By the by, is there a rule on how far away any election material has to be from a polling station. Passed anofficial banner about 100 yards (by foot, less as the crow flies,it was on a fence circling it) outside my polling station.
My recollection is that it cannot be within the precinct of the polling station - i.e. the boundary of the churchyard, school, or whatever. There is nothing to stop someone living opposite turning their whole house into a giant poster site if they want.
@Mortimer There's a base percentage of people in polls who think that X should resign no matter what the reason. In that context, only 40% wanting the Prime Minister to resign if Leave win is surprisingly low.
I can't see him hanging around too long in the event of a Leave win, mind.
'Spose.
TBH if Leave win, I wouldn't necessarily want him to resign straight away. Announce his intention to, sure, but not actually go to the palace.
I've urged Dave to do this in the event of a Leave victory.
BTW belated thanks to whoever it was that tipped Higher Power at Kempton Park on here yesterday - I know nothing about horse racing but as the tip came my way I risked a few £, and as a 9/2 winner I now have enough to buy a nice bottle of wine for this evening....
Good for you, old chap. Always nice to have a free bottle of something decent.
A few years ago this site used to be uncommonly good for racing tips. I had a superb day at Goodwood and my best ever day at the races, solely based on one chap on here giving me the winners in the first three races and if, memory serves, the second in the 5th.
Alas as PoliticalBetting morphed into Political Discusssion those knowledgeable punters have moved on. Though for me it is not to much of a problem (when I retired my wife made me promise only to do cash bets, failing eyesight means I can't get to the races much and the nearest bookies is a bus ride away), but it is a shame for you active chaps.
I walked down Highgate Road to Kentish Town tube statin this morning. Remain posters everywhere - in the windows of the big £2 million houses and the council flats - and a big team outside the station itself. Much more activity than at the general election. If you lived in that part of London you could be forgiven for believing that Remain is going to walk this.
Living in the Midlands has given me a much better perspective on English political outlooks. I love London, but it operates in such a bubble. It really is a different country, clichéd as that sounds.
Just voted. Remain people everywhere. They say the polling is 'Significantly higher' than the GE
Just put a bet on 70-80% even money
For the first time in my polling station (local library) they had two desks, one for streets in the first half of the alphabet, one in the second. Clearly anticipating demand - must be costing the council more than usual if repeated throughout the borough, or does central govt fund the costs?
Long time lurker, I used to post occasionally about 5years ago.
Anecdote alert!
Anecdote #1: Rural village in Buckinghamshire voting in prime post-school drop-off time. Villager stating "How do you vote then? Do I need ID? Will this take long?". Suggests high turn out.
Anecdote #2: Canadian (sub-continent family origin) in my office (London) late 20s on a work VISA. Knows a lot of other Canadians and they are split 50/50 - I would have expected far more for Remain. Those for Leave are very strongly for it - they want to see far closer relationships within the Commonwealth. He is likely to vote Leave!
By the by, is there a rule on how far away any election material has to be from a polling station. Passed anofficial banner about 100 yards (by foot, less as the crow flies,it was on a fence circling it) outside my polling station.
No, there's no official rule. If it's on private land, it's fine. In fact, one objective of any decent campaign ought to be recuiting poster sites within sight of the polling stations.
If ever there was an atmosphere for a shy voter effect in the polls, it is for this election.One side has been accused of murder.
Depends where you live i guess. In sunny Sussex if you show any inclination towards Remain you're treated like a leper.
I bet that is only in parts ie not places like Brighton where I suspect the opposite applies.
Difference is that in if you get called a leper for remaining you can shrug it off, it is a toothless threat. Get yourself labelled racist Xeno or Homphobe or whatever for expressing support for Brexit and that could have real negative consequences for your future.
How on earth is there any relation between Leave and homophobia?
@Mortimer There's a base percentage of people in polls who think that X should resign no matter what the reason. In that context, only 40% wanting the Prime Minister to resign if Leave win is surprisingly low.
I can't see him hanging around too long in the event of a Leave win, mind.
'Spose.
