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Or perhaps just induced people to suddenly become Shy Leavers, when asked by the pollsters...JennyFreeman said:
i don't think people think that maturely or logically I'm afraid.John_M said:
If Leave lose, then some people will blame Thomas Mair. I don't think it stands up.kle4 said:
I disagree. There's no way at all for us to know if that is why people are voting the way they are - it happened after a major swing to leave some swing back to Remain was perfectly possible.JennyFreeman said:
i do agree. If leave lose it's thomas mair who lost it for them.FrankBooth said:Nick Watt claimed a major leaver told him last week they thought they had it in the bag. Then the events of last Thursday.
And if it is a big remain win, it definitely wasn't the reason. But even a slight one, it's unprovable, so it's an excuse if leavers blame it.
If people's allegiance to a cause can be swayed by what is essentially a tragic non sequitur then it's the Leave campaign's fault for not making its case compelling enough.
yes if leave loses it will be down to the murder. it painted an ugly picture.0 -
The BBC tell me there is no exit poll.Anorak said:
As a Remainer, I guess this must be what a Labour voter felt like at the GE. Rising confidence, better than expected result, progressive alliance in the bag.Scott_P said:@MSmithsonPB: Peter Kellner predicts REMAIN by 8.5& https://t.co/0kAUNXyx6T
I hope I don't experience the same thing they did at 10 in the evening. Actually, is there an exit poll due?0 -
At least one of my bets has come in in price (May) !AlastairMeeks said:Watch the birdie:
Last matched price for next Conservative leader:
Boris Johnson - 4.5
Theresa May - 4.9
(George Osborne 8.6, Michael Gove 9)
EDIT
NB crossover on the next Prime Minister:
Boris Johnson - 5.3
Theresa May - 5.10 -
Thanks, always a leftie and it affects his judgement.AndyJS said:
This was his final Prospect article before the general election:Scott_P said:@MSmithsonPB: Peter Kellner predicts REMAIN by 8.5& https://t.co/0kAUNXyx6T
"General Election 2015: The Tories are still toxic
David Cameron has failed to convince voters that his party are committed to raising living standards"
http://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/blogs/peter-kellner/general-election-2015-the-tories-are-still-toxic
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If Remain wins maybe Cameron will stay. He must enjoy winning elections and vanquishing his enemies, why would he give it up?0
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@JoeMurphyLondon: 66% say Cameron was right to call referendum - 24% say he was wrong. #finalpoll @ipsosMORI @eveningstandardedmundintokyo said:If Remain wins maybe Cameron will stay. He must enjoy winning elections and vanquishing his enemies, why would he give it up?
@JoeMurphyLondon: Should Cameron resign if he loses? Only 40% say he should, reveales #finalpoll. 45% say he shd stay in power. @IpsosMORI @EveningStandard0 -
@AlbertoNardelli: We polled the pollsters - most say Remain, but only just https://t.co/puZTOyfhEO #EUref0
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It's simply the swingback we have long predicted.DavidL said:There has clearly been a swing back to remain in the last few days. Was this the keeping hold of nurse factor long predicted, Osborne's very clever "emergency budget" nonsense, Jo Cox, Ruth Davidson, that poster or all of the above? We will never know for sure but the only clear polling evidence points to Osborne and the very marked increase in concern about the personal finance implications of Brexit.
Leave now requires more differential turnout than currently predicted, a significant built in advantage in the 17% or so of votes cast when they were riding higher in the polls or conclusive evidence that polling companies are crap. It's not impossible but its a long shot. 6+ long shot? That still looks pretty generous to me.
The "claims" of why are basically a failed Remain campaign trying to hide it's poor performance.0 -
Tick tock, losers! Read the polls and weep!0
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How does an unelected person such as Mason, that supports the opposition party hope to have a renegotiation? Fantasy land.rottenborough said:Paul Mason @paulmasonnews
I just voted Remain. Now let's renegotiate Lisbon and sweep away neoliberalism with a Europe-wide revolt @ahorapodemos @GlobalDebout
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#EICIPM
#ticktock
#TippingPoint0 -
And prepare his successor. Ruth?edmundintokyo said:If Remain wins maybe Cameron will stay. He must enjoy winning elections and vanquishing his enemies, why would he give it up?
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It is quite funny to watch all the professionals solemnly predicting their forecasts with just as much confirmation bias as us lot lol.
Any details about IPSOS. Is it same methodology, is 52/48 all voters, likely voters or certain voters. How big was the sample. Without that the headline figure is meaningless.0 -
Went and bought my holiday Euros yesterday (off in September). Wifer is going to get some end of August.
Who is likely to do better, I wonder!0 -
@ftwestminster: Thomas Mair trial set for November 14 https://t.co/jqoOsV2VTh0
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I'll be interested to see the Ipsos tables.
