Suppose Mr Cameron stands outside No 10 and says (following a narrow Leave win)( as he is fully entitled to do).
"The results of the referendum are inconclusive. I therefore feel that as it is in the best interests of the Country, I will not be invoking article 50."
More realistically he will go back to the EU, negotiate some more meaningless concessions and have another referendum.
Order in council? Doesn't that need a meeting of PC?
Dave signs something.
A bit like the signing of The Treaty of Lisbon, our PM just signs it.
In practice, yes. I can't see an ambassador, the monarch or the cabinet objecting when even 50% plus 1 vote in the referendum would give Cameron a clear popular mandate for invoking it.
Just voted. Was surprised the ballots are done on white, photocopier paper, black ink. The ballot papers for our work bake-off are more secure than that.
Your bake-off ballot papers are all individually serial-numbered on the back, perforated by a pattern of dots kept secret until the day, and counted out and back to balance the count with the number issued? And you keep a complete record of which numbered paper went to which voter? Impressive stuff indeed....
Our antiquated polling system works very well indeed. It would be very hard - some might say impossible - to game it to a large degree.
Widespread modern postal voting is less so, although I doubt PV fraud is as widespread as some think.
In comparison, electronic voting is untrustworthy with current technology. And that goes for both EV-at-polling-station as well as EV-from-home systems.
Mr. Evershed, an alternative is that Cameron invokes Article 50, negotiates a ****ing awful 'deal' and then has a referendum on that, or staying in after all.
Actually that's a rather important point in terms of what might happen in any reshuffle (assuming a Remain result). It would give a good excuse for Boris to be out of government, voluntarily or not. It could also lead to further problems for Cameron with a group of Leaver/anti-Heathrow malcontents gathered around Boris.
I ended at the polling station this morning where I began in February - bitterly torn, heart saying one thing, the head saying another, and irritated and annoyed that we're having a vote at this time on this question, and feeling let down by the Prime Minister, who ultimately is responsible for this, his hopeless renegotiation and for the fallout that follows whatever the outcome.
I voted Remain, I know many on here will be dismayed by that, in truth I am a little myself, but the "head" won out. Cool hard economic reasoning (and a degree of self-interest) over emotion. I did at least hover over the boxes rather than my usual confident crossing of a box without a moment's hesitation. I even felt a bit choked.
I just want this all to be over, and let's get on with our lives again...!
Hear hear.
NEVER AGAIN.
This is bollocks. All this bleating, mewling crap about the referendum being awful, divisive, nasty, blah blah. This is democracy, it is rough and ready. This vote is especially rough because we, as a nation, are deciding our future. But WE are deciding. The people. As it should be.
The alternative: of smooth, technocratic consensus, where even the most fundamental decisions are taken by an elite, is what they have in North Korea.
I think this question, and other big constitutional questions, need to be decided by referendum. I very much want us to remain a representative democracy though, not one where bullshit "propositions" are subject to plebiscites every ten minutes.
Just voted. Was surprised the ballots are done on white, photocopier paper, black ink. The ballot papers for our work bake-off are more secure than that.
Your bake-off ballot papers are all individually serial-numbered on the back, perforated by a pattern of dots kept secret until the day, and counted out and back to balance the count with the number issued? And you keep a complete record of which numbered paper went to which voter? Impressive stuff indeed....
Our antiquated polling system works very well indeed. It would be very hard - some might say impossible - to game it to a large degree.
Widespread modern postal voting is less so, although I doubt PV fraud is as widespread as some think.
In comparison, electronic voting is untrustworthy with current technology. And that goes for both EV-at-polling-station as well as EV-from-home systems.
Welcome back JJ. Really good to see you on here. Hope the health is still improving.
Thanks. Sadly not. Have emerged from my hovel for the fun 'n games today and tonight, after which I might re-lurk.
Good to see you back JJ, I wondered about you yesterday. How is the sprog?
He's in fine fettle thanks - he's two next week. I've been getting lots of help from my family and in-laws, so he's very spoilt with attention.
It's fascinating seeing to watch his character developing. He seems both similar to his parents (e.g. he is an explorer and never sits still), yet also undoubtedly an individual.