TBH if Leave win, I wouldn't necessarily want him to resign straight away. Announce his intention to, sure, but not actually go to the palace.
I've urged Dave to do this in the event of a Leave victory.
Am I right in thinking that the last IPSOS MORI showed a Leave lead? If so, a four point Remain win is surely a big move. Direction of travel and all that.
That said, it may be time for another little Leave flutter. The odds are horribly tempting, but my wife would kill me if I put even more money on this.
The last Ipsos had Leave winning London.
No it didn't. That was a subsample, which is baloney – not weighted.
Mr. Betting, quite. Mason's off his head. Says he dislikes the EU because it can't be a democracy but wants to stay in to prevent the democratically elected government having a free hand.
Mr. Tokyo, Cameron remaining or not may not be his choice to make.
Not unusual. Lots of people only like the kind of democracy that means their preferred party get to govern. Like the SJWs who protested against the Tory government when it won with 37% of the vote, but not the Labour one that won with 35% of the vote.
I see Betfair is now offering Evens on whether Remain beats 54.5%. For people who think the polls are overstating Remain surely this is a safer bet than leave winning at 6/1?
I walked down Highgate Road to Kentish Town tube statin this morning. Remain posters everywhere - in the windows of the big £2 million houses and the council flats - and a big team outside the station itself. Much more activity than at the general election. If you lived in that part of London you could be forgiven for believing that Remain is going to walk this.
Most media and pundits -do- live in places like that.
Long time lurker, I used to post occasionally about 5years ago.
Anecdote alert!
Anecdote #1: Rural village in Buckinghamshire voting in prime post-school drop-off time. Villager stating "How do you vote then? Do I need ID? Will this take long?". Suggests high turn out.
Anecdote #2: Canadian (sub-continent family origin) in my office (London) late 20s on a work VISA. Knows a lot of other Canadians and they are split 50/50 - I would have expected far more for Remain. Those for Leave are very strongly for it - they want to see far closer relationships within the Commonwealth. He is likely to vote Leave!
@Mortimer There's a base percentage of people in polls who think that X should resign no matter what the reason. In that context, only 40% wanting the Prime Minister to resign if Leave win is surprisingly low.
I can't see him hanging around too long in the event of a Leave win, mind.
'Spose.
TBH if Leave win, I wouldn't necessarily want him to resign straight away. Announce his intention to, sure, but not actually go to the palace.
I've urged Dave to do this in the event of a Leave victory.
BTW belated thanks to whoever it was that tipped Higher Power at Kempton Park on here yesterday - I know nothing about horse racing but as the tip came my way I risked a few £, and as a 9/2 winner I now have enough to buy a nice bottle of wine for this evening....
Good for you, old chap. Always nice to have a free bottle of something decent.
A few years ago this site used to be uncommonly good for racing tips. I had a superb day at Goodwood and my best ever day at the races, solely based on one chap on here giving me the winners in the first three races and if, memory serves, the second in the 5th.
Alas as PoliticalBetting morphed into Political Discusssion those knowledgeable punters have moved on. Though for me it is not to much of a problem (when I retired my wife made me promise only to do cash bets, failing eyesight means I can't get to the races much and the nearest bookies is a bus ride away), but it is a shame for you active chaps.
Agreed.
Scott P has had some good gee gees tips recently. Thanks Scott!
Mr. Gin, I agree. There should only be one poll on the day itself.
I think Ladbrokes sticking up the odds outside a polling station is not on. Bookies are there to make a profit but influencing voters as they go into the booth is not acceptable.
I walked down Highgate Road to Kentish Town tube statin this morning. Remain posters everywhere - in the windows of the big £2 million houses and the council flats - and a big team outside the station itself. Much more activity than at the general election. If you lived in that part of London you could be forgiven for believing that Remain is going to walk this.
Living in the Midlands has given me a much better perspective on English political outlooks. I love London, but it operates in such a bubble. It really is a different country, clichéd as that sounds.
My prediction formula is giving a result in Camden of 74% Remain if England is 50/50. In other words 70% Remain in Camden may mean Brexit. Shows how divided the country may be tomorrow morning.
