Will the pro-business, internationalist, liberal, pro-immigration Europhile centrists and the traditional, nationalist, eurosceptics ever be reconciled?
Yes - they coexisted within parties before now even if it made no sense, and will do so again in time, even though it makes no sense.
If England votes Leave and the Scots, Welsh, Northern Irish and Gibraltarians vote Remain in large enough numbers to keep Britain in the EU, let's have English independence
Will the pro-business, internationalist, liberal, pro-immigration Europhile centrists and the traditional, nationalist, eurosceptics ever be reconciled?
Normally we move on after a vote... till the next one.
The thing about immigration is though, that even the remainers I know think it is outrageously high so clearly it isn't about immigration but the vast and unknown scale.
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.
I'd go further and say there's a very good chance the Conservative Party is finished as well. I have a hunch Farage will go, UKIP will elect someone much smarter and the Tories will face an existential crisis across England...
A bit of an over-reaction to these latest polls, I think. As has been the case fairly consistently, phone polls are generally better for Remain, but nothing here alters the overall picture that Remain seem to be ahead only by a smidgen, and it could easily go either way. Whilst I think it likely that the phone polls are more accurate that the online polls, because of the self-select bias in the latter, this is an untested hypothesis and one shouldn't place too much confidence in it.
So, whilst my central forecast remains a narrow Remain victory - perhaps 52% or 53% - I don't think we should be surprised by any result within a few points of that.
Poor weather in Greater London region tomorrow - Remains great redoubt. Worrying.
Peter from Putney's tip on the 1% margin is looking like it might be value. Might as well make money in the event that we end up with the worst possible result!
Whatever the result please at least make it decisive so it is clear cut no grey area or argument. This knife edge stuff is not going to solve anything and if it's just a tiny majority for remain then even worse.
The most striking thing for me was Isabel Hardman's comments about Labour wanting their own voters to stay in bed which had the Guardian fella laughing his head off.
She was right though. Labour do not like their voters.
The Conservatives increased net inward migration to 350,000 annually, mostly discretionary non-EU migration, roughly doubling in the last three years. So by that logic, the Conservatives really really hate Labour voters.
Frankly they need to start by actually counting them both in and out. They currently do it by passenger surveys. Can you believe that? It's a joke.
Also, no Conservative voters as a rule don't, they sail in the same ship. It's the metropolitan elites who hate Labour voters.
Just wondering how we remove people who haven't managed to get a job in 6 months?
There is not mechanism to even know who they are let alone find them.
The postal votes started being returned during peak Leave
We have no idea what is about to happen.
However I do hope that we can be friends afterwards and make what ever the electorate give us work.
Amen to that. We're British after all.
I don't think that's true. There's Little England and there are the Metropolitans. Tomorrow decides who's in charge for the next few years. The losers are not going to be reconciled to defeat - Leavers because they are obsessed on the subject of the EU and Remainers because they think Leave's campaign has been despicable. Neither side looks remotely inclined to accept olive branches.
The chances of a reconstruction look minimal.
Some losers are not going to be reconciled to defeat, particularly if it were close. But they will be defeatable, since other losers (like me if Remain win) will want the matter put to bed for a long time.
It's only really going to be a problem for people like the Tory party, where the division is much more urgent.
That, and the question of how anyone is going to construct any kind of Parliamentary majority in the next few years.
Quite. There's 10/1 on a GE this year and 10/1 on one next year with Shadsy.
How is Parliament not going to be completely logjammed after this vote, if half a dozen Tory rebels can sink any bill in the Commons and the Lords is hung?
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.
I'd go further and say there's a very good chance the Conservative Party is finished as well. I have a hunch Farage will go, UKIP will elect someone much smarter and the Tories will face an existential crisis across England...
I wonder if Farage will sacrifice himself, like Salmond, and let UKIP do the "Doctor Who" trick (regenerating with the same core policies underneath, but with a fresher and more attractive face to pull in new voters).
Will the pro-business, internationalist, liberal, pro-immigration Europhile centrists and the traditional, nationalist, eurosceptics ever be reconciled?
I think you will find it is the Eurosceptics who are the internationalists.
The EU is both inward looking and protectionist. There is little about it that could be called internationalist.
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.
I'd go further and say there's a very good chance the Conservative Party is finished as well. I have a hunch Farage will go, UKIP will elect someone much smarter and the Tories will face an existential crisis across England...
