Mori must have leaked. Leave price is sliding away beyond 6.
Seriously, after all this is over TSE and Mike should do a thread about the need to shield polling from prying eyes. It is insider trading writ large and it is not cricket.
The best system would be one whereby polls may be that polls have to be released the moment they are complete.
Or confirmation bias?
I'm actually amazed how much the markets move 5-10 mins after polls published!
It's by no means in the bag. Vote for what you think is best!
We were running our very own Operation Croissant at breakfast this morning and enjoying a soft and delicious melon. I was having a Proustian Moment about the melons we used to have for starters at posh dinners: unripe, rock hard with a layer of powdered ginger on top. As your spoon hit the hard but slippery surface it would send up a cloud of ginger. You would then sneeze all over it. So I thought, Remain for Better Melons!
There was a time when a glass of tomato juice was considered a starter.
The Guardian is reporting Sky will publish a YouGov at 10pm. Recontacting folk in it's final poll to ask how they actually voted. IIRC the approach worked OK in Indyref.
At least two PBers have been approached by YouGov for that.
I'm very suspicious of Yougovs, I've been in far too many relative to my 1/30,000,000th of the total vote or so I represent.
After last year's fiasco I am convinced they haven't got a clue, and by they I mean all of them.
Yesterday alone saw a 6pt lead for Remain alongside a 7pt lead for Leave.
The Guardian is reporting Sky will publish a YouGov at 10pm. Recontacting folk in it's final poll to ask how they actually voted. IIRC the approach worked OK in Indyref.
But was a disaster for GE2015
It intrinsically works better for a national referendum than a GE.
Mr. Roger, it might stand for Intelligence Quotient or similar but it just measures logical reasoning, which is related to but not the same thing as intelligence.
The Guardian is reporting Sky will publish a YouGov at 10pm. Recontacting folk in it's final poll to ask how they actually voted. IIRC the approach worked OK in Indyref.
Didn't work last year - and lots of people who should have known better called it an exit poll.
Michael Crick C4 News says Leave Campaign think they have big lead in Postal Vote esp in Labour areas.
Who know's anymore...
Postal votes started to come in during peak Leave. Wouldn't be a surprise.
Indeed, who knows? But I think later polls should have locked in and factored in postal votes that had already been submitted. If you have already voted and are asked, "How are you voting?" would you say anything different from what you actually voted?
It wasn't what I meant and you know fine well it wasn't/
It depends what you mean by "accept the result" I suppose. If Leave win I accept we will leave the EU in the next few years, but I will still argue for rejoining as soon as possible. I imagine Leavers will do the same in reverse.
In other words, neither side will accept the result. I agree.
I worry about the number of people who seem to have lost faith in the legitimacy of the entire process. It's easy to mock the "vote in pen" crowd, but they seem to be getting more numerous. It makes me sad that we've got to the stage where a significant minority of people actually believe that our electoral process will be rigged by the government. I don't think they'll accept the result if it doesn't go their way.
We also have some saying the results would be unfair because of tactics (not breaches of law or anything) used that might convince people (the Cox effect) - which is silly as people are allowed to vote for stupid reasons
It's by no means in the bag. Vote for what you think is best!
We were running our very own Operation Croissant at breakfast this morning and enjoying a soft and delicious melon. I was having a Proustian Moment about the melons we used to have for starters at posh dinners: unripe, rock hard with a layer of powdered ginger on top. As your spoon hit the hard but slippery surface it would send up a cloud of ginger. You would then sneeze all over it. So I thought, Remain for Better Melons!
There was a time when a glass of tomato juice was considered a starter.
I am old enough to remember a thimble full of concentrated orange juice a stalwart starter on menus.
Thank the Lord for the Europeans and the way they saved our country from gastronomic purgatory.
You have it the wrong way around. The laws are determined by the EU bodies and the ECJ interprets those laws. The EU has just made another law, in effect.
All the ECJ can do is to refer to the law, in this case the one created by the Heads of State or Government, and say - oh yes, that's all in order.
Edit: because I am totally an expert on European Law, its formulation, and its interpretation.
Nope. The ECJ refers to the treaties not the law for primacy for its decisions. It interprets the law based upon the treaties. This is why it can overturn non-treaty agreements if it decides they are in conflict with the treaties.
Yes I agree.
