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Do I detect Leavers starting to throw the towel in? Seems a little early. Given everything we went through with GE polling, I still think this is too close to call and Labour voters may be about to give us Remainers a shock.

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

This final poll has got to be a real stonker for remain.

Is it phone or online?

Are they allowed to release a poll on polling day? Seems odd to me.

SPML said:

TGOHF said:

Ladbrokes Politics ‏@LadPolitics 55s55 seconds ago
Ladbrokes:

55% of bets placed so far today are for LEAVE.

That is very good news for leave.

Not if iT is a good of Leicester city fans putting a £5 on another long shot, while the city boys are piling millions on because of their leaked / private polling.

@TOPPING

(Sorry I took so long to respond, just been trying to get some actual work done.)

Re what happened after Major's letter to Santer about the UK being obliged to accept EU legislation from which it believed it had achieved a legally-binding opt-out:

The letter was written in 1996. The government didn't get anywhere in trying to ensure they got what they had believed they had agreed to. In 1997, Tony Blair won the general election and the Labour government adopted the Social Chapter.

Pong said:

SPML said:

TGOHF said:

Ladbrokes Politics ‏@LadPolitics 55s55 seconds ago
Ladbrokes:

55% of bets placed so far today are for LEAVE.

That is very good news for leave.

It's certainly very good news for Ladbrokes.

Or very very very very very bad, potentially.

SPML said:

TGOHF said:

Ladbrokes Politics ‏@LadPolitics 55s55 seconds ago
Ladbrokes:

55% of bets placed so far today are for LEAVE.

That is very good news for leave.

Maybe, or it could be wishful thinking.

PrinceofTaranto said:

Very odd this MORI poll coming out today>if you are a Londoner who hasn't voted and you see a big Remain lead ( as we presume) reading your paper on the way home surely it makes you less likely to vote whichever side you support?

I agree. I don't think polls should be allowed on polling day for the reason – and I am pretty sure they weren't published on polling day in days gone by.

DavidL said:

Voted about 8.10 this morning. No queue but maybe 50 had already voted. No signs, posters, tellers, anybody from either side. First time I have ever seen that. The SNP have always had signs up before.

Despite the number that had voted already (and of course the postal votes) I can't help feeling that Scottish participation will be on the low side. But we shall see...

Which council area?

LucyJones said:

@TOPPING

(Sorry I took so long to respond, just been trying to get some actual work done.)

Re what happened after Major's letter to Santer about the UK being obliged to accept EU legislation from which it believed it had achieved a legally-binding opt-out:

The letter was written in 1996. The government didn't get anywhere in trying to ensure they got what they had believed they had agreed to. In 1997, Tony Blair won the general election and the Labour government adopted the Social Chapter.

thx

rottenborough said:

Do I detect Leavers starting to throw the towel in? Seems a little early. Given everything we went through with GE polling, I still think this is too close to call and Labour voters may be about to give us Remainers a shock.

It's not throwing the towel in (though I used that phrase on here ten minutes ago!). It's just that it's out of our hands now isn't it?

Remain are relying on the cautious and the young, Leave on the normally-don't-vote brigade.

As Robert says, a Remain vote is, in the short term, good for me & several other regulars on this board - investment income makes up two thirds of my overall. Sean's flat will increase in value and so on. If nothing else, we will be able to console ourselves that we didn't actually sell our souls for a mess of pottage. We can blame you .

MarqueeMark said:

Anecdote alert. The Good Lady Wifi - whom I always expected would vote Remain - has wobbled more than SeanT on a fairground cakewalk. She did toy with Leave, but then was swung back by Sheila Hancock in last night's debate.

This morning, she woke up and said "Fuck it, let's Leave...."

Oh, and the polling station reported business to be very brisk.

Hurrah, and a much better wake up than 'I'm leaving'!

Quiet down here - but then it was last May, too. Most vote after work.

rottenborough said:

Leave 6.4 on BF. FTSE rising

MORI is going to be brutal for LEAVE. One minute left...

TGOHF said:

SPML said:

TGOHF said:

Ladbrokes Politics ‏@LadPolitics 55s55 seconds ago
Ladbrokes:

55% of bets placed so far today are for LEAVE.

That is very good news for leave.

Lots of little bets being swamped by a few big bets.

Can't believe it wont be under 4 at least one more time.

