It means I can follow my heart and vote LEAVE, safe in the knowledge that it won't harm my personal finances (via London property etc), and the rest of the country will go REMAIN.
At the same time, I will then have the moral high ground thereafter, and be fully entitled to hurl appalling abuse and accusations of *traitor!!* at anyone who voted REMAIN, when the EU decides to come for the rest of our sovereignty - which, be assured, they will. They really really will.
I'm kinda different.
The better Leave are doing, the more enthused I am about voting for and advocating it. Just don't feel the fear, really. Just the hope.
I don't doubt for a moment by the way that these substantial pockets of ex industrial Brexit Britain exist. I think we're going to see some incredible stark localised results. My question is whether they've been over sampled in coverage due to ( a ) a quest for novelty ( b ) a quest for authenticity ( c ) right wing Brexiters appropriation of them as AstroTurf.
Remain was always favourite but you get the feeling the general public appetite for the EU is about as high as a 2p coin is deep.
By the way, Wales, we'll see you in Paris this weekend and we are likely to win.
It's a bit silly reading so much into these last two polls just because they were the last two to be published. We could have had Opinium and TNS tonight and YouGov and ComRes earlier.
It's a bit silly reading so much into polls full stop.
Unless you've forgotten May 2015.
No, I just don't let it slow me down, I'm hoping to be a pundit one day, so I need to be totally wrong most of the time but still act like I will always be right next time.
The overall picture from polling is that it's still on a knife-edge.
It was in 2015- but the betting markets called the Tories. Follow the cash.
I'm sorry (not) if I'm being repetitive, but I'm just having too much fun.
I got better odds on Tory maj on the eve of the poll in 2015 than I've just got on Remain.
What odds did you get on Labour largest party 2015? Just remind me. Or 1992 for that matter. Next........
What are you on about?
Tory majority bet WON in 2015. Despite the betting markets not calling it.
Do I have to spell this out....despite the average of polls in 2015 calling Labour the largest party, the betting markets called the Tories as the largest.
Very few people called a Tory majority....but to be clear the betting markets were much closer to a Tory majority than the polls.
So you're saying that polls and markets were wrong? Thought so, thanks.
Right direction, wrong magnitude is what I think tyson is saying.
It is not just the betting markets, the currency and stockmarkets point that way too.
Doesn't really work as an argument for binary choice though.
Oh, come on, this as close as ComRes have had it bar last week.
Eve of poll:- Survation 1% Remain, Com Res 6% Remain, Yougov 2% Remain, Opinium 1% Leave, TNS 2% Leave or 7% Leave. Either a 1% average lead for Remain or a Tie.
The overall picture from polling is that it's still on a knife-edge.
It was in 2015- but the betting markets called the Tories. Follow the cash.
I'm sorry (not) if I'm being repetitive, but I'm just having too much fun.
I got better odds on Tory maj on the eve of the poll in 2015 than I've just got on Remain.
What odds did you get on Labour largest party 2015? Just remind me. Or 1992 for that matter. Next........
What are you on about?
Tory majority bet WON in 2015. Despite the betting markets not calling it.
Do I have to spell this out....despite the average of polls in 2015 calling Labour the largest party, the betting markets called the Tories as the largest.
Very few people called a Tory majority....but to be clear the betting markets were much closer to a Tory majority than the polls.
So you're saying that polls and markets were wrong? Thought so, thanks.
Right direction, wrong magnitude is what I think tyson is saying.
It is not just the betting markets, the currency and stockmarkets point that way too.
Fox.....I remember your foreboding at 2015 GE about voter registration. Considering an extra 2m or more have been registered for the referendum, it seems you were right all along.
You don't make that point when ICM finds similar findings but has Leave ahead.
Curious.
Do ICM have that online?
You keep avoiding the obvious - they phone up in a rush to collect a poll, get Labour voting grads and get these results.
The research constantly points to it.
In some of their online polls, but has been a consistent pattern in their phone polls, the country seems to remember voting in a Labour majority in 2015.
I'm not avoiding anything obvious, that's why the ORB phone poll was so interesting.
It means I can follow my heart and vote LEAVE, safe in the knowledge that it won't harm my personal finances (via London property etc), and the rest of the country will go REMAIN.
At the same time, I will then have the moral high ground thereafter, and be fully entitled to hurl appalling abuse and accusations of *traitor!!* at anyone who voted REMAIN, when the EU decides to come for the rest of our sovereignty - which, be assured, they will. They really really will.
I'm kinda different.
The better Leave are doing, the more enthused I am about voting for and advocating it. Just don't feel the fear, really. Just the hope.
But maybe I'm unusual.
