Yup. I've never particularly liked Gove, but I never had reason to believe he was anything other than your usual opinionated politician. Now he comes across as quite unhinged.
It's not Gove who is coming across as unhinged but the Remainers who are deliberately misunderstanding a very simple argument to bash him.
After a breakfast meeting, I have scrolled back on this article's comments for two hours worth and not noticed much, if any response from REMAIN people to disagree with Tissue Price's article and to explain why. I may have missed some fundamental points from REMAIN supporters so could they please recap their contrary view or do they all agree with TP?
TC- this is the reply I gave to Casino earlier, and you would probably class me as remainiac
"Casino- rest assured Europhilia is going to kicked into the long grass for a long, long time after tomorrow.
Tissue Price is probably right...the EU will unravel in due course. But you know the markets more than most. If we jump first, the markets will punish us, severely. If we stay in and wait, we will likely be the beneficiaries of an EU implosion."
And my reply was that, even if he is right, these things typically play out over a much longer timescale than the doom-mongers predict. This may therefore be an issue for the younger generation rather than ours...
Chatting last night to my IoW aunt about summer holiday plans. She has to the best of my knowledge never left the UK, C1 turned housewife turned granny turned widow. Voting Remain - because that is what her husband would have wanted. Remain win Wight from beyond the grave...
Your argument is a bit like saying someone who used the phrase “ And Yet it Moves” thinks he’s Gallileo.
The phrase is valid in the context of scientific theories, not political opinions. It refers to the fact that a scientific theory can be proved wrong by one piece of evidence, but not by any number of contrary opinions. Gove's political opinion is not a scientific theory at all, let alone one of similar standing to Einstein's theories of relativity!
Parris sums up the elitist attitude of a few sad folk that back REMAIN who look down on all the rest. One step from using phrases such as the "great unwashed" and another step from the eugenics once advocated by lefties such as sidney and beatrice webb.
I've grown to detest him over the last year or so. Danny Fink is a complete gent. The gulf between them is enormous.
In some ways he is correct. Without the vast income that London brings in, the public services that we take for granted would be severly affected.
Yep, to coin a phrase - London pays in much more than it gets out.
And here's something else that may surprise non-Londoners: most people that live there are not effete metropolitans sneering at everyone else; they are ordinary people going about their daily lives. It's a fact that they work longer hours, have longer commutes and have higher housing costs.
In some ways he is correct. Without the vast income that London brings in, the public services that we take for granted would be severly affected.
He is right about the economics, but wrong about how hard Londoners work relative to the rest of the UK. Mind you this sort of nonsense is spouted by residents of major cities everywhere, it's not just Parris who thinks like that.
On the subject of Saffers in the UK and which way they are likely to vote, I'd like to draw upon the experience of my wife (In), her sister (In), and her brother-in-law (Out).
However, I think these views are distorted by my mother-in-law. My wife and her sister want their mother (Portuegese passport) to be able to stay in the UK. Their respective spouses (my brother-in-law and me) would rather she was in Portugal or South Africa or Diego Garcia.
Your misses a saffer too?
Our third date involved going to the "becoming British ceremony"
I'm really tempted to print that out and post it through 20 letterboxes this evening (I'm in Derbyshire). As you say, people should be exposed to uncomfortable truths
"someone told me the armed forces are 90% for leave though. Have you built that in?"
How does that make any sense? Troops are mostly young and so fall into the more pro remain demographic if anything.
I guess because they are not primarily the sons and daughters of the pampered middle classes.
I think you may be basing your judgement on half remembered Rudyard Kipling poems rather than any actual facts. But if my extended WWC family is anything to go by then yes the older ones are rather brexity and the younger ones are for remain. So I think it is quite likely that youth trumps class as a voting predictor. I don't know anyone serving at the moment but I have never picked up any indication in the past that soldiers view things any differently to anyone else. They are just people whose job requires them to wear a uniform.
I do remember a Poem from Kipling about politicians, though.
I could not dig: I dared not rob: Therefore I lied to please the mob. Now all my lies are proved untrue And I must face the men I slew. What tale shall serve me here among Mine angry and defrauded young?
Is this the kind of message which leads mentally disturbed people to kill politicians?
Chatting last night to my IoW aunt about summer holiday plans. She has to the best of my knowledge never left the UK, C1 turned housewife turned granny turned widow. Voting Remain - because that is what her husband would have wanted. Remain win Wight from beyond the grave...
The ORB poll shows a big increase of the young in certainty to vote fro 30% too 50% and big fall in 65+ showing a fall to 60%. Will that be likely to happen?
Looks like a lot of older ones lied and said remain or won't vote after that murder.
Parris sums up the elitist attitude of a few sad folk that back REMAIN who look down on all the rest. One step from using phrases such as the "great unwashed" and another step from the eugenics once advocated by lefties such as sidney and beatrice webb.
I've grown to detest him over the last year or so. Danny Fink is a complete gent. The gulf between them is enormous.
