In a belated response to David Herdson's article yesterday, there was a third option available to Cameron. Tell the other EU leaders that what they were offering in February was unacceptable, and resume negotiations at a later stage. That's what Lynton Crosby advised, and I wonder why Cameron didn't take that advice.
A couple of reasons I suspect.
Belief the eu would not bend on the biggest things no matter what Concern about Greek or migrant crises occuring and making it harder to win even with a better deal Clashes with electoral cycles of other eu leaders
An interesting header, but a flawed one. The EZ does not cause population movements
The substantial increase in Portuguese, Spanish, Italians and Greeks in London is not because they like the climate.
The young Greek couple I met in Muswell Hill just a short while ago didn't arrive here because they thought working in a coffee shop was the best way to make use of their degrees.
Immigration fantasists? Deniers? I don't know which is more apt.
The rich in Greece country did not pay taxes (still don't), a succession of governments lied about the public finances. That is what buggered the Greek economy.
Maybe so but the rich in Greece are not the ones working in our cafes. It is the victims of the incompetence of their ruling class. As you repeatedly point out Southam it is always so.
I completely agree. And leaving the EU will not change that. As you observe, it will also make no difference to immigration levels for the foreseeable future, if at all.
No, no, we are going to have a horrendous recession and all of the businesses and immigrants are going to abandon ship along with half the indigenous crew, haven't you got the script?
I think it's more likely we do semi-permanent damage to our economy, that the UK suffers substantial harm to its reputation and that none of the promises Leave has made about higher wages, more jobs, cheaper housing and more public spending come to pass. I see it is an act of pointless self harm made on the back of false promises and lies from a part of the establishment that sees an opportunity for itself and has a sepia-tinted view of the UK. I think a lot of ordinary people - who have very reasonably bought the message, for any number of reasons - are not only going to be very disappointed, but also materially harmed. Let's hope I'm wrong and you're right.
Would you prefer that or a country with 90-100 million people in it....
I don't think that we'll get close to that population level. But if that is the genuine Leave prospectus - endure a drop in living standards to keep the population down - then I believe they should have presented it as such.
According to ITV, Jo Cox's birthday is going to be honoured worldwide on Wednesday.
Is there no stopping these people? Maybe Remain tellers in polling stations can wear special armbands and sad faces? And who would want to vote Leave if it meant spitting on the memory of a pretty MP whom before she got murdered they'd never heard of?
Do you know what? I wondered why the monarch hadn't got involved in the honouring of Jo Cox. My first thought was that she hadn't, because the general rule is that she is not seen to involve herself in House of Commons or other parliamentary stuff. Now it seems more likely that she or her advisers chose not to get involved in what was (and is) basically a Remain fest. Because they support Leave.
Maybe Remain tellers can wear badges with pictures of Jo Cox on, "killed for what she believed in", and Leave ones can wear hats festooned with the front page of the Sun: "'Tell me why on earth anyone in their right mind would vote Remain', asks Her Glorious Majesty".
Is that the faint smell of a lack of dignity? Or is it vomit?
Don't know how anyone can claim this to be a free and fair election. But I guess it was to be expected.
I'm very uncomfortable with the way her death has been exploited by "remain". Anecdotally I've seen one my facebook timeline one person's Grandad 'reconsidering their vote' due to Jo Cox.. If it is VERY close then "remain's" victory is undeniably tainted.
No it isn't. Because we won't know how many will have been swayed by that pitch, and even if we did, it ignores all the reasons other people who voted on both sides who will have done so for reasons others think poor or even Unacceptable.
If a victory is tainted due to suspicion of why an unknown number of people voted the way they did, why everyone voted the way they did becomes relevant.
Question...if Britain's membership of the EU has created an economy where there are more UK citizens in work than in the country's history...why is that bad?
If you are being subsidized to work (as shown by the amount still paid in working tax credit and housing benefit to those in work) are you actually working?
Surely if people were actually earning what their actually received (rather than receiving some from government subsidizes) we wouldn't still have the structural deficit that Osbourne has so blatently failed to fixed.
Which is why the higher minimum wage should help and then subsidies can gradually decline
Question...if Britain's membership of the EU has created an economy where there are more UK citizens in work than in the country's history...why is that bad?
If you are being subsidized to work (as shown by the amount still paid in working tax credit and housing benefit to those in work) are you actually working?
Surely if people were actually earning what their actually received (rather than receiving some from government subsidizes) we wouldn't still have the structural deficit that Osbourne has so blatently failed to fixed.
The whole welfare system needs to veer sharply to the right to put it bluntly if we stay in. The one exception to that would be to build more council houses and not flog them on the cheap. Scrap HB too.
We were invaded in the early 13th century by the French, when we suffered the misrule of King John.
Our PM I am afraid to say. The French were also here in Scotland in the 1540s and then there was the Glorious Revolution and there were Viking invasions within the last 1000 years as well.
This referendum debate has been the nastiest brutal hate fest I can remember as I approach 40. The idea that its all over on Friday is plain wrong - its not just the Tories town apart by this, its the country.
Regardless of the result at least one side will be Highly Aggrieved by the actions of their fellow citizens. If we vote to remain we can expect a surge in sneering from the commentariat and establishment politicians only matched by a surge in support for UKIP. If the vote is to leave we can expect a surge of wailing from the commentariat and the sight of the Tories and possibly Labour falling apart.
It is basically a culture war.
A culture war which cuts across, and in my view, could permanently alter, current political allegiances. On one side, those who most value tradition, sovereignty, and independence. On the other, those who most value internationalism, and the free movement of people and capital.
That characterisation also illustrates why Brexit is the wrong question to mobilise around and why a Leave vote will lead to the most bitter feelings of betrayal.
Most of the leading lights pushing for Brexit are firmly on the side of internationalism, and the free movement of people and capital, and believe that EU membership renders us insufficiently free to pursue those goals further and faster. They are exploiting resentment about globalisation to further their own agendas and their own careers.
Too close to call is still my feeling. I just hope that the undecideds swing it for remain.
Very nervous...
It's not the undecideds you have to worry about, it's young people - will they get off their backsides and vote. They'll get no sympathy from me if they complain about facing the consequences of the votes of older people if their turnout is much lower.
My Mum has suggested ordering t-shirts with 'Don't blame me mate, I voted Remain'.
This referendum debate has been the nastiest brutal hate fest I can remember as I approach 40. The idea that its all over on Friday is plain wrong - its not just the Tories town apart by this, its the country.
Regardless of the result at least one side will be Highly Aggrieved by the actions of their fellow citizens. If we vote to remain we can expect a surge in sneering from the commentariat and establishment politicians only matched by a surge in support for UKIP. If the vote is to leave we can expect a surge of wailing from the commentariat and the sight of the Tories and possibly Labour falling apart.
It is basically a culture war.
A culture war which cuts across, and in my view, could permanently alter, current political allegiances. On one side, those who most value tradition, sovereignty, and independence. On the other, those who most value internationalism, and the free movement of people and capital.
Friendships and family ties have been ruptured by it.
Yes Cameron and Chuka Umunna and Clegg have more in common with each other on this, as do Dennis Skinner, Nigel Farage and Iain Duncan Smith on the other side
It is estimated that 27% of registered voters are postal.There are good reasons to believe that Leave will have a lead on postal votes.postal votes are returned quickly,usually within two weeks of being sent out.This period broadly coincides with leaves best opinion poll ratings.The second factor is demographics.postal voters tend to be older and surveys show that this group are strong supporters of brevity and have he highest certainty to vote.Tp put some figures on it given an 80% turnout and a 60:40 split in their favour Leave would get 6 million postal votes and Remain 4.So leave goes into polling day with a 2 million lead in votes. opinion polls include postal votes and votes to be cast on polling day .Currently polls show neck and neck position.But if you exclude postal voters then the shares for polling day voters assuming a 70%. Turnout are 52:48. What this analysis suggests is that leave will have a lead from postal votes and that on polling day itself Remain will have to poll at leat 53% to have a chance of victory.
Saw bits and pieces of the debate. Ruth Davidson got booed and laughed at when she claimed we make the EU work for us, although, to be honest, I'm not sure any of the parts I saw would alter votes.
But then, I'm not utterly undecided.
That was her biggest misstep, although even then if someone had been bold enough to try that line and convince us, it would Have been a positive reason to remain.
She was swinging for the fences - they didn't all work, but she was the most talented one up there.
This referendum debate has been the nastiest brutal hate fest I can remember as I approach 40. The idea that its all over on Friday is plain wrong - its not just the Tories town apart by this, its the country.