BTW belated thanks to whoever it was that tipped Higher Power at Kempton Park on here yesterday - I know nothing about horse racing but as the tip came my way I risked a few £, and as a 9/2 winner I now have enough to buy a nice bottle of wine for this evening....
Good for you, old chap. Always nice to have a free bottle of something decent.
A few years ago this site used to be uncommonly good for racing tips. I had a superb day at Goodwood and my best ever day at the races, solely based on one chap on here giving me the winners in the first three races and if, memory serves, the second in the 5th.
Alas as PoliticalBetting morphed into Political Discusssion those knowledgeable punters have moved on. Though for me it is not to much of a problem (when I retired my wife made me promise only to do cash bets, failing eyesight means I can't get to the races much and the nearest bookies is a bus ride away), but it is a shame for you active chaps.
Agreed.
Scott P has had some good gee gees tips recently. Thanks Scott!
Just don't ask him for tips on solving the Monty Hall problem....
I see Betfair is now offering Evens on whether Remain beats 54.5%. For people who think the polls are overstating Remain surely this is a safer bet than leave winning at 6/1?
I believe if Leave win there should be a General election, Cameron stays as PM. Article 50 not enacted till after GE. Therefore the GE becomes about electing our negotiating team and about shaping post Brexit U. Doubt it will happen like that but that would be democratic.
If remain do win can I appeal to all those remainer's to be magnanimous to the leavers here who will be absolutely devastated. They have been quite bullish for some time now and I believe David Cameron will set the tone on a remain win and demonstrate to the Nation that he is not only an outstanding leader but also is able to be kind to those who are hurting. Leave may yet win but it does seem unlikely. I am sure we can all agree that we need time to get back to normal service and for this forum to continue as the finest political commentary in the UK ( and the EU)
BTW belated thanks to whoever it was that tipped Higher Power at Kempton Park on here yesterday - I know nothing about horse racing but as the tip came my way I risked a few £, and as a 9/2 winner I now have enough to buy a nice bottle of wine for this evening....
Good for you, old chap. Always nice to have a free bottle of something decent.
A few years ago this site used to be uncommonly good for racing tips. I had a superb day at Goodwood and my best ever day at the races, solely based on one chap on here giving me the winners in the first three races and if, memory serves, the second in the 5th.
Alas as PoliticalBetting morphed into Political Discusssion those knowledgeable punters have moved on. Though for me it is not to much of a problem (when I retired my wife made me promise only to do cash bets, failing eyesight means I can't get to the races much and the nearest bookies is a bus ride away), but it is a shame for you active chaps.
Agreed.
Scott P has had some good gee gees tips recently. Thanks Scott!
Just don't ask him for tips on solving the Monty Hall problem....
Just voted. Remain people everywhere. They say the polling is 'Significantly higher' than the GE
Just put a bet on 70-80% even money
For the first time in my polling station (local library) they had two desks, one for streets in the first half of the alphabet, one in the second. Clearly anticipating demand - must be costing the council more than usual if repeated throughout the borough, or does central govt fund the costs?
If remain do win can I appeal to all those remainer's to be magnanimous to the leavers here who will be absolutely devastated. They have been quite bullish for some time now and I believe David Cameron will set the tone on a remain win and demonstrate to the Nation that he is not only an outstanding leader but also is able to be kind to those who are hurting. Leave may yet win but it does seem unlikely. I am sure we can all agree that we need time to get back to normal service and for this forum to continue to the finest political commentary in the UK ( and the EU)
I'd make the same comments the other way - though it is looking less likely to be the outcome.
Just voted. Was surprised the ballots are done on white, photocopier paper, black ink. The ballot papers for our work bake-off are more secure than that.
Your bake-off ballot papers are all individually serial-numbered on the back, perforated by a pattern of dots kept secret until the day, and counted out and back to balance the count with the number issued? And you keep a complete record of which numbered paper went to which voter? Impressive stuff indeed....
