The big fight today is between those who want to leave the EU - and those who want to leave the EU but are too scared of the consequences.
The number of people who want to stay in the EU because it is wonderful are tiny.
I would estimate about 20-25% positively want to stay, particularly at the younger end of the spectrum. I would also say that most people don't have a scooby doo about the EU. The ignorance and misinformation is appalling when you hear Joe Public being interviewed. It has become the convenient scapegoat to blame for all their problems. That's why Leave is doing so well, they can project everyone's concerns on the EU and promise them everything will be better if we just leave.
Of course if we do leave within a year everyone will be blaming all their woes on Brexit.
I am sanguine about the result, fortunate enough not to be affected either way but I am expecting the buyer's remorse to swift and harsh if we leave, particularly once we opt for a solution that maintains freedom of movement as I am certain we will.
I'm also expecting buyer's remorse to be swift and harsh if we vote to Remain! The EU has been walking on egg-shells, saying nothing that could rock the boat for a couple of months. There's going to be pent-up stuff coming out that will get more than a few people spitting nails...
I'm sure.
And then, Dave produces his piece of paper saying: No Ever Closer Union.
And PUUFFFFFFFFFT! All that pent-up stuff will be repelled.
You mean the piece of paper the Euro-judges are going to point and laugh at?
Does anyone know the likely proportion of votes that will bE POSTAL? A further point the majority of postal votes are likely to have been cast when leave was more strongly ahead in the polls.This could provide leave with significant lead in vote going into polling day.
There was a poster here the other day who (sorry don't recollect who) had calculated the postal votes and indicated that on these leave was around 2 million ahead. The inference from that was that Remain needed to get at lease 53% of the votes cast today in the polling stations to get a win.
An odd feeling voting: never before have I felt so sure about which box to put my cross in. For me, the democratic arguments for leave outweigh the economic argument for remain.
Yes I voted with so little hesitation today that I actually had to check I'd put a cross in the correct box.
Does anyone know what you do if that happens?
My guess is that it is a spoilt/invalid ballot
If you've filled in and posted/dropped your ballot into the box and then realise you have made a mistake, it is tough luck. If you still have the paper you can cross out your mistaken cross and write another, and it should be accepted as a valid vote during the adjudication of doubtful papers at the count.
Anecdotal (Another) My colleague's 18 year old daughter didn't even realise there was a referendum on apparently !
Wow. How does she get her news such that she's completely missed the fact of the referendum? I can understand not knowing it was today, but not knowing it was on at all?
I suspect that she's leading her parents on. It's a bit like those people who "didn't realise" their 15 year old was pregnant until the baby surprises them.
An odd feeling voting: never before have I felt so sure about which box to put my cross in. For me, the democratic arguments for leave outweigh the economic argument for remain.
Yes I voted with so little hesitation today that I actually had to check I'd put a cross in the correct box.
Does anyone know what you do if that happens?
My guess is that it is a spoilt/invalid ballot
If you've filled in and posted/dropped your ballot into the box and then realise you have made a mistake, it is tough luck. If you still have the paper you can cross out your mistaken cross and write another, and it should be accepted as a valid vote during the adjudication of doubtful papers at the count.
Oh, I had thought glw said he had to check he had actually marked the ballot at all! I guess clearly crossing it out and making another mark should be sufficient!
Voted remain this morning. Long quest at Riverside 1/2 in London this morning, much higher turnout in Riverside 2 (Shad Thames) than Riverside 1 (London/Tower bridge surrounds), which looks good for Remain but may signify nothing more than phasing. Have felt throughout the campaign that Leave is ahead but not significantly and I sense that may have changed in the last few days. The country could deliver either result today; it depends on the relative turnout of three groups ABC1(young), C2DE and the old.
My most sincere hope is that if Remain have just edged it, as I suspect they might have, Cameron delivers a barnstorming, statesman-like speech that is aimed at healing divisions within his party, respects the result but sends a message to Europe about the urgent need for change, together with a commitment to help deliver that change. I hope then the more ardent leavers stay their hands - it would be catastrophic for the party, and damaging for the country, if they carry on their personal feud having been defeated, however narrowly. No letters to Graham Brady, no defections, no leadership challenges please. Cameron in turn must not provoke his rivals.
Of course, if it's a Leave vote Cameron may as well start packing tonight.
Mr. Seller, getting along sounds great, but it doesn't include the notion of foreign judges being able to impose laws upon us.
My mother's being agonising over how to vote. Last night she was saying we should've had a vote around the time of Maastricht, when it changed from being a trading bloc to a political union.
She's absolutely right. That's exactly what we should have done.
So she shouldn't be agonising about her vote at all, if that's what she wants.
The big fight today is between those who want to leave the EU - and those who want to leave the EU but are too scared of the consequences.
The number of people who want to stay in the EU because it is wonderful are tiny.
I would estimate about 20-25% positively want to stay, particularly at the younger end of the spectrum. I would also say that most people don't have a scooby doo about the EU. The ignorance and misinformation is appalling when you hear Joe Public being interviewed. It has become the convenient scapegoat to blame for all their problems. That's why Leave is doing so well, they can project everyone's concerns on the EU and promise them everything will be better if we just leave.
