, it is a toothless threat. Get yourself labelled racist Xeno or Homphobe or whatever for expressing support for Brexit and that could have real negative consequences for your future.0 -
Dave signs something.Mortimer said:
Leaving aside whether this would be the right thing to do, how is article 50 invoked?TheScreamingEagles said:
I've urged Dave to do this in the event of a Leave victory.Mortimer said:
'Spose.AlastairMeeks said:@Mortimer There's a base percentage of people in polls who think that X should resign no matter what the reason. In that context, only 40% wanting the Prime Minister to resign if Leave win is surprisingly low.
I can't see him hanging around too long in the event of a Leave win, mind.
TBH if Leave win, I wouldn't necessarily want him to resign straight away. Announce his intention to, sure, but not actually go to the palace.
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/745731968025911296/photo/1
Order in council? Doesn't that need a meeting of PC?
A bit like the signing of The Treaty of Lisbon, our PM just signs it.0 -
No it didn't. That was a subsample, which is baloney – not weighted.chestnut said:
The last Ipsos had Leave winning London.SouthamObserver said:Am I right in thinking that the last IPSOS MORI showed a Leave lead? If so, a four point Remain win is surely a big move. Direction of travel and all that.
That said, it may be time for another little Leave flutter. The odds are horribly tempting, but my wife would kill me if I put even more money on this.0 -
Not unusual. Lots of people only like the kind of democracy that means their preferred party get to govern. Like the SJWs who protested against the Tory government when it won with 37% of the vote, but not the Labour one that won with 35% of the vote.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Betting, quite. Mason's off his head. Says he dislikes the EU because it can't be a democracy but wants to stay in to prevent the democratically elected government having a free hand.
Mr. Tokyo, Cameron remaining or not may not be his choice to make.
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Most media and pundits -do- live in places like that.SouthamObserver said:I walked down Highgate Road to Kentish Town tube statin this morning. Remain posters everywhere - in the windows of the big £2 million houses and the council flats - and a big team outside the station itself. Much more activity than at the general election. If you lived in that part of London you could be forgiven for believing that Remain is going to walk this.
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Welcome back, Mr M - do stick aroundAlistairM said:Long time lurker, I used to post occasionally about 5years ago.
Anecdote alert!
Anecdote #1: Rural village in Buckinghamshire voting in prime post-school drop-off time. Villager stating "How do you vote then? Do I need ID? Will this take long?". Suggests high turn out.
Anecdote #2: Canadian (sub-continent family origin) in my office (London) late 20s on a work VISA. Knows a lot of other Canadians and they are split 50/50 - I would have expected far more for Remain. Those for Leave are very strongly for it - they want to see far closer relationships within the Commonwealth. He is likely to vote Leave!
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Scott_P said:
Is that's Shadsy's local polling station? (I assume he is just out of shot)0 -
Shudder. Behind closed doors, with the banana waver at his side.TheScreamingEagles said:
Dave signs something.Mortimer said:
Leaving aside whether this would be the right thing to do, how is article 50 invoked?TheScreamingEagles said:
I've urged Dave to do this in the event of a Leave victory.Mortimer said:
'Spose.AlastairMeeks said:@Mortimer There's a base percentage of people in polls who think that X should resign no matter what the reason. In that context, only 40% wanting the Prime Minister to resign if Leave win is surprisingly low.
I can't see him hanging around too long in the event of a Leave win, mind.
TBH if Leave win, I wouldn't necessarily want him to resign straight away. Announce his intention to, sure, but not actually go to the palace.
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/745731968025911296/photo/1
Order in council? Doesn't that need a meeting of PC?
A bit like the signing of The Treaty of Lisbon, our PM just signs it.0 -
FTSE up over 1.5%, someone thinks Remain will win.0
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Agreed.HurstLlama said:
Good for you, old chap. Always nice to have a free bottle of something decent.IanB2 said:BTW belated thanks to whoever it was that tipped Higher Power at Kempton Park on here yesterday - I know nothing about horse racing but as the tip came my way I risked a few £, and as a 9/2 winner I now have enough to buy a nice bottle of wine for this evening....