That language is pretty unambiguous, though:
(iii) this Decision is legally binding, and may be amended or repealed only by common accord of the Heads of State or Government of the Member States of the European Union;
so if it is amended, or repealed, or there is an attempt to do so by the ECJ, the government of the day cries blue murder.
I don't know what the outcome was of John Major's infamous letter (sites only ever print the letter, not the follow up). But if the ECJ, say, tries to strike down the deal, and we say: "oh ok then", then I will be alongside you marching on parliament.
Not really. As I have said on here before people misunderstand the role of the ECJ. It is not evil. It is not political. It was set up to make sure that all decisions of the EU are in accordance with the treaties and to enforce that on behalf of the citizens of the EU, not the member states.
All it will take is one individual making a petition to the ECJ about something in the agreement and they are bound by law to rule on it. Since none of the agreement is currently part of an EU treaty it is entirely possible they will rule against it.
By the way, I see Liverpool University are less than happy with Michael Dougan, your favourite EU law expert. Apparently they feel he has brought the university into disrepute by failing to make clear he holds the Jean Monnet Seat at the University (which gets them 50,000 Euros a year) and is a long term advocate for Remain.
Investors in the UK are once again trading up the FTSE 100 and are backing the pound, which hit a new 2016 high this morning, as they bet heavily on a Remain win in today's EU referendum.
Unless there is private polling on which to base this optimism the gamble looks to be bold, to say the least. Last minute opinion polls are finely balanced and experts are giving both sides essentially a 50:50 chance. Kit Juckes at Societe Generale told the FT that the recent rally means risks from the poll are "asymmetric": the upside on a Remain win is now limited, but the downside on a Leave win is huge.
Given the fears in financial circles of a vote for Brexit, which could trigger a recession in the UK and Europe and hit global growth, some analysts are warning of "chaos" if Leave does emerge victorious. The FTSE is up 0.6 per cent to 6,295, but trading is a little choppy and it might gyrate through the day.
Depressed by latest opinion polls, but on the bright side it will produce a return to happy days on pb.com when we can pounce on every economic downturn, every unfortunate political turn in Europe etc and say "told you so". I come to pb.com for entertainment.
(iii) this Decision is legally binding, and may be amended or repealed only by common accord of the Heads of State or Government of the Member States of the European Union;
It sounds pretty unambiguous, but (as Parliament has noted) "It is not a Decision of the European Council as an EU institution, so it is not EU law. Nor is it an EU Treaty." This means "at least to the extent which the Decision interprets or ‘clarifies’ the EU Treaties – the Court of Justice is bound under EU law to ‘take it into consideration’... However, this does not necessarily mean that the Court of Justice will actually enforce the Decision, if it considered the Decision inapplicable to the case before it or contrary to the EU Treaties."
The likelihood of the European Union honouring a decision to which it was not party is pretty low, and indeed the President and the Vice President of the European Parliament are pretty clear on what they make of it: "Member state leaders have met within the framework of the European Council, but their agreement is in no way a document of the European Union, but a text of hybrid character, which is unspecified and not legally binding.
At the moment, the whole thing is nothing more than a deal that has been hammered out down the local bazaar. The European Union, however, is a community of law, in which there are regulated responsibilities. If the British are going to put all their eggs in one basket, in a promise made like this, which has not yet complied with our clean process of law, then, for me, this process of law is more important and preferable."
But if the ECJ, say, tries to strike down the deal, and we say: "oh ok then", then I will be alongside you marching on parliament,
Will you, though? And if you will, how many others won't? We've been told that leaving the EU means everything from economic Armageddon to World War Three. The government will simply shrug its shoulders and claim that the deal was never that important anyway, and the majority will go along with it.
Mori must have leaked. Leave price is sliding away beyond 6.
Seriously, after all this is over TSE and Mike should do a thread about the need to shield polling from prying eyes. It is insider trading writ large and it is not cricket.
The best system would be one whereby polls may be that polls have to be released the moment they are complete.
Ben Page is basically confirming the content on twitter with his retweets
Good morning all! Plan is to walk the dogs, then amble over to vote. We had one last defection from In to Out last night - my future father-in-law won over by Boris's closing speech & Inners's overall shouty, lecturing manner. Grand total for our family: 24:3, Out/In.
Based on the closing polls, looks like Remain will romp home. Disappointing .