The big fight today is between those who want to leave the EU - and those who want to leave the EU but are too scared of the consequences.
The number of people who want to stay in the EU because it is wonderful are tiny.
I would estimate about 20-25% positively want to stay, particularly at the younger end of the spectrum. I would also say that most people don't have a scooby doo about the EU. The ignorance and misinformation is appalling when you hear Joe Public being interviewed. It has become the convenient scapegoat to blame for all their problems. That's why Leave is doing so well, they can project everyone's concerns on the EU and promise them everything will be better if we just leave.
Of course if we do leave within a year everyone will be blaming all their woes on Brexit.
I am sanguine about the result, fortunate enough not to be affected either way but I am expecting the buyer's remorse to swift and harsh if we leave, particularly once we opt for a solution that maintains freedom of movement as I am certain we will.
I'm also expecting buyer's remorse to be swift and harsh if we vote to Remain! The EU has been walking on egg-shells, saying nothing that could rock the boat for a couple of months. There's going to be pent-up stuff coming out that will get more than a few people spitting nails...
I'm sure.
And then, Dave produces his piece of paper saying: No Ever Closer Union.
And PUUFFFFFFFFFT! All that pent-up stuff will be repelled.
Ah! The old "Holding up a piece of paper with a solemn promise on it" tactic.
Remind me again how well that worked out for Neville Chamberlain.
Actually it worked out very well for both Chamberlain and the country. It did not stop WW2 of course, but it bought enough time for the UK to rearm and especially for Fighter Command to get in place Radar (as it became known) and to build enough modern fighters to enable the Battle of Britain to be won.
Chamberlain, by then very ill with terminal cancer, was forced to step down after the Norway fiasco but nonetheless played a very important part in keeping Churchill in power against the machinations of the surrender monkey, Lord Halifax.
Chamberlain has been the victim of shocking bad press, much of which is undeserved.
Indeed. And of course he was very popular with most Tories at the time - indeed one Winston Churchill faced a vote of censure from his own constituency party, which he only defeated by a single vote, for his outspoken opposition to Chamberlain's foreign policy
Just voted. Was surprised the ballots are done on white, photocopier paper, black ink. The ballot papers for our work bake-off are more secure than that.
Your bake-off ballot papers are all individually serial-numbered on the back, perforated by a pattern of dots kept secret until the day, and counted out and back to balance the count with the number issued? And you keep a complete record of which numbered paper went to which voter? Impressive stuff indeed....
Our antiquated polling system works very well indeed. It would be very hard - some might say impossible - to game it to a large degree.
Widespread modern postal voting is less so, although I doubt PV fraud is as widespread as some think.
In comparison, electronic voting is untrustworthy with current technology. And that goes for both EV-at-polling-station as well as EV-from-home systems.
My problem with electronic voting is not the security - after all we use electronic banking. It is the ease of electronic voting that worries me.
It debases the vote to clicking on "like" or vote up, vote down. It trivialises it. I like the drama and seriousness of going to the polling station and marking your cross with a pencil. It is serious stuff - not to be dumbed down.
Been telling for 90 minutes now at a polling station in Hart. Steady flow of voters. 2-3 every 2-3 minutes.
About seven or eight very enthusiastic Leavers keen to tell me they're Leave, giving encouragement and thumbs up.
Remain lady next to us hasn't got any of that but about half of people are just staring at their feet, or ignoring both sides, and walking straight into the polling station.
Are you actually telling - i.e. collecting polling numbers? Impressive GOTV operation if so.
No, neither Remain nor Leave are. There are two Leavers and one Remainer.
We are just smiling and showing a presence, and keeping a broad tally of turnout rate.
@Mortimer There's a base percentage of people in polls who think that X should resign no matter what the reason. In that context, only 40% wanting the Prime Minister to resign if Leave win is surprisingly low.
I can't see him hanging around too long in the event of a Leave win, mind.
'Spose.
TBH if Leave win, I wouldn't necessarily want him to resign straight away. Announce his intention to, sure, but not actually go to the palace.
