Even Mrs Stodge and I have talked about it and we normally end up talking about her mother, my father and whether we need a new car (she wants a Ford Prefect but I keep telling her there's no such car).
I passed a very pretty yellow car yesterday. Buy a pretty yellow car!
For Brexiteers, this is it. The chance to throw off the shackles of serfdom. No longer subjugated by the bureaucratic elite. With Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson as your figurehead (and Nigel Farage at the helm) what could possibly go wrong?
And for Remainers, the open, tolerant, outward looking, successful, Internationalist country we grew up in may be coming to an end, but mourn not its passing and celebrate that we had it at all. Kill the fatted calf, dance and be merry.
I am thinking of appointing myself director of morale (until the first results are posted)...
The last bastion of non-political activity fell yesterday morning.
We never and I mean never talk politics in my office. Occasionally, we talk about work but we cover the gamut of other activities - sport, films, tv, theatre, life, the universe and everything (that's two Douglas Adams references for you, TSE, don't panic, make that three).
Yesterday, as I arrived just before 9, there was a full-blooded argument going on - was it about capital investment strategy ? No Was it about the football ? No. Was it what biscuits to buy for the office ? Hell, no.
It was the EU Referendum.
Let me explain, there are 10 of us and it was the weekly full team meeting so we are all there. 6 men and 4 women ranging in age from 25 (our "young turk" graduate) to the three of us in the "old guard", me, an older lady and an older man.
We employ an Ulsterman (probably under some quota I don't know) who was passionately supporting REMAIN and berating one of my colleagues who was for LEAVE.
I managed to keep out of the discussion for the most part but eventually admitted I was LEAVE. The split in our Guildford office was 5 for LEAVE, 4 for REMAIN and 1 who was going to watch the debate and make up her mind.
On this crude anecdotal unscientific measurement, this referendum has engaged far more people than I (or possibly David Cameron) had ever imagined. Even Mrs Stodge and I have talked about it and we normally end up talking about her mother, my father and whether we need a new car (she wants a Ford Prefect but I keep telling her there's no such car).
Interesting header - tho I suspect it under estimates the EU's capacity for muddle & compromise....
Yep, neither hopes nor fears are really justified, as a glance at the last 40 years of our membership will confirm.
IME the first rule of any prediction of doom/decay/collapse is that, even when they are right, the timescale turns out to be MUCH longer than anyone expects.
So we all agree that a lot of Leave voters are voting Leave against their economic interests...
No we dont agree on that at all. Your argument was probably used by Soviets in 1990;
The EU has not been brilliant for British workers. Not only has the EU caused job stagnation & job insecurity, it has put pressure on housing, services, social cohesion, law & order.
The house is collapsing, time to get out.
The ship is sinking, time to board abandon ship.
The fish is rotten, time to remove it from the fridge.
The last bastion of non-political activity fell yesterday morning.
We never and I mean never talk politics in my office. Occasionally, we talk about work but we cover the gamut of other activities - sport, films, tv, theatre, life, the universe and everything (that's two Douglas Adams references for you, TSE, don't panic, make that three).
Yesterday, as I arrived just before 9, there was a full-blooded argument going on - was it about capital investment strategy ? No Was it about the football ? No. Was it what biscuits to buy for the office ? Hell, no.
It was the EU Referendum.
Let me explain, there are 10 of us and it was the weekly full team meeting so we are all there. 6 men and 4 women ranging in age from 25 (our "young turk" graduate) to the three of us in the "old guard", me, an older lady and an older man.
We employ an Ulsterman (probably under some quota I don't know) who was passionately supporting REMAIN and berating one of my colleagues who was for LEAVE.
I managed to keep out of the discussion for the most part but eventually admitted I was LEAVE. The split in our Guildford office was 5 for LEAVE, 4 for REMAIN and 1 who was going to watch the debate and make up her mind.
On this crude anecdotal unscientific measurement, this referendum has engaged far more people than I (or possibly David Cameron) had ever imagined. Even Mrs Stodge and I have talked about it and we normally end up talking about her mother, my father and whether we need a new car (she wants a Ford Prefect but I keep telling her there's no such car).
For Brexiteers, this is it. The chance to throw off the shackles of serfdom. No longer subjugated by the bureaucratic elite. With Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson as your figurehead (and Nigel Farage at the helm) what could possibly go wrong?
