politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Two massive poll boosts for REMAIN with voting starting in
Comments
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That would mean the storm is coming fro Europe, right?rottenborough said:
No, forecast I saw said v heavy rain and thunderstorms for London, Greater London, parts of south coast, Kent etc. Rest of England ok. Showers in Scotland.HYUFD said:
London is not an island, if it rains in London at some point tomorrow it probably will elsewhere in the UK toorottenborough said:
Not good for us Remainers.Moses_ said:ITV weather for London showing heavy rain, thunder and lightning for tomorrow.
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Oh yes, sorry. Agreed. Correction, but odd time for one.brokenwheel said:
More confused about why now?Mortimer said:
Is it?brokenwheel said:
Odd.Mortimer said:Back to 4.1
I thought moving out to 4.7 was odd - started using money I wasn't planning on wagering. But I proved too cowardly to take full advantage, as ever.0 -
That's with Farage as leader. My contention is that Farage will go and UKIP will be one decent leader away from causing a real crisis to the Tories (and Labour in the north)midwinter said:
UKIP are too divisive, and like it or not there is a stigma attached to voting for them. Many Tories wouldn't touch them with a bargepole.GIN1138 said:
It came very close with Tony... But it endured because there was nothing credible on the right.rottenborough said:
Conservative Party finished? I don't think so.GIN1138 said:
I'd go further and say there's a very good chance the Conservative Party is finished as well. I have a hunch Farage will go, UKIP will elect someone much smarter and the Tories will face an existential crisis across England...Sean_F said:If Yougov is correct, then:-
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.
All it needs is for UKIP to get serious and the Tories are in very, very serious trouble, especially when the EU starts rolling back on Cameron's silly renegotiation as well as coming for more even more sovereignty and money from us, which we all know they will.
I don't know much about UKIP politicians to know if there's someone waiting that can have a much wider appeal than Farage but if there is such a person, especially when Cameron's renegotiation unravels and the EU comes for more money and sovereignty, the Tories will be in very serious trouble...0 -
I have just arrived in That London after a too-long train journey, and have just checked in to a posh hotel, courtesy of the firm, thank you. I got a welcome cookie, hung clothes up, phoned home, and have gone thru the complimentary biscuits, yum (Oat and raisin. Not fruit shrewsbury, but let's not be too fussy), and have Rhod Gilbert on telly. I go into the bathroom and HOLY S**T THERE IS NO BATH. NO BATH! IT'S A WALK-IN SHOWER CUBICLE!
The whole point of "posh hotel that firm is paying for" is to have a bath in hot water that YOU DID NOT PAY TO HEAT. It's the whole experience. It's fun. WHAT IS THE POINT!!!!
Right, that's it, I'm nicking the towels...0 -
Urgh - it would be awful wouldn't it.Sandpit said:
Agree completely it's not our *usual* style - but have you ever seen such a vicious campaign before?Mortimer said:
Not our style.Sandpit said:
I worry that a 51-49 is going to end up in court one way or the other. The campaigns have both been a disgrace to democracy with bogus statistics, baseless scaremongering and abuse of process.Moses_ said:
Whatever the result please at least make it decisive so it is clear cut no grey area or argument. This knife edge stuff is not going to solve anything and if it's just a tiny majority for remain then even worse.Sandpit said:Peter from Putney's tip on the 1% margin is looking like it might be value.
Might as well make money in the event that we end up with the worst possible result!
I have my side, but would much rather it were a decisive 55-45 either way than a very marginal result. Also hoping for high turnout to add legitimacy.
At least, not this Little Englander's style.
Who knows - there are a lot of metropolitan lawyers.
We're expecting 31-32m votes, if it's within 1% I just can't see the losing side accepting the result after all that's happened in the campaigns.
I did ask, as did others, the other day if there was provision for a recount on the night or safe storage of ballot papers in the event of a challenge, but no-one could give a definitive answer.
Markets would have to be suspended in that event, surely?0 -
Get your coat haha.kle4 said:
That would mean the storm is coming fro Europe, right?rottenborough said:
No, forecast I saw said v heavy rain and thunderstorms for London, Greater London, parts of south coast, Kent etc. Rest of England ok. Showers in Scotland.HYUFD said:
London is not an island, if it rains in London at some point tomorrow it probably will elsewhere in the UK toorottenborough said:
Not good for us Remainers.Moses_ said:ITV weather for London showing heavy rain, thunder and lightning for tomorrow.
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Even a 55 45 result did not exactly settle it is ScotlandSandpit said:
I worry that a 51-49 is going to end up in court one way or the other. The campaigns have both been a disgrace to democracy with bogus statistics, baseless scaremongering and abuse of process.Moses_ said:
Whatever the result please at least make it decisive so it is clear cut no grey area or argument. This knife edge stuff is not going to solve anything and if it's just a tiny majority for remain then even worse.Sandpit said:Peter from Putney's tip on the 1% margin is looking like it might be value.
Might as well make money in the event that we end up with the worst possible result!