Of course if we do leave within a year everyone will be blaming all their woes on Brexit.
I am sanguine about the result, fortunate enough not to be affected either way but I am expecting the buyer's remorse to swift and harsh if we leave, particularly once we opt for a solution that maintains freedom of movement as I am certain we will.
I'm also expecting buyer's remorse to be swift and harsh if we vote to Remain! The EU has been walking on egg-shells, saying nothing that could rock the boat for a couple of months. There's going to be pent-up stuff coming out that will get more than a few people spitting nails...
I'm sure.
And then, Dave produces his piece of paper saying: No Ever Closer Union.
And PUUFFFFFFFFFT! All that pent-up stuff will be repelled.
You mean the piece of paper the Euro-judges are going to point and laugh at?
This piece of paper:
Regarding the Decision in Annex 1, the Heads of State or Government have declared that:
(i) this Decision gives legal guarantee that the matters of concern to the United Kingdom as expressed in the letter of 10 November 2015 have been addressed;
ii) the content of the Decision is fully compatible with the Treaties;
(iii) this Decision is legally binding, and may be amended or repealed only by common accord of the Heads of State or Government of the Member States of the European Union;
(iv) this Decision will take effect on the date the Government of the United Kingdom informs the Secretary-General of the Council that the United Kingdom has decided to remain a member of the European Union.
An odd feeling voting: never before have I felt so sure about which box to put my cross in. For me, the democratic arguments for leave outweigh the economic argument for remain.
Yes I voted with so little hesitation today that I actually had to check I'd put a cross in the correct box.
Does anyone know what you do if that happens?
My guess is that it is a spoilt/invalid ballot
If you've filled in and posted/dropped your ballot into the box and then realise you have made a mistake, it is tough luck. If you still have the paper you can cross out your mistaken cross and write another, and it should be accepted as a valid vote during the adjudication of doubtful papers at the count.
You can ask for another ballot paper if you've made a mistake and not yet put it in the ballot box.
An odd feeling voting: never before have I felt so sure about which box to put my cross in. For me, the democratic arguments for leave outweigh the economic argument for remain.
Yes I voted with so little hesitation today that I actually had to check I'd put a cross in the correct box.
Does anyone know what you do if that happens?
You have to eat your ballot paper, then ask for a replacement.
The big fight today is between those who want to leave the EU - and those who want to leave the EU but are too scared of the consequences.
The number of people who want to stay in the EU because it is wonderful are tiny.
I think you are missing a significant block in the middle. People who don't think the EU is wonderful but think it is ok, with positives and negatives, and therefore don't want to leave.
Absolutely - step outside the rarified atmosphere of the political wonks on this forum, and there is a whole world of people out there who just want a quiet life, who have friends (and increasingly family) from or in other parts of Europe, who are horrified by the rhetoric and just want 'everyone to get along and play nicely' (which pretty much sums up the whole EU project and its primary success over the past 60 years).
And you know what? I'm with them. Let's hope the end of today doesn't end up as Banana Republic Britain at the mercy of US conglomerates, Chinese property cash, Russian billionaires, upper-class tax exiles and Rupert effing Murdoch. Independence Day? Don't make me laugh. Traitors and quislings? Pots and kettles more like.
+1
In my experience, once you get beyond the handful of anti-EU fanatics, many of the people who like to whinge about the EU know next to nothing about it. It's just a group of more powerful "other people" that is handy to blame for the world's ills. The Scots don't have the same need since they already have England for that purpose.
Voted remain this morning. Long quest at Riverside 1/2 in London this morning, much higher turnout in Riverside 2 (Shad Thames) than Riverside 1 (London/Tower bridge surrounds), which looks good for Remain but may signify nothing more than phasing. Have felt throughout the campaign that Leave is ahead but not significantly and I sense that may have changed in the last few days. The country could deliver either result today; it depends on the relative turnout of three groups ABC1(young), C2DE and the old.
My most sincere hope is that if Remain have just edged it, as I suspect they might have, Cameron delivers a barnstorming, statesman-like speech that is aimed at healing divisions within his party, respects the result but sends a message to Europe about the urgent need for change, together with a commitment to help deliver that change. I hope then the more ardent leavers stay their hands - it would be catastrophic for the party, and damaging for the country, if they carry on their personal feud having been defeated, however narrowly. No letters to Graham Brady, no defections, no leadership challenges please. Cameron in turn must not provoke his rivals.
Of course, if it's a Leave vote Cameron may as well start packing tonight.
My view is that Mr Cameron will no more be able to deliver change than a resolute barnacle could save the Titanic.
Well for PBers' bank accounts' sakes I do hope that their political forecasting is better than their weather forecasting. Instead of posting nonsense like "it will rain all day in London" why not look at the radar, which clearly shows the band of rain clearing out to the East. It is not raining in London and hasn't been for almost an hour.
If you've filled in and posted/dropped your ballot into the box and then realise you have made a mistake, it is tough luck. If you still have the paper you can cross out your mistaken cross and write another, and it should be accepted as a valid vote during the adjudication of doubtful papers at the count.