If remain do win can I appeal to all those remainer's to be magnanimous to the leavers here who will be absolutely devastated. They have been quite bullish for some time now and I believe David Cameron will set the tone on a remain win and demonstrate to the Nation that he is not only an outstanding leader but also is able to be kind to those who are hurting. Leave may yet win but it does seem unlikely. I am sure we can all agree that we need time to get back to normal service and for this forum to continue as the finest political commentary in the UK ( and the EU)
Been telling for 90 minutes now at a polling station in Hart. Steady flow of voters. 2-3 every 2-3 minutes.
About seven or eight very enthusiastic Leavers keen to tell me they're Leave, giving encouragement and thumbs up.
Remain lady next to us hasn't got any of that but about half of people are just staring at their feet, or ignoring both sides, and walking straight into the polling station.
Mr. NorthWales, I tend to get e-mail from the Conservatives and actual mail from Labour (the Lib Dems are kind enough to ignore me). Not sure I've had anything beyond the odd e-mail during the campaign.
Incidentally, my parents both gets leaflets from Leave on the same day, but they were different (one was about the NHS, the other something else). Interesting, as it suggests some attempt at sophisticated targeting.
I believe if Leave win there should be a General election, Cameron stays as PM. Article 50 not enacted till after GE. Therefore the GE becomes about electing our negotiating team and about shaping post Brexit U. Doubt it will happen like that but that would be democratic.
Hmm what would happen if Labour stood on a platform of not signing it, and they then win. wouldn't the general election trump the referendum...
What was the real reason Farage pulled out of last night's debate? First the rumour spread that a family member had been attacked. Then it was reported he had "simply decided" to go to dinner with his 27-year-old son, whom he hadn't seen for nine months. The only way that could be true is if his son said "it's now or never, Dad". If that's what happened, I could understand Farage choosing to meet with his son. In similar circumstances, I would certainly put my son first. But it sounds unlikely.
Many people don't like Farage - and I'm one of them - but he has always struck me as competent. Why has he turned into such a twit this morning, saying "I do think we are in with a very strong chance, I do genuinely. But it's all about turnout and those soft remainers staying at home". Couldn't he have said something that was actually a message to his own side, such as "It's important that people who are thinking they might vote to Leave, but who aren't sure, make up their minds and get out and vote, because we're not going to get another chance"?
I'll vote Remain, but I think Leave will win. It was the Sun, the Daily Mail and the queen what won it.
Funny how the involvement of the queen on the eve of the vote, in Britain's most-read newspaper, hasn't brought much comment.
Been telling for 90 minutes now at a polling station in Hart. Steady flow of voters. 2-3 every 2-3 minutes.
About seven or eight very enthusiastic Leavers keen to tell me they're Leave, giving encouragement and thumbs up.
Remain lady next to us hasn't got any of that but about half of people are just staring at their feet, or ignoring both sides, and walking straight into the polling station.
Are you actually telling - i.e. collecting polling numbers? Impressive GOTV operation if so.
If remain do win can I appeal to all those remainer's to be magnanimous to the leavers here who will be absolutely devastated. They have been quite bullish for some time now and I believe David Cameron will set the tone on a remain win and demonstrate to the Nation that he is not only an outstanding leader but also is able to be kind to those who are hurting. Leave may yet win but it does seem unlikely. I am sure we can all agree that we need time to get back to normal service and for this forum to continue as the finest political commentary in the UK ( and the EU)
Good stuff, Sir.
If remain win I will be so sorry for your hurt and hope that you will be able to return, in due course, to supporting the Conservative Party in the management of this great Country of ours, whether In or out
Presumably Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem and Green are using their party systems for the REMAIN Get Out The Vote process.
But only UKIP using their party system for the LEAVE GOTV process.
Disadvantage LEAVE.
Nope. The Tory party is neutral.
Have been received daily e mails, sometimes twice or more, from the In campaign. Absolutely unrelenting
I've not had a single one from my local Tories - nor one from local Labour. I expected something from them, not a dicky bird. They both send me a regular circular/come to this event stuff.
The publisher wanted to change the series' title to Rumpy-pumpy Chronicles/Tales. Whilst a fun word, I felt that'd make it appear the whole thing was of that nature, whereas Sir Edric has many vices (greed, clinging to grudges like a toddler with a blanket, gluttony, being mostly drunk etc).
