Comres all respondents 10/10 = 51/49 Remain - and that's with a sample stuffed with Labour graduates at 78% turnout.
There are some strange weightings for sure. It really needs a fuller analysis tomorrow. For example is the weighted ratio of 118 (18-24) and 229 (65+) correct when i thought I read Yougov? saying that it needed to be circa 1:3? on page 1
Truth be told, I think they are mostly pissing in the wind.
They have often changed methodologies which risks herding. I find that I am looking at who did okay at the GE2015 and who has done well recently for something vaguely trustworthy.
It narrows the field enormously. I agree with OGH and think it is extremely close.
I know a fair few Labour voters who are abstaining or voting leave. It seems to be an age thing.
I confess I am already feeling a slight lightening of spirit.
So we lost. So it goes The fight will be resumed in different ways, after the summer, and we can make the REMAINERS suffer, for ever, for their treachery and cowardice. Because they are traitors and cowards. That is what they ARE.
Meantime, let's get back to work, football, cricket, having sex, and sleep.
I think there is a small chance UKIP get a poll lead or two by the conference season if this is the result, Leave voting Tories will not have anything to lose with Corbyn still in charge of Labour by registering a Kipper protest and will want to give a protest against Cameron and Osborne, while wwc Labour voters will also want to make sure their feeelings on immigration do not get lost in the midst of a Remain win
UKIP have to get rid of Farage and get their own version of Nicola... If they do that we might, just might, see England abandoning the Tories and Labour in favour of UKIP over the next 2-3 years....
Could Diane James be Nicola Sturgeon to Farage's Salmond?
She does not have Nicola's gravitas. In fact, very few do.
My only real worry is what the EU will do to us when we vote remain. There is going to be an absolute tsunami of stuff thrown at us that has been held off until after the vote. I doubt Dave's negotiated deal will ever get agreed as that was also held off to after the vote.
One things for sure the EU will certainly move very quickly to ensure this democracy malarkey of actually asking the people what they want will never ever happen again. Meanwhile all the EU regulars will get back on the EU gravy train as before and business as usual.
And we still won't ever win Eurovision or get a British EU president.
Two things today that have convinced me that Remain have got this shit.
1. Presenter on WATO saying Leave campaign manager had told her today "it's very hard to win a referendum against the status quo"
2. TSE's canvassing report from Pudsey - "we are getting a great reception on the doorstep. Heh" surely that area is as marginal as they come, being lower middle class and up north
Just straws in the wind. I say this as one who is long on Leave.......
I confess I am already feeling a slight lightening of spirit.
So we lost. So it goes The fight will be resumed in different ways, after the summer, and we can make the REMAINERS suffer, for ever, for their treachery and cowardice. Because they are traitors and cowards. That is what they ARE.
Meantime, let's get back to work, football, cricket, having sex, and sleep.
I think there is a small chance UKIP get a poll lead or two by the conference season if this is the result, Leave voting Tories will not have anything to lose with Corbyn still in charge of Labour by registering a Kipper protest and will want to give a protest against Cameron and Osborne, while wwc Labour voters will also want to make sure their feeelings on immigration do not get lost in the midst of a Remain win
UKIP have to get rid of Farage and get their own version of Nicola... If they do that we might, just might, see England abandoning the Tories and Labour in favour of UKIP over the next 2-3 years....
Could Diane James be Nicola Sturgeon to Farage's Salmond?
The postal votes started being returned during peak Leave
stop trolling! Lol. you were right. Happy?
I always work on the principle assume the worst poll for my side is the most accurate.
TNS means we're leaving the EU.
We are 15 months after the great polling fuck up, and I spoke to a pollster yesterday, and he told me he still had no confidence in the polls.
They are making some assumptions, which may or may not prove to be right.
On that basis we would have PM Ed Miliband, President Mitt Romney and maybe even an independent Scotland. The polling average is what you need to look at and the final polls for each pollster, particularly on eve of poll
Is there any evidence that polling averages are more accurate? They're useful in identifying trends but not so good at producing figures. It's not unusual for the actual result to fall outside the entire range of eve-of-poll surveys.
Wonder what the consequences would be of a sub 1% margin of victory. If it was really, really close there would have to be some kind of compromise/fudge
The funniest idea (but quite believable) is that the 1% of UKIP voters who support Remain seal the deal. That's 39,000 voters.
We did meet up with a Kipper voter who was voting Remain because he liked the foreign (Indian) doctor who treated him a few months ago.
Doesn't feel like 97 or 2010 when change was clearly coming.