It wasn't what I meant and you know fine well it wasn't/
It depends what you mean by "accept the result" I suppose. If Leave win I accept we will leave the EU in the next few years, but I will still argue for rejoining as soon as possible. I imagine Leavers will do the same in reverse.
In other words, neither side will accept the result. I agree.
I worry about the number of people who seem to have lost faith in the legitimacy of the entire process. It's easy to mock the "vote in pen" crowd, but they seem to be getting more numerous. It makes me sad that we've got to the stage where a significant minority of people actually believe that our electoral process will be rigged by the government. I don't think they'll accept the result if it doesn't go their way.
Representative democracy requires the main source of political cleavage to be class. Since that is no longer true in GB (it never was in NI, of course) we must expect it, as a political system, to collapse sooner rather than later. It will take this site with it (and many other things).
It wasn't what I meant and you know fine well it wasn't/
What, maybe 15% of the population is *actually* pro-EU. What do we think support for the Euro would be?!
Why would people vote Remain for any other reason than they are pro-EU? It may be marginal but surely they think on balance being in the EU is better than not being in it?
I don't think the second sentence is equivalent to someone necessarily being pro-EU.
I can believe people might vote Leave as a cry of protest and don't care too much about the EU one way or another. Although I suspect there are fewer of these than some believe: most people vote Leave because actually they don't like it. Would people vote Remain because David Cameron or other politicians told them to and they want to show support? Seems unlikely, except for a few in the SNP.
I've just done my patriotic duty. Quieter than at the council elections and at least on a par with the GE. Peak Old Git voting period.
I reckon Cameron will step down soon whatever happens. His strength was that people sort of trusted him, and he's squandered that strength by telling obvious porkies. And that trust, once lost, will never return.
As they say in my local rugby club - "You shag one sheep ...
You have it the wrong way around. The laws are determined by the EU bodies and the ECJ interprets those laws. The EU has just made another law, in effect.
All the ECJ can do is to refer to the law, in this case the one created by the Heads of State or Government, and say - oh yes, that's all in order.
Edit: because I am totally an expert on European Law, its formulation, and its interpretation.
Nope. Thereaties.
Yes I agree.
That language is pretty unambiguous, though:
(iii) this Decision is legally binding, and may be amended or repealed only by common accord of the Heads of State or Government of the Member States of the European Union;
so if it is amended, or reries blue murder.
I don't know what the outcome was of John Major's infamous letter (sites only ever print the letter, not the follow up). But if the ECJ, say, tries to strike down the deal, and we say: "oh ok then", then I will be alongside you marching on parliament.
Not really. As I have said on here before people misunderstand the role of the ECJ. It is not evil. It is not political. It was set up to make sure that all decisions of the EU are in accordance with the treaties and to enforce that on behalf of the citizens of the EU, not the member states.
All it will take is one individual making a petition to the ECJ about something in the agreement and they are bound by law to rule on it. Since none of the agreement is currently part of an EU treaty it is entirely possible they will rule against it.
By the way, I see Liverpool University are less than happy with Michael Dougan, your favourite EU law expert. Apparently they feel he has brought the university into disrepute by failing to make clear he holds the Jean Monnet Seat at the University (which gets them 50,000 Euros a year) and is a long term advocate for Remain.
I think he makes it clear in the video that he is (and has been) a Remainer. If you google him and find the Liverpool University first result, it says right there he is the Jean Monnet Chair although doesn't add ("comes with EUR50,000").
As with the IMF, NIESR, GotBoE, etc, I don't smell a rat in terms of the funding. I take their statements at face value, and I think it slightly demeaning to think otherwise. But then I would think that and equally, you might think they were in the pockets of the EU.
As to the ECJ. I agree again. They are the implementation mechanism of the EU treaties. Hence, as @rcs1000 has said, following a Remain vote, Dave should press for inclusion in the treaties asap.
But then again eighthly, these are special times, and ECJ notwithstanding, the language in EUCO 1/16 is pretty categoric.
Michael Crick C4 News says Leave Campaign think they have big lead in Postal Vote esp in Labour areas.
Who know's anymore...
Postal votes started to come in during peak Leave. Wouldn't be a surprise.
Indeed, who knows? But I think later polls should have locked in and factored in postal votes that had already been submitted. If you have already voted and are asked, "How are you voting?" would you say anything different from what you actually voted?