Comres had Remain 10 ahead in the Midlands last night. Unique at this stage.0 -
7 does seem a ceiling on betfair.
My 7.2 has been sitting there for an hour.0 -
Hear hear.Bob__Sykes said:I ended at the polling station this morning where I began in February - bitterly torn, heart saying one thing, the head saying another, and irritated and annoyed that we're having a vote at this time on this question, and feeling let down by the Prime Minister, who ultimately is responsible for this, his hopeless renegotiation and for the fallout that follows whatever the outcome.
I voted Remain, I know many on here will be dismayed by that, in truth I am a little myself, but the "head" won out. Cool hard economic reasoning (and a degree of self-interest) over emotion. I did at least hover over the boxes rather than my usual confident crossing of a box without a moment's hesitation. I even felt a bit choked.
I just want this all to be over, and let's get on with our lives again...!
NEVER AGAIN.0 -
There is an element of trying to predict swingback in the numbers produced by Com Res, ORB, and Yougov. I wouldn't expect further swingback on the day.DavidL said:There has clearly been a swing back to remain in the last few days. Was this the keeping hold of nurse factor long predicted, Osborne's very clever "emergency budget" nonsense, Jo Cox, Ruth Davidson, that poster or all of the above? We will never know for sure but the only clear polling evidence points to Osborne and the very marked increase in concern about the personal finance implications of Brexit.
Leave now requires more differential turnout than currently predicted, a significant built in advantage in the 17% or so of votes cast when they were riding higher in the polls or conclusive evidence that polling companies are crap. It's not impossible but its a long shot. 6+ long shot? That still looks pretty generous to me.0 -
Mr. Betting, quite. Mason's off his head. Says he dislikes the EU because it can't be a democracy but wants to stay in to prevent the democratically elected government having a free hand.
Mr. Tokyo, Cameron remaining or not may not be his choice to make.0 -
Well, exactly. If Leave win, suddenly I guess the tragedy had no effect, but if Remain win its wailing about how much effect it had. Maybe it had some, maybe it had none, it hardly matters, but leave rallied in the last couple of days, some polls have had them doing well, so I don't see it had any effect.RodCrosby said:
Or perhaps just induced people to suddenly become Shy Leavers, when asked by the pollsters...JennyFreeman said:
i don't think people think that maturely or logically I'm afraid.John_M said:
If Leave lose, then some people will blame Thomas Mair. I don't think it stands up.kle4 said:
I disagree. There's no way at all for us to know if that is why people are voting the way they are - it happened after a major swing to leave some swing back to Remain was perfectly possible.JennyFreeman said:
i do agree. If leave lose it's thomas mair who lost it for them.FrankBooth said:Nick Watt claimed a major leaver told him last week they thought they had it in the bag. Then the events of last Thursday.
And if it is a big remain win, it definitely wasn't the reason. But even a slight one, it's unprovable, so it's an excuse if leavers blame it.
If people's allegiance to a cause can be swayed by what is essentially a tragic non sequitur then it's the Leave campaign's fault for not making its case compelling enough.
yes if leave loses it will be down to the murder. it painted an ugly picture.0 -
No exit poll. No previous election data to use to underpin the statistical findings. Rumours that banks have done exit polling, but they will face same problem.Anorak said:
The BBC tell me there is no exit poll.Anorak said:
As a Remainer, I guess this must be what a Labour voter felt like at the GE. Rising confidence, better than expected result, progressive alliance in the bag.Scott_P said:@MSmithsonPB: Peter Kellner predicts REMAIN by 8.5& https://t.co/0kAUNXyx6T
I hope I don't experience the same thing they did at 10 in the evening. Actually, is there an exit poll due?0 -
Leave out to 7. What is going on?!0
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I hope you all noticed the subtle pop music reference in Ben Page's tweet.
I'm a bad influence.0 -
I note that Andrea Leadsom has come in to 18.5 as Cameron's replacement from a starting point of 130 a few weeks ago.0
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what is EICIPM? Ed Is *** *** Prime Minister?EICIPM said:#EICIPM
#ticktock
#TippingPoint0 -
I really, really, don't agree with all this voting day polling that's going on!TheScreamingEagles said:There's a Populus poll out at midday.
Interesting as they are Remain's private pollster.
Electoral commission needs to bring this to an end for subsequent elections.0 -
He honestly comes across as a little bonkers, one of those types who is convinced about what the people want and that it matches his thoughts, even though the people never vote for it when offered.TCPoliticalBetting said:
How does an unelected person such as Mason, that supports the opposition party hope to have a renegotiation? Fantasy land.rottenborough said:Paul Mason @paulmasonnews
I just voted Remain. Now let's renegotiate Lisbon and sweep away neoliberalism with a Europe-wide revolt @ahorapodemos @GlobalDebout
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The downside of voting Remain is that we’ll have to put up with Cameron’s smug smile.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Betting, quite. Mason's off his head. Says he dislikes the EU because it can't be a democracy but wants to stay in to prevent the democratically elected government having a free hand.