And for Remainers, the open, tolerant, outward looking, successful, Internationalist country we grew up in may be coming to an end, but mourn not its passing and celebrate that we had it at all. Kill the fatted calf, dance and be merry.
I am thinking of appointing myself director of morale (until the first results are posted)...
My friend - whatever happens you have had a good campaign. You have revealed something of your true self, of your soul. I am proud to be standing shoulder to shoulder with you on this.
And as a p.s. to my earlier post, a big chunk of the postal voters will be ex-pats, normally a group with very low turnout, but not this time! Plus Gibraltar. Assume these are overwhelmingly remain. None covered by opinion polling. Northern Ireland also excluded from polling, but assumed to lean to remain. So surely it is actually Leave that needs to be ahead in the polls by a margin probably greater than 1% in order to have a chance of winning?
And as a p.s. to my earlier post, a big chunk of the postal voters will be ex-pats, normally a group with very low turnout, but not this time! Plus Gibraltar. Assume these are overwhelmingly remain. None covered by opinion polling. Northern Ireland also excluded from polling, but assumed to lean to remain. So surely it is actually Leave that needs to be ahead in the polls by a margin probably greater than 1% in order to have a chance of winning?
Oh dear.
Leave probably does need to be ahead by about 1%+ in GB to offset expats, Gibraltar and NI (others have done calculations).
However, that does not mean Leave needs to be ahead in the polls "in order to have a chance."
The polls may be wrong, they may be right. We don't know. Anyone who thinks they are accurate to within 1% is blind to their method and their track record.
It is estimated that 27% of registered voters are postal.There are good reasons to believe that Leave will have a lead on postal votes, postal votes are returned quickly, usually within two weeks of being sent out. The second factor is demographics. Postal voters tend to be older and surveys show that this group are strong supporters of brevity and have he highest certainty to vote.
27% of registered voters are not postal voters, it is nearer 17%. Postal voters are typically either elderly, from ethnic minorities, or students. Only the first of these breaks for leave.
I would have thought that there would have been a larger than usual ex-pat population voting this time and the majority of those would be for Remain. I can confirm my adherence to some of the assumptions above. I'm retired and my postal vote was returned within two days of receipt, however it wasn't for Leave.
And as a p.s. to my earlier post, a big chunk of the postal voters will be ex-pats, normally a group with very low turnout, but not this time! Plus Gibraltar. Assume these are overwhelmingly remain. None covered by opinion polling. Northern Ireland also excluded from polling, but assumed to lean to remain. So surely it is actually Leave that needs to be ahead in the polls by a margin probably greater than 1% in order to have a chance of winning?
someone told me the armed forces are 90% for leave though. Have you built that in?
They are driven even more by social class which is good news for Remain as the middle-class vote
Nothing is simple about this is it?
No it is a question of who votes more, the middle-class or the old or who votes less, the young or the working class and unemployed
Remain are hoping that working class people in safe Labour seats with normally low turnouts who dont normally vote as their seat is a foregone conclusion are too thick and lazy to work out that in a referendum this dosent apply.
Having heard reports of council estates festooned with so many st george flags and brexit posters that they look like the DUPs North Belfast heartland on July 12th , I doubt it is much of a straw to clutch.
I can't help thinking that rather than being a throwback, the politics of Northern Ireland are the future in the rest of the country, hopefully without the violence. People voting on the basis of identity and values, rather than economic interests.
A terrifying prospect. Yet a not necessarily incorrect forecast.
It's not happening any time soon. Wake me up when we have MPs from the Muslim Brotherhood in parliament.
The division that SeanF identifies is basically a re-framing of the age old capital vs. labour split, only now some Tories are realising that they are on the side of labour.
And some Labourites on the side of capital....?
The late convergence of right wingers with labour as well as becoming avid supporters of out of EU immigration is one of the more bizarre features of this campaign. Oh, yes....the 350m top up of the NHS.
And as a p.s. to my earlier post, a big chunk of the postal voters will be ex-pats, normally a group with very low turnout, but not this time! Plus Gibraltar. Assume these are overwhelmingly remain. None covered by opinion polling. Northern Ireland also excluded from polling, but assumed to lean to remain. So surely it is actually Leave that needs to be ahead in the polls by a margin probably greater than 1% in order to have a chance of winning?
