politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Two massive poll boosts for REMAIN with voting starting in
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Interestingly my model has a [45,55] vote share at ~ 100% ......
If it is outside this bound the polls were definitely wrong.
Or something
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Yes - they coexisted within parties before now even if it made no sense, and will do so again in time, even though it makes no sense.Jobabob said:Alastair's point is interesting.
Will the pro-business, internationalist, liberal, pro-immigration Europhile centrists and the traditional, nationalist, eurosceptics ever be reconciled?0 -
If England votes Leave and the Scots, Welsh, Northern Irish and Gibraltarians vote Remain in large enough numbers to keep Britain in the EU, let's have English independence
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Normally we move on after a vote... till the next one.Jobabob said:Alastair's point is interesting.
Will the pro-business, internationalist, liberal, pro-immigration Europhile centrists and the traditional, nationalist, eurosceptics ever be reconciled?
The thing about immigration is though, that even the remainers I know think it is outrageously high so clearly it isn't about immigration but the vast and unknown scale.0 -
I'd go further and say there's a very good chance the Conservative Party is finished as well. I have a hunch Farage will go, UKIP will elect someone much smarter and the Tories will face an existential crisis across England...Sean_F said:If Yougov is correct, then:-
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.0 -
Poor weather in Greater London region tomorrow - Remains great redoubt. Worrying.Richard_Nabavi said:A bit of an over-reaction to these latest polls, I think. As has been the case fairly consistently, phone polls are generally better for Remain, but nothing here alters the overall picture that Remain seem to be ahead only by a smidgen, and it could easily go either way. Whilst I think it likely that the phone polls are more accurate that the online polls, because of the self-select bias in the latter, this is an untested hypothesis and one shouldn't place too much confidence in it.
So, whilst my central forecast remains a narrow Remain victory - perhaps 52% or 53% - I don't think we should be surprised by any result within a few points of that.0 -
Whatever the result please at least make it decisive so it is clear cut no grey area or argument. This knife edge stuff is not going to solve anything and if it's just a tiny majority for remain then even worse.Sandpit said:Peter from Putney's tip on the 1% margin is looking like it might be value.
Might as well make money in the event that we end up with the worst possible result!0 -
In your wildest dreams. More likely they have placed the Tory Party in the Europhile, pro-business, pro-London centre groundPlatoSaid said:
An excellent summarySean_F said:If Yougov is correct, then:-
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.0 -
There is not mechanism to even know who they are let alone find them.Moses_ said:
Just wondering how we remove people who haven't managed to get a job in 6 months?BenedictWhite said:
Frankly they need to start by actually counting them both in and out. They currently do it by passenger surveys. Can you believe that? It's a joke.EPG said:
The Conservatives increased net inward migration to 350,000 annually, mostly discretionary non-EU migration, roughly doubling in the last three years. So by that logic, the Conservatives really really hate Labour voters.BenedictWhite said:
She was right though. Labour do not like their voters.FrankBooth said:The most striking thing for me was Isabel Hardman's comments about Labour wanting their own voters to stay in bed which had the Guardian fella laughing his head off.
Also, no Conservative voters as a rule don't, they sail in the same ship. It's the metropolitan elites who hate Labour voters.0 -
Quite. There's 10/1 on a GE this year and 10/1 on one next year with Shadsy.AlastairMeeks said:
That, and the question of how anyone is going to construct any kind of Parliamentary majority in the next few years.kle4 said:
Some losers are not going to be reconciled to defeat, particularly if it were close. But they will be defeatable, since other losers (like me if Remain win) will want the matter put to bed for a long time.AlastairMeeks said:
I don't think that's true. There's Little England and there are the Metropolitans. Tomorrow decides who's in charge for the next few years. The losers are not going to be reconciled to defeat - Leavers because they are obsessed on the subject of the EU and Remainers because they think Leave's campaign has been despicable. Neither side looks remotely inclined to accept olive branches.bookseller said:
Amen to that. We're British after all.BenedictWhite said:
We have no idea what is about to happen.TheScreamingEagles said:Another reason for Leave to be confident.
The postal votes started being returned during peak Leave
However I do hope that we can be friends afterwards and make what ever the electorate give us work.
The chances of a reconstruction look minimal.
It's only really going to be a problem for people like the Tory party, where the division is much more urgent.