Mr. Tokyo, Cameron remaining or not may not be his choice to make.0 -
Good morning everyone.
A beautiful morning here in the Newton Abbot constituency. I've just returned from voting and the polling station was doing brisk, steady business.
One teller outside, for Remain, handing out stickers saying "I voted Remain" to anyone who would take them.
He caught me on the hop, so I accepted the sticker although I didn't vote Remain!0 -
That analysis is pretty much identical to mine, in all respects, including the error bars and finger-in-the-air adjustments. He's just a touch higher on his Remain midpoint than I am, so I think Leave might just edge it if they are lucky.Scott_P said:@MSmithsonPB: Peter Kellner predicts REMAIN by 8.5& https://t.co/0kAUNXyx6T
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BTW belated thanks to whoever it was that tipped Higher Power at Kempton Park on here yesterday - I know nothing about horse racing but as the tip came my way I risked a few £, and as a 9/2 winner I now have enough to buy a nice bottle of wine for this evening....0
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And on that we can all agree.....Bob__Sykes said:
I just want this all to be over, and let's get on with our lives again...!
Just hope the tories can 'somehow' pull themselves back together.
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It's odd to be rubbishing your own polling. Online pollsters have made one adjustment after another that's unfavourable to Leave, but still show it as tight. Without those adjustments, online pollsters would be showing Leave close to 10% ahead.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Kellner "As I think the online surveys may be overstating support for Brexit, I reckon that the likely Remain vote ahead of today’s vote was 51-55%, with 45-49% plumping for Leave."Scott_P said:@MSmithsonPB: Peter Kellner predicts REMAIN by 8.5& https://t.co/0kAUNXyx6T
When Kellner was at Yougov last year he was badly burned on GE night because of how wrong pollsters such as Yougov were. Now Kellner backs phone polls... Problem for Kellner could be if Yougov have actually improved their systems and weightings to the point where they are the most accurate. One little fight worth watching.0 -
rottenborough said:
I suppose you could argue there's a big momentum here behind Remain. But going back to that chart about differential turn out, Remain needs to ahead by more unless turn out is very high.Scott_P said:@MSmithsonPB: A week and a half ago @IpsosMORI had LEAVE 6% ahead. In its final poll it has REMAIN 4% ahead
Is there any such thing as momentum, psephologically? Isn't it just a mirage based on undecideds firming up for the status quo?0 -
But there is also an even larger error due to all the sampling problems pollsters have. The were miles out last year, and have made numerous changes to their methodologies over the last few months which doesn't exactly fill me with confidence that they really have solved their problems. Still we won't have to wait long to see.IanB2 said:But the margin of error works two ways. Therefore even a narrow margin in the polls translates into a reasonably high probability of the side being ahead actually winning, since there's a 50% chance they will actually do better than the poll, a chance that the poll is spot on, plus a further ??% chance that the result falls below the poll but still better than 50/50...
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Likewise. Just gone in at 7. Twice what my previous bets were. Got to be value.AlastairMeeks said:I've put some money on Leave at current prices. If it loses, it looks like a value loser to me on the information that we currently have.
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More polling that must be even more favourable to Remain.not_on_fire said:Leave out to 7. What is going on?!
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Does it say for how long? Because he shouldn't flounce out the door tomorrow if he loses, but he will go in a few months, so still staying in power.Scott_P said:
@JoeMurphyLondon: 66% say Cameron was right to call referendum - 24% say he was wrong. #finalpoll @ipsosMORI @eveningstandardedmundintokyo said:If Remain wins maybe Cameron will stay. He must enjoy winning elections and vanquishing his enemies, why would he give it up?
@JoeMurphyLondon: Should Cameron resign if he loses? Only 40% say he should, reveales #finalpoll. 45% say he shd stay in power. @IpsosMORI @EveningStandard
I agree with the main finding though - those criticising the referendum as needless ignore that it will probably be 45-55 of the country want to vote leave. He could tried to have not held a referendum, but clearly it was an issue that needed to be addressed, even if people make the wrong choice.0 -
Ed is Crap, Is Prime MinisterParistonda said:
what is EICIPM? Ed Is *** *** Prime Minister?EICIPM said:#EICIPM
#ticktock
#TippingPoint
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He'll want to stay but will he be allowed to?edmundintokyo said:If Remain wins maybe Cameron will stay. He must enjoy winning elections and vanquishing his enemies, why would he give it up?
