Would you prefer that or a country with 90-100 million people in it....
I don't think that we'll get close to that population level. But if that is the genuine Leave prospectus - endure a drop in living standards to keep the population down - then I believe they should have presented it as such.
That's a very financial view of living standards. You should be looking at QALY not just GDP per capital
My take now, for what it's worth, is that Leave has about a 40% chance of winning.
Reasons to expect a Leave win: it's (just) ahead in the polling. Immigration seems to cut through more than the economy.
Reasons to expect a Remain win: there seems to have been a small Remain majority at the start of the campaign and that will probably reassert itself in the polling booth.
So Leave still seems absurd value to me. 4.2 right now. But I think Remain is still the most likely outcome.
I think the spreads offer the real value here. SpreadEx allows you to sell Remain at 53.5. So, if the polls are right and its 51 to Remain, you're quids in. And if - as is entirely possible - its 52:48 to Leave you've made out like a bandito. What's your downside? The worst case scenario is probably 55:45 to Remain, which means you're only down 1.5.
Being up 1.5 is being "quids in" but being down the same amount is "only" a small loss? Yeah, right.
If on balance you expect a remain win (as I do), it's all very well saying that the odds on leave represent absurd value - but after getting in there has to be a point where you can get out with a profit. I am not sure how much movement in the betting - which has been remarkably stable - there is now going to be, until the result starts to emerge, by which time it Is probably too late to exit at a profit, if you are wrong?
I think you'll find it's a 2.5 profit to the mid point in the polls, against a 1.5 loss to worst case.
So it is, my apologies! The better response came from the guy who posted after me that 53 is pretty close to the likely mid-range outcome and therefore probably doesn't offer much value.
With seemingly half the country on their side, why are some Leavers "shy"? (Asks a Remainer)
Because to so many "right thinking" people to support Leave is to support being a racist ill-informed moron voting against your children's best interests.
Dont forget expats in non eu countries who will probably heavily vote Brexit. There are over a million in South Africa alone
Why? non-EU expats probably split between those who have a nostalgic view of the UK, and therefore have likely already lived over 15 years abroad and can't vote anyway, or Hong Kong city dwelling international types who probably don't care much either way and therefore have no strong ill will towards the EU.
In any case, non-EU expat turnout will be far far lower than EU expats who have skin in the game.
My greatest fear is that there's a huge swing to Remain in the privacy of the polling booth tomorrow, that sees a clear Remain victory, and gives a huge shot in the arm to europhilia in the EU and the UK.
BBC debate had TV audience of 3.86m (19.3% audience share).
NB. That's the average audience throughout the two hours.
Slightly outrated by Spain v Croatia which got 4.6m.
Reasonable audience but not enough to think it could have had a substantial impact - given it was generally considered to have been pretty even.
But nowadays a big and growing slice of audience - particularly for popular shows - comes from viewing later, in this case iPlayer. Too early to say how many people will see at least some of the debate this way?
Yes, but iPlayer only generally rates highly for dramas - not live events.
There's also only one day to watch it and it's two hours long.
Crickey who advised John Major to give this speech where he basically echos the same smug dismissals of possible EU expansion and how that will effect immigration to the UK....
He is more than likely right about Turkey, but saying well it won't happen for a decade, maybe two, and even if they did millions of Turks won't suddenly come here...
Those that have witnessed the predicted 10,000's of Poles before, not to mention the Bulgarian, Romanians etc that have come after hearing the same speech a few years ago from politicians might disagree...Oh wait it isn't 10,000's of Eastern Europeans, it is more like 1.5 million.
He is just reminding those that have been affected by such a large influx and / or concerned about it continuing that politicians always say well don't worry this won't happen, and their track record ain't so good.
Dont forget expats in non eu countries who will probably heavily vote Brexit. There are over a million in South Africa alone
A bit like the 1.5 million in Oz; most will not be eligible as not UK resident in the last 15 years. Turnout from these wil be a couple of percent at most of the raw figure, and dwarfed by sunbirds who winter in Spain and the Algarve.
Well, that is a huge loss for the pollsters. They can’t even measure a 14 per cent difference. They might as well pack up their businesses!
FWIW, I think Remain will win but the gap will be less than 5 %.
I can see anything from Remain 54% to Leave on 52%, with a central forecast of Leave - 48% and Remain - 52%.
I could be very wrong but I think views are too entrenched either way for it to swing much more outside those boundaries now. It just depends on who turns out and where.
I really admired Michael Gove but in recent weeks, what a douchebag he's become.
I've avoided listening to him, Boris, Cameron and indeed almost everyone but I find your comment interesting.
Is he a "douchebag" because he has argued against Cameron ? As I understood it, the Conservative Party was neutral and Cameron himself suspended collective responsibility for the duration of the campaign.