So I could scribble through the wrong cross and put another cross in the correct box and that would be interpreted as a clear preference?
I voted on the way into work. I was leaning remain for most of the campaign, had decided yesterday for remain. However I saw the ITV poll last night and saw it was pretty much in the bag for remain, so I took the opportunity this morning to go with heart not head...
An odd feeling voting: never before have I felt so sure about which box to put my cross in. For me, the democratic arguments for leave outweigh the economic argument for remain.
Yes I voted with so little hesitation today that I actually had to check I'd put a cross in the correct box.
Does anyone know what you do if that happens?
You have to eat your ballot paper, then ask for a replacement.
Anecdotal (Another) My colleague's 18 year old daughter didn't even realise there was a referendum on apparently !
I can believe that.
I'm sure there will be 1000s and 1000s for which that is the case.
I have no clue of the outcome today, but I haven't seen any evidence that my peers in the under 30s are any more enthused over this vote than any other.
I agree with your hopes for the result but not for Cameron's future.
If he does win it will be on the back of votes from Scotland, Northern Ireland, Gibraltar, London and enough Labour voters. He and Osbourne should pack their bags. Their miserable campaign has inspired no-one at all.
I voted on the way into work. I was leaning remain for most of the campaign, had decided yesterday for remain. However I saw the ITV poll last night and saw it was pretty much in the bag for remain, so I took the opportunity this morning to go with heart not head...
I voted on the way into work. I was leaning remain for most of the campaign, had decided yesterday for remain. However I saw the ITV poll last night and saw it was pretty much in the bag for remain, so I took the opportunity this morning to go with heart not head...
Interesting. I wonder how many will have done that.
Lots of people posting photos of their completed ballot papers on Twitter. Isn't taking photos supposed to be banned in polling stations?
twitter.com/ukMegadeth/status/745895379363860480
Banned. The ban protects voters from outside pressure. Several years ago in Italy members of the Mafia were told to bring back photos of their ballots to prove they voted for the candidates supported by their crime syndicate.
3 polling station reports from Hampshire. Posted for fun.
Two polling stations in semi-urban middle class area that votes Lib dem, has a trickle of voters 8.15 - 9. Somewhat above local election levels (40%) but below GE level (>70%).
At a rural poll station 3/4 saying they voted LEAVE.
If you've filled in and posted/dropped your ballot into the box and then realise you have made a mistake, it is tough luck. If you still have the paper you can cross out your mistaken cross and write another, and it should be accepted as a valid vote during the adjudication of doubtful papers at the count.
So I could scribble through the wrong cross and put another cross in the correct box and that would be interpreted as a clear preference?
Yes, the law is quite clear that if the paper shows a clear and valid preference, then the vote counts. On the electoral commission website there is a pdf with illustrations of doubtful papers and whether they should be counted or not, and the "crossed out" scenario is one of the examples given. Any election agent worth his or her salt will have a copy of said pdf in their pocket at a count.
Does anyone know the likely proportion of votes that will bE POSTAL? A further point the majority of postal votes are likely to have been cast when leave was more strongly ahead in the polls.This could provide leave with significant lead in vote going into polling day.
20-25%.
Sean do you think postal votes will TO Leaves advantage reflect their higher poll ratings at the period of time where postal votes were returned?
I think that postal votes will favour Leave, because postal voters are older than average, but I don't think the poll ratings at the time will make much difference, as postal voters tend to be strongly committed already. It's estimated that about 3,000 postal voters will have died by 10 pm tonight, which gives Leave a tiny advantage.
What's the position if a postal voter dies before the count. Is their vote still valid?
That depends on whether they've completed it before they died!
Voted remain this morning. Long quest at Riverside 1/2 in London this morning, much higher turnout in Riverside 2 (Shad Thames) than Riverside 1 (London/Tower bridge surrounds), which looks good for Remain but may signify nothing more than phasing. Have felt throughout the campaign that Leave is ahead but not significantly and I sense that may have changed in the last few days. The country could deliver either result today; it depends on the relative turnout of three groups ABC1(young), C2DE and the old.
My most sincere hope is that if Remain have just edged it, as I suspect they might have, Cameron delivers a barnstorming, statesman-like speech that is aimed at healing divisions within his party, respects the result but sends a message to Europe about the urgent need for change, together with a commitment to help deliver that change. I hope then the more ardent leavers stay their hands - it would be catastrophic for the party, and damaging for the country, if they carry on their personal feud having been defeated, however narrowly. No letters to Graham Brady, no defections, no leadership challenges please. Cameron in turn must not provoke his rivals.
Of course, if it's a Leave vote Cameron may as well start packing tonight.
If the EU was going to offer real reform, it would have done so before this referendum. If Remain wins, then this will be taken as a sign that the UK has voted for "more Europe".
Cameron is on record as stating that he wants to use the referendum to "permanently dock the UK into the EU". He's not going to be out there fighting for reform (unless it is to make sure we can never get anywhere near as close to leaving ever again).