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Mr. Borough, I think if Hurstpierpoint is any guide that turnout could be very high. For this referendum they have opened a second polling station (never had that before in any election) and at 10:00 people were queuing out of the door at both. According to the clerk at the place I voted, "It's been like this since bloody seven o'clock."rottenborough said:
I suppose you could argue there's a big momentum here behind Remain. But going back to that chart about differential turn out, Remain needs to ahead by more unless turn out is very high.Scott_P said:@MSmithsonPB: A week and a half ago @IpsosMORI had LEAVE 6% ahead. In its final poll it has REMAIN 4% ahead
In addition to the number of people voting, I was also surprised to see several people I know who live on the council estate, who seldom if ever vote. It may be therefore that the good people of Hurstpierpoint are determined that their voice should be heard. I hope so, and I hope the pattern is repeated everywhere.0 -
Nice! I notice Lennon hasn't resurfaced yet, so I guess he had a good night tooIanB2 said:BTW belated thanks to whoever it was that tipped Higher Power at Kempton Park on here yesterday - I know nothing about horse racing but as the tip came my way I risked a few £, and as a 9/2 winner I now have enough to buy a nice bottle of wine for this evening....
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Sterling currently trading at a 2016 high vs USD (which alone gives some idea of the effect of the Brexit uncertainty). I'm not entirely convinced that that uncertainty is yet over though. Might be a choppy 24 hours or so.0
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Mason's a fraud. His contorted justifications for his vote are damning.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Betting, quite. Mason's off his head. Says he dislikes the EU because it can't be a democracy but wants to stay in to prevent the democratically elected government having a free hand.
Mr. Tokyo, Cameron remaining or not may not be his choice to make.0 -
I love the idea that Paul Mason's views on the EU mark him out as being barking, as opposed to his views on every other subject under the sun.0
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Which would net me close to £6k on my Spreadex bet:)Sean_F said:
It's odd to be rubbishing your own polling. Online pollsters have made one adjustment after another that's unfavourable to Leave, but still show it as tight. Without those adjustments, online pollsters would be showing Leave close to 10% ahead.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Kellner "As I think the online surveys may be overstating support for Brexit, I reckon that the likely Remain vote ahead of today’s vote was 51-55%, with 45-49% plumping for Leave."Scott_P said:@MSmithsonPB: Peter Kellner predicts REMAIN by 8.5& https://t.co/0kAUNXyx6T
When Kellner was at Yougov last year he was badly burned on GE night because of how wrong pollsters such as Yougov were. Now Kellner backs phone polls... Problem for Kellner could be if Yougov have actually improved their systems and weightings to the point where they are the most accurate. One little fight worth watching.0 -
Ed is Crap is PM - the seeming position that was being suggested by polls running up to the GE, wrong though it turned out to be.Paristonda said:
what is EICIPM? Ed Is *** *** Prime Minister?EICIPM said:#EICIPM
#ticktock
#TippingPoint0 -
Gone in with another tenner at 7.00
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Typical leaver, wanting to ban stuff, first it was the free movement of people, now it's opinion polls, next you'll be banning rumpy pumpyGIN1138 said:
I really, really, don't agree with all this voting day polling that's going on!TheScreamingEagles said:There's a Populus poll out at midday.
Interesting as they are Remain's private pollster.
Electoral commission needs to bring this to an end for subsequent elections.0 -
I don't know. They always talk about the 'big mo' in US politics. I suppose if you've not voted yet and you go into the office and they are all saying they voted earlier for Remain, you might think twice.Jobabob said:rottenborough said:
I suppose you could argue there's a big momentum here behind Remain. But going back to that chart about differential turn out, Remain needs to ahead by more unless turn out is very high.Scott_P said:@MSmithsonPB: A week and a half ago @IpsosMORI had LEAVE 6% ahead. In its final poll it has REMAIN 4% ahead
Is there any such thing as momentum, psephologically? Isn't it just a mirage based on undecideds firming up for the status quo?0 -
Louise Mensch claims the Welsh valleys are voting 70/30 Leave:
twitter.com/LouiseMensch/status/7459069943269335040 -
Presumably the IPSOS MORI 52% REMAIN is a phone poll?
So we have a referendum on whether online polls or phone polls are more accurate.0 -
No, lets not...Slackbladder said:Bob__Sykes said:
I just want this all to be over, and let's get on with our lives again...!
Just hope the tories can 'somehow' pull themselves back together.
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If ever there was an atmosphere for a shy voter effect in the polls, it is for this election.One side has been accused of murder.0
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I'm sticking with my prediction of Remain 50.5% Leave 49.5%.0
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Just voted. Remain people everywhere. They say the polling is 'Significantly higher' than the GE
Just put a bet on 70-80% even money0 -
'Only' 40% think the PM should resign, and you post that as a good thing?Scott_P said:
@JoeMurphyLondon: 66% say Cameron was right to call referendum - 24% say he was wrong. #finalpoll @ipsosMORI @eveningstandardedmundintokyo said:If Remain wins maybe Cameron will stay. He must enjoy winning elections and vanquishing his enemies, why would he give it up?
