ITV weather for London showing heavy rain, thunder and lightning for tomorrow.
Not good for us Remainers.
London is not an island, if it rains in London at some point tomorrow it probably will elsewhere in the UK too
No, forecast I saw said v heavy rain and thunderstorms for London, Greater London, parts of south coast, Kent etc. Rest of England ok. Showers in Scotland.
That would mean the storm is coming fro Europe, right?
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.
I'd go further and say there's a very good chance the Conservative Party is finished as well. I have a hunch Farage will go, UKIP will elect someone much smarter and the Tories will face an existential crisis across England...
Conservative Party finished? I don't think so.
It came very close with Tony... But it endured because there was nothing credible on the right.
All it needs is for UKIP to get serious and the Tories are in very, very serious trouble, especially when the EU starts rolling back on Cameron's silly renegotiation as well as coming for more even more sovereignty and money from us, which we all know they will.
UKIP are too divisive, and like it or not there is a stigma attached to voting for them. Many Tories wouldn't touch them with a bargepole.
That's with Farage as leader. My contention is that Farage will go and UKIP will be one decent leader away from causing a real crisis to the Tories (and Labour in the north)
I don't know much about UKIP politicians to know if there's someone waiting that can have a much wider appeal than Farage but if there is such a person, especially when Cameron's renegotiation unravels and the EU comes for more money and sovereignty, the Tories will be in very serious trouble...
I have just arrived in That London after a too-long train journey, and have just checked in to a posh hotel, courtesy of the firm, thank you. I got a welcome cookie, hung clothes up, phoned home, and have gone thru the complimentary biscuits, yum (Oat and raisin. Not fruit shrewsbury, but let's not be too fussy), and have Rhod Gilbert on telly. I go into the bathroom and HOLY S**T THERE IS NO BATH. NO BATH! IT'S A WALK-IN SHOWER CUBICLE!
The whole point of "posh hotel that firm is paying for" is to have a bath in hot water that YOU DID NOT PAY TO HEAT. It's the whole experience. It's fun. WHAT IS THE POINT!!!!
Peter from Putney's tip on the 1% margin is looking like it might be value. Might as well make money in the event that we end up with the worst possible result!
Whatever the result please at least make it decisive so it is clear cut no grey area or argument. This knife edge stuff is not going to solve anything and if it's just a tiny majority for remain then even worse.
I worry that a 51-49 is going to end up in court one way or the other. The campaigns have both been a disgrace to democracy with bogus statistics, baseless scaremongering and abuse of process.
I have my side, but would much rather it were a decisive 55-45 either way than a very marginal result. Also hoping for high turnout to add legitimacy.
Not our style.
At least, not this Little Englander's style.
Who knows - there are a lot of metropolitan lawyers.
Agree completely it's not our *usual* style - but have you ever seen such a vicious campaign before?
We're expecting 31-32m votes, if it's within 1% I just can't see the losing side accepting the result after all that's happened in the campaigns.
I did ask, as did others, the other day if there was provision for a recount on the night or safe storage of ballot papers in the event of a challenge, but no-one could give a definitive answer.
Urgh - it would be awful wouldn't it.
Markets would have to be suspended in that event, surely?
ITV weather for London showing heavy rain, thunder and lightning for tomorrow.
Not good for us Remainers.
London is not an island, if it rains in London at some point tomorrow it probably will elsewhere in the UK too
No, forecast I saw said v heavy rain and thunderstorms for London, Greater London, parts of south coast, Kent etc. Rest of England ok. Showers in Scotland.
That would mean the storm is coming fro Europe, right?
Peter from Putney's tip on the 1% margin is looking like it might be value. Might as well make money in the event that we end up with the worst possible result!
Whatever the result please at least make it decisive so it is clear cut no grey area or argument. This knife edge stuff is not going to solve anything and if it's just a tiny majority for remain then even worse.
I worry that a 51-49 is going to end up in court one way or the other. The campaigns have both been a disgrace to democracy with bogus statistics, baseless scaremongering and abuse of process.
I have my side, but would much rather it were a decisive 55-45 either way than a very marginal result. Also hoping for high turnout to add legitimacy.
Even a 55 45 result did not exactly settle it is Scotland
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.
An excellent summary
In your wildest dreams. More likely they have placed the Tory Party in the Europhile, pro-business, pro-London centre ground
If we do vote Remain, the membership will probably choose the most eurosceptic of the two they get to vote on.
Worked well with IDS.....
As a card carrying Tory who voted UKIP in 2015 (the Tories had no chance in Liverpool). I will be voting soley on Europe - the Cameroon pursuit of power for powers sake is pointless. No tackling of the deficit, no BBC reform, broken immigration pledges and no real significant tax reform.
That's fair enough. I would be happy with a sensible Leaver in charge. Barring Gove who isn't an election winner there are none. I suspect Osborne is aware he'd be an electoral liability, so who does that leave?
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.