I realise Conservatives have this thing about "loyalty" but you can't allow dissension in the interests of an open debate and then criticise someone for using that to argue their view.
His lies on Turkey and now his Nazi comments this morning, no thanks Michael.
I never thought I would be defending Gove ...
By Nazi comments, do you mean that Gove, quoting Einstein on opponents of relativity, said "Look, if I was wrong, one would have been enough”?
If so, I think you’re doing the smearing.
Einsteins’ comment is a well-known retort when someone says "I must be right because 100 or 1000 other people support me".
The notion that Gove's gerbil-faced optimism about the economic effects of Brexit and Einstein's theories of relativity are in any way comparable is utterly ludicrous. Edit: Not to mention his comparison of economic experts with Nazi propagandists.
My greatest fear is that there's a huge swing to Remain in the privacy of the polling booth tomorrow, that sees a clear Remain victory, and gives a huge shot in the arm to europhilia in the EU and the UK.
I think it's more likely that the swing in the polling booth will be for Leave, after all no one will know will they
I really admired Michael Gove but in recent weeks, what a douchebag he's become.
I've avoided listening to him, Boris, Cameron and indeed almost everyone but I find your comment interesting.
Is he a "douchebag" because he has argued against Cameron ? As I understood it, the Conservative Party was neutral and Cameron himself suspended collective responsibility for the duration of the campaign.
I realise Conservatives have this thing about "loyalty" but you can't allow dissension in the interests of an open debate and then criticise someone for using that to argue their view.
His lies on Turkey and now his Nazi comments this morning, no thanks Michael.
I never thought I would be defending Gove ...
By Nazi comments, do you mean that Gove, quoting Einstein on opponents of relativity, said "Look, if I was wrong, one would have been enough”?
If so, I think you’re doing the smearing.
Einsteins’ comment is a well-known retort when someone says "I must be right because 100 or 1000 other people support me".
The notion that Gove's gerbil-faced optimism about the economic effects of Brexit and Einstein's theories of relativity are in any way comparable is utterly ludicrous.
I am not making such a comparison (although of course when Einstein made his comment, his theory was not universally acknowledged).
Einsteins’s response is a well known response when someone say I must be right because Mr Engineer and his 400 friends agree with me.
Mr Engineer may be right, but you judge his case on its merits, not on how many supporters he has.
Strangely, the incumbent in this referendum is Leave in my view. That's because the EU gets very weak support. Remain have to convince people that Leave have no plan, so there's no reason to believe things will be better after Brexit. Specifically, there will be no major reduction in immigration. They are stymied on the second point because of Cameron's previous unmet pledge to reduce immigration and because no-one has been honest about immigration, so they can't really start now. I also don't think they have cut through enough on the lack of a plan and therefore why anyone should believe Leave
My greatest fear is that there's a huge swing to Remain in the privacy of the polling booth tomorrow, that sees a clear Remain victory, and gives a huge shot in the arm to europhilia in the EU and the UK.
Casino- rest assured Europhilia is going to kicked into the long grass for a long, long time after tomorrow.
Tissue Price is probably right...the EU will unravel in due course. But you know the markets more than most. If we jump first, the markets will punish us, severely. If we stay in and wait, we will likely be the beneficiaries of an EU implosion.
My take now, for what it's worth, is that Leave has about a 40% chance of winning.
Reasons to expect a Leave win: it's (just) ahead in the polling. Immigration seems to cut through more than the economy.
Reasons to expect a Remain win: there seems to have been a small Remain majority at the start of the campaign and that will probably reassert itself in the polling booth.
So Leave still seems absurd value to me. 4.2 right now. But I think Remain is still the most likely outcome.
I think the spreads offer the real value here. SpreadEx allows you to sell Remain at 53.5. So, if the polls are right and its 51 to Remain, you're quids in. And if - as is entirely possible - its 52:48 to Leave you've made out like a bandito. What's your downside? The worst case scenario is probably 55:45 to Remain, which means you're only down 1.5.
Being up 1.5 is being "quids in" but being down the same amount is "only" a small loss? Yeah, right.
If on balance you expect a remain win (as I do), it's all very well saying that the odds on leave represent absurd value - but after getting in there has to be a point where you can get out with a profit. I am not sure how much movement in the betting - which has been remarkably stable - there is now going to be, until the result starts to emerge, by which time it Is probably too late to exit at a profit, if you are wrong?
Very true. If you bet on Leave now you have to be prepared to let it ride. It's still a good bet imo but it's probably not one you can trade out of at a profit. That said, there could be some further movement in the price after tonight's polls or tomorrow when all kinds of rumours will fly around. But that could be movement towards Remain, of course.
Well, that is a huge loss for the pollsters. They can’t even measure a 14 per cent difference. They might as well pack up their businesses!
FWIW, I think Remain will win but the gap will be less than 5 %.