Its not a shareholder vote where each £ counts the same

It is a vote where rich and poor have the same value

TGOHF said:

SPML said:

TGOHF said:

Ladbrokes Politics ‏@LadPolitics 55s55 seconds ago
Ladbrokes:

55% of bets placed so far today are for LEAVE.

That is very good news for leave.

Lots of little bets being swamped by a few big bets.

Can't believe it wont be under 4 at least one more time.

The betting markets can be manipulated for a pittance but they have enormous influence elsewhere.

rottenborough said:

Leave 6.4 on BF. FTSE rising

Tempted but it's very rare for me to gamble.

OT: SL are 12/5 to win the second ODI tomorrow. Seems v generous given last performance, but cricket is not my thing. Anyone else have a view?

https://twitter.com/benatipsosmori/status/745919840121020416

MarqueeMark said:

Anecdote alert. The Good Lady Wifi - whom I always expected would vote Remain - has wobbled more than SeanT on a fairground cakewalk. She did toy with Leave, but then was swung back by Sheila Hancock in last night's debate.

This morning, she woke up and said "Fuck it, let's Leave...."

Oh, and the polling station reported business to be very brisk.

I wonder if there will be more than a few who react like that? If you really are completely undecided, I can see that there might be a certain attraction to taking the more "exciting" option of sticking two metaphorical fingers up at the establishment.

52/48 bit of an anticlimax

Surely the beting is still well out of kilter with the polling.

What the smart money have gone bonkers over a 50/50 margin of error....very brave. Unless they have other polling that shows something else ala Tories at GE.

Jobabob said:

TOPPING said:

FF43 said:

It's by no means in the bag. Vote for what you think is best!

We were running our very own Operation Croissant at breakfast this morning and enjoying a soft and delicious melon. I was having a Proustian Moment about the melons we used to have for starters at posh dinners: unripe, rock hard with a layer of powdered ginger on top. As your spoon hit the hard but slippery surface it would send up a cloud of ginger. You would then sneeze all over it. So I thought, Remain for Better Melons!

There was a time when a glass of tomato juice was considered a starter.

I am old enough to remember a thimble full of concentrated orange juice a stalwart starter on menus.

Thank the Lord for the Europeans and the way they saved our country from gastronomic purgatory.

You must have gone to some crap restaurants.

rottenborough said:

Do I detect Leavers starting to throw the towel in? Seems a little early. Given everything we went through with GE polling, I still think this is too close to call and Labour voters may be about to give us Remainers a shock.

Every time I close my eyes I see the grainy, long-lens footage of Dave stalking towards his emergency Cabinet meeting. Leave are going to win. I'm psychic!

#VoteyMacVoteFace

Very busy at my polling station.

A 4pt Remain lead does not justify the insanely long odds on Leave. Odd indeed.

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/benatipsosmori/status/745919840121020416

Phoney

@MSmithsonPB: All the phone polls show REMAIN leads
All but YouGov of the online polls have LEAVE in the lead

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/benatipsosmori/status/745919840121020416

People think Remain to win makes it easier for folks to vote Leave - vote how you want but let others do the dirty work of staying in...

5% swing in a week from Leave to Remain

TheScreamingEagles said:

David_Evershed said:

Mike said there would be a final IPSOS MORI poll.

Did anyone see the results or have a reference?

Out in the next hour

It would be quite fun if the awaited Ipsos/MORI poll were to show LEAVE as having a 4% lead.

PlatoSaid said:

Re Sunderland

https://www.buzzfeed.com/chrisstokelwalker/faster-than-a-speeding-ballot?utm_term=.bxwezM7Op#.gr7E1DONY

Interesting! For such a big event as this Ref, surely they are going to want to be first again?

I wouldn't put any money on them being later than 1140, or whatever it was - seems a risky proposition to me, if their record is nearer 1045!

BF responds by going out to 6.8

There's a Populus poll out at midday.

Interesting as they are Remain's private pollster.

@MSmithsonPB: Peter Kellner predicts REMAIN by 8.5& https://t.co/0kAUNXyx6T

DanSmith said:

52% Remain, is that it? Still all to play for.

'Still all to play for'......said Captain Smith, as the Titanic sunk beneath the waves. Sorry Leavers, it's all over.

Scott_P said:

@MSmithsonPB: Peter Kellner predicts REMAIN by 8.5& https://t.co/0kAUNXyx6T

Remind me of his GE 2015 prediction at the same stage?

John_M said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Jobabob said:

SouthamObserver said:

FF43 said:

It's by no means in the bag. Vote for what you think is best!

