Skip to content

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tissue Price on why he thinks that Brexit has already happe

SystemSystem Posts: 12,679
edited June 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tissue Price on why he thinks that Brexit has already happened

Though our relationship with the EU may seem to be bookended by referendums, it’s politicians who’ve made the big calls. Edward Heath took us in to the EEC in 1973, and the nation endorsed that decision three summers later.

Read the full story here


«13456789

Comments

  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,779
    First, but it's a pyhrric victory at 3am, like Remain.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,902
    Second like England, I mean REMAIN
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,902
    Nice article, BTW.

    Maybe Tony should have invaded the EU instead of Iraq?

    #EyeOffTheBall
  • John_N4John_N4 Posts: 553
    edited June 2016
    According to ITV, Jo Cox's birthday is going to be honoured worldwide on Wednesday.

    Is there no stopping these people? Maybe Remain tellers in polling stations can wear special armbands and sad faces? And who would want to vote Leave if it meant spitting on the memory of a pretty MP whom before she got murdered they'd never heard of?

    Do you know what? I wondered why the monarch hadn't got involved in the honouring of Jo Cox. My first thought was that she hadn't, because the general rule is that she is not seen to involve herself in House of Commons or other parliamentary stuff. Now it seems more likely that she or her advisers chose not to get involved in what was (and is) basically a Remain fest. Because they support Leave.

    Maybe Remain tellers can wear badges with pictures of Jo Cox on, "killed for what she believed in", and Leave ones can wear hats festooned with the front page of the Sun: "'Tell me why on earth anyone in their right mind would vote Remain', asks Her Glorious Majesty".

    Is that the faint smell of a lack of dignity? Or is it vomit?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Interesting header - tho I suspect it under estimates the EU's capacity for muddle & compromise....
  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    It's a good piece in it's analysis. Though I think it's painting in primary colours betrays the authors prejudices. Politics is about finding the synthesis or equilibrium point in a polity. What's clear is neither of the options on the ballot paper tomorrow is a synthesis of Britons views or an equilibrium point in the spectrum of views. If something is unsustainable it won't be sustained. If Cameron wins we'll be in permanent renegotiation and possibly Neverendum. If Leave wins watch the handbrake turn as Article 50 invocation is delayed and EEA membership is rebranded as withdrawal. Neither result will settle the question and our slow drift to the perifory will continue.

    What I think the author ignores is #1 That's more or less what's been happening since 1975 anyway. The British genius has been to negotiate opt outs that keep it in the titular club with a veto but be semi detached. The treaty changes the eurozone needs give plenty of deals to get British concessions written into. #2 In evolutionary terms the EU's greatest strength ( also it's greatest weakness ) is it's genius for fudge, compromise and can kicking. The eurozone needs a big can kicking a long way but the situation isn't Sui Generis. As I was told as a student the tower of Durham Cathedral bends about an inch in the wind. Anymore and it would snap. If it didn't bend at all it would shatter.
  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    Yvette Cooper receives Twitter death threat against family members

    http://gu.com/p/4mc5b?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard < not as serious as it sounds but still...
  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    For the first time in 18 years, I don't feel welcome in Britain

    http://gu.com/p/4ma6j?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard < We shouldn't exaggerate but it's been unlike any other election campaign in the UK in my lifetime.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    YellowSubmarine said:

    Yvette Cooper receives Twitter death threat against family members

    http://gu.com/p/4mc5b?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard < not as serious as it sounds but still...

    Wow, he really hates spam.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    John_N4 said:

    According to ITV, Jo Cox's birthday is going to be honoured worldwide on Wednesday.

    Is there no stopping these people? Maybe Remain tellers in polling stations can wear special armbands and sad faces? And who would want to vote Leave if it meant spitting on the memory of a pretty MP whom before she got murdered they'd never heard of?

    Do you know what? I wondered why the monarch hadn't got involved in the honouring of Jo Cox. My first thought was that she hadn't, because the general rule is that she is not seen to involve herself in House of Commons or other parliamentary stuff. Now it seems more likely that she or her advisers chose not to get involved in what was (and is) basically a Remain fest. Because they support Leave.

    Maybe Remain tellers can wear badges with pictures of Jo Cox on, "killed for what she believed in", and Leave ones can wear hats festooned with the front page of the Sun: "'Tell me why on earth anyone in their right mind would vote Remain', asks Her Glorious Majesty".

    Is that the faint smell of a lack of dignity? Or is it vomit?

    Don't know how anyone can claim this to be a free and fair election. But I guess it was to be expected.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Will this prediction come true on Thursday?

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/uk-must-join-euro-or-quit-eu-mps-told-130247.html
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Great article, Mr Price. Absolutely agree on the need for fiscal transfers if the EZ is not to collapse. And fully expect that fiscal transfers at an effective level will be too much for German voters, so EZ collapse will happen sooner or later. The UK has to have distance before then.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,769
    edited June 2016
    It seems pretty safe to say that he misjudged the eventual success of the Euro. But he was right about the emerging reality of European integration: there’s no way the Eurozone can survive without it...

    At the moment this is being erratically enacted via debt haircuts and interest deferment. But ultimately it requires Eurozone taxes and a Eurozone Treasury, and political integration to match.
    This is often claimed - it suits both the pro-federalists who want integration to happen and the antis who want a reason to leave. It may well be where things are headed. But as an economic proposition I'm not sure that it's right.

    A lot of countries don't control their own currencies, without getting fiscal transfers from the countries that do control them. Sometimes countries literally have large parts of their economies denominated in USD or some other currency, and many others have pegs to the currency of a larger neighbour, which has much the same effect.

    The thing about population movements within the EU creating vast stresses seems overblown; The thing most populists across the EU are getting the most traction on right now is movement of people from *outside* the EU, not people inside. They're usually not wildly keen on the latter either, but it's not the main driving force; If it was, Farage would now be using pictures of Polish plumbers not crowds of brown-skinned refugees.

    So while it may not be optimal and more integration (or going the other way and dismantling the Eurozone) may be a good idea, I don't think that it's obvious that it's going to happen. Debt haircuts and interest deferment are an easier way to get the same effect, so why would European leaders up for reelection insist on doing it the hard way?
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    A plea to Mike - last night's thread ran to over 1300 posts, making it very difficult to work one's way through, Over the next 2-3 days when the site will no doubt be exceedingly busy, would it be possible please to limit each thread to around half that number, by using "continuation " threads?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    nunu said:

    Will this prediction come true on Thursday?

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/uk-must-join-euro-or-quit-eu-mps-told-130247.html

    nunu said:

    Will this prediction come true on Thursday?