Voted remain this morning. Long quest at Riverside 1/2 in London this morning, much higher turnout in Riverside 2 (Shad Thames) than Riverside 1 (London/Tower bridge surrounds), which looks good for Remain but may signify nothing more than phasing. Have felt throughout the campaign that Leave is ahead but not significantly and I sense that may have changed in the last few days. The country could deliver either result today; it depends on the relative turnout of three groups ABC1(young), C2DE and the old.
My most sincere hope is that if Remain have just edged it, as I suspect they might have, Cameron delivers a barnstorming, statesman-like speech that is aimed at healing divisions within his party, respects the result but sends a message to Europe about the urgent need for change, together with a commitment to help deliver that change. I hope then the more ardent leavers stay their hands - it would be catastrophic for the party, and damaging for the country, if they carry on their personal feud having been defeated, however narrowly. No letters to Graham Brady, no defections, no leadership challenges please. Cameron in turn must not provoke his rivals.
Of course, if it's a Leave vote Cameron may as well start packing tonight.
My view is that Mr Cameron will no more be able to deliver change than a resolute barnacle could save the Titanic.
Agreed he will make a speech and f*** all will happen.
My most sincere hope is that if Remain have just edged it, as I suspect they might have, Cameron delivers a barnstorming, statesman-like speech that is aimed at healing divisions within his party, respects the result but sends a message to Europe about the urgent need for change, together with a commitment to help deliver that change.
The big fight today is between those who want to leave the EU - and those who want to leave the EU but are too scared of the consequences.
The number of people who want to stay in the EU because it is wonderful are tiny.
I would estimate about 20-25% positively want to stay, particularly at the younger end of the spectrum. I would also say that most people don't have a scooby doo about the EU. The ignorance and misinformation is appalling when you hear Joe Public being interviewed. It has become the convenient scapegoat to blame for all their problems. That's why Leave is doing so well, they can project everyone's concerns on the EU and promise them everything will be better if we just leave.
Of course if we do leave within a year everyone will be blaming all their woes on Brexit.
I am sanguine about the result, fortunate enough not to be affected either way but I am expecting the buyer's remorse to swift and harsh if we leave, particularly once we opt for a solution that maintains freedom of movement as I am certain we will.
I'm also expecting buyer's remorse to be swift and harsh if we vote to Remain! The EU has been walking on egg-shells, saying nothing that could rock the boat for a couple of months. There's going to be pent-up stuff coming out that will get more than a few people spitting nails...
I'm sure.
And then, Dave produces his piece of paper saying: No Ever Closer Union.
And PUUFFFFFFFFFT! All that pent-up stuff will be repelled.
You mean the piece of paper the Euro-judges are going to point and laugh at?
This piece of paper:
Regarding the Decision in Annex 1, the Heads of State or Government have declared that:
(i) this Decision gives legal guarantee that the matters of concern to the United Kingdom as expressed in the letter of 10 November 2015 have been addressed;
ii) the content of the Decision is fully compatible with the Treaties;
(iii) this Decision is legally binding, and may be amended or repealed only by common accord of the Heads of State or Government of the Member States of the European Union;
(iv) this Decision will take effect on the date the Government of the United Kingdom informs the Secretary-General of the Council that the United Kingdom has decided to remain a member of the European Union.
Voted remain this morning. Long quest at Riverside 1/2 in London this morning, much higher turnout in Riverside 2 (Shad Thames) than Riverside 1 (London/Tower bridge surrounds), which looks good for Remain but may signify nothing more than phasing. Have felt throughout the campaign that Leave is ahead but not significantly and I sense that may have changed in the last few days. The country could deliver either result today; it depends on the relative turnout of three groups ABC1(young), C2DE and the old.
My most sincere hope is that if Remain have just edged it, as I suspect they might have, Cameron delivers a barnstorming, statesman-like speech that is aimed at healing divisions within his party, respects the result but sends a message to Europe about the urgent need for change, together with a commitment to help deliver that change. I hope then the more ardent leavers stay their hands - it would be catastrophic for the party, and damaging for the country, if they carry on their personal feud having been defeated, however narrowly. No letters to Graham Brady, no defections, no leadership challenges please. Cameron in turn must not provoke his rivals.
Of course, if it's a Leave vote Cameron may as well start packing tonight.
Cameron should own the victory, if Remain win. He has been brilliant in the closing days of the campaign.
Pointless anecdote time: voting reported much busier than for the mayoral election. I can't directly compare, however, because I voted about two hours later than last month.
No teller outside today, which isn't a great surprise as TTBOMK neither side canvassed - but without tellers and canvassing how does GOTV work?
An odd feeling voting: never before have I felt so sure about which box to put my cross in. For me, the democratic arguments for leave outweigh the economic argument for remain.
Yes I voted with so little hesitation today that I actually had to check I'd put a cross in the correct box.
Does anyone know what you do if that happens?
My guess is that it is a spoilt/invalid ballot
If you've filled in and posted/dropped your ballot into the box and then realise you have made a mistake, it is tough luck. If you still have the paper you can cross out your mistaken cross and write another, and it should be accepted as a valid vote during the adjudication of doubtful papers at the count.