Just voted LEAVE - very busy down at my normally rather sleepy polling station (personally canvassed - it's a leave area). Those betting on a low turnout are unlikely to be receiving a payout
If remain do win can I appeal to all those remainer's to be magnanimous to the leavers here who will be absolutely devastated. They have been quite bullish for some time now and I believe David Cameron will set the tone on a remain win and demonstrate to the Nation that he is not only an outstanding leader but also is able to be kind to those who are hurting. Leave may yet win but it does seem unlikely. I am sure we can all agree that we need time to get back to normal service and for this forum to continue as the finest political commentary in the UK ( and the EU)
Good stuff, Sir.
If remain win I will be so sorry for your hurt and hope that you will be able to return, in due course, to supporting the Conservative Party in the management of this great Country of ours, whether In or out
Well, speaking for myself, a certain chancellor's proximity to the leadership matters immensely.
The big fight today is between those who want to leave the EU - and those who want to leave the EU but are too scared of the consequences.
The number of people who want to stay in the EU because it is wonderful are tiny.
I would estimate about 20-25% positively want to stay, particularly at the younger end of the spectrum. I would also say that most people don't have a scooby doo about the EU. The ignorance and misinformation is appalling when you hear Joe Public being interviewed. It has become the convenient scapegoat to blame for all their problems. That's why Leave is doing so well, they can project everyone's concerns on the EU and promise them everything will be better if we just leave.
Of course if we do leave within a year everyone will be blaming all their woes on Brexit.
I am sanguine about the result, fortunate enough not to be affected either way but I am expecting the buyer's remorse to swift and harsh if we leave, particularly once we opt for a solution that maintains freedom of movement as I am certain we will.
I'm also expecting buyer's remorse to be swift and harsh if we vote to Remain! The EU has been walking on egg-shells, saying nothing that could rock the boat for a couple of months. There's going to be pent-up stuff coming out that will get more than a few people spitting nails...
I'm sure.
And then, Dave produces his piece of paper saying: No Ever Closer Union.
And PUUFFFFFFFFFT! All that pent-up stuff will be repelled.
Ah! The old "Holding up a piece of paper with a solemn promise on it" tactic.
Remind me again how well that worked out for Neville Chamberlain.
Actually it worked out very well for both Chamberlain and the country. It did not stop WW2 of course, but it bought enough time for the UK to rearm and especially for Fighter Command to get in place Radar (as it became known) and to build enough modern fighters to enable the Battle of Britain to be won.
Chamberlain, by then very ill with terminal cancer, was forced to step down after the Norway fiasco but nonetheless played a very important part in keeping Churchill in power against the machinations of the surrender monkey, Lord Halifax.
Chamberlain has been the victim of shocking bad press, much of which is undeserved.
7 in 10 Con MPs probably voting LEAVE.. "Even a substantial Remain win doesn’t change the parliamentary arithmetic; with a working majority of 18 he will need to rely on the support of the numerous MPs that the Cameron-led Remain campaign has spent the past months vilifying. On which note, while ‘only’ 140 Tory MPs (42%) declared publicly their support for Leave, ComRes found in a March 2016 survey of MPs – conducted anonymously – that a whopping seven in ten Conservatives intended to vote to Leave. " Andrew Hawkins
If remain do win can I appeal to all those remainer's to be magnanimous to the leavers here who will be absolutely devastated. They have been quite bullish for some time now and I believe David Cameron will set the tone on a remain win and demonstrate to the Nation that he is not only an outstanding leader but also is able to be kind to those who are hurting. Leave may yet win but it does seem unlikely. I am sure we can all agree that we need time to get back to normal service and for this forum to continue as the finest political commentary in the UK ( and the EU)
Like the morning after the Scottish referendum vote? I would not put it past him to start talking up the euro.
I see Betfair is now offering Evens on whether Remain beats 54.5%. For people who think the polls are overstating Remain surely this is a safer bet than leave winning at 6/1?