I fear a Remain win. If the EU was crap before the referendum, it is going to be even more crap for us if the country has just voted to remain.
This was the only chance for Britain to be free,we are finished as a free democratic nation.
Superstate on way.
Chill. We will get a second bite, when the eurozone Federalises - which it will have to.
I rather wonder if we will slowly leave the EU without any big voting moment, but incrementally.
We are already and officially peripheral.
It is not just us in the EU but outside the eurozone, Sweden, Denmark, Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic are in the same position. Don't forget too EUref is just the first round of rising anti EU populism, the EU establishment may survive this round, they have to hold off Wilders and Le Pen in the Dutch and French elections too next year and the AfD in Germany. They may do but they are bound to be battered and bruised along the way, maybe beyond repair!
Remain was always favourite but you get the feeling the general public appetite for the EU is about as high as a 2p coin is deep.
By the way, Wales, we'll see you in Paris this weekend and we are likely to win.
It's a bit silly reading so much into these last two polls just because they were the last two to be published. We could have had Opinium and TNS tonight and YouGov and ComRes earlier.
Well said.
Incidentally I haven't made a final decision how to vote yet. Everyone I know is voting Remain which is difficult to ignore completely.
Blimey - my decision to go from Reluctant Remain to Firm Leave happened just around Obama's *back of the queue* threat.
It got right under my skin. My inner How Very Dare You took hold - being lectured by a bloke from the USA on why we shouldn't regain our independence crystallised my views.
Hope you decide which way to go after a good night's sleep.
The overall picture from polling is that it's still on a knife-edge.
It was in 2015- but the betting markets called the Tories. Follow the cash.
I'm sorry (not) if I'm being repetitive, but I'm just having too much fun.
I got better odds on Tory maj on the eve of the poll in 2015 than I've just got on Remain.
What odds did you get on Labour largest party 2015? Just remind me. Or 1992 for that matter. Next........
What are you on about?
Tory majority bet WON in 2015. Despite the betting markets not calling it.
Do I have to spell this out....despite the average of polls in 2015 calling Labour the largest party, the betting markets called the Tories as the largest.
Very few people called a Tory majority....but to be clear the betting markets were much closer to a Tory majority than the polls.
So you're saying that polls and markets were wrong? Thought so, thanks.
Right direction, wrong magnitude is what I think tyson is saying.
It is not just the betting markets, the currency and stockmarkets point that way too.
Doesn't really work as an argument for binary choice though.
I'm sorry - all I'm saying is that the betting markets get the direction of travel. If they were accurate about how much that travel is we would all be very rich indeed.
But the polls have had 2 major disasters where they didn't even get the direction of travel right....1992, and 2015.
If Brexit wins, it would be a first......because all the betting markets have called the direction to remain, and quite frankly have never wavered.
This was the only chance for Britain to be free,we are finished as a free democratic nation.
Superstate on way.
Chill. We will get a second bite, when the eurozone Federalises - which it will have to.
I rather wonder if we will slowly leave the EU without any big voting moment, but incrementally.
We are already and officially peripheral.
If we do ever get another voting chance(most unlikely)with the population change of more Europeans coming to live here in great numbers,what difference will these people edge the vote for remain forever.
Remain was always favourite but you get the feeling the general public appetite for the EU is about as high as a 2p coin is deep.
By the way, Wales, we'll see you in Paris this weekend and we are likely to win.
It's a bit silly reading so much into these last two polls just because they were the last two to be published. We could have had Opinium and TNS tonight and YouGov and ComRes earlier.
Well said.
Incidentally I haven't made a final decision how to vote yet. Everyone I know is voting Remain which is difficult to ignore completely.
Blimey - my decision to go from Reluctant Remain to Firm Leave happened just around Obama's *back of the queue* threat.
It got right under my skin. My inner How Very Dare You took hold - being lectured by a bloke from the USA on why we shouldn't regain our independence crystallised my views.
Hope you decide which way to go after a good night's sleep.
Remain was always favourite but you get the feeling the general public appetite for the EU is about as high as a 2p coin is deep.
By the way, Wales, we'll see you in Paris this weekend and we are likely to win.
It's a bit silly reading so much into these last two polls just because they were the last two to be published. We could have had Opinium and TNS tonight and YouGov and ComRes earlier.
Well said.
Incidentally I haven't made a final decision how to vote yet. Everyone I know is voting Remain which is difficult to ignore completely.
Blimey - my decision to go from Reluctant Remain to Firm Leave happened just around Obama's *back of the queue* threat.
It got right under my skin. My inner How Very Dare You took hold - being lectured by a bloke from the USA on why we shouldn't regain our independence crystallised my views.
Hope you decide which way to go after a good night's sleep.