It isn't Remain will most likely win narrowly, probably somewhere between 55-45 and 51-49 as people stick with the status quo as in Scotland for fear of something worse. They will still have the same grudges over immigration etc and when nothing much changes except to see UKIP go up in the polls accordingly! UKIP are the real winners out of a close Remain win, it could be a somewhat pyrrhic victory for the establishment parties
I think the Lib Dems are going to look good as well. They fought an unambiguous, positive pro-EU message which might help to win back some of the young voters who engaged in pram toy-throwing after the introduction of tuition fees.
But yes - it will be interesting to see what happens to UKIP if it's a close Remain. If not, let the in-fighting begin...
In places like Cheltenham the Lib Dems have lead the remain campaign. I guess if you live in Manchester or Leicester it will be very dfferent
I do not like the way that Farage has been vilified, especially towards the end of this campaign.
Bad Al and his ilk are vicious in their language towards their opponents almost to the point of being contrary to the 1986 public order act (incitement to violence.)
What do you think about those who call opposing voters traitors?
Not much... or those calling leavers little Englanders etc.
Vitriol isn't helpful to the debate.
However Bad Al and his ilk are always vicious to their opponents.
As per previous thread, my Labour Remain friend here in London is very confident. Gave short shrift to my arguments for Leave.
the Vote leave ground war was very weak. They couldn't even send a poster out to me and were still leafletting door to door yesterday instead of knocking up? that doesn't make sense when people have already by and large made their minds up.
Labour CLP had data from previous elections whereas Leave.Eu (UKIP) couldn't share their data with Vote leave so vote leave went into this campaign blind.
I think Cameron should thank the labour party and labour grassroot members for saving his bacon.
I look forward to the post referendum analysis of what went well/wrong.
Two things today that have convinced me that Remain have got this shit.
1. Presenter on WATO saying Leave campaign manager had told her today "it's very hard to win a referendum against the status quo"
2. TSE's canvassing report from Pudsey - "we are getting a great reception on the doorstep. Heh" surely that area is as marginal as they come, being lower middle class and up north
Just straws in the wind. I say this as one who is long on Leave.......
The postal votes started being returned during peak Leave
stop trolling! Lol. you were right. Happy?
I always work on the principle assume the worst poll for my side is the most accurate.
TNS means we're leaving the EU.
We are 15 months after the great polling fuck up, and I spoke to a pollster yesterday, and he told me he still had no confidence in the polls.
They are making some assumptions, which may or may not prove to be right.
On that basis we would have PM Ed Miliband, President Mitt Romney and maybe even an independent Scotland. The polling average is what you need to look at and the final polls for each pollster, particularly on eve of poll
Is there any evidence that polling averages are more accurate? They're useful in identifying trends but not so good at producing figures. It's not unusual for the actual result to fall outside the entire range of eve-of-poll surveys.
They are not perfect but they normally predict the winner, eg the RCP poll average correctly predicted the winner of the last 3 US presidential elections even if not all the final polls did
Two things today that have convinced me that Remain have got this shit.
1. Presenter on WATO saying Leave campaign manager had told her today "it's very hard to win a referendum against the status quo"
2. TSE's canvassing report from Pudsey - "we are getting a great reception on the doorstep. Heh" surely that area is as marginal as they come, being lower middle class and up north
Just straws in the wind. I say this as one who is long on Leave.......
Jonathan was right, this doesn't feel like a 1997 or a 2010 (or even a 2015)
I think the best analogy with the EU we heard was it was like the British weather, we grumble about it, but not much you can do about it. Some days it is great, other days, not so much, you live with it.
The most striking thing for me was Isabel Hardman's comments about Labour wanting their own voters to stay in bed which had the Guardian fella laughing his head off.
I confess I am already feeling a slight lightening of spirit.
So we lost. So it goes The fight will be resumed in different ways, after the summer, and we can make the REMAINERS suffer, for ever, for their treachery and cowardice. Because they are traitors and cowards. That is what they ARE.
Meantime, let's get back to work, football, cricket, having sex, and sleep.
I think there is a small chance UKIP get a poll lead or two by the conference season if this is the result, Leave voting Tories will not have anything to lose with Corbyn still in charge of Labour by registering a Kipper protest and will want to give a protest against Cameron and Osborne, while wwc Labour voters will also want to make sure their feeelings on immigration do not get lost in the midst of a Remain win
UKIP have to get rid of Farage and get their own version of Nicola... If they do that we might, just might, see England abandoning the Tories and Labour in favour of UKIP over the next 2-3 years....