I think I hear the sound of flapping white coats
Sean's analysis is bang on the money of what happens in the event that REMAIN wins narrowly. In fact it could be a little too conservative in the terms of the sh*t storm that's going to be unleashed on the Conservative Party over the next few months.
Maybe but I doubt it. The Tory Party always rally round their leader. My guess is that Cameron will fire Gove and Boris and other coat flappers and appoint a new cabinet and then patronage will set in
If Cameron fires Gove and Boris, Graham Brady will have a full postbox the following day. Unless it's 60-40 Remain, Dave will need to be conciliatory towards Leavers in his own party - he barely has a majority and there's more than a few Tory MPs that want to see him walk the plank.
If it's that bad in the southeast it might surpress turnout of those elderly folk who did not post. Won't have much effect in London, half of which is subterranean anyway...
Peter from Putney's tip on the 1% margin is looking like it might be value. Might as well make money in the event that we end up with the worst possible result!
Whatever the result please at least make it decisive so it is clear cut no grey area or argument. This knife edge stuff is not going to solve anything and if it's just a tiny majority for remain then even worse.
I worry that a 51-49 is going to end up in court one way or the other. The campaigns have both been a disgrace to democracy with bogus statistics, baseless scaremongering and abuse of process.
I have my side, but would much rather it were a decisive 55-45 either way than a very marginal result. Also hoping for high turnout to add legitimacy.
Not our style.
At least, not this Little Englander's style.
Who knows - there are a lot of metropolitan lawyers.
Agree completely it's not our *usual* style - but have you ever seen such a vicious campaign before?
We're expecting 31-32m votes, if it's within 1% I just can't see the losing side accepting the result after all that's happened in the campaigns.
I did ask, as did others, the other day if there was provision for a recount on the night or safe storage of ballot papers in the event of a challenge, but no-one could give a definitive answer.
'We at SandpitMortimer always favour decisive victories to protracted legal battles where only the lawyers prosper.'
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.
I think I hear the sound of flapping white coats
Sean's analysis is bang on the money of what happens in the event that REMAIN wins narrowly. In fact it could be a little too conservative in the terms of the sh*t storm that's going to be unleashed on the Conservative Party over the next few months.
Maybe but I doubt it. The Tory Party always rally round their leader. My guess is that Cameron will fire Gove and Boris and other coat flappers and appoint a new cabinet and then patronage will set in
Yes. A Remain win won't sate Boris's ambition one jot; he'll just duck out for a few years and work on Plan B. Cameron, Osborne and Gove are mates so will kiss and make up. As for IDS, he'll just shuffle back to the back-benches with his pea-shooter.
I have just arrived in That London after a too-long train journey, and have just checked in to a posh hotel, courtesy of the firm, thank you. I got a welcome cookie, hung clothes up, phoned home, and have gone thru the complimentary biscuits, yum (Oat and raisin. Not fruit shrewsbury, but let's not be too fussy), and have Rhod Gilbert on telly. I go into the bathroom and HOLY S**T THERE IS NO BATH. NO BATH! IT'S A WALK-IN SHOWER CUBICLE!
The whole point of "posh hotel that firm is paying for" is to have a bath in hot water that YOU DID NOT PAY TO HEAT. It's the whole experience. It's fun. WHAT IS THE POINT!!!!
Right, that's it, I'm nicking the towels...
There was a great story on the claridges documentary where a unnamed us pop star demanded that their hotel bath room must have a "spa" style bath, so they ripped out the existing bath, fitted a new one & reversed it after they left.
It's one thing changing around the furniture or even the carpet, but ripping a bath out for a few nights!!!
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.
I'd go further and say there's a very good chance the Conservative Party is finished as well. I have a hunch Farage will go, UKIP will elect someone much smarter and the Tories will face an existential crisis across England...
Conservative Party finished? I don't think so.
It came very close with Tony... But it endured because there was nothing credible on the right.
All it needs is for UKIP to get serious and the Tories are in very, very serious trouble, especially when the EU starts rolling back on Cameron's silly renegotiation as well as coming for more even more sovereignty and money from us, which we all know they will.
UKIP are too divisive, and like it or not there is a stigma attached to voting for them. Many Tories wouldn't touch them with a bargepole.
That's with Farage as leader. My contention is that Farage will go and UKIP will be one decent leader away from causing a real crisis to the Tories (and Labour in the north)
I don't know much about UKIP politicians to know if there's someone waiting that can have a much wider appeal than Farage but if there is such a person, especially when Cameron's renegotiation unravels and the EU comes for more money and sovereignty, the Tories will be in very serious trouble...
Met Office Warnings Issued For:Greater London Yellow early warning of rain From:1800 on Wed 22 June To:0600 on Fri 24 June Updated 22 June at 10:16 Active
Although some areas will miss them, potentially intense thundery downpours seem likely to affect parts of the warning area from Wednesday late afternoon or early evening onwards into the early hours of Thursday or Thursday morning. Further scattered thunderstorms are then likely to break out from Thursday afternoon onwards into Thursday night.
Please be aware of possible disruption to travel and localised flooding as well as frequent lightning.
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.