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/uk-must-join-euro-or-quit-eu-mps-told-130247.html

    "I think people in this country have had enough of experts" Michael Gove (Co-Founder Policy Exchange), Vote Leave.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    edmundintokyo said:

    Debt haircuts and interest deferment are an easier way to get the same effect, so why would European leaders up for reelection insist on doing it the hard way?

    But debt haircuts do not achieve the same effect. A system of fiscal transfers is (potentially) much more adaptive and responsive to macroeconomic needs, and also assists at the microeconomic level by providing stability and assisting in financial and investment planning. Haircuts are always way too late, after the economic damage has been done, and their terms are uncertain until the signatures go on the documents.

    So no, they don't achieve the same effect.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    nunu said:

    John_N4 said:

    According to ITV, Jo Cox's birthday is going to be honoured worldwide on Wednesday.

    Is there no stopping these people? Maybe Remain tellers in polling stations can wear special armbands and sad faces? And who would want to vote Leave if it meant spitting on the memory of a pretty MP whom before she got murdered they'd never heard of?

    Do you know what? I wondered why the monarch hadn't got involved in the honouring of Jo Cox. My first thought was that she hadn't, because the general rule is that she is not seen to involve herself in House of Commons or other parliamentary stuff. Now it seems more likely that she or her advisers chose not to get involved in what was (and is) basically a Remain fest. Because they support Leave.

    Maybe Remain tellers can wear badges with pictures of Jo Cox on, "killed for what she believed in", and Leave ones can wear hats festooned with the front page of the Sun: "'Tell me why on earth anyone in their right mind would vote Remain', asks Her Glorious Majesty".

    Is that the faint smell of a lack of dignity? Or is it vomit?

    Don't know how anyone can claim this to be a free and fair election. But I guess it was to be expected.
    Getting the excuses in early?
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited June 2016
    Under Google's search box today we have the words "In remembrance of Jo Cox MP".

    Headlined on the BBC's front news page we read "Jo Cox died for her views her widower tells BBC"
  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    peter_from_putney said:

    Under Google's search box today we have the words "In remembrance of Jo Cox MP".

    Headlined on the BBC's front news page we read "Jo Cox died for her views her widower tells BBC"

    It's an indisputable fact that some murders gets vastly more coverage than other murders. If you look at the factors that determine why the Cox murder scores very, very highly on the matrix. I actually share your frustration with the coverage but it was ever thus. As for the referendum I've seen no evidence the Coxgasm has moved the polls in any real way.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,880
    MTimT said:

    Great article, Mr Price. Absolutely agree on the need for fiscal transfers if the EZ is not to collapse. And fully expect that fiscal transfers at an effective level will be too much for German voters, so EZ collapse will happen sooner or later. The UK has to have distance before then.

    Morning. A good article from Mr Price, and a good reply. The issue is that of demos and culture. Until the richer nations of the EU feel sufficiently European to want to subsidise the poorer nations where paying tax is seen as optional and 35 hours is seen as a working week, then the EU will be subject to these stresses and strains.

    I agree that the UK needs to be either properly in or properly out - to keep fudging and can kicking helps no-one, especially the unemployed in the poorer countries.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,769
    MTimT said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    Debt haircuts and interest deferment are an easier way to get the same effect, so why would European leaders up for reelection insist on doing it the hard way?

    But debt haircuts do not achieve the same effect. A system of fiscal transfers is (potentially) much more adaptive and responsive to macroeconomic needs, and also assists at the microeconomic level by providing stability and assisting in financial and investment planning. Haircuts are always way too late, after the economic damage has been done, and their terms are uncertain until the signatures go on the documents.

    So no, they don't achieve the same effect.
    I said they achieve the same effect, I didn't say they're equally effective at it.

    There are three distinct questions here:
    1) Should the Eurozone do fiscal transfers instead of muddling along pretending and extending? (Answer: yes)
    2) If they don't, will the whole thing collapse? (Answer: It might but probably not)
    3) Will they do it? To which I think the answer is sort-of, but in half measures and hidden behind programs that ostensibly do something for the whole EU like clean energy or border security.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited June 2016
    Sandpit said:

    MTimT said:

    Great article, Mr Price. Absolutely agree on the need for fiscal transfers if the EZ is not to collapse. And fully expect that fiscal transfers at an effective level will be too much for German voters, so EZ collapse will happen sooner or later. The UK has to have distance before then.

    Morning. A good article from Mr Price, and a good reply. The issue is that of demos and culture. Until the richer nations of the EU feel sufficiently European to want to subsidise the poorer nations where paying tax is seen as optional and 35 hours is seen as a working week, then the EU will be subject to these stresses and strains.

    I agree that the UK needs to be either properly in or properly out - to keep fudging and can kicking helps no-one, especially the unemployed in the poorer countries.
    The odd man out here is France, who despite being one of the richest nations in the EU, ardently believes in and relies upon the 35 hour week as well as receiving massive agricultural subsidies from the EU.

    According to a recent survey, France is also the country most desirous of seeing the UK leave the EU .... so there you have it!
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    edmundintokyo said:

    MTimT said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    Debt haircuts and interest deferment are an easier way to get the same effect, so why would European leaders up for reelection insist on doing it the hard way?

    But debt haircuts do not achieve the same effect. A system of fiscal transfers is (potentially) much more adaptive and responsive to macroeconomic needs, and also assists at the microeconomic level by providing stability and assisting in financial and investment planning. Haircuts are always way too late, after the economic damage has been done, and their terms are uncertain until the signatures go on the documents.

    So no, they don't achieve the same effect.
    I said they achieve the same effect, I didn't say they're equally effective at it.

    There are three distinct questions here:
    1) Should the Eurozone do fiscal transfers instead of muddling along pretending and extending? (Answer: yes)
    2) If they don't, will the whole thing collapse? (Answer: It might but probably not)
    3) Will they do it? To which I think the answer is sort-of, but in half measures and hidden behind programs that ostensibly do something for the whole EU like clean energy or border security.
    And I am saying it is not the same effect. There is a qualitative difference between something that helps maintain a healthy economy by providing stability to permit planning and wise investment, and something that only reacts once the horse has bolted the stable.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,769
    MTimT said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    MTimT said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    Debt haircuts and interest deferment are an easier way to get the same effect, so why would European leaders up for reelection insist on doing it the hard way?

    But debt haircuts do not achieve the same effect. A system of fiscal transfers is (potentially) much more adaptive and responsive to macroeconomic needs, and also assists at the microeconomic level by providing stability and assisting in financial and investment planning. Haircuts are always way too late, after the economic damage has been done, and their terms are uncertain until the signatures go on the documents.

