Remain was always favourite but you get the feeling the general public appetite for the EU is about as high as a 2p coin is deep.
By the way, Wales, we'll see you in Paris this weekend and we are likely to win.
It's a bit silly reading so much into these last two polls just because they were the last two to be published. We could have had Opinium and TNS tonight and YouGov and ComRes earlier.
Well said.
Incidentally I haven't made a final decision how to vote yet. Everyone I know is voting Remain which is difficult to ignore completely.
Think for yourself, man!
Being in a minority of one doesn't matter, if you're proved to be right.
I haven't got a clue what the result will be tomorrow. Then again neither does Dave - and that will leave him curled up overnight clutching his teddy as he has repeated nightmares about his "legacy".
Politics. Always good times
Politics is brutal, for me the person I felt most sorry on election night was Ed Miliband, he woke up on May 7th thinking he might be Chancellor of the Exchequer shortly. Next morning he became unemployed.
I haven't got a clue what the result will be tomorrow. Then again neither does Dave - and that will leave him curled up overnight clutching his teddy as he has repeated nightmares about his "legacy".
Politics. Always good times
Politics is brutal, for me the person I felt most sorry on election night was Ed Miliband, he woke up on May 7th thinking he might be Chancellor of the Exchequer shortly. Next morning he became unemployed.
I haven't got a clue what the result will be tomorrow. Then again neither does Dave - and that will leave him curled up overnight clutching his teddy as he has repeated nightmares about his "legacy".
Politics. Always good times
Politics is brutal, for me the person I felt most sorry on election night was Ed Miliband, he woke up on May 7th thinking he might be Chancellor of the Exchequer shortly. Next morning he became unemployed.
Exhausting day doing the GOTV for Leave. Has to be said (and I don't do pointless spin on this knowledgeable site) that it has been the most positive day so far - no sign of late swingback to Remain in mid Kent. I'm not convinced the polls have changed much - YouGov is within their recent MoE. Obviously if Mori with their last minute fieldwork show a significant move to Remain that could spell trouble for Leave but we shall see.
Lot of text on that Bild front page, what's the gist? I see 'Prinz Charles' Ohren(google says german for ears?) and gerbustag dur Queen (surely they have a word for Queen - do they use Queen tm to refer to specifically to Her Majesty - The Queen, not just a queen?
Yes. The official German dictionary has introduced due Queen to refer to our current Queen along side the generic German word.
Lot of text on that Bild front page, what's the gist? I see 'Prinz Charles' Ohren(google says german for ears?) and gerbustag dur Queen (surely they have a word for Queen - do they use Queen tm to refer to specifically to Her Majesty - The Queen, not just a queen?
No more jokes about Prince Charles' ears. They won't use suncream in solidarity with our sunburn. They won't use a goalkeeper in the next penalty shoot-out with us to make it more interesting. etc.
Wonder what the consequences would be of a sub 1% margin of victory. If it was really, really close there round have to be dome kind of compromise/fudge
I would make quite a good bit of money at Ladbrokes' expense, but I'm no longer very hopeful, in fact I'm not hopeful at all.
He had a good point, well made. The EU has cemented parliamentary democracy across most of the continent.
It would be welcome if it introduced it for itself, which would improve accountability, relevance and mandate.
The Commission president is now subject to a vote by the Parliament, making the EU a more effective parliamentary democracy than, say, the United States. This process is as democratic as it can be without undermining national sovereignty or engaging in alienating fictions like pan-European political parties. However, the nature of the EU is a mix of democracy, intergovernmental sovereignty and liberalism, without any one element being fully superior to the other. To increase democracy (good) you would have to dial down sovereignty (bad).
There isn't a more democratic international institution is there? (None that I can think of.)
Democracy confers legitimacy and almost all of us quite like keeping political legitimacy close to home. For now.
I confess I am already feeling a slight lightening of spirit.
So we lost. So it goes The fight will be resumed in different ways, after the summer, and we can make the REMAINERS suffer, for ever, for their treachery and cowardice. Because they are traitors and cowards. That is what they ARE.
Meantime, let's get back to work, football, cricket, having sex, and sleep.
I think there is a small chance UKIP get a poll lead or two by the conference season if this is the result, Leave voting Tories will not have anything to lose with Corbyn still in charge of Labour by registering a Kipper protest and will want to give a protest against Cameron and Osborne, while wwc Labour voters will also want to make sure their feeelings on immigration do not get lost in the midst of a Remain win
Oh, come on, this as close as ComRes have had it bar last week.