A few years ago this site used to be uncommonly good for racing tips. I had a superb day at Goodwood and my best ever day at the races, solely based on one chap on here giving me the winners in the first three races and if, memory serves, the second in the 5th.
Alas as PoliticalBetting morphed into Political Discusssion those knowledgeable punters have moved on. Though for me it is not to much of a problem (when I retired my wife made me promise only to do cash bets, failing eyesight means I can't get to the races much and the nearest bookies is a bus ride away), but it is a shame for you active chaps.
Scott P has had some good gee gees tips recently. Thanks Scott!0 -
The city boys clearly seeing polling / info we aren't, that shows Remain way ahead.logical_song said:FTSE up over 1.5%, someone thinks Remain will win.
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Mr. Gin, I agree. There should only be one poll on the day itself.
I think Ladbrokes sticking up the odds outside a polling station is not on. Bookies are there to make a profit but influencing voters as they go into the booth is not acceptable.0 -
My prediction formula is giving a result in Camden of 74% Remain if England is 50/50. In other words 70% Remain in Camden may mean Brexit. Shows how divided the country may be tomorrow morning.SouthamObserver said:I walked down Highgate Road to Kentish Town tube statin this morning. Remain posters everywhere - in the windows of the big £2 million houses and the council flats - and a big team outside the station itself. Much more activity than at the general election. If you lived in that part of London you could be forgiven for believing that Remain is going to walk this.
Living in the Midlands has given me a much better perspective on English political outlooks. I love London, but it operates in such a bubble. It really is a different country, clichéd as that sounds.0 -
No tanks outside BaghdadAndyJS said:Louise Mensch claims the Welsh valleys are voting 70/30 Leave:
twitter.com/LouiseMensch/status/745906994326933504
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Just don't ask him for tips on solving the Monty Hall problem....Mortimer said:
Agreed.HurstLlama said:
Good for you, old chap. Always nice to have a free bottle of something decent.IanB2 said:BTW belated thanks to whoever it was that tipped Higher Power at Kempton Park on here yesterday - I know nothing about horse racing but as the tip came my way I risked a few £, and as a 9/2 winner I now have enough to buy a nice bottle of wine for this evening....
A few years ago this site used to be uncommonly good for racing tips. I had a superb day at Goodwood and my best ever day at the races, solely based on one chap on here giving me the winners in the first three races and if, memory serves, the second in the 5th.
Alas as PoliticalBetting morphed into Political Discusssion those knowledgeable punters have moved on. Though for me it is not to much of a problem (when I retired my wife made me promise only to do cash bets, failing eyesight means I can't get to the races much and the nearest bookies is a bus ride away), but it is a shame for you active chaps.
Scott P has had some good gee gees tips recently. Thanks Scott!0 -
Presumably Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem and Green are using their party systems for the REMAIN Get Out The Vote process.
But only UKIP using their party system for the LEAVE GOTV process.
Disadvantage LEAVE.0 -
£20 on sub 54.5 @ 2.06 ...david_herdson said:0 -
I believe if Leave win there should be a General election, Cameron stays as PM. Article 50 not enacted till after GE. Therefore the GE becomes about electing our negotiating team and about shaping post Brexit U. Doubt it will happen like that but that would be democratic.0
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Mr. M, welcome back
Miss Jones, quite. Leadsom nailed Sturgeon on this point: some people want to be in the EU so it can override our democratically elected government.0 -
Nope. The Tory party is neutral.David_Evershed said:Presumably Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem and Green are using their party systems for the REMAIN Get Out The Vote process.
But only UKIP using their party system for the LEAVE GOTV process.