    So no, they don't achieve the same effect.
    I said they achieve the same effect, I didn't say they're equally effective at it.

    There are three distinct questions here:
    1) Should the Eurozone do fiscal transfers instead of muddling along pretending and extending? (Answer: yes)
    2) If they don't, will the whole thing collapse? (Answer: It might but probably not)
    3) Will they do it? To which I think the answer is sort-of, but in half measures and hidden behind programs that ostensibly do something for the whole EU like clean energy or border security.
    And I am saying it is not the same effect. There is a qualitative difference between something that helps maintain a healthy economy by providing stability to permit planning and wise investment, and something that only reacts once the horse has bolted the stable.
    I don't think that's really true. For example, the EU is implicitly backing Spanish and Portuguese debt, which allows them to borrow cheaply instead of having a crisis and much deeper austerity. This has the same effect as just sending them money.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Morning all.

    Matt hits the spot. :lol:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/06/matt-cartoons-june-2016/
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Allison Pearson, also in The Daily Telegraph:

    J is for… Jean-Claude Juncker. The unelected President of the European Commission and the embodiment of Brussels’s undemocratic, elitist tendencies. Explaining how the EU introduced the euro to unwilling member states, Juncker explained: “We decide on something, leave it lying around and wait and see what happens. If no one kicks up a fuss, because most people don’t understand what has been decided, we continue step by step until there is no turning back.” Juncker is basically Sepp Blatter with A-levels.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    edmundintokyo said:

    MTimT said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    MTimT said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    Debt haircuts and interest deferment are an easier way to get the same effect, so why would European leaders up for reelection insist on doing it the hard way?

    But debt haircuts do not achieve the same effect. A system of fiscal transfers is (potentially) much more adaptive and responsive to macroeconomic needs, and also assists at the microeconomic level by providing stability and assisting in financial and investment planning. Haircuts are always way too late, after the economic damage has been done, and their terms are uncertain until the signatures go on the documents.

    So no, they don't achieve the same effect.
    I said they achieve the same effect, I didn't say they're equally effective at it.

    There are three distinct questions here:
    1) Should the Eurozone do fiscal transfers instead of muddling along pretending and extending? (Answer: yes)
    2) If they don't, will the whole thing collapse? (Answer: It might but probably not)
    3) Will they do it? To which I think the answer is sort-of, but in half measures and hidden behind programs that ostensibly do something for the whole EU like clean energy or border security.
    And I am saying it is not the same effect. There is a qualitative difference between something that helps maintain a healthy economy by providing stability to permit planning and wise investment, and something that only reacts once the horse has bolted the stable.
    I don't think that's really true. For example, the EU is implicitly backing Spanish and Portuguese debt, which allows them to borrow cheaply instead of having a crisis and much deeper austerity. This has the same effect as just sending them money.
    But we were talking about haircuts and interest deferments, not the other aspects of monetary union. I agree that cheap money can be useful. It can also be a problem in and of itself - on both a national and a personal level.

    Anyways, have to hit the sack - 1 am here. Always good to chat, Edmund. Even when we don't agree, I respect you as one of the more serious posters on here, whose views I should consider fully.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Interesting thread, thanks @Tissue_Price.

    I can't help feeling that whilst TeamLeave have brought up the fiscal transfer issue re bail-outs/migrants - they haven't made enough of it. Naturally, TeamRemain have avoided the whole subject.

    Sure we can all plan better campaigns with 2020 hindsight, and we will do here!
  • Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    peter_from_putney said:

    Under Google's search box today we have the words "In remembrance of Jo Cox MP".

    Headlined on the BBC's front news page we read "Jo Cox died for her views her widower tells BBC"

    And in a banner under Winning Here on this site there is "Wipe the smile of their faces, vote leave, labour leave"

    :)
  • Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    FWIW - the impromptu "is he resigining" press speech yesterday emoved any doubts for me that its all over and leave are going to win.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    PlatoSaid said:

    Interesting thread, thanks @Tissue_Price.

    I can't help feeling that whilst TeamLeave have brought up the fiscal transfer issue re bail-outs/migrants - they haven't made enough of it. Naturally, TeamRemain have avoided the whole subject.

    Sure we can all plan better campaigns with 2020 hindsight, and we will do here!

    Yes, hindsight is a wonderful thing, with hindsight.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    FWIW - the impromptu "is he resigining" press speech yesterday removed any doubts for me that its all over and leave are going to win.

    I didn't see much coverage anywhere of the PM's podium plea - apart from the actual event, it barely got a mention afterwards.

    Did it get much on the 6pm news?
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    "Twenty years ago a TV satire, The Day Today, imagined Question Time coming live from Wembley. Last night it actually happened – a political discussion in front of 6,000 screaming fans. Reithian values on acid!

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3653564/Question-Time-Wembley-happily-no-action-replays-QUENTIN-LETTS-night-PM-free-TV-clashes.html#ixzz4CHbQ12zi

  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    PlatoSaid said:

    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    FWIW - the impromptu "is he resigining" press speech yesterday removed any doubts for me that its all over and leave are going to win.

    I didn't see much coverage anywhere of the PM's podium plea - apart from the actual event, it barely got a mention afterwards.

    Did it get much on the 6pm news?
    I didn't see it or hear about it either, although we PBers have long been anticipating such a move by Dave. Perhaps the BBC, Sky, etc decided against giving it much coverage for fear of being accused of unbalanced coverage (haha, haha, chortle, haha, haha, etc.)
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    peter_from_putney said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    FWIW - the impromptu "is he resigining" press speech yesterday removed any doubts for me that its all over and leave are going to win.

    I didn't see much coverage anywhere of the PM's podium plea - apart from the actual event, it barely got a mention afterwards.

    Did it get much on the 6pm news?
    I didn't see it or hear about it either, although we PBers have long been anticipating such a move by Dave. Perhaps the BBC, Sky, etc decided against giving it much coverage for fear of being accused of unbalanced coverage (haha, haha, chortle, haha, haha, etc.)
    :lol:

    If we do win this - the looks on some faces will be priceless. I see another bog roll of business leaders have signed a Remain letter. I'm wondering what Leave are planning bar Boris wearing a hairnet. The workers at Billingsgate are 90% Leave which was a nice thing to wake up to.
  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/#/politics/event/27774074/market?marketId=1.118739911 The current Betfair prices on In/Out.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    peter_from_putney said:

    Sandpit said:

    MTimT said:

    Great article, Mr Price. Absolutely agree on the need for fiscal transfers if the EZ is not to collapse. And fully expect that fiscal transfers at an effective level will be too much for German voters, so EZ collapse will happen sooner or later. The UK has to have distance before then.