How is Parliament not going to be completely logjammed after this vote, if half a dozen Tory rebels can sink any bill in the Commons and the Lords is hung?0 -
I wonder if Farage will sacrifice himself, like Salmond, and let UKIP do the "Doctor Who" trick (regenerating with the same core policies underneath, but with a fresher and more attractive face to pull in new voters).GIN1138 said:
I'd go further and say there's a very good chance the Conservative Party is finished as well. I have a hunch Farage will go, UKIP will elect someone much smarter and the Tories will face an existential crisis across England...Sean_F said:If Yougov is correct, then:-
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.0 -
If we do vote Remain, the membership will probably choose the most eurosceptic of the two they get to vote on.Jobabob said:
In your wildest dreams. More likely they have placed the Tory Party in the Europhile, pro-business, pro-London centre groundPlatoSaid said:
An excellent summarySean_F said:If Yougov is correct, then:-
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.0 -
95% of the Remainers on my FB feed voted for Miliband, and will vote for Corbyn,Jobabob said:
In your wildest dreams. More likely they have placed the Tory Party in the Europhile, pro-business, pro-London centre groundPlatoSaid said:
An excellent summarySean_F said:If Yougov is correct, then:-
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.
You are mistaking clinging to nurse for seizing the centre ground.
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I think you will find it is the Eurosceptics who are the internationalists.Jobabob said:Alastair's point is interesting.
Will the pro-business, internationalist, liberal, pro-immigration Europhile centrists and the traditional, nationalist, eurosceptics ever be reconciled?
The EU is both inward looking and protectionist. There is little about it that could be called internationalist.0 -
He might well stand down and concentrate on all that lucrative money he get's as a UKIP MEP.Danny565 said:
I wonder if Farage will sacrifice himself, like Salmond, and let UKIP do the "Doctor Who" trick (regenerating with the same core policies underneath, but with a fresher and more attractive face to pull in new voters).GIN1138 said:
I'd go further and say there's a very good chance the Conservative Party is finished as well. I have a hunch Farage will go, UKIP will elect someone much smarter and the Tories will face an existential crisis across England...Sean_F said:If Yougov is correct, then:-
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.
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It would be wise to realign politics on the lines I illustrate above. But it probably won't happenGIN1138 said:
I'd go further and say there's a very good chance the Conservative Party is finished as well. I have a hunch Farage will go, UKIP will elect someone much smarter and the Tories will face an existential crisis across England...Sean_F said:If Yougov is correct, then:-
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.0 -
The fun and games after a close result will come when the EU does something that Remain has told us cannot, will not happen. Lots of Remainer Remorse, lots of anger.RobD said:
Don't tempt me, TSE!TheScreamingEagles said:
And Mike's got another holiday coming up in a few months.RobD said:
Ooooooo!TheScreamingEagles said:
Still, even if I do vote Leave, I'm not obsessed, and so my membership of our party should be okay.
And you just KNOW it will happen. Weeks, rather than months.0 -
How many seats does that get them compared to the 299 that could be on offer to a party that appeals to those?Jobabob said:
In your wildest dreams. More likely they have placed the Tory Party in the Europhile, pro-business, pro-London centre groundPlatoSaid said:
An excellent summarySean_F said:If Yougov is correct, then:-
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.0 -
Steven Woolfe is available at 7/1Danny565 said:
I wonder if Farage will sacrifice himself, like Salmond, and let UKIP do the "Doctor Who" trick (regenerating with the same core policies underneath, but with a fresher and more attractive face to pull in new voters).GIN1138 said:
I'd go further and say there's a very good chance the Conservative Party is finished as well. I have a hunch Farage will go, UKIP will elect someone much smarter and the Tories will face an existential crisis across England...Sean_F said:If Yougov is correct, then:-
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.0 -
What about the fact that it's a union of more than two dozen different nations?MP_SE said:
I think you will find it is the Eurosceptics who are the internationalists.Jobabob said:Alastair's point is interesting.
Will the pro-business, internationalist, liberal, pro-immigration Europhile centrists and the traditional, nationalist, eurosceptics ever be reconciled?
The EU is both inward looking and protectionist. There is little about it that could be called internationalist.0 -
Your FB feed is not a balanced sampleMortimer said:
95% of the Remainers on my FB feed voted for Miliband, and will vote for Corbyn,Jobabob said:
In your wildest dreams. More likely they have placed the Tory Party in the Europhile, pro-business, pro-London centre groundPlatoSaid said:
An excellent summarySean_F said:If Yougov is correct, then:-
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.
You are mistaking clinging to nurse for seizing the centre ground.0 -
I think I hear the sound of flapping white coatsSean_F said:If Yougov is correct, then:-
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.0 -
Hope so.Danny565 said:
I wonder if Farage will sacrifice himself, like Salmond, and let UKIP do the "Doctor Who" trick (regenerating with the same core policies underneath, but with a fresher and more attractive face to pull in new voters).GIN1138 said:
I'd go further and say there's a very good chance the Conservative Party is finished as well. I have a hunch Farage will go, UKIP will elect someone much smarter and the Tories will face an existential crisis across England...Sean_F said:If Yougov is correct, then:-
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.0 -
That's a very narrow ground that Leaves millions of voters looking elsewhere.Jobabob said:
In your wildest dreams. More likely they have placed the Tory Party in the Europhile, pro-business, pro-London centre groundPlatoSaid said:
An excellent summarySean_F said:If Yougov is correct, then:-
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.0 -
With Corbyn in charge they could pick up lots of votes from the Labour RightBenedictWhite said:
How many seats does that get them compared to the 299 that could be on offer to a party that appeals to those?Jobabob said:
In your wildest dreams. More likely they have placed the Tory Party in the Europhile, pro-business, pro-London centre groundPlatoSaid said:
An excellent summarySean_F said:If Yougov is correct, then:-
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.0 -
Can't believe the national broadcaster, via news night, has just aired a 10min documentary style feature on the Boris-Cam historic rivalry! Narrated in sombre tones by Michael Cockerell, its aim was to make the viewer feel as if they wete watching a portrayal of some long gone political drama, a story where the villain was assumed to be known by him/her.