I have my side, but would much rather it were a decisive 55-45 either way than a very marginal result. Also hoping for high turnout to add legitimacy.0 -
Is there a poll out at 1am?0
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That's fair enough. I would be happy with a sensible Leaver in charge. Barring Gove who isn't an election winner there are none. I suspect Osborne is aware he'd be an electoral liability, so who does that leave?Pauly said:
As a card carrying Tory who voted UKIP in 2015 (the Tories had no chance in Liverpool). I will be voting soley on Europe - the Cameroon pursuit of power for powers sake is pointless. No tackling of the deficit, no BBC reform, broken immigration pledges and no real significant tax reform.midwinter said:
Worked well with IDS.....RobD said:
If we do vote Remain, the membership will probably choose the most eurosceptic of the two they get to vote on.Jobabob said:
In your wildest dreams. More likely they have placed the Tory Party in the Europhile, pro-business, pro-London centre groundPlatoSaid said:
An excellent summarySean_F said:If Yougov is correct, then:-
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.0 -
If Cameron fires Gove and Boris, Graham Brady will have a full postbox the following day. Unless it's 60-40 Remain, Dave will need to be conciliatory towards Leavers in his own party - he barely has a majority and there's more than a few Tory MPs that want to see him walk the plank.Roger said:
Maybe but I doubt it. The Tory Party always rally round their leader. My guess is that Cameron will fire Gove and Boris and other coat flappers and appoint a new cabinet and then patronage will set inGIN1138 said:
Sean's analysis is bang on the money of what happens in the event that REMAIN wins narrowly. In fact it could be a little too conservative in the terms of the sh*t storm that's going to be unleashed on the Conservative Party over the next few months.Roger said:
I think I hear the sound of flapping white coatsSean_F said:If Yougov is correct, then:-
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.0 -
When shall we three meet again?kle4 said:
Well, if remain doesn't win there as much as thought we know what will be blamed then.Moses_ said:ITV weather for London showing heavy rain, thunder and lightning for tomorrow.
In thunder, lightning, or in rain?
When the hurlyburly's done,
When the battle's lost and won.
That will be ere the set of sun.
Night all.0 -
If it's that bad in the southeast it might surpress turnout of those elderly folk who did not post. Won't have much effect in London, half of which is subterranean anyway...0
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'We at SandpitMortimer always favour decisive victories to protracted legal battles where only the lawyers prosper.'Sandpit said:
Agree completely it's not our *usual* style - but have you ever seen such a vicious campaign before?Mortimer said:
Not our style.Sandpit said:
I worry that a 51-49 is going to end up in court one way or the other. The campaigns have both been a disgrace to democracy with bogus statistics, baseless scaremongering and abuse of process.Moses_ said:
Whatever the result please at least make it decisive so it is clear cut no grey area or argument. This knife edge stuff is not going to solve anything and if it's just a tiny majority for remain then even worse.Sandpit said:Peter from Putney's tip on the 1% margin is looking like it might be value.
Might as well make money in the event that we end up with the worst possible result!
I have my side, but would much rather it were a decisive 55-45 either way than a very marginal result. Also hoping for high turnout to add legitimacy.
At least, not this Little Englander's style.
Who knows - there are a lot of metropolitan lawyers.
We're expecting 31-32m votes, if it's within 1% I just can't see the losing side accepting the result after all that's happened in the campaigns.
I did ask, as did others, the other day if there was provision for a recount on the night or safe storage of ballot papers in the event of a challenge, but no-one could give a definitive answer.0 -
Yes. A Remain win won't sate Boris's ambition one jot; he'll just duck out for a few years and work on Plan B. Cameron, Osborne and Gove are mates so will kiss and make up. As for IDS, he'll just shuffle back to the back-benches with his pea-shooter.Roger said:
Maybe but I doubt it. The Tory Party always rally round their leader. My guess is that Cameron will fire Gove and Boris and other coat flappers and appoint a new cabinet and then patronage will set inGIN1138 said:
Sean's analysis is bang on the money of what happens in the event that REMAIN wins narrowly. In fact it could be a little too conservative in the terms of the sh*t storm that's going to be unleashed on the Conservative Party over the next few months.Roger said:
I think I hear the sound of flapping white coatsSean_F said:If Yougov is correct, then:-
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.0 -
There was a great story on the claridges documentary where a unnamed us pop star demanded that their hotel bath room must have a "spa" style bath, so they ripped out the existing bath, fitted a new one & reversed it after they left.viewcode said:I have just arrived in That London after a too-long train journey, and have just checked in to a posh hotel, courtesy of the firm, thank you. I got a welcome cookie, hung clothes up, phoned home, and have gone thru the complimentary biscuits, yum (Oat and raisin. Not fruit shrewsbury, but let's not be too fussy), and have Rhod Gilbert on telly. I go into the bathroom and HOLY S**T THERE IS NO BATH. NO BATH! IT'S A WALK-IN SHOWER CUBICLE!
The whole point of "posh hotel that firm is paying for" is to have a bath in hot water that YOU DID NOT PAY TO HEAT. It's the whole experience. It's fun. WHAT IS THE POINT!!!!
Right, that's it, I'm nicking the towels...
It's one thing changing around the furniture or even the carpet, but ripping a bath out for a few nights!!!0 -
Stephen woolfe.GIN1138 said:
That's with Farage as leader. My contention is that Farage will go and UKIP will be one decent leader away from causing a real crisis to the Tories (and Labour in the north)midwinter said:
UKIP are too divisive, and like it or not there is a stigma attached to voting for them. Many Tories wouldn't touch them with a bargepole.GIN1138 said:
It came very close with Tony... But it endured because there was nothing credible on the right.rottenborough said:
Conservative Party finished? I don't think so.GIN1138 said:
I'd go further and say there's a very good chance the Conservative Party is finished as well. I have a hunch Farage will go, UKIP will elect someone much smarter and the Tories will face an existential crisis across England...Sean_F said:If Yougov is correct, then:-
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.