You can ask for another ballot paper if you've made a mistake and not yet put it in the ballot box.
True. In May I helped a gent who had received his postal vote in several pieces courtesy of, most probably, one of Royal Mail's sorting machines. We took all the pieces back to the ERO and they sent him another one.
Voted remain this morning. Long quest at Riverside 1/2 in London this morning, much higher turnout in Riverside 2 (Shad Thames) than Riverside 1 (London/Tower bridge surrounds), which looks good for Remain but may signify nothing more than phasing. Have felt throughout the campaign that Leave is ahead but not significantly and I sense that may have changed in the last few days. The country could deliver either result today; it depends on the relative turnout of three groups ABC1(young), C2DE and the old.
My most sincere hope is that if Remain have just edged it, as I suspect they might have, Cameron delivers a barnstorming, statesman-like speech that is aimed at healing divisions within his party, respects the result but sends a message to Europe about the urgent need for change, together with a commitment to help deliver that change. I hope then the more ardent leavers stay their hands - it would be catastrophic for the party, and damaging for the country, if they carry on their personal feud having been defeated, however narrowly. No letters to Graham Brady, no defections, no leadership challenges please. Cameron in turn must not provoke his rivals.
Of course, if it's a Leave vote Cameron may as well start packing tonight.
Cameron should own the victory, if Remain win. He has been brilliant in the closing days of the campaign.
Done my civic duty on behalf of the young 'uns. Polling here in a prosperous, rural, solid Tory area (which I think will split fairly evenly) was the busiest I've known.
Am expecting a news wall of EU-manure to be poured over all of our heads once Remain is confirmed as the winner.
Yep.
EU Army, all have to speak Polish, kettle whistles must be to tune of Marseillaise.
And then guess what? A N Other Party (UKIP perchance) puts it in their manifesto that we must Leave the EU and hey presto, 100% majority at the next GE and out we go.
Anecdote alert !!!! Some of you may know that I play a lot of online Bridge ( on the BCL website ) . The referendum has been much discussed on their comments board . Although the demographics are of a majority of older members which should clearly favour Leave the consensus is running around 70/30 for Remain .
Looking at the radar the heavy rain over London should clear in an hour or two
back pm i understand. northern ireland's due to cop a wet afternoon according to bbc forecast just now and scotland moist but you expect that there in summer ;-)
The big fight today is between those who want to leave the EU - and those who want to leave the EU but are too scared of the consequences.
The number of people who want to stay in the EU because it is wonderful are tiny.
I would estimate about 20-25% positively want to se them everything will be better if we just leave.
Of course if we do leave within a year everyone will be blaming all their woes on Brexit.
I am sanguine about the result, fortunate enough not to be affected either way but I am expecting the buyer's remorse to swift and harsh if we leave, particularly once we opt for a solution that maintains freedom of movement as I am certain we will.
I'm also expecting buyer's remorse to be swift and harsh if we vote to Remain! The EU has been walking on egg-shells, saying nothing that could rock the boat for a couple of months. There's going to be pent-up stuff coming out that will get more than a few people spitting nails...
I'm sure.
And then, Dave produces his piece of paper saying: No Ever Closer Union.
And PUUFFFFFFFFFT! All that pent-up stuff will be repelled.
You mean the piece of paper the Euro-judges are going to point and laugh at?
This piece of paper:
Regarding the Decision in Annex 1, the Heads of State or Government have declared that:
(i) this Decision gives legal guarantee that the matters of concern to the United Kingdom as expressed in the letter of 10 November 2015 have been addressed;
ii) the content of the Decision is fully compatible with the Treaties;
(iii) this Decision is legally binding, and may be amended or repealed only by common accord of the Heads of State or Government of the Member States of the European Union;
(iv) this Decision will take effect on the date the Government of the United Kingdom informs the Secretary-General of the Council that the United Kingdom has decided to remain a member of the European Union.
Ever heard of ultra vires?
You have it the wrong way around. The laws are determined by the EU bodies and the ECJ interprets those laws. The EU has just made another law, in effect.
All the ECJ can do is to refer to the law, in this case the one created by the Heads of State or Government, and say - oh yes, that's all in order.
Edit: because I am totally an expert on European Law, its formulation, and its interpretation.
The big fight today is between those who want to leave the EU - and those who want to leave the EU but are too scared of the consequences.
The number of people who want to stay in the EU because it is wonderful are tiny.
I would estimate about 20-25% positively want to se them everything will be better if we just leave.
Of course if we do leave within a year everyone will be blaming all their woes on Brexit.
I am sanguine about the result, fortunate enough not to be affected either way but I am expecting the buyer's remorse to swift and harsh if we leave, particularly once we opt for a solution that maintains freedom of movement as I am certain we will.
I'm also expecting buyer's remorse to be swift and harsh if we vote to Remain! The EU has been walking on egg-shells, saying nothing that could rock the boat for a couple of months. There's going to be pent-up stuff coming out that will get more than a few people spitting nails...
I'm sure.
And then, Dave produces his piece of paper saying: No Ever Closer Union.
And PUUFFFFFFFFFT! All that pent-up stuff will be repelled.