I've urged Dave to do this in the event of a Leave victory.
Leaving aside whether this would be the right thing to do, how is article 50 invoked?
Order in council? Doesn't that need a meeting of PC?
It's invoked by sending a Spitfire painted in the Unition Jack, and piloted by a cigar-smoking bulldog, to circle Brussels. Said aircraft is fitted with colossal speakers belting out Rule Britannia and some Vera Lynn classics. Leaflets on how to make a proper roast dinner, with spotted dick and custard for afters are dropped every 30 minutes.
Actually that's a rather important point in terms of what might happen in any reshuffle (assuming a Remain result). It would give a good excuse for Boris to be out of government, voluntarily or not. It could also lead to further problems for Cameron with a group of Leaver/anti-Heathrow malcontents gathered around Boris.
Just voted. Was surprised the ballots are done on white, photocopier paper, black ink. The ballot papers for our work bake-off are more secure than that.
Your bake-off ballot papers are all individually serial-numbered on the back, perforated by a pattern of dots kept secret until the day, and counted out and back to balance the count with the number issued? And you keep a complete record of which numbered paper went to which voter? Impressive stuff indeed....
Our antiquated polling system works very well indeed. It would be very hard - some might say impossible - to game it to a large degree.
Widespread modern postal voting is less so, although I doubt PV fraud is as widespread as some think.
In comparison, electronic voting is untrustworthy with current technology. And that goes for both EV-at-polling-station as well as EV-from-home systems.
Welcome back JJ. Really good to see you on here. Hope the health is still improving.
Thanks. Sadly not. Have emerged from my hovel for the fun 'n games today and tonight, after which I might re-lurk.
Wotcha, Mr. Jessup, great that you can join us for this day at least. Your contributions to the Site have been sadly missed. Get well soon, old boy and best wishes to the nipper and your good lady.
Actually that's a rather important point in terms of what might happen in any reshuffle (assuming a Remain result). It would give a good excuse for Boris to be out of government, voluntarily or not. It could also lead to further problems for Cameron with a group of Leaver/anti-Heathrow malcontents gathered around Boris.
I think Nicola supports Heathrow expansion.
The SNP is neutral over the third runway - "whatever is best for Scotland".
Presumably Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem and Green are using their party systems for the REMAIN Get Out The Vote process.
But only UKIP using their party system for the LEAVE GOTV process.
Disadvantage LEAVE.
The Tory Party is officially neutral - I don't think they can use central data at all. Not sure about a local party email list etc
They are (edit/ reply to original post) - but I would be surprised if this data was being shared between the parties, or with any central campaign, for reasonably obvious reasons. Each party will concentrate on its own known supporters, or in some areas I believe informal agreements have been made on who leads the campaign in each ward.
Presumably Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem and Green are using their party systems for the REMAIN Get Out The Vote process.
But only UKIP using their party system for the LEAVE GOTV process.
Disadvantage LEAVE.
The Tory Party is officially neutral - I don't think they can use central data at all. Not sure about a local party email list etc
They are - but I would be surprised if this data was being shared between the parties, or with any central campaign, for reasonably obvious reasons. Each party will concentrate on its own known supporters, or in some areas I believe informal agreements have been made on who leads the campaign in each ward.
A friend who campaigns for Remain says they haven't got access to the usual Tory data. (I believe Labour are sharing theirs though)
Just voted. Was surprised the ballots are done on white, photocopier paper, black ink. The ballot papers for our work bake-off are more secure than that.
Your bake-off ballot papers are all individually serial-numbered on the back, perforated by a pattern of dots kept secret until the day, and counted out and back to balance the count with the number issued? And you keep a complete record of which numbered paper went to which voter? Impressive stuff indeed....
Our antiquated polling system works very well indeed. It would be very hard - some might say impossible - to game it to a large degree.
Widespread modern postal voting is less so, although I doubt PV fraud is as widespread as some think.
In comparison, electronic voting is untrustworthy with current technology. And that goes for both EV-at-polling-station as well as EV-from-home systems.
My problem with electronic voting is not the security - after all we use electronic banking. It is the ease of electronic voting that worries me.