No need for spoiler alert for those who haven't seen!
I'm a leftie but can empathise with tories re beeb taking the fecking piss!0 -
I wonder if UKIP could get the mother of all boosts if it is say a 49.5-50.5 defeat as my model suggests....0
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Most of Leave's voters are anti-internationalistMP_SE said:
I think you will find it is the Eurosceptics who are the internationalists.Jobabob said:Alastair's point is interesting.
Will the pro-business, internationalist, liberal, pro-immigration Europhile centrists and the traditional, nationalist, eurosceptics ever be reconciled?
The EU is both inward looking and protectionist. There is little about it that could be called internationalist.0 -
Tell me about it. Could have done it next week, given this is literally the last chance they get to talk about the issues for the referendum!!suretheyreallthesame said:Can't believe the national broadcaster, via news night, has just aired a 10min documentary style feature on the Boris-Cam historic rivalry! Narrated in sombre tones by Michael Cockerell, its aim was to make the viewer feel as if they wete watching a portrayal of some long gone political drama, a story where the villain was assumed to be known by him/her.
No need for spoiler alert for those who haven't seen!
I'm a leftie but can empathise with tories re beeb taking the fecking piss!0 -
He would make a fantastic new leader.MP_SE said:
Steven Woolfe is available at 7/1Danny565 said:
I wonder if Farage will sacrifice himself, like Salmond, and let UKIP do the "Doctor Who" trick (regenerating with the same core policies underneath, but with a fresher and more attractive face to pull in new voters).GIN1138 said:
I'd go further and say there's a very good chance the Conservative Party is finished as well. I have a hunch Farage will go, UKIP will elect someone much smarter and the Tories will face an existential crisis across England...Sean_F said:If Yougov is correct, then:-
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.0 -
Sean's analysis is bang on the money of what happens in the event that REMAIN wins narrowly. In fact it could be a little too conservative in the terms of the sh*t storm that's going to be unleashed on the Conservative Party over the next few months.Roger said:
I think I hear the sound of flapping white coatsSean_F said:If Yougov is correct, then:-
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.0 -
Where about 10 people live.Jobabob said:
In your wildest dreams. More likely they have placed the Tory Party in the Europhile, pro-business, pro-London centre groundPlatoSaid said:
An excellent summarySean_F said:If Yougov is correct, then:-
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.0 -
The huge flaw in that analysis is that it assumes that the EU is the primary issue for Conservative voters and members, and that they divide neatly into two strongly-opposed groups on the subject. Both assumptions are wrong in my experience; most Conservatives are mildly unhappy with the EU. When they lean towards Brexit, they don't necessarily see it as without risk and downside, and when they lean in the other direction, they recognise the faults in the EU and are frustrated by them.Sean_F said:If Yougov is correct, then:-
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.
In practice, most Conservatives will accept whatever the result of tomorrow turns out to be.
(You've also glossed over the fact that a lot of traditionally 'left-wing' voters are voting Leave).0 -
Quite right. Exactly the same was said about Labour and unilateralism in the 1980s. In the end one side won, a settlement was reached, the losers shrugged their shoulders and everyone moved on.Jobabob said:
In your wildest dreams. More likely they have placed the Tory Party in the Europhile, pro-business, pro-London centre groundPlatoSaid said:
An excellent summarySean_F said:If Yougov is correct, then:-
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.0 -
Most of you will probably find this an odd analogy, but I always think of immigration as being rather like medication.
The correct amount of medication is beneficial to the patient. Too little, or too much can be harmful (e.g. digitalis).
I don't think that when the founding fathers put "Freedom of Movement" into the DNA of the EU that they ever imagined that there would be migration on a scale large enough to cause concern to host communities.0 -
And 8 of them virtue signal towards the Left anyway.KentRising said:
Where about 10 people live.Jobabob said:
In your wildest dreams. More likely they have placed the Tory Party in the Europhile, pro-business, pro-London centre groundPlatoSaid said:
An excellent summarySean_F said:If Yougov is correct, then:-
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.0 -
Worked well with IDS.....RobD said:
If we do vote Remain, the membership will probably choose the most eurosceptic of the two they get to vote on.Jobabob said:
In your wildest dreams. More likely they have placed the Tory Party in the Europhile, pro-business, pro-London centre groundPlatoSaid said:
An excellent summarySean_F said:If Yougov is correct, then:-
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.0 -
Trump's neat pivot on Clinton's inept "I'm with her" slogan...
