Do I detect Leavers starting to throw the towel in? Seems a little early. Given everything we went through with GE polling, I still think this is too close to call and Labour voters may be about to give us Remainers a shock.
Voted about 8.10 this morning. No queue but maybe 50 had already voted. No signs, posters, tellers, anybody from either side. First time I have ever seen that. The SNP have always had signs up before.
Despite the number that had voted already (and of course the postal votes) I can't help feeling that Scottish participation will be on the low side. But we shall see...
Ladbrokes Politics @LadPolitics 55s55 seconds ago Ladbrokes:
55% of bets placed so far today are for LEAVE.
That is very good news for leave.
Not if iT is a good of Leicester city fans putting a £5 on another long shot, while the city boys are piling millions on because of their leaked / private polling.
As soon as Farage didn't turn up for Channel 4 last night I knew Leave had lost, if he thought he was winning he would never turn down an opportunity to be on the TV.
so Cameron turns up in downing street and its a sign he has lost it Farage declines to turn up for a debate and its a sign he lost it
much straw clutching in the air :-)
I thought there was illness or something like that within Farage's family?
(Sorry I took so long to respond, just been trying to get some actual work done.)
Re what happened after Major's letter to Santer about the UK being obliged to accept EU legislation from which it believed it had achieved a legally-binding opt-out:
The letter was written in 1996. The government didn't get anywhere in trying to ensure they got what they had believed they had agreed to. In 1997, Tony Blair won the general election and the Labour government adopted the Social Chapter.
Nick Watt claimed a major leaver told him last week they thought they had it in the bag. Then the events of last Thursday.
i do agree. If leave lose it's thomas mair who lost it for them.
I disagree. There's no way at all for us to know if that is why people are voting the way they are - it happened after a major swing to leave some swing back to Remain was perfectly possible.
And if it is a big remain win, it definitely wasn't the reason. But even a slight one, it's unprovable, so it's an excuse if leavers blame it.
If Leave lose, then some people will blame Thomas Mair. I don't think it stands up.
If people's allegiance to a cause can be swayed by what is essentially a tragic non sequitur then it's the Leave campaign's fault for not making its case compelling enough.
i don't think people think that maturely or logically I'm afraid.
yes if leave loses it will be down to the murder. it painted an ugly picture.
Ladbrokes Politics @LadPolitics 55s55 seconds ago Ladbrokes:
55% of bets placed so far today are for LEAVE.
Must mean that some serious money going on Remain the over way then,
Tyson's repeatedly made the point that the betting market generally knows what's what. The only caveat that I can think of is that there are a lot of wealthy people voting with heart, not head this time.
The betting market is sometimes horrifically wrong. GE2015 is a classic example.
Right now things are being driven as much by money already in the market as anything else.
No one really knows what is happening now. MORI as the only on the day poll is getting more attention than it otherwise would. It's time for the people to have their say
Very odd this MORI poll coming out today>if you are a Londoner who hasn't voted and you see a big Remain lead ( as we presume) reading your paper on the way home surely it makes you less likely to vote whichever side you support?
I agree. I don't think polls should be allowed on polling day for the reason – and I am pretty sure they weren't published on polling day in days gone by.
As soon as Farage didn't turn up for Channel 4 last night I knew Leave had lost, if he thought he was winning he would never turn down an opportunity to be on the TV.
so Cameron turns up in downing street and its a sign he has lost it Farage declines to turn up for a debate and its a sign he lost it
much straw clutching in the air :-)
Everyone's analysing chicken entrails atm.
I suspect at this point not even half the votes have been cast.
Voted about 8.10 this morning. No queue but maybe 50 had already voted. No signs, posters, tellers, anybody from either side. First time I have ever seen that. The SNP have always had signs up before.
Despite the number that had voted already (and of course the postal votes) I can't help feeling that Scottish participation will be on the low side. But we shall see...
Anecdote alert. The Good Lady Wifi - whom I always expected would vote Remain - has wobbled more than SeanT on a fairground cakewalk. She did toy with Leave, but then was swung back by Sheila Hancock in last night's debate.
This morning, she woke up and said "Fuck it, let's Leave...."
Oh, and the polling station reported business to be very brisk.
(Sorry I took so long to respond, just been trying to get some actual work done.)
Re what happened after Major's letter to Santer about the UK being obliged to accept EU legislation from which it believed it had achieved a legally-binding opt-out:
The letter was written in 1996. The government didn't get anywhere in trying to ensure they got what they had believed they had agreed to. In 1997, Tony Blair won the general election and the Labour government adopted the Social Chapter.
Do I detect Leavers starting to throw the towel in? Seems a little early. Given everything we went through with GE polling, I still think this is too close to call and Labour voters may be about to give us Remainers a shock.