Safer but not as lucrative.
True. Personally I think 54.5% may turn out to be close to fair value - but if I was of your view I think I would make it akin to an each-way bet by dividing my stake equally between the two positions, such that if leave didn't win my hopeful win on the Evens position covers my stake.
Just voted. Was surprised the ballots are done on white, photocopier paper, black ink. The ballot papers for our work bake-off are more secure than that.
Your bake-off ballot papers are all individually serial-numbered on the back, perforated by a pattern of dots kept secret until the day, and counted out and back to balance the count with the number issued? And you keep a complete record of which numbered paper went to which voter? Impressive stuff indeed....
Our antiquated polling system works very well indeed. It would be very hard - some might say impossible - to game it to a large degree.
Widespread modern postal voting is less so, although I doubt PV fraud is as widespread as some think.
In comparison, electronic voting is untrustworthy with current technology. And that goes for both EV-at-polling-station as well as EV-from-home systems.
Mr. NorthWales, I tend to get e-mail from the Conservatives and actual mail from Labour (the Lib Dems are kind enough to ignore me). Not sure I've had anything beyond the odd e-mail during the campaign.
Incidentally, my parents both gets leaflets from Leave on the same day, but they were different (one was about the NHS, the other something else). Interesting, as it suggests some attempt at sophisticated targeting.
I walked down Highgate Road to Kentish Town tube statin this morning. Remain posters everywhere - in the windows of the big £2 million houses and the council flats - and a big team outside the station itself. Much more activity than at the general election. If you lived in that part of London you could be forgiven for believing that Remain is going to walk this.
Living in the Midlands has given me a much better perspective on English political outlooks. I love London, but it operates in such a bubble. It really is a different country, clichéd as that sounds.
My prediction formula is giving a result in Camden of 74% Remain if England is 50/50. In other words 70% Remain in Camden may mean Brexit. Shows how divided the country may be tomorrow morning.
I would not be surprised to see a higher than 74% vote in Camden for Remain. It's not impossible that it will be the most pro-Remain place in the whole country. And turnout will be pretty high too, I'd imagine.
Just voted. Was surprised the ballots are done on white, photocopier paper, black ink. The ballot papers for our work bake-off are more secure than that.
Your bake-off ballot papers are all individually serial-numbered on the back, perforated by a pattern of dots kept secret until the day, and counted out and back to balance the count with the number issued? And you keep a complete record of which numbered paper went to which voter? Impressive stuff indeed....
Our antiquated polling system works very well indeed. It would be very hard - some might say impossible - to game it to a large degree.
Widespread modern postal voting is less so, although I doubt PV fraud is as widespread as some think.
In comparison, electronic voting is untrustworthy with current technology. And that goes for both EV-at-polling-station as well as EV-from-home systems.
Welcome back JJ. Really good to see you on here. Hope the health is still improving.
I believe if Leave win there should be a General election, Cameron stays as PM. Article 50 not enacted till after GE. Therefore the GE becomes about electing our negotiating team and about shaping post Brexit U. Doubt it will happen like that but that would be democratic.
Hmm what would happen if Labour stood on a platform of not signing it, and they then win. wouldn't the general election trump the referendum...
Could be academic now, but it could be possible.
Don't believe that is a tenable position, they will not win if they took that line which i hope that wouldn't do
Suppose Mr Cameron stands outside No 10 and says (following a narrow Leave win)( as he is fully entitled to do).
"The results of the referendum are inconclusive. I therefore feel that as it is in the best interests of the Country, I will not be invoking article 50."
Just voted. Was surprised the ballots are done on white, photocopier paper, black ink. The ballot papers for our work bake-off are more secure than that.
Your bake-off ballot papers are all individually serial-numbered on the back, perforated by a pattern of dots kept secret until the day, and counted out and back to balance the count with the number issued? And you keep a complete record of which numbered paper went to which voter? Impressive stuff indeed....
Our antiquated polling system works very well indeed. It would be very hard - some might say impossible - to game it to a large degree.
Widespread modern postal voting is less so, although I doubt PV fraud is as widespread as some think.