Eve of poll:- Survation 1% Remain, Com Res 6% Remain, Yougov 2% Remain, Opinium 1% Leave, TNS 2% Leave or 7% Leave. Either a 1% average lead for Remain or a Tie.
Quite. UNless the phone polls really are that much better, it's a wide spread, and on a even field I say Leave do it.
Leave can do it, and differential turnout is our best hope.
But.
Remain is favourite right now. Maybe not 5-1, but still favourite.
As a leaver I first abandon experts, and then reason, so I shall ignore that.
Wonder what the consequences would be of a sub 1% margin of victory. If it was really, really close there would have to be some kind of compromise/fudge
Cameron would latch on to a 1% REMAIN win and bluster his way through that it was a glorious win for him and the EU/corporations.
It means I can follow my heart and vote LEAVE, safe in the knowledge that it won't harm my personal finances (via London property etc), and the rest of the country will go REMAIN.
At the same time, I will then have the moral high ground thereafter, and be fully entitled to hurl appalling abuse and accusations of *traitor!!* at anyone who voted REMAIN, when the EU decides to come for the rest of our sovereignty - which, be assured, they will. They really really will.
I'm kinda different.
The better Leave are doing, the more enthused I am about voting for and advocating it. Just don't feel the fear, really. Just the hope.
But maybe I'm unusual.
I fear a Remain win. If the EU was crap before the referendum, it is going to be even more crap for us if the country has just voted to remain.
Well, we will get what we deserve.
Part of me wonders if the EU might just give us a couple of punishment beatings if we stay, anyway, just for having the temerity to have a referendum in the first place and giving them all the heebie-jeebies.
Tbh I suspect that all the potential polling errors are in Leave's favour. I'd actually put leave as favourite right now, in the booth emotion will override doubt IMO. Leave for a 4% win.
Oh, come on, this as close as ComRes have had it bar last week.
Eve of poll:- Survation 1% Remain, Com Res 6% Remain, Yougov 2% Remain, Opinium 1% Leave, TNS 2% Leave or 7% Leave. Either a 1% average lead for Remain or a Tie.
Fair point. Thing is, Sean, like me you are far too emotionally invested in this.
Two days ago you said there wasn't the slightest doubt Remain would win. Tonight, you've called a 10% Leave win.
I think, like me, you're finding this really tough and your emotions are all over the place.
Not quite. I've called a Leave win, and said I wouldn't be surprised by 55/45.
But, if we lose, it will be narrow, and we'll live to fight another day.
Many on our side of the political spectrum now realise that the Conservative Party does not share their values (Matthew Parris' article today reinforces that superbly) and will be looking for a new political home.
I confess I am already feeling a slight lightening of spirit.
So we lost. So it goes The fight will be resumed in different ways, after the summer, and we can make the REMAINERS suffer, for ever, for their treachery and cowardice. Because they are traitors and cowards. That is what they ARE.
Meantime, let's get back to work, football, cricket, having sex, and sleep.
It means I can follow my heart and vote LEAVE, safe in the knowledge that it won't harm my personal finances (via London property etc), and the rest of the country will go REMAIN.
At the same time, I will then have the moral high ground thereafter, and be fully entitled to hurl appalling abuse and accusations of *traitor!!* at anyone who voted REMAIN, when the EU decides to come for the rest of our sovereignty - which, be assured, they will. They really really will.
I'm kinda different.
The better Leave are doing, the more enthused I am about voting for and advocating it. Just don't feel the fear, really. Just the hope.
But maybe I'm unusual.
I fear a Remain win. If the EU was crap before the referendum, it is going to be even more crap for us if the country has just voted to remain.
Well, we will get what we deserve.
Part of me wonders if the EU might just give us a couple of punishment beatings if we stay, anyway, just for having the temerity to have a referendum in the first place and giving them all the heebie-jeebies.
I haven't got a clue what the result will be tomorrow. Then again neither does Dave - and that will leave him curled up overnight clutching his teddy as he has repeated nightmares about his "legacy".
Politics. Always good times
I think Dave has very good idea of what is going to happen tomorrow.
As per previous thread, my Labour Remain friend here in London is very confident. Gave short shrift to my arguments for Leave.
I have friends like that. Complacency central.
I think it's still a real danger for Remain. I am know as the weird politics chap, unsurprisingly, and when, without necessarily saying I support Leave, that I think leave have a chance (not even a good chance) the most common response I get is 'Really?!' Even today that was the case.
Does anyone know how many referendums in the last couple decades have gone against the "status quo" option? (exclude Switzerland and California as they are more like direct democracies who use them way more often). Looking for ones where there was a clear status quo (i.e the Greece No to Austerity doesn't really count as there was no real status quo option there).