An idle moment thought. What if postal votes were 2:1 for LEAVE. But pollsters excluded those voters as they had already voted. Leaving the 80% of the yet to vote unbalanced with too many REMAIN, whch is then reflected in the last week or two of polling..... just for fun.
Will you, though? And if you will, how many others won't? We've been told that leaving the EU means everything from economic Armageddon to World War Three. The government will simply shrug its shoulders and claim that the deal was never that important anyway, and the majority will go along with it.
As the next Prime Minister is highly likely to be more Eurosceptic than David Cameron, I would hope - should the changes not be incorporated into Treaty as was promised - that we'll get another referendum.*
Indeed, I would suspect such a promise will be made by Theresa May, Boris Johnson, and any other candidates for Conservative Party leadership.
It's by no means in the bag. Vote for what you think is best!
We were running our very own Operation Croissant at breakfast this morning and enjoying a soft and delicious melon. I was having a Proustian Moment about the melons we used to have for starters at posh dinners: unripe, rock hard with a layer of powdered ginger on top. As your spoon hit the hard but slippery surface it would send up a cloud of ginger. You would then sneeze all over it. So I thought, Remain for Better Melons!
I remember a glass of orange juice being a pretty staple starter when I first started eating out in "posh" restaurants in Birmingham in the early 80s. Corn on the cob was another one. Of course, we always chose the prawn cocktail.
Michael Crick C4 News says Leave Campaign think they have big lead in Postal Vote esp in Labour areas.
Who know's anymore...
Postal votes started to come in during peak Leave. Wouldn't be a surprise.
Indeed, who knows? But I think later polls should have locked in and factored in postal votes that had already been submitted. If you have already voted and are asked, "How are you voting?" would you say anything different from what you actually voted?
An idle moment thought. What if postal votes were 2:1 for LEAVE. But pollsters excluded those voters as they had already voted. Leaving the 80% of the yet to vote unbalanced with too many REMAIN, whch is then reflected in the last week or two of polling..... just for fun.
but pollsters don't exclude postal voters. Assuming they find out (an online survey probably wouldn't ask, not sure about phone) then they just get put down as 10 for likelihood to vote.
The Guardian is reporting Sky will publish a YouGov at 10pm. Recontacting folk in it's final poll to ask how they actually voted. IIRC the approach worked OK in Indyref.
But was a disaster for GE2015
It intrinsically works better for a national referendum than a GE.
Not on vote share. You still have to get the weightings of the subgroups matched to their respective turnouts.
I'm hearing Survation are conducting a proper exit poll
I thought we were assured there weren't going to be any public exit polls. Nice surprise if true though.
How can it be an exit poll with no reference data?
Or is it an exit poll only in the sense it's asking how people actually voted?
How was the first general election exit poll conducted without reference data? Unless they'd collected the data at the previous general election in preparation for five years later.
It's by no means in the bag. Vote for what you think is best!
We were running our very own Operation Croissant at breakfast this morning and enjoying a soft and delicious melon. I was having a Proustian Moment about the melons we used to have for starters at posh dinners: unripe, rock hard with a layer of powdered ginger on top. As your spoon hit the hard but slippery surface it would send up a cloud of ginger. You would then sneeze all over it. So I thought, Remain for Better Melons!
I remember a glass of orange juice being a pretty staple starter when I first started eating out in "posh" restaurants in Birmingham in the early 80s. Corn on the cob was another one. Of course, we always chose the prawn cocktail.
Tinned tomato soup passed as restaurant fare in those day.
Thank the Lord for the Europeans, coming over here and stealing our restaurants.
Nick Watt claimed a major leaver told him last week they thought they had it in the bag. Then the events of last Thursday.
i do agree. If leave lose it's thomas mair who lost it for them.
I disagree. There's no way at all for us to know if that is why people are voting the way they are - it happened after a major swing to leave some swing back to Remain was perfectly possible.
And if it is a big remain win, it definitely wasn't the reason. But even a slight one, it's unprovable, so it's an excuse if leavers blame it.
Will you, though? And if you will, how many others won't? We've been told that leaving the EU means everything from economic Armageddon to World War Three. The government will simply shrug its shoulders and claim that the deal was never that important anyway, and the majority will go along with it.
