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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Two massive poll boosts for REMAIN with voting starting in

SystemSystem Posts: 12,266
edited June 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Two massive poll boosts for REMAIN with voting starting in less than nine hours

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  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,769
    edited June 2016
    Doesn't feel like 97 or 2010 when change was clearly coming.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    That ComRes poll is a dagger through the heart of the Brexit camp.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Damn it! Looks like Remain has won.
  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    The accuracy of the media prism on the ex industrial Labour heartlands in this campaign will be key.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Jonathan said:

    Doesn't feel like 97 or 2010 when change was clearly coming.

    Do you live in London?
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    FPT:

    My anecdata is leaning heavily in one direction, the polls to other. I'm going to back my anecdata due to the fact that there are still significant doubts over the reliability and accuracy of polling. I'm going 52-48 for leave.

    Also, someone give Paxman a shotgun, some (ie most) of the audience need to be put down.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stretford_and_Urmston_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

    That Katie Price candidacy in full ☺
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,769
    AndyJS said:

    Jonathan said:

    Doesn't feel like 97 or 2010 when change was clearly coming.

    Do you live in London?
    No.
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    Remain was always favourite but you get the feeling the general public appetite for the EU is about as high as a 2p coin is deep.

    By the way, Wales, we'll see you in Paris this weekend and we are likely to win.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,565
    Relieved to see these polls. Don't believe them though. One day more....
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,674
    Chameleon said:

    FPT:

    My anecdata is leaning heavily in one direction, the polls to other. I'm going to back my anecdata due to the fact that there are still significant doubts over the reliability and accuracy of polling. I'm going 52-48 for leave.

    Also, someone give Paxman a shotgun, some (ie most) of the audience need to be put down.

    Are there any doubts about the reliability and accuracy of anecdotes?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Y0kel said:

    Remain was always favourite but you get the feeling the general public appetite for the EU is about as high as a 2p coin is deep.

    By the way, Wales, we'll see you in Paris this weekend and we are likely to win.

    It's a bit silly reading so much into these last two polls just because they were the last two to be published. We could have had Opinium and TNS tonight and YouGov and ComRes earlier.
  • ManchesterKurtManchesterKurt Posts: 923
    Where has this idea that London is somehow massively different from the rest of the country come from?

    Anecdotal, just like many of the other comments on here, but of the dozen or so friends who I've talked to and a similar number of fellow workers, professionals, every single one is voting remain.

    That is not because everyone in Manchester is voting remain of course, more that you hang around with people likely to have similar opinions to yourself, you are more likely to have these discussions in the workplace with people of the same mindset.

    Anyway, as I say, totally anecdotally, but I would guess that the southern half of Greater Manchester and vast swathes of north Cheshire will be very very heavily Remain tomorrow, probably as much if not more so than London overall.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,999
    So the phone/online gap is back - or perhaps just more obvious. At the 2015 GE, the phone polls understated the Tory lead while the online ones *really* understated it. If - and it's a big if - it's anything similar, then Remain would be on for about a 55-45 win.
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,866
    YellowSubmarine said:

    The accuracy of the media prism on the ex industrial Labour heartlands in this campaign will be key.

    John Harris of the Guardian will become the new gold standard. He did have it nailed about the SNP landslide #justsaying
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,769
    Campaigns this feels most like is 92 or 05. Muddy. A swing against the status quo, but not enough to change.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    A load of people are changing their Facebook profile pictures to leave or remain logos. Could they not just eff off?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,611
    Some pollsters are going to have egg on their faces in 30 hours' time, that much is sure.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,999
    Big impact of the ComRes poll on Betfair. Leave odds shot out from 4.1 to 4.7 .
  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    The first version of the media prism is the right wing one. If you blame the fact your life is **** on " Thatcher " you're accused of being a state dependent cripple blaming others for complex decades long shifts in economics. However the exact same people saying the exact same thing are now being lionised as some sort of archer at a neoAgincourt. Simply because they are blaming immigrants not Thatcher. That aside the prism is assuming their is a ' secret England ' somewhere that's going to vote in rates it's never voted before like Arthur awaking in our hour of need. The problem is indyref told us mobilisation by the dismissed triggers counter countermiobilisation by the affluent.
  • valleyboyvalleyboy Posts: 606
    Y0kel said:

    Remain was always favourite but you get the feeling the general public appetite for the EU is about as high as a 2p coin is deep.