Regardless of the result at least one side will be Highly Aggrieved by the actions of their fellow citizens. If we vote to remain we can expect a surge in sneering from the commentariat and establishment politicians only matched by a surge in support for UKIP. If the vote is to leave we can expect a surge of wailing from the commentariat and the sight of the Tories and possibly Labour falling apart.
What happens when we vote leave and wages don't go up, there are not more jobs, housing costs don't fall, public spending is cut further and there is no substantial reduction in immigration? How long do you expect the feelgood factor to last? I think there'll be more to worry about than a wailing commentariat.
Too close to call is still my feeling. I just hope that the undecideds swing it for remain.
Very nervous...
It's not the undecideds you have to worry about, it's young people - will they get off their backsides and vote. They'll get no sympathy from me if they complain about facing the consequences of the votes of older people if their turnout is much lower.
Quite. Governments listen to those whose support they think they need at the next election.
Sean F makes good points as ever. Curiously I will be casting my first ever conservative vote tomorrow. My primary motivations are order, stability and continuity in a world where chaos is lapping at our door. I also feel I'm playing my part in the Burkean contract between the dead, the living and the unborn. All this is entirely alien to me. It's a lifetime first.
Too close to call is still my feeling. I just hope that the undecideds swing it for remain.
Very nervous...
It's not the undecideds you have to worry about, it's young people - will they get off their backsides and vote. They'll get no sympathy from me if they complain about facing the consequences of the votes of older people if their turnout is much lower.
You could equally say the same about some of the working classes and young people have registered to vote at a higher rate for the referendum, are all the working class Leavers on the register?
Too close to call is still my feeling. I just hope that the undecideds swing it for remain.
Very nervous...
It's not the undecideds you have to worry about, it's young people - will they get off their backsides and vote. They'll get no sympathy from me if they complain about facing the consequences of the votes of older people if their turnout is much lower.
My Mum has suggested ordering t-shirts with 'Don't blame me mate, I voted Remain'.
Saw bits and pieces of the debate. Ruth Davidson got booed and laughed at when she claimed we make the EU work for us, although, to be honest, I'm not sure any of the parts I saw would alter votes.
But then, I'm not utterly undecided.
That was her biggest misstep, although even then if someone had been bold enough to try that line and convince us, it would Have been a positive reason to remain.
She was swinging for the fences - they didn't all work, but she was the most talented one up there.
Both sides had a message they each wanted to repeat over and over: 'Take back control' and 'this is an irreversible decision".
This referendum debate has been the nastiest brutal hate fest I can remember as I approach 40. The idea that its all over on Friday is plain wrong - its not just the Tories town apart by this, its the country.
Regardless of the result at least one side will be Highly Aggrieved by the actions of their fellow citizens. If we vote to remain we can expect a surge in sneering from the commentariat and establishment politicians only matched by a surge in support for UKIP. If the vote is to leave we can expect a surge of wailing from the commentariat and the sight of the Tories and possibly Labour falling apart.
What happens when we vote leave and wages don't go up, there are not more jobs, housing costs don't fall, public spending is cut further and there is no substantial reduction in immigration? How long do you expect the feelgood factor to last? I think there'll be more to worry about than a wailing commentariat.
That's the missing part of the observation. Leave would create a surge in expectation, followed by a surge in resentment. It won't be the commentariat that's wailing.
Sean F makes good points as ever. Curiously I will be casting my first ever conservative vote tomorrow. My primary motivations are order, stability and continuity in a world where chaos is lapping at our door. I also feel I'm playing my part in the Burkean contract between the dead, the living and the unborn. All this is entirely alien to me. It's a lifetime first.
Well since the Conservatives have completely dominated both sides of the debate that is somewhat inevitable if you are going to vote at all. But which Conservatives are you going to vote for?
They are driven even more by social class which is good news for Remain as the middle-class vote
Nothing is simple about this is it?
No it is a question of who votes more, the middle-class or the old or who votes less, the young or the working class and unemployed
Remain are hoping that working class people in safe Labour seats with normally low turnouts who dont normally vote as their seat is a foregone conclusion are too thick and lazy to work out that in a referendum this dosent apply.
Having heard reports of council estates festooned with so many st george flags and brexit posters that they look like the DUPs North Belfast heartland on July 12th , I doubt it is much of a straw to clutch.
I can't help thinking that rather than being a throwback, the politics of Northern Ireland are the future in the rest of the country, hopefully without the violence. People voting on the basis of identity and values, rather than economic interests.
This referendum debate has been the nastiest brutal hate fest I can remember as I approach 40. The idea that its all over on Friday is plain wrong - its not just the Tories town apart by this, its the country.
Regardless of the result at least one side will be Highly Aggrieved by the actions of their fellow citizens. If we vote to remain we can expect a surge in sneering from the commentariat and establishment politicians only matched by a surge in support for UKIP. If the vote is to leave we can expect a surge of wailing from the commentariat and the sight of the Tories and possibly Labour falling apart.
It is basically a culture war.
A culture war which cuts across, and in my view, could permanently alter, current political allegiances. On one side, those who most value tradition, sovereignty, and independence. On the other, those who most value internationalism, and the free movement of people and capital.
That characterisation also illustrates why Brexit is the wrong question to mobilise around and why a Leave vote will lead to the most bitter feelings of betrayal.
Most of the leading lights pushing for Brexit are firmly on the side of internationalism, and the free movement of people and capital, and believe that EU membership renders us insufficiently free to pursue those goals further and faster. They are exploiting resentment about globalisation to further their own agendas and their own careers.
In a nutshell. But the social consequences could be very bad.
Interestingly Ive not seen a single anecodote along the lines of people voting Brexit by post and then regretting it after last weeks outrage.
FB Friend: (A Corbyn supporter as it happens) 22 hrs · It's been a bit of a chore to check facebook in the last few days. Full of people shoving their ideology down your throat. It's up to you to look at available information yourself and make a choice. Whatever you think, makes no odds to me. Doesn't make you a better or worse person. As for me, I'll be voting leave.
(His sister I think) Granddad had change of heart, pleased to hear you won't think any less of him Like · Reply · 1 · 20 hrs (His sister I think) He just said he is considering his position because of death of jo cox
This referendum debate has been the nastiest brutal hate fest I can remember as I approach 40. The idea that its all over on Friday is plain wrong - its not just the Tories town apart by this, its the country.
Regardless of the result at least one side will be Highly Aggrieved by the actions of their fellow citizens. If we vote to remain we can expect a surge in sneering from the commentariat and establishment politicians only matched by a surge in support for UKIP. If the vote is to leave we can expect a surge of wailing from the commentariat and the sight of the Tories and possibly Labour falling apart.
It is basically a culture war.
A culture war which cuts across, and in my view, could permanently alter, current political allegiances. On one side, those who most value tradition, sovereignty, and independence. On the other, those who most value internationalism, and the free movement of people and capital.
Friendships and family ties have been ruptured by it.
I am voting Remain because I think it gives us the best chance of delivering decent living standards to the highest number of people. That may be a recognition that we operate within a globalised economy, but it does not mean I do not value sovereignty, tradition and independence. It probably does mean, though, that I see them differently to you.
Sean F makes good points as ever. Curiously I will be casting my first ever conservative vote tomorrow. My primary motivations are order, stability and continuity in a world where chaos is lapping at our door. I also feel I'm playing my part in the Burkean contract between the dead, the living and the unborn. All this is entirely alien to me. It's a lifetime first.
Well since the Conservatives have completely dominated both sides of the debate that is somewhat inevitable if you are going to vote at all. But which Conservatives are you going to vote for?
They are driven even more by social class which is good news for Remain as the middle-class vote
Nothing is simple about this is it?
No it is a question of who votes more, the middle-class or the old or who votes less, the young or the working class and unemployed
Remain are hoping that working class people in safe Labour seats with normally low turnouts who dont normally vote as their seat is a foregone conclusion are too thick and lazy to work out that in a referendum this dosent apply.
Having heard reports of council estates festooned with so many st george flags and brexit posters that they look like the DUPs North Belfast heartland on July 12th , I doubt it is much of a straw to clutch.
Of course England playing in the European Championships may also explain the flags
Too close to call is still my feeling. I just hope that the undecideds swing it for remain.
Very nervous...
It's not the undecideds you have to worry about, it's young people - will they get off their backsides and vote. They'll get no sympathy from me if they complain about facing the consequences of the votes of older people if their turnout is much lower.
You could equally say the same about some of the working classes and young people have registered to vote at a higher rate for the referendum, are all the working class Leavers on the register?