Disadvantage LEAVE.0 -
If remain do win can I appeal to all those remainer's to be magnanimous to the leavers here who will be absolutely devastated. They have been quite bullish for some time now and I believe David Cameron will set the tone on a remain win and demonstrate to the Nation that he is not only an outstanding leader but also is able to be kind to those who are hurting. Leave may yet win but it does seem unlikely. I am sure we can all agree that we need time to get back to normal service and for this forum to continue as the finest political commentary in the UK ( and the EU)0
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He might be better with EW bets on that.FrancisUrquhart said:
Just don't ask him for tips on solving the Monty Hall problem....Mortimer said:
Agreed.HurstLlama said:
Good for you, old chap. Always nice to have a free bottle of something decent.IanB2 said:BTW belated thanks to whoever it was that tipped Higher Power at Kempton Park on here yesterday - I know nothing about horse racing but as the tip came my way I risked a few £, and as a 9/2 winner I now have enough to buy a nice bottle of wine for this evening....
A few years ago this site used to be uncommonly good for racing tips. I had a superb day at Goodwood and my best ever day at the races, solely based on one chap on here giving me the winners in the first three races and if, memory serves, the second in the 5th.
Alas as PoliticalBetting morphed into Political Discusssion those knowledgeable punters have moved on. Though for me it is not to much of a problem (when I retired my wife made me promise only to do cash bets, failing eyesight means I can't get to the races much and the nearest bookies is a bus ride away), but it is a shame for you active chaps.
Scott P has had some good gee gees tips recently. Thanks Scott!0 -
We also had two desks rather than the usual one.Bob__Sykes said:
For the first time in my polling station (local library) they had two desks, one for streets in the first half of the alphabet, one in the second. Clearly anticipating demand - must be costing the council more than usual if repeated throughout the borough, or does central govt fund the costs?Roger said:Just voted. Remain people everywhere. They say the polling is 'Significantly higher' than the GE
Just put a bet on 70-80% even money0 -
The Tory Party is officially neutral - I don't think they can use central data at all. Not sure about a local party email list etcDavid_Evershed said:Presumably Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem and Green are using their party systems for the REMAIN Get Out The Vote process.
But only UKIP using their party system for the LEAVE GOTV process.
Disadvantage LEAVE.0 -
My one hope betting wise now is that Sunderland delivers a big "leave" vote so my 2-1 gets matched ^^;0
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I'd make the same comments the other way - though it is looking less likely to be the outcome.Big_G_NorthWales said:If remain do win can I appeal to all those remainer's to be magnanimous to the leavers here who will be absolutely devastated. They have been quite bullish for some time now and I believe David Cameron will set the tone on a remain win and demonstrate to the Nation that he is not only an outstanding leader but also is able to be kind to those who are hurting. Leave may yet win but it does seem unlikely. I am sure we can all agree that we need time to get back to normal service and for this forum to continue to the finest political commentary in the UK ( and the EU)
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Your bake-off ballot papers are all individually serial-numbered on the back, perforated by a pattern of dots kept secret until the day, and counted out and back to balance the count with the number issued? And you keep a complete record of which numbered paper went to which voter? Impressive stuff indeed....Blueberry said:Just voted. Was surprised the ballots are done on white, photocopier paper, black ink. The ballot papers for our work bake-off are more secure than that.
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Good stuff, Sir.Big_G_NorthWales said:If remain do win can I appeal to all those remainer's to be magnanimous to the leavers here who will be absolutely devastated. They have been quite bullish for some time now and I believe David Cameron will set the tone on a remain win and demonstrate to the Nation that he is not only an outstanding leader but also is able to be kind to those who are hurting. Leave may yet win but it does seem unlikely. I am sure we can all agree that we need time to get back to normal service and for this forum to continue as the finest political commentary in the UK ( and the EU)
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Have been received daily e mails, sometimes twice or more, from the In campaign. Absolutely unrelentingTheScreamingEagles said:
Nope. The Tory party is neutral.David_Evershed said:Presumably Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem and Green are using their party systems for the REMAIN Get Out The Vote process.