You mean the piece of paper the Euro-judges are going to point and laugh at?
This piece of paper:
Regarding the Decision in Annex 1, the Heads of State or Government have declared that:
(i) this Decision gives legal guarantee that the matters of concern to the United Kingdom as expressed in the letter of 10 November 2015 have been addressed;
ii) the content of the Decision is fully compatible with the Treaties;
(iii) this Decision is legally binding, and may be amended or repealed only by common accord of the Heads of State or Government of the Member States of the European Union;
(iv) this Decision will take effect on the date the Government of the United Kingdom informs the Secretary-General of the Council that the United Kingdom has decided to remain a member of the European Union.
Ever heard of ultra vires?
You have it the wrong way around. The laws are determined by the EU bodies and the ECJ interprets those laws. The EU has just made another law, in effect.
All the ECJ can do is to refer to the law, in this case the one created by the Heads of State or Government, and say - oh yes, that's all in order.
Surely such a "law" has to be ratified/confirmed by the Parliament. The Council can't just decide what the laws are and aren't.
The big fight today is between those who want to leave the EU - and those who want to leave the EU but are too scared of the consequences.
The number of people who want to stay in the EU because it is wonderful are tiny.
I think you are missing a significant block in the middle. People who don't think the EU is wonderful but think it is ok, with positives and negatives, and therefore don't want to leave.
Absolutely - step outside the rarified atmosphere of the political wonks on this forum, and there is a whole world of people out there who just want a quiet life, who have friends (and increasingly family) from or in other parts of Europe, who are horrified by the rhetoric and just want 'everyone to get along and play nicely' (which pretty much sums up the whole EU project and its primary success over the past 60 years).
And you know what? I'm with them. Let's hope the end of today doesn't end up as Banana Republic Britain at the mercy of US conglomerates, Chinese property cash, Russian billionaires, upper-class tax exiles and Rupert effing Murdoch. Independence Day? Don't make me laugh. Traitors and quislings? Pots and kettles more like.
But none of the Remain side have made those kinds of arguments. The irony is that most of the Remain leadership have no problem with those things. They just want us to stay in the EU to make it less small c conservative and embrace a valueless 'globalisation'.
Looking at the radar the heavy rain over London should clear in an hour or two
back pm i understand. northern ireland's due to cop a wet afternoon according to bbc forecast just now and scotland moist but you expect that there in summer ;-)
Markets signalling it is all over. Stock and currencies all rising . How can they tell at tbis stage
Could be a trick and someone's about to make a vast fortune.
Its a market, the same as those we bet on - which are showing the same thing. Rightly or wrongly, the money both from punters and financiers is being put on a Remain win.
@TOPPING Didn't John Majopr think he had won some legally-binding opt-outs? Turned out, they weren't wortn the paper they were written on.
Full text of letter from John Major, Prime Minister, to His Excellency Monsieur Jacques Santer, 12 November 1996:
“ARTICLE 118A of the TREATY ESTABLISHING THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITY
My intention in agreeing to the Protocol on Social Policy at Maastricht was to ensure that social legislation which placed unnecessary burdens on businesses and damaged competitiveness could not be imposed on the United Kingdom. The other Heads of State and Governments also agreed that arrangement, without which there would have been no agreement at all at Maastricht.
However, in its judgment today, the European Court of Justice has ruled that the scope of Article 118A is much broader than the United Kingdom envisaged when the article was originally agreed, as part of the Single European Act.
This appears to mean that legislation which the United Kingdom had expected would be dealt with under the Protocol can in fact be adopted under Article 118A.
That is contrary to the clear and express wishes of the United Kingdom Government, and goes directly counter to the spirit of what we agreed at Maastricht. It is unacceptable and must be remedied.
The United Kingdom will therefore table amendments in the inter-governmental Conference to restore the position to that which the United Kingdom Government intended following the Maastricht agreement. Those amendments will be aimed at both ensuring that Article 118A cannot in future be used in ways contrary to the United Kingdom’s expectation, and dealing with the specific problem of the Working Time Directive.
I attach the utmost importance to these amendments and I shall insist that they form part of the outcome of the Intergovernmental Conference. I do not see how new agreements can be reached if earlier agreements are undermined.
Meanwhile, I urge the Commission to refrain from making proposals under Article 118A which properly belong under the other Members States’ Agreement on Social Policy.
I am sending copies of this letter to the Heads of State or Governments of European Union Member States.
Done my civic duty on behalf of the young 'uns. Polling here in a prosperous, rural, solid Tory area (which I think will split fairly evenly) was the busiest I've known.
No, you've done your "civic duty" for Cameron and Osborne.
The big fight today is between those who want to leave the EU - and those who want to leave the EU but are too scared of the consequences.
The number of people who want to stay in the EU because it is wonderful are tiny.
I would everyone will be blaming all their woes on Brexit.
I am sanguine about the result, fortunate enough not to be affected either way but I am expecting the buyer's remorse to swift and harsh if we leave, particularly once we opt for a solution that maintains freedom of movement as I am certain we will.