A possibility. I think that's where anecdote makes leave confident - Young people, visible ones, always say they'll vote and don't. Working class, many never pretend they're going to, but this time say they will. It will be less than say they will, but I think it more likely their turn out will be higher than young people,
They are driven even more by social class which is good news for Remain as the middle-class vote
Nothing is simple about this is it?
No it is a question of who votes more, the middle-class or the old or who votes less, the young or the working class and unemployed
Remain are hoping that working class people in safe Labour seats with normally low turnouts who dont normally vote as their seat is a foregone conclusion are too thick and lazy to work out that in a referendum this dosent apply.
Having heard reports of council estates festooned with so many st george flags and brexit posters that they look like the DUPs North Belfast heartland on July 12th , I doubt it is much of a straw to clutch.
I can't help thinking that rather than being a throwback, the politics of Northern Ireland are the future in the rest of the country, hopefully without the violence. People voting on the basis of identity and values, rather than economic interests.
People only vote on economic interests when they share identity and values.
Question...if Britain's membership of the EU has created an economy where there are more UK citizens in work than in the country's history...why is that bad?
If you are being subsidized to work (as shown by the amount still paid in working tax credit and housing benefit to those in work) are you actually working?
Surely if people were actually earning what their actually received (rather than receiving some from government subsidizes) we wouldn't still have the structural deficit that Osbourne has so blatently failed to fixed.
Which is why the higher minimum wage should help and then subsidies can gradually decline
Yep the higher minimum wage would work - if
1) jobs are not removed because of it (looking at a currently being refurbished Morrisons it now has 4 full shop self service tills so that's at least 3 less members of staff)... Likewise refurbished McDonalds will require less staff as tills become self service... 2) It wasn't going to encourage more immigrants to come here. We come back to the 6 month old Aldi next to a council estate in County Durham. 500 unemployed in the council estate and 16 Eastern European workers in the Aldi.
I know why Osbourne did it (the other options are all politically unpalatable) unfortunately it doesn't work.
This referendum debate has been the nastiest brutal hate fest I can remember as I approach 40. The idea that its all over on Friday is plain wrong - its not just the Tories town apart by this, its the country.
Regardless of the result at least one side will be Highly Aggrieved by the actions of their fellow citizens. If we vote to remain we can expect a surge in sneering from the commentariat and establishment politicians only matched by a surge in support for UKIP. If the vote is to leave we can expect a surge of wailing from the commentariat and the sight of the Tories and possibly Labour falling apart.
What happens when we vote leave and wages don't go up, there are not more jobs, housing costs don't fall, public spending is cut further and there is no substantial reduction in immigration? How long do you expect the feelgood factor to last? I think there'll be more to worry about than a wailing commentariat.
I think it will be perceived as much worse if we vote remain and then we have a recession next year regardless just at the point we have to bale out Greece and probably Italy as well.
They are driven even more by social class which is good news for Remain as the middle-class vote
Nothing is simple about this is it?
No it is a question of who votes more, the middle-class or the old or who votes less, the young or the working class and unemployed
Remain are hoping that working class people in safe Labour seats with normally low turnouts who dont normally vote as their seat is a foregone conclusion are too thick and lazy to work out that in a referendum this dosent apply.
Having heard reports of council estates festooned with so many st george flags and brexit posters that they look like the DUPs North Belfast heartland on July 12th , I doubt it is much of a straw to clutch.
Sky vox popped a worker at Billingsgate earlier - hasn't voted in 20yrs but says he'll be at the polling station at 7am this time. Very committed - bothered about sovereignty.
Question...if Britain's membership of the EU has created an economy where there are more UK citizens in work than in the country's history...why is that bad?
This referendum debate has been the nastiest brutal hate fest I can remember as I approach 40. The idea that its all over on Friday is plain wrong - its not just the Tories town apart by this, its the country.
Regardless of the result at least one side will be Highly Aggrieved by the actions of their fellow citizens. If we vote to remain we can expect a surge in sneering from the commentariat and establishment politicians only matched by a surge in support for UKIP. If the vote is to leave we can expect a surge of wailing from the commentariat and the sight of the Tories and possibly Labour falling apart.
What happens when we vote leave and wages don't go up, there are not more jobs, housing costs don't fall, public spending is cut further and there is no substantial reduction in immigration? How long do you expect the feelgood factor to last? I think there'll be more to worry about than a wailing commentariat.
That's the missing part of the observation. Leave would create a surge in expectation, followed by a surge in resentment. It won't be the commentariat that's wailing.
Nope, they'll be fine; just like the Establishment elite that have made the Leave case. Two things we do know: Boris, Mike and co will do all they can to avoid rises in direct taxation (especially at the top end) and to prevent a precpitous fall in house prices. That means we're voing to be looking at more public spending cuts, possible VAT hikes and even less housebuilding. Guess who that affects.
Wonder who will be "ashen faced", and who will be "very confident".
Not long to go now !
Thank God. Even an anorak like me has become sick to the back teeth of this one. I don't think we've learnt much more about either sides arguments in all the months of campaigning.
These are things I think we have learnt about politics:
* More people are sick of the EU in UK than the establishment ever thought * Brexit people have been agitating for decades, but appear to have no plan for what happens. * We have become so untangled in EU single market, that leaving will be an expensive and very difficult exercise. * Labour has a huge issue over where it goes next with respect to immigration. * Cultural issues are taking on a salience that we've not seen in this country before (see previous point). US elections have been dominated by 'cultural wars' for a while now - will we go down that road? * The Tory part is split but not down the middle.
This referendum debate has been the nastiest brutal hate fest I can remember as I approach 40. The idea that its all over on Friday is plain wrong - its not just the Tories town apart by this, its the country.
Regardless of the result at least one side will be Highly Aggrieved by the actions of their fellow citizens. If we vote to remain we can expect a surge in sneering from the commentariat and establishment politicians only matched by a surge in support for UKIP. If the vote is to leave we can expect a surge of wailing from the commentariat and the sight of the Tories and possibly Labour falling apart.
What happens when we vote leave and wages don't go up, there are not more jobs, housing costs don't fall, public spending is cut further and there is no substantial reduction in immigration? How long do you expect the feelgood factor to last? I think there'll be more to worry about than a wailing commentariat.
I think it will be perceived as much worse if we vote remain and then we have a recession next year regardless just at the point we have to bale out Greece and probably Italy as well.
Well, we'll never know. Leave is about to take ownership of the UK economy.
It really is a shame the eu gave so little in the negotiations, then acted like we we lucky to get that much. My heart woukd really prefer to remain, to not risk it, to believe in a shared European dream which included rather than drags along the uk. But that failure was the final proof it was just a fantasy.
They are driven even more by social class which is good news for Remain as the middle-class vote
Nothing is simple about this is it?
No it is a question of who votes more, the middle-class or the old or who votes less, the young or the working class and unemployed
Remain are hoping that working class people in safe Labour seats with normally low turnouts who dont normally vote as their seat is a foregone conclusion are too thick and lazy to work out that in a referendum this dosent apply.
Having heard reports of council estates festooned with so many st george flags and brexit posters that they look like the DUPs North Belfast heartland on July 12th , I doubt it is much of a straw to clutch.
Sky vox popped a worker at Billingsgate earlier - hasn't voted in 20yrs but says he'll be at the polling station at 7am this time. Very committed - bothered about sovereignty.
One of my drinking compadres is voting tomorrow. The last time he voted it was for Reggie Maudling
It really is a shame the eu gave so little in the negotiations, then acted like we we lucky to get that much. My heart woukd really prefer to remain, to not risk it, to believe in a shared European dream which included rather than drags along the uk. But that failure was the final proof it was just a fantasy.
So you will now vote Leave knowing full well such a vote will usher in an economic crisis? I had expected you to come to your senses by now.
It is estimated that 27% of registered voters are postal.There are good reasons to believe that Leave will have a lead on postal votes.postal votes are returned quickly,usually within two weeks of being sent out.This period broadly coincides with leaves best opinion poll ratings.The second factor is demographics.postal voters tend to be older and surveys show that this group are strong supporters of brevity and have he highest certainty to vote.Tp put some figures on it given an 80% turnout and a 60:40 split in their favour Leave would get 6 million postal votes and Remain 4.So leave goes into polling day with a 2 million lead in votes. opinion polls include postal votes and votes to be cast on polling day .Currently polls show neck and neck position.But if you exclude postal voters then the shares for polling day voters assuming a 70%. Turnout are 52:48. What this analysis suggests is that leave will have a lead from postal votes and that on polling day itself Remain will have to poll at leat 53% to have a chance of victory.