I can see anything from Remain 54% to Leave on 52%, with a central forecast of Leave - 48% and Remain - 52%.
I could be very wrong but I think views are too entrenched either way for it to swing much more outside those boundaries now. It just depends on who turns out and where.
I always thought Remain 55 Leave 45 but now expect a tad closer maybe 54.9 to 45.1
I really admired Michael Gove but in recent weeks, what a douchebag he's become.
I find that this campaign has confirmed just about everything I have always felt about our political leaders - from Dave and George, through Boris and Mike, to Jezza and John. I don't think there is one that I have had cause to reassess.
I'm finding it mentally very hard to see a "remain" win in Sunderland. Obviously it's ultimately not relevant because if Islington was counting first I couldn't see a "leave" win there.
But Sunderland is a solid Labour area (And I expect Tory areas to be quite pro Brexit as well as "old Labour" places) - which means the pool of "remain" reservoirs is strictly smaller than the Lib Dem + Labour + SNP + Sinn Fein constituencies at the GE.
It's this cognitive dissonance that makes me think "leave" probably wins.
I really admired Michael Gove but in recent weeks, what a douchebag he's become.
I've avoided listening to him, Boris, Cameron and indeed almost everyone but I find your comment interesting.
Is he a "douchebag" because he has argued against Cameron ? As I understood it, the Conservative Party was neutral and Cameron himself suspended collective responsibility for the duration of the campaign.
I realise Conservatives have this thing about "loyalty" but you can't allow dissension in the interests of an open debate and then criticise someone for using that to argue their view.
His lies on Turkey and now his Nazi comments this morning, no thanks Michael.
I never thought I would be defending Gove ...
By Nazi comments, do you mean that Gove, quoting Einstein on opponents of relativity, said "Look, if I was wrong, one would have been enough”?
If so, I think you’re doing the smearing.
Einsteins’ comment is a well-known retort when someone says "I must be right because 100 or 1000 other people support me".
The notion that Gove's gerbil-faced optimism about the economic effects of Brexit and Einstein's theories of relativity are in any way comparable is utterly ludicrous.
I am not making such a comparison (although of course when Einstein made his comment, his theory was not universally acknowledged).
Einsteins’s response is a well known response when someone say I must be right because Mr Engineer and his 400 friends agree with me.
Mr Engineer may be right, but you judge his case on its merits, not on how many supporters he has.
You weren't making the comparison, Gove was. He was seriously comparing criticism of his own blind optimism with criticisms of Einstein's theories of relativity. It's just absurd.
Well, that is a huge loss for the pollsters. They can’t even measure a 14 per cent difference. They might as well pack up their businesses!
FWIW, I think Remain will win but the gap will be less than 5 %.
I can see anything from Remain 54% to Leave on 52%, with a central forecast of Leave - 48% and Remain - 52%.
I could be very wrong but I think views are too entrenched either way for it to swing much more outside those boundaries now. It just depends on who turns out and where.
I always thought Remain 55 Leave 45 but now expect a tad closer maybe 54.9 to 45.1
After a breakfast meeting, I have scrolled back on this article's comments for two hours worth and not noticed much, if any response from REMAIN people to disagree with Tissue Price's article and to explain why. I may have missed some fundamental points from REMAIN supporters so could they please recap their contrary view or do they all agree with TP?
I really admired Michael Gove but in recent weeks, what a douchebag he's become.
I've avoided listening to him, Boris, Cameron and indeed almost everyone but I find your comment interesting.
Is he a "douchebag" because he has argued against Cameron ? As I understood it, the Conservative Party was neutral and Cameron himself suspended collective responsibility for the duration of the campaign.
I realise Conservatives have this thing about "loyalty" but you can't allow dissension in the interests of an open debate and then criticise someone for using that to argue their view.
His lies on Turkey and now his Nazi comments this morning, no thanks Michael.
I never thought I would be defending Gove ...
By Nazi comments, do you mean that Gove, quoting Einstein on opponents of relativity, said "Look, if I was wrong, one would have been enough”?
If so, I think you’re doing the smearing.
Einsteins’ comment is a well-known retort when someone says "I must be right because 100 or 1000 other people support me".
The notion that Gove's gerbil-faced optimism about the economic effects of Brexit and Einstein's theories of relativity are in any way comparable is utterly ludicrous.
I am not making such a comparison (although of course when Einstein made his comment, his theory was not universally acknowledged).
Einsteins’s response is a well known response when someone say I must be right because Mr Engineer and his 400 friends agree with me.
Mr Engineer may be right, but you judge his case on its merits, not on how many supporters he has.
You weren't making the comparison, Gove was. He was seriously comparing criticism of his own blind optimism with criticisms of Einstein's theories of relativity. It's just absurd.
No he wasn’t. He was stating that the test of any theory (whether economic or scientific) is not judged by the number of supporters, but by the strength of the (economic or scientific) case.