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/7457330292896153610 -
Great to see you back!!Disraeli said:Most of you will probably find this an odd analogy, but I always think of immigration as being rather like medication.
The correct amount of medication is beneficial to the patient. Too little, or too much can be harmful (e.g. digitalis).
I don't think that when the founding fathers put "Freedom of Movement" into the DNA of the EU that they ever imagined that there would be migration on a scale large enough to cause concern to host communities.
EDIT: And YellowSub too.0 -
What? seriously as a centr right leaver, he deserved it. That poster was disgusting because he was conflating the issue of refugees with freedom of movement, as well as him saying if we stay it will lead to more sex attacks etc.Jonathan said:I do not like the way that Farage has been vilified, especially towards the end of this campaign.
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It's polling day and the TV/Radio broadcasting restrictions have kicked in. The Campaign is over.0
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He'd be my choice if I was UKIP-inclined.Tykejohnno said:
He would make a fantastic new leader.MP_SE said:
Steven Woolfe is available at 7/1Danny565 said:
I wonder if Farage will sacrifice himself, like Salmond, and let UKIP do the "Doctor Who" trick (regenerating with the same core policies underneath, but with a fresher and more attractive face to pull in new voters).GIN1138 said:
I'd go further and say there's a very good chance the Conservative Party is finished as well. I have a hunch Farage will go, UKIP will elect someone much smarter and the Tories will face an existential crisis across England...Sean_F said:If Yougov is correct, then:-
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.0 -
If you sound like little Englanders your leaders are chauvinists and your campaign was xenophobic even a blind man on a galloping camel would laugh at your description of yourselves as 'internatonaists'Jobabob said:
Most of Leave's voters are anti-internationalistMP_SE said:
I think you will find it is the Eurosceptics who are the internationalists.Jobabob said:Alastair's point is interesting.
Will the pro-business, internationalist, liberal, pro-immigration Europhile centrists and the traditional, nationalist, eurosceptics ever be reconciled?
The EU is both inward looking and protectionist. There is little about it that could be called internationalist.0 -
I worry that a 51-49 is going to end up in court one way or the other. The campaigns have both been a disgrace to democracy with bogus statistics, baseless scaremongering and abuse of process.Moses_ said:
Whatever the result please at least make it decisive so it is clear cut no grey area or argument. This knife edge stuff is not going to solve anything and if it's just a tiny majority for remain then even worse.Sandpit said:Peter from Putney's tip on the 1% margin is looking like it might be value.
Might as well make money in the event that we end up with the worst possible result!
I have my side, but would much rather it were a decisive 55-45 either way than a very marginal result. Also hoping for high turnout to add legitimacy.0 -
Conservative Party finished? I don't think so.GIN1138 said:
I'd go further and say there's a very good chance the Conservative Party is finished as well. I have a hunch Farage will go, UKIP will elect someone much smarter and the Tories will face an existential crisis across England...Sean_F said:If Yougov is correct, then:-
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.0 -
Europe is one issue...It's really not the be all and end all to most voters in non referendum times. You let your dislike of Cameron blind you a little I think. Anyway lets see what happens. If Leave wins it probably won't matter anyway.Sean_F said:
That's a very narrow ground that Leaves millions of voters looking elsewhere.Jobabob said:
In your wildest dreams. More likely they have placed the Tory Party in the Europhile, pro-business, pro-London centre groundPlatoSaid said:
An excellent summarySean_F said:If Yougov is correct, then:-
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.0 -
When you have one group of Conservatives on this site accusing Vote Leave of being partially responsible for the murder of Jo Cox, I'd say that's a division that won't be reconciled easily.Richard_Nabavi said:
The huge flaw in that analysis is that it assumes that the EU is the primary issue for Conservative voters and members, and that they divide neatly into two strongly-opposed groups on the subject. Both assumptions are wrong in my experience; most Conservatives are mildly unhappy with the EU. When they lean towards Brexit, they don't necessarily see it as without risk and downside, and when they lean in the other direction, they recognise the faults in the EU and are frustrated by them.Sean_F said:If Yougov is correct, then:-
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.
In practice, most Conservatives will accept whatever the result of tomorrow turns out to be.
(You've also glossed over the fact that a lot of traditionally 'left-wing' voters are voting Leave).-1 -
Quite. Thing is that it is now written in stone as an ancient wisdom that we must follow though we know not why...Disraeli said:Most of you will probably find this an odd analogy, but I always think of immigration as being rather like medication.
The correct amount of medication is beneficial to the patient. Too little, or too much can be harmful (e.g. digitalis).