There is so much hooky maths in this post that it is hard to know where to start. 27% of registered voters are not postal voters, it is nearer 17%. Postal voters are typically either elderly, from ethnic minorities, or students. Only the first of these breaks for leave. Not all postal votes come back early - there will be a batch that comes back at the last minute and it is increasingly common for people to take them into the polling station on the day. Do we believe the opinion polls in the first place? If we don't, then the whole analysis is rubbish. If we do, then consider that for every leave vote you have counted as an "already voted" person there is one fewer leave voter left in the rest of the population. Hence the more leave voters you are going to assume have voted already, the more biased towards remain is the rest of the population....but of course the polls include everybody, voted or not.
So your assumptions are rubbish, your analysis is rubbish and you conclusion is rubbish. Other than that, great post.
Question...if Britain's membership of the EU has created an economy where there are more UK citizens in work than in the country's history...why is that bad?
I wouldn't call zero-hours "work".
You know how few people are on zero hours contracts, right? And what proportion of those actually like them?
They are driven even more by social class which is good news for Remain as the middle-class vote
Nothing is simple about this is it?
No it is a question of who votes more, the middle-class or the old or who votes less, the young or the working class and unemployed
Remain are hoping that working class people in safe Labour seats with normally low turnouts who dont normally vote as their seat is a foregone conclusion are too thick and lazy to work out that in a referendum this dosent apply.
Having heard reports of council estates festooned with so many st george flags and brexit posters that they look like the DUPs North Belfast heartland on July 12th , I doubt it is much of a straw to clutch.
I can't help thinking that rather than being a throwback, the politics of Northern Ireland are the future in the rest of the country, hopefully without the violence. People voting on the basis of identity and values, rather than economic interests.
People only vote on economic interests when they share identity and values.
This is why multiculturalism is a disaster.
The reason the polls are narrowing in Northern Ireland is also clear. If Nationalists strongly favour Remain, Unionists will strongly favour Brexit, and vice versa.
They are driven even more by social class which is good news for Remain as the middle-class vote
Nothing is simple about this is it?
No it is a question of who votes more, the middle-class or the old or who votes less, the young or the working class and unemployed
Remain are hoping that working class people in safe Labour seats with normally low turnouts who dont normally vote as their seat is a foregone conclusion are too thick and lazy to work out that in a referendum this dosent apply.
Having heard reports of council estates festooned with so many st george flags and brexit posters that they look like the DUPs North Belfast heartland on July 12th , I doubt it is much of a straw to clutch.
I can't help thinking that rather than being a throwback, the politics of Northern Ireland are the future in the rest of the country, hopefully without the violence. People voting on the basis of identity and values, rather than economic interests.
That's an interesting perspective. A thread on that would be fascinating.
If Brexit will severely damaged the economy in the short term won't that reduce immigration, as there will be fewer vacancies?
Remains scare stories don't stack up - like this one - as they all counteract against each other
Deja vu all over again, Charles.
If we Leave the EU, the country will enter into an unprecedented period of turmoil which will affect economic growth.
It's not difficult stuff.
I know it's not difficult which is why I font understand why you find it so hard.
There will be an interim period of disruption. This will result in slightly slower growth but it will be positive.
This is quite different from the Armageddon scenarios painted by Remain which in my view completely lack credibility.
For instance, you heard Cameron on R4 this morning. Presumably you also heard the German Cbi equivalent head sayi g it would be stupid for the EU to impose trade barriers post Brexit
1. Yes. The EU is dying anyway. It must become a country or split up. The UK will never willingly join the superstate - so either some sort of formal 'two speed EU' is coming or we're gone in a few years' time anyway. 2. The result is going to be tight. A narrow Leave win will create a conclusion. We'll leave (under perhaps not the terms voters hoped), but we're gone never to return. A very narrow Remain vote merely starts the clock ticking for the next instalment of a neverendum (and internal political chaos within the UK). A very narrow Remain settles nothing.
Question...if Britain's membership of the EU has created an economy where there are more UK citizens in work than in the country's history...why is that bad?
I wouldn't call zero-hours "work".
You know how few people are on zero hours contracts, right? And what proportion of those actually like them?
Thought not.
I had a zero hours contract. 20 years ago as a student it was the greatest thing ever - turn up when you can be bothered, if they have work you work, if they don't have work back to the pub.
20 years on with a family and commitments a zero hours contract would be a nightmare. No security. No guaranteed income.
Ask people on zero hours if they'd like guaranteed hours. Unlike the result of this referendum it wouldn't be close...
They are driven even more by social class which is good news for Remain as the middle-class vote
Nothing is simple about this is it?
No it is a question of who votes more, the middle-class or the old or who votes less, the young or the working class and unemployed
Remain are hoping that working class people in safe Labour seats with normally low turnouts who dont normally vote as their seat is a foregone conclusion are too thick and lazy to work out that in a referendum this dosent apply.
Having heard reports of council estates festooned with so many st george flags and brexit posters that they look like the DUPs North Belfast heartland on July 12th , I doubt it is much of a straw to clutch.
I can't help thinking that rather than being a throwback, the politics of Northern Ireland are the future in the rest of the country, hopefully without the violence. People voting on the basis of identity and values, rather than economic interests.
A terrifying prospect. Yet a not necessarily incorrect forecast.
In a belated response to David Herdson's article yesterday, there was a third option available to Cameron. Tell the other EU leaders that what they were offering in February was unacceptable, and resume negotiations at a later stage. That's what Lynton Crosby advised, and I wonder why Cameron didn't take that advice.
I agree to an extent, although that would only ever have been a kick the can down the road option. Ultimately - and by this time next year - he'd have still have had to picked one side or the other.
That said, I agree with those who say that the whole thing's been rushed. I do think that proper reform might have been possible given a slightly longer timescale. However, it'd have been a tight balance; it'd have needed things to have become worse (to prompt the EU and other states into action), before then requiring a saleable deal and the prospects of events improving in a way in which the EU takes some credit. That's a lot to ask in a short time.
That said, both Germany and France face elections next year. Euroscepticism is rising in both and Hollande in particular is in deep doo-doo. It would benefit them to seek to be seen to be addressing the problem. Admittedly, one of the two biggest issues currently facing the EU states - the migrant crisis - wasn't an act of the Union at all but of one of its states and the other, the Greek debt situation, can't be solved quickly without someone losing out big style (almost certainly the creditors). Even so, it would have provided a window of opportunity. I'd guess that the judgement is that that opportunity wasn't worth the risk of 'events'.
According to ITV, Jo Cox's birthday is going to be honoured worldwide on Wednesday.
Is there no stopping these people? Maybe Remain tellers in polling stations can wear special armbands and sad faces? And who would want to vote Leave if it meant spitting on the memory of a pretty MP whom before she got murdered they'd never heard of?
Do you know what? I wondered why the monarch hadn't got involved in the honouring of Jo Cox. My first thought was that she hadn't, because the general rule is that she is not seen to involve herself in House of Commons or other parliamentary stuff. Now it seems more likely that she or her advisers chose not to get involved in what was (and is) basically a Remain fest. Because they support Leave.
Maybe Remain tellers can wear badges with pictures of Jo Cox on, "killed for what she believed in", and Leave ones can wear hats festooned with the front page of the Sun: "'Tell me why on earth anyone in their right mind would vote Remain', asks Her Glorious Majesty".
Is that the faint smell of a lack of dignity? Or is it vomit?
Don't know how anyone can claim this to be a free and fair election. But I guess it was to be expected.
The idea it hasn't been free and fair because you don't like how you the other side gave pitched their arguments is utterly farcical. If there are other reasons you don't think it free or fair you don't list them here, so I presume you feel the Cox stuff makes it unfair on its own, which is ridiculous.
What makes it unfair is extending the registration deadline by two days when that website only went down by a couple hours. What makes it unfair is council have been " moving along" Leave stalls whilst allowing remain stalls to stay. Also breaking purdah rules by the PM yesterday. As well as the £9million on those leaflets. I'm sure others have their own local stories as well
Thank you to Tissue Price for a most interesting piece. I could easily support a European Union which actively helped the poorest regions and had been an instrumental factor in rebuilding the economies of first southern and then eastern Europe.
That EU, funded of course by the wealthier European countries (Britain and the then West Germany) could have instigated long term capital infrastructure projects, supported local small businesses and advised local Governments on how to stimulate pro-market pro-business economies.
Unfortunately, we didn't get that EU. Instead, we fell into the age old trap of letting the people go to the money - if they clean offices in Dortmund or serve coffee in Dalston they can send the money home and enrich their own countries.
Nice idea but with freedom of movement, who needs it ? One third of Lithuania has gone and unlike the Golgafrinchans (that's a Hitchhiker's reference for TSE's benefit), they didn't choose the telephone sanitizers or the political website editors - it was anyone and everyone so the criminals and the feckless mixed with the hard working and the law abiding.