    By the way, Wales, we'll see you in Paris this weekend and we are likely to win.

    Lol
    Who finished top of their group?
    See you in Paris.



  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,721
    Jonathan said:

    Doesn't feel like 97 or 2010 when change was clearly coming.

    It isn't Remain will most likely win narrowly, probably somewhere between 55-45 and 51-49 as people stick with the status quo as in Scotland for fear of something worse. They will still have the same grudges over immigration etc and when nothing much changes except to see UKIP go up in the polls accordingly! UKIP are the real winners out of a close Remain win, it could be a somewhat pyrrhic victory for the establishment parties
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,765
    david_herdson said:

    So the phone/online gap is back - or perhaps just more obvious. At the 2015 GE, the phone polls understated the Tory lead while the online ones *really* understated it. If - and it's a big if - it's anything similar, then Remain would be on for about a 55-45 win.

    If that happened and I were Dave, I'd be tempted to stay on for 2020 - he'd be politically invincible.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    FPT:
    tyson said:

    Mortimer said:

    tyson said:

    Wanderer said:

    The overall picture from polling is that it's still on a knife-edge.

    It was in 2015- but the betting markets called the Tories. Follow the cash.

    I'm sorry (not) if I'm being repetitive, but I'm just having too much fun.
    I got better odds on Tory maj on the eve of the poll in 2015 than I've just got on Remain.
    What odds did you get on Labour largest party 2015? Just remind me. Or 1992 for that matter. Next........
    What are you on about?

    Tory majority bet WON in 2015. Despite the betting markets not calling it.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,414
    4.5 now.

    The Ipsos Mori poll out tomorrow finished their field work at 9pm tonight
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    edited June 2016
    AndyJS said:

    Y0kel said:

    Remain was always favourite but you get the feeling the general public appetite for the EU is about as high as a 2p coin is deep.

    By the way, Wales, we'll see you in Paris this weekend and we are likely to win.

    It's a bit silly reading so much into these last two polls just because they were the last two to be published. We could have had Opinium and TNS tonight and YouGov and ComRes earlier.
    Thats the point. The polls say one or the other but the smell in the air is that really there are comparatively few full-on Euro enthusiasts.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,389
    https://twitter.com/oldnorthroad/status/745703738397065216
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,855
    GIN1138 said:

    DanSmith said:

    ComRes has the Labour vote going 80-20 to Remain...

    Maybe Jezza has "saved" Cameron and Osborne! "Sir Jeremy Corbyn" by this time next year perhaps? ;)
    He's already gone native and dressed in white tie and so on at least once.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,855
    surbiton said:

    As Will Self put it succinctly, not all Brexiters are racists, but all racists will be voting for Brexit.

    Wow! Will Self said something succinctly?!

    Did he manage to do it without looking/sounding like a self important pompous git as well? (Actually I enjoy his articles by and large, but good lord he bloviates).

    He's also wrong, although naturally I only have anecdote - I know two definite racists who say they're voting Remain - they think Boris will be a disaster, the EU will punish us hard and we'll suffer economically, and apparently even the promise of cutting immigration isn't enough to overcome that.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,161
    Theuniondivvie said:

    https://twitter.com/oldnorthroad/status/745703738397065216

    Smug git :D
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    Stark_Dawning said:

    david_herdson said:

    So the phone/online gap is back - or perhaps just more obvious. At the 2015 GE, the phone polls understated the Tory lead while the online ones *really* understated it. If - and it's a big if - it's anything similar, then Remain would be on for about a 55-45 win.

    If that happened and I were Dave, I'd be tempted to stay on for 2020 - he'd be politically invincible.
    And UKIP would be the official opposition after 2020 in those circumstances.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    FPT
    DanSmith said:

    ComRes has the Labour vote going 80-20 to Remain...