@JoeMurphyLondon: Should Cameron resign if he loses? Only 40% say he should, reveales #finalpoll. 45% say he shd stay in power. @IpsosMORI @EveningStandard
Wow.0 -
YEEEEEEEESSSSSS told you. Pity i missed it.EICIPM said:
Ed is Crap, Is Prime MinisterParistonda said:
what is EICIPM? Ed Is *** *** Prime Minister?EICIPM said:#EICIPM
#ticktock
#TippingPoint0 -
Why? I agree he hasn't explained himself very well. But a concern at the sort of people that will probably end up running the country if we go Brexit now - essentially the right wing of the Tory Party, at best - is, for someone with his views, surely a legitimate reason to discount any longer term concerns he might have about the EU project?MonikerDiCanio said:
Mason's a fraud. His contorted justifications for his vote are damning.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Betting, quite. Mason's off his head. Says he dislikes the EU because it can't be a democracy but wants to stay in to prevent the democratically elected government having a free hand.
Mr. Tokyo, Cameron remaining or not may not be his choice to make.0 -
Ah! The old "Holding up a piece of paper with a solemn promise on it" tactic.TOPPING said:
I'm sure.MarqueeMark said:
I'm also expecting buyer's remorse to be swift and harsh if we vote to Remain! The EU has been walking on egg-shells, saying nothing that could rock the boat for a couple of months. There's going to be pent-up stuff coming out that will get more than a few people spitting nails...OllyT said:
I would estimate about 20-25% positively want to stay, particularly at the younger end of the spectrum. I would also say that most people don't have a scooby doo about the EU. The ignorance and misinformation is appalling when you hear Joe Public being interviewed. It has become the convenient scapegoat to blame for all their problems. That's why Leave is doing so well, they can project everyone's concerns on the EU and promise them everything will be better if we just leave.MarqueeMark said:The big fight today is between those who want to leave the EU - and those who want to leave the EU but are too scared of the consequences.
The number of people who want to stay in the EU because it is wonderful are tiny.
Of course if we do leave within a year everyone will be blaming all their woes on Brexit.
I am sanguine about the result, fortunate enough not to be affected either way but I am expecting the buyer's remorse to swift and harsh if we leave, particularly once we opt for a solution that maintains freedom of movement as I am certain we will.
And then, Dave produces his piece of paper saying: No Ever Closer Union.
And PUUFFFFFFFFFT! All that pent-up stuff will be repelled.
Remind me again how well that worked out for Neville Chamberlain.0 -
Number who would actually change their vote for an irrelevant reason like a murder: minusculekle4 said:
Well, exactly. If Leave win, suddenly I guess the tragedy had no effect, but if Remain win its wailing about how much effect it had. Maybe it had some, maybe it had none, it hardly matters, but leave rallied in the last couple of days, some polls have had them doing well, so I don't see it had any effect.RodCrosby said:
Or perhaps just induced people to suddenly become Shy Leavers, when asked by the pollsters...JennyFreeman said:
i don't think people think that maturely or logically I'm afraid.John_M said:
If Leave lose, then some people will blame Thomas Mair. I don't think it stands up.kle4 said:
I disagree. There's no way at all for us to know if that is why people are voting the way they are - it happened after a major swing to leave some swing back to Remain was perfectly possible.JennyFreeman said:
i do agree. If leave lose it's thomas mair who lost it for them.FrankBooth said:Nick Watt claimed a major leaver told him last week they thought they had it in the bag. Then the events of last Thursday.
And if it is a big remain win, it definitely wasn't the reason. But even a slight one, it's unprovable, so it's an excuse if leavers blame it.
If people's allegiance to a cause can be swayed by what is essentially a tragic non sequitur then it's the Leave campaign's fault for not making its case compelling enough.
yes if leave loses it will be down to the murder. it painted an ugly picture.
Number who might be embarrassed to admit they were voting Leave amid the grief-fest: considerable0 -
WARNING! THIS POST CAN NOT BE UNSEEN. DO NOT CLICK IF YOU ARE OF A NERVOUS DISPOSITION. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED!TheScreamingEagles said:Typical leaver, wanting to ban stuff, first it was the free movement of people, now it's opinion polls, next you'll be banning rumpy pumpy
@Edwina_Currie: Enjoy https://t.co/ihne7EpNyp0 -
And the other of treason.nunu said:If ever there was an atmosphere for a shy voter effect in the polls, it is for this election.One side has been accused of murder.
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If he loses being the important thing.Mortimer said:
'Only' 40% think the PM should resign, and you post that as a good thing?Scott_P said:
@JoeMurphyLondon: 66% say Cameron was right to call referendum - 24% say he was wrong. #finalpoll @ipsosMORI @eveningstandardedmundintokyo said:If Remain wins maybe Cameron will stay. He must enjoy winning elections and vanquishing his enemies, why would he give it up?