Having recently been in Greece, I've seen the ravages of the Euro and the failure of both successive Greek Governments and the European Union. I don't agree the inevitability is political and economic union - rich countries helping poorer countries doesn't require currency harmonisation, it requires political will and a change in our economic culture.
1) jobs are not removed ... 2) It wasn't going to encourage more immigrants to come here. ...
You missed one more; 3) It suppresses other wages. To pay for a minimum wage, employers must find savings elsewhere, so either cut other salaries or cut jobs.
It is Economics 101.
(I'm surprised Osborne doesnt know - or he probably does)
They are driven even more by social class which is good news for Remain as the middle-class vote
Nothing is simple about this is it?
No it is a question of who votes more, the middle-class or the old or who votes less, the young or the working class and unemployed
Remain are hoping that working class people in safe Labour seats with normally low turnouts who dont normally vote as their seat is a foregone conclusion are too thick and lazy to work out that in a referendum this dosent apply.
Having heard reports of council estates festooned with so many st george flags and brexit posters that they look like the DUPs North Belfast heartland on July 12th , I doubt it is much of a straw to clutch.
I can't help thinking that rather than being a throwback, the politics of Northern Ireland are the future in the rest of the country, hopefully without the violence. People voting on the basis of identity and values, rather than economic interests.
A terrifying prospect. Yet a not necessarily incorrect forecast.
It's not happening any time soon. Wake me up when we have MPs from the Muslim Brotherhood in parliament.
The division that SeanF identifies is basically a re-framing of the age old capital vs. labour split, only now some Tories are realising that they are on the side of labour.
They are driven even more by social class which is good news for Remain as the middle-class vote
Nothing is simple about this is it?
No it is a question of who votes more, the middle-class or the old or who votes less, the young or the working class and unemployed
Remain are hoping that working class people in safe Labour seats with normally low turnouts who dont normally vote as their seat is a foregone conclusion are too thick and lazy to work out that in a referendum this dosent apply.
Having heard reports of council estates festooned with so many st george flags and brexit posters that they look like the DUPs North Belfast heartland on July 12th , I doubt it is much of a straw to clutch.
I can't help thinking that rather than being a throwback, the politics of Northern Ireland are the future in the rest of the country, hopefully without the violence. People voting on the basis of identity and values, rather than economic interests.
People only vote on economic interests when they share identity and values.
This is why multiculturalism is a disaster.
So we all agree that a lot of Leave voters are voting Leave against their economic interests. The big issue is whether they realise this and accept that what the Leave campaign is saying is basically untrue. I have my doubts. We'll soon find out, though.
Question...if Britain's membership of the EU has created an economy where there are more UK citizens in work than in the country's history...why is that bad?
I wouldn't call zero-hours "work".
You know how few people are on zero hours contracts, right? And what proportion of those actually like them?
Thought not.
Zero hours? That must be one of the EU Worker Rights benefits we keep hearing about from REMAIN
If we pull this off maybe we'll can get a new bank holiday?
It's all jolly exciting. I'm holding down my emotions - getting beaten would awful, but we've made it very very close. If we win - I'll be dancing in my underwear
That characterisation also illustrates why Brexit is the wrong question to mobilise around and why a Leave vote will lead to the most bitter feelings of betrayal.
Most of the leading lights pushing for Brexit are firmly on the side of internationalism, and the free movement of people and capital, and believe that EU membership renders us insufficiently free to pursue those goals further and faster. They are exploiting resentment about globalisation to further their own agendas and their own careers.
Yes, I think the key momnt in last night's debate which the Remain team successfully raised but weren't flexible enough to exploit was the revelation that the Leave team are not promising ANY reduction in immigration. They merely say it'd be nice to be able to control the issue, so that when we have, for example, the same number, we can say it was our decision.
Having spent the entire campaign implying that the key to voting Leave is to reducing immigration, that seemed to me entirely telling, and the Remain speakers should have dropped whatever they were planning to say in order to jump all over it.
I don't think that we'll get close to that population level. But if that is the genuine Leave prospectus - endure a drop in living standards to keep the population down - then I believe they should have presented it as such.
Have all the complaints over the last few years about stagnating wages, crumbling services and sky high housing costs been fictitious?
How about the distortions in wealth and income distribution?
All those arguments are predicated on the notion that living standards are already falling for a large number of people.
Similarly, have Remain abolished boom and bust? They do seem to be implying that things will never change and that there will never be a recession or downturn.
Question...if Britain's membership of the EU has created an economy where there are more UK citizens in work than in the country's history...why is that bad?
I wouldn't call zero-hours "work".
You know how few people are on zero hours contracts, right? And what proportion of those actually like them?
Thought not.
I had a zero hours contract. 20 years ago as a student it was the greatest thing ever - turn up when you can be bothered, if they have work you work, if they don't have work back to the pub.
20 years on with a family and commitments a zero hours contract would be a nightmare. No security. No guaranteed income.
Ask people on zero hours if they'd like guaranteed hours. Unlike the result of this referendum it wouldn't be close...
Oh for sure - but allowing something as a government (and I'd back any government that allows ZHC) isn't saying 'this is all you can have'. As an employer (not one who uses ZHC, but I can see why people would), I can understand that in some sectors the flexibility is paramount.
Should we allow ZHC - sure. Should we encourage more full time jobs. Sure. Are ZHC often a gateway to full time jobs - whether at the same employer or a new one. Sure.
The debate last night was revealing in so many ways: Boris is a bumbler who is unfit to be the PM. Andrea 'take back control' has revealed her limitations. Gisela is a strong performer who has no answers to the question of limiting immigration apart from 'take back control.' The Remainers were stronger especially Ruth, her answers were both logical and passionate and she may have influenced some undecided voters.
They are driven even more by social class which is good news for Remain as the middle-class vote
Nothing is simple about this is it?
No it is a question of who votes more, the middle-class or the old or who votes less, the young or the working class and unemployed
Remain are hoping that working class people in safe Labour seats with normally low turnouts who dont normally vote as their seat is a foregone conclusion are too thick and lazy to work out that in a referendum this dosent apply.
Having heard reports of council estates festooned with so many st george flags and brexit posters that they look like the DUPs North Belfast heartland on July 12th , I doubt it is much of a straw to clutch.
I can't help thinking that rather than being a throwback, the politics of Northern Ireland are the future in the rest of the country, hopefully without the violence. People voting on the basis of identity and values, rather than economic interests.
A terrifying prospect. Yet a not necessarily incorrect forecast.
It's not happening any time soon. Wake me up when we have MPs from the Muslim Brotherhood in parliament.
The division that SeanF identifies is basically a re-framing of the age old capital vs. labour split, only now some Tories are realising that they are on the side of labour.
It really is a shame the eu gave so little in the negotiations, then acted like we we lucky to get that much. My heart woukd really prefer to remain, to not risk it, to believe in a shared European dream which included rather than drags along the uk. But that failure was the final proof it was just a fantasy.
So you will now vote Leave knowing full well such a vote will usher in an economic crisis? I had expected you to come to your senses by now.
Correction - I know there are risks. It is not a simple matter of economics.
The price cannot be too high. I have had to assess whether being stuck in an organisation which we dont support the ultimate aims of and which holds our concerns in absolute contempt, is a price worth paying to avoid short to medium term economic shocks. I also have to assess if the level of those shocks is a price worth accepting if we are to leave. How big a crisis is acceptable, particularly since a recession is coming soon anyway?
You may disagree with my current conclusions, but I have thought about it.
The problem is, the eu does not want us in it, not really. They want a uk in it, paying in, helping out, but they dont want the real uk in it. That, to me, seems unquestionable.
They want the dream of a uk to remain in a dream eu. But we have to wake up and be rational and look at them both as they are - that means accepting there is A price to leaving, but also accepting staying in is not consequence free.
It's not easy - the eu is unpalatable, undemocratic and it is, the crucial part, incapable of effective change. Because it has no lasting, genuine acceptance it is needed. But it will hurt at first, and I dislike pain and change.
In a belated response to David Herdson's article yesterday, there was a third option available to Cameron. Tell the other EU leaders that what they were offering in February was unacceptable, and resume negotiations at a later stage. That's what Lynton Crosby advised, and I wonder why Cameron didn't take that advice.
I agree to an extent, although that would only ever have been a kick the can down the road option. Ultimately - and by this time next year - he'd have still have had to picked one side or the other.
That said, I agree with those who say that the whole thing's been rushed. I do think that proper reform might have been possible given a slightly longer timescale. However, it'd have been a tight balance; it'd have needed things to have become worse (to prompt the EU and other states into action), before then requiring a saleable deal and the prospects of events improving in a way in which the EU takes some credit. That's a lot to ask in a short time.