All it needs is for UKIP to get serious and the Tories are in very, very serious trouble, especially when the EU starts rolling back on Cameron's silly renegotiation as well as coming for more even more sovereignty and money from us, which we all know they will.
I don't know much about UKIP politicians to know if there's someone waiting that can have a much wider appeal than Farage but if there is such a person, especially when Cameron's renegotiation unravels and the EU comes for more money and sovereignty, the Tories will be in very serious trouble...0 -
Met Office Warnings Issued For:Greater London
Yellow early warning of rain
From:1800 on Wed 22 June
To:0600 on Fri 24 June
Updated 22 June at 10:16 Active
Although some areas will miss them, potentially intense thundery downpours seem likely to affect parts of the warning area from Wednesday late afternoon or early evening onwards into the early hours of Thursday or Thursday morning. Further scattered thunderstorms are then likely to break out from Thursday afternoon onwards into Thursday night.
Please be aware of possible disruption to travel and localised flooding as well as frequent lightning.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/26437430 -
I used to say I liked Sylvester McCoy. Then I saw the repeats on the Horror Channel. And now I don'tPlatoSaid said:
It could be worse. Labour has Sylvester McCoy.viewcode said:
Yes. Problem is, it's currently in the Colin Baker stage...MyBurningEars said:The Tory party are really the experts at regenerating in Whovian style.
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2014 European elections were UKIP 27% Labour 24% Tories 23%GIN1138 said:
That's with Farage as leader. My contention is that Farage will go and UKIP will be one decent leader away from causing a real crisis to the Tories (and Labour in the north)midwinter said:
UKIP are too divisive, and like it or not there is a stigma attached to voting for them. Many Tories wouldn't touch them with a bargepole.GIN1138 said:
It came very close with Tony... But it endured because there was nothing credible on the right.rottenborough said:
Conservative Party finished? I don't think so.GIN1138 said:
I'd go further and say there's a very good chance the Conservative Party is finished as well. I have a hunch Farage will go, UKIP will elect someone much smarter and the Tories will face an existential crisis across England...Sean_F said:If Yougov is correct, then:-
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.
All it needs is for UKIP to get serious and the Tories are in very, very serious trouble, especially when the EU starts rolling back on Cameron's silly renegotiation as well as coming for more even more sovereignty and money from us, which we all know they will.
I don't know much about UKIP politicians to know if there's someone waiting that can have a much wider appeal than Farage but if there is such a person, especially when Cameron's renegotiation unravels and the EU comes for more money and sovereignty, the Tories will be in very serious trouble...0 -
There are a lot of ifs and maybes in that scenario. Personally I doubt the Tories would have come close to getting a majority with a right wing leader, and previous elections prove the point. However if Cameron isn't ideologically pure enough for the membership they can put another whack job loser up and see what happens. It might please the grass roots but it won't appeal to voters and that's what matters ultimately.GIN1138 said:
That's with Farage as leader. My contention is that Farage will go and UKIP will be one decent leader away from causing a real crisis to the Tories (and Labour in the north)midwinter said:
UKIP are too divisive, and like it or not there is a stigma attached to voting for them. Many Tories wouldn't touch them with a bargepole.GIN1138 said:
It came very close with Tony... But it endured because there was nothing credible on the right.rottenborough said:
Conservative Party finished? I don't think so.GIN1138 said:
I'd go further and say there's a very good chance the Conservative Party is finished as well. I have a hunch Farage will go, UKIP will elect someone much smarter and the Tories will face an existential crisis across England...Sean_F said:If Yougov is correct, then:-
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.
All it needs is for UKIP to get serious and the Tories are in very, very serious trouble, especially when the EU starts rolling back on Cameron's silly renegotiation as well as coming for more even more sovereignty and money from us, which we all know they will.
I don't know much about UKIP politicians to know if there's someone waiting that can have a much wider appeal than Farage but if there is such a person, especially when Cameron's renegotiation unravels and the EU comes for more money and sovereignty, the Tories will be in very serious trouble...0 -
Oh yeah, it would be pretty horrible for as long as it took to sort out the result. Difficult to suspend markets these days as trading still happens off-market instead, but the BoE could well intervene and a run on the pound couldn't be ruled out. Banks could well close early on Friday if it looks like there's going to be a problem.Mortimer said:
Urgh - it would be awful wouldn't it.Sandpit said:
Agree completely it's not our *usual* style - but have you ever seen such a vicious campaign before?Mortimer said:
Not our style.Sandpit said:
I worry that a 51-49 is going to end up in court one way or the other. The campaigns have both been a disgrace to democracy with bogus statistics, baseless scaremongering and abuse of process.Moses_ said:
Whatever the result please at least make it decisive so it is clear cut no grey area or argument. This knife edge stuff is not going to solve anything and if it's just a tiny majority for remain then even worse.Sandpit said:Peter from Putney's tip on the 1% margin is looking like it might be value.
Might as well make money in the event that we end up with the worst possible result!
I have my side, but would much rather it were a decisive 55-45 either way than a very marginal result. Also hoping for high turnout to add legitimacy.
At least, not this Little Englander's style.
Who knows - there are a lot of metropolitan lawyers.