We were running our very own Operation Croissant at breakfast this morning and enjoying a soft and delicious melon. I was having a Proustian Moment about the melons we used to have for starters at posh dinners: unripe, rock hard with a layer of powdered ginger on top. As your spoon hit the hard but slippery surface it would send up a cloud of ginger. You would then sneeze all over it. So I thought, Remain for Better Melons!

I remember a glass of orange juice being a pretty staple starter when I first started eating out in "posh" restaurants in Birmingham in the early 80s. Corn on the cob was another one. Of course, we always chose the prawn cocktail.

Tinned tomato soup passed as restaurant fare in those day.

Thank the Lord for the Europeans, coming over here and stealing our restaurants.

I remember being taken to lunch in the UCL restaurant in the early 1990s. Duck a l'orange was the only thing on the menu. Presumably that was one of the last outposts of post-War British cuisine.

I remember visiting ICI Runcorn in the days when they had three staff eateries (workers/management/execs).

The management were always pleased to see me as that entitled them to dine in the executive 'canteen' (as they called it, presumably to show solidarity with the workers ).

We didn't eat out often in the 70s, but when we did it was always Chinese. The food always had a certain Dayglo quality. British food started improving once Maggie came in .

I also worked at ICI Runcorn and all over the ICI Mond Division as an undergraduate on a scheme for engineers.

At one site there were five tiers of restaurants. I got permission from ICI to do a study of the implications but my University department would not accept it as a final year project.

After University I did not encounter any segregated restaurants until twenty years later when I went to work at the HQ of a Clearing Bank where you were allocated to an eating mess with people of the same grade - which meant seven levels of restaurant.

I ended at the polling station this morning where I began in February - bitterly torn, heart saying one thing, the head saying another, and irritated and annoyed that we're having a vote at this time on this question, and feeling let down by the Prime Minister, who ultimately is responsible for this, his hopeless renegotiation and for the fallout that follows whatever the outcome.

I voted Remain, I know many on here will be dismayed by that, in truth I am a little myself, but the "head" won out. Cool hard economic reasoning (and a degree of self-interest) over emotion. I did at least hover over the boxes rather than my usual confident crossing of a box without a moment's hesitation. I even felt a bit choked.

I just want this all to be over, and let's get on with our lives again...!

Paul Mason @paulmasonnews
I just voted Remain. Now let's renegotiate Lisbon and sweep away neoliberalism with a Europe-wide revolt @ahorapodemos @GlobalDebout

And Leave hits 7...

Theuniondivvie said:

PeterC said:

TGOHF said:

Given the Sun backed Leave - if Remain win will that be their first losing horse in an election since ?

Feb 1974

May 2007

http://tinyurl.com/hp6wnza

Maybe the Scottish Sun has the opposite record? Did they endorse Major in 92?

Scott_P said:

@MSmithsonPB: Peter Kellner predicts REMAIN by 8.5& https://t.co/0kAUNXyx6T

As a Remainer, I guess this must be what a Labour voter felt like at the GE. Rising confidence, better than expected result, progressive alliance in the bag.

I hope I don't experience the same thing they did at 10 in the evening. Actually, is there an exit poll due?

rottenborough said:

Paul Mason @paulmasonnews
I just voted Remain. Now let's renegotiate Lisbon and sweep away neoliberalism with a Europe-wide revolt @ahorapodemos @GlobalDebout

Neo-marxism is almost touching quaint nowadays isn't it.

So ORB have 54/46 Remain (but 51/49 among all voters)
Com Res have 54/46
Ipsos MORI have 52/48
Survation have 51/49
Yougov have 51/49
Opinium have 49/51
TNS have 49/51 (but 46/54 among likely voters).

51.4% Remain to 48.6% Leave on average.

glw said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

What the smart money have gone bonkers over a 50/50 margin of error....very brave. Unless they have other polling that shows something else ala Tories at GE.

It makes no sense. Unless you select an outlier most polls are saying a tie within the margin of error.

But the margin of error works two ways. Therefore even a narrow margin in the polls translates into a reasonably high probability of the side being ahead actually winning, since there's a 50% chance they will actually do better than the poll, a chance that the poll is spot on, plus a further ??% chance that the result falls below the poll but still better than 50/50...

Kellner:

"My apologies if that is not precise enough for you. If you need a more exact forecast, I suggest you toss a coin or ask an astrologer."

I'm going to read way too much into that Populus poll at midday