I'd go further and say there's a very good chance the Conservative Party is finished as well. I have a hunch Farage will go, UKIP will elect someone much smarter and the Tories will face an existential crisis across England...
Conservative Party finished? I don't think so.
It came very close with Tony... But it endured because there was nothing credible on the right.
All it needs is for UKIP to get serious and the Tories are in very, very serious trouble, especially when the EU starts rolling back on Cameron's silly renegotiation as well as coming for more even more sovereignty and money from us, which we all know they will.
UKIP are too divisive, and like it or not there is a stigma attached to voting for them. Many Tories wouldn't touch them with a bargepole.
That's with Farage as leader. My contention is that Farage will go and UKIP will be one decent leader away from causing a real crisis to the Tories (and Labour in the north)
I don't know much about UKIP politicians to know if there's someone waiting that can have a much wider appeal than Farage but if there is such a person, especially when Cameron's renegotiation unravels and the EU comes for more money and sovereignty, the Tories will be in very serious trouble...
2014 European elections were UKIP 27% Labour 24% Tories 23%
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.
I'd go further and say there's a very good chance the Conservative Party is finished as well. I have a hunch Farage will go, UKIP will elect someone much smarter and the Tories will face an existential crisis across England...
Conservative Party finished? I don't think so.
It came very close with Tony... But it endured because there was nothing credible on the right.
All it needs is for UKIP to get serious and the Tories are in very, very serious trouble, especially when the EU starts rolling back on Cameron's silly renegotiation as well as coming for more even more sovereignty and money from us, which we all know they will.
UKIP are too divisive, and like it or not there is a stigma attached to voting for them. Many Tories wouldn't touch them with a bargepole.
That's with Farage as leader. My contention is that Farage will go and UKIP will be one decent leader away from causing a real crisis to the Tories (and Labour in the north)
I don't know much about UKIP politicians to know if there's someone waiting that can have a much wider appeal than Farage but if there is such a person, especially when Cameron's renegotiation unravels and the EU comes for more money and sovereignty, the Tories will be in very serious trouble...
There are a lot of ifs and maybes in that scenario. Personally I doubt the Tories would have come close to getting a majority with a right wing leader, and previous elections prove the point. However if Cameron isn't ideologically pure enough for the membership they can put another whack job loser up and see what happens. It might please the grass roots but it won't appeal to voters and that's what matters ultimately.
Peter from Putney's tip on the 1% margin is looking like it might be value. Might as well make money in the event that we end up with the worst possible result!
Whatever the result please at least make it decisive so it is clear cut no grey area or argument. This knife edge stuff is not going to solve anything and if it's just a tiny majority for remain then even worse.
I worry that a 51-49 is going to end up in court one way or the other. The campaigns have both been a disgrace to democracy with bogus statistics, baseless scaremongering and abuse of process.
I have my side, but would much rather it were a decisive 55-45 either way than a very marginal result. Also hoping for high turnout to add legitimacy.
Not our style.
At least, not this Little Englander's style.
Who knows - there are a lot of metropolitan lawyers.
Agree completely it's not our *usual* style - but have you ever seen such a vicious campaign before?
We're expecting 31-32m votes, if it's within 1% I just can't see the losing side accepting the result after all that's happened in the campaigns.
I did ask, as did others, the other day if there was provision for a recount on the night or safe storage of ballot papers in the event of a challenge, but no-one could give a definitive answer.
Urgh - it would be awful wouldn't it.
Markets would have to be suspended in that event, surely?
Oh yeah, it would be pretty horrible for as long as it took to sort out the result. Difficult to suspend markets these days as trading still happens off-market instead, but the BoE could well intervene and a run on the pound couldn't be ruled out. Banks could well close early on Friday if it looks like there's going to be a problem.
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.
An excellent summary
In your wildest dreams. More likely they have placed the Tory Party in the Europhile, pro-business, pro-London centre ground
If we do vote Remain, the membership will probably choose the most eurosceptic of the two they get to vote on.
Worked well with IDS.....
As a card carrying Tory who voted UKIP in 2015 (the Tories had no chance in Liverpool). I will be voting soley on Europe - the Cameroon pursuit of power for powers sake is pointless. No tackling of the deficit, no BBC reform, broken immigration pledges and no real significant tax reform.
That's fair enough. I would be happy with a sensible Leaver in charge. Barring Gove who isn't an election winner there are none. I suspect Osborne is aware he'd be an electoral liability, so who does that leave?
Hammond is my bet, a eurosceptic Remainer, goodnight
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.
I think I hear the sound of flapping white coats
Sean's analysis is bang on the money of what happens in the event that REMAIN wins narrowly. In fact it could be a little too conservative in the terms of the sh*t storm that's going to be unleashed on the Conservative Party over the next few months.
Maybe but I doubt it. The Tory Party always rally round their leader. My guess is that Cameron will fire Gove and Boris and other coat flappers and appoint a new cabinet and then patronage will set in
Yes. A Remain win won't sate Boris's ambition one jot; he'll just duck out for a few years and work on Plan B. Cameron, Osborne and Gove are mates so will kiss and make up. As for IDS, he'll just shuffle back to the back-benches with his pea-shooter.