We're expecting 31-32m votes, if it's within 1% I just can't see the losing side accepting the result after all that's happened in the campaigns.
I did ask, as did others, the other day if there was provision for a recount on the night or safe storage of ballot papers in the event of a challenge, but no-one could give a definitive answer.
Markets would have to be suspended in that event, surely?0 -
Hammond is my bet, a eurosceptic Remainer, goodnightmidwinter said:
That's fair enough. I would be happy with a sensible Leaver in charge. Barring Gove who isn't an election winner there are none. I suspect Osborne is aware he'd be an electoral liability, so who does that leave?Pauly said:
As a card carrying Tory who voted UKIP in 2015 (the Tories had no chance in Liverpool). I will be voting soley on Europe - the Cameroon pursuit of power for powers sake is pointless. No tackling of the deficit, no BBC reform, broken immigration pledges and no real significant tax reform.midwinter said:
Worked well with IDS.....RobD said:
If we do vote Remain, the membership will probably choose the most eurosceptic of the two they get to vote on.Jobabob said:
In your wildest dreams. More likely they have placed the Tory Party in the Europhile, pro-business, pro-London centre groundPlatoSaid said:
An excellent summarySean_F said:If Yougov is correct, then:-
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.0 -
That's right,a pea-shooter with many angry backbenchers in a small majority governmentStark_Dawning said:
Yes. A Remain win won't sate Boris's ambition one jot; he'll just duck out for a few years and work on Plan B. Cameron, Osborne and Gove are mates so will kiss and make up. As for IDS, he'll just shuffle back to the back-benches with his pea-shooter.Roger said:
Maybe but I doubt it. The Tory Party always rally round their leader. My guess is that Cameron will fire Gove and Boris and other coat flappers and appoint a new cabinet and then patronage will set inGIN1138 said:
Sean's analysis is bang on the money of what happens in the event that REMAIN wins narrowly. In fact it could be a little too conservative in the terms of the sh*t storm that's going to be unleashed on the Conservative Party over the next few months.Roger said:
I think I hear the sound of flapping white coatsSean_F said:If Yougov is correct, then:-
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.0 -
I always thought it was the pop stars that used to rip hotel stuff out?FrancisUrquhart said:
There was a great story on the claridges documentary where a unnamed us pop star demanded that their hotel bath room must have a "spa" style bath, so they ripped out the existing bath, fitted a new one & reversed it after they left.viewcode said:I have just arrived in That London after a too-long train journey, and have just checked in to a posh hotel, courtesy of the firm, thank you. I got a welcome cookie, hung clothes up, phoned home, and have gone thru the complimentary biscuits, yum (Oat and raisin. Not fruit shrewsbury, but let's not be too fussy), and have Rhod Gilbert on telly. I go into the bathroom and HOLY S**T THERE IS NO BATH. NO BATH! IT'S A WALK-IN SHOWER CUBICLE!
The whole point of "posh hotel that firm is paying for" is to have a bath in hot water that YOU DID NOT PAY TO HEAT. It's the whole experience. It's fun. WHAT IS THE POINT!!!!
Right, that's it, I'm nicking the towels...
It's one thing changing around the furniture or even the carpet, but ripping a bath out for a few nights!!!0 -
They seem to have done that with mine. Honestly, I'm not getting somebody else's verrucas. Verrucae. Whatever.FrancisUrquhart said:There was a great story on the claridges documentary where a unnamed us pop star demanded that their hotel bath room must have a "spa" style bath, so they ripped out the existing bath, fitted a new one & reversed it after they left.
It's one thing changing around the furniture or even the carpet, but ripping a bath out for a few nights!!!0 -
Quite...guess what gave them that stigma......the right of the party......guess who removed it....Cameron. But they never learn.KentRising said:
Sounds like the Tories 1994-2007 (and, in some circles, all of the time).midwinter said:
there is a stigma attached to voting for them.GIN1138 said:
It came very close with Tony... But it endured because there was nothing credible on the right.rottenborough said:
Conservative Party finished? I don't think so.GIN1138 said:
I'd go further and say there's a very good chance the Conservative Party is finished as well. I have a hunch Farage will go, UKIP will elect someone much smarter and the Tories will face an existential crisis across England...Sean_F said:If Yougov is correct, then:-
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.
All it needs is for UKIP to get serious and the Tories are in very, very serious trouble, especially when the EU starts rolling back on Cameron's silly renegotiation as well as coming for more even more sovereignty and money from us, which we all know they will.
Stigmas can be removed.0 -
I know....what is the world coming to!!!Moses_ said:
I always thought it was the pop stars that used to rip hotel stuff out?FrancisUrquhart said:
There was a great story on the claridges documentary where a unnamed us pop star demanded that their hotel bath room must have a "spa" style bath, so they ripped out the existing bath, fitted a new one & reversed it after they left.viewcode said:I have just arrived in That London after a too-long train journey, and have just checked in to a posh hotel, courtesy of the firm, thank you. I got a welcome cookie, hung clothes up, phoned home, and have gone thru the complimentary biscuits, yum (Oat and raisin. Not fruit shrewsbury, but let's not be too fussy), and have Rhod Gilbert on telly. I go into the bathroom and HOLY S**T THERE IS NO BATH. NO BATH! IT'S A WALK-IN SHOWER CUBICLE!
The whole point of "posh hotel that firm is paying for" is to have a bath in hot water that YOU DID NOT PAY TO HEAT. It's the whole experience. It's fun. WHAT IS THE POINT!!!!