"someone told me the armed forces are 90% for leave though. Have you built that in?"
How does that make any sense? Troops are mostly young and so fall into the more pro remain demographic if anything.
I guess because they are not primarily the sons and daughters of the pampered middle classes.
I think you may be basing your judgement on half remembered Rudyard Kipling poems rather than any actual facts. But if my extended WWC family is anything to go by then yes the older ones are rather brexity and the younger ones are for remain. So I think it is quite likely that youth trumps class as a voting predictor. I don't know anyone serving at the moment but I have never picked up any indication in the past that soldiers view things any differently to anyone else. They are just people whose job requires them to wear a uniform.
I really admired Michael Gove but in recent weeks, what a douchebag he's become.
I've avoided listening to him, Boris, Cameron and indeed almost everyone but I find your comment interesting.
Is he a "douchebag" because he has argued against Cameron ? As I understood it, the Conservative Party was neutral and Cameron himself suspended collective responsibility for the duration of the campaign.
I realise Conservatives have this thing about "loyalty" but you can't allow dissension in the interests of an open debate and then criticise someone for using that to argue their view.
Politicians in my experience exaggerate, don't tell the whole truth, mislead and prevaricate but don't normally lie.
Michael Gove seems content in this campaign to make bald statements of fact that he almost certainly knows to be untrue.
It appears from Michael Gove's Nazi comments that he's losing his critical faculties.
Now you are just giving trolling a bad name... And you aren't doing your own reputation much good either.
Indeed.
Gove's not saying "those people are like Nazis", he's referring to a well known quote by Einstein that in essence being correct is not a popularity contest. Gove is saying that the weight of numbers does not make Remain's economic case correct, the ERM and Euro being two good examples where massive numbers of Economists, Bankers, and pundits got it horribly wrong.
You know Remain might win this, but their behaviour has been at least as disreputable as the things they accuse Farage of.
I'm finding it mentally very hard to see a "remain" win in Sunderland. Obviously it's ultimately not relevant because if Islington was counting first I couldn't see a "leave" win there.
But Sunderland is a solid Labour area (And I expect Tory areas to be quite pro Brexit as well as "old Labour" places) - which means the pool of "remain" reservoirs is strictly smaller than the Lib Dem + Labour + SNP + Sinn Fein constituencies at the GE.
It's this cognitive dissonance that makes me think "leave" probably wins.
Remain don't need to win Sunderland do they? a narrow loss points towards them winning overall.
I really admired Michael Gove but in recent weeks, what a douchebag he's become.
I find that this campaign has confirmed just about everything I have always felt about our political leaders - from Dave and George, through Boris and Mike, to Jezza and John. I don't think there is one that I have had cause to reassess.
George Osborne is the standout one for me......he has shown considerable courage batting the EU line so stoutly, knowing full well what the implications are for his personal standing in the Tory party.
Look at the invective he generates on this site for the stance he has taken.
I really admired Michael Gove but in recent weeks, what a douchebag he's become.
I've avoided listening to him, Boris, Cameron and indeed almost everyone but I find your comment interesting.
Is he a "douchebag" because he has argued against Cameron ? As I understood it, the Conservative Party was neutral and Cameron himself suspended collective responsibility for the duration of the campaign.
I realise Conservatives have this thing about "loyalty" but you can't allow dissension in the interests of an open debate and then criticise someone for using that to argue their view.
His lies on Turkey and now his Nazi comments this morning, no thanks Michael.
I never thought I would be defending Gove ...
By Nazi comments, do you mean that Gove, quoting Einstein on opponents of relativity, said "Look, if I was wrong, one would have been enough”?
If so, I think you’re doing the smearing.
Einsteins’ comment is a well-known retort when someone says "I must be right because 100 or 1000 other people support me".
The notion that Gove's gerbil-faced optimism about the economic effects of Brexit and Einstein's theories of relativity are in any way comparable is utterly ludicrous.
I am not making such a comparison (although of course when Einstein made his comment, his theory was not universally acknowledged).
Einsteins’s response is a well known response when someone say I must be right because Mr Engineer and his 400 friends agree with me.
Mr Engineer may be right, but you judge his case on its merits, not on how many supporters he has.
You weren't making the comparison, Gove was. He was seriously comparing criticism of his own blind optimism with criticisms of Einstein's theories of relativity. It's just absurd.
No he wasn’t. He was stating that the test of any theory (whether economic or scientific) is not judged by the number of supporters, but by the strength of the (economic or scientific) case.
To conflate a political opinion with a scientific theory displays a warped sense of the business he's in. If he really believes there is a correct answer in politics in the same sense as there is in physics then he's a dangerous ideologue.
I really admired Michael Gove but in recent weeks, what a douchebag he's become.