Could Diane James be Nicola Sturgeon to Farage's Salmond?
She does not have Nicola's gravitas. In fact, very few do.
No but she could certainly take UKIP further up in the polls
The postal votes started being returned during peak Leave
We have no idea what is about to happen.
However I do hope that we can be friends afterwards and make what ever the electorate give us work.
Amen to that. We're British after all.
I don't think that's true. There's Little England and there are the Metropolitans. Tomorrow decides who's in charge for the next few years. The losers are not going to be reconciled to defeat - Leavers because they are obsessed on the subject of the EU and Remainers because they think Leave's campaign has been despicable. Neither side looks remotely inclined to accept olive branches.
FWIW when is the Ipsos/MORI poll expected? You never know it might just add to the excitement. We are already assured of at least one pollster being found to have been talking out of its proverbial.
Great finale from Trev. Kavanagh - who really gets his readers
Immigration has affected Labour voters in a way that is undeniable - except to the Labour party.
Newsnight panel agreed that Labour are going to be riven by this. Sorry HYUFD.
He's right and some of the posh or well off labour remain supporters on here should be ahamed of yourselves.
Should those who voted for a high-skilled, southern English services-based based economic model, and against public spending and benefits, be ashamed of themselves?
The postal votes started being returned during peak Leave
stop trolling! Lol. you were right. Happy?
I always work on the principle assume the worst poll for my side is the most accurate.
TNS means we're leaving the EU.
We are 15 months after the great polling fuck up, and I spoke to a pollster yesterday, and he told me he still had no confidence in the polls.
They are making some assumptions, which may or may not prove to be right.
On that basis we would have PM Ed Miliband, President Mitt Romney and maybe even an independent Scotland. The polling average is what you need to look at and the final polls for each pollster, particularly on eve of poll
No, it made election night even more fun.
At least it offers an element of uncertainty, unless a real landslide is on the cards
Wonder what the consequences would be of a sub 1% margin of victory. If it was really, really close there would have to be some kind of compromise/fudge
The funniest idea (but quite believable) is that the 1% of UKIP voters who support Remain seal the deal. That's 39,000 voters.
We did meet up with a Kipper voter who was voting Remain because he liked the foreign (Indian) doctor who treated him a few months ago.
Nowt queer as folk
FFS! Not the sharpest tool in the box then?
Still I did meet a Lib Dem once, and pushed him saying "but they can't win, so who would you then pick?"
My only real worry is what the EU will do to us when we vote remain. There is going to be an absolute tsunami of stuff thrown at us that has been held off until after the vote. I doubt Dave's negotiated deal will ever get agreed as that was also held off to after the vote.
One things for sure the EU will certainly move very quickly to ensure this democracy malarkey of actually asking the people what they want will never ever happen again. Meanwhile all the EU regulars will get back on the EU gravy train as before and business as usual.
And we still won't ever win Eurovision or get a British EU president.
Not to go over all Scottish Nat, but I have two lifelong non-voters saying they are definitely voting for Leave tomorrow - one, in their 60s, asked me to go with them to vote. So that has probably made me more inclined to see the vote as being a big deal, a big change, when perhaps that is not representative.
Two things today that have convinced me that Remain have got this shit.
1. Presenter on WATO saying Leave campaign manager had told her today "it's very hard to win a referendum against the status quo"
2. TSE's canvassing report from Pudsey - "we are getting a great reception on the doorstep. Heh" surely that area is as marginal as they come, being lower middle class and up north
Just straws in the wind. I say this as one who is long on Leave.......
Jonathan was right, this doesn't feel like a 1997 or a 2010 (or even a 2015)
I think the best analogy with the EU we heard was it was like the British weather, we grumble about it, but not much you can do about it. Some days it is great, other days, not so much, you live with it.
Dad is voting against the Conservative leader for the first time in his life.
That is a big deal.
He might start eating garlic soon! Boundaries are being broken.
Wonder what the consequences would be of a sub 1% margin of victory. If it was really, really close there would have to be some kind of compromise/fudge
The funniest idea (but quite believable) is that the 1% of UKIP voters who support Remain seal the deal. That's 39,000 voters.
Isn't it about 5%? The 1% figure is I think of the whole electorate.
Correct. Almost certainly, they would be decisive.
Two things today that have convinced me that Remain have got this shit.