I don't think that when the founding fathers put "Freedom of Movement" into the DNA of the EU that they ever imagined that there would be migration on a scale large enough to cause concern to host communities.0 -
A one-nation, Leave Tory leader would get 40%+ in the next election.Richard_Nabavi said:
The huge flaw in that analysis is that it assumes that the EU is the primary issue for Conservative voters and members, and that they divide neatly into two strongly-opposed groups on the subject. Both assumptions are wrong in my experience; most Conservatives are mildly unhappy with the EU. When they lean towards Brexit, they don't necessarily see it as without risk and downside, and when they lean in the other direction, they recognise the faults in the EU and are frustrated by them.Sean_F said:If Yougov is correct, then:-
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.
In practice, most Conservatives will accept whatever the result of tomorrow turns out to be.
(You've also glossed over the fact that a lot of traditionally 'left-wing' voters are voting Leave).
A remainer who fails to lance the Osborne problem will make it TCTC - even with Corbyn.0 -
As a card carrying Tory who voted UKIP in 2015 (the Tories had no chance in Liverpool). I will be voting soley on Europe - the Cameroon pursuit of power for powers sake is pointless. No tackling of the deficit, no BBC reform, broken immigration pledges and no real significant tax reform.midwinter said:
Worked well with IDS.....RobD said:
If we do vote Remain, the membership will probably choose the most eurosceptic of the two they get to vote on.Jobabob said:
In your wildest dreams. More likely they have placed the Tory Party in the Europhile, pro-business, pro-London centre groundPlatoSaid said:
An excellent summarySean_F said:If Yougov is correct, then:-
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.0 -
ITV weather for London showing heavy rain, thunder and lightning for tomorrow.0
-
-
I see Leave is tightening again - down to 4.20
-
Not good for us Remainers.Moses_ said:ITV weather for London showing heavy rain, thunder and lightning for tomorrow.
0 -
It's not odd at all, it sounds like common sense to me. Most people wouldn't have a problem with 50,000 migrants a year like we had in the 60s-90s.Disraeli said:Most of you will probably find this an odd analogy, but I always think of immigration as being rather like medication.
The correct amount of medication is beneficial to the patient. Too little, or too much can be harmful (e.g. digitalis).
I don't think that when the founding fathers put "Freedom of Movement" into the DNA of the EU that they ever imagined that there would be migration on a scale large enough to cause concern to host communities.0 -
It is tanking it down here and my girlfriend in Clapham phoned to say she hasn't heard rain so heavy in England before (she is not of these islands). Plenty of lightning thown in too.Moses_ said:ITV weather for London showing heavy rain, thunder and lightning for tomorrow.
0 -
I don't think so either, nevertheless I do wonder if the next realignment will see us go full circle from the original replacement of the Liberals with Labour, this time seeing the rebirth of the Liberals and the demise of the Conservatives. It all depends on which side of the Tory party wins the coming civil war.rottenborough said:
Conservative Party finished? I don't think so.GIN1138 said:
I'd go further and say there's a very good chance the Conservative Party is finished as well. I have a hunch Farage will go, UKIP will elect someone much smarter and the Tories will face an existential crisis across England...Sean_F said:If Yougov is correct, then:-
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.0 -
We just had a brief storm in Dorset - not before time, its so humid!0
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It came very close with Tony... But it endured because there was nothing credible on the right.rottenborough said:
Conservative Party finished? I don't think so.GIN1138 said:
I'd go further and say there's a very good chance the Conservative Party is finished as well. I have a hunch Farage will go, UKIP will elect someone much smarter and the Tories will face an existential crisis across England...Sean_F said:If Yougov is correct, then:-
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.
All it needs is for UKIP to get serious and the Tories are in very, very serious trouble, especially when the EU starts rolling back on Cameron's silly renegotiation as well as coming for more even more sovereignty and money from us, which we all know they will.0 -
Before polling starts at 7am?YellowSubmarine said:It's polling day and the TV/Radio broadcasting restrictions have kicked in. The Campaign is over.
0 -
Indeed. The moderate Cameroon Europhile Tory Party will be a formidable force.rottenborough said:
Conservative Party finished? I don't think so.GIN1138 said:
I'd go further and say there's a very good chance the Conservative Party is finished as well. I have a hunch Farage will go, UKIP will elect someone much smarter and the Tories will face an existential crisis across England...Sean_F said:If Yougov is correct, then:-
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.
And I don't write that as a supporter...0 -
The Tory party are really the experts at regenerating in Whovian style. Mixture of institutional memory, their historical basis in pragmatism (rather than having some underlying ideological underpinning that defines and may ultimately doom them), the rich (in multiple senses) and deeply rooted kind of coalition that they're built from.rottenborough said:
Conservative Party finished? I don't think so.GIN1138 said:
I'd go further and say there's a very good chance the Conservative Party is finished as well. I have a hunch Farage will go, UKIP will elect someone much smarter and the Tories will face an existential crisis across England...Sean_F said:If Yougov is correct, then:-
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.