I wonder if Farage will sacrifice himself, like Salmond, and let UKIP do the "Doctor Who" trick (regenerating with the same core policies underneath, but with a fresher and more attractive face to pull in new voters).
He might well stand down and concentrate on all that lucrative money he get's as a UKIP MEP.
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.
I'd go further and say there's a very good chance the Conservative Party is finished as well. I have a hunch Farage will go, UKIP will elect someone much smarter and the Tories will face an existential crisis across England...
It would be wise to realign politics on the lines I illustrate above. But it probably won't happen
Not sure what I'm more nervous for tomorrow... the election results, or my dentist appointment (cries)
Have you voted ? Are you in the UK ?
Am home, yep! So will drop my postal ballot off in person.
Vote Remain, and I'll do regular AV threads.
Ooooooo!
And Mike's got another holiday coming up in a few months.
Don't tempt me, TSE!
Still, even if I do vote Leave, I'm not obsessed, and so my membership of our party should be okay.
The fun and games after a close result will come when the EU does something that Remain has told us cannot, will not happen. Lots of Remainer Remorse, lots of anger.
And you just KNOW it will happen. Weeks, rather than months.
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.
I'd go further and say there's a very good chance the Conservative Party is finished as well. I have a hunch Farage will go, UKIP will elect someone much smarter and the Tories will face an existential crisis across England...
I wonder if Farage will sacrifice himself, like Salmond, and let UKIP do the "Doctor Who" trick (regenerating with the same core policies underneath, but with a fresher and more attractive face to pull in new voters).
Will the pro-business, internationalist, liberal, pro-immigration Europhile centrists and the traditional, nationalist, eurosceptics ever be reconciled?
I think you will find it is the Eurosceptics who are the internationalists.
The EU is both inward looking and protectionist. There is little about it that could be called internationalist.
What about the fact that it's a union of more than two dozen different nations?
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.
I'd go further and say there's a very good chance the Conservative Party is finished as well. I have a hunch Farage will go, UKIP will elect someone much smarter and the Tories will face an existential crisis across England...
I wonder if Farage will sacrifice himself, like Salmond, and let UKIP do the "Doctor Who" trick (regenerating with the same core policies underneath, but with a fresher and more attractive face to pull in new voters).
Can't believe the national broadcaster, via news night, has just aired a 10min documentary style feature on the Boris-Cam historic rivalry! Narrated in sombre tones by Michael Cockerell, its aim was to make the viewer feel as if they wete watching a portrayal of some long gone political drama, a story where the villain was assumed to be known by him/her. No need for spoiler alert for those who haven't seen! I'm a leftie but can empathise with tories re beeb taking the fecking piss!
Will the pro-business, internationalist, liberal, pro-immigration Europhile centrists and the traditional, nationalist, eurosceptics ever be reconciled?
I think you will find it is the Eurosceptics who are the internationalists.
The EU is both inward looking and protectionist. There is little about it that could be called internationalist.
Can't believe the national broadcaster, via news night, has just aired a 10min documentary style feature on the Boris-Cam historic rivalry! Narrated in sombre tones by Michael Cockerell, its aim was to make the viewer feel as if they wete watching a portrayal of some long gone political drama, a story where the villain was assumed to be known by him/her. No need for spoiler alert for those who haven't seen! I'm a leftie but can empathise with tories re beeb taking the fecking piss!
Tell me about it. Could have done it next week, given this is literally the last chance they get to talk about the issues for the referendum!!
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.
I'd go further and say there's a very good chance the Conservative Party is finished as well. I have a hunch Farage will go, UKIP will elect someone much smarter and the Tories will face an existential crisis across England...
I wonder if Farage will sacrifice himself, like Salmond, and let UKIP do the "Doctor Who" trick (regenerating with the same core policies underneath, but with a fresher and more attractive face to pull in new voters).
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.
I think I hear the sound of flapping white coats
Sean's analysis is bang on the money of what happens in the event that REMAIN wins narrowly. In fact it could be a little too conservative in the terms of the sh*t storm that's going to be unleashed on the Conservative Party over the next few months.
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.