1. Presenter on WATO saying Leave campaign manager had told her today "it's very hard to win a referendum against the status quo"
2. TSE's canvassing report from Pudsey - "we are getting a great reception on the doorstep. Heh" surely that area is as marginal as they come, being lower middle class and up north
Just straws in the wind. I say this as one who is long on Leave.......
Jonathan was right, this doesn't feel like a 1997 or a 2010 (or even a 2015)
I think the best analogy with the EU we heard was it was like the British weather, we grumble about it, but not much you can do about it. Some days it is great, other days, not so much, you live with it.
Quite right. The EU is far from perfect. But better off in. Good luck getting the vote out tomorrow, TSE
I do not like the way that Farage has been vilified, especially towards the end of this campaign.
Bad Al and his ilk are vicious in their language towards their opponents almost to the point of being contrary to the 1986 public order act (incitement to violence.)
What do you think about those who call opposing voters traitors?
Not much... or those calling leavers little Englanders etc.
Vitriol isn't helpful to the debate.
However Bad Al and his ilk are always vicious to their opponents.
Do you think that, given the traditional death penalty for treason and no punishment for being a little Englander, calling pro-EU people traitors would be more likely to cause violence against them?
The most striking thing for me was Isabel Hardman's comments about Labour wanting their own voters to stay in bed which had the Guardian fella laughing his head off.
She was right though. Labour do not like their voters.
The postal votes started being returned during peak Leave
We have no idea what is about to happen.
However I do hope that we can be friends afterwards and make what ever the electorate give us work.
Amen to that. We're British after all.
I don't think that's true. There's Little England and there are the Metropolitans. Tomorrow decides who's in charge for the next few years. The losers are not going to be reconciled to defeat - Leavers because they are obsessed on the subject of the EU and Remainers because they think Leave's campaign has been despicable. Neither side looks remotely inclined to accept olive branches.
The chances of a reconstruction look minimal.
Some losers are not going to be reconciled to defeat, particularly if it were close. But they will be defeatable, since other losers (like me if Remain win) will want the matter put to bed for a long time.
It's only really going to be a problem for people like the Tory party, where the division is much more urgent.
The postal votes started being returned during peak Leave
stop trolling! Lol. you were right. Happy?
I always work on the principle assume the worst poll for my side is the most accurate.
TNS means we're leaving the EU.
We are 15 months after the great polling fuck up, and I spoke to a pollster yesterday, and he told me he still had no confidence in the polls.
They are making some assumptions, which may or may not prove to be right.
On that basis we would have PM Ed Miliband, President Mitt Romney and maybe even an independent Scotland. The polling average is what you need to look at and the final polls for each pollster, particularly on eve of poll
Is there any evidence that polling averages are more accurate? They're useful in identifying trends but not so good at producing figures. It's not unusual for the actual result to fall outside the entire range of eve-of-poll surveys.
They are not perfect but they normally predict the winner, eg the RCP poll average correctly predicted the winner of the last 3 US presidential elections even if not all the final polls did
It would have also called 2000 right but for 500 hanging chads!
Wonder what the consequences would be of a sub 1% margin of victory. If it was really, really close there would have to be some kind of compromise/fudge
The funniest idea (but quite believable) is that the 1% of UKIP voters who support Remain seal the deal. That's 39,000 voters.
We did meet up with a Kipper voter who was voting Remain because he liked the foreign (Indian) doctor who treated him a few months ago.
Nowt queer as folk
FFS! Not the sharpest tool in the box then?
Still I did meet a Lib Dem once, and pushed him saying "but they can't win, so who would you then pick?"
UKIP.
Go figure.
You always get people voting for weird reasons.
Last year I dealt with a voter who said she wasn't voting Tory because of all those deaths at Stafford, she was convinced it happened under the Tories and it showed you can't trust the Tories with the NHS
I also remember the voter who was voting Lib Dem because he fancied Miriam Gonzales
Not to go over all Scottish Nat, but I have two lifelong non-voters saying they are definitely voting for Leave tomorrow - one, in their 60s, asked me to go with them to vote. So that has probably made me more inclined to see the vote as being a big deal, a big change, when perhaps that is not representative.
I'll ask "Pat the cleaner" if she's going to vote. If she is turnout will be huge, but she won't !
They'll be no reconciliation after a narrow Remain win. So much of the ' Kipper wing of Leave is about failure to progress through the Kubler-Ross model. A Remain win will just reenact the original death in front of their eyes.
The postal votes started being returned during peak Leave
We have no idea what is about to happen.
However I do hope that we can be friends afterwards and make what ever the electorate give us work.
Amen to that. We're British after all.