In some ways he is correct. Without the vast income that London brings in, the public services that we take for granted would be severly affected.
Yep, to coin a phrase - London pays in much more than it gets out.
And here's something else that may surprise non-Londoners: most people that live there are not effete metropolitans sneering at everyone else; they are ordinary people going about their daily lives. It's a fact that they work longer hours, have longer commutes and have higher housing costs.
That is what being a country is about - there are fiscal transfers from wealthy to less wealthy areas. This does not happen effectively at the European level because Europe is not a country. London has absolutely no justification to become "independent" imo. But it's a barmy subject anyway.
Chatting last night to my IoW aunt about summer holiday plans. She has to the best of my knowledge never left the UK, C1 turned housewife turned granny turned widow. Voting Remain - because that is what her husband would have wanted. Remain win Wight from beyond the grave...
IoW will be at least 60% Leave IMHO.
It's in the Ladbrokes market...
Looking at the age differentials, we'd expect 55-60% Leave (Survation/YouGov respectively). However looking at wealth/class the picture is probably different.
The ORB poll shows a big increase of the young in certainty to vote fro 30% too 50% and big fall in 65+ showing a fall to 60%. Will that be likely to happen?
Looks like a lot of older ones lied and said remain or won't vote after that murder.
The first may be correct; the second isn't.
I wonder how much impact the worldwide mourning will have tonight. It is clearly to send a political message.
Parris sums up the elitist attitude of a few sad folk that back REMAIN who look down on all the rest. One step from using phrases such as the "great unwashed" and another step from the eugenics once advocated by lefties such as sidney and beatrice webb.
I've grown to detest him over the last year or so. Danny Fink is a complete gent. The gulf between them is enormous.
In some ways he is correct. Without the vast income that London brings in, the public services that we take for granted would be severly affected.
Yep, to coin a phrase - London pays in much more than it gets out.
And here's something else that may surprise non-Londoners: most people that live there are not effete metropolitans sneering at everyone else; they are ordinary people going about their daily lives. It's a fact that they work longer hours, have longer commutes and have higher housing costs.
That is what being a country is about - there are fiscal transfers from wealthy to less wealthy areas. This does not happen effectively at the European level because Europe is not a country. London has absolutely no justification to become "independent" imo. But it's a barmy subject anyway.
If the clear majority of people in London wish their city to be separate country, why should they not have the right of self determination too?
The ORB poll shows a big increase of the young in certainty to vote fro 30% too 50% and big fall in 65+ showing a fall to 60%. Will that be likely to happen?
Looks like a lot of older ones lied and said remain or won't vote after that murder.
The first may be correct; the second isn't.
I wonder how much impact the worldwide mourning will have tonight. It is clearly to send a political message.
It will be heavily reported.
It's live on Sky from 4pmish. I'll be doing something else.
The ORB poll shows a big increase of the young in certainty to vote fro 30% too 50% and big fall in 65+ showing a fall to 60%. Will that be likely to happen?
A rise of that size for young people. No, I don't think so.
but the fall for 65+ was about a 10% point fall aswell, that can't be right making this ORB poll useless (fingers crossed)?
Yup. I've never particularly liked Gove, but I never had reason to believe he was anything other than your usual opinionated politician. Now he comes across as quite unhinged.
It's not Gove who is coming across as unhinged but the Remainers who are deliberately misunderstanding a very simple argument to bash him.
It's not a simple argument; it's a nonsensical argument because it assumes some sort of equivalence between political opinion and scientific theory for its validity.
The phrase is valid in the context of scientific theories, not political opinions. It refers to the fact that a scientific theory can be proved wrong by one piece of evidence, but not by any number of contrary opinions. Gove's political opinion is not a scientific theory at all, let alone one of similar standing to Einstein's theories of relativity!
When Gove quotes Einstein, that means he thinks he’s Einstein.
When Cameron quotes Churchill, that means he thinks he's Churchill.
When McDonnell quotes Chairman Mao, that means he thinks he’s Chairman Mao.
Parris sums up the elitist attitude of a few sad folk that back REMAIN who look down on all the rest. One step from using phrases such as the "great unwashed" and another step from the eugenics once advocated by lefties such as sidney and beatrice webb.
I've grown to detest him over the last year or so. Danny Fink is a complete gent. The gulf between them is enormous.
In some ways he is correct. Without the vast income that London brings in, the public services that we take for granted would be severly affected.
Yep, to coin a phrase - London pays in much more than it gets out.
And here's something else that may surprise non-Londoners: most people that live there are not effete metropolitans sneering at everyone else; they are ordinary people going about their daily lives. It's a fact that they work longer hours, have longer commutes and have higher housing costs.
That is what being a country is about - there are fiscal transfers from wealthy to less wealthy areas. This does not happen effectively at the European level because Europe is not a country. London has absolutely no justification to become "independent" imo. But it's a barmy subject anyway.