I find that this campaign has confirmed just about everything I have always felt about our political leaders - from Dave and George, through Boris and Mike, to Jezza and John. I don't think there is one that I have had cause to reassess.
I'm finding it mentally very hard to see a "remain" win in Sunderland. Obviously it's ultimately not relevant because if Islington was counting first I couldn't see a "leave" win there.
But Sunderland is a solid Labour area (And I expect Tory areas to be quite pro Brexit as well as "old Labour" places) - which means the pool of "remain" reservoirs is strictly smaller than the Lib Dem + Labour + SNP + Sinn Fein constituencies at the GE.
It's this cognitive dissonance that makes me think "leave" probably wins.
Remain don't need to win Sunderland do they? a narrow loss points towards them winning overall.
Anything over 40% in sunderland probably has remain on track
Parris sums up the elitist attitude of a few sad folk that back REMAIN who look down on all the rest. One step from using phrases such as the "great unwashed" and another step from the eugenics once advocated by lefties such as sidney and beatrice webb.
I'm finding it mentally very hard to see a "remain" win in Sunderland. Obviously it's ultimately not relevant because if Islington was counting first I couldn't see a "leave" win there.
But Sunderland is a solid Labour area (And I expect Tory areas to be quite pro Brexit as well as "old Labour" places) - which means the pool of "remain" reservoirs is strictly smaller than the Lib Dem + Labour + SNP + Sinn Fein constituencies at the GE.
It's this cognitive dissonance that makes me think "leave" probably wins.
Remain don't need to win Sunderland do they? a narrow loss points towards them winning overall.
Anything over 40% in sunderland probably has remain on track
After a breakfast meeting, I have scrolled back on this article's comments for two hours worth and not noticed much, if any response from REMAIN people to disagree with Tissue Price's article and to explain why. I may have missed some fundamental points from REMAIN supporters so could they please recap their contrary view or do they all agree with TP?
TC- this is the reply I gave to Casino earlier, and you would probably class me as remainiac
"Casino- rest assured Europhilia is going to kicked into the long grass for a long, long time after tomorrow.
Tissue Price is probably right...the EU will unravel in due course. But you know the markets more than most. If we jump first, the markets will punish us, severely. If we stay in and wait, we will likely be the beneficiaries of an EU implosion."
"someone told me the armed forces are 90% for leave though. Have you built that in?"
How does that make any sense? Troops are mostly young and so fall into the more pro remain demographic if anything.
I guess because they are not primarily the sons and daughters of the pampered middle classes.
I think you may be basing your judgement on half remembered Rudyard Kipling poems rather than any actual facts. But if my extended WWC family is anything to go by then yes the older ones are rather brexity and the younger ones are for remain. So I think it is quite likely that youth trumps class as a voting predictor. I don't know anyone serving at the moment but I have never picked up any indication in the past that soldiers view things any differently to anyone else. They are just people whose job requires them to wear a uniform.
I do remember a Poem from Kipling about politicians, though.
I could not dig: I dared not rob: Therefore I lied to please the mob. Now all my lies are proved untrue And I must face the men I slew. What tale shall serve me here among Mine angry and defrauded young?
I really admired Michael Gove but in recent weeks, what a douchebag he's become.
I find that this campaign has confirmed just about everything I have always felt about our political leaders - from Dave and George, through Boris and Mike, to Jezza and John. I don't think there is one that I have had cause to reassess.
Chuka?
Meet him in person and you will definitely reassess....the definition of empty suit...albeit a very expensive empty one that is well accessorized with an equally in your face watch.
Parris is clueless if he thinks people in London have a substantially different working life to people in Manchester, Liverpool, Edinburgh, Glasgow, Cardiff, Leeds, Birmingham, Portsmouth etc.
Parris sums up the elitist attitude of a few sad folk that back REMAIN who look down on all the rest. One step from using phrases such as the "great unwashed" and another step from the eugenics once advocated by lefties such as sidney and beatrice webb.
I've grown to detest him over the last year or so. Danny Fink is a complete gent. The gulf between them is enormous.
I really admired Michael Gove but in recent weeks, what a douchebag he's become.
I've avoided listening to him, Boris, Cameron and indeed almost everyone but I find your comment interesting.
Is he a "douchebag" because he has argued against Cameron ? As I understood it, the Conservative Party was neutral and Cameron himself suspended collective responsibility for the duration of the campaign.
I realise Conservatives have this thing about "loyalty" but you can't allow dissension in the interests of an open debate and then criticise someone for using that to argue their view.
His lies on Turkey and now his Nazi comments this morning, no thanks Michael.
I never thought I would be defending Gove ...
By Nazi comments, do you mean that Gove, quoting Einstein on opponents of relativity, said "Look, if I was wrong, one would have been enough”?
If so, I think you’re doing the smearing.