I'm also expecting buyer's remorse to be swift and harsh if we vote to Remain! The EU has been walking on egg-shells, saying nothing that could rock the boat for a couple of months. There's going to be pent-up stuff coming out that will get more than a few people spitting nails...
I'm sure.
And then, Dave produces his piece of paper saying: No Ever Closer Union.
And PUUFFFFFFFFFT! All that pent-up stuff will be repelled.
You mean the piece of paper the Euro-judges are going to point and laugh at?
This piece of paper:
Regarding the Decision in Annex 1, the Heads of State or Government have declared that:
(i) this Decision gives legal guarantee that the matters of concern to the United Kingdom as expressed in the letter of 10 November 2015 have been addressed;
ii) the content of the Decision is fully compatible with the Treaties;
(iii) this Decision is legally binding, and may be amended or repealed only by common accord of the Heads of State or Government of the Member States of the European Union;
(iv) this Decision will take effect on the date the Government of the United Kingdom informs the Secretary-General of the Council that the United Kingdom has decided to remain a member of the European Union.
Ever heard of ultra vires?
You have it the wrong way around. The laws are determined by the EU bodies and the ECJ interprets those laws. The EU has just made another law, in effect.
All the ECJ can do is to refer to the law, in this case the one created by the Heads of State or Government, and say - oh yes, that's all in order.
Surely such a "law" has to be ratified/confirmed by the Parliament. The Council can't just decide what the laws are and aren't.
no bloody clue.
But it seems logical. I mean the one thing the EU is good at (indeed it's why most Leavers want to Leave for heaven's sake) is to make binding directives.
Voted remain this morning. Long quest at Riverside 1/2 in London this morning, much higher turnout in Riverside 2 (Shad Thames) than Riverside 1 (London/Tower bridge surrounds), which looks good for Remain but may signify nothing more than phasing. Have felt throughout the campaign that Leave is ahead but not significantly and I sense that may have changed in the last few days. The country could deliver either result today; it depends on the relative turnout of three groups ABC1(young), C2DE and the old.
My most sincere hope is that if Remain have just edged it, as I suspect they might have, Cameron delivers a barnstorming, statesman-like speech that is aimed at healing divisions within his party, respects the result but sends a message to Europe about the urgent need for change, together with a commitment to help deliver that change. I hope then the more ardent leavers stay their hands - it would be catastrophic for the party, and damaging for the country, if they carry on their personal feud having been defeated, however narrowly. No letters to Graham Brady, no defections, no leadership challenges please. Cameron in turn must not provoke his rivals.
Of course, if it's a Leave vote Cameron may as well start packing tonight.
If the EU was going to offer real reform, it would have done so before this referendum. If Remain wins, then this will be taken as a sign that the UK has voted for "more Europe".
Cameron is on record as stating that he wants to use the referendum to "permanently dock the UK into the EU". He's not going to be out there fighting for reform (unless it is to make sure we can never get anywhere near as close to leaving ever again).
There is no consensus in the EU about what "reform" looks like, so essentially getting 28 countries to agree on it is essentially impossible.
And, ultimately, while we say "reform", what we really want is two destination Europe. I.e., an economic bloc and a political block. We only wish to be in the first of these two. (And many on this site don't even want to be in that.)
Lets face it, the polls are unproven, discredited and are showing a statistical tie. Most assume Remain will win based on the bookies.
Seems majority of bets were for Leave, but bigs bets on Remain distorted the odds.
This in its turn, caused currency rates to change significantly. To make millions on exchange rates, 25k bets are a good investment.
Visiting this site has taught me that in this event, people believe and choose their data. I dont know how things will pan out, so will ignore the noise and wait for the result.
Anecdote alert !!!! Some of you may know that I play a lot of online Bridge ( on the BCL website ) . The referendum has been much discussed on their comments board . Although the demographics are of a majority of older members which should clearly favour Leave the consensus is running around 70/30 for Remain .
Perhaps being Bridge players they have an IQ of over 100 which favours Remain?
Comments
twitter.com/ukMegadeth/status/745895379363860480
No idea how scientific or accurate that was.
My most sincere hope is that if Remain have just edged it, as I suspect they might have, Cameron delivers a barnstorming, statesman-like speech that is aimed at healing divisions within his party, respects the result but sends a message to Europe about the urgent need for change, together with a commitment to help deliver that change. I hope then the more ardent leavers stay their hands - it would be catastrophic for the party, and damaging for the country, if they carry on their personal feud having been defeated, however narrowly. No letters to Graham Brady, no defections, no leadership challenges please. Cameron in turn must not provoke his rivals.
Of course, if it's a Leave vote Cameron may as well start packing tonight.
So she shouldn't be agonising about her vote at all, if that's what she wants.
Regarding the Decision in Annex 1, the Heads of State or Government have declared that:
(i) this Decision gives legal guarantee that the matters of concern to the United Kingdom as expressed in the letter of 10 November 2015 have been addressed;
ii) the content of the Decision is fully compatible with the Treaties;
(iii) this Decision is legally binding, and may be amended or repealed only by common accord of the Heads of State or Government of the Member States of the European Union;
(iv) this Decision will take effect on the date the Government of the United Kingdom informs the Secretary-General of the Council that the United Kingdom has decided to remain a member of the European Union.