And as a p.s. to my earlier post, a big chunk of the postal voters will be ex-pats, normally a group with very low turnout, but not this time! Plus Gibraltar. Assume these are overwhelmingly remain. None covered by opinion polling. Northern Ireland also excluded from polling, but assumed to lean to remain. So surely it is actually Leave that needs to be ahead in the polls by a margin probably greater than 1% in order to have a chance of winning?
Oh dear.
Leave probably does need to be ahead by about 1%+ in GB to offset expats, Gibraltar and NI (others have done calculations).
However, that does not mean Leave needs to be ahead in the polls "in order to have a chance."
The polls may be wrong, they may be right. We don't know. Anyone who thinks they are accurate to within 1% is blind to their method and their track record.
Anyone who thinks they have an accurate idea of what the result will be is deluded...
For Brexiteers, this is it. The chance to throw off the shackles of serfdom. No longer subjugated by the bureaucratic elite. With Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson as your figurehead (and Nigel Farage at the helm) what could possibly go wrong?
And for Remainers, the open, tolerant, outward looking, successful, Internationalist country we grew up in may be coming to an end, but mourn not its passing and celebrate that we had it at all. Kill the fatted calf, dance and be merry.
I am thinking of appointing myself director of morale (until the first results are posted)...
My friend - whatever happens you have had a good campaign. You have revealed something of your true self, of your soul. I am proud to be standing shoulder to shoulder with you on this.
And so have you. If we do vote to Leave, I shall have some immense fun in the early hours of Friday.
The thread header has been written headlined in anticipation for a Leave victory
'de Gaulle was right, the UK* is insular and maritime'
*He was talking of England, but the England and the UK are the same thing
If we pull this off maybe we'll can get a new bank holiday?
It's all jolly exciting. I'm holding down my emotions - getting beaten would awful, but we've made it very very close. If we win - I'll be dancing in my underwear
That revelation could just be the magic bullet that Remain are looking for....
No it is a question of who votes more, the middle-class or the old or who votes less, the young or the working class and unemployed
Yes. The NatCen survey did compare the effects of different turnout models. (Although the absolute Remain/Leave figures have probably changed since the date of the survey, we can hope the estimates of relative shifts owing to differential turnout will remain valid.)
So it seems that demographic factors can be expected to favour Remain somewhat - in other words, the class factor wins out over the age factor. And Leave supporters are more likely to state that they will vote than Remain supporters.
Viewed another way, if the turnout in different demographic groups were the same as in 2015, a neck-and-neck poll unweighted for turnout would translate to a 1.9% Remain lead, and a neck-and-neck poll based on stated likelihood to vote would translate to a 3.4% Remain lead.
On the other hand, it may be that the referendum is so different from a parliamentary election that stated likelihood to vote is a better guide, in which case the polls can be taken at face value (or, if unweighted for turnout, need to be adjusted slightly in favour of Leave).
In any case, the shifts produced by the turnout models don't seem particularly large compared with the differences between individual polls.
Britain was always multicultural. The benefit of our Germano-Latin & maritime history and of course, Empire.
The Romans too were influenced by their provinces and ultimately blended Roman & Judaism in the Catholic Church, where the Pontiff still wears white.
Leftist Multiculturalism however, where foreign cultures are considered equal or superior to British culture, is little more than 'Positive Colonialism'
And as a p.s. to my earlier post, a big chunk of the postal voters will be ex-pats, normally a group with very low turnout, but not this time! Plus Gibraltar. Assume these are overwhelmingly remain. None covered by opinion polling. Northern Ireland also excluded from polling, but assumed to lean to remain. So surely it is actually Leave that needs to be ahead in the polls by a margin probably greater than 1% in order to have a chance of winning?
someone told me the armed forces are 90% for leave though. Have you built that in?
And as a p.s. to my earlier post, a big chunk of the postal voters will be ex-pats, normally a group with very low turnout, but not this time! Plus Gibraltar. Assume these are overwhelmingly remain. None covered by opinion polling. Northern Ireland also excluded from polling, but assumed to lean to remain. So surely it is actually Leave that needs to be ahead in the polls by a margin probably greater than 1% in order to have a chance of winning?
someone told me the armed forces are 90% for leave though. Have you built that in?
If they are in places like oz that is good news for leave
And as a p.s. to my earlier post, a big chunk of the postal voters will be ex-pats, normally a group with very low turnout, but not this time! Plus Gibraltar. Assume these are overwhelmingly remain. None covered by opinion polling. Northern Ireland also excluded from polling, but assumed to lean to remain. So surely it is actually Leave that needs to be ahead in the polls by a margin probably greater than 1% in order to have a chance of winning?
