Pointless anecdote time: voting reported much busier than for the mayoral election. I can't directly compare, however, because I voted about two hours later than last month.
No teller outside today, which isn't a great surprise as TTBOMK neither side canvassed - but without tellers and canvassing how does GOTV work?
Greenwich borough.
You can do GOTV just by going and bothering all your supporters - telling simply reduces your workload (and the number of people you annoy) by eliminating those who have already voted. IME the Labour Party is starting to work this way, rather than provide tellers at all stations.
Done my civic duty on behalf of the young 'uns. Polling here in a prosperous, rural, solid Tory area (which I think will split fairly evenly) was the busiest I've known.
No, you've done your "civic duty" for Cameron and Osborne.
Yes, and Boris and Gove. Wouldn't want to put them into the awkward position of actually having to deliver on their promises that the experts are all wrong. That wouldn't be fair.
It'd have to be a leak to someone with a lot of money. I think there's been about £1m traded on the Betfair Brexit market this morning. That market has done this before for no good reason. I don't know but I'd be surprised if anyone outside a select number in Mori know their figures at the moment.
Polling station was busy for the time of day. Met some elderly couples in small groups who seemed to be treating it as a social event. Clerk asked if I wanted to keep my polling card as a souvenir.
It'd have to be a leak to someone with a lot of money. I think there's been about £1m traded on the Betfair Brexit market this morning. That market has done this before for no good reason. I don't know but I'd be surprised if anyone outside a select number in Mori know their figures at the moment.
Done my civic duty on behalf of the young 'uns. Polling here in a prosperous, rural, solid Tory area (which I think will split fairly evenly) was the busiest I've known.
No, you've done your "civic duty" for Cameron and Osborne.
Yes, and Boris and Gove. Wouldn't want to put them into the awkward position of actually having to deliver on their promises that the experts are all wrong. That wouldn't be fair.
REMAIN today. Tomorrow the Euro? For the "young 'uns"?
Anecdote alert !!!! Some of you may know that I play a lot of online Bridge ( on the BCL website ) . The referendum has been much discussed on their comments board . Although the demographics are of a majority of older members which should clearly favour Leave the consensus is running around 70/30 for Remain .
Perhaps being Bridge players they have an IQ of over 100 which favours Remain?
The most positive quote for Remain from the editor of a Portugese newspaper in Norfolk (h/t The Guardian)
"I have a feeling that Yes (the remain camp) will win. British people always taught us they are fair and just. Europe cannot stand alone without Great Britain. If you vote Yes, I think you will be able to help change the EU and become - one more time - the "muscle" to reach peaceful and stable solutions for Europe and finally reach a solution about immigration and security, which we are all worried about".
The price available to back Leave at is incredible on all known data. 5.5/5.6 on Betfair. It seems to good to be true. That said the market reminds me very much of the largest party book on election day. Every time the Tories drifted out to 1.3 a massive swamp of money pounded them back into 1.2 ish. That despite the last few days polling suggesting Labour had an at least 2/1 chance of being largest party. Maybe some people just know more than us, I assumed it was down to exit poll leaks on Election day, be interesting to see what happens as the day goes along.
Re. MORI. As I always say in polling day, I think there should be a ban on opinion polls being released actually on the day of polling... Doesn't seem fair that something external like a MORI poll could influence the way people vote today.
ONS — UK population grew by half a million last year.
The ONS population forecasts are holding up then.
So we need a new Birmingham's worth of infrastructure and so on every two years just to stand still, never mind make up the deficits we have built up. That's why immigration is a big issue and not "racism".
You have it the wrong way around. The laws are determined by the EU bodies and the ECJ interprets those laws. The EU has just made another law, in effect.
All the ECJ can do is to refer to the law, in this case the one created by the Heads of State or Government, and say - oh yes, that's all in order.
Edit: because I am totally an expert on European Law, its formulation, and its interpretation.
Nope. The ECJ refers to the treaties not the law for primacy for its decisions. It interprets the law based upon the treaties. This is why it can overturn non-treaty agreements if it decides they are in conflict with the treaties.
Re. MORI. As I always say in polling day, I think there should be a ban on opinion polls being released actually on the day of polling... Doesn't seem fair that something external like a MORI poll could influence the way people vote today.