It's not throwing the towel in (though I used that phrase on here ten minutes ago!). It's just that it's out of our hands now isn't it?
Remain are relying on the cautious and the young, Leave on the normally-don't-vote brigade.
As Robert says, a Remain vote is, in the short term, good for me & several other regulars on this board - investment income makes up two thirds of my overall. Sean's flat will increase in value and so on. If nothing else, we will be able to console ourselves that we didn't actually sell our souls for a mess of pottage. We can blame you .
Anecdote alert. The Good Lady Wifi - whom I always expected would vote Remain - has wobbled more than SeanT on a fairground cakewalk. She did toy with Leave, but then was swung back by Sheila Hancock in last night's debate.
This morning, she woke up and said "Fuck it, let's Leave...."
Oh, and the polling station reported business to be very brisk.
Hurrah, and a much better wake up than 'I'm leaving'!
Quiet down here - but then it was last May, too. Most vote after work.
My favourite day of election, time for me to knock up some voters.
I'm such a democrat, I'm driving a leaver to the polling station.
I would like election day too, If i got to knock up some voters. Is that a perk of the job ?
Apparently the notion that canvassers routinely bump into ladies of the house dressed in luxurious satin robes is a myth. More likely you get Rover the pitbull and dad in the string vest.
Voted about 8.10 this morning. No queue but maybe 50 had already voted. No signs, posters, tellers, anybody from either side. First time I have ever seen that. The SNP have always had signs up before.
Despite the number that had voted already (and of course the postal votes) I can't help feeling that Scottish participation will be on the low side. But we shall see...
Anecdote alert. The Good Lady Wifi - whom I always expected would vote Remain - has wobbled more than SeanT on a fairground cakewalk. She did toy with Leave, but then was swung back by Sheila Hancock in last night's debate.
This morning, she woke up and said "Fuck it, let's Leave...."
Oh, and the polling station reported business to be very brisk.
I wonder if there will be more than a few who react like that? If you really are completely undecided, I can see that there might be a certain attraction to taking the more "exciting" option of sticking two metaphorical fingers up at the establishment.
Do I detect Leavers starting to throw the towel in? Seems a little early. Given everything we went through with GE polling, I still think this is too close to call and Labour voters may be about to give us Remainers a shock.
It's not throwing the towel in (though I used that phrase on here ten minutes ago!). It's just that it's out of our hands now isn't it?
Remain are relying on the cautious and the young, Leave on the normally-don't-vote brigade.
As Robert says, a Remain vote is, in the short term, good for me & several other regulars on this board - investment income makes up two thirds of my overall. Sean's flat will increase in value and so on. If nothing else, we will be able to console ourselves that we didn't actually sell our souls for a mess of pottage. We can blame you .
What the smart money have gone bonkers over a 50/50 margin of error....very brave. Unless they have other polling that shows something else ala Tories at GE.
It's by no means in the bag. Vote for what you think is best!
We were running our very own Operation Croissant at breakfast this morning and enjoying a soft and delicious melon. I was having a Proustian Moment about the melons we used to have for starters at posh dinners: unripe, rock hard with a layer of powdered ginger on top. As your spoon hit the hard but slippery surface it would send up a cloud of ginger. You would then sneeze all over it. So I thought, Remain for Better Melons!
There was a time when a glass of tomato juice was considered a starter.
I am old enough to remember a thimble full of concentrated orange juice a stalwart starter on menus.
Thank the Lord for the Europeans and the way they saved our country from gastronomic purgatory.
Do I detect Leavers starting to throw the towel in? Seems a little early. Given everything we went through with GE polling, I still think this is too close to call and Labour voters may be about to give us Remainers a shock.
Every time I close my eyes I see the grainy, long-lens footage of Dave stalking towards his emergency Cabinet meeting. Leave are going to win. I'm psychic!
My father was a betting man. Most 5-1 on favourites win but not all of them. Some fall at the last fence. However few if any small punters invest in them. The prefer the small stakes 9/2 outsider who seldom wins but they remember when they do. But if each of us had the choice right now at even money very few even on this site would back leave. Remain will prevail today despite and not because of the gruesome twosome of Cameron and Osbourne.
What the smart money have gone bonkers over a 50/50 margin of error....very brave. Unless they have other polling that shows something else ala Tories at GE.
It makes no sense. Unless you select an outlier most polls are saying a tie within the margin of error.
@MSmithsonPB: A week and a half ago @IpsosMORI had LEAVE 6% ahead. In its final poll it has REMAIN 4% ahead
I suppose you could argue there's a big momentum here behind Remain. But going back to that chart about differential turn out, Remain needs to ahead by more unless turn out is very high.
It's by no means in the bag. Vote for what you think is best!