As the next Prime Minister is highly likely to be more Eurosceptic than David Cameron, I would hope - should the changes not be incorporated into Treaty as was promised - that we'll get another referendum.*
Indeed, I would suspect such a promise will be made by Theresa May, Boris Johnson, and any other candidates for Conservative Party leadership.
Nick Watt claimed a major leaver told him last week they thought they had it in the bag. Then the events of last Thursday.
i do agree. If leave lose it's thomas mair who lost it for them.
I disagree. There's no way at all for us to know if that is why people are voting the way they are - it happened after a major swing to leave some swing back to Remain was perfectly possible.
And if it is a big remain win, it definitely wasn't the reason. But even a slight one, it's unprovable, so it's an excuse if leavers blame it.
If Leave lose, then some people will blame Thomas Mair. I don't think it stands up.
If people's allegiance to a cause can be swayed by what is essentially a tragic non sequitur then it's the Leave campaign's fault for not making its case compelling enough.
It sounds pretty unambiguous, but (as Parliament has noted) "It is not a Decision of the European Council as an EU institution, so it is not EU law. Nor is it an EU Treaty." This means "at least to the extent which the Decision interprets or ‘clarifies’ the EU Treaties – the Court of Justice is bound under EU law to ‘take it into consideration’... However, this does not necessarily mean that the Court of Justice will actually enforce the Decision, if it considered the Decision inapplicable to the case before it or contrary to the EU Treaties."
The likelihood of the European Union honouring a decision to which it was not party is pretty low, and indeed the President and the Vice President of the European Parliament are pretty clear on what they make of it: "Member state leaders have met within the framework of the European Council, but their agreement is in no way a document of the European Union, but a text of hybrid character, which is unspecified and not legally binding.
At the moment, the whole thing is nothing more than a deal that has been hammered out down the local bazaar. The European Union, however, is a community of law, in which there are regulated responsibilities. If the British are going to put all their eggs in one basket, in a promise made like this, which has not yet complied with our clean process of law, then, for me, this process of law is more important and preferable."
But if the ECJ, say, tries to strike down the deal, and we say: "oh ok then", then I will be alongside you marching on parliament,
Will you, though? And if you will, how many others won't? We've been told that leaving the EU means everything from economic Armageddon to World War Three. The government will simply shrug its shoulders and claim that the deal was never that important anyway, and the majority will go along with it.
Thanks for the response.
Yes I can see that the whole uncertainty of how binding the deal is or not (and I have mentioned that EUCO 1/16 is pretty categorical), is symptomatic of the problem with the EU.
For me (and IA totally NAL) it is categorical enough for me to be happy. As per the Major letter, we never got a chance to see what would have happened if a UK government maintained its protest. Which of course brings me onto your last point. If not enough people want to join me in my tent on parliament square, then that's democracy for you.
It's by no means in the bag. Vote for what you think is best!
We were running our very own Operation Croissant at breakfast this morning and enjoying a soft and delicious melon. I was having a Proustian Moment about the melons we used to have for starters at posh dinners: unripe, rock hard with a layer of powdered ginger on top. As your spoon hit the hard but slippery surface it would send up a cloud of ginger. You would then sneeze all over it. So I thought, Remain for Better Melons!
I remember a glass of orange juice being a pretty staple starter when I first started eating out in "posh" restaurants in Birmingham in the early 80s. Corn on the cob was another one. Of course, we always chose the prawn cocktail.
Tinned tomato soup passed as restaurant fare in those day.
Thank the Lord for the Europeans, coming over here and stealing our restaurants.
It's by no means in the bag. Vote for what you think is best!
We were running our very own Operation Croissant at breakfast this morning and enjoying a soft and delicious melon. I was having a Proustian Moment about the melons we used to have for starters at posh dinners: unripe, rock hard with a layer of powdered ginger on top. As your spoon hit the hard but slippery surface it would send up a cloud of ginger. You would then sneeze all over it. So I thought, Remain for Better Melons!
I remember a glass of orange juice being a pretty staple starter when I first started eating out in "posh" restaurants in Birmingham in the early 80s. Corn on the cob was another one. Of course, we always chose the prawn cocktail.
Tinned tomato soup passed as restaurant fare in those day.
Thank the Lord for the Europeans, coming over here and stealing our restaurants.