Especially when there as such tight restrictions on the tv (and quite rightly)
Re. MORI. As I always say in polling day, I think there should be a ban on opinion polls being released actually on the day of polling... Doesn't seem fair that something external like a MORI poll could influence the way people vote today.
It wasn't what I meant and you know fine well it wasn't/
It depends what you mean by "accept the result" I suppose. If Leave win I accept we will leave the EU in the next few years, but I will still argue for rejoining as soon as possible. I imagine Leavers will do the same in reverse.
It wasn't what I meant and you know fine well it wasn't/
What, maybe 15% of the population is *actually* pro-EU. What do we think support for the Euro would be?!
Why would people vote Remain for any other reason than they are pro-EU? It may be marginal but surely they think on balance being in the EU is better than not being in it?
Polling station was busy for the time of day. Met some elderly couples in small groups who seemed to be treating it as a social event. Clerk asked if I wanted to keep my polling card as a souvenir.
I don't think I ever received my polling card. Perhaps some kind soul has already voted on my behalf.
For anyone who hasn't voted yet, after collecting your ballot flip a coin in front of other people look at the result a say 'well, that's what I'll vote then' and see what reaction you get.
It'd have to be a leak to someone with a lot of money. I think there's been about £1m traded on the Betfair Brexit market this morning. That market has done this before for no good reason. I don't know but I'd be surprised if anyone outside a select number in Mori know their figures at the moment.
No... I 'm sure you're right. It just seems so strange. The prices seem so disparate to the polling. There are plenty of vultures on Betfair to pick up on value bets, and they don't seem to be.
You have it the wrong way around. The laws are determined by the EU bodies and the ECJ interprets those laws. The EU has just made another law, in effect.
All the ECJ can do is to refer to the law, in this case the one created by the Heads of State or Government, and say - oh yes, that's all in order.
Edit: because I am totally an expert on European Law, its formulation, and its interpretation.
Nope. The ECJ refers to the treaties not the law for primacy for its decisions. It interprets the law based upon the treaties. This is why it can overturn non-treaty agreements if it decides they are in conflict with the treaties.
That is correct. Until (or unless) the agreement is integrated into the Treaties, it is largely worthless.
I would hope that - assuming a Remain vote - that whoever is the next PM, demands it is incorporated as soon as possible. And if it is not incorporated, then I would argue that would be grounds for another referendum.*
* There is a problem with another referendum. If we had one in 2024 (say), then Remain will be able to say "Look! Last time the Leavers made up this whole story of Turkey joining. And guess what? It wasn't true. Don't fall for their lies again."
Always an optimist. But really what is the alternative to accepting the decision of the British people? The majority of the electorate, even on the losing side, will expect it.
It wasn't what I meant and you know fine well it wasn't/
What, maybe 15% of the population is *actually* pro-EU. What do we think support for the Euro would be?!
Why would people vote Remain for any other reason than they are pro-EU? It may be marginal but surely they think on balance being in the EU is better than not being in it?
I don't think the second sentence is equivalent to someone necessarily being pro-EU.
You have it the wrong way around. The laws are determined by the EU bodies and the ECJ interprets those laws. The EU has just made another law, in effect.
All the ECJ can do is to refer to the law, in this case the one created by the Heads of State or Government, and say - oh yes, that's all in order.
Edit: because I am totally an expert on European Law, its formulation, and its interpretation.
Nope. The ECJ refers to the treaties not the law for primacy for its decisions. It interprets the law based upon the treaties. This is why it can overturn non-treaty agreements if it decides they are in conflict with the treaties.
That is correct. Until (or unless) the agreement is integrated into the Treaties, it is largely worthless.
I would hope that - assuming a Remain vote - that whoever is the next PM, demands it is incorporated as soon as possible. And if it is not incorporated, then I would argue that would be grounds for another referendum.*
* There is a problem with another referendum. If we had one in 2024 (say), then Remain will be able to say "Look! Last time the Leavers made up this whole story of Turkey joining. And guess what? It wasn't true. Don't fall for their lies again."
Depends how many acquis chapters are opened/closed, I suppose
You have it the wrong way around. The laws are determined by the EU bodies and the ECJ interprets those laws. The EU has just made another law, in effect.