It debases the vote to clicking on "like" or vote up, vote down. It trivialises it. I like the drama and seriousness of going to the polling station and marking your cross with a pencil. It is serious stuff - not to be dumbed down.
You make a good point. But do think that electronic banking is a red herring - and it is not as if ebanking is exactly secure as it is.
The main problems with evoting IMO are: 1) It introduces opportunities to commit massive, widescale fraud that cannot be easily committed with our current system. 2) Detecting fraudulent voting is much, much harder. 3) It reduces confidence in the system (a similar argument can be made for increasing PV participation).
I voted unselfishly today. Remain is better for me, wealthy and City based. Leave will lead to market chaos in the short term (thank GO for egging this on instead of pouring cold water) and political strife. My own livelihood will be affected.
But Remain is a betrayal of the UK in the long-term. We are not in the Euro, but its failure pours out victims to our shore and loony Merkel welcomes the diaspora of the Middle East too.
Wages for the poor are held down and our economic productivity has fallen as low wages mean companies investment as they can make profits with 0% interest rates and falling wages bills.
Meanwhile, house prices rise and pressure on services grows, all for people who can't afford an alternative.
Hoping my 5-1 leave bet comes off, but we'll see soon!
Suppose Mr Cameron stands outside No 10 and says (following a narrow Leave win)( as he is fully entitled to do).
"The results of the referendum are inconclusive. I therefore feel that as it is in the best interests of the Country, I will not be invoking article 50."
One scenario would be an immediate confidence vote in the Commons - not in the government, but in Cameron. Labour abstains and Cameron loses.
The alternative: of smooth, technocratic consensus, where even the most fundamental decisions are taken by an elite, is what they have in North Korea.
To be fair, the smooth technocratic consensus is periodically shaken up by gruesome public executions of randomly-selected technocrats.
Indeed. It's called representative democracy and it's a terrible system but it's better than anything else anyone has ever come up with. Especially referendums, which are bloody awful.
Just voted. Was surprised the ballots are done on white, photocopier paper, black ink. The ballot papers for our work bake-off are more secure than that.
Your bake-off ballot papers are all individually serial-numbered on the back, perforated by a pattern of dots kept secret until the day, and counted out and back to balance the count with the number issued? And you keep a complete record of which numbered paper went to which voter? Impressive stuff indeed....
Our antiquated polling system works very well indeed. It would be very hard - some might say impossible - to game it to a large degree.
Widespread modern postal voting is less so, although I doubt PV fraud is as widespread as some think.
In comparison, electronic voting is untrustworthy with current technology. And that goes for both EV-at-polling-station as well as EV-from-home systems.
Welcome back JJ. Really good to see you on here. Hope the health is still improving.
Thanks. Sadly not. Have emerged from my hovel for the fun 'n games today and tonight, after which I might re-lurk.
Wotcha, Mr. Jessup, great that you can join us for this day at least. Your contributions to the Site have been sadly missed. Get well soon, old boy and best wishes to the nipper and your good lady.
Cheers. Hope you are in good health as well.
(And to everyone else, leaver or remainer, Labour or Conservative. But no-one else. )
In other betfair news, the implied expected turnout from that market is 71-72%, which would be the biggest UK poll since at least the 1997 GE (which was 71.3%).
@PopulusPolls: Populus Final Pre-Ref Poll (4700, Online) 55% REMAIN: 45% LEAVE. Fieldwork 21-06-16 to midnight 22-06-16. https://t.co/QuYl5dSwle
A landslide for REMAIN on the cards at this rate?
Campaign to get us into the Euro starts tomorrow...
Even 55%-45% would be the same as Scotland, needs 60%+ Remain for the Euro to be even considered
REMAIN leads have been getting incrementally bigger as the polls have appeared... Could well finish at 60/40 or better for REMAIN.
Euro is back on the agenda after today for sure.