I don't think that's true. There's Little England and there are the Metropolitans. Tomorrow decides who's in charge for the next few years. The losers are not going to be reconciled to defeat - Leavers because they are obsessed on the subject of the EU and Remainers because they think Leave's campaign has been despicable. Neither side looks remotely inclined to accept olive branches.
The chances of a reconstruction look minimal.
Some losers are not going to be reconciled to defeat, particularly if it were close. But they will be defeatable, since other losers (like me if Remain win) will want the matter put to bed for a long time.
It's only really going to be a problem for people like the Tory party, where the division is much more urgent.
That, and the question of how anyone is going to construct any kind of Parliamentary majority in the next few years.
You don't make that point when ICM finds similar findings but has Leave ahead.
Curious.
Do ICM have that online?
You keep avoiding the obvious - they phone up in a rush to collect a poll, get Labour voting grads and get these results.
The research constantly points to it.
In some of their online polls, but has been a consistent pattern in their phone polls, the country seems to remember voting in a Labour majority in 2015.
I'm not avoiding anything obvious, that's why the ORB phone poll was so interesting.
If the country seems to remember voting for Labour maybe the samles are plain wrong. And the methodologies have not changed enough to pick up hard working tories who simply can't get to the phone? Maybe even the Leave leads are understating their leads because not enough tories are answering.
The postal votes started being returned during peak Leave
stop trolling! Lol. you were right. Happy?
I always work on the principle assume the worst poll for my side is the most accurate.
TNS means we're leaving the EU.
We are 15 months after the great polling fuck up, and I spoke to a pollster yesterday, and he told me he still had no confidence in the polls.
They are making some assumptions, which may or may not prove to be right.
On that basis we would have PM Ed Miliband, President Mitt Romney and maybe even an independent Scotland. The polling average is what you need to look at and the final polls for each pollster, particularly on eve of poll
Is there any evidence that polling averages are more accurate? They're useful in identifying trends but not so good at producing figures. It's not unusual for the actual result to fall outside the entire range of eve-of-poll surveys.
They are not perfect but they normally predict the winner, eg the RCP poll average correctly predicted the winner of the last 3 US presidential elections even if not all the final polls did
It would have also called 2000 right but for 500 hanging chads!
I do not like the way that Farage has been vilified, especially towards the end of this campaign.
Bad Al and his ilk are vicious in their language towards their opponents almost to the point of being contrary to the 1986 public order act (incitement to violence.)
What do you think about those who call opposing voters traitors?
Not much... or those calling leavers little Englanders etc.
Vitriol isn't helpful to the debate.
However Bad Al and his ilk are always vicious to their opponents.
Do you think that, given the traditional death penalty for treason and no punishment for being a little Englander, calling pro-EU people traitors would be more likely to cause violence against them?
The postal votes started being returned during peak Leave
We have no idea what is about to happen.
However I do hope that we can be friends afterwards and make what ever the electorate give us work.
Amen to that. We're British after all.
I don't think that's true. There's Little England and there are the Metropolitans. Tomorrow decides who's in charge for the next few years. The losers are not going to be reconciled to defeat - Leavers because they are obsessed on the subject of the EU and Remainers because they think Leave's campaign has been despicable. Neither side looks remotely inclined to accept olive branches.
The chances of a reconstruction look minimal.
Some losers are not going to be reconciled to defeat, particularly if it were close. But they will be defeatable, since other losers (like me if Remain win) will want the matter put to bed for a long time.
It's only really going to be a problem for people like the Tory party, where the division is much more urgent.
That, and the question of how anyone is going to construct any kind of Parliamentary majority in the next few years.
It's a pretty rocky situation - I mean, Cameron couldn't get anything sensitive through before, he certainly won't now, similar numbers could disrupt a Johnson premiership, even if we contrived a general election current indications are, somehow, everyone would do badly.
We are in the hands of civil servants for a few years I think.
Wonder what the consequences would be of a sub 1% margin of victory. If it was really, really close there would have to be some kind of compromise/fudge
The funniest idea (but quite believable) is that the 1% of UKIP voters who support Remain seal the deal. That's 39,000 voters.
We did meet up with a Kipper voter who was voting Remain because he liked the foreign (Indian) doctor who treated him a few months ago.
Nowt queer as folk
FFS! Not the sharpest tool in the box then?
Still I did meet a Lib Dem once, and pushed him saying "but they can't win, so who would you then pick?"
UKIP.
Go figure.
I've witnessed a lot of LD to UKIP switches down here.