All the ECJ can do is to refer to the law, in this case the one created by the Heads of State or Government, and say - oh yes, that's all in order.
Edit: because I am totally an expert on European Law, its formulation, and its interpretation.
Nope. The ECJ refers to the treaties not the law for primacy for its decisions. It interprets the law based upon the treaties. This is why it can overturn non-treaty agreements if it decides they are in conflict with the treaties.
Yes I agree.
That language is pretty unambiguous, though:
(iii) this Decision is legally binding, and may be amended or repealed only by common accord of the Heads of State or Government of the Member States of the European Union;
so if it is amended, or repealed, or there is an attempt to do so by the ECJ, the government of the day cries blue murder.
I don't know what the outcome was of John Major's infamous letter (sites only ever print the letter, not the follow up). But if the ECJ, say, tries to strike down the deal, and we say: "oh ok then", then I will be alongside you marching on parliament.
The Guardian is reporting Sky will publish a YouGov at 10pm. Recontacting folk in it's final poll to ask how they actually voted. IIRC the approach worked OK in Indyref.
It wasn't what I meant and you know fine well it wasn't/
It depends what you mean by "accept the result" I suppose. If Leave win I accept we will leave the EU in the next few years, but I will still argue for rejoining as soon as possible. I imagine Leavers will do the same in reverse.
In other words, neither side will accept the result. I agree.
The Guardian is reporting Sky will publish a YouGov at 10pm. Recontacting folk in it's final poll to ask how they actually voted. IIRC the approach worked OK in Indyref.
Mr. Eagles, on Survation's exit poll, that's interesting considering the chaps who normally do one for the General Election aren't on the basis it's impossible to get an accurate sample/picture.
The Guardian is reporting Sky will publish a YouGov at 10pm. Recontacting folk in it's final poll to ask how they actually voted. IIRC the approach worked OK in Indyref.
Was a waste of time for the general election though...
The Guardian is reporting Sky will publish a YouGov at 10pm. Recontacting folk in it's final poll to ask how they actually voted. IIRC the approach worked OK in Indyref.
At least two PBers have been approached by YouGov for that.
The Guardian is reporting Sky will publish a YouGov at 10pm. Recontacting folk in it's final poll to ask how they actually voted. IIRC the approach worked OK in Indyref.
Voted. Concerned about immediate economic difficulties which might affect me but nobly decided to vote "Leave" for the long term future of the young 'uns.
The Guardian is reporting Sky will publish a YouGov at 10pm. Recontacting folk in it's final poll to ask how they actually voted. IIRC the approach worked OK in Indyref.
Yep. I just had my yougov email. Very brief
How did you vote (postal/proxy/in person/did not vote) Which way did you vote When did you make your mind up A list of what the most important factor was for making you vote how you did. What do you think the result will be.
The Guardian is reporting Sky will publish a YouGov at 10pm. Recontacting folk in it's final poll to ask how they actually voted. IIRC the approach worked OK in Indyref.
At least two PBers have been approached by YouGov for that.
I'm very suspicious of Yougovs, I've been in far too many relative to my 1/30,000,000th of the total vote or so I represent.
Cameron might yet get chance to implement plan A - The most brutal cabinet reshuffle since Macmillan's night of the long knives.
Only if it's 70/30
Why not if it's 55:45? Cameron will still have won, Gove and Boris will have lost. Cameron may want to reward loyalty before he exits the stage.
Because unless Remain win huge the Tory vote will have been ver split, and he would only provoke the leave voters, members and enough MPs into revolt if he went that brutal. It could still happen even if Remain win huge, but if that is the case he has the weight that the Tory vote probably was big for Remain too to add authority
Mori must have leaked. Leave price is sliding away beyond 6.
Seriously, after all this is over TSE and Mike should do a thread about the need to shield polling from prying eyes. It is insider trading writ large and it is not cricket.
The best system would be one whereby polls may be that polls have to be released the moment they are complete.
Voted. Concerned about immediate economic difficulties which might affect me but nobly decided to vote "Leave" for the long term future of the young 'uns.
The Guardian is reporting Sky will publish a YouGov at 10pm. Recontacting folk in it's final poll to ask how they actually voted. IIRC the approach worked OK in Indyref.