@JoeMurphyLondon: Should Cameron resign if he loses? Only 40% say he should, reveales #finalpoll. 45% say he shd stay in power. @IpsosMORI @EveningStandard
Wow.0 -
I thought he'd already been replaced with Tusk?TheScreamingEagles said:
Typical leaver, wanting to ban stuff, first it was the free movement of people, now it's opinion polls, next you'll be banning rumpy pumpyGIN1138 said:
I really, really, don't agree with all this voting day polling that's going on!TheScreamingEagles said:There's a Populus poll out at midday.
Interesting as they are Remain's private pollster.
Electoral commission needs to bring this to an end for subsequent elections.0 -
Am I right in thinking that the last IPSOS MORI showed a Leave lead? If so, a four point Remain win is surely a big move. Direction of travel and all that.
That said, it may be time for another little Leave flutter. The odds are horribly tempting, but my wife would kill me if I put even more money on this.0 -
The news channels have to be very, very careful what they say/report before 10pm, why should opinion pollsters be any different?TheScreamingEagles said:
Typical leaver, wanting to ban stuff, first it was the free movement of people, now it's opinion polls, next you'll be banning rumpy pumpyGIN1138 said:
I really, really, don't agree with all this voting day polling that's going on!TheScreamingEagles said:There's a Populus poll out at midday.
Interesting as they are Remain's private pollster.
Electoral commission needs to bring this to an end for subsequent elections.
These polls could be encouraging LEAVERS to not bother voting because it's already over and on the same token they could be encouraging REMAINERS to not bother because REMAIN have it in the bag.0 -
Are you sticking with your Leave forecast Southam?SouthamObserver said:Am I right in thinking that the last IPSOS MORI showed a Leave lead? If so, a four point Remain win is surely a big move. Direction of travel and all that.
That said, it may be time for another little Leave flutter. The odds are horribly tempting, but my wife would kill me if I put even more money on this.0 -
Only if it is procreative - we can't have remainers outnumbering us in future votes.TheScreamingEagles said:
Typical leaver, wanting to ban stuff, first it was the free movement of people, now it's opinion polls, next you'll be banning rumpy pumpyGIN1138 said:
I really, really, don't agree with all this voting day polling that's going on!TheScreamingEagles said:There's a Populus poll out at midday.
Interesting as they are Remain's private pollster.
Electoral commission needs to bring this to an end for subsequent elections.
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@Mortimer There's a base percentage of people in polls who think that X should resign no matter what the reason. In that context, only 40% wanting the Prime Minister to resign if Leave win is surprisingly low.
I can't see him hanging around too long in the event of a Leave win, mind.0 -
At least in Chamberlains case -some- of the other signatories intended to abide by it.Disraeli said:
Ah! The old "Holding up a piece of paper with a solemn promise on it" tactic.TOPPING said:
I'm sure.MarqueeMark said:
I'm also expecting buyer's remorse to be swift and harsh if we vote to Remain! The EU has been walking on egg-shells, saying nothing that could rock the boat for a couple of months. There's going to be pent-up stuff coming out that will get more than a few people spitting nails...OllyT said:
I would estimate about 20-25% positively want to stay, particularly at the younger end of the spectrum. I would also say that most people don't have a scooby doo about the EU. The ignorance and misinformation is appalling when you hear Joe Public being interviewed. It has become the convenient scapegoat to blame for all their problems. That's why Leave is doing so well, they can project everyone's concerns on the EU and promise them everything will be better if we just leave.MarqueeMark said:The big fight today is between those who want to leave the EU - and those who want to leave the EU but are too scared of the consequences.
The number of people who want to stay in the EU because it is wonderful are tiny.
Of course if we do leave within a year everyone will be blaming all their woes on Brexit.
I am sanguine about the result, fortunate enough not to be affected either way but I am expecting the buyer's remorse to swift and harsh if we leave, particularly once we opt for a solution that maintains freedom of movement as I am certain we will.
And then, Dave produces his piece of paper saying: No Ever Closer Union.
And PUUFFFFFFFFFT! All that pent-up stuff will be repelled.
Remind me again how well that worked out for Neville Chamberlain.0 -
For many years we've had polls on Election Day, has no impact.GIN1138 said:
The news channels have to be very, very careful what they say/report before 10pm, why should opinion pollsters be any different?TheScreamingEagles said:
Typical leaver, wanting to ban stuff, first it was the free movement of people, now it's opinion polls, next you'll be banning rumpy pumpyGIN1138 said:
I really, really, don't agree with all this voting day polling that's going on!TheScreamingEagles said:There's a Populus poll out at midday.
Interesting as they are Remain's private pollster.