    Morning. A good article from Mr Price, and a good reply. The issue is that of demos and culture. Until the richer nations of the EU feel sufficiently European to want to subsidise the poorer nations where paying tax is seen as optional and 35 hours is seen as a working week, then the EU will be subject to these stresses and strains.

    I agree that the UK needs to be either properly in or properly out - to keep fudging and can kicking helps no-one, especially the unemployed in the poorer countries.
    According to a recent survey, France is also the country most desirous of seeing the UK leave the EU .... so there you have it!
    REMAIN to p*ss off the French! You know it makes sense!
  • Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    YellowSubmarine said:

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/#/politics/event/27774074/market?marketId=1.118739911 The current Betfair prices on In/Out.

    So roughly eleven times as much money on remain as leave despite 69% of bets being on leave.

    The wealthy want remain and are betting on it skewing the odds.Who'd a thought it.....
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited June 2016
    YellowSubmarine said:

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/#/politics/event/27774074/market?marketId=1.118739911 The current Betfair prices on In/Out.

    The value of matched bets on Betfair's main referendum market nears £45 million. Am I right in tinking that Betfair collects 5% commission on the winning 50% side of these bets, i.e. around £1.125 million and counting?
    Betfair ..... an innovative, world-beating British business.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,451
    peter_from_putney said:

    Under Google's search box today we have the words "In remembrance of Jo Cox MP".

    Headlined on the BBC's front news page we read "Jo Cox died for her views her widower tells BBC"

    Did Jo Cox's husband not say that? If not, what's the problem?
  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    peter_from_putney said:

    YellowSubmarine said:

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/#/politics/event/27774074/market?marketId=1.118739911 The current Betfair prices on In/Out.

    The value of matched bets on Betfair's main referendum market nears £45 million. Am I right in tinking that Betfair collects 5% commission on the winning 50% side of these bets, i.e. around £1.125 million and counting?
    Betfair ..... an innovative, world-beating British business.
    That's my understanding of it Peter.
  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    YellowSubmarine said:

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/#/politics/event/27774074/market?marketId=1.118739911 The current Betfair prices on In/Out.

    So roughly eleven times as much money on remain as leave despite 69% of bets being on leave.

    The wealthy want remain and are betting on it skewing the odds.Who'd a thought it.....
    Certainly as an exchange not a bookmaker it's entirely sentiment based.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    YellowSubmarine said:

    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    YellowSubmarine said:

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/#/politics/event/27774074/market?marketId=1.118739911 The current Betfair prices on In/Out.

    So roughly eleven times as much money on remain as leave despite 69% of bets being on leave.

    The wealthy want remain and are betting on it skewing the odds.Who'd a thought it.....
    Certainly as an exchange not a bookmaker it's entirely sentiment based.
    Surely it's based entirely on an aim to make money?
  • Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    Did Khan really accuse Boris of 'Big Fat Lies'?

    Sounds like those history professors in the Mary Whitehouse Experience show.

    Did Khan also claim that Boris's Mum smelled of poo?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,376
    Good article Tissue Price. It has been a constant frustration for me that there has been so little discussion of where the EU is going and what we are committing ourselves to if we stay. Even last night it barely got a look in.

    FWIW I agree that ultimately in a single currency union with free movement there either has to be significant fiscal transfers to poorer areas or there will be people transfers to the wealthier parts of the polity as people seek the opportunities they do not have at home. Those countries that use the USD do not have freedom of movement with the US or their populations would be there.

    In the single market we are stuck. We don't want to contribute large fiscal transfers to the south and east of the EU so Cameron fought hard and with some success in capping the budget. But the price we pay is the inevitable movement of people wanting to get on from those areas exercising their rights to come here and work and we don't want that either, at least on the scale that it is happening at the moment.

    If Britain leaves the EU the main opponent to a larger EU budget will be gone (Germany opposes it too but likes to keep its head down about it). We will continue to trade with each other to very much the same extent as at present because it is in everyone's interests to do so but we will no longer be subject to free movement.

    Germany, the Netherlands and the Nordic countries will then have to decide whether they are content to have those from the south and east coming to them in even greater numbers or whether they would rather invest in creating functioning economies in those countries so people stay at home. That is their choice and it will be a harder one if the UK is not taking the strain of 150K or so of additional people a year from those less developed countries for them.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,258
    edited June 2016
    peter_from_putney said:

    Juncker is basically Sepp Blatter with A-levels.

    He has A-levels?

    And people say they're getting easier!

    (PS - a foreign politician aged around 60 with A-levels - proof of a successful export market pre-EU :smiley: )
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    not_on_fire said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    Under Google's search box today we have the words "In remembrance of Jo Cox MP".

    Headlined on the BBC's front news page we read "Jo Cox died for her views her widower tells BBC"

    Did Jo Cox's husband not say that? If not, what's the problem?
    You must understand that for some posters on here anyone supporting Remain is fair game - including Jo Cox and her family. Welcome to the new Britain.
  • Ally_BAlly_B Posts: 185
    peter_from_putney said:

    Under Google's search box today we have the words "In remembrance of Jo Cox MP".

    Must be a region specific thing because in Malaysia we only see the word Google and there is nothing written underneath.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited June 2016
    An interesting header, but a flawed one. The EZ does not cause population movements, indeed some of the biggest population movements are from non EZ countries to EZ countries. There are over a million Romanians in Italy and nearly as many in Spain. The Italian and Spanish economies have both had major difficulties over the last decades yet thesepeoples have found employment. There are also large numbers of Brits in these EZ countries.

    Economic migration is a worldwide phenomenon, and the line between this and political persecution is blurred. The migration stresses on the Schengen zone are not the internal migrants so much as the external ones, and the same goes with us. The economic participation of EU migrants in the UK is far higher than that of non-EU migration.

    One might make the same case on a world wide basis that TP makes for Europe. Without world government and major fiscal transfers to poorer parts of the world continued migration is going to happen.

  • LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941
    YellowSubmarine said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    Under Google's search box today we have the words "In remembrance of Jo Cox MP".

    Headlined on the BBC's front news page we read "Jo Cox died for her views her widower tells BBC"

    It's an indisputable fact that some murders gets vastly more coverage than other murders. If you look at the factors that determine why the Cox murder scores very, very highly on the matrix. I actually share your frustration with the coverage but it was ever thus. As for the referendum I've seen no evidence the Coxgasm has moved the polls in any real way.
    The way Remain are trying to exploit this tragedy is just appalling. Not least because, to make some sense of how tomorrow's vote might go, it forces people to judge how public reaction to her death is being perceived.