UKIP on the other hand look more and more like the Farage Party, especially after the Unresignation. I thought the Salmond comparison very apt. UKIP had great chances - and their best one may lie in the next few weeks and months - but the way they are structured may mean they'll never take them.0 -
Not our style.Sandpit said:
I worry that a 51-49 is going to end up in court one way or the other. The campaigns have both been a disgrace to democracy with bogus statistics, baseless scaremongering and abuse of process.Moses_ said:
Whatever the result please at least make it decisive so it is clear cut no grey area or argument. This knife edge stuff is not going to solve anything and if it's just a tiny majority for remain then even worse.Sandpit said:Peter from Putney's tip on the 1% margin is looking like it might be value.
Might as well make money in the event that we end up with the worst possible result!
I have my side, but would much rather it were a decisive 55-45 either way than a very marginal result. Also hoping for high turnout to add legitimacy.
At least, not this Little Englander's style.
Who knows - there are a lot of metropolitan lawyers.0 -
Agree, UKIP's best result in terms of their future as a party would be England: Leave, UK: Remain. In fact England & Wales: Leave and UK: Remain would be even better for them.Pulpstar said:I wonder if UKIP could get the mother of all boosts if it is say a 49.5-50.5 defeat as my model suggests....
0 -
Back to 4.10
-
I really don't think a single one of my friends and acquaintances in the party are accusing anyone of anything, and certainly not that. Nor, for that matter, do I recognise this alleged anger against Cameron. The reaction from strong Leavers I know to some of his more imaginative arguments has been 'He would say that, wouldn't he?' rather than 'How dare he say that!'. And similarly in the other direction regarding claims by Boris or Michael Gove.Sean_F said:When you have one group of Conservatives on this site accusing Vote Leave of being partially responsible for the murder of Jo Cox, I'd say that's a division that won't be reconciled easily.
0 -
Where is the t-shirt manufactured?RodCrosby said:Trump's neat pivot on Clinton's inept "I'm with her" slogan...
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/7457330292896153610 -
Is there a poll coming at 1am or some stupid time?0
-
Maybe but I doubt it. The Tory Party always rally round their leader. My guess is that Cameron will fire Gove and Boris and other coat flappers and appoint a new cabinet and then patronage will set inGIN1138 said:
Sean's analysis is bang on the money of what happens in the event that REMAIN wins narrowly. In fact it could be a little too conservative in the terms of the sh*t storm that's going to be unleashed on the Conservative Party over the next few months.Roger said:
I think I hear the sound of flapping white coatsSean_F said:If Yougov is correct, then:-
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.0 -
Betfair have a disconnect of about 6/1 between Trump as president and Republican as president. That gap is either him being overthrown at the Convention, or taken out in some literal or metaphorical way between now and Novenmer.rottenborough said:0 -
London is not an island, if it rains in London at some point tomorrow it probably will elsewhere in the UK toorottenborough said:
Not good for us Remainers.Moses_ said:ITV weather for London showing heavy rain, thunder and lightning for tomorrow.
0 -
Patronage for a lame duck. Do me a flavour.Roger said:
Maybe but I doubt it. The Tory Party always rally round their leader. My guess is that Cameron will fire Gove and Boris and other coat flappers and appoint a new cabinet and then patronage will set inGIN1138 said:
Sean's analysis is bang on the money of what happens in the event that REMAIN wins narrowly. In fact it could be a little too conservative in the terms of the sh*t storm that's going to be unleashed on the Conservative Party over the next few months.Roger said:
I think I hear the sound of flapping white coatsSean_F said:If Yougov is correct, then:-
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.0 -
No as he has 390 more delegates than needed and 1000 more than Cruz, his closest rivalrottenborough said:0 -
Sat overlooking the houses of Parliament and the rain is starting to come down more heavily here now. Started about 2 hours ago. Clapham being just down the road of course means that heavy burst should get here pretty quick. How long will it last though? ITV local London thinks all of tomorrow and very heavy with bells and whistles.KentRising said:
It is tanking it down here and my girlfriend in Clapham phoned to say she hasn't heard rain so heavy in England before (she is not of these islands). Plenty of lightning thown in too.Moses_ said:ITV weather for London showing heavy rain, thunder and lightning for tomorrow.
Mmmm....0 -
Yes. Problem is, it's currently in the Colin Baker stage...MyBurningEars said:The Tory party are really the experts at regenerating in Whovian style.
0 -
It's hard to see any reason to involve the Courts as it's purely advisory.Mortimer said:
Not our style.Sandpit said:
I worry that a 51-49 is going to end up in court one way or the other. The campaigns have both been a disgrace to democracy with bogus statistics, baseless scaremongering and abuse of process.Moses_ said:
Whatever the result please at least make it decisive so it is clear cut no grey area or argument. This knife edge stuff is not going to solve anything and if it's just a tiny majority for remain then even worse.Sandpit said:Peter from Putney's tip on the 1% margin is looking like it might be value.