Right, that's it, I'm nicking the towels...
It's one thing changing around the furniture or even the carpet, but ripping a bath out for a few nights!!!0 -
2016-2020 with a loser would be better than 10 years of tweak-interventionist Cameron achieving changes but nothing irreversible or substantial.midwinter said:
There are a lot of ifs and maybes in that scenario. Personally I doubt the Tories would have come close to getting a majority with a right wing leader, and previous elections prove the point. However if Cameron isn't ideologically pure enough for the membership they can put another whack job loser up and see what happens. It might please the grass roots but it won't appeal to voters and that's what matters ultimately.GIN1138 said:
That's with Farage as leader. My contention is that Farage will go and UKIP will be one decent leader away from causing a real crisis to the Tories (and Labour in the north)midwinter said:
UKIP are too divisive, and like it or not there is a stigma attached to voting for them. Many Tories wouldn't touch them with a bargepole.GIN1138 said:
It came very close with Tony... But it endured because there was nothing credible on the right.rottenborough said:
Conservative Party finished? I don't think so.GIN1138 said:
I'd go further and say there's a very good chance the Conservative Party is finished as well. I have a hunch Farage will go, UKIP will elect someone much smarter and the Tories will face an existential crisis across England...Sean_F said:If Yougov is correct, then:-
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.
All it needs is for UKIP to get serious and the Tories are in very, very serious trouble, especially when the EU starts rolling back on Cameron's silly renegotiation as well as coming for more even more sovereignty and money from us, which we all know they will.
I don't know much about UKIP politicians to know if there's someone waiting that can have a much wider appeal than Farage but if there is such a person, especially when Cameron's renegotiation unravels and the EU comes for more money and sovereignty, the Tories will be in very serious trouble...
If people knew what Thatcher was going to do, she probably wouldn't have won. This time the FTPA means it won't be a problem.0 -
'Hillary Clinton wants to be President. But she doesn't have the temperament, or, as Bernie Sanders' said, the judgement, to be president.kle4 said:
That's actually quite good. Emphasises Clinton is In this for herself, but trump isn't (not saying that's true, but it's a good line and approach)RodCrosby said:Trump's neat pivot on Clinton's inept "I'm with her" slogan...
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/745733029289615361
She believes she is entitled to the office.
Her campaign slogan is “I’m with her.”
You know what my response to that is? I’m with you: the American people.
She thinks it’s all about her.
I know it’s all about you – I know it’s all about making America Great Again for All Americans.
Our country lost its way when we stopped putting the American people first.'
Full text of today's speech, with citations. His best so far, imho...
https://www.facebook.com/DonaldTrump/posts/10157205624320725
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The substantive issue of independence is still live in Scotland thanks to the SNP, but at least the result of the referendum was accepted by all. If the result of this referendum isn't accepted by the losing side then we have carnage on Friday.HYUFD said:
Even a 55 45 result did not exactly settle it is ScotlandSandpit said:
I worry that a 51-49 is going to end up in court one way or the other. The campaigns have both been a disgrace to democracy with bogus statistics, baseless scaremongering and abuse of process.Moses_ said:
Whatever the result please at least make it decisive so it is clear cut no grey area or argument. This knife edge stuff is not going to solve anything and if it's just a tiny majority for remain then even worse.Sandpit said:Peter from Putney's tip on the 1% margin is looking like it might be value.
Might as well make money in the event that we end up with the worst possible result!
I have my side, but would much rather it were a decisive 55-45 either way than a very marginal result. Also hoping for high turnout to add legitimacy.0 -
That's a very good speech from Trump.RodCrosby said:
'Hillary Clinton wants to be President. But she doesn't have the temperament, or, as Bernie Sanders' said, the judgement, to be president.kle4 said:
That's actually quite good. Emphasises Clinton is In this for herself, but trump isn't (not saying that's true, but it's a good line and approach)RodCrosby said:Trump's neat pivot on Clinton's inept "I'm with her" slogan...
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/745733029289615361
She believes she is entitled to the office.
Her campaign slogan is “I’m with her.”
You know what my response to that is? I’m with you: the American people.
She thinks it’s all about her.
I know it’s all about you – I know it’s all about making America Great Again for All Americans.
Our country lost its way when we stopped putting the American people first.'
Full text of today's speech, with citations
https://www.facebook.com/DonaldTrump/posts/101572056243207250 -
Well, I'm off.
Will be interesting to see what MORI has to say in the morning but the only poll that counts is still ahead.
Remember, when you walk into that polling station:
Take back control. Vote Leave.
Happy voting.
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"Germany's Bild, which wants the UK to stay in the EU, is betting £10k on Remain to win the referendum. It says it will spend the winnings on free drinks in London."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/22/eu-referendum-what-the-world-is-saying---bild-betting-on-remain/0 -
Pauly said:
2016-2020 with a loser would be better than 10 years of tweak-interventionist Cameron achieving changes but nothing irreversible or substantial.midwinter said:
There are a lot of ifs and maybes in that scenario. Personally I doubt the Tories would have come close to getting a majority with a right wing leader, and previous elections prove the point. However if Cameron isn't ideologically pure enough for the membership they can put another whack job loser up and see what happens. It might please the grass roots but it won't appeal to voters and that's what matters ultimately.GIN1138 said:
That's with Farage as leader. My contention is that Farage will go and UKIP will be one decent leader away from causing a real crisis to the Tories (and Labour in the north)midwinter said:
UKIP are too divisive, and like it or not there is a stigma attached to voting for them. Many Tories wouldn't touch them with a bargepole.GIN1138 said:
It came very close with Tony... But it endured because there was nothing credible on the right.rottenborough said:
Conservative Party finished? I don't think so.GIN1138 said:
I'd go further and say there's a very good chance the Conservative Party is finished as well. I have a hunch Farage will go, UKIP will elect someone much smarter and the Tories will face an existential crisis across England...Sean_F said:If Yougov is correct, then:-
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.