If Leave do manage to lose this, then it will be because they tried to turn it into a protest vote about immigration. I'm not saying that the British love immigrants, it's just that historically they've held in low esteem politicians who've tried to exploit that issue for their own ends.
Remain was always favourite but you get the feeling the general public appetite for the EU is about as high as a 2p coin is deep.
By the way, Wales, we'll see you in Paris this weekend and we are likely to win.
It's a bit silly reading so much into these last two polls just because they were the last two to be published. We could have had Opinium and TNS tonight and YouGov and ComRes earlier.
Well said.
Incidentally I haven't made a final decision how to vote yet. Everyone I know is voting Remain which is difficult to ignore completely.
Blimey - my decision to go from Reluctant Remain to Firm Leave happened just around Obama's *back of the queue* threat.
It got right under my skin. My inner How Very Dare You took hold - being lectured by a bloke from the USA on why we shouldn't regain our independence crystallised my views.
Hope you decide which way to go after a good night's sleep.
Oh, come on, this as close as ComRes have had it bar last week.
Eve of poll:- Survation 1% Remain, Com Res 6% Remain, Yougov 2% Remain, Opinium 1% Leave, TNS 2% Leave or 7% Leave. Either a 1% average lead for Remain or a Tie.
Quite. UNless the phone polls really are that much better, it's a wide spread, and on a even field I say Leave do it.
Remain was always favourite but you get the feeling the general public appetite for the EU is about as high as a 2p coin is deep.
By the way, Wales, we'll see you in Paris this weekend and we are likely to win.
It's a bit silly reading so much into these last two polls just because they were the last two to be published. We could have had Opinium and TNS tonight and YouGov and ComRes earlier.
Well said.
Incidentally I haven't made a final decision how to vote yet. Everyone I know is voting Remain which is difficult to ignore completely.
Blimey - my decision to go from Reluctant Remain to Firm Leave happened just around Obama's *back of the queue* threat.
It got right under my skin. My inner How Very Dare You took hold - being lectured by a bloke from the USA on why we shouldn't regain our independence crystallised my views.
Hope you decide which way to go after a good night's sleep.
You , a reluctant Remain ? Pull the other one.
I cannot say I recall the way everyone used to think, but sudden shifts can occur - I was a reluctant remainer 2 years ago, arguing with whinging UKIPers who thought they'd lose a referendum.
He had a good point, well made. The EU has cemented parliamentary democracy across most of the continent.
It would be welcome if it introduced it for itself, which would improve accountability, relevance and mandate.
The Commission president is now subject to a vote by the Parliament, making the EU a more effective parliamentary democracy than, say, the United States. This process is as democratic as it can be without undermining national sovereignty or engaging in alienating fictions like pan-European political parties. However, the nature of the EU is a mix of democracy, intergovernmental sovereignty and liberalism, without any one element being fully superior to the other. To increase democracy (good) you would have to dial down sovereignty (bad).
If Leave do manage to lose this, then it will be because they tried to turn it into a protest vote about immigration. I'm not saying that the British love immigrants, it's just that historically they've held in low esteem politicians who've tried to exploit that issue for their own ends.
Oh FFS make up your minds, one minute it's the economy next its immigation.
The only thing this has shown is that the remains campaign is a bigger shambles than Leaves
So the phone/online gap is back - or perhaps just more obvious. At the 2015 GE, the phone polls understated the Tory lead while the online ones *really* understated it. If - and it's a big if - it's anything similar, then Remain would be on for about a 55-45 win.
The old will be for leave though, in Scotland they were for Remain and they turnout more than the young. The middle classes also turnout more and are for Remain but I expect the high older voter turnout to make the final result a shade nearer 50%-50% than 55%-45% though Remain should win
True. IIRC, the difference was that the 65+ segment was unduly weighted towards the 65-74 and didn't have enough 75+. If that's still the case (and it shouldn't be but not all faults get fixed even after diagnosis) then it'd pull the Remain lead down, as you say.
If Leave do manage to lose this, then it will be because they tried to turn it into a protest vote about immigration. I'm not saying that the British love immigrants, it's just that historically they've held in low esteem politicians who've tried to exploit that issue for their own ends.
Lets see what Labour voters do tomorrow, I suspect a variety of factors (both in and outside the control of Leave) pushed enough of them into Remain.
Remain was always favourite but you get the feeling the general public appetite for the EU is about as high as a 2p coin is deep.
By the way, Wales, we'll see you in Paris this weekend and we are likely to win.
It's a bit silly reading so much into these last two polls just because they were the last two to be published. We could have had Opinium and TNS tonight and YouGov and ComRes earlier.
Well said.