Was one of the reasons why I knew the 2010 LDs crutch wasn't going to happen.
The most striking thing for me was Isabel Hardman's comments about Labour wanting their own voters to stay in bed which had the Guardian fella laughing his head off.
She was right though. Labour do not like their voters.
The Conservatives increased net inward migration to 350,000 annually, mostly discretionary non-EU migration, roughly doubling in the last three years. So by that logic, the Conservatives really really hate Labour voters.
Wonder what the consequences would be of a sub 1% margin of victory. If it was really, really close there would have to be some kind of compromise/fudge
The funniest idea (but quite believable) is that the 1% of UKIP voters who support Remain seal the deal. That's 39,000 voters.
We did meet up with a Kipper voter who was voting Remain because he liked the foreign (Indian) doctor who treated him a few months ago.
Nowt queer as folk
FFS! Not the sharpest tool in the box then?
Still I did meet a Lib Dem once, and pushed him saying "but they can't win, so who would you then pick?"
UKIP.
Go figure.
You always get people voting for weird reasons.
Last year I dealt with a voter who said she wasn't voting Tory because of all those deaths at Stafford, she was convinced it happened under the Tories and it showed you can't trust the Tories with the NHS
I also remember the voter who was voting Lib Dem because he fancied Miriam Gonzales
Not to go over all Scottish Nat, but I have two lifelong non-voters saying they are definitely voting for Leave tomorrow - one, in their 60s, asked me to go with them to vote. So that has probably made me more inclined to see the vote as being a big deal, a big change, when perhaps that is not representative.
I'll ask "Pat the cleaner" if she's going to vote. If she is turnout will be huge, but she won't !
Casino was saying that he had met lots of Leave pledges who were eager to share their views that we should leave the EU but said they never voted
Wonder what the consequences would be of a sub 1% margin of victory. If it was really, really close there would have to be some kind of compromise/fudge
The funniest idea (but quite believable) is that the 1% of UKIP voters who support Remain seal the deal. That's 39,000 voters.
We did meet up with a Kipper voter who was voting Remain because he liked the foreign (Indian) doctor who treated him a few months ago.
Nowt queer as folk
FFS! Not the sharpest tool in the box then?
Still I did meet a Lib Dem once, and pushed him saying "but they can't win, so who would you then pick?"
UKIP.
Go figure.
I've witnessed a lot of LD to UKIP switches down here.
Was one of the reasons why I knew the 2010 LDs crutch wasn't going to happen.
Green party leader on a council in england went over to the tories a few years back, IIRC. Odd stuff
A bit of an over-reaction to these latest polls, I think. As has been the case fairly consistently, phone polls are generally better for Remain, but nothing here alters the overall picture that Remain seem to be ahead only by a smidgen, and it could easily go either way. Whilst I think it likely that the phone polls are more accurate that the online polls, because of the self-select bias in the latter, this is an untested hypothesis and one shouldn't place too much confidence in it.
So, whilst my central forecast remains a narrow Remain victory - perhaps 52% or 53% - I don't think we should be surprised by any result within a few points of that.
In my neck of the woods, many of the Vote Leave posters have been "artistically adapted" - the "ea" of "Leave" replaced by a heart, so they now declare we should Vote L❤ve.
Depending on how you think about things, either a rather sweet act of progressivism showing how this is a country that cares more about people than it does about abstract ideas.
Or alternatively, one side's infuriatingly smug attempt at claiming moral and emotional superiority while shutting down debate.
The most striking thing for me was Isabel Hardman's comments about Labour wanting their own voters to stay in bed which had the Guardian fella laughing his head off.
She was right though. Labour do not like their voters.
The Conservatives increased net inward migration to 350,000 annually, mostly discretionary non-EU migration, roughly doubling in the last three years. So by that logic, the Conservatives really really hate Labour voters.
Frankly they need to start by actually counting them both in and out. They currently do it by passenger surveys. Can you believe that? It's a joke.
Also, no Conservative voters as a rule don't, they sail in the same ship. It's the metropolitan elites who hate Labour voters.
Not to go over all Scottish Nat, but I have two lifelong non-voters saying they are definitely voting for Leave tomorrow - one, in their 60s, asked me to go with them to vote. So that has probably made me more inclined to see the vote as being a big deal, a big change, when perhaps that is not representative.
I'll ask "Pat the cleaner" if she's going to vote. If she is turnout will be huge, but she won't !
Casino was saying that he had met lots of Leave pledges who were eager to share their views that we should leave the EU but said they never voted
I think it's a class thing more than anything. I feel duty bound to vote if I can at every single election, even if I'm still a DK at the polling station.