    Maybe 14% was right...
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,769
    Britain very rarely votes for change. Maybe it's different this time, but every time I've seen it before its been obvious it was coming.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,414
    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/745712798253092864
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,855
    It would actually be kind of hilarious if after all this it's something like 60/40 to Remain, and to have the pollsters put an announcement like 'Why in the f*** do you people keep lying to us in our surveys?'
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    Leave is really drifting now.
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    Mortimer said:

    FPT:

    tyson said:

    Mortimer said:

    tyson said:

    Wanderer said:

    The overall picture from polling is that it's still on a knife-edge.

    It was in 2015- but the betting markets called the Tories. Follow the cash.

    I'm sorry (not) if I'm being repetitive, but I'm just having too much fun.
    I got better odds on Tory maj on the eve of the poll in 2015 than I've just got on Remain.
    What odds did you get on Labour largest party 2015? Just remind me. Or 1992 for that matter. Next........
    What are you on about?

    Tory majority bet WON in 2015. Despite the betting markets not calling it.
    I still have a feeling about tomorrow. We will see.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    4.8 now!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,414
    4.8 now. I love this market, seems to (over)react to good polls for Remain
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,120
    Mortimer said:

    FPT:

    tyson said:

    Mortimer said:

    tyson said:

    Wanderer said:

    The overall picture from polling is that it's still on a knife-edge.

    It was in 2015- but the betting markets called the Tories. Follow the cash.

    I'm sorry (not) if I'm being repetitive, but I'm just having too much fun.
    I got better odds on Tory maj on the eve of the poll in 2015 than I've just got on Remain.
    What odds did you get on Labour largest party 2015? Just remind me. Or 1992 for that matter. Next........
    What are you on about?

    Tory majority bet WON in 2015. Despite the betting markets not calling it.
    Do I have to spell this out....despite the average of polls in 2015 calling Labour the largest party, the betting markets called the Tories as the largest.

    Very few people called a Tory majority....but to be clear the betting markets were much closer to a Tory majority than the polls.


  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    nunu said:

    Damn it! Looks like Remain has won.

    What did you expect,do you think this was a fair fight ?
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    Mortimer said:

    Leave is really drifting now.

    Oh FFS, it's a conspiracy to make me put more money on it :P
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,257
    Country chickening out at the last minute.

    What a shame. I thought we were better than that.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,611
    Bad Al warming up for Chilcot.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Chameleon said:

    FPT:

    My anecdata is leaning heavily in one direction, the polls to other. I'm going to back my anecdata due to the fact that there are still significant doubts over the reliability and accuracy of polling. I'm going 52-48 for leave.

    Also, someone give Paxman a shotgun, some (ie most) of the audience need to be put down.

    Just back home, some Leicester anecdata:

    1) Stronger In leafletting commuters at the Railway station. First street campaigning rhat I have seen. Seem to be getting good reception.

    2) Keith Vaz has bunting up at his constituency office - for Leicester City FC. Nothing for Labour In on show. I interpret this as opportunistic inactivity. There are no votes to be had.

    3) 90 year old farmer, voting Out. Showed me the front page of the DM. Said that the EU want to replace the Queen with a president. I did point out that half a dozen EU countries are also Monarchies. Didn't seem convinced.

    4) Elderly posh lady genuinely undecided, but will vote.

    5) WWC older couple walking out of clinic. Not going to vote as "what difference does a single vote make?"

    Interpretation:

    Leave to win Leicester on low turnout.


  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,161
    SeanT said:

    This is good for, well, me.

    It means I can follow my heart and vote LEAVE, safe in the knowledge that it won't harm my personal finances (via London property etc), and the rest of the country will go REMAIN.

    At the same time, I will then have the moral high ground thereafter, and be fully entitled to hurl appalling abuse and accusations of *traitor!!* at anyone who voted REMAIN, when the EU decides to come for the rest of our sovereignty - which, be assured, they will. They really really will.