The huge flaw in that analysis is that it assumes that the EU is the primary issue for Conservative voters and members, and that they divide neatly into two strongly-opposed groups on the subject. Both assumptions are wrong in my experience; most Conservatives are mildly unhappy with the EU. When they lean towards Brexit, they don't necessarily see it as without risk and downside, and when they lean in the other direction, they recognise the faults in the EU and are frustrated by them.
In practice, most Conservatives will accept whatever the result of tomorrow turns out to be.
(You've also glossed over the fact that a lot of traditionally 'left-wing' voters are voting Leave).
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.
An excellent summary
In your wildest dreams. More likely they have placed the Tory Party in the Europhile, pro-business, pro-London centre ground
Quite right. Exactly the same was said about Labour and unilateralism in the 1980s. In the end one side won, a settlement was reached, the losers shrugged their shoulders and everyone moved on.
Most of you will probably find this an odd analogy, but I always think of immigration as being rather like medication. The correct amount of medication is beneficial to the patient. Too little, or too much can be harmful (e.g. digitalis).
I don't think that when the founding fathers put "Freedom of Movement" into the DNA of the EU that they ever imagined that there would be migration on a scale large enough to cause concern to host communities.
Most of you will probably find this an odd analogy, but I always think of immigration as being rather like medication. The correct amount of medication is beneficial to the patient. Too little, or too much can be harmful (e.g. digitalis).
I don't think that when the founding fathers put "Freedom of Movement" into the DNA of the EU that they ever imagined that there would be migration on a scale large enough to cause concern to host communities.
I do not like the way that Farage has been vilified, especially towards the end of this campaign.
What? seriously as a centr right leaver, he deserved it. That poster was disgusting because he was conflating the issue of refugees with freedom of movement, as well as him saying if we stay it will lead to more sex attacks etc.
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.
I'd go further and say there's a very good chance the Conservative Party is finished as well. I have a hunch Farage will go, UKIP will elect someone much smarter and the Tories will face an existential crisis across England...
I wonder if Farage will sacrifice himself, like Salmond, and let UKIP do the "Doctor Who" trick (regenerating with the same core policies underneath, but with a fresher and more attractive face to pull in new voters).
Will the pro-business, internationalist, liberal, pro-immigration Europhile centrists and the traditional, nationalist, eurosceptics ever be reconciled?
I think you will find it is the Eurosceptics who are the internationalists.
The EU is both inward looking and protectionist. There is little about it that could be called internationalist.
Most of Leave's voters are anti-internationalist
If you sound like little Englanders your leaders are chauvinists and your campaign was xenophobic even a blind man on a galloping camel would laugh at your description of yourselves as 'internatonaists'
Peter from Putney's tip on the 1% margin is looking like it might be value. Might as well make money in the event that we end up with the worst possible result!
Whatever the result please at least make it decisive so it is clear cut no grey area or argument. This knife edge stuff is not going to solve anything and if it's just a tiny majority for remain then even worse.
I worry that a 51-49 is going to end up in court one way or the other. The campaigns have both been a disgrace to democracy with bogus statistics, baseless scaremongering and abuse of process.
I have my side, but would much rather it were a decisive 55-45 either way than a very marginal result. Also hoping for high turnout to add legitimacy.
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.
I'd go further and say there's a very good chance the Conservative Party is finished as well. I have a hunch Farage will go, UKIP will elect someone much smarter and the Tories will face an existential crisis across England...
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.
An excellent summary
In your wildest dreams. More likely they have placed the Tory Party in the Europhile, pro-business, pro-London centre ground
That's a very narrow ground that Leaves millions of voters looking elsewhere.
Europe is one issue...It's really not the be all and end all to most voters in non referendum times. You let your dislike of Cameron blind you a little I think. Anyway lets see what happens. If Leave wins it probably won't matter anyway.
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.
The huge flaw in that analysis is that it assumes that the EU is the primary issue for Conservative voters and members, and that they divide neatly into two strongly-opposed groups on the subject. Both assumptions are wrong in my experience; most Conservatives are mildly unhappy with the EU. When they lean towards Brexit, they don't necessarily see it as without risk and downside, and when they lean in the other direction, they recognise the faults in the EU and are frustrated by them.
In practice, most Conservatives will accept whatever the result of tomorrow turns out to be.
(You've also glossed over the fact that a lot of traditionally 'left-wing' voters are voting Leave).
When you have one group of Conservatives on this site accusing Vote Leave of being partially responsible for the murder of Jo Cox, I'd say that's a division that won't be reconciled easily.