Though I did miss the last PCC due to my postal vote not turning up. I'll vote after work tommorow to see how many votes are in in my very WWC village.
A bit of an over-reaction to these latest polls, I think. As has been the case fairly consistently, phone polls are generally better for Remain, but nothing here alters the overall picture that Remain seem to be ahead only by a smidgen, and it could easily go either way. Whilst I think it likely that the phone polls are more accurate that the online polls, because of the self-select bias in the latter, this is an untested hypothesis and one shouldn't place too much confidence in it.
So, whilst my central forecast remains a narrow Remain victory - perhaps 52% or 53% - I don't think we should be surprised by any result within a few points of that.
This is actually like the 2015 election. We were all here waiting for the inevitable and unstoppable Dave Milliband ( )win and then, then that exit poll.
The overall outcome was the opposite to that expected for a long time and on PB no one was going to trust polling again...... Well until the next time anyway.
Peter from Putney's tip on the 1% margin is looking like it might be value. Might as well make money in the event that we end up with the worst possible result!
A bit of an over-reaction to these latest polls, I think. As has been the case fairly consistently, phone polls are generally better for Remain, but nothing here alters the overall picture that Remain seem to be ahead only by a smidgen, and it could easily go either way. Whilst I think it likely that the phone polls are more accurate that the online polls, because of the self-select bias in the latter, this is an untested hypothesis and one shouldn't place too much confidence in it.
So, whilst my central forecast remains a narrow Remain victory - perhaps 52% or 53% - I don't think we should be surprised by any result within a few points of that.
Will the pro-business, internationalist, liberal, pro-immigration Europhile centrists and the traditional, nationalist, eurosceptics ever be reconciled?
The postal votes started being returned during peak Leave
We have no idea what is about to happen.
However I do hope that we can be friends afterwards and make what ever the electorate give us work.
Amen to that. We're British after all.
I don't think that's true. There's Little England and there are the Metropolitans. Tomorrow decides who's in charge for the next few years. The losers are not going to be reconciled to defeat - Leavers because they are obsessed on the subject of the EU and Remainers because they think Leave's campaign has been despicable. Neither side looks remotely inclined to accept olive branches.
The chances of a reconstruction look minimal.
Not much fun for those of us who regard ourselves as a mixture of the two.
The most striking thing for me was Isabel Hardman's comments about Labour wanting their own voters to stay in bed which had the Guardian fella laughing his head off.
She was right though. Labour do not like their voters.
The Conservatives increased net inward migration to 350,000 annually, mostly discretionary non-EU migration, roughly doubling in the last three years. So by that logic, the Conservatives really really hate Labour voters.
Frankly they need to start by actually counting them both in and out. They currently do it by passenger surveys. Can you believe that? It's a joke.
Also, no Conservative voters as a rule don't, they sail in the same ship. It's the metropolitan elites who hate Labour voters.
Just wondering how we remove people who haven't managed to get a job in 6 months?
This is actually like the 2015 election. We were all here waiting for the inevitable and unstoppable Dave Milliband ( )win and then, then that exit poll.
The overall outcome was the opposite to that expected for a long time and on PB no one was going to trust polling again...... Well until the next time anyway.
Depends who on PB you ask. I have bet on Leave, and expect them to win tomorrow, whatever the polls say. As a Remainer, I hope I lose my money.
The most striking thing for me was Isabel Hardman's comments about Labour wanting their own voters to stay in bed which had the Guardian fella laughing his head off.
She was right though. Labour do not like their voters.
The Conservatives increased net inward migration to 350,000 annually, mostly discretionary non-EU migration, roughly doubling in the last three years. So by that logic, the Conservatives really really hate Labour voters.
The postal votes started being returned during peak Leave
We have no idea what is about to happen.
However I do hope that we can be friends afterwards and make what ever the electorate give us work.
Amen to that. We're British after all.
I don't think that's true. There's Little England and there are the Metropolitans. Tomorrow decides who's in charge for the next few years. The losers are not going to be reconciled to defeat - Leavers because they are obsessed on the subject of the EU and Remainers because they think Leave's campaign has been despicable. Neither side looks remotely inclined to accept olive branches.
The chances of a reconstruction look minimal.
Not much fun for those of us who regard ourselves as a mixture of the two.
It will be the job of those like you to knock sense into both camps. Frankly, I don't fancy your chances with either group. Each thinks the other is a danger to society.