    My thinking too.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,855
    Despite some phone Leave wins, I guess it comes down to Online and Phone again, at least to see who is closest. But I'm sticking with if the aggregate shows too close to call, and anecdotal is overwhelming, it's alright to predict the latter will add a few more points to the TCTC figures and swing it. 54-46 Leave
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    ManchesterKurt said:

    Where has this idea that London is somehow massively different from the rest of the country come from?

    Anecdotal, just like many of the other comments on here, but of the dozen or so friends who I've talked to and a similar number of fellow workers, professionals, every single one is voting remain.

    That is not because everyone in Manchester is voting remain of course, more that you hang around with people likely to have similar opinions to yourself, you are more likely to have these discussions in the workplace with people of the same mindset.

    Anyway, as I say, totally anecdotally, but I would guess that the southern half of Greater Manchester and vast swathes of north Cheshire will be very very heavily Remain tomorrow, probably as much if not more so than London overall.

    Londoners are more sophisticated.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,257
    Jonathan said:

    Campaigns this feels most like is 92 or 05. Muddy. A swing against the status quo, but not enough to change.

    Probably true.

    Sadly.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    4.5 now.

    The Ipsos Mori poll out tomorrow finished their field work at 9pm tonight

    When are they releasing that?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,740
    edited June 2016
    The giveaways earlier in the day were:

    1) The Opinium Wisdom Index showing far, far more people think Remain will win (46-27)

    2) The uptick in Cameron satisfaction among Con voters (MORI) - with vast majority of Con voters now satisfied with him

    If most people think Remain will win then it's likely it will - people know that many won't follow through with a Leave vote when it comes to the crunch.

    And if the vast majority of Con voters are satisfied with Cameron, are the vast majority also going to vote Leave? Again, looks like they won't follow through when it comes to the crunch.

    And now the direction of travel is confirmed with ComRes and YouGov.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Betfair Brexit market will top £50 million in next couple of hours
  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    The second version of the media prism is the Paul Mason/John Harris axis. They've more genuine concern for the ex industrial Labour heartlands and have accurately diagnosed why the metropolitan liberal left ignores hates these people. I'm just sceptical it's not too heavily tinged with faux 1945 nostalgia and a form of self loathing. As if Mason and Harris aren't paid up members of the urban media elite in every other way.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    Jonathan said:

    Britain very rarely votes for change. Maybe it's different this time, but every time I've seen it before its been obvious it was coming.

    I get what you are saying and I agree the feel is not like 1979 or 1997 or 2010. But, then, this isn't a general election. What does "change" feel like for a referendum? I don't have any experience of that.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    Wanderer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Leave is really drifting now.

    Oh FFS, it's a conspiracy to make me put more money on it :P
    I know. I'm starting to stake more than I really planned to do...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,414
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    4.5 now.

    The Ipsos Mori poll out tomorrow finished their field work at 9pm tonight

    When are they releasing that?
    Tomorrow morning
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Comres basics:

    Labour 2015 voters : 256
    Tory 2015 voters : 233

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/bbcsporf/status/745717773070905345
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    tyson said:

    Mortimer said:

    FPT:

    tyson said:

    Mortimer said:

    tyson said:

    Wanderer said:

    The overall picture from polling is that it's still on a knife-edge.

    It was in 2015- but the betting markets called the Tories. Follow the cash.

    I'm sorry (not) if I'm being repetitive, but I'm just having too much fun.
    I got better odds on Tory maj on the eve of the poll in 2015 than I've just got on Remain.
    What odds did you get on Labour largest party 2015? Just remind me. Or 1992 for that matter. Next........
    What are you on about?

    Tory majority bet WON in 2015. Despite the betting markets not calling it.
    Do I have to spell this out....despite the average of polls in 2015 calling Labour the largest party, the betting markets called the Tories as the largest.

    Very few people called a Tory majority....but to be clear the betting markets were much closer to a Tory majority than the polls.


    So you're saying that polls and markets were wrong? Thought so, thanks.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    AndyJS said:

    Y0kel said:

    Remain was always favourite but you get the feeling the general public appetite for the EU is about as high as a 2p coin is deep.