No, final yougov 51/49 Remain, final Mori 52/48 even final Comres 54/46, final Survation Remain 1% ahead and TNS and Opinium had Leave narrowly ahead. With higher older voter turnout, even with ABC1s for Remain I expect it to be around 52/48, not one poll is anywhere near 60%+ Remain
@PopulusPolls: Populus Final Pre-Ref Poll (4700, Online) 55% REMAIN: 45% LEAVE. Fieldwork 21-06-16 to midnight 22-06-16. https://t.co/QuYl5dSwle
A landslide for REMAIN on the cards at this rate?
Campaign to get us into the Euro starts tomorrow...
Even 55%-45% would be the same as Scotland, needs 60%+ Remain for the Euro to be even considered
Is the Euro even a realistic prospect?
I wish it were. Britain should have joined the euro years ago. But you might as well ask whether tearing up the opt-out from "ever closer union" is a realistic prospect.
My twitter timeline and facebook feed running at 99% Remain, so based on indyref weightings - expect Leave to win.
Perhaps I'm clutching at straws, but all this Remain excitement does seem a bit bubble-ish.
My bubble is pretty much all middle class types. My right wing Tory mate has finally plumped for out but that's it. However, parents of these people are strongly pro Leave. Lovely sunny day in Scotland, polling station was quiet at 7am, turnout might not be above GE levels in Scotland.
We need a 'good' margin I think as otherwise all the 'rigging' and cheating complaints will just become mega-nat..
Damian Thompson @holysmoke · 14s15 seconds ago These men have played every dirty trick in the book to keep us in the corrupt, collapsing EU. They can get stuffed.
@PopulusPolls: Populus Final Pre-Ref Poll (4700, Online) 55% REMAIN: 45% LEAVE. Fieldwork 21-06-16 to midnight 22-06-16. https://t.co/QuYl5dSwle
A landslide for REMAIN on the cards at this rate?
Campaign to get us into the Euro starts tomorrow...
Much as I mistrust the europhile traitors who govern us, there really WON'T be a campaign to join the euro tomorrow, and probably not in our lifetimes, either.
For a start such a thing means a Referendum. I think people using the R word in government in the next five-ten years will be sent to manage penguins in West Falklands.
Well you've got 45% (Leavers) + a healthy chunk of the Remainers would vote against the Euro. It would sink 80:20 in any referendum.
@PopulusPolls: Populus Final Pre-Ref Poll (4700, Online) 55% REMAIN: 45% LEAVE. Fieldwork 21-06-16 to midnight 22-06-16. https://t.co/QuYl5dSwle
A landslide for REMAIN on the cards at this rate?
Campaign to get us into the Euro starts tomorrow...
Much as I mistrust the europhile traitors who govern us, there really WON'T be a campaign to join the euro tomorrow, and probably not in our lifetimes, either.
For a start such a thing means a Referendum. I think people using the R word in government in the next five-ten years will be sent to manage penguins in West Falklands.
They don't have to do it with a referendum... And I suspect when we eventually do join the Euro it will be via a general election manifesto commitment.
Populus is extraordinary. Have northern Labour brexiters everyone was panicking about 10 days ago decamped en masse to Remain after the Cox murder? Or more likely is it just the last minute swingback everyone predicted?
Found it very difficult to get response from VoteLeave website.
I got response from the website after a couple of weeks - they phoned me up and gave me the contact details of our local organiser - Claire Pearsall, Conservative Councillor for Sevenoaks, I'm looking at you! Who said "Thanks a lot - I'll be in touch soon". Never got back to me again, despite being prompted several times.
Quite hacked off, to be honest and feeling quite guilty. Wishing I had done a Casino_Royale and just done something independently.
@PopulusPolls: Populus Final Pre-Ref Poll (4700, Online) 55% REMAIN: 45% LEAVE. Fieldwork 21-06-16 to midnight 22-06-16. https://t.co/QuYl5dSwle
A landslide for REMAIN on the cards at this rate?
Campaign to get us into the Euro starts tomorrow...
Much as I mistrust the europhile traitors who govern us, there really WON'T be a campaign to join the euro tomorrow, and probably not in our lifetimes, either.
For a start such a thing means a Referendum. I think people using the R word in government in the next five-ten years will be sent to manage penguins in West Falklands.