That's right,a pea-shooter with many angry backbenchers in a small majority government
I have just arrived in That London after a too-long train journey, and have just checked in to a posh hotel, courtesy of the firm, thank you. I got a welcome cookie, hung clothes up, phoned home, and have gone thru the complimentary biscuits, yum (Oat and raisin. Not fruit shrewsbury, but let's not be too fussy), and have Rhod Gilbert on telly. I go into the bathroom and HOLY S**T THERE IS NO BATH. NO BATH! IT'S A WALK-IN SHOWER CUBICLE!
The whole point of "posh hotel that firm is paying for" is to have a bath in hot water that YOU DID NOT PAY TO HEAT. It's the whole experience. It's fun. WHAT IS THE POINT!!!!
Right, that's it, I'm nicking the towels...
There was a great story on the claridges documentary where a unnamed us pop star demanded that their hotel bath room must have a "spa" style bath, so they ripped out the existing bath, fitted a new one & reversed it after they left.
It's one thing changing around the furniture or even the carpet, but ripping a bath out for a few nights!!!
I always thought it was the pop stars that used to rip hotel stuff out?
There was a great story on the claridges documentary where a unnamed us pop star demanded that their hotel bath room must have a "spa" style bath, so they ripped out the existing bath, fitted a new one & reversed it after they left.
It's one thing changing around the furniture or even the carpet, but ripping a bath out for a few nights!!!
They seem to have done that with mine. Honestly, I'm not getting somebody else's verrucas. Verrucae. Whatever.
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.
I'd go further and say there's a very good chance the Conservative Party is finished as well. I have a hunch Farage will go, UKIP will elect someone much smarter and the Tories will face an existential crisis across England...
Conservative Party finished? I don't think so.
It came very close with Tony... But it endured because there was nothing credible on the right.
All it needs is for UKIP to get serious and the Tories are in very, very serious trouble, especially when the EU starts rolling back on Cameron's silly renegotiation as well as coming for more even more sovereignty and money from us, which we all know they will.
there is a stigma attached to voting for them.
Sounds like the Tories 1994-2007 (and, in some circles, all of the time).
Stigmas can be removed.
Quite...guess what gave them that stigma......the right of the party......guess who removed it....Cameron. But they never learn.
I have just arrived in That London after a too-long train journey, and have just checked in to a posh hotel, courtesy of the firm, thank you. I got a welcome cookie, hung clothes up, phoned home, and have gone thru the complimentary biscuits, yum (Oat and raisin. Not fruit shrewsbury, but let's not be too fussy), and have Rhod Gilbert on telly. I go into the bathroom and HOLY S**T THERE IS NO BATH. NO BATH! IT'S A WALK-IN SHOWER CUBICLE!
The whole point of "posh hotel that firm is paying for" is to have a bath in hot water that YOU DID NOT PAY TO HEAT. It's the whole experience. It's fun. WHAT IS THE POINT!!!!
Right, that's it, I'm nicking the towels...
There was a great story on the claridges documentary where a unnamed us pop star demanded that their hotel bath room must have a "spa" style bath, so they ripped out the existing bath, fitted a new one & reversed it after they left.
It's one thing changing around the furniture or even the carpet, but ripping a bath out for a few nights!!!
I always thought it was the pop stars that used to rip hotel stuff out?
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.
I'd go further and say there's a very good chance the Conservative Party is finished as well. I have a hunch Farage will go, UKIP will elect someone much smarter and the Tories will face an existential crisis across England...
Conservative Party finished? I don't think so.
It came very close with Tony... But it endured because there was nothing credible on the right.
All it needs is for UKIP to get serious and the Tories are in very, very serious trouble, especially when the EU starts rolling back on Cameron's silly renegotiation as well as coming for more even more sovereignty and money from us, which we all know they will.
UKIP are too divisive, and like it or not there is a stigma attached to voting for them. Many Tories wouldn't touch them with a bargepole.
That's with Farage as leader. My contention is that Farage will go and UKIP will be one decent leader away from causing a real crisis to the Tories (and Labour in the north)
I don't know much about UKIP politicians to know if there's someone waiting that can have a much wider appeal than Farage but if there is such a person, especially when Cameron's renegotiation unravels and the EU comes for more money and sovereignty, the Tories will be in very serious trouble...
There are a lot of ifs and maybes in that scenario. Personally I doubt the Tories would have come close to getting a majority with a right wing leader, and previous elections prove the point. However if Cameron isn't ideologically pure enough for the membership they can put another whack job loser up and see what happens. It might please the grass roots but it won't appeal to voters and that's what matters ultimately.
2016-2020 with a loser would be better than 10 years of tweak-interventionist Cameron achieving changes but nothing irreversible or substantial. If people knew what Thatcher was going to do, she probably wouldn't have won. This time the FTPA means it won't be a problem.