Incidentally I haven't made a final decision how to vote yet. Everyone I know is voting Remain which is difficult to ignore completely.
Blimey - my decision to go from Reluctant Remain to Firm Leave happened just around Obama's *back of the queue* threat.
It got right under my skin. My inner How Very Dare You took hold - being lectured by a bloke from the USA on why we shouldn't regain our independence crystallised my views.
Hope you decide which way to go after a good night's sleep.
You , a reluctant Remain ? Pull the other one.
I always thought Plato was a Cameroon through and through and never imagined she would vote Leave until the past few months, FWIW.
Remain was always favourite but you get the feeling the general public appetite for the EU is about as high as a 2p coin is deep.
By the way, Wales, we'll see you in Paris this weekend and we are likely to win.
It's a bit silly reading so much into these last two polls just because they were the last two to be published. We could have had Opinium and TNS tonight and YouGov and ComRes earlier.
Well said.
Incidentally I haven't made a final decision how to vote yet. Everyone I know is voting Remain which is difficult to ignore completely.
Blimey - my decision to go from Reluctant Remain to Firm Leave happened just around Obama's *back of the queue* threat.
It got right under my skin. My inner How Very Dare You took hold - being lectured by a bloke from the USA on why we shouldn't regain our independence crystallised my views.
Hope you decide which way to go after a good night's sleep.
You , a reluctant Remain ? Pull the other one.
I must admit, I almost choked on my mint humbug when I read that.
Fwiw the Remain activity on Fb seems to have picked up tonight from almost nothing. If it started before tonight I would most certainly be a shy leaver. Without wanting to sound pathetic it is rather intimidating watching tens of people who you socialise with advocating entirely for one thing and shooting down all resistance. Shy leave will be greater than shy remain.
I must explain to my colleagues in Ireland (Republic thereof), England, Spain, Belgium and Germany that since the best team in Europe are sitting this one out, I will be supporting Wales
This may be influenced by my 60/1 betting slip, and 4/1 Bale top scorer
Lot of text on that Bild front page, what's the gist? I see 'Prinz Charles' Ohren(google says german for ears?) and gerbustag dur Queen (surely they have a word for Queen - do they use Queen tm to refer to specifically to Her Majesty - The Queen, not just a queen?
"ComRes for the Daily Mail have topline figures of REMAIN 54%, LEAVE 46%, a widening of the Remain lead after their last poll showing Remain and Leave within a point of each other. ComRes have reallocated don’t knows based on respondents’ views of the impact of Brexit on the economy, which looks like it boosted Remain by a point or so" http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/
Fwiw the Remain activity on Fb seems to have picked up tonight from almost nothing. If it started before tonight I would most certainly be a shy leaver. Without wanting to sound pathetic it is rather intimidating watching tens of people who you socialise with advocating entirely for one thing and shooting down all resistance. Shy leave will be greater than shy remain.
The consensus for LEAVE was so strong over recent weeks that PB comments was practically a safe space.
Oh, come on, this as close as ComRes have had it bar last week.
Eve of poll:- Survation 1% Remain, Com Res 6% Remain, Yougov 2% Remain, Opinium 1% Leave, TNS 2% Leave or 7% Leave. Either a 1% average lead for Remain or a Tie.
Quite. UNless the phone polls really are that much better, it's a wide spread, and on a even field I say Leave do it.
If you like, you can add in Survey Monkey giving 3% for Remain, and Qrious giving 14% for Leave. ORB giving either 7% for Remain or 2%. Yougov giving 2% for Leave or 1% for Remain.
Remain was always favourite but you get the feeling the general public appetite for the EU is about as high as a 2p coin is deep.
By the way, Wales, we'll see you in Paris this weekend and we are likely to win.
It's a bit silly reading so much into these last two polls just because they were the last two to be published. We could have had Opinium and TNS tonight and YouGov and ComRes earlier.
Well said.
Incidentally I haven't made a final decision how to vote yet. Everyone I know is voting Remain which is difficult to ignore completely.
Blimey - my decision to go from Reluctant Remain to Firm Leave happened just around Obama's *back of the queue* threat.
It got right under my skin. My inner How Very Dare You took hold - being lectured by a bloke from the USA on why we shouldn't regain our independence crystallised my views.
Hope you decide which way to go after a good night's sleep.
You , a reluctant Remain ? Pull the other one.
I always thought Plato was a Cameroon through and through and never imagined she would vote Leave until the past few months, FWIW.
I was, and more fool me - I was one of the very few on here who said they'd wait until I saw Cameron's EU deal before writing him off.
And his deal was crap. And then he crapped all over our country's national pride. I want him gone - along with Osborne.