If the clear majority of people in London wish their city to be separate country, why should they not have the right of self determination too?
You may disagree but the principle involved implies an atomisation of society and an attitude of 'what's mine is mine'. Taken to this extreme I do not think it is for the common good.
Yup. I've never particularly liked Gove, but I never had reason to believe he was anything other than your usual opinionated politician. Now he comes across as quite unhinged.
It's not Gove who is coming across as unhinged but the Remainers who are deliberately misunderstanding a very simple argument to bash him.
It's not a simple argument; it's a nonsensical argument because it assumes some sort of equivalence between political opinion and scientific theory for its validity.
Mr. Meeks, when you're complaining of how horrid the other side are, you might want to consider whether using terms like 'little Englanders' might be a tad hypocritical.
Parris sums up the elitist attitude of a few sad folk that back REMAIN who look down on all the rest. One step from using phrases such as the "great unwashed" and another step from the eugenics once advocated by lefties such as sidney and beatrice webb.
I've grown to detest him over the last year or so. Danny Fink is a complete gent. The gulf between them is enormous.
In some ways he is correct. Without the vast income that London brings in, the public services that we take for granted would be severly affected.
Yep, to coin a phrase - London pays in much more than it gets out.
And here's something else that may surprise non-Londoners: most people that live there are not effete metropolitans sneering at everyone else; they are ordinary people going about their daily lives. It's a fact that they work longer hours, have longer commutes and have higher housing costs.
That is what being a country is about - there are fiscal transfers from wealthy to less wealthy areas. This does not happen effectively at the European level because Europe is not a country. London has absolutely no justification to become "independent" imo. But it's a barmy subject anyway.
If the clear majority of people in London wish their city to be separate country, why should they not have the right of self determination too?
On the article, the Eurozone is mostly doing OK now after a very critical free years. There are issues as there are with Britain that have nothing to do with its membership of the EU. Italy remains a concern and Greece remains a basket case. Several countries have stubbornly high unemployment rates but growth across the piece is decent.
While there is a small possibility of the EU collapsing In the planning horizon it is by no means the nailed on certainty this article makes it out to be. In fact the possibility of the UK collapsing is higher, albeit not high.
The ORB poll shows a big increase of the young in certainty to vote fro 30% too 50% and big fall in 65+ showing a fall to 60%. Will that be likely to happen?
Looks like a lot of older ones lied and said remain or won't vote after that murder.
The first may be correct; the second isn't.
But if you were shy because of the killing why would you go from leave to remain, surely you would go from Leave to don't know? So then I could see why there was a big fall in turnout for 65%+
@Morris_Dancer You know me, I am desperate not to offend. "Little Englander" did seem to capture the essence of the objectors, but I'm open to other terms.
It might be just my limited experience, but every South African I've ever met or known has been right of centre.
Resisting the urge to post the Spitting Image song...
And, as with the posts about armed services voters below, the interesting thing about this referendum is that being right wing is not (at least until you approach the extreme) a particularly strong indicator of preference for leave. Weak at best.
@Morris_Dancer You know me, I am desperate not to offend. "Little Englander" did seem to capture the essence of the objectors, but I'm open to other terms.
It gives me hope for national unity in future that both sides are so ready and willing to put themselves out to understand one another.
The phrase is valid in the context of scientific theories, not political opinions. It refers to the fact that a scientific theory can be proved wrong by one piece of evidence, but not by any number of contrary opinions. Gove's political opinion is not a scientific theory at all, let alone one of similar standing to Einstein's theories of relativity!
When Gove quotes Einstein, that means he thinks he’s Einstein.
When Cameron quotes Churchill, that means he thinks he's Churchill.
When McDonnell quotes Chairman Mao, that means he thinks he’s Chairman Mao.
I have never said or implied that Gove thinks he's Einstein. Stop making things up. I have said that Gove clearly sees some sort of parallel between his own opinions and Einstein's theories, otherwise he wouldn't have drawn the analogy. This parallel doesn't exist.
Parris sums up the elitist attitude of a few sad folk that back REMAIN who look down on all the rest. One step from using phrases such as the "great unwashed" and another step from the eugenics once advocated by lefties such as sidney and beatrice webb.
I've grown to detest him over the last year or so. Danny Fink is a complete gent. The gulf between them is enormous.
In some ways he is correct. Without the vast income that London brings in, the public services that we take for granted would be severly affected.
Yep, to coin a phrase - London pays in much more than it gets out.
And here's something else that may surprise non-Londoners: most people that live there are not effete metropolitans sneering at everyone else; they are ordinary people going about their daily lives. It's a fact that they work longer hours, have longer commutes and have higher housing costs.
That is what being a country is about - there are fiscal transfers from wealthy to less wealthy areas. This does not happen effectively at the European level because Europe is not a country. London has absolutely no justification to become "independent" imo. But it's a barmy subject anyway.
If the clear majority of people in London wish their city to be separate country, why should they not have the right of self determination too?