That's actually quite good. Emphasises Clinton is In this for herself, but trump isn't (not saying that's true, but it's a good line and approach)
'Hillary Clinton wants to be President. But she doesn't have the temperament, or, as Bernie Sanders' said, the judgement, to be president. She believes she is entitled to the office. Her campaign slogan is “I’m with her.” You know what my response to that is? I’m with you: the American people. She thinks it’s all about her. I know it’s all about you – I know it’s all about making America Great Again for All Americans. Our country lost its way when we stopped putting the American people first.'
Peter from Putney's tip on the 1% margin is looking like it might be value. Might as well make money in the event that we end up with the worst possible result!
Whatever the result please at least make it decisive so it is clear cut no grey area or argument. This knife edge stuff is not going to solve anything and if it's just a tiny majority for remain then even worse.
I worry that a 51-49 is going to end up in court one way or the other. The campaigns have both been a disgrace to democracy with bogus statistics, baseless scaremongering and abuse of process.
I have my side, but would much rather it were a decisive 55-45 either way than a very marginal result. Also hoping for high turnout to add legitimacy.
Even a 55 45 result did not exactly settle it is Scotland
The substantive issue of independence is still live in Scotland thanks to the SNP, but at least the result of the referendum was accepted by all. If the result of this referendum isn't accepted by the losing side then we have carnage on Friday.
That's actually quite good. Emphasises Clinton is In this for herself, but trump isn't (not saying that's true, but it's a good line and approach)
'Hillary Clinton wants to be President. But she doesn't have the temperament, or, as Bernie Sanders' said, the judgement, to be president. She believes she is entitled to the office. Her campaign slogan is “I’m with her.” You know what my response to that is? I’m with you: the American people. She thinks it’s all about her. I know it’s all about you – I know it’s all about making America Great Again for All Americans. Our country lost its way when we stopped putting the American people first.'
"Germany's Bild, which wants the UK to stay in the EU, is betting £10k on Remain to win the referendum. It says it will spend the winnings on free drinks in London."
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.
I'd go further and say there's a very good chance the Conservative Party is finished as well. I have a hunch Farage will go, UKIP will elect someone much smarter and the Tories will face an existential crisis across England...
Conservative Party finished? I don't think so.
It came very close with Tony... But it endured because there was nothing credible on the right.
All it needs is for UKIP to get serious and the Tories are in very, very serious trouble, especially when the EU starts rolling back on Cameron's silly renegotiation as well as coming for more even more sovereignty and money from us, which we all know they will.
UKIP are too divisive, and like it or not there is a stigma attached to voting for them. Many Tories wouldn't touch them with a bargepole.
That's with Farage as leader. My contention is that Farage will go and UKIP will be one decent leader away from causing a real crisis to the Tories (and Labour in the north)
I don't know much about UKIP politicians to know if there's someone waiting that can have a much wider appeal than Farage but if there is such a person, especially when Cameron's renegotiation unravels and the EU comes for more money and sovereignty, the Tories will be in very serious trouble...
There are a lot of ifs and maybes in that scenario. Personally I doubt the Tories would have come close to getting a majority with a right wing leader, and previous elections prove the point. However if Cameron isn't ideologically pure enough for the membership they can put another whack job loser up and see what happens. It might please the grass roots but it won't appeal to voters and that's what matters ultimately.
2016-2020 with a loser would be better than 10 years of tweak-interventionist Cameron achieving changes but nothing irreversible or substantial. If people knew what Thatcher was going to do, she probably wouldn't have won. This time the FTPA means it won't be a problem.</blockquote
Without Cameron there wouldn't be a Tory Government or referendum.
Peter from Putney's tip on the 1% margin is looking like it might be value. Might as well make money in the event that we end up with the worst possible result!
Whatever the result please at least make it decisive so it is clear cut no grey area or argument. This knife edge stuff is not going to solve anything and if it's just a tiny majority for remain then even worse.
I worry that a 51-49 is going to end up in court one way or the other. The campaigns have both been a disgrace to democracy with bogus statistics, baseless scaremongering and abuse of process.
I have my side, but would much rather it were a decisive 55-45 either way than a very marginal result. Also hoping for high turnout to add legitimacy.
If it's really close either way if the shit hits the fan in the next couple of years it will open all this up again. Cameron hoped to win 60:40 and the issue be dead for a generation.
I still say he could have won 60-40 if he'd had an honest renegotiation followed by a polite campaign. He's only himself to blame for the tone of debate over the last four months.
"Germany's Bild, which wants the UK to stay in the EU, is betting £10k on Remain to win the referendum. It says it will spend the winnings on free drinks in London."
"Germany's Bild, which wants the UK to stay in the EU, is betting £10k on Remain to win the referendum. It says it will spend the winnings on free drinks in London."
Peter from Putney's tip on the 1% margin is looking like it might be value. Might as well make money in the event that we end up with the worst possible result!
Whatever the result please at least make it decisive so it is clear cut no grey area or argument. This knife edge stuff is not going to solve anything and if it's just a tiny majority for remain then even worse.