I haven't got a clue what the result will be tomorrow. Then again neither does Dave - and that will leave him curled up overnight clutching his teddy as he has repeated nightmares about his "legacy".
Lot of text on that Bild front page, what's the gist? I see 'Prinz Charles' Ohren(google says german for ears?) and gerbustag dur Queen (surely they have a word for Queen - do they use Queen tm to refer to specifically to Her Majesty - The Queen, not just a queen?
I imagine they must do. German for queen is konigin (I assume: it's definitely konig for king).
Lot of text on that Bild front page, what's the gist? I see 'Prinz Charles' Ohren(google says german for ears?) and gerbustag dur Queen (surely they have a word for Queen - do they use Queen tm to refer to specifically to Her Majesty - The Queen, not just a queen?
No more jokes about Prince Charles' ears. They won't use suncream in solidarity with our sunburn. They won't use a goalkeeper in the next penalty shoot-out with us to make it more interesting. etc.
Why it's time to say goodbye to the EU I can't help thinking it's slightly ironic that I'm writing this. 17 years ago the EU gave me money under the Erasmus scheme to study in Pisa. Gay, 37 years old, in a mixed-race relationship. I really ought to be part of the Remain campaign's core vote but let me explain why I'm not. Firstly, what is this referendum about? I think some in the Remain campaign want it to be a referendum on Boris or Farage but it's not. It's about the European Union. By anyone's standards the EU at the moment is a failing organisation. The disaster that is the Euro has led to an economic crisis across southern Europe, while the mishandling of the migrant crisis has led to a surge in support for the far right. I used to be fairly neutral on the EU until I saw what happened to Greece. There's no doubt Greece contributed to their own problems but they didn't deserve the treatment they have received. I remember summit after summit to "save the Euro" but not a single summit to save the poor Greeks. Greece has now had three bailouts and the fourth is on the way once we have had our vote. If Greece was at least better off that would be something but they have had years of austerity and are running a surplus but have more debt than when they started! The only real winners are the French and German banks who held the initial Greek debt that was bailed out. Frankly the Euro has been a failure for pretty much everyone except the Germans. Only this week the anti-Euro 5 stars party won the mayoralties of Rome and Turin I've heard a few people say we shouldn't worry about sovereignty but the problem is the lack of democracy. We can't vote for any of the 5 presidents (whoever they are) and the EU has a track record of ignoring referendum results it doesn't like. M. Juncker famously said before referendums in France and the Netherlands on the constitution 'if it's a yes we'll say "on we go" and if it's a no we will say "we continue". And that's exactly what happened. I'm not entirely confused if we do vote leave that it will ever happen. One of the arguments made in favour of the EU is that it has brought peace to Europe. I fear that may not last much longer. Recently we have seen the rise of the far left in some countries due to the economic crisis, and the far right in other countries due to the migration crisis. Only recently the far right very nearly won the presidency of Austria. If things carry on as they are, it won't be long before one of these extremist parties actually takes power in an EU member state.
Remain was always favourite but you get the feeling the general public appetite for the EU is about as high as a 2p coin is deep.
By the way, Wales, we'll see you in Paris this weekend and we are likely to win.
It's a bit silly reading so much into these last two polls just because they were the last two to be published. We could have had Opinium and TNS tonight and YouGov and ComRes earlier.
Well said.
Incidentally I haven't made a final decision how to vote yet. Everyone I know is voting Remain which is difficult to ignore completely.
Hope you will. If we're going to vote Remain it'd be better if it's not by a tiny fraction so we don't spend the next year squabbling over it.
I haven't got a clue what the result will be tomorrow. Then again neither does Dave - and that will leave him curled up overnight clutching his teddy as he has repeated nightmares about his "legacy".
Politics. Always good times
I think Dave has very good idea of what is going to happen tomorrow.