All it needs is for UKIP to get serious and the Tories are in very, very serious trouble, especially when the EU starts rolling back on Cameron's silly renegotiation as well as coming for more even more sovereignty and money from us, which we all know they will.
I don't know much about UKIP politicians to know if there's someone waiting that can have a much wider appeal than Farage but if there is such a person, especially when Cameron's renegotiation unravels and the EU comes for more money and sovereignty, the Tories will be in very serious trouble...
If people knew what Thatcher was going to do, she probably wouldn't have won. This time the FTPA means it won't be a problem.</blockquote
Without Cameron there wouldn't be a Tory Government or referendum.0 -
I still say he could have won 60-40 if he'd had an honest renegotiation followed by a polite campaign. He's only himself to blame for the tone of debate over the last four months.FrancisUrquhart said:
If it's really close either way if the shit hits the fan in the next couple of years it will open all this up again. Cameron hoped to win 60:40 and the issue be dead for a generation.Sandpit said:
I worry that a 51-49 is going to end up in court one way or the other. The campaigns have both been a disgrace to democracy with bogus statistics, baseless scaremongering and abuse of process.Moses_ said:
Whatever the result please at least make it decisive so it is clear cut no grey area or argument. This knife edge stuff is not going to solve anything and if it's just a tiny majority for remain then even worse.Sandpit said:Peter from Putney's tip on the 1% margin is looking like it might be value.
Might as well make money in the event that we end up with the worst possible result!
I have my side, but would much rather it were a decisive 55-45 either way than a very marginal result. Also hoping for high turnout to add legitimacy.0 -
Might buy a few Mohitos in Metropolitan London.AndyJS said:"Germany's Bild, which wants the UK to stay in the EU, is betting £10k on Remain to win the referendum. It says it will spend the winnings on free drinks in London."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/22/eu-referendum-what-the-world-is-saying---bild-betting-on-remain/
Or, hilariously, they might be 10k down the drain. Heres hoping - goodnight folks.
Tomorrow is independence day.0 -
At 1/4 that's only £2500. Barely a single round in a large bar in London.AndyJS said:"Germany's Bild, which wants the UK to stay in the EU, is betting £10k on Remain to win the referendum. It says it will spend the winnings on free drinks in London."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/22/eu-referendum-what-the-world-is-saying---bild-betting-on-remain/0 -
Clacks will declare around 1.30am and its vote will pretty much be spot on for the entire Scottish vote.Pong said:I expect we'll see some of the scottish seats declare quite early.
Turnout, IMO, could be quite a bit lower than in E/W.
Fewer votes to count. Quicker declarations.0 -
I think it's more like the RNC would like to fire Trump, but they are stuck with himHYUFD said:
No as he has 390 more delegates than needed and 1000 more than Cruz, his closest rivalrottenborough said:0 -
You can tell how crap the deal was...it was basically never mentioned for the whole campaign. I think leave made a mistake not pointing this out & evidence that eu doesn't change or reform and that a vote for remain is not a vote for the status quo.Sandpit said:
I still say he could have won 60-40 if he'd had an honest renegotiation followed by a polite campaign. He's only himself to blame for the tone of debate over the last four months.FrancisUrquhart said:
If it's really close either way if the shit hits the fan in the next couple of years it will open all this up again. Cameron hoped to win 60:40 and the issue be dead for a generation.Sandpit said:
I worry that a 51-49 is going to end up in court one way or the other. The campaigns have both been a disgrace to democracy with bogus statistics, baseless scaremongering and abuse of process.Moses_ said:
Whatever the result please at least make it decisive so it is clear cut no grey area or argument. This knife edge stuff is not going to solve anything and if it's just a tiny majority for remain then even worse.Sandpit said:Peter from Putney's tip on the 1% margin is looking like it might be value.
Might as well make money in the event that we end up with the worst possible result!
I have my side, but would much rather it were a decisive 55-45 either way than a very marginal result. Also hoping for high turnout to add legitimacy.0 -
'Trump looked different Wednesday morning as he stood behind a lectern in his Soho hotel; he looked like a candidate serious about trying to win in November.'Jobabob said:
I think it's more like the RNC would like to fire Trump, but they are stuck with himHYUFD said:
No as he has 390 more delegates than needed and 1000 more than Cruz, his closest rivalrottenborough said:
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/donald-trump-attacks-hillary-clinton-224679#ixzz4CM6nFTjc0 -
My prediction for turnout: 66%, same as the general election.0
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What I remember from on here is days of people saying it had nothing at all to do with Brexit no siree. That it was suspicious that one witness heard "Britain First" . Did not people find it strange that it happened at this point in the campaign. That he was a madman, deranged etc not at all influenced by campaign. No one said that maybe some of the language was going too far or making obvious connotations, dog whistling all over the place and pretending to act all shocked when people called them on it.Sean_F said:
When you have one group of Conservatives on this site accusing Vote Leave of being partially responsible for the murder of Jo Cox, I'd say that's a division that won't be reconciled easily.Richard_Nabavi said:
The huge flaw in that analysis is that it assumes that the EU is the primary issue for Conservative voters and members, and that they divide neatly into two strongly-opposed groups on the subject. Both assumptions are wrong in my experience; most Conservatives are mildly unhappy with the EU. When they lean towards Brexit, they don't necessarily see it as without risk and downside, and when they lean in the other direction, they recognise the faults in the EU and are frustrated by them.Sean_F said:If Yougov is correct, then:-
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.