That said, both Germany and France face elections next year. Euroscepticism is rising in both and Hollande in particular is in deep doo-doo. It would benefit them to seek to be seen to be addressing the problem. Admittedly, one of the two biggest issues currently facing the EU states - the migrant crisis - wasn't an act of the Union at all but of one of its states and the other, the Greek debt situation, can't be solved quickly without someone losing out big style (almost certainly the creditors). Even so, it would have provided a window of opportunity. I'd guess that the judgement is that that opportunity wasn't worth the risk of 'events'.
I don't think any more substantial reform could have been agreed in time for a referendum by the end of 2017 (possibly committing to that date was a mistake?)
That being so, I think Cameron was well advised to try to get it done quickly. He may very well lose but I think he'd be in a worse, not better condition, if we were doing this a year later.
And as a p.s. to my earlier post, a big chunk of the postal voters will be ex-pats, normally a group with very low turnout, but not this time! Plus Gibraltar. Assume these are overwhelmingly remain. None covered by opinion polling. Northern Ireland also excluded from polling, but assumed to lean to remain. So surely it is actually Leave that needs to be ahead in the polls by a margin probably greater than 1% in order to have a chance of winning?
Should we allow ZHC - sure. Should we encourage more full time jobs. Sure. Are ZHC often a gateway to full time jobs - whether at the same employer or a new one. Sure.
No brainer for me.
I would allow ZHCs. But it is not a job for official purposes - zero hours is zero pay. So on ZHC your declared hours and salary are both zero. You can't get a loan or a mortgage on zero fixed income...
They are driven even more by social class which is good news for Remain as the middle-class vote
Nothing is simple about this is it?
No it is a question of who votes more, the middle-class or the old or who votes less, the young or the working class and unemployed
Remain are hoping that working class people in safe Labour seats with normally low turnouts who dont normally vote as their seat is a foregone conclusion are too thick and lazy to work out that in a referendum this dosent apply.
Having heard reports of council estates festooned with so many st george flags and brexit posters that they look like the DUPs North Belfast heartland on July 12th , I doubt it is much of a straw to clutch.
I can't help thinking that rather than being a throwback, the politics of Northern Ireland are the future in the rest of the country, hopefully without the violence. People voting on the basis of identity and values, rather than economic interests.
A terrifying prospect. Yet a not necessarily incorrect forecast.
It's not happening any time soon. Wake me up when we have MPs from the Muslim Brotherhood in parliament.
The division that SeanF identifies is basically a re-framing of the age old capital vs. labour split, only now some Tories are realising that they are on the side of labour.
I don't think that we'll get close to that population level. But if that is the genuine Leave prospectus - endure a drop in living standards to keep the population down - then I believe they should have presented it as such.
Have all the complaints over the last few years about stagnating wages, crumbling services and sky high housing costs been fictitious?
How about the distortions in wealth and income distribution?
All those arguments are predicated on the notion that living standards are already falling for a large number of people.
Similarly, have Remain abolished boom and bust? They do seem to be implying that things will never change and that there will never be a recession or downturn.
Yes, we have been through a major financial crisis that precipitated a major slowdown in all developed economies. Across Europe, including the UK, the response - supported very vocally by Tory Leavers and others on the right - was to make major cuts to public spending. I agree that we should have tried a different strategy. But electorates thought differently.
The last bastion of non-political activity fell yesterday morning.
We never and I mean never talk politics in my office. Occasionally, we talk about work but we cover the gamut of other activities - sport, films, tv, theatre, life, the universe and everything (that's two Douglas Adams references for you, TSE, don't panic, make that three).
Yesterday, as I arrived just before 9, there was a full-blooded argument going on - was it about capital investment strategy ? No Was it about the football ? No. Was it what biscuits to buy for the office ? Hell, no.
It was the EU Referendum.
Let me explain, there are 10 of us and it was the weekly full team meeting so we are all there. 6 men and 4 women ranging in age from 25 (our "young turk" graduate) to the three of us in the "old guard", me, an older lady and an older man.
We employ an Ulsterman (probably under some quota I don't know) who was passionately supporting REMAIN and berating one of my colleagues who was for LEAVE.
I managed to keep out of the discussion for the most part but eventually admitted I was LEAVE. The split in our Guildford office was 5 for LEAVE, 4 for REMAIN and 1 who was going to watch the debate and make up her mind.
On this crude anecdotal unscientific measurement, this referendum has engaged far more people than I (or possibly David Cameron) had ever imagined. Even Mrs Stodge and I have talked about it and we normally end up talking about her mother, my father and whether we need a new car (she wants a Ford Prefect but I keep telling her there's no such car).
In a belated response to David Herdson's article yesterday, there was a third option available to Cameron. Tell the other EU leaders that what they were offering in February was unacceptable, and resume negotiations at a later stage. That's what Lynton Crosby advised, and I wonder why Cameron didn't take that advice.
I agree to an extent, although that would only ever have been a kick the can down the road option. Ultimately - and by this time next year - he'd have still have had to picked one side or the other.
That said, I agree with those who say that the whole thing's been rushed. I do think that proper reform might have been possible given a slightly longer timescale. However, it'd have been a tight balance; it'd have needed things to have become worse (to prompt the EU and other states into action), before then requiring a saleable deal and the prospects of events improving in a way in which the EU takes some credit. That's a lot to ask in a short time.
That said, both Germany and France face elections next year. Euroscepticism is rising in both and Hollande in particular is in deep doo-doo. It would benefit them to seek to be seen to be addressing the problem. Admittedly, one of the two biggest issues currently facing the EU states - the migrant crisis - wasn't an act of the Union at all but of one of its states and the other, the Greek debt situation, can't be solved quickly without someone losing out big style (almost certainly the creditors). Even so, it would have provided a window of opportunity. I'd guess that the judgement is that that opportunity wasn't worth the risk of 'events'.
I don't think any more substantial reform could have been agreed in time for a referendum by the end of 2017 (possibly committing to that date was a mistake?)
That being so, I think Cameron was well advised to try to get it done quickly. He may very well lose but I think he'd be in a worse, not better condition, if we were doing this a year later.
Interesting - I think the opposite, but with a caveat. At the time the referendum was called, it looked like time was of the essence because of the migrant crisis.
Now the lid is on that, I'm not sure 2017 would have been a worse time to have a vote.
I almost expected him to wrap This will be our Independence Day in the Rule of Three. In the end, it gave the BBC the Crescendo Finale the BBC didn’t want.
Khan not so good. Goes to show, block votes do not facilitate meritocracy.
In a belated response to David Herdson's article yesterday, there was a third option available to Cameron. Tell the other EU leaders that what they were offering in February was unacceptable, and resume negotiations at a later stage. That's what Lynton Crosby advised, and I wonder why Cameron didn't take that advice.
I agree to an extent, although that would only ever have been a kick the can down the road option. Ultimately - and by this time next year - he'd have still have had to picked one side or the other.
That said, I agree with those who say that the whole thing's been rushed. I do think that proper reform might have been possible given a slightly longer timescale. However, it'd have been a tight balance; it'd have needed things to have become worse (to prompt the EU and other states into action), before then requiring a saleable deal and the prospects of events improving in a way in which the EU takes some credit. That's a lot to ask in a short time.
That said, both Germany and France face elections next year. Euroscepticism is rising in both and Hollande in particular is in deep doo-doo. It would benefit them to seek to be seen to be addressing the problem. Admittedly, one of the two biggest issues currently facing the EU states - the migrant crisis - wasn't an act of the Union at all but of one of its states and the other, the Greek debt situation, can't be solved quickly without someone losing out big style (almost certainly the creditors). Even so, it would have provided a window of opportunity. I'd guess that the judgement is that that opportunity wasn't worth the risk of 'events'.
I don't think any more substantial reform could have been agreed in time for a referendum by the end of 2017 (possibly committing to that date was a mistake?)
That being so, I think Cameron was well advised to try to get it done quickly. He may very well lose but I think he'd be in a worse, not better condition, if we were doing this a year later.
Depends on what the will was. If Britain, France and Germany were strongly behind it - and the governments of all three now have electoral reasons to want it - it could happen. But it'd be a big call and at the minimum use up another year of the parliament. It'd be tough to get much done afterwards in that situation even with a Remain, never mind a Leave.
They are driven even more by social class which is good news for Remain as the middle-class vote
Nothing is simple about this is it?