The Irish gay marriage vote, the scottish and welsh devolution vote in 1997. Others?
I haven't got a clue what the result will be tomorrow. Then again neither does Dave - and that will leave him curled up overnight clutching his teddy as he has repeated nightmares about his "legacy".
Politics. Always good times
Politics is brutal, for me the person I felt most sorry on election night was Ed Balls, he woke up on May 7th thinking he might be Chancellor of the Exchequer shortly. Next morning he became unemployed.
Yes, but if he'd become CotE, he wouldn't now be Chairman of recently relegated Norwich City. So life has its little compensations (sort of).
I confess I am already feeling a slight lightening of spirit.
So we lost. So it goes The fight will be resumed in different ways, after the summer, and we can make the REMAINERS suffer, for ever, for their treachery and cowardice. Because they are traitors and cowards. That is what they ARE.
Meantime, let's get back to work, football, cricket, having sex, and sleep.
I think there is a small chance UKIP get a poll lead or two by the conference season if this is the result, Leave voting Tories will not have anything to lose with Corbyn still in charge of Labour by registering a Kipper protest and will want to give a protest against Cameron and Osborne, while wwc Labour voters will also want to make sure their feeelings on immigration do not get lost in the midst of a Remain win
UKIP have to get rid of Farage and get their own version of Nicola... If they do that we might, just might, see England abandoning the Tories and Labour in favour of UKIP over the next 2-3 years....
As per previous thread, my Labour Remain friend here in London is very confident. Gave short shrift to my arguments for Leave.
I have friends like that. Complacency central.
I think it's still a real danger for Remain. I am know as the weird politics chap, unsurprisingly, and when, without necessarily saying I support Leave, that I think leave have a chance (not even a good chance) the most common response I get is 'Really?!' Even today that was the case.
My contribution to the Remain campaign has been to spread an Eeyore-like pessimism wherever I go. It's more effective for being genuine, I think.
Oh, come on, this as close as ComRes have had it bar last week.
Eve of poll:- Survation 1% Remain, Com Res 6% Remain, Yougov 2% Remain, Opinium 1% Leave, TNS 2% Leave or 7% Leave. Either a 1% average lead for Remain or a Tie.
Fair point. Thing is, Sean, like me you are far too emotionally invested in this.
Two days ago you said there wasn't the slightest doubt Remain would win. Tonight, you've called a 10% Leave win.
I think, like me, you're finding this really tough and your emotions are all over the place.
Not quite. I've called a Leave win, and said I wouldn't be surprised by 55/45.
But, if we lose, it will be narrow, and we'll live to fight another day.
Many on our side of the political spectrum now realise that the Conservative Party does not share their values (Matthew Parris' article today reinforces that superbly) and will be looking for a new political home.
Wonder what the consequences would be of a sub 1% margin of victory. If it was really, really close there would have to be some kind of compromise/fudge
The funniest idea (but quite believable) is that the 1% of UKIP voters who support Remain seal the deal. That's 39,000 voters.
In a way, if Remain wins overall and England votes Leave it would give both sides something to be happy about. Cameron and Osborne probably wouldn't last long in those circumstances.
Does anyone know how many referendums in the last couple decades have gone against the "status quo" option? (exclude Switzerland and California as they are more like direct democracies who use them way more often). Looking for ones where there was a clear status quo (i.e the Greece No to Austerity doesn't really count as there was no real status quo option there).
The Irish gay marriage vote, the scottish and welsh devolution vote in 1997. Others?
All Irish referendums are on yes/no to a change to the status quo; most pass.
I confess I am already feeling a slight lightening of spirit.
So we lost. So it goes The fight will be resumed in different ways, after the summer, and we can make the REMAINERS suffer, for ever, for their treachery and cowardice. Because they are traitors and cowards. That is what they ARE.
Meantime, let's get back to work, football, cricket, having sex, and sleep.
This is what you wrote just before the general election exit poll:
"I cannot remember ANY election (or any vote - referendum, etc) where the betting odds and the polls have been so opposed. All the polls now imply a Miliband plurality, all the polls show an anti-Tory majority. The betting markets entirely disagree. Can any pb-er recall a disparity of this magnitude?"
Comres all respondents 10/10 = 51/49 Remain - and that's with a sample stuffed with Labour graduates at 78% turnout.