You may disagree but the principle involved implies an atomisation of society and an attitude of 'what's mine is mine'. Taken to this extreme I do not think it is for the common good.
Identifications change over time. A thousand years ago, people would have identified as West Saxons.
The UK was made by people and will be unmade by people. One day, the last person that even knew the name "the United Kingdom" will die.
That doesn't mean that we should hurry the process, but if a clear majority of Londoners wish their city to be independent, we should not deny them a referendum.
The ORB poll shows a big increase of the young in certainty to vote fro 30% too 50% and big fall in 65+ showing a fall to 60%. Will that be likely to happen?
London + Eurostar line + M23 + Brighton & Hove council area – would make for a great europhile City State of London in the EU with access to the sea. Nor would London then be an enclave. We'd probably annex LGW too, but could live without it as we'd already have LHR and LCY.
@rcs1000 Don't go down that route. The little Englanders threaten to cut off London's water supplies* and its food supplies.
* I assume they intend to dam the Thames and flood Hampshire in order to do this.
And with airspace extending out from Kent and Essex and border posts all around the M25, Londoners would need to ask very nicely before they could go anywhere
The ORB poll shows a big increase of the young in certainty to vote fro 30% too 50% and big fall in 65+ showing a fall to 60%. Will that be likely to happen?
It's massively out of synch with everyone else.
Remember, their online poll has LEAVE 10 points ahead, and 15 ahead on 10/10 to vote.
"Londoners have a tougher lifestyle". Hmm. Well, there are very poor Londoners, who undoubtedly have a tough lifestyle. But, then there are very poor people outside London who also have a tough lifestyle.
One thing's for sure. Matthew Parris and his acquaintances have a gilded lifestyle.
London + Eurostar line + M23 + Brighton & Hove council area – would make for a great europhile City State of London in the EU with access to the sea. Nor would London then be an enclave. We'd probably annex LGW too, but could live without it as we'd already have LHR and LCY.
Have you thought about what you would do with the Palace of Westminster and all of those office buildings around Whitehall when the UK government moves out?
Parris sums up the elitist attitude of a few sad folk that back REMAIN who look down on all the rest. One step from using phrases such as the "great unwashed" and another step from the eugenics once advocated by lefties such as sidney and beatrice webb.
I've grown to detest him over the last year or so. Danny Fink is a complete gent. The gulf between them is enormous.
In some ways he is correct. Without the vast income that London brings in, the public services that we take for granted would be severly affected.
Yep, to coin a phrase - London pays in much more than it gets out.
And here's something else that may surprise non-Londoners: most people that live there are not effete metropolitans sneering at everyone else; they are ordinary people going about their daily lives. It's a fact that they work longer hours, have longer commutes and have higher housing costs.
That is what being a country is about - there are fiscal transfers from wealthy to less wealthy areas. This does not happen effectively at the European level because Europe is not a country. London has absolutely no justification to become "independent" imo. But it's a barmy subject anyway.
If the clear majority of people in London wish their city to be separate country, why should they not have the right of self determination too?
You may disagree but the principle involved implies an atomisation of society and an attitude of 'what's mine is mine'. Taken to this extreme I do not think it is for the common good.
Identifications change over time. A thousand years ago, people would have identified as West Saxons.
The UK was made by people and will be unmade by people. One day, the last person that even knew the name "the United Kingdom" will die.
That doesn't mean that we should hurry the process, but if a clear majority of Londoners wish their city to be independent, we should not deny them a referendum.
There are far more ex-pats in non EU countries than EU countries.
Which way will the non EU ex pats vote in the referendum?
Channel Islands: 73,030
Germany: 96,938
France: 172,806
Ireland: 253,605
South Africa: 305,660
New Zealand: 313,850
Spain: 381,025
Canada: 674,371
United States of America: 758,919
Australia: 1,277,474
Wow so over five and a half times the number in English speaking countries (or very predominantly - Canada or quasi S Africa) compared to Europe. The Anglosphere gets the votes with feet attached doesn't it?
There are far more ex-pats in non EU countries than EU countries.
Which way will the non EU ex pats vote in the referendum?
Channel Islands: 73,030
Germany: 96,938
France: 172,806
Ireland: 253,605
South Africa: 305,660
New Zealand: 313,850
Spain: 381,025
Canada: 674,371
United States of America: 758,919
Australia: 1,277,474
But I would expect a) the proportion of longer-resident and hence ineligible expats is significantly higher in the non-EU countries, b) registration rates of those eligible may well be lower, especially given the incentive the long-expected referendum gave the EU folks to register, c) the EU folk have a direct incentive to actually vote, and d) the longer postal transit time there and back, particularly for remote areas of Canada, Australia etc., narrows the time window that the more distant expats have to complete their voting papers and get it back in time for tomorrow.
The ORB poll shows a big increase of the young in certainty to vote fro 30% too 50% and big fall in 65+ showing a fall to 60%. Will that be likely to happen?