And as a p.s. to my earlier post, a big chunk of the postal voters will be ex-pats, normally a group with very low turnout, but not this time! Plus Gibraltar. Assume these are overwhelmingly remain. None covered by opinion polling. Northern Ireland also excluded from polling, but assumed to lean to remain. So surely it is actually Leave that needs to be ahead in the polls by a margin probably greater than 1% in order to have a chance of winning?
Oh dear.
Leave probably does need to be ahead by about 1%+ in GB to offset expats, Gibraltar and NI (others have done calculations).
However, that does not mean Leave needs to be ahead in the polls "in order to have a chance."
The polls may be wrong, they may be right. We don't know. Anyone who thinks they are accurate to within 1% is blind to their method and their track record.
Fair point about the polls. Otherwise I think my argument stands: the OP was arguing that because of all the leave postal votes, remain needs a big lead in order to stand a chance; the truth is that leave needs a small lead (amongst the sub-set of the electorate being polled).
For Brexiteers, this is it. The chance to throw off the shackles of serfdom. No longer subjugated by the bureaucratic elite. With Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson as your figurehead (and Nigel Farage at the helm) what could possibly go wrong?
And for Remainers, the open, tolerant, outward looking, successful, Internationalist country we grew up in may be coming to an end, but mourn not its passing and celebrate that we had it at all. Kill the fatted calf, dance and be merry.
I am thinking of appointing myself director of morale (until the first results are posted)...
It is estimated that 27% of registered voters are postal.There are good reasons to believe that Leave will have a lead on postal votes.postal votes are returned quickly,usually within two weeks of being sent out.This period broadly coincides with leaves best opinion poll ratings.The second factor is demographics.postal voters tend to be older and surveys show that this group are strong supporters of brevity and have he highest certainty to vote.Tp put some figures on it given an 80% turnout and a 60:40 split in their favour Leave would get 6 million postal votes and Remain 4.So leave goes into polling day with a 2 million lead in votes. opinion polls include postal votes and votes to be cast on polling day .Currently polls show neck and neck position.But if you exclude postal voters then the shares for polling day voters assuming a 70%. Turnout are 52:48. What this analysis suggests is that leave will have a lead from postal votes and that on polling day itself Remain will have to poll at leat 53% to have a chance of victory.
There is so much hooky maths in this post that it is hard to know where to start. 27% of registered voters are not postal voters, it is nearer 17%. Postal voters are typically either elderly, from ethnic minorities, or students. Only the first of these breaks for leave. Not all postal votes come back early - there will be a batch that comes back at the last minute and it is increasingly common for people to take them into the polling station on the day. Do we believe the opinion polls in the first place? If we don't, then the whole analysis is rubbish. If we do, then consider that for every leave vote you have counted as an "already voted" person there is one fewer leave voter left in the rest of the population. Hence the more leave voters you are going to assume have voted already, the more biased towards remain is the rest of the population....but of course the polls include everybody, voted or not.
So your assumptions are rubbish, your analysis is rubbish and you conclusion is rubbish. Other than that, great post.
Are people who have used their postal vote less likely to participate in an opinion poll? I certainly wouldn't bother.
If Brexit will severely damaged the economy in the short term won't that reduce immigration, as there will be fewer vacancies?
Remains scare stories don't stack up - like this one - as they all counteract against each other
Deja vu all over again, Charles.
If we Leave the EU, the country will enter into an unprecedented period of turmoil which will affect economic growth.
It's not difficult stuff.
I know it's not difficult which is why I font understand why you find it so hard.
There will be an interim period of disruption. This will result in slightly slower growth but it will be positive.
This is quite different from the Armageddon scenarios painted by Remain which in my view completely lack credibility.
For instance, you heard Cameron on R4 this morning. Presumably you also heard the German Cbi equivalent head sayi g it would be stupid for the EU to impose trade barriers post Brexit
"interim period of disruption". Very funny.
And yes, Germany will still sell us BMWs. But that really is not even the half, the twentieth of it.
That you can't see the huge chaos (not armageddon) that Leaving the EU would cause really means you are not getting down and dirty in the detail. And why should you? You'll be fine. I'm not even sure you'll notice it.
Too close to call is still my feeling. I just hope that the undecideds swing it for remain.
Very nervous...