That's why I think voting to leave is in the interest of both ourselves and the other members of the EU. If the 2nd largest EU economy and 2nd largest contributor walks out the door it will force the other 26 countries to have a major reassessment of what the EU should do and what it shouldn't. Let's face it we've always been on the fringes anyway so our departure would probably make it easier for the others to reach a consensus. Probably the most controversial part of the campaign has been immigration. Some people will vote to leave to stop immigration while others will vote remain to stop Farage. I think the latter group may need to be careful what they wish for. I think Farage would actually be quite happy with a narrow remain win as he would hope to do in England what Nicola Sturgeon did in Scotland after the independence vote. I would say to look again at the situation in Austria. Have the Austrians suddenly become more right wing? I would say it is a direct response to the large numbers of migrants passing through their country. The lesson here is that people become concerned about migration if they feel it is uncontrolled. If we want a cohesive multiethnic society we need to control migration so people stop worrying about it. We can then agree a level at the next election whether 100k, 300k or 500k. What is so corrosive to trust was Cameron making a promise he couldn't possibly keep. On a personal level, I'm hoping if we leave it might help to sort out the housing crisis a bit. My parents bought their 3 bed house near bristol for 22k in 1984. Our 2 bed flat that we rent would cost around 300k to buy. That's crazy money! It's interesting to note that the people who are most in favour of leaving are those who voted to stay in the 70s. They thought they were voting for a common market but feel lied to by the politicians. I fear that people voting remain will feel the same way in 10 years time. 10 years from now Boris will have retired and Farage will probably have cirrhosis of the liver. 10 years from now no-one will remember what the GDP was in 2017 (I expect a recession to be on the way whatever happens) 10 years from now the EU will probably not have reformed (or at least not in a way we like e.g. the European army) If we leave though, we have the opportunity to increase trade with countries on the way up like China and India and hopefully we'll look back in 10 years and wonder what the fuss was about.
So the phone/online gap is back - or perhaps just more obvious. At the 2015 GE, the phone polls understated the Tory lead while the online ones *really* understated it. If - and it's a big if - it's anything similar, then Remain would be on for about a 55-45 win.
The old will be for leave though, in Scotland they were for Remain and they turnout more than the young. The middle classes also turnout more and are for Remain but I expect the high older voter turnout to make the final result a shade nearer 50%-50% than 55%-45% though Remain should win
True. IIRC, the difference was that the 65+ segment was unduly weighted towards the 65-74 and didn't have enough 75+. If that's still the case (and it shouldn't be but not all faults get fixed even after diagnosis) then it'd pull the Remain lead down, as you say.
Betfair Exchange is offering 10/1 for turnout 60-65%. Seems like huge value.
I agree.
I don't think Leicester is excited enough to turnout in vast numbers.
I agree, tentatively. I suggested 62-64 based on the polls last week. I'd need to see the certainty to vote figures from the latest ones - I'd guess they're up a bit from then - but 10/1 is still very good value for the lower 60s band.
Lot of text on that Bild front page, what's the gist? I see 'Prinz Charles' Ohren(google says german for ears?) and gerbustag dur Queen (surely they have a word for Queen - do they use Queen tm to refer to specifically to Her Majesty - The Queen, not just a queen?
Yes. The official German dictionary has introduced due Queen to refer to our current Queen along side the generic German word.
I haven't got a clue what the result will be tomorrow. Then again neither does Dave - and that will leave him curled up overnight clutching his teddy as he has repeated nightmares about his "legacy".
Politics. Always good times
Politics is brutal, for me the person I felt most sorry on election night was Ed Balls, he woke up on May 7th thinking he might be Chancellor of the Exchequer shortly. Next morning he became unemployed.
Oh, come on, this as close as ComRes have had it bar last week.
Eve of poll:- Survation 1% Remain, Com Res 6% Remain, Yougov 2% Remain, Opinium 1% Leave, TNS 2% Leave or 7% Leave. Either a 1% average lead for Remain or a Tie.
Fair point. Thing is, Sean, like me you are far too emotionally invested in this.
Two days ago you said there wasn't the slightest doubt Remain would win. Tonight, you've called a 10% Leave win.
I think, like me, you're finding this really tough and your emotions are all over the place.
I confess I am already feeling a slight lightening of spirit.
So we lost. So it goes The fight will be resumed in different ways, after the summer, and we can make the REMAINERS suffer, for ever, for their treachery and cowardice. Because they are traitors and cowards. That is what they ARE.
Meantime, let's get back to work, football, cricket, having sex, and sleep.
Lot of text on that Bild front page, what's the gist? I see 'Prinz Charles' Ohren(google says german for ears?) and gerbustag dur Queen (surely they have a word for Queen - do they use Queen tm to refer to specifically to Her Majesty - The Queen, not just a queen?
Tried to use my phone's snazzy translate-with-the-camera feature, but it didn't like some of the words. There was something about sunbeds though
Fwiw the Remain activity on Fb seems to have picked up tonight from almost nothing. If it started before tonight I would most certainly be a shy leaver. Without wanting to sound pathetic it is rather intimidating watching tens of people who you socialise with advocating entirely for one thing and shooting down all resistance. Shy leave will be greater than shy remain.
I've seen it ramp up in both directions - you could just as easily be a shy remainer in certain social circles.
Lot of text on that Bild front page, what's the gist? I see 'Prinz Charles' Ohren(google says german for ears?) and gerbustag dur Queen (surely they have a word for Queen - do they use Queen tm to refer to specifically to Her Majesty - The Queen, not just a queen?