    BBC Breakfast are going overboard. But it does need to be said that the presenters trying to claim massive public hysteria over the death while standing beside a few bouquets of flowers which are much smaller than the average roadside tribute does make me think that the public reaction is somewhat more muted than being portrayed.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Touching little story in Times about a war veteran who wanted his postal vote to count, if he died before polling day.

    Apparently, c3000 postal ballots will be cast this time by those who'll never live to see the result.

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/dying-war-veteran-s-final-wish-post-my-leave-vote-djfw3k2dl
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Btw, does anyone know what France's net contribution to the EU is, say compared with ours?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    YellowSubmarine said:

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/#/politics/event/27774074/market?marketId=1.118739911 The current Betfair prices on In/Out.

    So roughly eleven times as much money on remain as leave despite 69% of bets being on leave.

    The wealthy want remain and are betting on it skewing the odds.Who'd a thought it.....
    I always thought that some of the bigger stakes on Remain were bookies balancing their book rather than individuals staking thousands.
  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36592776 More Retail woe.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Good morning all.

    Tempers were a little frayed last night. I see from the victory laps this morning that Leavers are in a cheerful mood at any rate.
    DavidL said:

    it will be a harder one if the UK is not taking the strain of 150K or so of additional people a year from those less developed countries for them.

    Anyone who thinks nett migration will drop after Brexit is kidding themselves.

    Danny Finkelstein has a great article in The Times today, on the different between the politics and economics of Brexit.

    Boris has cynically played the politics brilliantly. Stoke up hatred of the other, and promise simple easy solutions to any problem.

    But the economics point in precisely the opposite direction to the politics

    Now think what this might mean in practice. To be a success outside the single market, to be attractive to businesses and to investment, we would need to be a European offshore low-cost competitive mecca for companies.

    We would need to have lower taxes on foreign rich people than the Continent, pay lower wages to unskilled people than elsewhere in Europe and cut public spending further to keep taxes down. We would need to make old people work longer. Oh, and we would need a huge influx of immigrants, both skilled and unskilled, to ensure that we had a very competitive workforce.

    We would also need new trade deals to replace the ones we had abandoned. In Europe, for all its faults, corporate interests are balanced by those of workers but in any other trade deal we would need to overlook these. Our regulation would have to be more attractive to corporate elites, not less. It would be vital that corporate lobbying was even more successful than it has been in the past.

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/nothing-adds-up-on-leaves-fantasy-island-mrgp80ntx

    In short, Brexit can be made successful for business and bankers, by exploiting the very people who are voting for it.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    peter_from_putney said:

    Btw, does anyone know what France's net contribution to the EU is, say compared with ours?

    France's net contribution is 0.33% of GDP compared to 0.23% for UK.

    http://english.eu.dk/en/faq/faq/net_contribution
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,376
    foxinsoxuk said:

    An interesting header, but a flawed one. The EZ does not cause population movements, indeed some of the biggest population movements are from non EZ countries to EZ countries. There are over a million Romanians in Italy and nearly as many in Spain. The Italian and Spanish economies have both had major difficulties over the last decades yet thesepeoples have found employment. There are also large numbers of Brits in these EZ countries.

    Economic migration is a worldwide phenomenon, and the line between this and political persecution is blurred. The migration stresses on the Schengen zone are not the internal migrants so much as the external ones, and the same goes with us. The economic participation of EU migrants in the UK is far higher than that of non-EU migration.

    One might make the same case on a world wide basis that TP makes for Europe. Without world government and major fiscal transfers to poorer parts of the world continued migration is going to happen.

    If the world had freedom of movement it would indeed happen. But it doesn't. Even so the migration of millions goes on both into the US and the EU.

    The same logic does eventually apply. We either help making their countries more tolerable places to live or we face a constant battle to keep them out. It is why this Leaver for one does not have a problem with our aid budget.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Today's stunts will include Boris doing 7 touchdown visits via helicopter - and LabourIn using light planes to pull sky banners.

    Remain claiming 41k volunteers, Leave saying 30k+

    Brexit are going for 3m doorknocks tomorrow.

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/johnson-takes-to-skies-for-last-stand-r0l7dtgd5

    I downloaded the VoteLeave app yesterday - it's rather neat.

  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    Last minute intervention from the Italian PM. < Don’t vote remain for us Europeans – do it for yourselves

    http://gu.com/p/4makz?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    PlatoSaid said:

    Touching little story in Times about a war veteran who wanted his postal vote to count, if he died before polling day.

    Apparently, c3000 postal ballots will be cast this time by those who'll never live to see the result.

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/dying-war-veteran-s-final-wish-post-my-leave-vote-djfw3k2dl

    Blimey - that's an interesting statistic.

    I must take extra care crossing the road tomorrow!
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,216
    DavidL said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    An interesting header, but a flawed one. The EZ does not cause population movements, indeed some of the biggest population movements are from non EZ countries to EZ countries. There are over a million Romanians in Italy and nearly as many in Spain. The Italian and Spanish economies have both had major difficulties over the last decades yet thesepeoples have found employment. There are also large numbers of Brits in these EZ countries.

    Economic migration is a worldwide phenomenon, and the line between this and political persecution is blurred. The migration stresses on the Schengen zone are not the internal migrants so much as the external ones, and the same goes with us. The economic participation of EU migrants in the UK is far higher than that of non-EU migration.

    One might make the same case on a world wide basis that TP makes for Europe. Without world government and major fiscal transfers to poorer parts of the world continued migration is going to happen.

    If the world had freedom of movement it would indeed happen. But it doesn't. Even so the migration of millions goes on both into the US and the EU.

    The same logic does eventually apply. We either help making their countries more tolerable places to live or we face a constant battle to keep them out. It is why this Leaver for one does not have a problem with our aid budget.
    Very fair point, but in the case of Syria it will take a bit more than aid to stop the flow.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,593
    YellowSubmarine said:

    Yvette Cooper receives Twitter death threat against family members

    http://gu.com/p/4mc5b?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard < not as serious as it sounds but still...

    She should try being Farage.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    peter_from_putney said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Touching little story in Times about a war veteran who wanted his postal vote to count, if he died before polling day.

    Apparently, c3000 postal ballots will be cast this time by those who'll never live to see the result.

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/dying-war-veteran-s-final-wish-post-my-leave-vote-djfw3k2dl

    Blimey - that's an interesting statistic.

    I must take extra care crossing the road tomorrow!
    It does rather make you think!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    She should try being Farage.

    I wouldn't wish that on anyone
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    OGH has Tweeted a really interesting chart from ORB.