In comparison, electronic voting is untrustworthy with current technology. And that goes for both EV-at-polling-station as well as EV-from-home systems.
Welcome back JJ. Really good to see you on here. Hope the health is still improving.
Thanks. Sadly not. Have emerged from my hovel for the fun 'n games today and tonight, after which I might re-lurk.
If remain do win can I appeal to all those remainer's to be magnanimous to the leavers here who will be absolutely devastated. They have been quite bullish for some time now and I believe David Cameron will set the tone on a remain win and demonstrate to the Nation that he is not only an outstanding leader but also is able to be kind to those who are hurting. Leave may yet win but it does seem unlikely. I am sure we can all agree that we need time to get back to normal service and for this forum to continue as the finest political commentary in the UK ( and the EU)
Good stuff, Sir.
If remain win I will be so sorry for your hurt and hope that you will be able to return, in due course, to supporting the Conservative Party in the management of this great Country of ours, whether In or out
Well, speaking for myself, a certain chancellor's proximity to the leadership matters immensely.
Just voted. Was surprised the ballots are done on white, photocopier paper, black ink. The ballot papers for our work bake-off are more secure than that.
Your bake-off ballot papers are all individually serial-numbered on the back, perforated by a pattern of dots kept secret until the day, and counted out and back to balance the count with the number issued? And you keep a complete record of which numbered paper went to which voter? Impressive stuff indeed....
Our antiquated polling system works very well indeed. It would be very hard - some might say impossible - to game it to a large degree.
Widespread modern postal voting is less so, although I doubt PV fraud is as widespread as some think.
In comparison, electronic voting is untrustworthy with current technology. And that goes for both EV-at-polling-station as well as EV-from-home systems.
Welcome back JJ. Really good to see you on here. Hope the health is still improving.
Thanks. Sadly not. Have emerged from my hovel for the fun 'n games today and tonight, after which I might re-lurk.
Good to see you back JJ, I wondered about you yesterday. How is the sprog?
'Today is a really good day for democracy. For British voters have been entrusted to make a real decision. A decision that could have a massive impact on both British politics and the global order.
Where in recent years voting in General Elections has come to feel routine, and possibly even a little pointless, given you couldn’t squeeze so much as a beermat between the policy programmes of the main parties, today’s vote feels heavy, solid, like we’ve been given real democratic responsibility.
I know that when I cast my ballot early this morning — for Leave — I felt powerful in a way that I didn’t on the two occasions I’ve voted in General Elections. I felt like a true democratic citizen, making a choice that could make a ripple in history itself, and make the future look very different to what we have today. It felt good.
Comments
Order in council? Doesn't that need a meeting of PC?
A few years ago this site used to be uncommonly good for racing tips. I had a superb day at Goodwood and my best ever day at the races, solely based on one chap on here giving me the winners in the first three races and if, memory serves, the second in the 5th.
Alas as PoliticalBetting morphed into Political Discusssion those knowledgeable punters have moved on. Though for me it is not to much of a problem (when I retired my wife made me promise only to do cash bets, failing eyesight means I can't get to the races much and the nearest bookies is a bus ride away), but it is a shame for you active chaps.
Living in the Midlands has given me a much better perspective on English political outlooks. I love London, but it operates in such a bubble. It really is a different country, clichéd as that sounds.
Anecdote alert!
Anecdote #1: Rural village in Buckinghamshire voting in prime post-school drop-off time. Villager stating "How do you vote then? Do I need ID? Will this take long?". Suggests high turn out.
Anecdote #2: Canadian (sub-continent family origin) in my office (London) late 20s on a work VISA. Knows a lot of other Canadians and they are split 50/50 - I would have expected far more for Remain. Those for Leave are very strongly for it - they want to see far closer relationships within the Commonwealth. He is likely to vote Leave!
The turnout in places like that is the key.
A bit like the signing of The Treaty of Lisbon, our PM just signs it.
Is that's Shadsy's local polling station? (I assume he is just out of shot)
Scott P has had some good gee gees tips recently. Thanks Scott!