Electoral commission needs to bring this to an end for subsequent elections.
These polls could be encouraging LEAVERS to not bother voting because it's already over and on the same token they could be encouraging REMAINERS to not bother because REMAIN have it in the bag.
In America, they report the results whilst the polling stations are still open0 -
@PolhomeEditor: EXCL: Heathrow runway decision 'in two weeks' https://t.co/sEedJKOLov https://t.co/lgerT9k2im0
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You need to check the tables though, to see if it's a like for like comparison.SouthamObserver said:Am I right in thinking that the last IPSOS MORI showed a Leave lead? If so, a four point Remain win is surely a big move. Direction of travel and all that.
That said, it may be time for another little Leave flutter. The odds are horribly tempting, but my wife would kill me if I put even more money on this.
Still way better for Leave than the numbers that Ipsos MORI have produced except for last week.0 -
@AndyJS
Scott_P @MSmithsonPB: Peter Kellner predicts REMAIN by 8.5& https://t.co/0kAUNXyx6T>
This was his final Prospect article before the general election:
General Election 2015: The Tories are still toxic
David Cameron has failed to convince voters that his party are committed to raising living standards"
http://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/blogs/peter-kellner/general-election-2015-the-tories-are-still-toxic'
The law of averages means Kellner will eventually get something right.0 -
Possibly - but then Leave had some increased and leads just yesterday. Could still be an underestimate, I'm predicting 54 for Leave, but the point is even amid the atmosphere direction of travel of leave was caught, so any actual change of vote seems unlikely and therefore blaming a remain win on it misplaced.RodCrosby said:
Number who would actually change their vote for an irrelevant reason like a murder: minusculekle4 said:
Well, exactly. If Leave win, suddenly I guess the tragedy had no effect, but if Remain win its wailing about how much effect it had. Maybe it had some, maybe it had none, it hardly matters, but leave rallied in the last couple of days, some polls have had them doing well, so I don't see it had any effect.RodCrosby said:
Or perhaps just induced people to suddenly become Shy Leavers, when asked by the pollsters...JennyFreeman said:
i don't think people think that maturely or logically I'm afraid.John_M said:
If Leave lose, then some people will blame Thomas Mair. I don't think it stands up.kle4 said:
I disagree. There's no way at all for us to know if that is why people are voting the way they are - it happened after a major swing to leave some swing back to Remain was perfectly possible.JennyFreeman said:
i do agree. If leave lose it's thomas mair who lost it for them.FrankBooth said:Nick Watt claimed a major leaver told him last week they thought they had it in the bag. Then the events of last Thursday.
And if it is a big remain win, it definitely wasn't the reason. But even a slight one, it's unprovable, so it's an excuse if leavers blame it.
If people's allegiance to a cause can be swayed by what is essentially a tragic non sequitur then it's the Leave campaign's fault for not making its case compelling enough.
yes if leave loses it will be down to the murder. it painted an ugly picture.
Number who might be embarrassed to admit they were voting Leave amid the grief-fest: considerable0 -
Yes and for many years I've said it's a bad doo. Least I'm consistent...TheScreamingEagles said:
For many years we've had polls on Election Day, has no impact.GIN1138 said:
The news channels have to be very, very careful what they say/report before 10pm, why should opinion pollsters be any different?TheScreamingEagles said:
Typical leaver, wanting to ban stuff, first it was the free movement of people, now it's opinion polls, next you'll be banning rumpy pumpyGIN1138 said:
I really, really, don't agree with all this voting day polling that's going on!TheScreamingEagles said:There's a Populus poll out at midday.
Interesting as they are Remain's private pollster.
Electoral commission needs to bring this to an end for subsequent elections.
These polls could be encouraging LEAVERS to not bother voting because it's already over and on the same token they could be encouraging REMAINERS to not bother because REMAIN have it in the bag.
0 -
Firmed up my Leave vote to see remain doing well in the pollsrottenborough said:
I don't know. They always talk about the 'big mo' in US politics. I suppose if you've not voted yet and you go into the office and they are all saying they voted earlier for Remain, you might think twice.Jobabob said:rottenborough said:
I suppose you could argue there's a big momentum here behind Remain. But going back to that chart about differential turn out, Remain needs to ahead by more unless turn out is very high.Scott_P said:@MSmithsonPB: A week and a half ago @IpsosMORI had LEAVE 6% ahead. In its final poll it has REMAIN 4% ahead
Is there any such thing as momentum, psephologically? Isn't it just a mirage based on undecideds firming up for the status quo?0 -
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Last time I heard him on the subject he said though the EU is undemocratic that pales into insignificance compared to the possibility of a government run by Boris Gove IDS Farage etc.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Betting, quite. Mason's off his head. Says he dislikes the EU because it can't be a democracy but wants to stay in to prevent the democratically elected government having a free hand.