But only UKIP using their party system for the LEAVE GOTV process.
Disadvantage LEAVE.0 -
I have had nothing from either local or national Conservative lists - and I'm on most of them - campaigners, donor-members, local activists, GOTV etcPlatoSaid said:
The Tory Party is officially neutral - I don't think they can use central data at all. Not sure about a local party email list etcDavid_Evershed said:Presumably Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem and Green are using their party systems for the REMAIN Get Out The Vote process.
But only UKIP using their party system for the LEAVE GOTV process.
Disadvantage LEAVE.0 -
Remind me where Boris is MP for.... [I know]Scott_P said:@PolhomeEditor: EXCL: Heathrow runway decision 'in two weeks' https://t.co/sEedJKOLov https://t.co/lgerT9k2im
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Much appreciated.AndyJS said:0 -
Been telling for 90 minutes now at a polling station in Hart. Steady flow of voters. 2-3 every 2-3 minutes.
About seven or eight very enthusiastic Leavers keen to tell me they're Leave, giving encouragement and thumbs up.
Remain lady next to us hasn't got any of that but about half of people are just staring at their feet, or ignoring both sides, and walking straight into the polling station.0 -
Herman rumpy pumpy wasn't it?TheScreamingEagles said:
Typical leaver, wanting to ban stuff, first it was the free movement of people, now it's opinion polls, next you'll be banning rumpy pumpyGIN1138 said:
I really, really, don't agree with all this voting day polling that's going on!TheScreamingEagles said:There's a Populus poll out at midday.
Interesting as they are Remain's private pollster.
Electoral commission needs to bring this to an end for subsequent elections.0 -
That said the architects of the Tory digital campaign of ge2015 are all mostly working for Britain Stronger In Europe0
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Mr. NorthWales, I tend to get e-mail from the Conservatives and actual mail from Labour (the Lib Dems are kind enough to ignore me). Not sure I've had anything beyond the odd e-mail during the campaign.
Incidentally, my parents both gets leaflets from Leave on the same day, but they were different (one was about the NHS, the other something else). Interesting, as it suggests some attempt at sophisticated targeting.0 -
Hmm what would happen if Labour stood on a platform of not signing it, and they then win. wouldn't the general election trump the referendum...grahambc1 said:I believe if Leave win there should be a General election, Cameron stays as PM. Article 50 not enacted till after GE. Therefore the GE becomes about electing our negotiating team and about shaping post Brexit U. Doubt it will happen like that but that would be democratic.
Could be academic now, but it could be possible.0 -
I reckon any kind of Leave lead in Sunderland will push the odds back towards Leave as non-informed punters aren't expecting it.Pulpstar said:My one hope betting wise now is that Sunderland delivers a big "leave" vote so my 2-1 gets matched ^^;
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What was the real reason Farage pulled out of last night's debate? First the rumour spread that a family member had been attacked. Then it was reported he had "simply decided" to go to dinner with his 27-year-old son, whom he hadn't seen for nine months. The only way that could be true is if his son said "it's now or never, Dad". If that's what happened, I could understand Farage choosing to meet with his son. In similar circumstances, I would certainly put my son first. But it sounds unlikely.
Many people don't like Farage - and I'm one of them - but he has always struck me as competent. Why has he turned into such a twit this morning, saying "I do think we are in with a very strong chance, I do genuinely. But it's all about turnout and those soft remainers staying at home". Couldn't he have said something that was actually a message to his own side, such as "It's important that people who are thinking they might vote to Leave, but who aren't sure, make up their minds and get out and vote, because we're not going to get another chance"?
I'll vote Remain, but I think Leave will win. It was the Sun, the Daily Mail and the queen what won it.
Funny how the involvement of the queen on the eve of the vote, in Britain's most-read newspaper, hasn't brought much comment.0 -
Are you actually telling - i.e. collecting polling numbers? Impressive GOTV operation if so.Casino_Royale said:Been telling for 90 minutes now at a polling station in Hart. Steady flow of voters. 2-3 every 2-3 minutes.