There are lots of reasons to be highly sceptical of the Orb polling, their samples are far too eratic. An earlier poll from the end of May with a similarish lead for remain had over half the 18-24 coming from the AB demographic alone (which is just 20% of pop). Incidentally they had a 25% certain to vote...
Most of their polls have small samples. When you compare to the poll they did with a sample of 2000 then the latest poll seems closer to the ballpark for 18-24, but now MASSIVELY understates the older vote for Leave.
London + Eurostar line + M23 + Brighton & Hove council area – would make for a great europhile City State of London in the EU with access to the sea. Nor would London then be an enclave. We'd probably annex LGW too, but could live without it as we'd already have LHR and LCY.
Have you thought about what you would do with the Palace of Westminster and all of those office buildings around Whitehall when the UK government moves out?
Housing and office space. The world will come to London as the undisputed capital of the EU.
Given London has been the dominant settlement, to a greater or lesser degree, on this island for a thousand years at least, and so been 'different' in many ways to the rest, the fact that it is different now and thus it should be independent strikes me as one of the more ludicrous ideas out there.
It might be just my limited experience, but every South African I've ever met or known has been right of centre.
What gets me about South Africans is that they are so appallingly racist and right wing- they just take it for granted that you share the same values because you are white. Boris would be OK with them because apparently in private he is completely off the radar.
London + Eurostar line + M23 + Brighton & Hove council area – would make for a great europhile City State of London in the EU with access to the sea. Nor would London then be an enclave. We'd probably annex LGW too, but could live without it as we'd already have LHR and LCY.
Third runway might be a bit tight squeezed in between Brighton Pavilion and the marina mind.
"We both nominated Corbyn for leader last year. We have never had cause to doubt his commitment to society’s most disadvantaged and to Labour’s values – a commitment we all share. But we have come to regret that decision."
Incidentally has anyone else noticed that polls with larger sample sizes have tended to have better results for Leave? Although mode clearly has an effect, so does sample size.
The numbers of expats living in various places doesn't really matter, what matters is have they registered to vote. All evidence suggests no. It's rightly not a thing.
London + Eurostar line + M23 + Brighton & Hove council area – would make for a great europhile City State of London in the EU with access to the sea. Nor would London then be an enclave. We'd probably annex LGW too, but could live without it as we'd already have LHR and LCY.
Have you thought about what you would do with the Palace of Westminster and all of those office buildings around Whitehall when the UK government moves out?
Housing and office space. The world will come to London as the undisputed capital of the EU.
Outwith the UK, London would gradually become a backwater, as government, administration, law, and people moved elsewhere.
Given London has been the dominant settlement, to a greater or lesser degree, on this island for a thousand years at least, and so been 'different' in many ways to the rest, the fact that it is different now and thus it should be independent strikes me as one of the more ludicrous ideas out there.
I'm not saying it SHOULD be independent. I am a Londoner and would vote against it.
I am saying that if a clear majority of Londoners wish it to be independent, then it has the same rights of self determination as anywhere else.
It might be just my limited experience, but every South African I've ever met or known has been right of centre.
What gets me about South Africans is that they are so appallingly racist and right wing- they just take it for granted that you share the same values because you are white. Boris would be OK with them because apparently in private he is completely off the radar.
Not true. Some of Bozza's best friends are picaninnies.
Given London has been the dominant settlement, to a greater or lesser degree, on this island for a thousand years at least, and so been 'different' in many ways to the rest, the fact that it is different now and thus it should be independent strikes me as one of the more ludicrous ideas out there.
As I said down thread residents of big cities often have nonsensical views about theirs. And I say that as a Londoner.
London + Eurostar line + M23 + Brighton & Hove council area – would make for a great europhile City State of London in the EU with access to the sea. Nor would London then be an enclave. We'd probably annex LGW too, but could live without it as we'd already have LHR and LCY.
Third runway might be a bit tight squeezed in between Brighton Pavilion and the marina mind.
"We both nominated Corbyn for leader last year. We have never had cause to doubt his commitment to society’s most disadvantaged and to Labour’s values – a commitment we all share. But we have come to regret that decision."
Chatting last night to my IoW aunt about summer holiday plans. She has to the best of my knowledge never left the UK, C1 turned housewife turned granny turned widow. Voting Remain - because that is what her husband would have wanted. Remain win Wight from beyond the grave...
IoW will be at least 60% Leave IMHO.
Jesting aside, I think the Caulkheads and Overners will both go for Leave. Wight is my tip for highest Leave vote in the Ladbrokes market. The age, SE class and occupational pointers are all heavily for Leave.
On the other hand my Aunt is very capable of persuasion, and a very social pillar of the community.
"Londoners have a tougher lifestyle". Hmm. Well, there are very poor Londoners, who undoubtedly have a tough lifestyle. But, then there are very poor people outside London who also have a tough lifestyle.
One thing's for sure. Matthew Parris and his acquaintances have a gilded lifestyle.