Might as well make money in the event that we end up with the worst possible result!
I have my side, but would much rather it were a decisive 55-45 either way than a very marginal result. Also hoping for high turnout to add legitimacy.
At least, not this Little Englander's style.
Who knows - there are a lot of metropolitan lawyers.0 -
No, forecast I saw said v heavy rain and thunderstorms for London, Greater London, parts of south coast, Kent etc. Rest of England ok. Showers in Scotland.HYUFD said:
London is not an island, if it rains in London at some point tomorrow it probably will elsewhere in the UK toorottenborough said:
Not good for us Remainers.Moses_ said:ITV weather for London showing heavy rain, thunder and lightning for tomorrow.
0 -
It could be worse. Labour has Sylvester McCoy.viewcode said:
Yes. Problem is, it's currently in the Colin Baker stage...MyBurningEars said:The Tory party are really the experts at regenerating in Whovian style.
0 -
There's something in the air. It's all very Martin Sheen and Dire Straits (West Wing fans will know what I mean).Moses_ said:
Sat overlooking the houses of Parliament and the rain is starting to come down more heavily here now. Started about 2 hours ago. Clapham being just down the road of course means that heavy burst should get here pretty quick. How long will it last though? ITV local London thinks all of tomorrow and very heavy with bells and whistles.KentRising said:
It is tanking it down here and my girlfriend in Clapham phoned to say she hasn't heard rain so heavy in England before (she is not of these islands). Plenty of lightning thown in too.Moses_ said:ITV weather for London showing heavy rain, thunder and lightning for tomorrow.
Mmmm....0 -
Odd.Mortimer said:Back to 4.1
0 -
Comres -"Those expressing a voting intention weighted and don’t knows reallocated by which they think would be better for economy) (n=955)."
I dont know if that makes sense-the issue is immigration.0 -
That's actually quite good. Emphasises Clinton is In this for herself, but trump isn't (not saying that's true, but it's a good line and approach)RodCrosby said:Trump's neat pivot on Clinton's inept "I'm with her" slogan...
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/745733029289615361
0 -
UKIP are too divisive, and like it or not there is a stigma attached to voting for them. Many Tories wouldn't touch them with a bargepole.GIN1138 said:
It came very close with Tony... But it endured because there was nothing credible on the right.rottenborough said:
Conservative Party finished? I don't think so.GIN1138 said:
I'd go further and say there's a very good chance the Conservative Party is finished as well. I have a hunch Farage will go, UKIP will elect someone much smarter and the Tories will face an existential crisis across England...Sean_F said:If Yougov is correct, then:-
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.
All it needs is for UKIP to get serious and the Tories are in very, very serious trouble, especially when the EU starts rolling back on Cameron's silly renegotiation as well as coming for more even more sovereignty and money from us, which we all know they will.0 -
Posted my prediction on the VoteUK forum earlier: also 50.5% Remain.Pulpstar said:
50.5% is my best guess.Richard_Nabavi said:A bit of an over-reaction to these latest polls, I think. As has been the case fairly consistently, phone polls are generally better for Remain, but nothing here alters the overall picture that Remain seem to be ahead only by a smidgen, and it could easily go either way. Whilst I think it likely that the phone polls are more accurate that the online polls, because of the self-select bias in the latter, this is an untested hypothesis and one shouldn't place too much confidence in it.
So, whilst my central forecast remains a narrow Remain victory - perhaps 52% or 53% - I don't think we should be surprised by any result within a few points of that.0 -
Much like the UN Convention on refugees. Both need revisiting for the 21st century.Disraeli said:Most of you will probably find this an odd analogy, but I always think of immigration as being rather like medication.
The correct amount of medication is beneficial to the patient. Too little, or too much can be harmful (e.g. digitalis).
I don't think that when the founding fathers put "Freedom of Movement" into the DNA of the EU that they ever imagined that there would be migration on a scale large enough to cause concern to host communities.0 -
But are you willing to bet Remainers will be more likely to brave it than Leavers?HYUFD said:
London is not an island, if it rains in London at some point tomorrow it probably will elsewhere in the UK toorottenborough said:
Not good for us Remainers.Moses_ said:ITV weather for London showing heavy rain, thunder and lightning for tomorrow.
0 -
If it's really close either way if the shit hits the fan in the next couple of years it will open all this up again. Cameron hoped to win 60:40 and the issue be dead for a generation.Sandpit said:
I worry that a 51-49 is going to end up in court one way or the other. The campaigns have both been a disgrace to democracy with bogus statistics, baseless scaremongering and abuse of process.Moses_ said:
Whatever the result please at least make it decisive so it is clear cut no grey area or argument. This knife edge stuff is not going to solve anything and if it's just a tiny majority for remain then even worse.Sandpit said:Peter from Putney's tip on the 1% margin is looking like it might be value.