They don't have to do it with a referendum... And I suspect when we eventually do join the Euro it will be via a general election manifesto commitment.
Yes, welcome back JJ. It's been great to see some of our old friends/adversaries reappearing, such as the excellent Yellow Submarine, AndyJS and others. Let's hope JackW too is well enough to pop in and tell us how it's all going to turn out.
Populus is extraordinary. Have northern Labour brexiters everyone was panicking about decamped en masse to Remain after the Cox murder? Or more likely is it just the last minute swingback everyone predicted?
I've always assumed the latter and it was this pattern which led me to lump in to the Betfair market when Remain broke 1.6 last week as that was the classic 'wobble bottom' moment as I think I posted once or twice.
- Most people registering late were not new young electors but dupliclates of existing voters
- Young people turning up to vote less than they told the pollsters because on holiday or lazy
- Older people made more determined to vote by the bitter campaign
- Shy LEAVE voters too ashamed about Jo Cox to admit it to pollsters
- Rain causes luke warm REMAIN supporters not to bother to vote
- Postal votes were cast at the time LEAVE were well ahead
- UKIP repeat their GOTV operation when they won the European elections
RESULT. LEAVE win 55/45.
Possible. Equally:
- the youngsters would otherwise have been unable to vote - early indications of turnout suggest GE levels or better - older people are risk-averse and some may be drifting away from Leave - shy Remain voters in Essex and elsewhere have wisely kept their heads down - the rain is falling mostly on Leave areas south and east of London - most postal voters weren't going to change their minds anyway - as well as the elderly, PVs include lots of students, ethnic minorities, and EU ex-pats - GE evidence is that UKIP gets stretched in nationwide contests and is no match for the established parties
Leavers keep referring to the weather being helpful but hasn't large parts of the south east been flooded. Just seen on Sky a couple in Essex flooded, at one time knee deep. This could effect leavers as well. If your home is flooded you may have bigger priorities.
I voted unselfishly today. Remain is better for me, wealthy and City based. Leave will lead to market chaos in the short term (thank GO for egging this on instead of pouring cold water) and political strife. My own livelihood will be affected.
But Remain is a betrayal of the UK in the long-term. We are not in the Euro, but its failure pours out victims to our shore and loony Merkel welcomes the diaspora of the Middle East too.
Wages for the poor are held down and our economic productivity has fallen as low wages mean companies investment as they can make profits with 0% interest rates and falling wages bills.
Meanwhile, house prices rise and pressure on services grows, all for people who can't afford an alternative.
Hoping my 5-1 leave bet comes off, but we'll see soon!
Never been convinced by an EU army. The UN forces always seem to be ineffectual and having several nationalities together isn't a recipe for efficiency.
And I'd better not mention the old joke about Italian tanks. Oh, alright, I will. Four reverse gears, and one forward - just in case they're attacked from behind.
I'm now assuming Juncker will be celebrating tomorrow.
if Remain win. Congratulations. We'll survive, and tomorrow is another day.
Mr. Smith, I didn't see an option to join the eurozone on the ballot paper.
Neither do I, but that's why I'm voing Leave, a big, huge, crushing Remain win gives them a mandate to carry us a long way into the EU project, to a point where joining the Euro is inevitable.
Just voted. Was surprised the ballots are done on white, photocopier paper, black ink. The ballot papers for our work bake-off are more secure than that.
Your bake-off ballot papers are all individually serial-numbered on the back, perforated by a pattern of dots kept secret until the day, and counted out and back to balance the count with the number issued? And you keep a complete record of which numbered paper went to which voter? Impressive stuff indeed....
Our antiquated polling system works very well indeed. It would be very hard - some might say impossible - to game it to a large degree.
Widespread modern postal voting is less so, although I doubt PV fraud is as widespread as some think.
In comparison, electronic voting is untrustworthy with current technology. And that goes for both EV-at-polling-station as well as EV-from-home systems.
My problem with electronic voting is not the security - after all we use electronic banking. It is the ease of electronic voting that worries me.
It debases the vote to clicking on "like" or vote up, vote down. It trivialises it. I like the drama and seriousness of going to the polling station and marking your cross with a pencil. It is serious stuff - not to be dumbed down.