I imagine they must do. German for queen is konigin (I assume: it's definitely konig for king).
They do: "die Queen" is specific to HM Elizabeth. Koenigin is the usual word for queen.
There's a great deal of thunder in SW London right now - it looks like we're about to get the 24 hours of heavy rain as promised. If I could summon up the enthusuasm (I can't), I'd be betting on the turnout being lower than the market consensus, i.e. probably around 65%, certainly < 70% in my view. DYOR.
Oh, come on, this as close as ComRes have had it bar last week.
Eve of poll:- Survation 1% Remain, Com Res 6% Remain, Yougov 2% Remain, Opinium 1% Leave, TNS 2% Leave or 7% Leave. Either a 1% average lead for Remain or a Tie.
Fair point. Thing is, Sean, like me you are far too emotionally invested in this.
Two days ago you said there wasn't the slightest doubt Remain would win. Tonight, you've called a 10% Leave win.
I think, like me, you're finding this really tough and your emotions are all over the place.
Oh, come on, this as close as ComRes have had it bar last week.
Eve of poll:- Survation 1% Remain, Com Res 6% Remain, Yougov 2% Remain, Opinium 1% Leave, TNS 2% Leave or 7% Leave. Either a 1% average lead for Remain or a Tie.
Quite. UNless the phone polls really are that much better, it's a wide spread, and on a even field I say Leave do it.
Leave can do it, and differential turnout is our best hope.
But.
Remain is favourite right now. Maybe not 5-1, but still favourite.
Wonder what the consequences would be of a sub 1% margin of victory. If it was really, really close there would have to be some kind of compromise/fudge
Oh, come on, this as close as ComRes have had it bar last week.
Eve of poll:- Survation 1% Remain, Com Res 6% Remain, Yougov 2% Remain, Opinium 1% Leave, TNS 2% Leave or 7% Leave. Either a 1% average lead for Remain or a Tie.
Fair point. Thing is, Sean, like me you are far too emotionally invested in this.
Two days ago you said there wasn't the slightest doubt Remain would win. Tonight, you've called a 10% Leave win.
I think, like me, you're finding this really tough and your emotions are all over the place.
This. Sean, where's your British stiff upper lip man?
I confess I am already feeling a slight lightening of spirit.
So we lost. So it goes The fight will be resumed in different ways, after the summer, and we can make the REMAINERS suffer, for ever, for their treachery and cowardice. Because they are traitors and cowards. That is what they ARE.
Meantime, let's get back to work, football, cricket, having sex, and sleep.
Hate to break it to you but the vote hasn't actually taken place yet. We've still several more emotional rounds to go through before it's over.
Comments
You keep avoiding the obvious - they phone up in a rush to collect a poll, get Labour voting grads and get these results.
The research constantly points to it.
Martin Boon, Prof Curtice and Peter Kellner have all called on this in the last three months.
Phone samples = EICIPM.
Do you really believe that 42% of labour voters are graduates?
The better Leave are doing, the more enthused I am about voting for and advocating it. Just don't feel the fear, really. Just the hope.
But maybe I'm unusual.
Eve of poll:- Survation 1% Remain, Com Res 6% Remain, Yougov 2% Remain, Opinium 1% Leave, TNS 2% Leave or 7% Leave. Either a 1% average lead for Remain or a Tie.
I'm not avoiding anything obvious, that's why the ORB phone poll was so interesting.
https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/745732152164294656
It got right under my skin. My inner How Very Dare You took hold - being lectured by a bloke from the USA on why we shouldn't regain our independence crystallised my views.
Hope you decide which way to go after a good night's sleep.
But the polls have had 2 major disasters where they didn't even get the direction of travel right....1992, and 2015.
If Brexit wins, it would be a first......because all the betting markets have called the direction to remain, and quite frankly have never wavered.
The EU is now taking it away and making it irrelevant.
It's happening.
Remind me what I said! It does sound like me.
I note that the areas with the high new registrations often seem to be pro-Leave.
The only thing this has shown is that the remains campaign is a bigger shambles than Leaves
Risky: 35%
Safe: 53%
(via YouGov)
I don't think Leicester is excited enough to turnout in vast numbers.
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/745733158868488196
Work tomorrow will be fun.
I must explain to my colleagues in Ireland (Republic thereof), England, Spain, Belgium and Germany that since the best team in Europe are sitting this one out, I will be supporting Wales
This may be influenced by my 60/1 betting slip, and 4/1 Bale top scorer
Have a pleasant evening
If you come out for leave next time, I'll have to switch... (only joking)
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/
And his deal was crap. And then he crapped all over our country's national pride. I want him gone - along with Osborne.