I think Ladbrokes sticking up the odds outside a polling station is not on. Bookies are there to make a profit but influencing voters as they go into the booth is not acceptable.
But only UKIP using their party system for the LEAVE GOTV process.
Disadvantage LEAVE.
Miss Jones, quite. Leadsom nailed Sturgeon on this point: some people want to be in the EU so it can override our democratically elected government.
About seven or eight very enthusiastic Leavers keen to tell me they're Leave, giving encouragement and thumbs up.
Remain lady next to us hasn't got any of that but about half of people are just staring at their feet, or ignoring both sides, and walking straight into the polling station.
There isn't the public polling evidence to back up the price.
Incidentally, my parents both gets leaflets from Leave on the same day, but they were different (one was about the NHS, the other something else). Interesting, as it suggests some attempt at sophisticated targeting.
Could be academic now, but it could be possible.
Many people don't like Farage - and I'm one of them - but he has always struck me as competent. Why has he turned into such a twit this morning, saying "I do think we are in with a very strong chance, I do genuinely. But it's all about turnout and those soft remainers staying at home". Couldn't he have said something that was actually a message to his own side, such as "It's important that people who are thinking they might vote to Leave, but who aren't sure, make up their minds and get out and vote, because we're not going to get another chance"?
I'll vote Remain, but I think Leave will win. It was the Sun, the Daily Mail and the queen what won it.
Funny how the involvement of the queen on the eve of the vote, in Britain's most-read newspaper, hasn't brought much comment.
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Adventures-Edric-Hero-Hornska-Book-ebook/dp/B01DOSP9ZK
The publisher wanted to change the series' title to Rumpy-pumpy Chronicles/Tales. Whilst a fun word, I felt that'd make it appear the whole thing was of that nature, whereas Sir Edric has many vices (greed, clinging to grudges like a toddler with a blanket, gluttony, being mostly drunk etc).
Chamberlain, by then very ill with terminal cancer, was forced to step down after the Norway fiasco but nonetheless played a very important part in keeping Churchill in power against the machinations of the surrender monkey, Lord Halifax.
Chamberlain has been the victim of shocking bad press, much of which is undeserved.
There's a hell of a lot of very ropey private polling.
"Even a substantial Remain win doesn’t change the parliamentary arithmetic; with a working majority of 18 he will need to rely on the support of the numerous MPs that the Cameron-led Remain campaign has spent the past months vilifying. On which note, while ‘only’ 140 Tory MPs (42%) declared publicly their support for Leave, ComRes found in a March 2016 survey of MPs – conducted anonymously – that a whopping seven in ten Conservatives intended to vote to Leave. "
Andrew Hawkins
Found it very difficult to get response from VoteLeave website.
I fear, then, that Cameron's worse. He hasn't bought anything for the UK.
Widespread modern postal voting is less so, although I doubt PV fraud is as widespread as some think.
In comparison, electronic voting is untrustworthy with current technology. And that goes for both EV-at-polling-station as well as EV-from-home systems.
Google predicts Brexit win.
"The results of the referendum are inconclusive. I therefore feel that as it is in the best interests of the Country, I will not be invoking article 50."
I'm hoping to win some money,
@Jobabob
Subsamples are building blocks. If one of them is awry...
Remain 55
Leave 45
Sample 4,700
Fieldwork 21st/22nd June
http://www.spiked-online.com/newsite/article/why-today-is-a-great-day-for-democracy/18488#.V2vEZiFVikp
'Today is a really good day for democracy. For British voters have been entrusted to make a real decision. A decision that could have a massive impact on both British politics and the global order.
Where in recent years voting in General Elections has come to feel routine, and possibly even a little pointless, given you couldn’t squeeze so much as a beermat between the policy programmes of the main parties, today’s vote feels heavy, solid, like we’ve been given real democratic responsibility.
I know that when I cast my ballot early this morning — for Leave — I felt powerful in a way that I didn’t on the two occasions I’ve voted in General Elections. I felt like a true democratic citizen, making a choice that could make a ripple in history itself, and make the future look very different to what we have today. It felt good.
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/745933382014603264