    I have retweeted it.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,532
    In a belated response to David Herdson's article yesterday, there was a third option available to Cameron. Tell the other EU leaders that what they were offering in February was unacceptable, and resume negotiations at a later stage. That's what Lynton Crosby advised, and I wonder why Cameron didn't take that advice.
  • Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    Lowlander said:

    YellowSubmarine said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    Under Google's search box today we have the words "In remembrance of Jo Cox MP".

    Headlined on the BBC's front news page we read "Jo Cox died for her views her widower tells BBC"

    It's an indisputable fact that some murders gets vastly more coverage than other murders. If you look at the factors that determine why the Cox murder scores very, very highly on the matrix. I actually share your frustration with the coverage but it was ever thus. As for the referendum I've seen no evidence the Coxgasm has moved the polls in any real way.
    The way Remain are trying to exploit this tragedy is just appalling. Not least because, to make some sense of how tomorrow's vote might go, it forces people to judge how public reaction to her death is being perceived.

    BBC Breakfast are going overboard. But it does need to be said that the presenters trying to claim massive public hysteria over the death while standing beside a few bouquets of flowers which are much smaller than the average roadside tribute does make me think that the public reaction is somewhat more muted than being portrayed.
    I walked past where her houseboat is yesterday. At the top of the jetty was a little table with what looked like a book of condolences and a good few bunches of flowers.

    There were more than you would see at a typical funeral but not that much more - which made it unhysterical dignified and appropriate.

    Clearly the media and usual suspects dianafication attempts have failed and the public have been more dignified and level headed. As someone whos ancestral roots are firmly in Yorkshire, which is not known for hysterical overstating - quite the opposite, Im rather relieved.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,376
    edited June 2016
    Scott_P said:

    Good morning all.

    Tempers were a little frayed last night. I see from the victory laps this morning that Leavers are in a cheerful mood at any rate.

    DavidL said:

    it will be a harder one if the UK is not taking the strain of 150K or so of additional people a year from those less developed countries for them.

    Anyone who thinks nett migration will drop after Brexit is kidding themselves.

    Danny Finkelstein has a great article in The Times today, on the different between the politics and economics of Brexit.

    Boris has cynically played the politics brilliantly. Stoke up hatred of the other, and promise simple easy solutions to any problem.

    But the economics point in precisely the opposite direction to the politics

    Now think what this might mean in practice. To be a success outside the single market, to be attractive to businesses and to investment, we would need to be a European offshore low-cost competitive mecca for companies.

    We would need to have lower taxes on foreign rich people than the Continent, pay lower wages to unskilled people than elsewhere in Europe and cut public spending further to keep taxes down. We would need to make old people work longer. Oh, and we would need a huge influx of immigrants, both skilled and unskilled, to ensure that we had a very competitive workforce.

    We would also need new trade deals to replace the ones we had abandoned. In Europe, for all its faults, corporate interests are balanced by those of workers but in any other trade deal we would need to overlook these. Our regulation would have to be more attractive to corporate elites, not less. It would be vital that corporate lobbying was even more successful than it has been in the past.

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/nothing-adds-up-on-leaves-fantasy-island-mrgp80ntx

    In short, Brexit can be made successful for business and bankers, by exploiting the very people who are voting for it.
    Migration will not stop with Brexit but it will slow. We can be more selective about who gets to come here. Fewer Spanish and Portuguese waiters and the same number of qualified nurses, doctors and engineers.

    If the supply of labour is no longer infinite there will at last be some upward pressure on wages as the former CE of M&S pointed out. There will be a need to improve the productivity of the work force we have. Given the many failings of our education system that will not be easy and many employers will have to invest more in training our indigenous work force.

    The current model does increase GDP but not per capita. It is ultimately not a sustainable model because we do not have an infinite amount of room.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    DavidL said:

    Migration will not stop with Brexit but it will slow.

    Fancy a wager?
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    YellowSubmarine said:

    Last minute intervention from the Italian PM. < Don’t vote remain for us Europeans – do it for yourselves

    http://gu.com/p/4makz?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

    Right ...... OK ...... never thought of that ...... will do.
  • Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    Scott_P said:

    OGH has Tweeted a really interesting chart from ORB.

    I have retweeted it.

    So as many as half of 18-24s might bother to get out of bed according to a poll of 800 of which perhaps 50 of them were that age. So 25 students.

    Oh well, we mustnt deny people their straws to clutch at a time like this.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,593
    edited June 2016
    Scott_P said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    She should try being Farage.

    I wouldn't wish that on anyone
    Nor would I. He gets hundreds of death threats on twitter. Strangely they seem to go unreported in the Guardian.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,086
    Too close to call is still my feeling. I just hope that the undecideds swing it for remain.

    Very nervous...
  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    City A.M.: The EU referendum has shown just how irrational voters are. http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIwvP_C1SU > A basic primer for post Brexit politics.
  • Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    Ally_B said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    Under Google's search box today we have the words "In remembrance of Jo Cox MP".

    Must be a region specific thing because in Malaysia we only see the word Google and there is nothing written underneath.
    No votes to gain by peddling emotion over reason in Malaysia tomorrow.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Sean_F said:

    In a belated response to David Herdson's article yesterday, there was a third option available to Cameron. Tell the other EU leaders that what they were offering in February was unacceptable, and resume negotiations at a later stage. That's what Lynton Crosby advised, and I wonder why Cameron didn't take that advice.

    Back in February, it looked very likely that another migration wave would engulf Europe - that could be a significant factor.

    I've noticed that Sky has barely mentioned migrant stories in weeks - and didn't cover the Calais issues either. Twitter is full of complaints re the BBC also ignoring the same. It does look like a concerted effort to play this all down as much as possible.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,376
    Scott_P said:

    DavidL said:

    Migration will not stop with Brexit but it will slow.

    Fancy a wager?
    Not really, the timescale is too great. Even if we vote for Brexit tomorrow it will be at least 2 years before we ultimately Leave and at least another year, probably 2 before we had any meaningful statistics on immigration. Too long for a friendly wager.

    (By the way if even half the absurd remain claims are true there would be a massive reduction in immigration anyway through fewer opportunities being available but no one really believes that do they?)
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    DavidL said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    An interesting header, but a flawed one. The EZ does not cause population movements, indeed some of the biggest population movements are from non EZ countries to EZ countries. There are over a million Romanians in Italy and nearly as many in Spain. The Italian and Spanish economies have both had major difficulties over the last decades yet thesepeoples have found employment. There are also large numbers of Brits in these EZ countries.

    Economic migration is a worldwide phenomenon, and the line between this and political persecution is blurred. The migration stresses on the Schengen zone are not the internal migrants so much as the external ones, and the same goes with us. The economic participation of EU migrants in the UK is far higher than that of non-EU migration.