    By the way, Wales, we'll see you in Paris this weekend and we are likely to win.

    It's a bit silly reading so much into these last two polls just because they were the last two to be published. We could have had Opinium and TNS tonight and YouGov and ComRes earlier.
    Well said.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    I hate this Toby Young !
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    edited June 2016
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    4.5 now.

    The Ipsos Mori poll out tomorrow finished their field work at 9pm tonight

    What time is it out?

    Edit: Already answered below.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    4.5 now.

    The Ipsos Mori poll out tomorrow finished their field work at 9pm tonight

    When are they releasing that?
    Tomorrow morning
    Surprised that is allowed to release a poll while voting is taking place. In the same way as the media aren't allowed to really say anything other than there is a vote on.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,611
    MarkSenior said:

    Betfair Brexit market will top £50 million in next couple of hours

    And 10% of that total has been today, yet the price has barely moved!
    http://politicalodds.bet/eu-referendum?time=1#i
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,855
    SeanT said:

    This is good for, well, me.

    It means I can follow my heart and vote LEAVE, safe in the knowledge that it won't harm my personal finances (via London property etc), and the rest of the country will go REMAIN.

    At the same time, I will then have the moral high ground thereafter, and be fully entitled to hurl appalling abuse and accusations of *traitor!!* at anyone who voted REMAIN, when the EU decides to come for the rest of our sovereignty - which, be assured, they will. They really really will.

    My delicate sensibilities would prevent me yelling Traitor at anyone, and sadly I do not yet have any property let alone in London, but otherwise I'm in the same boat - I have the consistency of a wet biscuit, I'm anxious, I dislike many things about the VoteLeave campaign and that puts great pressure on my fundamental dislike of the EU and belief it will get no better - but a comfortable Remain win, well, consequence free to vote Leave then, phew!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,257
    kle4 said:

    surbiton said:

    As Will Self put it succinctly, not all Brexiters are racists, but all racists will be voting for Brexit.

    Wow! Will Self said something succinctly?!

    Did he manage to do it without looking/sounding like a self important pompous git as well? (Actually I enjoy his articles by and large, but good lord he bloviates).

    He's also wrong, although naturally I only have anecdote - I know two definite racists who say they're voting Remain - they think Boris will be a disaster, the EU will punish us hard and we'll suffer economically, and apparently even the promise of cutting immigration isn't enough to overcome that.
    Will Self enjoys labelling his political opponents as racists.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,414
    chestnut said:

    Comres basics:

    Labour 2015 voters : 256
    Tory 2015 voters : 233

    You don't make that point when ICM finds similar findings but has Leave ahead.

    Curious.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    edited June 2016
    @faisalislam: My dad is convinced that all the home nations footballing success is going to help Cameron...

    Britain Stronger in Europe !!!!

    (Does not include Scotland...)
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Casino_Royale said:

    Country chickening out at the last minute.

    What a shame. I thought we were better than that.

    This was the only chance for Britain to be free,we are finished as a free democratic nation.

    Superstate on way.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,721
    My final projection - Remain 52% Leave 48%

  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    kle4 said:

    Despite some phone Leave wins, I guess it comes down to Online and Phone again, at least to see who is closest. But I'm sticking with if the aggregate shows too close to call, and anecdotal is overwhelming, it's alright to predict the latter will add a few more points to the TCTC figures and swing it. 54-46 Leave

    I hope I'm wrong but it feels like 58-42 to Remain to me.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Casino_Royale said:

    Country chickening out at the last minute.

    What a shame. I thought we were better than that.

    The status quo is magnetic it seems - past performance can be a guide to the future.

    BUT

    it's not banked yet.. nor my winnings.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/tanit/status/745728889952034816
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,721
    SeanT said:

    On the upside, this is the end of Scottish Nationalism, as a serious force for independence.

    Britain will endure.

    Indeed, just the resentment now switches from the cybernats to the cyberkippers, if these last two polls are true!
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    chestnut said:

    Comres basics:

    Labour 2015 voters : 256
    Tory 2015 voters : 233

    hmmm
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,414
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    4.5 now.