I worry that a 51-49 is going to end up in court one way or the other. The campaigns have both been a disgrace to democracy with bogus statistics, baseless scaremongering and abuse of process.
I have my side, but would much rather it were a decisive 55-45 either way than a very marginal result. Also hoping for high turnout to add legitimacy.
If it's really close either way if the shit hits the fan in the next couple of years it will open all this up again. Cameron hoped to win 60:40 and the issue be dead for a generation.
I still say he could have won 60-40 if he'd had an honest renegotiation followed by a polite campaign. He's only himself to blame for the tone of debate over the last four months.
You can tell how crap the deal was...it was basically never mentioned for the whole campaign. I think leave made a mistake not pointing this out & evidence that eu doesn't change or reform and that a vote for remain is not a vote for the status quo.
No as he has 390 more delegates than needed and 1000 more than Cruz, his closest rival
I think it's more like the RNC would like to fire Trump, but they are stuck with him
'Trump looked different Wednesday morning as he stood behind a lectern in his Soho hotel; he looked like a candidate serious about trying to win in November.'
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.
The huge flaw in that analysis is that it assumes that the EU is the primary issue for Conservative voters and members, and that they divide neatly into two strongly-opposed groups on the subject. Both assumptions are wrong in my experience; most Conservatives are mildly unhappy with the EU. When they lean towards Brexit, they don't necessarily see it as without risk and downside, and when they lean in the other direction, they recognise the faults in the EU and are frustrated by them.
In practice, most Conservatives will accept whatever the result of tomorrow turns out to be.
(You've also glossed over the fact that a lot of traditionally 'left-wing' voters are voting Leave).
When you have one group of Conservatives on this site accusing Vote Leave of being partially responsible for the murder of Jo Cox, I'd say that's a division that won't be reconciled easily.
What I remember from on here is days of people saying it had nothing at all to do with Brexit no siree. That it was suspicious that one witness heard "Britain First" . Did not people find it strange that it happened at this point in the campaign. That he was a madman, deranged etc not at all influenced by campaign. No one said that maybe some of the language was going too far or making obvious connotations, dog whistling all over the place and pretending to act all shocked when people called them on it.
But you are right these wounds won't heal easily. What riles me the most is after years of the brexiters calling Cameron and Co traitors and quislings and opposing everything they said and did, then to start to crying about of a couple of insults clutching their skirts and getting the vapours was so hypocritical it made me pretty darn cross.
If remain lose it'd serve Boris and Co right if Osborne and Cameron did resign immediately and let the Brexiters own the aftermath. I'm sure they could deploy their superior economic plan and negotiate a smooth EU exit plan and superior trade agreement with barely a ripple in the markets and no need for any emergency budgets.
Oh no wait Gove and Boris want them to stay on, for stability sake. Or the fact they don't have a f--ing clue what they'd do. Maybe Gove feels he could wing it after we don't need to listen to experts.
Most of you will probably find this an odd analogy, but I always think of immigration as being rather like medication. The correct amount of medication is beneficial to the patient. Too little, or too much can be harmful (e.g. digitalis).
I don't think that when the founding fathers put "Freedom of Movement" into the DNA of the EU that they ever imagined that there would be migration on a scale large enough to cause concern to host communities.
It was fine until expansion to the East and then the eurozone crisis causing mass unemployment in Southern Europe.
If Leave win tomorrow it will be ironic that Britain was always the biggest cheerleader pushing for expansion into the East and its this expansion and the migration wave into Britain as a result these last 12 years that will have caused Brexit.
I see that the 21st centuries tribute act to Edward Heath (David Davis) had an interview in Prospect in which he feels he could run again for Tory leadership!!!
You know I'm actually mildly Eurosceptic and in reality so is Cameron and most of the Tory Party. But for the true believers there is no position that is pure enough, It's an ever moving feast where one years right on position is next years old hat and the following years dangerous reactionary,
The problem is that every problem in Britain is now due to Europe, there is not one thing that would not be better without Europe or they are stopping us doing something. It's a stupid monomania, well they are in for a shock if we do leave. Our schools will still be crap, we won't train young workers and still rely on immigrants . We still won't spend enough on new roads or rail and too much on benefits. Most our problems will still be there and we'll have added some new ones by making enemies with Europe.
The political system in Britain is broken and we need Electoral Reform, as in Proportional Representation. Labour and the Tories are not fit for purpose anymore.
I expect we'll see some of the scottish seats declare quite early.
Turnout, IMO, could be quite a bit lower than in E/W.
Fewer votes to count. Quicker declarations.
Clacks will declare around 1.30am and its vote will pretty much be spot on for the entire Scottish vote.
Yeah good point - Clackmannanshire was very close to the indyref result
Indeed, 54/46 compared to the final total of 55/45. It was also a must win for Indy to pull it off. It was pretty disappointing to see the entire vote over so early.