Einsteins’ comment is a well-known retort when someone says "I must be right because 100 or 1000 other people support me".
The notion that Gove's gerbil-faced optimism about the economic effects of Brexit and Einstein's theories of relativity are in any way comparable is utterly ludicrous.
I am not making such a comparison (although of course when Einstein made his comment, his theory was not universally acknowledged).
Einsteins’s response is a well known response when someone say I must be right because Mr Engineer and his 400 friends agree with me.
Mr Engineer may be right, but you judge his case on its merits, not on how many supporters he has.
You weren't making the comparison, Gove was. He was seriously comparing criticism of his own blind optimism with criticisms of Einstein's theories of relativity. It's just absurd.
No he wasn’t. He was stating that the test of any theory (whether economic or scientific) is not judged by the number of supporters, but by the strength of the (economic or scientific) case.
Of course he was. Why would he use the analogy unless he thought their was some sort of similarity between his opinions and Einstein's theories?
I really admired Michael Gove but in recent weeks, what a douchebag he's become.
I find that this campaign has confirmed just about everything I have always felt about our political leaders - from Dave and George, through Boris and Mike, to Jezza and John. I don't think there is one that I have had cause to reassess.
Chuka?
Meet him in person and you will definitely reassess....the definition of empty suit...albeit a very expensive empty one that is well accessorized with an equally in your face watch.
The ORB poll shows a big increase of the young in certainty to vote fro 30% too 50% and big fall in 65+ showing a fall to 60%. Will that be likely to happen?
"someone told me the armed forces are 90% for leave though. Have you built that in?"
How does that make any sense? Troops are mostly young and so fall into the more pro remain demographic if anything.
I guess because they are not primarily the sons and daughters of the pampered middle classes.
I think you may be basing your judgement on half remembered Rudyard Kipling poems rather than any actual facts. But if my extended WWC family is anything to go by then yes the older ones are rather brexity and the younger ones are for remain. So I think it is quite likely that youth trumps class as a voting predictor. I don't know anyone serving at the moment but I have never picked up any indication in the past that soldiers view things any differently to anyone else. They are just people whose job requires them to wear a uniform.
I do remember a Poem from Kipling about politicians, though.
I could not dig: I dared not rob: Therefore I lied to please the mob. Now all my lies are proved untrue And I must face the men I slew. What tale shall serve me here among Mine angry and defrauded young?
I really admired Michael Gove but in recent weeks, what a douchebag he's become.
I've avoided listening to him, Boris, Cameron and indeed almost everyone but I find your comment interesting.
Is he a "douchebag" because he has argued against Cameron ? As I understood it, the Conservative Party was neutral and Cameron himself suspended collective responsibility for the duration of the campaign.
I realise Conservatives have this thing about "loyalty" but you can't allow dissension in the interests of an open debate and then criticise someone for using that to argue their view.
His lies on Turkey and now his Nazi comments this morning, no thanks Michael.
I never thought I would be defending Gove ...
By Nazi comments, do you mean that Gove, quoting Einstein on opponents of relativity, said "Look, if I was wrong, one would have been enough”?
If so, I think you’re doing the smearing.
Einsteins’ comment is a well-known retort when someone says "I must be right because 100 or 1000 other people support me".
Mr Engineer may be right, but you judge his case on its merits, not on how many supporters he has.
You weren't making the comparison, Gove was. He was seriously comparing criticism of his own blind optimism with criticisms of Einstein's theories of relativity. It's just absurd.
No he wasn’t. He was stating that the test of any theory (whether economic or scientific) is not judged by the number of supporters, but by the strength of the (economic or scientific) case.
Of course he was. Why would he use the analogy unless he thought their was some sort of similarity between his and Einstein's ideas?
Parris sums up the elitist attitude of a few sad folk that back REMAIN who look down on all the rest. One step from using phrases such as the "great unwashed" and another step from the eugenics once advocated by lefties such as sidney and beatrice webb.
I've grown to detest him over the last year or so. Danny Fink is a complete gent. The gulf between them is enormous.
In some ways he is correct. Without the vast income that London brings in, the public services that we take for granted would be severly affected.
The ORB poll shows a big increase of the young in certainty to vote fro 30% too 50% and big fall in 65+ showing a fall to 60%. Will that be likely to happen?
Looks like a lot of older ones lied and said remain or won't vote after that murder.
On the subject of Saffers in the UK and which way they are likely to vote, I'd like to draw upon the experience of my wife (In), her sister (In), and her brother-in-law (Out).
However, I think these views are distorted by my mother-in-law. My wife and her sister want their mother (Portuegese passport) to be able to stay in the UK. Their respective spouses (my brother-in-law and me) would rather she was in Portugal or South Africa or Diego Garcia.
I really admired Michael Gove but in recent weeks, what a douchebag he's become.
I've avoided listening to him, Boris, Cameron and indeed almost everyone but I find your comment interesting.