It's not the undecideds you have to worry about, it's young people - will they get off their backsides and vote. They'll get no sympathy from me if they complain about facing the consequences of the votes of older people if their turnout is much lower.
You could equally say the same about some of the working classes and young people have registered to vote at a higher rate for the referendum, are all the working class Leavers on the register?
A possibility. I think that's where anecdote makes leave confident - Young people, visible ones, always say they'll vote and don't. Working class, many never pretend they're going to, but this time say they will. It will be less than say they will, but I think it more likely their turn out will be higher than young people,
The register is key though, a young person registered is still more likely to vote than an unregistered passionate Leaver
I think turnout amongst both will be up, but not by masses. The fact that the working classes are looking like voting leave will bring out the middle classes very strongly for remain. A PAYE type with a decent job, family and mortgage is not going to take the risk. Old people will largely vote leave but see some status quo swingback.
I don't think young people or working class people will decide this vote. The key demographic is women. They will swing back to remain just like in the Sindyref.
If Brexit will severely damaged the economy in the short term won't that reduce immigration, as there will be fewer vacancies?
Remains scare stories don't stack up - like this one - as they all counteract against each other
Deja vu all over again, Charles.
If we Leave the EU, the country will enter into an unprecedented period of turmoil which will affect economic growth.
It's not difficult stuff.
I know it's not difficult which is why I font understand why you find it so hard.
There will be an interim period of disruption. This will result in slightly slower growth but it will be positive.
This is quite different from the Armageddon scenarios painted by Remain which in my view completely lack credibility.
For instance, you heard Cameron on R4 this morning. Presumably you also heard the German Cbi equivalent head sayi g it would be stupid for the EU to impose trade barriers post Brexit
"interim period of disruption". Very funny.
And yes, Germany will still sell us BMWs. But that really is not even the half, the twentieth of it.
That you can't see the huge chaos (not armageddon) that Leaving the EU would cause really means you are not getting down and dirty in the detail. And why should you? You'll be fine. I'm not even sure you'll notice it.
Why should there be huge chaos from leaving a "simple trading block" ?
In a belated response to David Herdson's article yesterday, there was a third option available to Cameron. Tell the other EU leaders that what they were offering in February was unacceptable, and resume negotiations at a later stage. That's what Lynton Crosby advised, and I wonder why Cameron didn't take that advice.
I agree to an extent, although that would only ever have been a kick the can down the road option. Ultimately - and by this time next year - he'd have still have had to picked one side or the other.
That said, I agree with those who say that the whole thing's been rushed. I do think that proper reform might have been possible given a slightly longer timescale. However, it'd have been a tight balance; it'd have needed things to have become worse (to prompt the EU and other states into action), before then requiring a saleable deal and the prospects of events improving in a way in which the EU takes some credit. That's a lot to ask in a short time.
That said, both Germany and France face elections next year. Euroscepticism is rising in both and Hollande in particular is in deep doo-doo. It would benefit them to seek to be seen to be addressing the problem. Admittedly, one of the two biggest issues currently facing the EU states - the migrant crisis - wasn't an act of the Union at all but of one of its states and the other, the Greek debt situation, can't be solved quickly without someone losing out big style (almost certainly the creditors). Even so, it would have provided a window of opportunity. I'd guess that the judgement is that that opportunity wasn't worth the risk of 'events'.
I don't think any more substantial reform could have been agreed in time for a referendum by the end of 2017 (possibly committing to that date was a mistake?)
That being so, I think Cameron was well advised to try to get it done quickly. He may very well lose but I think he'd be in a worse, not better condition, if we were doing this a year later.
Depends on what the will was. If Britain, France and Germany were strongly behind it - and the governments of all three now have electoral reasons to want it - it could happen. But it'd be a big call and at the minimum use up another year of the parliament. It'd be tough to get much done afterwards in that situation even with a Remain, never mind a Leave.
You're right, of course, that if there had been a sense of great urgency, a sense of crisis, then a lot could have been accomplished.
A separate question is whether a more extensive renegotiation would have changed the outcome of the referendum, whatever that is going to be. Well, we'll never know.
And as a p.s. to my earlier post, a big chunk of the postal voters will be ex-pats, normally a group with very low turnout, but not this time! Plus Gibraltar. Assume these are overwhelmingly remain. None covered by opinion polling. Northern Ireland also excluded from polling, but assumed to lean to remain. So surely it is actually Leave that needs to be ahead in the polls by a margin probably greater than 1% in order to have a chance of winning?
someone told me the armed forces are 90% for leave though. Have you built that in?