There are some strange weightings for sure. It really needs a fuller analysis tomorrow. For example is the weighted ratio of 118 (18-24) and 229 (65+) correct when i thought I read Yougov? saying that it needed to be circa 1:3? on page 1
The Leavers are clearly having a wobbly Wednesday. But why? Nothing about how utterly winnable this was for them has changed one iota. On Thursday we'll get to see our long-sense shot of the suited figure of Cameron stalking towards his emergency cabinet meeting. We'll still see Boris and Gove pouring champagne over each other's heads.
Doesn't feel like 97 or 2010 when change was clearly coming.
It isn't Remain will most likely win narrowly, probably somewhere between 55-45 and 51-49 as people stick with the status quo as in Scotland for fear of something worse. They will still have the same grudges over immigration etc and when nothing much changes except to see UKIP go up in the polls accordingly! UKIP are the real winners out of a close Remain win, it could be a somewhat pyrrhic victory for the establishment parties
I think the Lib Dems are going to look good as well. They fought an unambiguous, positive pro-EU message which might help to win back some of the young voters who engaged in pram toy-throwing after the introduction of tuition fees.
But yes - it will be interesting to see what happens to UKIP if it's a close Remain. If not, let the in-fighting begin...
As per previous thread, my Labour Remain friend here in London is very confident. Gave short shrift to my arguments for Leave.
the Vote leave ground war was very weak. They couldn't even send a poster out to me and were still leafletting door to door yesterday instead of knocking up? that doesn't make sense when people have already by and large made their minds up.
Labour CLP had data from previous elections whereas Leave.Eu (UKIP) couldn't share their data with Vote leave so vote leave went into this campaign blind.
I think Cameron should thank the labour party and labour grassroot members for saving his bacon.
Doesn't feel like 97 or 2010 when change was clearly coming.
It isn't Remain will most likely win narrowly, probably somewhere between 55-45 and 51-49 as people stick with the status quo as in Scotland for fear of something worse. They will still have the same grudges over immigration etc and when nothing much changes except to see UKIP go up in the polls accordingly! UKIP are the real winners out of a close Remain win, it could be a somewhat pyrrhic victory for the establishment parties
I think the Lib Dems are going to look good as well. They fought an unambiguous, positive pro-EU message which might help to win back some of the young voters who engaged in pram toy-throwing after the introduction of tuition fees.
But yes - it will be interesting to see what happens to UKIP if it's a close Remain. If not, let the in-fighting begin...
The lib dems were campaigning? It doesn't matter how you conduct the campaign if no-one hears about it.
FWIW when is the Ipsos/MORI poll expected? You never know it might just add to the excitement. We are already assured of at least one pollster being found to have been talking out of its proverbial.
The postal votes started being returned during peak Leave
stop trolling! Lol. you were right. Happy?
I always work on the principle assume the worst poll for my side is the most accurate.
TNS means we're leaving the EU.
We are 15 months after the great polling fuck up, and I spoke to a pollster yesterday, and he told me he still had no confidence in the polls.
They are making some assumptions, which may or may not prove to be right.
On that basis we would have PM Ed Miliband, President Mitt Romney and maybe even an independent Scotland. The polling average is what you need to look at and the final polls for each pollster, particularly on eve of poll
I do not like the way that Farage has been vilified, especially towards the end of this campaign.
Bad Al and his ilk are vicious in their language towards their opponents almost to the point of being contrary to the 1986 public order act (incitement to violence.)
Bettors are placing a lot of trust in these polls. Remain is at 1.28/1.29. It touched 1.40 earlier this evening on the online polls.
Me? I dunno.
Tomorrow is going to be momentous, whatever happens.
Placed my winnings so far, and £10, on Leave. Much more fun than Remain I suspect if Sunderland shows a Leave lead, the markets will adjust quite a lot.
In a way, if Remain wins overall and England votes Leave it would give both sides something to be happy about. Cameron and Osborne probably wouldn't last long in those circumstances.
I confess I am already feeling a slight lightening of spirit.
So we lost. So it goes The fight will be resumed in different ways, after the summer, and we can make the REMAINERS suffer, for ever, for their treachery and cowardice. Because they are traitors and cowards. That is what they ARE.
Meantime, let's get back to work, football, cricket, having sex, and sleep.
I think there is a small chance UKIP get a poll lead or two by the conference season if this is the result, Leave voting Tories will not have anything to lose with Corbyn still in charge of Labour by registering a Kipper protest and will want to give a protest against Cameron and Osborne, while wwc Labour voters will also want to make sure their feeelings on immigration do not get lost in the midst of a Remain win
UKIP have to get rid of Farage and get their own version of Nicola... If they do that we might, just might, see England abandoning the Tories and Labour in favour of UKIP over the next 2-3 years....