About seven or eight very enthusiastic Leavers keen to tell me they're Leave, giving encouragement and thumbs up.
Remain lady next to us hasn't got any of that but about half of people are just staring at their feet, or ignoring both sides, and walking straight into the polling station.0 -
and the other side had someone murdered.nunu said:If ever there was an atmosphere for a shy voter effect in the polls, it is for this election.One side has been accused of murder.
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If remain win I will be so sorry for your hurt and hope that you will be able to return, in due course, to supporting the Conservative Party in the management of this great Country of ours, whether In or outPlatoSaid said:
Good stuff, Sir.Big_G_NorthWales said:If remain do win can I appeal to all those remainer's to be magnanimous to the leavers here who will be absolutely devastated. They have been quite bullish for some time now and I believe David Cameron will set the tone on a remain win and demonstrate to the Nation that he is not only an outstanding leader but also is able to be kind to those who are hurting. Leave may yet win but it does seem unlikely. I am sure we can all agree that we need time to get back to normal service and for this forum to continue as the finest political commentary in the UK ( and the EU)
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I've not had a single one from my local Tories - nor one from local Labour. I expected something from them, not a dicky bird. They both send me a regular circular/come to this event stuff.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Have been received daily e mails, sometimes twice or more, from the In campaign. Absolutely unrelentingTheScreamingEagles said:
Nope. The Tory party is neutral.David_Evershed said:Presumably Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem and Green are using their party systems for the REMAIN Get Out The Vote process.
But only UKIP using their party system for the LEAVE GOTV process.
Disadvantage LEAVE.0 -
Incidentally, those after some rumpy-pumpy to while away the hours should buy this, by me:
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Adventures-Edric-Hero-Hornska-Book-ebook/dp/B01DOSP9ZK
The publisher wanted to change the series' title to Rumpy-pumpy Chronicles/Tales. Whilst a fun word, I felt that'd make it appear the whole thing was of that nature, whereas Sir Edric has many vices (greed, clinging to grudges like a toddler with a blanket, gluttony, being mostly drunk etc).0 -
Just voted LEAVE - very busy down at my normally rather sleepy polling station (personally canvassed - it's a leave area). Those betting on a low turnout are unlikely to be receiving a payout0
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My twitter timeline and facebook feed running at 99% Remain, so based on indyref weightings - expect Leave to win.0
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Well, speaking for myself, a certain chancellor's proximity to the leadership matters immensely.Big_G_NorthWales said:
If remain win I will be so sorry for your hurt and hope that you will be able to return, in due course, to supporting the Conservative Party in the management of this great Country of ours, whether In or outPlatoSaid said:
Good stuff, Sir.Big_G_NorthWales said:If remain do win can I appeal to all those remainer's to be magnanimous to the leavers here who will be absolutely devastated. They have been quite bullish for some time now and I believe David Cameron will set the tone on a remain win and demonstrate to the Nation that he is not only an outstanding leader but also is able to be kind to those who are hurting. Leave may yet win but it does seem unlikely. I am sure we can all agree that we need time to get back to normal service and for this forum to continue as the finest political commentary in the UK ( and the EU)
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Actually it worked out very well for both Chamberlain and the country. It did not stop WW2 of course, but it bought enough time for the UK to rearm and especially for Fighter Command to get in place Radar (as it became known) and to build enough modern fighters to enable the Battle of Britain to be won.Disraeli said:
Ah! The old "Holding up a piece of paper with a solemn promise on it" tactic.TOPPING said:
I'm sure.MarqueeMark said:
I'm also expecting buyer's remorse to be swift and harsh if we vote to Remain! The EU has been walking on egg-shells, saying nothing that could rock the boat for a couple of months. There's going to be pent-up stuff coming out that will get more than a few people spitting nails...OllyT said:
I would estimate about 20-25% positively want to stay, particularly at the younger end of the spectrum. I would also say that most people don't have a scooby doo about the EU. The ignorance and misinformation is appalling when you hear Joe Public being interviewed. It has become the convenient scapegoat to blame for all their problems. That's why Leave is doing so well, they can project everyone's concerns on the EU and promise them everything will be better if we just leave.MarqueeMark said:The big fight today is between those who want to leave the EU - and those who want to leave the EU but are too scared of the consequences.