    The Ipsos Mori poll out tomorrow finished their field work at 9pm tonight

    When are they releasing that?
    Tomorrow morning
    Surprised that is allowed to release a poll while voting is taking place. In the same way as the media aren't allowed to really say anything other than there is a vote on.
    They do it at general elections.

    You're allowed to publish polls which show how people intend to vote.

    You're not allowed to publish polls showing how people HAVE voted
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,257
    Heseltine needs to be put out to pasture.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,161
    And Newsnight focusing on Boris and Cameron's history... stupid.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    chestnut said:

    Comres basics:

    Labour 2015 voters : 256
    Tory 2015 voters : 233

    Was that before or after weighting ?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,414
    SeanT said:

    On the upside, this is the end of Scottish Nationalism, as a serious force for independence.

    Britain will endure.

    Killed it stone dead?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    HYUFD said:

    My final projection - Remain 52% Leave 48%

    What do you predict for England?
  • CornishBlueCornishBlue Posts: 840
    Tykejohnno said:

    nunu said:

    Damn it! Looks like Remain has won.

    What did you expect,do you think this was a fair fight ?
    Exactly. You fought the establishment and guess what - the establishment won. That's how Britain works.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    Thunderstorm hitting South London soon. Should pass over quickly but more to come overnight and tomorrow...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,161
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    4.5 now.

    The Ipsos Mori poll out tomorrow finished their field work at 9pm tonight

    When are they releasing that?
    Tomorrow morning
    Surprised that is allowed to release a poll while voting is taking place. In the same way as the media aren't allowed to really say anything other than there is a vote on.
    They do it at general elections.

    You're allowed to publish polls which show how people intend to vote.

    You're not allowed to publish polls showing how people HAVE voted
    A little known fact is the BBC had a sniper on duty in case Dimbleby fluffed and accidentally started to reveal the contents of the exit poll... :D
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    Scott_P said:

    @faisalislam: My dad is convinced that all the home nations footballing success is going to help Cameron...

    Britain Stronger in Europe !!!!

    (Does not include Scotland...)

    A colleague of mine said to me this morning; 'This referendum's brought out all the little Englanders, there are flags everywhere'!
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Mortimer said:

    tyson said:

    Mortimer said:

    FPT:

    tyson said:

    Mortimer said:

    tyson said:

    Wanderer said:

    The overall picture from polling is that it's still on a knife-edge.

    It was in 2015- but the betting markets called the Tories. Follow the cash.

    I'm sorry (not) if I'm being repetitive, but I'm just having too much fun.
    I got better odds on Tory maj on the eve of the poll in 2015 than I've just got on Remain.
    What odds did you get on Labour largest party 2015? Just remind me. Or 1992 for that matter. Next........
    What are you on about?

    Tory majority bet WON in 2015. Despite the betting markets not calling it.
    Do I have to spell this out....despite the average of polls in 2015 calling Labour the largest party, the betting markets called the Tories as the largest.

    Very few people called a Tory majority....but to be clear the betting markets were much closer to a Tory majority than the polls.


    So you're saying that polls and markets were wrong? Thought so, thanks.
    Right direction, wrong magnitude is what I think tyson is saying.

    It is not just the betting markets, the currency and stockmarkets point that way too.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,257
    Scott_P said:

    @faisalislam: My dad is convinced that all the home nations footballing success is going to help Cameron...

    Britain Stronger in Europe !!!!

    (Does not include Scotland...)

    Faisal is a fully paid up member of BSE.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,999
    Wanderer said:

    Jonathan said:

    Britain very rarely votes for change. Maybe it's different this time, but every time I've seen it before its been obvious it was coming.

    I get what you are saying and I agree the feel is not like 1979 or 1997 or 2010. But, then, this isn't a general election. What does "change" feel like for a referendum? I don't have any experience of that.
    The reluctant 'it's a bit crap but it's probably better than the alternative' is more 1992 or 2005.