How can you say that. It is a tough life to choose which restaurant for lunch. And then what, if you make the wrong menu choice. And the wine, if you get that wrong. The likes of Mathew Parris and his crowd have to face difficult decisions and choices everyday.
Andrew Neil @afneil 48m48 minutes ago Head of German Industry: post-Brexit trade barriers would be "very, very foolish"; urges "trade regime to maintain levels of trade we have".
London + Eurostar line + M23 + Brighton & Hove council area – would make for a great europhile City State of London in the EU with access to the sea. Nor would London then be an enclave. We'd probably annex LGW too, but could live without it as we'd already have LHR and LCY.
Have you thought about what you would do with the Palace of Westminster and all of those office buildings around Whitehall when the UK government moves out?
Housing and office space. The world will come to London as the undisputed capital of the EU.
Outwith the UK, London would gradually become a backwater, as government, administration, law, and people moved elsewhere.
Most of the finance work that goes on in London has very little to do with rUK.
The ORB poll shows a big increase of the young in certainty to vote fro 30% too 50% and big fall in 65+ showing a fall to 60%. Will that be likely to happen?
There are lots of reasons to be highly sceptical of the Orb polling, their samples are far too eratic. An earlier poll from the end of May with a similarish lead for remain had over half the 18-24 coming from the AB demographic alone (which is just 20% of pop). Incidentally they had a 25% certain to vote...
Most of their polls have small samples. When you compare to the poll they did with a sample of 2000 then the latest poll seems closer to the ballpark for 18-24, but now MASSIVELY understates the older vote for Leave.
but small sub-samples normally balance out though this one has 60%+ at 60% turnout when at the GE they turned out at 80%???? wtf. not going to happen.
Incidentally has anyone else noticed that polls with larger sample sizes have tended to have better results for Leave? Although mode clearly has an effect, so does sample size.
That's because on-line polls tend to have much larger sample sizes.
Getting a balanced sample is - however - much more important than raw sample size. I'd rather have a 100 person balanced sample, than a 10,000 person unbalanced one.
That's a very interesting piece, with some useful snippets on how they think voters will behave.
It's worth noting, though, that their 54/46 final figure is based on the assumption that Don't Knows will split towards Remain by a factor of 3 to 1. That seems very high to me.
London + Eurostar line + M23 + Brighton & Hove council area – would make for a great europhile City State of London in the EU with access to the sea. Nor would London then be an enclave. We'd probably annex LGW too, but could live without it as we'd already have LHR and LCY.
Third runway might be a bit tight squeezed in between Brighton Pavilion and the marina mind.
Third runway at LHR
Outside the M25? Berkshire border patrol and customs might have a say. Could have a Geneva arrangement go through door A for Switzerland, door B for France when you exit.
London + Eurostar line + M23 + Brighton & Hove council area – would make for a great europhile City State of London in the EU with access to the sea. Nor would London then be an enclave. We'd probably annex LGW too, but could live without it as we'd already have LHR and LCY.
Have you thought about what you would do with the Palace of Westminster and all of those office buildings around Whitehall when the UK government moves out?
Housing and office space. The world will come to London as the undisputed capital of the EU.
Outwith the UK, London would gradually become a backwater, as government, administration, law, and people moved elsewhere.
They said the same about Singapore......... Interestingly, Singapore is the only country on Earth than has been forced to become independent against its wishes. There's a parallel here with London's EU membership.*
*P.S. I am not entirely serious about this idea. I am a proud Englishman. But I can see some science in it.
Andrew Neil @afneil 48m48 minutes ago Head of German Industry: post-Brexit trade barriers would be "very, very foolish"; urges "trade regime to maintain levels of trade we have".
The ORB poll shows a big increase of the young in certainty to vote fro 30% too 50% and big fall in 65+ showing a fall to 60%. Will that be likely to happen?
No.
What result are you expecting at the moment, David?
There are far more ex-pats in non EU countries than EU countries.
Which way will the non EU ex pats vote in the referendum?
Channel Islands: 73,030
Germany: 96,938
France: 172,806
Ireland: 253,605
South Africa: 305,660
New Zealand: 313,850
Spain: 381,025
Canada: 674,371
United States of America: 758,919
Australia: 1,277,474
Wow so over five and a half times the number in English speaking countries (or very predominantly - Canada or quasi S Africa) compared to Europe. The Anglosphere gets the votes with feet attached doesn't it?
Not including the Channel Islands, it looks like a toss of the coin between Ireland and NZ for most Brits as a percentage of the overall population.
Out of interest, what are so many Brits doing in Ireland? Is it joint passport-holding folk from the north? I'd be surprised if it was a whole host of people from England, Wales and Scotland.
London + Eurostar line + M23 + Brighton & Hove council area – would make for a great europhile City State of London in the EU with access to the sea. Nor would London then be an enclave. We'd probably annex LGW too, but could live without it as we'd already have LHR and LCY.