Is he a "douchebag" because he has argued against Cameron ? As I understood it, the Conservative Party was neutral and Cameron himself suspended collective responsibility for the duration of the campaign.
I realise Conservatives have this thing about "loyalty" but you can't allow dissension in the interests of an open debate and then criticise someone for using that to argue their view.
His lies on Turkey and now his Nazi comments this morning, no thanks Michael.
I never thought I would be defending Gove ...
By Nazi comments, do you mean that Gove, quoting Einstein on opponents of relativity, said "Look, if I was wrong, one would have been enough”?
If so, I think you’re doing the smearing.
Einsteins’ comment is a well-known retort when someone says "I must be right because 100 or 1000 other people support me".
The notion that Gove's gerbil-faced optimism about the economic effects of Brexit and Einstein's theories of relativity are in any way comparable is utterly ludicrous.
I am not making such a comparison (although of course when Einstein made his comment, his theory was not universally acknowledged).
Einsteins’s response is a well known response when someone say I must be right because Mr Engineer and his 400 friends agree with me.
Mr Engineer may be right, but you judge his case on its merits, not on how many supporters he has.
You weren't making the comparison, Gove was. He was seriously comparing criticism of his own blind optimism with criticisms of Einstein's theories of relativity. It's just absurd.
No he wasn’t. He was stating that the test of any theory (whether economic or scientific) is not judged by the number of supporters, but by the strength of the (economic or scientific) case.
To conflate a political opinion with a scientific theory displays a warped sense of the business he's in. If he really believes there is a correct answer in politics in the same sense as there is in physics then he's a dangerous ideologue.
Yup. I've never particularly liked Gove, but I never had reason to believe he was anything other than your usual opinionated politician. Now he comes across as quite unhinged.
I'm really tempted to print that out and post it through 20 letterboxes this evening (I'm in Derbyshire). As you say, people should be exposed to uncomfortable truths
I'm finding it mentally very hard to see a "remain" win in Sunderland. Obviously it's ultimately not relevant because if Islington was counting first I couldn't see a "leave" win there.
But Sunderland is a solid Labour area (And I expect Tory areas to be quite pro Brexit as well as "old Labour" places) - which means the pool of "remain" reservoirs is strictly smaller than the Lib Dem + Labour + SNP + Sinn Fein constituencies at the GE.
It's this cognitive dissonance that makes me think "leave" probably wins.
Remain don't need to win Sunderland do they? a narrow loss points towards them winning overall.
Anything over 40% in sunderland probably has remain on track
hmmm Remain need to be closer than that.
I think the par result for Sunderland is 52/48 LEAVE IIRC.
On the subject of Saffers in the UK and which way they are likely to vote, I'd like to draw upon the experience of my wife (In), her sister (In), and her brother-in-law (Out).
However, I think these views are distorted by my mother-in-law. My wife and her sister want their mother (Portuegese passport) to be able to stay in the UK. Their respective spouses (my brother-in-law and me) would rather she was in Portugal or South Africa or Diego Garcia.
I've managed to manipulate my losses and exposure on the betfair brexit market to a few hundred, which considering where I was at the beginning of the week is a much better place to be.
This is one market I have played terribly on the whole, but recovered partly in the last couple of days.
I really admired Michael Gove but in recent weeks, what a douchebag he's become.
I find that this campaign has confirmed just about everything I have always felt about our political leaders - from Dave and George, through Boris and Mike, to Jezza and John. I don't think there is one that I have had cause to reassess.
Chuka?
He's just as invisible as he's always been. Though I like him, he's had almost no impact.
I'm finding it mentally very hard to see a "remain" win in Sunderland. Obviously it's ultimately not relevant because if Islington was counting first I couldn't see a "leave" win there.
But Sunderland is a solid Labour area (And I expect Tory areas to be quite pro Brexit as well as "old Labour" places) - which means the pool of "remain" reservoirs is strictly smaller than the Lib Dem + Labour + SNP + Sinn Fein constituencies at the GE.
It's this cognitive dissonance that makes me think "leave" probably wins.
Remain don't need to win Sunderland do they? a narrow loss points towards them winning overall.
Sunderland got almost twice as many UKIP votes (c. 25%) in 2015 as were achieved UK-wide. It would therefore be very surprising if Leave did not do significantly better there than in the country as a whole.
I would say that - given Nissan - that 55% is the par score for Leave in Sunderland. North of 60%, and they should be the favourite. If it's close to 50/50, then it's all over bar the shouting.