No it is a question of who votes more, the middle-class or the old or who votes less, the young or the working class and unemployed
Remain are hoping that working class people in safe Labour seats with normally low turnouts who dont normally vote as their seat is a foregone conclusion are too thick and lazy to work out that in a referendum this dosent apply.
Having heard reports of council estates festooned with so many st george flags and brexit posters that they look like the DUPs North Belfast heartland on July 12th , I doubt it is much of a straw to clutch.
I can't help thinking that rather than being a throwback, the politics of Northern Ireland are the future in the rest of the country, hopefully without the violence. People voting on the basis of identity and values, rather than economic interests.
People only vote on economic interests when they share identity and values.
This is why multiculturalism is a disaster.
So we all agree that a lot of Leave voters are voting Leave against their economic interests. The big issue is whether they realise this and accept that what the Leave campaign is saying is basically untrue. I have my doubts. We'll soon find out, though.
I think many are ignoring the economic stuff entirely and will be in for a nasty shock. If it is bigger than expected, so will I.
In a belated response to David Herdson's article yesterday, there was a third option available to Cameron. Tell the other EU leaders that what they were offering in February was unacceptable, and resume negotiations at a later stage. That's what Lynton Crosby advised, and I wonder why Cameron didn't take that advice.
That said, both Germany and France face elections next year. Euroscepticism is rising in both and Hollande in particular is in deep doo-doo.
The Times mentioned that Mr Hollande is facing a primary challenge before the presidential election.
Should we allow ZHC - sure. Should we encourage more full time jobs. Sure. Are ZHC often a gateway to full time jobs - whether at the same employer or a new one. Sure.
No brainer for me.
I would allow ZHCs. But it is not a job for official purposes - zero hours is zero pay. So on ZHC your declared hours and salary are both zero. You can't get a loan or a mortgage on zero fixed income...
Of course it is a job. If labour is expended for salary, it is a job. Just because it has a degree of variation and flexibility does not make it an unjob or a nonjob.
Many people on very high salaries can't get a loan or a mortgage for various other reasons.
Too close to call is still my feeling. I just hope that the undecideds swing it for remain.
Very nervous...
It's not the undecideds you have to worry about, it's young people - will they get off their backsides and vote. They'll get no sympathy from me if they complain about facing the consequences of the votes of older people if their turnout is much lower.
You could equally say the same about some of the working classes and young people have registered to vote at a higher rate for the referendum, are all the working class Leavers on the register?
A possibility. I think that's where anecdote makes leave confident - Young people, visible ones, always say they'll vote and don't. Working class, many never pretend they're going to, but this time say they will. It will be less than say they will, but I think it more likely their turn out will be higher than young people,
The register is key though, a young person registered is still more likely to vote than an unregistered passionate Leaver
It's interesting to talk about possible culture wars. If you go back ten years the thinking seemed to be that we didn't have the culture wars here because there was less division amongst the electorate - abortion etc.
Could it be our future? Well first ask why economic issues aren't dominating the debate and uniting people as they once did. Perhaps because politicians aren't able to provide a convincing idea of how it should work. Socialism hasn't really be re-born and international capitalism is in the doghouse.
I almost expected him to wrap This will be our Independence Day in the Rule of Three. In the end, it gave the BBC the Crescendo Finale the BBC didn’t want.
Khan not so good. Goes to show, block votes do not facilitate meritocracy.
The Remain team's strategy appeared to be to talk over Team Leave, and attempt to prevent any discussion of the EU. Disappointing.
Question...if Britain's membership of the EU has created an economy where there are more UK citizens in work than in the country's history...why is that bad?
If you are being subsidized to work (as shown by the amount still paid in working tax credit and housing benefit to those in work) are you actually working?
Surely if people were actually earning what their actually received (rather than receiving some from government subsidizes) we wouldn't still have the structural deficit that Osbourne has so blatently failed to fixed.
Which is why the higher minimum wage should help and then subsidies can gradually decline
Yep the higher minimum wage would work - if
1) jobs are not removed because of it (looking at a currently being refurbished Morrisons it now has 4 full shop self service tills so that's at least 3 less members of staff)... Likewise refurbished McDonalds will require less staff as tills become self service... 2) It wasn't going to encourage more immigrants to come here. We come back to the 6 month old Aldi next to a council estate in County Durham. 500 unemployed in the council estate and 16 Eastern European workers in the Aldi.
I know why Osbourne did it (the other options are all politically unpalatable) unfortunately it doesn't work.
There is no perfect solution but better to pay workers more than subsidise them
Thank you to Tissue Price for a most interesting piece. I could easily support a European Union which actively helped the poorest regions and had been an instrumental factor in rebuilding the economies of first southern and then eastern Europe.
That EU, funded of course by the wealthier European countries (Britain and the then West Germany) could have instigated long term capital infrastructure projects, supported local small businesses and advised local Governments on how to stimulate pro-market pro-business economies.
Unfortunately, we didn't get that EU. Instead, we fell into the age old trap of letting the people go to the money - if they clean offices in Dortmund or serve coffee in Dalston they can send the money home and enrich their own countries.
Nice idea but with freedom of movement, who needs it ? One third of Lithuania has gone and unlike the Golgafrinchans (that's a Hitchhiker's reference for TSE's benefit), they didn't choose the telephone sanitizers or the political website editors - it was anyone and everyone so the criminals and the feckless mixed with the hard working and the law abiding.
Having recently been in Greece, I've seen the ravages of the Euro and the failure of both successive Greek Governments and the European Union. I don't agree the inevitability is political and economic union - rich countries helping poorer countries doesn't require currency harmonisation, it requires political will and a change in our economic culture.
On your last point, I am not sure you are right, for, other than in very exceptional circumstances (Marshall Plan), such transfers are only politically acceptable if they are covert, not overt. Look at the fuss over the Barnett formula, which is semi-covert. Every now and again some analysis surfaces demonstrating that Tax income from London is effectively cross-subsidising the rest of the country, and of course Scotland argues that during the oil years its share of North Sea oil was used to subsidise England. But because these are all lost in a complicated wash, they don't get political traction.
What is multiculturalism? Generally used to refer to "British" culture vs "other" culture.
What is British culture? Scottish English Welsh and Irish rarely agree.
What is English culture? Northern England has little in common with somewhere like Surrey - football fans and Opera lovers are culturally a long way apart.
What is Northern culture? I'm a Lancastrian in exile in Yorkshire. My small border town looks down its nose at the town in a different ancient county across the river and vice versa.
We are a mongrel nation the result of multiple waves of migration and invasion. Our country is named after a Germanic tribe. Our great English Kings only spoke French and spent almost all their time there. Our patron saint never got within a thousand miles of here. Our language muddles up Norse French Latin and Celt.
Comments
We were invaded in the early 13th century by the French, when we suffered the misrule of King John.
Belief the eu would not bend on the biggest things no matter what
Concern about Greek or migrant crises occuring and making it harder to win even with a better deal
Clashes with electoral cycles of other eu leaders
If a victory is tainted due to suspicion of why an unknown number of people voted the way they did, why everyone voted the way they did becomes relevant.
Most of the leading lights pushing for Brexit are firmly on the side of internationalism, and the free movement of people and capital, and believe that EU membership renders us insufficiently free to pursue those goals further and faster. They are exploiting resentment about globalisation to further their own agendas and their own careers.
opinion polls include postal votes and votes to be cast on polling day .Currently polls show neck and neck position.But if you exclude postal voters then the shares for polling day voters assuming a 70%. Turnout are 52:48.
What this analysis suggests is that leave will have a lead from postal votes and that on polling day itself Remain will have to poll at leat 53% to have a chance of victory.
She was swinging for the fences - they didn't all work, but she was the most talented one up there.
Not long to go now !
22 hrs ·
It's been a bit of a chore to check facebook in the last few days. Full of people shoving their ideology down your throat. It's up to you to look at available information yourself and make a choice. Whatever you think, makes no odds to me. Doesn't make you a better or worse person. As for me, I'll be voting leave.
(His sister I think) Granddad had change of heart, pleased to hear you won't think any less of him
Like · Reply · 1 · 20 hrs
(His sister I think)
He just said he is considering his position because of death of jo cox
The logical answer is Hilton is a fantasist (which his other pronouncements also suggest)
This is why multiculturalism is a disaster.
1) jobs are not removed because of it (looking at a currently being refurbished Morrisons it now has 4 full shop self service tills so that's at least 3 less members of staff)... Likewise refurbished McDonalds will require less staff as tills become self service...
2) It wasn't going to encourage more immigrants to come here. We come back to the 6 month old Aldi next to a council estate in County Durham. 500 unemployed in the council estate and 16 Eastern European workers in the Aldi.