The postal votes started being returned during peak Leave
We have no idea what is about to happen.
However I do hope that we can be friends afterwards and make what ever the electorate give us work.
Amen to that. We're British after all.
I don't think that's true. There's Little England and there are the Metropolitans. Tomorrow decides who's in charge for the next few years. The losers are not going to be reconciled to defeat - Leavers because they are obsessed on the subject of the EU and Remainers because they think Leave's campaign has been despicable. Neither side looks remotely inclined to accept olive branches.
The chances of a reconstruction look minimal.
Not much fun for those of us who regard ourselves as a mixture of the two.
The most striking thing for me was Isabel Hardman's comments about Labour wanting their own voters to stay in bed which had the Guardian fella laughing his head off.
She was right though. Labour do not like their voters.
Both main parties are going to have to come to terms with big internal problems after the referendum. Labour's London elite are completely disconnected from their WWC support, and the Tories are split down the middle in MPs and mostly for Leave in members and activists. Gonna be a long summer for politics, then we go into the US election!
Comments
They have often changed methodologies which risks herding. I find that I am looking at who did okay at the GE2015 and who has done well recently for something vaguely trustworthy.
It narrows the field enormously. I agree with OGH and think it is extremely close.
I know a fair few Labour voters who are abstaining or voting leave. It seems to be an age thing.
One things for sure the EU will certainly move very quickly to ensure this democracy malarkey of actually asking the people what they want will never ever happen again. Meanwhile all the EU regulars will get back on the EU gravy train as before and business as usual.
And we still won't ever win Eurovision or get a British EU president.
I would have said "Top trolling" but thought I would troll him back
1. Presenter on WATO saying Leave campaign manager had told her today "it's very hard to win a referendum against the status quo"
2. TSE's canvassing report from Pudsey - "we are getting a great reception on the doorstep. Heh" surely that area is as marginal as they come, being lower middle class and up north
Just straws in the wind. I say this as one who is long on Leave.......
Turnout, IMO, could be quite a bit lower than in E/W.
Fewer votes to count. Quicker declarations.
They posted the betslips gleefully.
All for Remain. All at odds that could have been bettered.
Unlike tyson, I am pay no heed to the markets on this - too many people involved, not enough understanding of the people. We shall see.
To use a well tested term, 4.5 on a coin toss? I'm on.
Nowt queer as folk
Vitriol isn't helpful to the debate.
However Bad Al and his ilk are always vicious to their opponents.
Good night and enjoy tomorrow everyone.
I think the best analogy with the EU we heard was it was like the British weather, we grumble about it, but not much you can do about it. Some days it is great, other days, not so much, you live with it.
The chances of a reconstruction look minimal.
Still I did meet a Lib Dem once, and pushed him saying "but they can't win, so who would you then pick?"
UKIP.
Go figure.
Either might actually be right.
That is a big deal.
He might start eating garlic soon! Boundaries are being broken.
It's only really going to be a problem for people like the Tory party, where the division is much more urgent.
Last year I dealt with a voter who said she wasn't voting Tory because of all those deaths at Stafford, she was convinced it happened under the Tories and it showed you can't trust the Tories with the NHS
I also remember the voter who was voting Lib Dem because he fancied Miriam Gonzales
We are in the hands of civil servants for a few years I think.
Good night everybody. Leave 54-46.
Was one of the reasons why I knew the 2010 LDs crutch wasn't going to happen.
So, whilst my central forecast remains a narrow Remain victory - perhaps 52% or 53% - I don't think we should be surprised by any result within a few points of that.
Depending on how you think about things, either a rather sweet act of progressivism showing how this is a country that cares more about people than it does about abstract ideas.
Or alternatively, one side's infuriatingly smug attempt at claiming moral and emotional superiority while shutting down debate.
Either way, RIP Jo Cox.
Also, no Conservative voters as a rule don't, they sail in the same ship. It's the metropolitan elites who hate Labour voters.
Still, even if I do vote Leave, I'm not obsessed, and so my membership of our party should be okay.
Though I did miss the last PCC due to my postal vote not turning up. I'll vote after work tommorow to see how many votes are in in my very WWC village.
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.
The overall outcome was the opposite to that expected for a long time and on PB no one was going to trust polling again...... Well until the next time anyway.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/22/remains-project-sneer-has-laid-bare-the-contempt-politicians-hav/
Might as well make money in the event that we end up with the worst possible result!
Will the pro-business, internationalist, liberal, pro-immigration Europhile centrists and the traditional, nationalist, eurosceptics ever be reconciled?