I remember being taken to lunch in the UCL restaurant in the early 1990s. Duck a l'orange was the only thing on the menu. Presumably that was one of the last outposts of post-War British cuisine.
As soon as Farage didn't turn up for Channel 4 last night I knew Leave had lost, if he thought he was winning he would never turn down an opportunity to be on the TV.
Mori must have leaked. Leave price is sliding away beyond 6.
Seriously, after all this is over TSE and Mike should do a thread about the need to shield polling from prying eyes. It is insider trading writ large and it is not cricket.
The best system would be one whereby polls may be that polls have to be released the moment they are complete.
Ben Page is basically confirming the content on twitter with his retweets
How is this poll any different from the others we have had over the past week?
The financial and currency markets have been rising steadily since 8 am, although they are now pausing for a breather.
I believe the polling - but as much from hope as confidence, having just voted Remain. But all the reasons why earlier polls might be wrong, which have been set out in detail on this site, could apply just as much to the latest MORI....
As soon as Farage didn't turn up for Channel 4 last night I knew Leave had lost, if he thought he was winning he would never turn down an opportunity to be on the TV.
Alternatively, why risk it? A good move given the reviews I saw of the debate!
I do wish people would stop talking rot about English cuisine. I have several excellent eighteenth century cook books that I could sell you demonstrating that there was good food long before the EU.
Nick Watt claimed a major leaver told him last week they thought they had it in the bag. Then the events of last Thursday.
i do agree. If leave lose it's thomas mair who lost it for them.
Possibly, but only because the killing sobered up the campaigns so people concentrated more on the issues than the rhetoric. Polls which asked supplementary questions such as "Would Leave be good or bad for the economy/pensions etc" showed an increasing number of people who believed leaving the EU would have bad consequences.
It's by no means in the bag. Vote for what you think is best!
We were running our very own Operation Croissant at breakfast this morning and enjoying a soft and delicious melon. I was having a Proustian Moment about the melons we used to have for starters at posh dinners: unripe, rock hard with a layer of powdered ginger on top. As your spoon hit the hard but slippery surface it would send up a cloud of ginger. You would then sneeze all over it. So I thought, Remain for Better Melons!
I remember a glass of orange juice being a pretty staple starter when I first started eating out in "posh" restaurants in Birmingham in the early 80s. Corn on the cob was another one. Of course, we always chose the prawn cocktail.
Tinned tomato soup passed as restaurant fare in those day.
Thank the Lord for the Europeans, coming over here and stealing our restaurants.
I remember being taken to lunch in the UCL restaurant in the early 1990s. Duck a l'orange was the only thing on the menu. Presumably that was one of the last outposts of post-War British cuisine.
I remember visiting ICI Runcorn in the days when they had three staff eateries (workers/management/execs).
The management were always pleased to see me as that entitled them to dine in the executive 'canteen' (as they called it, presumably to show solidarity with the workers ).
We didn't eat out often in the 70s, but when we did it was always Chinese. The food always had a certain Dayglo quality. British food started improving once Maggie came in .
As soon as Farage didn't turn up for Channel 4 last night I knew Leave had lost, if he thought he was winning he would never turn down an opportunity to be on the TV.
As soon as Farage didn't turn up for Channel 4 last night I knew Leave had lost, if he thought he was winning he would never turn down an opportunity to be on the TV.
so Cameron turns up in downing street and its a sign he has lost it Farage declines to turn up for a debate and its a sign he lost it
As soon as Farage didn't turn up for Channel 4 last night I knew Leave had lost, if he thought he was winning he would never turn down an opportunity to be on the TV.
Either that or he thought it is in the bag so not worth risking the negative headlines that could be generated if it went badly.
I suspect though that if he thought things were looking bad he would think Ive nothing to lose and wade in with both feet.
Just voted in Chiswick, W London. Queue longer than I've ever seen there before (there's usually none at all).
Lots of Union Jacks festooned around the entrance. Debatable if that shows bias to any side (Leave by a hair, perhaps). Either way, bloody stupid to allow it at all.
This final poll has got to be a real stonker for remain.
If it is then it's a rogue?
I threw in the towel on Tuesday (I'm a Beleaver). I'd be astonished if Leave win at this point. Too many voters will be frit when they get in the booth.
Ladbrokes Politics @LadPolitics 55s55 seconds ago Ladbrokes:
55% of bets placed so far today are for LEAVE.