I know why Osbourne did it (the other options are all politically unpalatable) unfortunately it doesn't work.
Just 24 hours to go to "Independence Day"!
If we pull this off maybe we'll can get a new bank holiday?
These are things I think we have learnt about politics:
* More people are sick of the EU in UK than the establishment ever thought
* Brexit people have been agitating for decades, but appear to have no plan for what happens.
* We have become so untangled in EU single market, that leaving will be an expensive and very difficult exercise.
* Labour has a huge issue over where it goes next with respect to immigration.
* Cultural issues are taking on a salience that we've not seen in this country before (see previous point). US elections have been dominated by 'cultural wars' for a while now - will we go down that road?
* The Tory part is split but not down the middle.
Being retweeted by Mensch is an automatic three-match ban and €100,000 fine. The ref's hands are tied in such circumstances. UEFA rules.
This referendum campaign isn't necessarily going that well for me.
So your assumptions are rubbish, your analysis is rubbish and you conclusion is rubbish. Other than that, great post.
Thought not.
There will be an interim period of disruption. This will result in slightly slower growth but it will be positive.
This is quite different from the Armageddon scenarios painted by Remain which in my view completely lack credibility.
For instance, you heard Cameron on R4 this morning. Presumably you also heard the German Cbi equivalent head sayi g it would be stupid for the EU to impose trade barriers post Brexit
1. Yes. The EU is dying anyway. It must become a country or split up. The UK will never willingly join the superstate - so either some sort of formal 'two speed EU' is coming or we're gone in a few years' time anyway.
2. The result is going to be tight. A narrow Leave win will create a conclusion. We'll leave (under perhaps not the terms voters hoped), but we're gone never to return. A very narrow Remain vote merely starts the clock ticking for the next instalment of a neverendum (and internal political chaos within the UK). A very narrow Remain settles nothing.
20 years on with a family and commitments a zero hours contract would be a nightmare. No security. No guaranteed income.
Ask people on zero hours if they'd like guaranteed hours. Unlike the result of this referendum it wouldn't be close...
That said, I agree with those who say that the whole thing's been rushed. I do think that proper reform might have been possible given a slightly longer timescale. However, it'd have been a tight balance; it'd have needed things to have become worse (to prompt the EU and other states into action), before then requiring a saleable deal and the prospects of events improving in a way in which the EU takes some credit. That's a lot to ask in a short time.
That said, both Germany and France face elections next year. Euroscepticism is rising in both and Hollande in particular is in deep doo-doo. It would benefit them to seek to be seen to be addressing the problem. Admittedly, one of the two biggest issues currently facing the EU states - the migrant crisis - wasn't an act of the Union at all but of one of its states and the other, the Greek debt situation, can't be solved quickly without someone losing out big style (almost certainly the creditors). Even so, it would have provided a window of opportunity. I'd guess that the judgement is that that opportunity wasn't worth the risk of 'events'.
Thank you to Tissue Price for a most interesting piece. I could easily support a European Union which actively helped the poorest regions and had been an instrumental factor in rebuilding the economies of first southern and then eastern Europe.
That EU, funded of course by the wealthier European countries (Britain and the then West Germany) could have instigated long term capital infrastructure projects, supported local small businesses and advised local Governments on how to stimulate pro-market pro-business economies.
Unfortunately, we didn't get that EU. Instead, we fell into the age old trap of letting the people go to the money - if they clean offices in Dortmund or serve coffee in Dalston they can send the money home and enrich their own countries.
Nice idea but with freedom of movement, who needs it ? One third of Lithuania has gone and unlike the Golgafrinchans (that's a Hitchhiker's reference for TSE's benefit), they didn't choose the telephone sanitizers or the political website editors - it was anyone and everyone so the criminals and the feckless mixed with the hard working and the law abiding.
Having recently been in Greece, I've seen the ravages of the Euro and the failure of both successive Greek Governments and the European Union. I don't agree the inevitability is political and economic union - rich countries helping poorer countries doesn't require currency harmonisation, it requires political will and a change in our economic culture.
3) It suppresses other wages. To pay for a minimum wage, employers must find savings elsewhere, so either cut other salaries or cut jobs.
It is Economics 101.
(I'm surprised Osborne doesnt know - or he probably does)
The division that SeanF identifies is basically a re-framing of the age old capital vs. labour split, only now some Tories are realising that they are on the side of labour.
Having spent the entire campaign implying that the key to voting Leave is to reducing immigration, that seemed to me entirely telling, and the Remain speakers should have dropped whatever they were planning to say in order to jump all over it.
How about the distortions in wealth and income distribution?
All those arguments are predicated on the notion that living standards are already falling for a large number of people.
Similarly, have Remain abolished boom and bust? They do seem to be implying that things will never change and that there will never be a recession or downturn.
Should we allow ZHC - sure. Should we encourage more full time jobs. Sure. Are ZHC often a gateway to full time jobs - whether at the same employer or a new one. Sure.
No brainer for me.
Andrea 'take back control' has revealed her limitations. Gisela is a strong performer who has no answers to the question of limiting immigration apart from 'take back control.'
The Remainers were stronger especially Ruth, her answers were both logical and passionate and she may have influenced some undecided voters.
The price cannot be too high. I have had to assess whether being stuck in an organisation which we dont support the ultimate aims of and which holds our concerns in absolute contempt, is a price worth paying to avoid short to medium term economic shocks. I also have to assess if the level of those shocks is a price worth accepting if we are to leave. How big a crisis is acceptable, particularly since a recession is coming soon anyway?
You may disagree with my current conclusions, but I have thought about it.
The problem is, the eu does not want us in it, not really. They want a uk in it, paying in, helping out, but they dont want the real uk in it. That, to me, seems unquestionable.
They want the dream of a uk to remain in a dream eu. But we have to wake up and be rational and look at them both as they are - that means accepting there is A price to leaving, but also accepting staying in is not consequence free.
It's not easy - the eu is unpalatable, undemocratic and it is, the crucial part, incapable of effective change. Because it has no lasting, genuine acceptance it is needed. But it will hurt at first, and I dislike pain and change.
That being so, I think Cameron was well advised to try to get it done quickly. He may very well lose but I think he'd be in a worse, not better condition, if we were doing this a year later.
We never and I mean never talk politics in my office. Occasionally, we talk about work but we cover the gamut of other activities - sport, films, tv, theatre, life, the universe and everything (that's two Douglas Adams references for you, TSE, don't panic, make that three).
Yesterday, as I arrived just before 9, there was a full-blooded argument going on - was it about capital investment strategy ? No Was it about the football ? No. Was it what biscuits to buy for the office ? Hell, no.
It was the EU Referendum.
Let me explain, there are 10 of us and it was the weekly full team meeting so we are all there. 6 men and 4 women ranging in age from 25 (our "young turk" graduate) to the three of us in the "old guard", me, an older lady and an older man.
We employ an Ulsterman (probably under some quota I don't know) who was passionately supporting REMAIN and berating one of my colleagues who was for LEAVE.
I managed to keep out of the discussion for the most part but eventually admitted I was LEAVE. The split in our Guildford office was 5 for LEAVE, 4 for REMAIN and 1 who was going to watch the debate and make up her mind.
On this crude anecdotal unscientific measurement, this referendum has engaged far more people than I (or possibly David Cameron) had ever imagined. Even Mrs Stodge and I have talked about it and we normally end up talking about her mother, my father and whether we need a new car (she wants a Ford Prefect but I keep telling her there's no such car).
Now the lid is on that, I'm not sure 2017 would have been a worse time to have a vote.
I almost expected him to wrap This will be our Independence Day in the Rule of Three. In the end, it gave the BBC the Crescendo Finale the BBC didn’t want.
Khan not so good. Goes to show, block votes do not facilitate meritocracy.
Many people on very high salaries can't get a loan or a mortgage for various other reasons.
Could it be our future? Well first ask why economic issues aren't dominating the debate and uniting people as they once did. Perhaps because politicians aren't able to provide a convincing idea of how it should work. Socialism hasn't really be re-born and international capitalism is in the doghouse.
What is British culture? Scottish English Welsh and Irish rarely agree.
What is English culture? Northern England has little in common with somewhere like Surrey - football fans and Opera lovers are culturally a long way apart.
What is Northern culture? I'm a Lancastrian in exile in Yorkshire. My small border town looks down its nose at the town in a different ancient county across the river and vice versa.
We are a mongrel nation the result of multiple waves of migration and invasion. Our country is named after a Germanic tribe. Our great English Kings only spoke French and spent almost all their time there. Our patron saint never got within a thousand miles of here. Our language muddles up Norse French Latin and Celt.
What is multiculturalism? Its Britain.