    One might make the same case on a world wide basis that TP makes for Europe. Without world government and major fiscal transfers to poorer parts of the world continued migration is going to happen.

    If the world had freedom of movement it would indeed happen. But it doesn't. Even so the migration of millions goes on both into the US and the EU.

    The same logic does eventually apply. We either help making their countries more tolerable places to live or we face a constant battle to keep them out. It is why this Leaver for one does not have a problem with our aid budget.
    The fact that we had (according to the ONS) 277 000 non EU migrants to the UK last year and 188 000 net non-EU migrants despite the best intent of Mrs May demonstrates that there is substantial freedom of movement in the world.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Lowlander said:

    YellowSubmarine said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    Under Google's search box today we have the words "In remembrance of Jo Cox MP".

    Headlined on the BBC's front news page we read "Jo Cox died for her views her widower tells BBC"

    It's an indisputable fact that some murders gets vastly more coverage than other murders. If you look at the factors that determine why the Cox murder scores very, very highly on the matrix. I actually share your frustration with the coverage but it was ever thus. As for the referendum I've seen no evidence the Coxgasm has moved the polls in any real way.
    The way Remain are trying to exploit this tragedy is just appalling. Not least because, to make some sense of how tomorrow's vote might go, it forces people to judge how public reaction to her death is being perceived.

    BBC Breakfast are going overboard. But it does need to be said that the presenters trying to claim massive public hysteria over the death while standing beside a few bouquets of flowers which are much smaller than the average roadside tribute does make me think that the public reaction is somewhat more muted than being portrayed.
    By August, when her usefulness to Remain is over, she'll just be the answer to a pub quiz question. And half of the contestants won't remember her name by then.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    felix said:

    not_on_fire said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    Under Google's search box today we have the words "In remembrance of Jo Cox MP".

    Headlined on the BBC's front news page we read "Jo Cox died for her views her widower tells BBC"

    Did Jo Cox's husband not say that? If not, what's the problem?
    You must understand that for some posters on here anyone supporting Remain is fair game - including Jo Cox and her family. Welcome to the new Britain.
    There is plenty of further information on Brendan Cox in the public domain, such as the dubious circumstances in which he left Save the Children. Google it.

    I am sure it won't be widely mentioned till after Thursday. As you said, welcome to the new Britain.

    His replacement at Save the Children -- why surely not ? Everyone's favourite ex-Prime Minister of Denmark, Helle Thorning-Schmidt. Mrs Stephen Kinnock.

    During Brendan Cox's tenure, Save the Children gave Blair a humanitarian Global Legacy award. This was withdrawn after a huge outcry.

    Whilst there is natural grief at the death of Jo Cox in such terrible circumstances, Brendan Cox was and is always a highly political figure with quite a back story.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    foxinsoxuk said:

    An interesting header, but a flawed one. The EZ does not cause population movements

    The substantial increase in Portuguese, Spanish, Italians and Greeks in London is not because they like the climate.

    The young Greek couple I met in Muswell Hill just a short while ago didn't arrive here because they thought working in a coffee shop was the best way to make use of their degrees.

    Immigration fantasists? Deniers? I don't know which is more apt.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,376
    murali_s said:

    Too close to call is still my feeling. I just hope that the undecideds swing it for remain.

    Very nervous...

    I hope the opposite but I agree with your assessment and feelings about it!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,258
    murali_s said:

    Too close to call is still my feeling. I just hope that the undecideds swing it for remain.

    Very nervous...

    Unionists thought that about Scotland. It didn't turn out that way. My guess is that many people will vote Remain because of self-interest but are embarrassed to admit it because it's not the cool side at the moment.

    Of course, if Juncker opens his mouth to give us the low-grade witterings of his drink sodden brain again, which will seriously annoy everyone, all bets on that are off!
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    23 hours and 28 minutes until the polls open.
  • Innocent_AbroadInnocent_Abroad Posts: 3,294
    edited June 2016
    The choice is not between the EU and national independence. It is between submitting to the EU and becoming an American colony.

    To those Peebies who quite like the sound of the latter, try this for size. Donald Trump would doubtless tell us that poor Jo Cox would still be alive if she'd carried and drawn a gun herself. Who agrees with that?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,376
    edited June 2016
    foxinsoxuk said:

    DavidL said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    An interesting header, but a flawed one. The EZ does not cause population movements, indeed some of the biggest population movements are from non EZ countries to EZ countries. There are over a million Romanians in Italy and nearly as many in Spain. The Italian and Spanish economies have both had major difficulties over the last decades yet thesepeoples have found employment. There are also large numbers of Brits in these EZ countries.

    Economic migration is a worldwide phenomenon, and the line between this and political persecution is blurred. The migration stresses on the Schengen zone are not the internal migrants so much as the external ones, and the same goes with us. The economic participation of EU migrants in the UK is far higher than that of non-EU migration.

    One might make the same case on a world wide basis that TP makes for Europe. Without world government and major fiscal transfers to poorer parts of the world continued migration is going to happen.

    If the world had freedom of movement it would indeed happen. But it doesn't. Even so the migration of millions goes on both into the US and the EU.

    The same logic does eventually apply. We either help making their countries more tolerable places to live or we face a constant battle to keep them out. It is why this Leaver for one does not have a problem with our aid budget.
    The fact that we had (according to the ONS) 277 000 non EU migrants to the UK last year and 188 000 net non-EU migrants despite the best intent of Mrs May demonstrates that there is substantial freedom of movement in the world.
    Not substantial but some. As I said last night we have a very large population of immigrants from the subcontinent in this country whom we have very foolishly not done our best to integrate because of the stupidities of multiculturalism.

    For as long as that persists and we accept that a British citizen has the right to marry whom they like and bring them here we will have substantial immigration. Oh, and there are a lot of immigrants who contribute necessary skills to our economy as well so they are allowed to come here.

    The world is not going to stop and nor is immigration but it will be managed in a way that it is not for EU citizens at the moment.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    chestnut said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    An interesting header, but a flawed one. The EZ does not cause population movements

    The substantial increase in Portuguese, Spanish, Italians and Greeks in London is not because they like the climate.

    The young Greek couple I met in Muswell Hill just a short while ago didn't arrive here because they thought working in a coffee shop was the best way to make use of their degrees.

    Immigration fantasists? Deniers? I don't know which is more apt.

    The rich in Greece country did not pay taxes (still don't), a succession of governments lied about the public finances. That is what buggered the Greek economy.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,258
    ydoethur said:

    My guess is that many people will vote Remain because of self-interest but are embarrassed to admit it because it's not the cool side at the moment.