Must mean that some serious money going on Remain the over way then,
Tyson's repeatedly made the point that the betting market generally knows what's what. The only caveat that I can think of is that there are a lot of wealthy people voting with heart, not head this time.
Very odd this MORI poll coming out today>if you are a Londoner who hasn't voted and you see a big Remain lead ( as we presume) reading your paper on the way home surely it makes you less likely to vote whichever side you support?
Nick Watt claimed a major leaver told him last week they thought they had it in the bag. Then the events of last Thursday.
i do agree. If leave lose it's thomas mair who lost it for them.
Apparently votes were coming back to Remain before the dreadful events of last week.
Remainers will try to re-write history by saying that from now on. It's the only way to wash the blood off their victorious hands.
Oh come on; the idea that the murder changed more than 1 in 100 people's votes is absurd.
We see on this site how people think. Look at SeanT. He hates the EU. But he owns an expensive flat in central London with a large mortgage. It's only because Remain is ahead in the polls that he feels able to vote for Leave.
There are 100x more SeanT's (in attitude towards the EU) than there are people who were swayed by the murder of Jo Cox.
Comments
I always said I had no idea, other than what was suggested by the polls, which could change.
I still have no idea.
talk about neck and neck
I'm actually amazed how much the markets move 5-10 mins after polls published!
Yesterday alone saw a 6pt lead for Remain alongside a 7pt lead for Leave.
They were a mile off at the GE
Thank the Lord for the Europeans and the way they saved our country from gastronomic purgatory.
All it will take is one individual making a petition to the ECJ about something in the agreement and they are bound by law to rule on it. Since none of the agreement is currently part of an EU treaty it is entirely possible they will rule against it.
By the way, I see Liverpool University are less than happy with Michael Dougan, your favourite EU law expert. Apparently they feel he has brought the university into disrepute by failing to make clear he holds the Jean Monnet Seat at the University (which gets them 50,000 Euros a year) and is a long term advocate for Remain.
Could get longer before it gets shorter.
They had the best results/graphics at the GE
Unless there is private polling on which to base this optimism the gamble looks to be bold, to say the least. Last minute opinion polls are finely balanced and experts are giving both sides essentially a 50:50 chance. Kit Juckes at Societe Generale told the FT that the recent rally means risks from the poll are "asymmetric": the upside on a Remain win is now limited, but the downside on a Leave win is huge.
Given the fears in financial circles of a vote for Brexit, which could trigger a recession in the UK and Europe and hit global growth, some analysts are warning of "chaos" if Leave does emerge victorious. The FTSE is up 0.6 per cent to 6,295, but trading is a little choppy and it might gyrate through the day.
http://www.hl.co.uk/news/2016/6/23/markets-ftse-gains-point-to-asymmetric-risk-on-brexit-poll-outcome
I think that is right. The markets (both financial and betting) are over-confident that Remain are going to win this.
ok here you go
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum
terrible flooding here in southern england. If more affluent counties lean remain may this help leave a bit? :-/
The likelihood of the European Union honouring a decision to which it was not party is pretty low, and indeed the President and the Vice President of the European Parliament are pretty clear on what they make of it:
"Member state leaders have met within the framework of the European Council, but their agreement is in no way a document of the European Union, but a text of hybrid character, which is unspecified and not legally binding.
At the moment, the whole thing is nothing more than a deal that has been hammered out down the local bazaar. The European Union, however, is a community of law, in which there are regulated responsibilities. If the British are going to put all their eggs in one basket, in a promise made like this, which has not yet complied with our clean process of law, then, for me, this process of law is more important and preferable." Will you, though? And if you will, how many others won't? We've been told that leaving the EU means everything from economic Armageddon to World War Three. The government will simply shrug its shoulders and claim that the deal was never that important anyway, and the majority will go along with it.
Based on the closing polls, looks like Remain will romp home. Disappointing
http://www.hl.co.uk/news/2016/6/23/brexit-or-no-europes-realists-to-contain-utopians
The UK always views this whole question at 'the UK versus the EU'. That's completely wrong, there is no monolithic 'EU view'.
I didn't realise that Yougov's 2 pt lead was after squeeze questions. Level pegging beforehand.