Mr. Tokyo, Cameron remaining or not may not be his choice to make.
I know what he means0 -
He was on the tv for a number of hours after the GE exit poll saying the exit polls were wrong....Yougov had resurveyed on the day and saw no late swing etc etc etc.....but in this case I think he is right, albeit will be surprised if the margin is that wide.john_zims said:@AndyJS
Scott_P @MSmithsonPB: Peter Kellner predicts REMAIN by 8.5& https://t.co/0kAUNXyx6T>
This was his final Prospect article before the general election:
General Election 2015: The Tories are still toxic
David Cameron has failed to convince voters that his party are committed to raising living standards"
http://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/blogs/peter-kellner/general-election-2015-the-tories-are-still-toxic'
The law of averages means Kellner will eventually get something right.0 -
'Spose.AlastairMeeks said:@Mortimer There's a base percentage of people in polls who think that X should resign no matter what the reason. In that context, only 40% wanting the Prime Minister to resign if Leave win is surprisingly low.
I can't see him hanging around too long in the event of a Leave win, mind.
TBH if Leave win, I wouldn't necessarily want him to resign straight away. Announce his intention to, sure, but not actually go to the palace.0 -
London always gets what it wants. We will Remain.0
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The last Ipsos had Leave winning London.SouthamObserver said:Am I right in thinking that the last IPSOS MORI showed a Leave lead? If so, a four point Remain win is surely a big move. Direction of travel and all that.
That said, it may be time for another little Leave flutter. The odds are horribly tempting, but my wife would kill me if I put even more money on this.0 -
Just voted. Was surprised the ballots are done on white, photocopier paper, black ink. The ballot papers for our work bake-off are more secure than that.0
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It didn't at last year's general election. Lab 44%, Con 35%.FrankBooth said:London always gets what it wants. We will Remain.
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Tories like winners. Obviously depending on if he wins and the margin of victory I'd imagine plenty will hold their noses and back him regardless of their views. Not as if there are a load of great alternatives in the current batch of Tories.FrankBooth said:
He'll want to stay but will he be allowed to?edmundintokyo said:If Remain wins maybe Cameron will stay. He must enjoy winning elections and vanquishing his enemies, why would he give it up?
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I bet that is only in parts ie not places like Brighton where I suspect the opposite applies.midwinter said:
Depends where you live i guess. In sunny Sussex if you show any inclination towards Remain you're treated like a leper.nunu said:If ever there was an atmosphere for a shy voter effect in the polls, it is for this election.One side has been accused of murder.
Difference is that in if you get called a leper for remaining you can shrug it off, it is a toothless threat. Get yourself labelled racist Xeno or Homphobe or whatever for expressing support for Brexit and that could have real negative consequences for your future.0 -
The grip of Uk goverments come and go - the EU noose only tightens.Roger said:
Last time I heard him on the subject he said though the EU is undemocratic that pales into insignificance compared to the possibility of a government run by Boris Gove IDS Farage etc.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Betting, quite. Mason's off his head. Says he dislikes the EU because it can't be a democracy but wants to stay in to prevent the democratically elected government having a free hand.
Mr. Tokyo, Cameron remaining or not may not be his choice to make.
I know what he means0 -
By the by, is there a rule on how far away any election material has to be from a polling station. Passed anofficial banner about 100 yards (by foot, less as the crow flies,it was on a fence circling it) outside my polling station.0
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I've urged Dave to do this in the event of a Leave victory.Mortimer said:
'Spose.AlastairMeeks said:@Mortimer There's a base percentage of people in polls who think that X should resign no matter what the reason. In that context, only 40% wanting the Prime Minister to resign if Leave win is surprisingly low.
I can't see him hanging around too long in the event of a Leave win, mind.
TBH if Leave win, I wouldn't necessarily want him to resign straight away. Announce his intention to, sure, but not actually go to the palace.
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/745731968025911296/photo/10 -
Just got back from voting Leave in Eastbourne - steady stream, business described as 'pretty good'. It looked about GE level to me.AnneJGP said:Good morning everyone.
A beautiful morning here in the Newton Abbot constituency. I've just returned from voting and the polling station was doing brisk, steady business.
One teller outside, for Remain, handing out stickers saying "I voted Remain" to anyone who would take them.
He caught me on the hop, so I accepted the sticker although I didn't vote Remain!0 -
A bad Parliament is better than a good tyrant. Mason hasn't absorbed Tony Benn's warning.Roger said:
Last time I heard him on the subject he said though the EU is undemocratic that pales into insignificance compared to the possibility of a government run by Boris Gove IDS Farage etc.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Betting, quite. Mason's off his head. Says he dislikes the EU because it can't be a democracy but wants to stay in to prevent the democratically elected government having a free hand.
Mr. Tokyo, Cameron remaining or not may not be his choice to make.
I know what he means0