Most of you will probably find this an odd analogy, but I always think of immigration as being rather like medication. The correct amount of medication is beneficial to the patient. Too little, or too much can be harmful (e.g. digitalis).
I don't think that when the founding fathers put "Freedom of Movement" into the DNA of the EU that they ever imagined that there would be migration on a scale large enough to cause concern to host communities.
Quite. Thing is that it is now written in stone as an ancient wisdom that we must follow though we know not why...
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.
The huge flaw in that analysis is that it assumes that the EU is the primary issue for Conservative voters and members, and that they divide neatly into two strongly-opposed groups on the subject. Both assumptions are wrong in my experience; most Conservatives are mildly unhappy with the EU. When they lean towards Brexit, they don't necessarily see it as without risk and downside, and when they lean in the other direction, they recognise the faults in the EU and are frustrated by them.
In practice, most Conservatives will accept whatever the result of tomorrow turns out to be.
(You've also glossed over the fact that a lot of traditionally 'left-wing' voters are voting Leave).
A one-nation, Leave Tory leader would get 40%+ in the next election.
A remainer who fails to lance the Osborne problem will make it TCTC - even with Corbyn.
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.
An excellent summary
In your wildest dreams. More likely they have placed the Tory Party in the Europhile, pro-business, pro-London centre ground
If we do vote Remain, the membership will probably choose the most eurosceptic of the two they get to vote on.
Worked well with IDS.....
As a card carrying Tory who voted UKIP in 2015 (the Tories had no chance in Liverpool). I will be voting soley on Europe - the Cameroon pursuit of power for powers sake is pointless. No tackling of the deficit, no BBC reform, broken immigration pledges and no real significant tax reform.
Most of you will probably find this an odd analogy, but I always think of immigration as being rather like medication. The correct amount of medication is beneficial to the patient. Too little, or too much can be harmful (e.g. digitalis).
I don't think that when the founding fathers put "Freedom of Movement" into the DNA of the EU that they ever imagined that there would be migration on a scale large enough to cause concern to host communities.
It's not odd at all, it sounds like common sense to me. Most people wouldn't have a problem with 50,000 migrants a year like we had in the 60s-90s.
ITV weather for London showing heavy rain, thunder and lightning for tomorrow.
It is tanking it down here and my girlfriend in Clapham phoned to say she hasn't heard rain so heavy in England before (she is not of these islands). Plenty of lightning thown in too.
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.
I'd go further and say there's a very good chance the Conservative Party is finished as well. I have a hunch Farage will go, UKIP will elect someone much smarter and the Tories will face an existential crisis across England...
Conservative Party finished? I don't think so.
I don't think so either, nevertheless I do wonder if the next realignment will see us go full circle from the original replacement of the Liberals with Labour, this time seeing the rebirth of the Liberals and the demise of the Conservatives. It all depends on which side of the Tory party wins the coming civil war.
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.
I'd go further and say there's a very good chance the Conservative Party is finished as well. I have a hunch Farage will go, UKIP will elect someone much smarter and the Tories will face an existential crisis across England...
Conservative Party finished? I don't think so.
It came very close with Tony... But it endured because there was nothing credible on the right.
All it needs is for UKIP to get serious and the Tories are in very, very serious trouble, especially when the EU starts rolling back on Cameron's silly renegotiation as well as coming for more even more sovereignty and money from us, which we all know they will.
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.
I'd go further and say there's a very good chance the Conservative Party is finished as well. I have a hunch Farage will go, UKIP will elect someone much smarter and the Tories will face an existential crisis across England...
Conservative Party finished? I don't think so.
Indeed. The moderate Cameroon Europhile Tory Party will be a formidable force.
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.
I'd go further and say there's a very good chance the Conservative Party is finished as well. I have a hunch Farage will go, UKIP will elect someone much smarter and the Tories will face an existential crisis across England...
Conservative Party finished? I don't think so.
The Tory party are really the experts at regenerating in Whovian style. Mixture of institutional memory, their historical basis in pragmatism (rather than having some underlying ideological underpinning that defines and may ultimately doom them), the rich (in multiple senses) and deeply rooted kind of coalition that they're built from.
UKIP on the other hand look more and more like the Farage Party, especially after the Unresignation. I thought the Salmond comparison very apt. UKIP had great chances - and their best one may lie in the next few weeks and months - but the way they are structured may mean they'll never take them.