The number of people who want to stay in the EU because it is wonderful are tiny.
Of course if we do leave within a year everyone will be blaming all their woes on Brexit.
I am sanguine about the result, fortunate enough not to be affected either way but I am expecting the buyer's remorse to swift and harsh if we leave, particularly once we opt for a solution that maintains freedom of movement as I am certain we will.
And then, Dave produces his piece of paper saying: No Ever Closer Union.
And PUUFFFFFFFFFT! All that pent-up stuff will be repelled.
Remind me again how well that worked out for Neville Chamberlain.
Chamberlain, by then very ill with terminal cancer, was forced to step down after the Norway fiasco but nonetheless played a very important part in keeping Churchill in power against the machinations of the surrender monkey, Lord Halifax.
Chamberlain has been the victim of shocking bad press, much of which is undeserved.0 -
No, they're reacting to the public polling. There's no Holy Grail of absolutely accurate private polling that only insiders have access to.FrancisUrquhart said:
The city boys clearly seeing polling / info we aren't, that shows Remain way ahead.logical_song said:FTSE up over 1.5%, someone thinks Remain will win.
There's a hell of a lot of very ropey private polling.0 -
7 in 10 Con MPs probably voting LEAVE..
"Even a substantial Remain win doesn’t change the parliamentary arithmetic; with a working majority of 18 he will need to rely on the support of the numerous MPs that the Cameron-led Remain campaign has spent the past months vilifying. On which note, while ‘only’ 140 Tory MPs (42%) declared publicly their support for Leave, ComRes found in a March 2016 survey of MPs – conducted anonymously – that a whopping seven in ten Conservatives intended to vote to Leave. "
Andrew Hawkins0 -
Anecdote.
Found it very difficult to get response from VoteLeave website.0 -
Mr. Llama, interesting stuff about Chamberlain.
I fear, then, that Cameron's worse. He hasn't bought anything for the UK.0 -
Like the morning after the Scottish referendum vote? I would not put it past him to start talking up the euro.Big_G_NorthWales said:If remain do win can I appeal to all those remainer's to be magnanimous to the leavers here who will be absolutely devastated. They have been quite bullish for some time now and I believe David Cameron will set the tone on a remain win and demonstrate to the Nation that he is not only an outstanding leader but also is able to be kind to those who are hurting. Leave may yet win but it does seem unlikely. I am sure we can all agree that we need time to get back to normal service and for this forum to continue as the finest political commentary in the UK ( and the EU)
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True. Personally I think 54.5% may turn out to be close to fair value - but if I was of your view I think I would make it akin to an each-way bet by dividing my stake equally between the two positions, such that if leave didn't win my hopeful win on the Evens position covers my stake.david_herdson said:0 -
Our antiquated polling system works very well indeed. It would be very hard - some might say impossible - to game it to a large degree.IanB2 said:
Your bake-off ballot papers are all individually serial-numbered on the back, perforated by a pattern of dots kept secret until the day, and counted out and back to balance the count with the number issued? And you keep a complete record of which numbered paper went to which voter? Impressive stuff indeed....Blueberry said:Just voted. Was surprised the ballots are done on white, photocopier paper, black ink. The ballot papers for our work bake-off are more secure than that.
Widespread modern postal voting is less so, although I doubt PV fraud is as widespread as some think.
In comparison, electronic voting is untrustworthy with current technology. And that goes for both EV-at-polling-station as well as EV-from-home systems.0 -
Ours have been from Laura SandysMorris_Dancer said:Mr. NorthWales, I tend to get e-mail from the Conservatives and actual mail from Labour (the Lib Dems are kind enough to ignore me). Not sure I've had anything beyond the odd e-mail during the campaign.