Politics. Always good times
http://whatukthinks.org/eu/
They won't use suncream in solidarity with our sunburn.
They won't use a goalkeeper in the next penalty shoot-out with us to make it more interesting.
etc.
Why it's time to say goodbye to the EU
I can't help thinking it's slightly ironic that I'm writing this. 17 years ago the EU gave me money under the Erasmus scheme to study in Pisa. Gay, 37 years old, in a mixed-race relationship. I really ought to be part of the Remain campaign's core vote but let me explain why I'm not.
Firstly, what is this referendum about? I think some in the Remain campaign want it to be a referendum on Boris or Farage but it's not. It's about the European Union. By anyone's standards the EU at the moment is a failing organisation. The disaster that is the Euro has led to an economic crisis across southern Europe, while the mishandling of the migrant crisis has led to a surge in support for the far right.
I used to be fairly neutral on the EU until I saw what happened to Greece. There's no doubt Greece contributed to their own problems but they didn't deserve the treatment they have received. I remember summit after summit to "save the Euro" but not a single summit to save the poor Greeks. Greece has now had three bailouts and the fourth is on the way once we have had our vote. If Greece was at least better off that would be something but they have had years of austerity and are running a surplus but have more debt than when they started! The only real winners are the French and German banks who held the initial Greek debt that was bailed out.
Frankly the Euro has been a failure for pretty much everyone except the Germans. Only this week the anti-Euro 5 stars party won the mayoralties of Rome and Turin
I've heard a few people say we shouldn't worry about sovereignty but the problem is the lack of democracy. We can't vote for any of the 5 presidents (whoever they are) and the EU has a track record of ignoring referendum results it doesn't like. M. Juncker famously said before referendums in France and the Netherlands on the constitution 'if it's a yes we'll say "on we go" and if it's a no we will say "we continue". And that's exactly what happened. I'm not entirely confused if we do vote leave that it will ever happen.
One of the arguments made in favour of the EU is that it has brought peace to Europe. I fear that may not last much longer. Recently we have seen the rise of the far left in some countries due to the economic crisis, and the far right in other countries due to the migration crisis. Only recently the far right very nearly won the presidency of Austria. If things carry on as they are, it won't be long before one of these extremist parties actually takes power in an EU member state.
Goodnight
That's why I think voting to leave is in the interest of both ourselves and the other members of the EU. If the 2nd largest EU economy and 2nd largest contributor walks out the door it will force the other 26 countries to have a major reassessment of what the EU should do and what it shouldn't. Let's face it we've always been on the fringes anyway so our departure would probably make it easier for the others to reach a consensus.
Probably the most controversial part of the campaign has been immigration. Some people will vote to leave to stop immigration while others will vote remain to stop Farage. I think the latter group may need to be careful what they wish for. I think Farage would actually be quite happy with a narrow remain win as he would hope to do in England what Nicola Sturgeon did in Scotland after the independence vote.
I would say to look again at the situation in Austria. Have the Austrians suddenly become more right wing? I would say it is a direct response to the large numbers of migrants passing through their country. The lesson here is that people become concerned about migration if they feel it is uncontrolled. If we want a cohesive multiethnic society we need to control migration so people stop worrying about it. We can then agree a level at the next election whether 100k, 300k or 500k. What is so corrosive to trust was Cameron making a promise he couldn't possibly keep.
On a personal level, I'm hoping if we leave it might help to sort out the housing crisis a bit. My parents bought their 3 bed house near bristol for 22k in 1984. Our 2 bed flat that we rent would cost around 300k to buy. That's crazy money!
It's interesting to note that the people who are most in favour of leaving are those who voted to stay in the 70s. They thought they were voting for a common market but feel lied to by the politicians.
I fear that people voting remain will feel the same way in 10 years time.
10 years from now Boris will have retired and Farage will probably have cirrhosis of the liver.
10 years from now no-one will remember what the GDP was in 2017 (I expect a recession to be on the way whatever happens)
10 years from now the EU will probably not have reformed (or at least not in a way we like e.g. the European army)
If we leave though, we have the opportunity to increase trade with countries on the way up like China and India and hopefully we'll look back in 10 years and wonder what the fuss was about.
Two days ago you said there wasn't the slightest doubt Remain would win. Tonight, you've called a 10% Leave win.
I think, like me, you're finding this really tough and your emotions are all over the place.
It's expanding the legacy of our great ancestor king, Cnut.
If I could summon up the enthusuasm (I can't), I'd be betting on the turnout being lower than the market consensus, i.e. probably around 65%, certainly < 70% in my view.
DYOR.
But.
Remain is favourite right now. Maybe not 5-1, but still favourite.
I do wonder if they have the permission of the copywrite holder