Third runway might be a bit tight squeezed in between Brighton Pavilion and the marina mind.
Third runway at LHR
Outside the M25? Berkshire border patrol and customs might have a say. Could have a Geneva arrangement go through door A for Switzerland, door B for France when you exit.
The third runway is planned for inside the M25, in Gtr London.
Given London has been the dominant settlement, to a greater or lesser degree, on this island for a thousand years at least, and so been 'different' in many ways to the rest, the fact that it is different now and thus it should be independent strikes me as one of the more ludicrous ideas out there.
I'm not saying it SHOULD be independent. I am a Londoner and would vote against it.
I am saying that if a clear majority of Londoners wish it to be independent, then it has the same rights of self determination as anywhere else.
Oh I accept that - I think it would be bloody silly and illogical, but absolutely if they vote for it what justification for not allowing it.
And for all the crap I give London, I'd miss it being my capital if it left.
That's a very interesting piece, with some useful snippets on how they think voters will behave.
It's worth noting, though, that their 54/46 final figure is based on the assumption that Don't Knows will split towards Remain by a factor of 3 to 1. That seems very high to me.
It might be just my limited experience, but every South African I've ever met or known has been right of centre.
What gets me about South Africans is that they are so appallingly racist and right wing- they just take it for granted that you share the same values because you are white. Boris would be OK with them because apparently in private he is completely off the radar.
Not all. My RSA born colleague is Green/Corbynista.
There are far more ex-pats in non EU countries than EU countries.
Which way will the non EU ex pats vote in the referendum?
Channel Islands: 73,030
Germany: 96,938
France: 172,806
Ireland: 253,605
South Africa: 305,660
New Zealand: 313,850
Spain: 381,025
Canada: 674,371
United States of America: 758,919
Australia: 1,277,474
But I would expect a) the proportion of longer-resident and hence ineligible expats is significantly higher in the non-EU countries, b) registration rates of those eligible may well be lower, especially given the incentive the long-expected referendum gave the EU folks to register, c) the EU folk have a direct incentive to actually vote, and d) the longer postal transit time there and back, particularly for remote areas of Canada, Australia etc., narrows the time window that the more distant expats have to complete their voting papers and get it back in time for tomorrow.
Completely unscientific observations from Dubai, where there are an estimated 240,000 Brits, all ABC1 classes plus a few oil rig workers, and all working age. Lots of interest in the referendum, lots of people who didn't vote in the GE have signed up for postal votes. Estimate from my own pub conversations that it's 70-75% Leave. For us, the referendum was two and three weeks ago as we completed postal votes and sent them back.
Friends in Singapore (similar demographics) have similar observations.
I expect we are somewhat outnumbered by the retirees in the south of France and Spain though, they will be just as solid for Remain.
That's a very interesting piece, with some useful snippets on how they think voters will behave.
It's worth noting, though, that their 54/46 final figure is based on the assumption that Don't Knows will split towards Remain by a factor of 3 to 1. That seems very high to me.
It's a credible position, in my view. I note they think the main impact of the murder is to drive up certainty to vote amongst soft Remainers and younger voters.
"Londoners have a tougher lifestyle". Hmm. Well, there are very poor Londoners, who undoubtedly have a tough lifestyle. But, then there are very poor people outside London who also have a tough lifestyle.
One thing's for sure. Matthew Parris and his acquaintances have a gilded lifestyle.
How can you say that. It is a tough life to choose which restaurant for lunch. And then what, if you make the wrong menu choice. And the wine, if you get that wrong. The likes of Mathew Parris and his crowd have to face difficult decisions and choices everyday.
That's a very interesting piece, with some useful snippets on how they think voters will behave.
It's worth noting, though, that their 54/46 final figure is based on the assumption that Don't Knows will split towards Remain by a factor of 3 to 1. That seems very high to me.
There are far more ex-pats in non EU countries than EU countries.
Which way will the non EU ex pats vote in the referendum?
Channel Islands: 73,030
Germany: 96,938
France: 172,806
Ireland: 253,605
South Africa: 305,660
New Zealand: 313,850
Spain: 381,025
Canada: 674,371
United States of America: 758,919
Australia: 1,277,474
Wow so over five and a half times the number in English speaking countries (or very predominantly - Canada or quasi S Africa) compared to Europe. The Anglosphere gets the votes with feet attached doesn't it?
...... Out of interest, what are so many Brits doing in Ireland? Is it joint passport-holding folk from the north? I'd be surprised if it was a whole host of people from England, Wales and Scotland.
There is a lot of inter-marriage and also Irish people that acquired UK passports, later moving back to Eire. I am born in England and married in Eire.
Incidentally has anyone else noticed that polls with larger sample sizes have tended to have better results for Leave? Although mode clearly has an effect, so does sample size.
That's because on-line polls tend to have much larger sample sizes.
Getting a balanced sample is - however - much more important than raw sample size. I'd rather have a 100 person balanced sample, than a 10,000 person unbalanced one.