Clacks is Scotland. Half the population is in one big town, the rest of the county is split pretty much evenly (on a population basis) between the wealthy in Dollar and Muckhart, the middle in Alva and Tillicoultry and the hovel that is Menstrie, while the various villages around the county tend to represent the agricultural and mining split of Scotland's rural parts while a small industrial base exists in Alloa.
Peter from Putney's tip on the 1% margin is looking like it might be value. Might as well make money in the event that we end up with the worst possible result!
Whatever the result please at least make it decisive so it is clear cut no grey area or argument. This knife edge stuff is not going to solve anything and if it's just a tiny majority for remain then even worse.
I worry that a 51-49 is going to end up in court one way or the other. The campaigns have both been a disgrace to democracy with bogus statistics, baseless scaremongering and abuse of process.
I have my side, but would much rather it were a decisive 55-45 either way than a very marginal result. Also hoping for high turnout to add legitimacy.
If it's really close either way if the shit hits the fan in the next couple of years it will open all this up again. Cameron hoped to win 60:40 and the issue be dead for a generation.
I still say he could have won 60-40 if he'd had an honest renegotiation followed by a polite campaign. He's only himself to blame for the tone of debate over the last four months.
Take your point about the renegotiating but do you honestly believe the Euroloons were ever going to give him a break. Seriously. The writing was on the wall when Duncan Smith discovered a hitherto unseen social conscience, miraculously at the start of the campaign.
The political system in Britain is broken and we need Electoral Reform, as in Proportional Representation. Labour and the Tories are not fit for purpose anymore.
Labour lost one of its arms in 2015, with no chance of it growing back, starfish-like.
It is now terminally crippled under FPTP and, unless the Tories literally implode, has no prospect of winning a majority in the decade or more ahead, a fortiori under Corbyn.
Re-alignment, combined with PR, would seem its only chance of exercising any kind of power for the foreseeable future.
The political system in Britain is broken and we need Electoral Reform, as in Proportional Representation. Labour and the Tories are not fit for purpose anymore.
Labour lost one of its arms in 2015, with no chance of it growing back, starfish-like.
It is now terminally crippled under FPTP and, unless the Tories literally implode, has no prospect of winning a majority in the decade or more ahead, a fortiori under Corbyn.
Re-alignment, combined with PR, would seem its only chance of exercising any kind of power for the foreseeable future.
Agree
But its not just about Labour, its bigger than that. England is completely disenfranchised under FPTP, the range and splintering of political opinion in England is being shut out. The fact that the SNP have got 50 odd MP's whereas UKIP has one and the Greens have one is untenable.
Ukip or variant will undoubtedly flourish post narrow remain win and for very good reason. This has not been a fair go referendum. What would the polls be implying if it had? And they talk about lying down with dogs. BETTING Have looked for spreads on 2020 GE seats but found none. A buy at sub 10 will pay off, imho. Purely my sentiment of course
Today is the Victory day holiday in Estonia and the flags will stay up all night into tomorrow's St. John's day holiday. The Estonians are very concerned not to lose a good friend in the EU, and a Remain victory on this scale would be greeted with a sigh of relief.
Then the question becomes what next for British politics?
Corbyn has been next to useless, Farage has shown his rotten colours, Cameron is going and his party is split from top to bottom, the Lib Dems had an OK campaign, but are still years away from any recovery... So, a realignment but of what and for what?
I confess I am already feeling a slight lightening of spirit.
So we lost. So it goes The fight will be resumed in different ways, after the summer, and we can make the REMAINERS suffer, for ever, for their treachery and cowardice. Because they are traitors and cowards. That is what they ARE.
Meantime, let's get back to work, football, cricket, having sex, and sleep.
The postal votes started being returned during peak Leave
We have no idea what is about to happen.
However I do hope that we can be friends afterwards and make what ever the electorate give us work.
Amen to that. We're British after all.
I don't think that's true. There's Little England and there are the Metropolitans. Tomorrow decides who's in charge for the next few years. The losers are not going to be reconciled to defeat - Leavers because they are obsessed on the subject of the EU and Remainers because they think Leave's campaign has been despicable. Neither side looks remotely inclined to accept olive branches.
The chances of a reconstruction look minimal.
Some losers are not going to be reconciled to defeat, particularly if it were close. But they will be defeatable, since other losers (like me if Remain win) will want the matter put to bed for a long time.
It's only really going to be a problem for people like the Tory party, where the division is much more urgent.
That, and the question of how anyone is going to construct any kind of Parliamentary majority in the next few years.
This is my thoughts. I think we'll be back in coalition territory for GE 2020 (or before). And as the Lib Dems have 'previous' as a trusted coalition partner, I think they might benefit from having played the straightest bat during the election (or perhaps that's wishful thinking on my behalf). Lib-Lab pact to punish the Conservatives for the pain of the EURef?
Comments
I don't know much about UKIP politicians to know if there's someone waiting that can have a much wider appeal than Farage but if there is such a person, especially when Cameron's renegotiation unravels and the EU comes for more money and sovereignty, the Tories will be in very serious trouble...