    I've just thought, what a shocking indictment it is of the Remain campaign that people are being encouraged to vote for purely selfish reasons and haven't been given one really good excuse in favour of Europe to hide their choice behind.

    Are our politicians really so thick that they have learned nothing from Scotland?
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    DavidL said:

    murali_s said:

    Too close to call is still my feeling. I just hope that the undecideds swing it for remain.

    Very nervous...

    I hope the opposite but I agree with your assessment and feelings about it!
    For those of a nervous disposition, you could always take Laddies' offer of the winning margin being less than 1% either way, on offer at odds of 16/1. Should you be fortunate enough to win, you could celebrate or drown your sorrows, as the case may be, in exchange for a modest investment of say a quid.
    DYOR.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    murali_s said:

    Too close to call is still my feeling. I just hope that the undecideds swing it for remain.

    Very nervous...

    The die is cast. We are having a referendum on immigration. The side that promises to reduce it will win. That was always going to be the case.

  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    A combination of the welfare state and the highest minimum wage in Europe - several countries still don't have one - will attract increasing numbers, especially with more countries waiting at the gate.

    Where else in Europe can you manage to get £20k-£40k tax free from the government for your partner and children by undertaking 16 hours unskilled labour?

    The EU certainly did not pay enough attention to the need for social policy convergence prior to admitting new members and that is causing migration.


  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,376
    SouthamObserver said:

    chestnut said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    An interesting header, but a flawed one. The EZ does not cause population movements

    The substantial increase in Portuguese, Spanish, Italians and Greeks in London is not because they like the climate.

    The young Greek couple I met in Muswell Hill just a short while ago didn't arrive here because they thought working in a coffee shop was the best way to make use of their degrees.

    Immigration fantasists? Deniers? I don't know which is more apt.

    The rich in Greece country did not pay taxes (still don't), a succession of governments lied about the public finances. That is what buggered the Greek economy.

    Maybe so but the rich in Greece are not the ones working in our cafes. It is the victims of the incompetence of their ruling class. As you repeatedly point out Southam it is always so.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    Being in London I expected Remain to coast it last night, what struck me most was the response to the closing speeches, Boris' ovation was far far stronger than Davidson's. That hectoring Scottish accent put me in mind of Sturgeon, close your eyes it could have been her, big mistake by Remain.

    I never imagined a day before the referendum it could be this close, I hope that the enthusiasm of Leave versus the head shaking disbelief of Remain prevails. The mood on the country will soar if we Leave, of that I'm convinced, Boris talking of Independence Day struck exactly the right chord.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    My guess is that many people will vote Remain because of self-interest but are embarrassed to admit it because it's not the cool side at the moment.

    I've just thought, what a shocking indictment it is of the Remain campaign that people are being encouraged to vote for purely selfish reasons and haven't been given one really good excuse in favour of Europe to hide their choice behind.

    Are our politicians really so thick that they have learned nothing from Scotland?

    As if the Leave votes are not out of self interest. Come off it. Seeking to get what you want is an act of self interest. No-one is going to vote for what they oppose.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    SouthamObserver said:

    chestnut said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    An interesting header, but a flawed one. The EZ does not cause population movements

    The substantial increase in Portuguese, Spanish, Italians and Greeks in London is not because they like the climate.

    The young Greek couple I met in Muswell Hill just a short while ago didn't arrive here because they thought working in a coffee shop was the best way to make use of their degrees.

    Immigration fantasists? Deniers? I don't know which is more apt.

    The rich in Greece country did not pay taxes (still don't), a succession of governments lied about the public finances. That is what buggered the Greek economy.

    That made precious little difference to migration until the eurozone woes impacted.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    chestnut said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    chestnut said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    An interesting header, but a flawed one. The EZ does not cause population movements

    The substantial increase in Portuguese, Spanish, Italians and Greeks in London is not because they like the climate.

    The young Greek couple I met in Muswell Hill just a short while ago didn't arrive here because they thought working in a coffee shop was the best way to make use of their degrees.

    Immigration fantasists? Deniers? I don't know which is more apt.

    The rich in Greece country did not pay taxes (still don't), a succession of governments lied about the public finances. That is what buggered the Greek economy.

    That made precious little difference to migration until the eurozone woes impacted.

    But if people had paid their taxes and governments had been honest it would not have happened in the first place. The source of Greece's woes lie in Greece.

  • Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    Innocent_Abroad said:

    The choice is not between the EU and national independence. It is between submitting to the EU and becoming an American colony.

    To those Peebies who quite like the sound of the latter, try this for size. Donald Trump would doubtless tell us that poor Jo Cox would still be alive if she'd carried and drawn a gun herself. Who agrees with that?

    I do agree with that. She almost certainly would have been alive still.

    However I suspect a lot of other innocent people wouldnt be if you could buy guns and ammo at Asda with the weekly shop
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    chestnut said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    An interesting header, but a flawed one. The EZ does not cause population movements

    The substantial increase in Portuguese, Spanish, Italians and Greeks in London is not because they like the climate.

    The young Greek couple I met in Muswell Hill just a short while ago didn't arrive here because they thought working in a coffee shop was the best way to make use of their degrees.

    Immigration fantasists? Deniers? I don't know which is more apt.

    All those countries are ones with long histories of emigration, like the Irish and British. My point was that migration is not an EZ to bon EZ phenomenon, at least as many go the other way. Poland is not in the EZ and neither is Romania.

    Greeks with degrees will not be working in Coffee shops for long. Migrants are often skilled people in unskilled jobs initially, but soon climb the tree.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,258
    chestnut said:

    Where else in Europe can you manage to get £20k-£40k tax free from the government for your partner and children by undertaking 16 hours unskilled labour?

    You can't get that here either. Your point being?

    Let's all try and stick to facts and not the forgeries of the Express or the European Commission.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    DavidL said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    chestnut said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    An interesting header, but a flawed one. The EZ does not cause population movements

    The substantial increase in Portuguese, Spanish, Italians and Greeks in London is not because they like the climate.

    The young Greek couple I met in Muswell Hill just a short while ago didn't arrive here because they thought working in a coffee shop was the best way to make use of their degrees.

    Immigration fantasists? Deniers? I don't know which is more apt.

    The rich in Greece country did not pay taxes (still don't), a succession of governments lied about the public finances. That is what buggered the Greek economy.

    Maybe so but the rich in Greece are not the ones working in our cafes. It is the victims of the incompetence of their ruling class. As you repeatedly point out Southam it is always so.

    I completely agree. And leaving the EU will not change that. As you observe, it will also make no difference to immigration levels for the foreseeable future, if at all.

This discussion has been closed.

© Vanilla Keystone Theme 2025