I meant even intra-mode. Phone polls with larger samples haven't been quite as pro-Remain as Orb.
And as I've said the Orb cross-tabs do not display anything like a representative sample according to known demographics.
Chatting last night to my IoW aunt about summer holiday plans. She has to the best of my knowledge never left the UK, C1 turned housewife turned granny turned widow. Voting Remain - because that is what her husband would have wanted. Remain win Wight from beyond the grave...
IoW will be at least 60% Leave IMHO.
Jesting aside, I think the Caulkheads and Overners will both go for Leave. Wight is my tip for highest Leave vote in the Ladbrokes market. The age, SE class and occupational pointers are all heavily for Leave.
On the other hand my Aunt is very capable of persuasion, and a very social pillar of the community.
My money would be on somewhere in Lincolnshire, probably Boston. The tourist trade and trend to retire there give the IOW a bit more of a mixed make-up than is my impression of the Lincs coast. Plus the island hasn't really had significant EU immigration and isn't likely to get any.
Comments
Chatting last night to my IoW aunt about summer holiday plans. She has to the best of my knowledge never left the UK, C1 turned housewife turned granny turned widow. Voting Remain - because that is what her husband would have wanted. Remain win Wight from beyond the grave...
And here's something else that may surprise non-Londoners: most people that live there are not effete metropolitans sneering at everyone else; they are ordinary people going about their daily lives. It's a fact that they work longer hours, have longer commutes and have higher housing costs.
I don't know what the rate of employment is in Bakewell, but in the East Midlands, it's 75% compared to 72.5% in Greater London.
Hard to keep up when you have a day job...
Who are you? Sarah Wollaston?
Looking at the age differentials, we'd expect 55-60% Leave (Survation/YouGov respectively). However looking at wealth/class the picture is probably different.
It will be heavily reported.
Rio spent all his life stopping people putting crosses in boxes.
When Cameron quotes Churchill, that means he thinks he's Churchill.
When McDonnell quotes Chairman Mao, that means he thinks he’s Chairman Mao.
* I assume they intend to dam the Thames and flood Hampshire in order to do this.
While there is a small possibility of the EU collapsing In the planning horizon it is by no means the nailed on certainty this article makes it out to be. In fact the possibility of the UK collapsing is higher, albeit not high.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aeDk6ZeGNnU
The UK was made by people and will be unmade by people. One day, the last person that even knew the name "the United Kingdom" will die.
That doesn't mean that we should hurry the process, but if a clear majority of Londoners wish their city to be independent, we should not deny them a referendum.
Which way will the non EU ex pats vote in the referendum?
Channel Islands: 73,030
Germany: 96,938
France: 172,806
Ireland: 253,605
South Africa: 305,660
New Zealand: 313,850
Spain: 381,025
Canada: 674,371
United States of America: 758,919
Australia: 1,277,474
Remember, their online poll has LEAVE 10 points ahead, and 15 ahead on 10/10 to vote.
They don't even agree with themselves.
One thing's for sure. Matthew Parris and his acquaintances have a gilded lifestyle.
No worries, we can have Brighton and the M23 corridor. A kind of europhile Caprivi Strip.
Most of their polls have small samples. When you compare to the poll they did with a sample of 2000 then the latest poll seems closer to the ballpark for 18-24, but now MASSIVELY understates the older vote for Leave.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/may/06/jeremy-corbyn-leadership-labour-mps-elections
"We both nominated Corbyn for leader last year. We have never had cause to doubt his commitment to society’s most disadvantaged and to Labour’s values – a commitment we all share. But we have come to regret that decision."
Opinium, YouGov and ComRes today and MORI tomorrow morning?
Me: Australia.
I am saying that if a clear majority of Londoners wish it to be independent, then it has the same rights of self determination as anywhere else.
On the other hand my Aunt is very capable of persuasion, and a very social pillar of the community.
Head of German Industry: post-Brexit trade barriers would be "very, very foolish"; urges "trade regime to maintain levels of trade we have".
Getting a balanced sample is - however - much more important than raw sample size. I'd rather have a 100 person balanced sample, than a 10,000 person unbalanced one.
It's worth noting, though, that their 54/46 final figure is based on the assumption that Don't Knows will split towards Remain by a factor of 3 to 1. That seems very high to me.
*P.S. I am not entirely serious about this idea. I am a proud Englishman. But I can see some science in it.
Out of interest, what are so many Brits doing in Ireland? Is it joint passport-holding folk from the north? I'd be surprised if it was a whole host of people from England, Wales and Scotland.
And for all the crap I give London, I'd miss it being my capital if it left.
Friends in Singapore (similar demographics) have similar observations.
I expect we are somewhat outnumbered by the retirees in the south of France and Spain though, they will be just as solid for Remain.
Which I agree with.
And as I've said the Orb cross-tabs do not display anything like a representative sample according to known demographics.