Peter from Putney's tip on the 1% margin is looking like it might be value. Might as well make money in the event that we end up with the worst possible result!
Whatever the result please at least make it decisive so it is clear cut no grey area or argument. This knife edge stuff is not going to solve anything and if it's just a tiny majority for remain then even worse.
I worry that a 51-49 is going to end up in court one way or the other. The campaigns have both been a disgrace to democracy with bogus statistics, baseless scaremongering and abuse of process.
I have my side, but would much rather it were a decisive 55-45 either way than a very marginal result. Also hoping for high turnout to add legitimacy.
Not our style.
At least, not this Little Englander's style.
Who knows - there are a lot of metropolitan lawyers.
I wonder if UKIP could get the mother of all boosts if it is say a 49.5-50.5 defeat as my model suggests....
Agree, UKIP's best result in terms of their future as a party would be England: Leave, UK: Remain. In fact England & Wales: Leave and UK: Remain would be even better for them.
When you have one group of Conservatives on this site accusing Vote Leave of being partially responsible for the murder of Jo Cox, I'd say that's a division that won't be reconciled easily.
I really don't think a single one of my friends and acquaintances in the party are accusing anyone of anything, and certainly not that. Nor, for that matter, do I recognise this alleged anger against Cameron. The reaction from strong Leavers I know to some of his more imaginative arguments has been 'He would say that, wouldn't he?' rather than 'How dare he say that!'. And similarly in the other direction regarding claims by Boris or Michael Gove.
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.
I think I hear the sound of flapping white coats
Sean's analysis is bang on the money of what happens in the event that REMAIN wins narrowly. In fact it could be a little too conservative in the terms of the sh*t storm that's going to be unleashed on the Conservative Party over the next few months.
Maybe but I doubt it. The Tory Party always rally round their leader. My guess is that Cameron will fire Gove and Boris and other coat flappers and appoint a new cabinet and then patronage will set in
Betfair have a disconnect of about 6/1 between Trump as president and Republican as president. That gap is either him being overthrown at the Convention, or taken out in some literal or metaphorical way between now and Novenmer.
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.
I think I hear the sound of flapping white coats
Sean's analysis is bang on the money of what happens in the event that REMAIN wins narrowly. In fact it could be a little too conservative in the terms of the sh*t storm that's going to be unleashed on the Conservative Party over the next few months.
Maybe but I doubt it. The Tory Party always rally round their leader. My guess is that Cameron will fire Gove and Boris and other coat flappers and appoint a new cabinet and then patronage will set in
ITV weather for London showing heavy rain, thunder and lightning for tomorrow.
It is tanking it down here and my girlfriend in Clapham phoned to say she hasn't heard rain so heavy in England before (she is not of these islands). Plenty of lightning thown in too.
Sat overlooking the houses of Parliament and the rain is starting to come down more heavily here now. Started about 2 hours ago. Clapham being just down the road of course means that heavy burst should get here pretty quick. How long will it last though? ITV local London thinks all of tomorrow and very heavy with bells and whistles.
Peter from Putney's tip on the 1% margin is looking like it might be value. Might as well make money in the event that we end up with the worst possible result!
Whatever the result please at least make it decisive so it is clear cut no grey area or argument. This knife edge stuff is not going to solve anything and if it's just a tiny majority for remain then even worse.
I worry that a 51-49 is going to end up in court one way or the other. The campaigns have both been a disgrace to democracy with bogus statistics, baseless scaremongering and abuse of process.
I have my side, but would much rather it were a decisive 55-45 either way than a very marginal result. Also hoping for high turnout to add legitimacy.
Not our style.
At least, not this Little Englander's style.
Who knows - there are a lot of metropolitan lawyers.
It's hard to see any reason to involve the Courts as it's purely advisory.
ITV weather for London showing heavy rain, thunder and lightning for tomorrow.
Not good for us Remainers.
London is not an island, if it rains in London at some point tomorrow it probably will elsewhere in the UK too
No, forecast I saw said v heavy rain and thunderstorms for London, Greater London, parts of south coast, Kent etc. Rest of England ok. Showers in Scotland.
ITV weather for London showing heavy rain, thunder and lightning for tomorrow.