In practice, most Conservatives will accept whatever the result of tomorrow turns out to be.
(You've also glossed over the fact that a lot of traditionally 'left-wing' voters are voting Leave).
But you are right these wounds won't heal easily. What riles me the most is after years of the brexiters calling Cameron and Co traitors and quislings and opposing everything they said and did, then to start to crying about of a couple of insults clutching their skirts and getting the vapours was so hypocritical it made me pretty darn cross.
If remain lose it'd serve Boris and Co right if Osborne and Cameron did resign immediately and let the Brexiters own the aftermath. I'm sure they could deploy their superior economic plan and negotiate a smooth EU exit plan and superior trade agreement with barely a ripple in the markets and no need for any emergency budgets.
Oh no wait Gove and Boris want them to stay on, for stability sake. Or the fact they don't have a f--ing clue what they'd do. Maybe Gove feels he could wing it after we don't need to listen to experts.
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It was fine until expansion to the East and then the eurozone crisis causing mass unemployment in Southern Europe.Disraeli said:Most of you will probably find this an odd analogy, but I always think of immigration as being rather like medication.
The correct amount of medication is beneficial to the patient. Too little, or too much can be harmful (e.g. digitalis).
I don't think that when the founding fathers put "Freedom of Movement" into the DNA of the EU that they ever imagined that there would be migration on a scale large enough to cause concern to host communities.
If Leave win tomorrow it will be ironic that Britain was always the biggest cheerleader pushing for expansion into the East and its this expansion and the migration wave into Britain as a result these last 12 years that will have caused Brexit.0 -
I see that the 21st centuries tribute act to Edward Heath (David Davis) had an interview in Prospect in which he feels he could run again for Tory leadership!!!
You know I'm actually mildly Eurosceptic and in reality so is Cameron and most of the Tory Party. But for the true believers there is no position that is pure enough, It's an ever moving feast where one years right on position is next years old hat and the following years dangerous reactionary,
The problem is that every problem in Britain is now due to Europe, there is not one thing that would not be better without Europe or they are stopping us doing something. It's a stupid monomania, well they are in for a shock if we do leave. Our schools will still be crap, we won't train young workers and still rely on immigrants . We still won't spend enough on new roads or rail and too much on benefits. Most our problems will still be there and we'll have added some new ones by making enemies with Europe.0 -
Er... No. I suspect it will be much higher.AndyJS said:My prediction for turnout: 66%, same as the general election.
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Yeah good point - Clackmannanshire was very close to the indyref resultLowlander said:
Clacks will declare around 1.30am and its vote will pretty much be spot on for the entire Scottish vote.Pong said:I expect we'll see some of the scottish seats declare quite early.
Turnout, IMO, could be quite a bit lower than in E/W.
Fewer votes to count. Quicker declarations.0 -
The political system in Britain is broken and we need Electoral Reform, as in Proportional Representation. Labour and the Tories are not fit for purpose anymore.
This is a good article on the subject:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/02/labour-party-may-divide-before-conquer0 -
Indeed, 54/46 compared to the final total of 55/45. It was also a must win for Indy to pull it off. It was pretty disappointing to see the entire vote over so early.Pong said:
Yeah good point - Clackmannanshire was very close to the indyref resultLowlander said:
Clacks will declare around 1.30am and its vote will pretty much be spot on for the entire Scottish vote.Pong said:I expect we'll see some of the scottish seats declare quite early.
Turnout, IMO, could be quite a bit lower than in E/W.
Fewer votes to count. Quicker declarations.
Clacks is Scotland. Half the population is in one big town, the rest of the county is split pretty much evenly (on a population basis) between the wealthy in Dollar and Muckhart, the middle in Alva and Tillicoultry and the hovel that is Menstrie, while the various villages around the county tend to represent the agricultural and mining split of Scotland's rural parts while a small industrial base exists in Alloa.0 -
Take your point about the renegotiating but do you honestly believe the Euroloons were ever going to give him a break. Seriously. The writing was on the wall when Duncan Smith discovered a hitherto unseen social conscience, miraculously at the start of the campaign.Sandpit said:
I still say he could have won 60-40 if he'd had an honest renegotiation followed by a polite campaign. He's only himself to blame for the tone of debate over the last four months.FrancisUrquhart said:
If it's really close either way if the shit hits the fan in the next couple of years it will open all this up again. Cameron hoped to win 60:40 and the issue be dead for a generation.Sandpit said:
I worry that a 51-49 is going to end up in court one way or the other. The campaigns have both been a disgrace to democracy with bogus statistics, baseless scaremongering and abuse of process.Moses_ said:
Whatever the result please at least make it decisive so it is clear cut no grey area or argument. This knife edge stuff is not going to solve anything and if it's just a tiny majority for remain then even worse.Sandpit said:Peter from Putney's tip on the 1% margin is looking like it might be value.