Could Diane James be Nicola Sturgeon to Farage's Salmond?
FWIW when is the Ipsos/MORI poll expected? You never know it might just add to the excitement. We are already assured of at least one pollster being found to have been talking out of its proverbial.
Wonder what the consequences would be of a sub 1% margin of victory. If it was really, really close there would have to be some kind of compromise/fudge
The funniest idea (but quite believable) is that the 1% of UKIP voters who support Remain seal the deal. That's 39,000 voters.
Isn't it about 5%? The 1% figure is I think of the whole electorate.
The postal votes started being returned during peak Leave
stop trolling! Lol. you were right. Happy?
I always work on the principle assume the worst poll for my side is the most accurate.
TNS means we're leaving the EU.
We are 15 months after the great polling fuck up, and I spoke to a pollster yesterday, and he told me he still had no confidence in the polls.
They are making some assumptions, which may or may not prove to be right.
On that basis we would have PM Ed Miliband, President Mitt Romney and maybe even an independent Scotland. The polling average is what you need to look at and the final polls for each pollster, particularly on eve of poll
I do not like the way that Farage has been vilified, especially towards the end of this campaign.
Bad Al and his ilk are vicious in their language towards their opponents almost to the point of being contrary to the 1986 public order act (incitement to violence.)
What do you think about those who call opposing voters traitors?
Wonder what the consequences would be of a sub 1% margin of victory. If it was really, really close there would have to be some kind of compromise/fudge
The funniest idea (but quite believable) is that the 1% of UKIP voters who support Remain seal the deal. That's 39,000 voters.
Comments
Being in a minority of one doesn't matter, if you're proved to be right.
Our #EUref averages now stand at:
Remain: 45.5%
Leave: 44.0%
Excluding DKs:
Remain: 50.8%
Leave: 49.2% https://t.co/joNtkPgFLA
Democracy confers legitimacy and almost all of us quite like keeping political legitimacy close to home. For now.
The postal votes started being returned during peak Leave
Part of me wonders if the EU might just give us a couple of punishment beatings if we stay, anyway, just for having the temerity to have a referendum in the first place and giving them all the heebie-jeebies.
But, if we lose, it will be narrow, and we'll live to fight another day.
Many on our side of the political spectrum now realise that the Conservative Party does not share their values (Matthew Parris' article today reinforces that superbly) and will be looking for a new political home.
Remain should be marginal favourite.
https://twitter.com/allisonpearson/status/745738617319002112
The Irish gay marriage vote, the scottish and welsh devolution vote in 1997. Others?
Me? I dunno.
Tomorrow is going to be momentous, whatever happens.
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/745739233881694208
However I do hope that we can be friends afterwards and make what ever the electorate give us work.
The last week has really put the freude schöner up the Remainers Götterfunken.
The markets have reacted to the polls tonight. Have they overreacted? We shall see.
Big day tomorrow.
TNS means we're leaving the EU.
We are 15 months after the great polling fuck up, and I spoke to a pollster yesterday, and he told me he still had no confidence in the polls.
They are making some assumptions, which may or may not prove to be right.
Green;
And my VI tommorow:
Remain.
#
I'll head off to Smithfields for the hanging Monday.
"I cannot remember ANY election (or any vote - referendum, etc) where the betting odds and the polls have been so opposed.
All the polls now imply a Miliband plurality, all the polls show an anti-Tory majority. The betting markets entirely disagree.
Can any pb-er recall a disparity of this magnitude?"
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/05/07/lab-close-the-gap-with-ipsos-and-get-within-1-with-ashcroft/
I went over the GE2015 numbers the other day. 10/10 was usually closer to the result than the headline.
But yes - it will be interesting to see what happens to UKIP if it's a close Remain. If not, let the in-fighting begin...
Top trolling ;-)
Labour CLP had data from previous elections whereas Leave.Eu (UKIP) couldn't share their data with Vote leave so vote leave went into this campaign blind.
I think Cameron should thank the labour party and labour grassroot members for saving his bacon.
https://twitter.com/LouiseMensch/status/745740458308009985
https://twitter.com/allisonpearson/status/745742044103049216
Immigration has affected Labour voters in a way that is undeniable - except to the Labour party.
Newsnight panel agreed that Labour are going to be riven by this. Sorry HYUFD.
People seem to react here in the order they are released though instead of the order of the fieldwork...
The fieldwork ended at 9pm tonight
Sorry. Nigel Farage has a family problem, it's not an attack.