It's by no means in the bag. Vote for what you think is best!
We were running our very own Operation Croissant at breakfast this morning and enjoying a soft and delicious melon. I was having a Proustian Moment about the melons we used to have for starters at posh dinners: unripe, rock hard with a layer of powdered ginger on top. As your spoon hit the hard but slippery surface it would send up a cloud of ginger. You would then sneeze all over it. So I thought, Remain for Better Melons!
It wasn't what I meant and you know fine well it wasn't/
It depends what you mean by "accept the result" I suppose. If Leave win I accept we will leave the EU in the next few years, but I will still argue for rejoining as soon as possible. I imagine Leavers will do the same in reverse.
In other words, neither side will accept the result. I agree.
I worry about the number of people who seem to have lost faith in the legitimacy of the entire process. It's easy to mock the "vote in pen" crowd, but they seem to be getting more numerous. It makes me sad that we've got to the stage where a significant minority of people actually believe that our electoral process will be rigged by the government. I don't think they'll accept the result if it doesn't go their way.
Comments
Polling station was busy for the time of day. Met some elderly couples in small groups who seemed to be treating it as a social event. Clerk asked if I wanted to keep my polling card as a souvenir.
It wasn't what I meant and you know fine well it wasn't/
"I have a feeling that Yes (the remain camp) will win. British people always taught us they are fair and just. Europe cannot stand alone without Great Britain. If you vote Yes, I think you will be able to help change the EU and become - one more time - the "muscle" to reach peaceful and stable solutions for Europe and finally reach a solution about immigration and security, which we are all worried about".
Cameron will still have won, Gove and Boris will have lost. Cameron may want to reward loyalty before he exits the stage.
Maybe some people just know more than us, I assumed it was down to exit poll leaks on Election day, be interesting to see what happens as the day goes along.
https://twitter.com/Sathnam/status/745611435540094976
So we need a new Birmingham's worth of infrastructure and so on every two years just to stand still, never mind make up the deficits we have built up. That's why immigration is a big issue and not "racism".
I would hope that - assuming a Remain vote - that whoever is the next PM, demands it is incorporated as soon as possible. And if it is not incorporated, then I would argue that would be grounds for another referendum.*
* There is a problem with another referendum. If we had one in 2024 (say), then Remain will be able to say "Look! Last time the Leavers made up this whole story of Turkey joining. And guess what? It wasn't true. Don't fall for their lies again."
But really what is the alternative to accepting the decision of the British people? The majority of the electorate, even on the losing side, will expect it.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/chrisstokelwalker/faster-than-a-speeding-ballot?utm_term=.bxwezM7Op#.gr7E1DONY
The EU is a company destroying machine for UK manufacturing;
IT will follow.
That language is pretty unambiguous, though:
(iii) this Decision is legally binding, and may be amended or repealed only by common accord of the Heads of State or Government of the Member States of the European Union;
so if it is amended, or repealed, or there is an attempt to do so by the ECJ, the government of the day cries blue murder.
I don't know what the outcome was of John Major's infamous letter (sites only ever print the letter, not the follow up). But if the ECJ, say, tries to strike down the deal, and we say: "oh ok then", then I will be alongside you marching on parliament.
Michael Crick C4 News says Leave Campaign think they have big lead in Postal Vote esp in Labour areas.
Who know's anymore...
If he had gone to Arsenal, he would have fallen asleep waiting for the ball while the midfield passed it to each other 423 times.
How did you vote (postal/proxy/in person/did not vote)
Which way did you vote
When did you make your mind up
A list of what the most important factor was for making you vote how you did.
What do you think the result will be.
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/745899208583028738
Seriously, after all this is over TSE and Mike should do a thread about the need to shield polling from prying eyes. It is insider trading writ large and it is not cricket.
The best system would be one whereby polls may be that polls have to be released the moment they are complete.
We were running our very own Operation Croissant at breakfast this morning and enjoying a soft and delicious melon. I was having a Proustian Moment about the melons we used to have for starters at posh dinners: unripe, rock hard with a layer of powdered ginger on top. As your spoon hit the hard but slippery surface it would send up a cloud of ginger. You would then sneeze all over it. So I thought, Remain for Better Melons!