I have been pro Gove as chancellor post the 23rd but it occurred to me that he has probably 'shot himself in the foot' with his rejection of the advice of the Bank of England, IMF, IFS, and others and especially after his remarks today. Reading Sarah Vine today in the Daily Mail how on earth will they reconnect with the Cameron's. Seems there are going to be a lot of regrets from all sides but the surreal aspect of this whole debate is the coming together of the Remain Conservative and Labour sides. This may be a defining moment in our politics as new alliances are formed and those on the left and right are marginalised by a new centre consensus
The ORB poll shows a big increase of the young in certainty to vote fro 30% too 50% and big fall in 65+ showing a fall to 60%. Will that be likely to happen?
A rise of that size for young people. No, I don't think so.
Comments
FWIW, I think Remain will win but the gap will be less than 5 %.
Before placing large sums of money, you should be aware my form is at best variable...
Wales at 73 to sell o_O
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.125254378 England 5-2 to brexit o_O
(plus a teensy weensy bit for @Richard_Tyndall )
I don't think either side should gloat or troll if they win.
In any case, non-EU expat turnout will be far far lower than EU expats who have skin in the game.
My greatest fear is that there's a huge swing to Remain in the privacy of the polling booth tomorrow, that sees a clear Remain victory, and gives a huge shot in the arm to europhilia in the EU and the UK.
There's also only one day to watch it and it's two hours long.
Some will watch on iPlayer, but not many.
He is more than likely right about Turkey, but saying well it won't happen for a decade, maybe two, and even if they did millions of Turks won't suddenly come here...
Those that have witnessed the predicted 10,000's of Poles before, not to mention the Bulgarian, Romanians etc that have come after hearing the same speech a few years ago from politicians might disagree...Oh wait it isn't 10,000's of Eastern Europeans, it is more like 1.5 million.
He is just reminding those that have been affected by such a large influx and / or concerned about it continuing that politicians always say well don't worry this won't happen, and their track record ain't so good.
Probably with a sense of shock and awe as the results came in.
I could be very wrong but I think views are too entrenched either way for it to swing much more outside those boundaries now. It just depends on who turns out and where.
It appears from Michael Gove's Nazi comments that he's losing his critical faculties.
Neither do the pollsters....
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/11287523/Where-are-the-British-expats-in-Europe-This-map-will-tell-you.html
Einsteins’s response is a well known response when someone say I must be right because Mr Engineer and his 400 friends agree with me.
Mr Engineer may be right, but you judge his case on its merits, not on how many supporters he has.
Tissue Price is probably right...the EU will unravel in due course. But you know the markets more than most. If we jump first, the markets will punish us, severely. If we stay in and wait, we will likely be the beneficiaries of an EU implosion.
EICIPM though!!!
But Sunderland is a solid Labour area (And I expect Tory areas to be quite pro Brexit as well as "old Labour" places) - which means the pool of "remain" reservoirs is strictly smaller than the Lib Dem + Labour + SNP + Sinn Fein constituencies at the GE.
It's this cognitive dissonance that makes me think "leave" probably wins.
https://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status/745543730115936256
Michael Gove seems content in this campaign to make bald statements of fact that he almost certainly knows to be untrue.
Gove's not saying "those people are like Nazis", he's referring to a well known quote by Einstein that in essence being correct is not a popularity contest. Gove is saying that the weight of numbers does not make Remain's economic case correct, the ERM and Euro being two good examples where massive numbers of Economists, Bankers, and pundits got it horribly wrong.
You know Remain might win this, but their behaviour has been at least as disreputable as the things they accuse Farage of.
Look at the invective he generates on this site for the stance he has taken.
"Casino- rest assured Europhilia is going to kicked into the long grass for a long, long time after tomorrow.
Tissue Price is probably right...the EU will unravel in due course. But you know the markets more than most. If we jump first, the markets will punish us, severely. If we stay in and wait, we will likely be the beneficiaries of an EU implosion."
I could not dig: I dared not rob:
Therefore I lied to please the mob.
Now all my lies are proved untrue
And I must face the men I slew.
What tale shall serve me here among
Mine angry and defrauded young?
Michael Gove compares experts warning against Brexit to Nazis who smeared Albert Einstein's work as he threatens to quit David Cameron's Cabinet
Worth every penny.
https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/236x/32/27/88/322788be688541581f67580f62d7c126.jpg
http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/rio-ferdinand-why-the-eu-referendum-has-made-me-want-to-vote-for-the-first-time-a3277121.html
However, I think these views are distorted by my mother-in-law. My wife and her sister want their mother (Portuegese passport) to be able to stay in the UK. Their respective spouses (my brother-in-law and me) would rather she was in Portugal or South Africa or Diego Garcia.
Newcastle is due to declare around the same time - I think Newcastle will be more Remain than Sunderland since more LibDemmy.
It will make people see sense and vote remain.
This is one market I have played terribly on the whole, but recovered partly in the last couple of days.
I would say that - given Nissan - that 55% is the par score for Leave in Sunderland. North of 60%, and they should be the favourite. If it's close to 50/50, then it's all over bar the shouting.