Might as well make money in the event that we end up with the worst possible result!
I have my side, but would much rather it were a decisive 55-45 either way than a very marginal result. Also hoping for high turnout to add legitimacy.0 -
He can't The whole point of the Conservative coalition is to keep the B'Stards on side.Roger said:
Maybe but I doubt it. The Tory Party always rally round their leader. My guess is that Cameron will fire Gove and Boris and other coat flappers and appoint a new cabinet and then patronage will set inGIN1138 said:
Sean's analysis is bang on the money of what happens in the event that REMAIN wins narrowly. In fact it could be a little too conservative in the terms of the sh*t storm that's going to be unleashed on the Conservative Party over the next few months.Roger said:
I think I hear the sound of flapping white coatsSean_F said:If Yougov is correct, then:-
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.0 -
Is it?brokenwheel said:
Odd.Mortimer said:Back to 4.1
I thought moving out to 4.7 was odd - started using money I wasn't planning on wagering. But I proved too cowardly to take full advantage, as ever.0 -
Sounds like the Tories 1994-2007 (and, in some circles, all of the time).midwinter said:
there is a stigma attached to voting for them.GIN1138 said:
It came very close with Tony... But it endured because there was nothing credible on the right.rottenborough said:
Conservative Party finished? I don't think so.GIN1138 said:
I'd go further and say there's a very good chance the Conservative Party is finished as well. I have a hunch Farage will go, UKIP will elect someone much smarter and the Tories will face an existential crisis across England...Sean_F said:If Yougov is correct, then:-
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.
All it needs is for UKIP to get serious and the Tories are in very, very serious trouble, especially when the EU starts rolling back on Cameron's silly renegotiation as well as coming for more even more sovereignty and money from us, which we all know they will.
Stigmas can be removed.
0 -
More confused about why now?Mortimer said:
Is it?brokenwheel said:
Odd.Mortimer said:Back to 4.1
I thought moving out to 4.7 was odd - started using money I wasn't planning on wagering. But I proved too cowardly to take full advantage, as ever.0 -
He's said he'll go it alone, if necessary.rottenborough said:
GOP choice. Cyanide-pill or hara-kiri?
[if you believe the MSM]0 -
Forecast from Sky News is storms over East Anglia and London and the South East in the morning but easing by the afternoon and elsewhere reasonably dry so unless you can only vote in the morning and live in the South should not make much differencebrokenwheel said:
But are you willing to bet Remainers will be more likely to brave it than Leavers?HYUFD said:
London is not an island, if it rains in London at some point tomorrow it probably will elsewhere in the UK toorottenborough said:
Not good for us Remainers.Moses_ said:ITV weather for London showing heavy rain, thunder and lightning for tomorrow.
0 -
He's world-class at branding.kle4 said:
That's actually quite good. Emphasises Clinton is In this for herself, but trump isn't (not saying that's true, but it's a good line and approach)RodCrosby said:Trump's neat pivot on Clinton's inept "I'm with her" slogan...
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/7457330292896153610 -
When a lot of this stuff was written the vast majority of people never left their village their whole lives nor knew that much beyond it, be it in the UK or Africa.Tissue_Price said:
Much like the UN Convention on refugees. Both need revisiting for the 21st century.Disraeli said:Most of you will probably find this an odd analogy, but I always think of immigration as being rather like medication.
The correct amount of medication is beneficial to the patient. Too little, or too much can be harmful (e.g. digitalis).
I don't think that when the founding fathers put "Freedom of Movement" into the DNA of the EU that they ever imagined that there would be migration on a scale large enough to cause concern to host communities.0 -
Agree completely it's not our *usual* style - but have you ever seen such a vicious campaign before?Mortimer said:
Not our style.Sandpit said:
I worry that a 51-49 is going to end up in court one way or the other. The campaigns have both been a disgrace to democracy with bogus statistics, baseless scaremongering and abuse of process.Moses_ said:
Whatever the result please at least make it decisive so it is clear cut no grey area or argument. This knife edge stuff is not going to solve anything and if it's just a tiny majority for remain then even worse.Sandpit said:Peter from Putney's tip on the 1% margin is looking like it might be value.
Might as well make money in the event that we end up with the worst possible result!
I have my side, but would much rather it were a decisive 55-45 either way than a very marginal result. Also hoping for high turnout to add legitimacy.
At least, not this Little Englander's style.
Who knows - there are a lot of metropolitan lawyers.
We're expecting 31-32m votes, if it's within 1% I just can't see the losing side accepting the result after all that's happened in the campaigns.
I did ask, as did others, the other day if there was provision for a recount on the night or safe storage of ballot papers in the event of a challenge, but no-one could give a definitive answer.0