It is tanking it down here and my girlfriend in Clapham phoned to say she hasn't heard rain so heavy in England before (she is not of these islands). Plenty of lightning thown in too.
Sat overlooking the houses of Parliament and the rain is starting to come down more heavily here now. Started about 2 hours ago. Clapham being just down the road of course means that heavy burst should get here pretty quick. How long will it last though? ITV local London thinks all of tomorrow and very heavy with bells and whistles.
Mmmm....
There's something in the air. It's all very Martin Sheen and Dire Straits (West Wing fans will know what I mean).
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.
I'd go further and say there's a very good chance the Conservative Party is finished as well. I have a hunch Farage will go, UKIP will elect someone much smarter and the Tories will face an existential crisis across England...
Conservative Party finished? I don't think so.
It came very close with Tony... But it endured because there was nothing credible on the right.
All it needs is for UKIP to get serious and the Tories are in very, very serious trouble, especially when the EU starts rolling back on Cameron's silly renegotiation as well as coming for more even more sovereignty and money from us, which we all know they will.
UKIP are too divisive, and like it or not there is a stigma attached to voting for them. Many Tories wouldn't touch them with a bargepole.
A bit of an over-reaction to these latest polls, I think. As has been the case fairly consistently, phone polls are generally better for Remain, but nothing here alters the overall picture that Remain seem to be ahead only by a smidgen, and it could easily go either way. Whilst I think it likely that the phone polls are more accurate that the online polls, because of the self-select bias in the latter, this is an untested hypothesis and one shouldn't place too much confidence in it.
So, whilst my central forecast remains a narrow Remain victory - perhaps 52% or 53% - I don't think we should be surprised by any result within a few points of that.
50.5% is my best guess.
Posted my prediction on the VoteUK forum earlier: also 50.5% Remain.
Most of you will probably find this an odd analogy, but I always think of immigration as being rather like medication. The correct amount of medication is beneficial to the patient. Too little, or too much can be harmful (e.g. digitalis).
I don't think that when the founding fathers put "Freedom of Movement" into the DNA of the EU that they ever imagined that there would be migration on a scale large enough to cause concern to host communities.
Much like the UN Convention on refugees. Both need revisiting for the 21st century.
Peter from Putney's tip on the 1% margin is looking like it might be value. Might as well make money in the event that we end up with the worst possible result!
Whatever the result please at least make it decisive so it is clear cut no grey area or argument. This knife edge stuff is not going to solve anything and if it's just a tiny majority for remain then even worse.
I worry that a 51-49 is going to end up in court one way or the other. The campaigns have both been a disgrace to democracy with bogus statistics, baseless scaremongering and abuse of process.
I have my side, but would much rather it were a decisive 55-45 either way than a very marginal result. Also hoping for high turnout to add legitimacy.
If it's really close either way if the shit hits the fan in the next couple of years it will open all this up again. Cameron hoped to win 60:40 and the issue be dead for a generation.
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.
I think I hear the sound of flapping white coats
Sean's analysis is bang on the money of what happens in the event that REMAIN wins narrowly. In fact it could be a little too conservative in the terms of the sh*t storm that's going to be unleashed on the Conservative Party over the next few months.
Maybe but I doubt it. The Tory Party always rally round their leader. My guess is that Cameron will fire Gove and Boris and other coat flappers and appoint a new cabinet and then patronage will set in
He can't The whole point of the Conservative coalition is to keep the B'Stards on side.
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.
I'd go further and say there's a very good chance the Conservative Party is finished as well. I have a hunch Farage will go, UKIP will elect someone much smarter and the Tories will face an existential crisis across England...
Conservative Party finished? I don't think so.
It came very close with Tony... But it endured because there was nothing credible on the right.
All it needs is for UKIP to get serious and the Tories are in very, very serious trouble, especially when the EU starts rolling back on Cameron's silly renegotiation as well as coming for more even more sovereignty and money from us, which we all know they will.
there is a stigma attached to voting for them.
Sounds like the Tories 1994-2007 (and, in some circles, all of the time).
ITV weather for London showing heavy rain, thunder and lightning for tomorrow.
Not good for us Remainers.
London is not an island, if it rains in London at some point tomorrow it probably will elsewhere in the UK too
But are you willing to bet Remainers will be more likely to brave it than Leavers?