(I think half of the above statement is correct)
In my experience, once you get beyond the handful of anti-EU fanatics, many of the people who like to whinge about the EU know next to nothing about it. It's just a group of more powerful "other people" that is handy to blame for the world's ills. The Scots don't have the same need since they already have England for that purpose.
http://www.raintoday.co.uk
Voted Leave and didn't feel the slightest wobble.
Happy voting to PBers who haven't yet cast their vote.
If you make a mistake on your ballot you can also ask to swap it for a new one.
I agree with your hopes for the result but not for Cameron's future.
If he does win it will be on the back of votes from Scotland, Northern Ireland, Gibraltar, London and enough Labour voters. He and Osbourne should pack their bags. Their miserable campaign has inspired no-one at all.
And welcome back
The ban protects voters from outside pressure. Several years ago in Italy members of the Mafia were told to bring back photos of their ballots to prove they voted for the candidates supported by their crime syndicate.
Two polling stations in semi-urban middle class area that votes Lib dem, has a trickle of voters 8.15 - 9. Somewhat above local election levels (40%) but below GE level (>70%).
At a rural poll station 3/4 saying they voted LEAVE.
IANAP.
Sort SeanT out!
#useless anecdotes
Cameron is on record as stating that he wants to use the referendum to "permanently dock the UK into the EU". He's not going to be out there fighting for reform (unless it is to make sure we can never get anywhere near as close to leaving ever again).
Am expecting a news wall of EU-manure to be poured over all of our heads once Remain is confirmed as the winner.
No teller outside today, which isn't a great surprise as TTBOMK neither side canvassed - but without tellers and canvassing how does GOTV work?
Greenwich borough.
EU Army, all have to speak Polish, kettle whistles must be to tune of Marseillaise.
And then guess what? A N Other Party (UKIP perchance) puts it in their manifesto that we must Leave the EU and hey presto, 100% majority at the next GE and out we go.
Or possibly just the proxy vote system
Some of you may know that I play a lot of online Bridge ( on the BCL website ) . The referendum has been much discussed on their comments board . Although the demographics are of a majority of older members which should clearly favour Leave the consensus is running around 70/30 for Remain .
All the ECJ can do is to refer to the law, in this case the one created by the Heads of State or Government, and say - oh yes, that's all in order.
Edit: because I am totally an expert on European Law, its formulation, and its interpretation.
Didn't John Majopr think he had won some legally-binding opt-outs? Turned out, they weren't wortn the paper they were written on.
Full text of letter from John Major, Prime Minister, to His
Excellency Monsieur Jacques Santer, 12 November 1996:
“ARTICLE 118A of the TREATY ESTABLISHING THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITY
My intention in agreeing to the Protocol on Social Policy at
Maastricht was to ensure that social
legislation which placed unnecessary burdens on businesses and
damaged competitiveness could not be imposed on the United Kingdom.
The other Heads of State and Governments also agreed that
arrangement, without which there would have been no agreement at all
at Maastricht.
However, in its judgment today, the European Court of Justice has
ruled that the scope of Article 118A is much broader than the United
Kingdom envisaged when the article was originally agreed, as part of
the Single European Act.
This appears to mean that legislation which the United Kingdom had
expected would be dealt with under the Protocol can in fact be
adopted under Article 118A.
That is contrary to the clear and express wishes of the United
Kingdom Government, and goes directly counter to the spirit of what
we agreed at Maastricht. It is unacceptable and must be remedied.
The United Kingdom will therefore table amendments in the
inter-governmental Conference to restore the position to that which
the United Kingdom Government intended following the Maastricht
agreement. Those amendments will be aimed at both ensuring that
Article 118A cannot in future be used in ways contrary to the United
Kingdom’s expectation, and dealing with the specific problem of the
Working Time Directive.
I attach the utmost importance to these amendments and I shall insist
that they form part of the outcome of the Intergovernmental
Conference. I do not see how new agreements can be reached if earlier
agreements are undermined.
Meanwhile, I urge the Commission to refrain from making proposals
under Article 118A which properly belong under the other Members
States’ Agreement on Social Policy.
I am sending copies of this letter to the Heads of State or
Governments of European Union Member States.
Yours sincerely,
John Major”
But it seems logical. I mean the one thing the EU is good at (indeed it's why most Leavers want to Leave for heaven's sake) is to make binding directives.
And, ultimately, while we say "reform", what we really want is two destination Europe. I.e., an economic bloc and a political block. We only wish to be in the first of these two. (And many on this site don't even want to be in that.)
Lets face it, the polls are unproven, discredited and are showing a statistical tie. Most assume Remain will win based on the bookies.
Seems majority of bets were for Leave, but bigs bets on Remain distorted the odds.
This in its turn, caused currency rates to change significantly. To make millions on exchange rates, 25k bets are a good investment.
Visiting this site has taught me that in this event, people believe and choose their data. I dont know how things will pan out, so will ignore the noise and wait for the result.