You make a good point. But do think that electronic banking is a red herring - and it is not as if ebanking is exactly secure as it is.
The main problems with evoting IMO are: 1) It introduces opportunities to commit massive, widescale fraud that cannot be easily committed with our current system. 2) Detecting fraudulent voting is much, much harder. 3) It reduces confidence in the system (a similar argument can be made for increasing PV participation).
Read "The Stainless Steel Rat Runs for President" - Harry Harrison (SF). Not great literature but a real dig at US presidential elections.
In other betfair news, the implied expected turnout from that market is 71-72%, which would be the biggest UK poll since at least the 1997 GE (which was 71.3%).
The new registration system (IER) will add a percent or two by dint of removing from registers large numbers of people who have moved away or died, plus some who should be on the register but probably wouldn't have voted anyway.
Comments
https://t.co/TsIUBexvHa https://t.co/Xl75MboJMr
...and an outsider in the main event...
It's fascinating seeing to watch his character developing. He seems both similar to his parents (e.g. he is an explorer and never sits still), yet also undoubtedly an individual.
NEW THREAD NEW THREADO
It debases the vote to clicking on "like" or vote up, vote down. It trivialises it. I like the drama and seriousness of going to the polling station and marking your cross with a pencil. It is serious stuff - not to be dumbed down.
We are just smiling and showing a presence, and keeping a broad tally of turnout rate.
Campaign to get us into the Euro starts tomorrow...
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB · 26s27 seconds ago
Note the final Populus poll with the 10% REMAIN lead was online
The main problems with evoting IMO are:
1) It introduces opportunities to commit massive, widescale fraud that cannot be easily committed with our current system.
2) Detecting fraudulent voting is much, much harder.
3) It reduces confidence in the system (a similar argument can be made for increasing PV participation).
But Remain is a betrayal of the UK in the long-term. We are not in the Euro, but its failure pours out victims to our shore and loony Merkel welcomes the diaspora of the Middle East too.
Wages for the poor are held down and our economic productivity has fallen as low wages mean companies investment as they can make profits with 0% interest rates and falling wages bills.
Meanwhile, house prices rise and pressure on services grows, all for people who can't afford an alternative.
Hoping my 5-1 leave bet comes off, but we'll see soon!
Euro is back on the agenda after today for sure.
- Most people registering late were not new young electors but dupliclates of existing voters
- Young people turning up to vote less than they told the pollsters because on holiday or lazy
- Older people made more determined to vote by the bitter campaign
- Shy LEAVE voters too ashamed about Jo Cox to admit it to pollsters
- Rain causes luke warm REMAIN supporters not to bother to vote
- Postal votes were cast at the time LEAVE were well ahead
- UKIP repeat their GOTV operation when they won the European elections
RESULT. LEAVE win 55/45.
(And to everyone else, leaver or remainer, Labour or Conservative. But no-one else.
In other betfair news, the implied expected turnout from that market is 71-72%, which would be the biggest UK poll since at least the 1997 GE (which was 71.3%).
Damian Thompson @holysmoke · 14s15 seconds ago
These men have played every dirty trick in the book to keep us in the corrupt, collapsing EU. They can get stuffed.
Quite hacked off, to be honest and feeling quite guilty. Wishing I had done a Casino_Royale and just done something independently.
- the youngsters would otherwise have been unable to vote
- early indications of turnout suggest GE levels or better
- older people are risk-averse and some may be drifting away from Leave
- shy Remain voters in Essex and elsewhere have wisely kept their heads down
- the rain is falling mostly on Leave areas south and east of London
- most postal voters weren't going to change their minds anyway
- as well as the elderly, PVs include lots of students, ethnic minorities, and EU ex-pats
- GE evidence is that UKIP gets stretched in nationwide contests and is no match for the established parties
And I'd better not mention the old joke about Italian tanks. Oh, alright, I will. Four reverse gears, and one forward - just in case they're attacked from behind.
I'm now assuming Juncker will be celebrating tomorrow.
if Remain win. Congratulations. We'll survive, and tomorrow is another day.