(8-10% on the currency, 3-7% on the index)
I reckon Cameron will step down soon whatever happens. His strength was that people sort of trusted him, and he's squandered that strength by telling obvious porkies. And that trust, once lost, will never return.
As they say in my local rugby club - "You shag one sheep ...
As with the IMF, NIESR, GotBoE, etc, I don't smell a rat in terms of the funding. I take their statements at face value, and I think it slightly demeaning to think otherwise. But then I would think that and equally, you might think they were in the pockets of the EU.
As to the ECJ. I agree again. They are the implementation mechanism of the EU treaties. Hence, as @rcs1000 has said, following a Remain vote, Dave should press for inclusion in the treaties asap.
But then again eighthly, these are special times, and ECJ notwithstanding, the language in EUCO 1/16 is pretty categoric.
What if postal votes were 2:1 for LEAVE. But pollsters excluded those voters as they had already voted. Leaving the 80% of the yet to vote unbalanced with too many REMAIN, whch is then reflected in the last week or two of polling..... just for fun.
Indeed, I would suspect such a promise will be made by Theresa May, Boris Johnson, and any other candidates for Conservative Party leadership.
* See my comment about Turkey below.
http://order-order.com/2016/06/23/stronger-welcome-anjem-choudary-support/
A momentous day. Hoping I won't have to queue to vote though.
Not sure why Leave is close to 6.
Or is it an exit poll only in the sense it's asking how people actually voted?
I'm such a democrat, I'm driving a leaver to the polling station.
Topping et al haven't suddenly morphed into Jihadis because some loathsome fuckwit is on their side.
Thank the Lord for the Europeans, coming over here and stealing our restaurants.
And if it is a big remain win, it definitely wasn't the reason. But even a slight one, it's unprovable, so it's an excuse if leavers blame it.
Did anyone see the results or have a reference?
Apparently votes were coming back to Remain before the dreadful events of last week.
As I said, I'd rather lose this referendum on an 80% turnout than win it on a 40% turnout.
If people's allegiance to a cause can be swayed by what is essentially a tragic non sequitur then it's the Leave campaign's fault for not making its case compelling enough.
Yes I can see that the whole uncertainty of how binding the deal is or not (and I have mentioned that EUCO 1/16 is pretty categorical), is symptomatic of the problem with the EU.
For me (and IA totally NAL) it is categorical enough for me to be happy. As per the Major letter, we never got a chance to see what would have happened if a UK government maintained its protest. Which of course brings me onto your last point. If not enough people want to join me in my tent on parliament square, then that's democracy for you.
http://tinyurl.com/zusy6b5
I wonder if he'll be commenting on the plat du jour?
The financial and currency markets have been rising steadily since 8 am, although they are now pausing for a breather.
I believe the polling - but as much from hope as confidence, having just voted Remain. But all the reasons why earlier polls might be wrong, which have been set out in detail on this site, could apply just as much to the latest MORI....
One was Lord Bute's copy!
The management were always pleased to see me as that entitled them to dine in the executive 'canteen' (as they called it, presumably to show solidarity with the workers
We didn't eat out often in the 70s, but when we did it was always Chinese. The food always had a certain Dayglo quality. British food started improving once Maggie came in
Farage declines to turn up for a debate and its a sign he lost it
much straw clutching in the air :-)
I suspect though that if he thought things were looking bad he would think Ive nothing to lose and wade in with both feet.
It's the only way to wash the blood off their victorious hands.
Lots of Union Jacks festooned around the entrance. Debatable if that shows bias to any side (Leave by a hair, perhaps). Either way, bloody stupid to allow it at all.
Ladbrokes:
55% of bets placed so far today are for LEAVE.
22nd: 50.07
21 - 22 41.66
20 - 22 40.75
19 - 22 34.86
18 - 22 28.02
17 - 22 28.29
16 - 22 28.36
15 - 22 38.4
14 - 21 49.3
13 - 20 70.14
12 - 19 76.42
11 - 18 80.84
10 - 17 80.84
9 - 16 87.27
8 - 15 85.59
Highlighted ones probably the best guide.
We see on this site how people think. Look at SeanT. He hates the EU. But he owns an expensive flat in central London with a large mortgage. It's only because Remain is ahead in the polls that he feels able to vote for Leave.
There are 100x more SeanT's (in attitude towards the EU) than there are people who were swayed by the murder of Jo Cox.