Might as well make money in the event that we end up with the worst possible result!
I have my side, but would much rather it were a decisive 55-45 either way than a very marginal result. Also hoping for high turnout to add legitimacy.0 -
Labour lost one of its arms in 2015, with no chance of it growing back, starfish-like.pinkrose said:The political system in Britain is broken and we need Electoral Reform, as in Proportional Representation. Labour and the Tories are not fit for purpose anymore.
This is a good article on the subject:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/02/labour-party-may-divide-before-conquer
It is now terminally crippled under FPTP and, unless the Tories literally implode, has no prospect of winning a majority in the decade or more ahead, a fortiori under Corbyn.
Re-alignment, combined with PR, would seem its only chance of exercising any kind of power for the foreseeable future.0 -
AgreeRodCrosby said:
Labour lost one of its arms in 2015, with no chance of it growing back, starfish-like.pinkrose said:The political system in Britain is broken and we need Electoral Reform, as in Proportional Representation. Labour and the Tories are not fit for purpose anymore.
This is a good article on the subject:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/02/labour-party-may-divide-before-conquer
It is now terminally crippled under FPTP and, unless the Tories literally implode, has no prospect of winning a majority in the decade or more ahead, a fortiori under Corbyn.
Re-alignment, combined with PR, would seem its only chance of exercising any kind of power for the foreseeable future.
But its not just about Labour, its bigger than that. England is completely disenfranchised under FPTP, the range and splintering of political opinion in England is being shut out. The fact that the SNP have got 50 odd MP's whereas UKIP has one and the Greens have one is untenable.0 -
Surge in travellers buying holiday money before EU vote
http://gu.com/p/4meh7?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard < More evidence of consumer jitters.0 -
Happy Independence Day to all PBers!0
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the two postal ballot turnout so far have been 80% which is down on GE last year of 86%.BenedictWhite said:
Er... No. I suspect it will be much higher.AndyJS said:My prediction for turnout: 66%, same as the general election.
Turnout will suprise on the low side. Also the 10/10 certainty to vote suggests GE level turnout.0 -
We'll find out soon enough!BenedictWhite said:
Er... No. I suspect it will be much higher.AndyJS said:My prediction for turnout: 66%, same as the general election.
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Anybody else having sleeping issues due to nerves? I'm far too emotionally attached to this...
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Don't want to repeat myself but you can get almost 10/1 with Betfair on turnout being 60-65%.nunu said:
the two postal ballot turnout so far have been 80% which is down on GE last year of 86%.BenedictWhite said:
Er... No. I suspect it will be much higher.AndyJS said:My prediction for turnout: 66%, same as the general election.
Turnout will suprise on the low side. Also the 10/10 certainty to vote suggests GE level turnout.0 -
Ukip or variant will undoubtedly flourish post narrow remain win and for very good reason. This has not been a fair go referendum. What would the polls be implying if it had?
And they talk about lying down with dogs.
BETTING
Have looked for spreads on 2020 GE seats but found none. A buy at sub 10 will pay off, imho. Purely my sentiment of course0 -
Today is the Victory day holiday in Estonia and the flags will stay up all night into tomorrow's St. John's day holiday. The Estonians are very concerned not to lose a good friend in the EU, and a Remain victory on this scale would be greeted with a sigh of relief.
Then the question becomes what next for British politics?
Corbyn has been next to useless, Farage has shown his rotten colours, Cameron is going and his party is split from top to bottom, the Lib Dems had an OK campaign, but are still years away from any recovery... So, a realignment but of what and for what?0 -
If I put a cross on the right box but write a message on the ballot paper what happens0
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You sound unhinged.SeanT said:I confess I am already feeling a slight lightening of spirit.
So we lost. So it goes The fight will be resumed in different ways, after the summer, and we can make the REMAINERS suffer, for ever, for their treachery and cowardice. Because they are traitors and cowards. That is what they ARE.
Meantime, let's get back to work, football, cricket, having sex, and sleep.0 -
This is my thoughts. I think we'll be back in coalition territory for GE 2020 (or before). And as the Lib Dems have 'previous' as a trusted coalition partner, I think they might benefit from having played the straightest bat during the election (or perhaps that's wishful thinking on my behalf). Lib-Lab pact to punish the Conservatives for the pain of the EURef?AlastairMeeks said:
That, and the question of how anyone is going to construct any kind of Parliamentary majority in the next few years.kle4 said:
Some losers are not going to be reconciled to defeat, particularly if it were close. But they will be defeatable, since other losers (like me if Remain win) will want the matter put to bed for a long time.AlastairMeeks said:
I don't think that's true. There's Little England and there are the Metropolitans. Tomorrow decides who's in charge for the next few years. The losers are not going to be reconciled to defeat - Leavers because they are obsessed on the subject of the EU and Remainers because they think Leave's campaign has been despicable. Neither side looks remotely inclined to accept olive branches.bookseller said:
Amen to that. We're British after all.BenedictWhite said:
We have no idea what is about to happen.TheScreamingEagles said:Another reason for Leave to be confident.
The postal votes started being returned during peak Leave
However I do hope that we can be friends afterwards and make what ever the electorate give us work.
The chances of a reconstruction look minimal.
It's only really going to be a problem for people like the Tory party, where the division is much more urgent.0