The whole point of "posh hotel that firm is paying for" is to have a bath in hot water that YOU DID NOT PAY TO HEAT. It's the whole experience. It's fun. WHAT IS THE POINT!!!!
Right, that's it, I'm nicking the towels...
Markets would have to be suspended in that event, surely?
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings®ionName=se&fcTime=1466636400
In thunder, lightning, or in rain?
When the hurlyburly's done,
When the battle's lost and won.
That will be ere the set of sun.
Night all.
It's one thing changing around the furniture or even the carpet, but ripping a bath out for a few nights!!!
Yellow early warning of rain
From:1800 on Wed 22 June
To:0600 on Fri 24 June
Updated 22 June at 10:16 Active
Although some areas will miss them, potentially intense thundery downpours seem likely to affect parts of the warning area from Wednesday late afternoon or early evening onwards into the early hours of Thursday or Thursday morning. Further scattered thunderstorms are then likely to break out from Thursday afternoon onwards into Thursday night.
Please be aware of possible disruption to travel and localised flooding as well as frequent lightning.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2643743
If people knew what Thatcher was going to do, she probably wouldn't have won. This time the FTPA means it won't be a problem.
She believes she is entitled to the office.
Her campaign slogan is “I’m with her.”
You know what my response to that is? I’m with you: the American people.
She thinks it’s all about her.
I know it’s all about you – I know it’s all about making America Great Again for All Americans.
Our country lost its way when we stopped putting the American people first.'
Full text of today's speech, with citations. His best so far, imho...
https://www.facebook.com/DonaldTrump/posts/10157205624320725
Will be interesting to see what MORI has to say in the morning but the only poll that counts is still ahead.
Remember, when you walk into that polling station:
Take back control. Vote Leave.
Happy voting.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/22/eu-referendum-what-the-world-is-saying---bild-betting-on-remain/
Or, hilariously, they might be 10k down the drain. Heres hoping - goodnight folks.
Tomorrow is independence day.
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/donald-trump-attacks-hillary-clinton-224679#ixzz4CM6nFTjc
But you are right these wounds won't heal easily. What riles me the most is after years of the brexiters calling Cameron and Co traitors and quislings and opposing everything they said and did, then to start to crying about of a couple of insults clutching their skirts and getting the vapours was so hypocritical it made me pretty darn cross.
If remain lose it'd serve Boris and Co right if Osborne and Cameron did resign immediately and let the Brexiters own the aftermath. I'm sure they could deploy their superior economic plan and negotiate a smooth EU exit plan and superior trade agreement with barely a ripple in the markets and no need for any emergency budgets.
Oh no wait Gove and Boris want them to stay on, for stability sake. Or the fact they don't have a f--ing clue what they'd do. Maybe Gove feels he could wing it after we don't need to listen to experts.
If Leave win tomorrow it will be ironic that Britain was always the biggest cheerleader pushing for expansion into the East and its this expansion and the migration wave into Britain as a result these last 12 years that will have caused Brexit.
You know I'm actually mildly Eurosceptic and in reality so is Cameron and most of the Tory Party. But for the true believers there is no position that is pure enough, It's an ever moving feast where one years right on position is next years old hat and the following years dangerous reactionary,
The problem is that every problem in Britain is now due to Europe, there is not one thing that would not be better without Europe or they are stopping us doing something. It's a stupid monomania, well they are in for a shock if we do leave. Our schools will still be crap, we won't train young workers and still rely on immigrants . We still won't spend enough on new roads or rail and too much on benefits. Most our problems will still be there and we'll have added some new ones by making enemies with Europe.
This is a good article on the subject:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/02/labour-party-may-divide-before-conquer
Clacks is Scotland. Half the population is in one big town, the rest of the county is split pretty much evenly (on a population basis) between the wealthy in Dollar and Muckhart, the middle in Alva and Tillicoultry and the hovel that is Menstrie, while the various villages around the county tend to represent the agricultural and mining split of Scotland's rural parts while a small industrial base exists in Alloa.
It is now terminally crippled under FPTP and, unless the Tories literally implode, has no prospect of winning a majority in the decade or more ahead, a fortiori under Corbyn.
Re-alignment, combined with PR, would seem its only chance of exercising any kind of power for the foreseeable future.
But its not just about Labour, its bigger than that. England is completely disenfranchised under FPTP, the range and splintering of political opinion in England is being shut out. The fact that the SNP have got 50 odd MP's whereas UKIP has one and the Greens have one is untenable.
http://gu.com/p/4meh7?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard < More evidence of consumer jitters.
Turnout will suprise on the low side. Also the 10/10 certainty to vote suggests GE level turnout.
And they talk about lying down with dogs.
BETTING
Have looked for spreads on 2020 GE seats but found none. A buy at sub 10 will pay off, imho. Purely my sentiment of course
Then the question becomes what next for British politics?
Corbyn has been next to useless, Farage has shown his rotten colours, Cameron is going and his party is split from top to bottom, the Lib Dems had an OK campaign, but are still years away from any recovery... So, a realignment but of what and for what?