    "Change" in a referendum probably feels like the Scottish Devolution vote in 1998, when it was more confirmation of a national mood already in place. It would be pretty unusual anywhere for any change referendum to pass with so much of the political establishment on the other side.
  • LucyJonesLucyJones Posts: 651
    When was the fieldwork for the phone polls? Post Jo Cox? Shy Leavers?

    Clutching at straws?

    This waiting is awful. There's still hope, but I'm more-or-less expecting to feel gutted by Friday morning.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    CornishBlue said:

    Tykejohnno said:

    nunu said:

    Damn it! Looks like Remain has won.

    What did you expect,do you think this was a fair fight ?
    Exactly. You fought the establishment and guess what - the establishment won. That's how Britain works.
    Yep, I was saying that weeks back.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Casino_Royale said:

    Heseltine needs to be put out to pasture.

    Great statement though. Every 28 country is a democracy. Many were not 50 years ago.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    PlatoSaid said:

    AndyJS said:

    Y0kel said:

    Remain was always favourite but you get the feeling the general public appetite for the EU is about as high as a 2p coin is deep.

    By the way, Wales, we'll see you in Paris this weekend and we are likely to win.

    It's a bit silly reading so much into these last two polls just because they were the last two to be published. We could have had Opinium and TNS tonight and YouGov and ComRes earlier.
    Well said.
    Incidentally I haven't made a final decision how to vote yet. Everyone I know is voting Remain which is difficult to ignore completely.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,721
    david_herdson said:

    So the phone/online gap is back - or perhaps just more obvious. At the 2015 GE, the phone polls understated the Tory lead while the online ones *really* understated it. If - and it's a big if - it's anything similar, then Remain would be on for about a 55-45 win.

    The old will be for leave though, in Scotland they were for Remain and they turnout more than the young. The middle classes also turnout more and are for Remain but I expect the high older voter turnout to make the final result a shade nearer 50%-50% than 55%-45% though Remain should win
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    brokenwheel said:

    FPT

    DanSmith said:

    ComRes has the Labour vote going 80-20 to Remain...

    Maybe 14% was right...
    He wouldn't have blown his top would he - 60-40 is much more likely - in which case this match is going into extra time.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,920
    Casino_Royale said:

    Heseltine needs to be put out to pasture.

    He had a good point, well made. The EU has cemented parliamentary democracy across most of the continent.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    AndyJS said:

    Y0kel said:

    Remain was always favourite but you get the feeling the general public appetite for the EU is about as high as a 2p coin is deep.

    By the way, Wales, we'll see you in Paris this weekend and we are likely to win.

    It's a bit silly reading so much into these last two polls just because they were the last two to be published. We could have had Opinium and TNS tonight and YouGov and ComRes earlier.
    It's a bit silly reading so much into polls full stop.

    Unless you've forgotten May 2015.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    RobD said:

    SeanT said:

    This is good for, well, me.

    It means I can follow my heart and vote LEAVE, safe in the knowledge that it won't harm my personal finances (via London property etc), and the rest of the country will go REMAIN.

    At the same time, I will then have the moral high ground thereafter, and be fully entitled to hurl appalling abuse and accusations of *traitor!!* at anyone who voted REMAIN, when the EU decides to come for the rest of our sovereignty - which, be assured, they will. They really really will.

    My thinking too.
    It's my consolation too. Definitely the high moral ground.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,769
    Wanderer said:

    Jonathan said:

    Britain very rarely votes for change. Maybe it's different this time, but every time I've seen it before its been obvious it was coming.

    I get what you are saying and I agree the feel is not like 1979 or 1997 or 2010. But, then, this isn't a general election. What does "change" feel like for a referendum? I don't have any experience of that.
    Indeed. But the British public are the same, and they have to be seriously moved to make a change. Maybe it will be different. But the muddyness that has characterised the campaign is not a positive sign for Leavers.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,414
    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/745731968025911296
  • steve_garnersteve_garner Posts: 1,019
    Polls all over the place. At the GE polls were well out. The pollsters have next to no baseline for this referendum. At the risk of looking stupid I think Leave will nick this.
This discussion has been closed.