We were running our very own Operation Croissant at breakfast this morning and enjoying a soft and delicious melon. I was having a Proustian Moment about the melons we used to have for starters at posh dinners: unripe, rock hard with a layer of powdered ginger on top. As your spoon hit the hard but slippery surface it would send up a cloud of ginger. You would then sneeze all over it. So I thought, Remain for Better Melons!
I remember a glass of orange juice being a pretty staple starter when I first started eating out in "posh" restaurants in Birmingham in the early 80s. Corn on the cob was another one. Of course, we always chose the prawn cocktail.
Tinned tomato soup passed as restaurant fare in those day.
Thank the Lord for the Europeans, coming over here and stealing our restaurants.
I remember being taken to lunch in the UCL restaurant in the early 1990s. Duck a l'orange was the only thing on the menu. Presumably that was one of the last outposts of post-War British cuisine.
I remember visiting ICI Runcorn in the days when they had three staff eateries (workers/management/execs).
The management were always pleased to see me as that entitled them to dine in the executive 'canteen' (as they called it, presumably to show solidarity with the workers ).
We didn't eat out often in the 70s, but when we did it was always Chinese. The food always had a certain Dayglo quality. British food started improving once Maggie came in .
I also worked at ICI Runcorn and all over the ICI Mond Division as an undergraduate on a scheme for engineers.
At one site there were five tiers of restaurants. I got permission from ICI to do a study of the implications but my University department would not accept it as a final year project.
After University I did not encounter any segregated restaurants until twenty years later when I went to work at the HQ of a Clearing Bank where you were allocated to an eating mess with people of the same grade - which meant seven levels of restaurant.
"The following week, then, we dinner-party guests would be able to muse how a pig, blinded at birth by inherited syphilis, deafened by having a knitting needle inserted into both of its eardrums, and rendered utterly insentient through having ingested vast quantities of heroin, ketamine and crack cocaine, would have made a much better stab at predicting the election outcome than this unctuous pharisiacal joker"
I ended at the polling station this morning where I began in February - bitterly torn, heart saying one thing, the head saying another, and irritated and annoyed that we're having a vote at this time on this question, and feeling let down by the Prime Minister, who ultimately is responsible for this, his hopeless renegotiation and for the fallout that follows whatever the outcome.
I voted Remain, I know many on here will be dismayed by that, in truth I am a little myself, but the "head" won out. Cool hard economic reasoning (and a degree of self-interest) over emotion. I did at least hover over the boxes rather than my usual confident crossing of a box without a moment's hesitation. I even felt a bit choked.
I just want this all to be over, and let's get on with our lives again...!
This was his final Prospect article before the general election:
"General Election 2015: The Tories are still toxic David Cameron has failed to convince voters that his party are committed to raising living standards"
As a Remainer, I guess this must be what a Labour voter felt like at the GE. Rising confidence, better than expected result, progressive alliance in the bag.
I hope I don't experience the same thing they did at 10 in the evening. Actually, is there an exit poll due?
Kellner "As I think the online surveys may be overstating support for Brexit, I reckon that the likely Remain vote ahead of today’s vote was 51-55%, with 45-49% plumping for Leave."
When Kellner was at Yougov last year he was badly burned on GE night because of how wrong pollsters such as Yougov were. Now Kellner backs phone polls... Problem for Kellner could be if Yougov have actually improved their systems and weightings to the point where they are the most accurate. One little fight worth watching.
So ORB have 54/46 Remain (but 51/49 among all voters) Com Res have 54/46 Ipsos MORI have 52/48 Survation have 51/49 Yougov have 51/49 Opinium have 49/51 TNS have 49/51 (but 46/54 among likely voters).
What the smart money have gone bonkers over a 50/50 margin of error....very brave. Unless they have other polling that shows something else ala Tories at GE.
It makes no sense. Unless you select an outlier most polls are saying a tie within the margin of error.
But the margin of error works two ways. Therefore even a narrow margin in the polls translates into a reasonably high probability of the side being ahead actually winning, since there's a 50% chance they will actually do better than the poll, a chance that the poll is spot on, plus a further ??% chance that the result falls below the poll but still better than 50/50...
There has clearly been a swing back to remain in the last few days. Was this the keeping hold of nurse factor long predicted, Osborne's very clever "emergency budget" nonsense, Jo Cox, Ruth Davidson, that poster or all of the above? We will never know for sure but the only clear polling evidence points to Osborne and the very marked increase in concern about the personal finance implications of Brexit.
Leave now requires more differential turnout than currently predicted, a significant built in advantage in the 17% or so of votes cast when they were riding higher in the polls or conclusive evidence that polling companies are crap. It's not impossible but its a long shot. 6+ long shot? That still looks pretty generous to me.
Comments
Despite the number that had voted already (and of course the postal votes) I can't help feeling that Scottish participation will be on the low side. But we shall see...