Incidentally, my parents both gets leaflets from Leave on the same day, but they were different (one was about the NHS, the other something else). Interesting, as it suggests some attempt at sophisticated targeting.0 -
I would not be surprised to see a higher than 74% vote in Camden for Remain. It's not impossible that it will be the most pro-Remain place in the whole country. And turnout will be pretty high too, I'd imagine.AndyJS said:
My prediction formula is giving a result in Camden of 74% Remain if England is 50/50. In other words 70% Remain in Camden may mean Brexit. Shows how divided the country may be tomorrow morning.SouthamObserver said:I walked down Highgate Road to Kentish Town tube statin this morning. Remain posters everywhere - in the windows of the big £2 million houses and the council flats - and a big team outside the station itself. Much more activity than at the general election. If you lived in that part of London you could be forgiven for believing that Remain is going to walk this.
Living in the Midlands has given me a much better perspective on English political outlooks. I love London, but it operates in such a bubble. It really is a different country, clichéd as that sounds.
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The polls are showing a statistical tie and are unproven at best.Sean_F said:
No, they're reacting to the public polling. There's no Holy Grail of absolutely accurate private polling that only insiders have access to.FrancisUrquhart said:
The city boys clearly seeing polling / info we aren't, that shows Remain way ahead.logical_song said:FTSE up over 1.5%, someone thinks Remain will win.
There's a hell of a lot of very ropey private polling.
Google predicts Brexit win.0 -
Welcome back JJ. Really good to see you on here. Hope the health is still improving.JosiasJessop said:
Our antiquated polling system works very well indeed. It would be very hard - some might say impossible - to game it to a large degree.IanB2 said:
Your bake-off ballot papers are all individually serial-numbered on the back, perforated by a pattern of dots kept secret until the day, and counted out and back to balance the count with the number issued? And you keep a complete record of which numbered paper went to which voter? Impressive stuff indeed....Blueberry said:Just voted. Was surprised the ballots are done on white, photocopier paper, black ink. The ballot papers for our work bake-off are more secure than that.
Widespread modern postal voting is less so, although I doubt PV fraud is as widespread as some think.
In comparison, electronic voting is untrustworthy with current technology. And that goes for both EV-at-polling-station as well as EV-from-home systems.0 -
Don't believe that is a tenable position, they will not win if they took that line which i hope that wouldn't doSlackbladder said:
Hmm what would happen if Labour stood on a platform of not signing it, and they then win. wouldn't the general election trump the referendum...grahambc1 said:I believe if Leave win there should be a General election, Cameron stays as PM. Article 50 not enacted till after GE. Therefore the GE becomes about electing our negotiating team and about shaping post Brexit U. Doubt it will happen like that but that would be democratic.
Could be academic now, but it could be possible.0 -
Suppose Mr Cameron stands outside No 10 and says (following a narrow Leave win)( as he is fully entitled to do).
"The results of the referendum are inconclusive. I therefore feel that as it is in the best interests of the Country, I will not be invoking article 50."0 -
Thanks. Sadly not. Have emerged from my hovel for the fun 'n games today and tonight, after which I might re-lurk.Richard_Tyndall said:
Welcome back JJ. Really good to see you on here. Hope the health is still improving.JosiasJessop said:
Our antiquated polling system works very well indeed. It would be very hard - some might say impossible - to game it to a large degree.IanB2 said:
Your bake-off ballot papers are all individually serial-numbered on the back, perforated by a pattern of dots kept secret until the day, and counted out and back to balance the count with the number issued? And you keep a complete record of which numbered paper went to which voter? Impressive stuff indeed....Blueberry said:Just voted. Was surprised the ballots are done on white, photocopier paper, black ink. The ballot papers for our work bake-off are more secure than that.