Forecast from Sky News is storms over East Anglia and London and the South East in the morning but easing by the afternoon and elsewhere reasonably dry so unless you can only vote in the morning and live in the South should not make much difference
Most of you will probably find this an odd analogy, but I always think of immigration as being rather like medication. The correct amount of medication is beneficial to the patient. Too little, or too much can be harmful (e.g. digitalis).
I don't think that when the founding fathers put "Freedom of Movement" into the DNA of the EU that they ever imagined that there would be migration on a scale large enough to cause concern to host communities.
Much like the UN Convention on refugees. Both need revisiting for the 21st century.
When a lot of this stuff was written the vast majority of people never left their village their whole lives nor knew that much beyond it, be it in the UK or Africa.
Peter from Putney's tip on the 1% margin is looking like it might be value. Might as well make money in the event that we end up with the worst possible result!
Whatever the result please at least make it decisive so it is clear cut no grey area or argument. This knife edge stuff is not going to solve anything and if it's just a tiny majority for remain then even worse.
I worry that a 51-49 is going to end up in court one way or the other. The campaigns have both been a disgrace to democracy with bogus statistics, baseless scaremongering and abuse of process.
I have my side, but would much rather it were a decisive 55-45 either way than a very marginal result. Also hoping for high turnout to add legitimacy.
Not our style.
At least, not this Little Englander's style.
Who knows - there are a lot of metropolitan lawyers.
Agree completely it's not our *usual* style - but have you ever seen such a vicious campaign before?
We're expecting 31-32m votes, if it's within 1% I just can't see the losing side accepting the result after all that's happened in the campaigns.
I did ask, as did others, the other day if there was provision for a recount on the night or safe storage of ballot papers in the event of a challenge, but no-one could give a definitive answer.
Comments
If it is outside this bound the polls were definitely wrong.
Or something
The thing about immigration is though, that even the remainers I know think it is outrageously high so clearly it isn't about immigration but the vast and unknown scale.
How is Parliament not going to be completely logjammed after this vote, if half a dozen Tory rebels can sink any bill in the Commons and the Lords is hung?
You are mistaking clinging to nurse for seizing the centre ground.
The EU is both inward looking and protectionist. There is little about it that could be called internationalist.
And you just KNOW it will happen. Weeks, rather than months.
No need for spoiler alert for those who haven't seen!
I'm a leftie but can empathise with tories re beeb taking the fecking piss!
In practice, most Conservatives will accept whatever the result of tomorrow turns out to be.
(You've also glossed over the fact that a lot of traditionally 'left-wing' voters are voting Leave).
The correct amount of medication is beneficial to the patient. Too little, or too much can be harmful (e.g. digitalis).
I don't think that when the founding fathers put "Freedom of Movement" into the DNA of the EU that they ever imagined that there would be migration on a scale large enough to cause concern to host communities.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/745733029289615361
EDIT: And YellowSub too.
I have my side, but would much rather it were a decisive 55-45 either way than a very marginal result. Also hoping for high turnout to add legitimacy.
A remainer who fails to lance the Osborne problem will make it TCTC - even with Corbyn.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/donald-trumps-political-suicide-mission/2016/06/22/40b55a28-3876-11e6-9ccd-d6005beac8b3_story.html?hpid=hp_no-name_opinion-card-b:homepage/story
All it needs is for UKIP to get serious and the Tories are in very, very serious trouble, especially when the EU starts rolling back on Cameron's silly renegotiation as well as coming for more even more sovereignty and money from us, which we all know they will.
And I don't write that as a supporter...
UKIP on the other hand look more and more like the Farage Party, especially after the Unresignation. I thought the Salmond comparison very apt. UKIP had great chances - and their best one may lie in the next few weeks and months - but the way they are structured may mean they'll never take them.
At least, not this Little Englander's style.
Who knows - there are a lot of metropolitan lawyers.
Mmmm....
I dont know if that makes sense-the issue is immigration.
I thought moving out to 4.7 was odd - started using money I wasn't planning on wagering. But I proved too cowardly to take full advantage, as ever.
Stigmas can be removed.
GOP choice. Cyanide-pill or hara-kiri?
[if you believe the MSM]
We're expecting 31-32m votes, if it's within 1% I just can't see the losing side accepting the result after all that's happened in the campaigns.
I did ask, as did others, the other day if there was provision for a recount on the night or safe storage of ballot papers in the event of a challenge, but no-one could give a definitive answer.