(Sorry I took so long to respond, just been trying to get some actual work done.)
Re what happened after Major's letter to Santer about the UK being obliged to accept EU legislation from which it believed it had achieved a legally-binding opt-out:
The letter was written in 1996. The government didn't get anywhere in trying to ensure they got what they had believed they had agreed to. In 1997, Tony Blair won the general election and the Labour government adopted the Social Chapter.
yes if leave loses it will be down to the murder. it painted an ugly picture.
Right now things are being driven as much by money already in the market as anything else.
No one really knows what is happening now. MORI as the only on the day poll is getting more attention than it otherwise would. It's time for the people to have their say
I suspect at this point not even half the votes have been cast.
This morning, she woke up and said "Fuck it, let's Leave...."
Oh, and the polling station reported business to be very brisk.
Can't believe it wont be under 4 at least one more time.
Remain are relying on the cautious and the young, Leave on the normally-don't-vote brigade.
As Robert says, a Remain vote is, in the short term, good for me & several other regulars on this board - investment income makes up two thirds of my overall. Sean's flat will increase in value and so on. If nothing else, we will be able to console ourselves that we didn't actually sell our souls for a mess of pottage. We can blame you
Quiet down here - but then it was last May, too. Most vote after work.
It is a vote where rich and poor have the same value
Apparently the notion that canvassers routinely bump into ladies of the house dressed in luxurious satin robes is a myth. More likely you get Rover the pitbull and dad in the string vest.
thats still all the play for surely.
Very busy at my polling station.
All but YouGov of the online polls have LEAVE in the lead
I wouldn't put any money on them being later than 1140, or whatever it was - seems a risky proposition to me, if their record is nearer 1045!
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB
All the final phone polls are showing moves to LAB - a common trend.
11:32 AM - 7 May 2015
Interesting as they are Remain's private pollster.
The polls are clear.
EICIPM
I also worked at ICI Runcorn and all over the ICI Mond Division as an undergraduate on a scheme for engineers.
At one site there were five tiers of restaurants. I got permission from ICI to do a study of the implications but my University department would not accept it as a final year project.
After University I did not encounter any segregated restaurants until twenty years later when I went to work at the HQ of a Clearing Bank where you were allocated to an eating mess with people of the same grade - which meant seven levels of restaurant.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/04/the-politically-correct-way-to-do-racism/
"The following week, then, we dinner-party guests would be able to muse how a pig, blinded at birth by inherited syphilis, deafened by having a knitting needle inserted into both of its eardrums, and rendered utterly insentient through having ingested vast quantities of heroin, ketamine and crack cocaine, would have made a much better stab at predicting the election outcome than this unctuous pharisiacal joker"
http://tinyurl.com/hp6wnza
I voted Remain, I know many on here will be dismayed by that, in truth I am a little myself, but the "head" won out. Cool hard economic reasoning (and a degree of self-interest) over emotion. I did at least hover over the boxes rather than my usual confident crossing of a box without a moment's hesitation. I even felt a bit choked.
I just want this all to be over, and let's get on with our lives again...!
I just voted Remain. Now let's renegotiate Lisbon and sweep away neoliberalism with a Europe-wide revolt @ahorapodemos @GlobalDebout
Last matched price for next Conservative leader:
Boris Johnson - 4.5
Theresa May - 4.9
(George Osborne 8.6, Michael Gove 9)
EDIT
NB crossover on the next Prime Minister:
Boris Johnson - 5.3
Theresa May - 5.1
"General Election 2015: The Tories are still toxic
David Cameron has failed to convince voters that his party are committed to raising living standards"
http://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/blogs/peter-kellner/general-election-2015-the-tories-are-still-toxic
I hope I don't experience the same thing they did at 10 in the evening. Actually, is there an exit poll due?
He's been touring the US news channels talking down Leave for weeks.
When Kellner was at Yougov last year he was badly burned on GE night because of how wrong pollsters such as Yougov were. Now Kellner backs phone polls... Problem for Kellner could be if Yougov have actually improved their systems and weightings to the point where they are the most accurate. One little fight worth watching.
Com Res have 54/46
Ipsos MORI have 52/48
Survation have 51/49
Yougov have 51/49
Opinium have 49/51
TNS have 49/51 (but 46/54 among likely voters).
51.4% Remain to 48.6% Leave on average.
@charltonbrooker: I didn't take my own pen, because as far as I can tell I'm not completely fucking delusional.
Leave now requires more differential turnout than currently predicted, a significant built in advantage in the 17% or so of votes cast when they were riding higher in the polls or conclusive evidence that polling companies are crap. It's not impossible but its a long shot. 6+ long shot? That still looks pretty generous to me.
"My apologies if that is not precise enough for you. If you need a more exact forecast, I suggest you toss a coin or ask an astrologer."