Widespread modern postal voting is less so, although I doubt PV fraud is as widespread as some think.
In comparison, electronic voting is untrustworthy with current technology. And that goes for both EV-at-polling-station as well as EV-from-home systems.0 -
Just 10hr to go
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That is my position as wellMortimer said:
Well, speaking for myself, a certain chancellor's proximity to the leadership matters immensely.Big_G_NorthWales said:
If remain win I will be so sorry for your hurt and hope that you will be able to return, in due course, to supporting the Conservative Party in the management of this great Country of ours, whether In or outPlatoSaid said:
Good stuff, Sir.Big_G_NorthWales said:If remain do win can I appeal to all those remainer's to be magnanimous to the leavers here who will be absolutely devastated. They have been quite bullish for some time now and I believe David Cameron will set the tone on a remain win and demonstrate to the Nation that he is not only an outstanding leader but also is able to be kind to those who are hurting. Leave may yet win but it does seem unlikely. I am sure we can all agree that we need time to get back to normal service and for this forum to continue as the finest political commentary in the UK ( and the EU)
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Good to see you back JJ, I wondered about you yesterday. How is the sprog?JosiasJessop said:
Thanks. Sadly not. Have emerged from my hovel for the fun 'n games today and tonight, after which I might re-lurk.Richard_Tyndall said:
Welcome back JJ. Really good to see you on here. Hope the health is still improving.JosiasJessop said:
Our antiquated polling system works very well indeed. It would be very hard - some might say impossible - to game it to a large degree.IanB2 said:
Your bake-off ballot papers are all individually serial-numbered on the back, perforated by a pattern of dots kept secret until the day, and counted out and back to balance the count with the number issued? And you keep a complete record of which numbered paper went to which voter? Impressive stuff indeed....Blueberry said:Just voted. Was surprised the ballots are done on white, photocopier paper, black ink. The ballot papers for our work bake-off are more secure than that.
Widespread modern postal voting is less so, although I doubt PV fraud is as widespread as some think.
In comparison, electronic voting is untrustworthy with current technology. And that goes for both EV-at-polling-station as well as EV-from-home systems.
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@MSmithsonPB: Populus has REMAIN 10% ahead0
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It's not over until the last vote has been cast so I will be voting 'leave' later this evening.0
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@PopulusPolls: Populus Final Pre-Ref Poll (4700, Online) 55% REMAIN: 45% LEAVE. Fieldwork 21-06-16 to midnight 22-06-16. https://t.co/QuYl5dSwle0
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Populus online
Remain 55
Leave 45
Sample 4,700
Fieldwork 21st/22nd June0 -
Now that Populus would certainly explain the betting markets ..........0
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Well thats pretty definate.0
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Brendan O'Neill 2p
http://www.spiked-online.com/newsite/article/why-today-is-a-great-day-for-democracy/18488#.V2vEZiFVikp
'Today is a really good day for democracy. For British voters have been entrusted to make a real decision. A decision that could have a massive impact on both British politics and the global order.
Where in recent years voting in General Elections has come to feel routine, and possibly even a little pointless, given you couldn’t squeeze so much as a beermat between the policy programmes of the main parties, today’s vote feels heavy, solid, like we’ve been given real democratic responsibility.
I know that when I cast my ballot early this morning — for Leave — I felt powerful in a way that I didn’t on the two occasions I’ve voted in General Elections. I felt like a true democratic citizen, making a choice that could make a ripple in history itself, and make the future look very different to what we have today. It felt good.0 -
One good reason to vote leave.
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/7459333820146032640 -
Perhaps I'm clutching at straws, but all this Remain excitement does seem a bit bubble-ish.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:My twitter timeline and facebook feed running at 99% Remain, so based on indyref weightings - expect Leave to win.
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Well we know what was driving all the market activity now then don't we.....0
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Mr. Jessop, good to see you back on, but I'm sorry to hear about your health. Hope it improves 0
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Arise Sir David!0