That's an interesting point. Those based abroad (far fewer than in years gone by) aren't being polled, will vote postally and, you're probably right, will go some way to offset the presumed bias towards remain amongst other ex pats. Those based here are being polled, in principle (though I would guess that phone polling may not reach some of them that easily) and are included within the general population voting either by post or in person.
On your last point, I am not sure you are right, for, other than in very exceptional circumstances (Marshall Plan), such transfers are only politically acceptable if they are covert, not overt. Look at the fuss over the Barnett formula, which is semi-covert. Every now and again some analysis surfaces demonstrating that Tax income from London is effectively cross-subsidising the rest of the country, and of course Scotland argues that during the oil years its share of North Sea oil was used to subsidise England. But because these are all lost in a complicated wash, they don't get political traction.
I think the EU, especially in the 70s and early 80s, did function in a mildly altruistic manner. Spain, Portugal and Greece all emerged from longer or shorter periods of dictatorship into democracy and I think the EEC (or EU) played a big part in stabilising those new democracies through CAP and other measures specifically designed to boost the southern rural economies (and from which rural France, Italy and German also benefitted).
2008 stands for me as the failure of a political and economic culture which emerged out of the ruins of Thatcherism. Whether you call it the Third Way or whatever, it was the intellectual response of the "left" to the Thatcher years and for a while it worked superbly.
Unfortunately, it collapsed due to its own internal contradictions and the response of the "right", a muddled austerity, has yet to be fully countered leaving the "right" in command of the political and economic battlefield. Yet this new austerity has now failed and we find ourselves in a vacuum for the first time since the failure of Butskellism.
For Brexiteers, this is it. The chance to throw off the shackles of serfdom. No longer subjugated by the bureaucratic elite. With Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson as your figurehead (and Nigel Farage at the helm) what could possibly go wrong?
And for Remainers, the open, tolerant, outward looking, successful, Internationalist country we grew up in may be coming to an end, but mourn not its passing and celebrate that we had it at all. Kill the fatted calf, dance and be merry.
I am thinking of appointing myself director of morale (until the first results are posted)...
My friend - whatever happens you have had a good campaign. You have revealed something of your true self, of your soul. I am proud to be standing shoulder to shoulder with you on this.
I'm out of the country so didn't watch the excitement of yesterday evening. My wife's comment after watching it though was that she can't imagine Remain losing. Interesting conclusion when compared to the reviews here.
For Brexiteers, this is it. The chance to throw off the shackles of serfdom. No longer subjugated by the bureaucratic elite. With Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson as your figurehead (and Nigel Farage at the helm) what could possibly go wrong?
And for Remainers, the open, tolerant, outward looking, successful, Internationalist country we grew up in may be coming to an end, but mourn not its passing and celebrate that we had it at all. Kill the fatted calf, dance and be merry.
I am thinking of appointing myself director of morale (until the first results are posted)...
My friend - whatever happens you have had a good campaign. You have revealed something of your true self, of your soul. I am proud to be standing shoulder to shoulder with you on this.
And so have you. If we do vote to Leave, I shall have some immense fun in the early hours of Friday.
The thread header has been written headlined in anticipation for a Leave victory
'de Gaulle was right, the UK* is insular and maritime'
*He was talking of England, but the England and the UK are the same thing
I am happy to be in the same team as all the PB Remainers. We've fought well and not too dirtily! It really has been a very revealing, enlightening campaign. Many of the Leavers have also done sterling work and I am happy for them that they will win. For some it has been a lifetime dream. For the likes of Richard Tyndall and Casino Royale it will be a very precious, intensely personal time, I imagine. Then they, like us, will have to go again and make the best of it - bearing in mind, of course, that Leave owns everything that happens from 24th June ;-)
You are very right that this is essentially an English referendum.
what is the generally accepted cutoff for a narrow vs decent win for remain, 55%? 54% narrow, 56% decent?
The narrative is now firmly set of a close result and a divided country. I think it would need to be 57/43 - a surprise on the scale of May 2015 - to change that.
My take now, for what it's worth, is that Leave has about a 40% chance of winning.
Reasons to expect a Leave win: it's (just) ahead in the polling. Immigration seems to cut through more than the economy.
Reasons to expect a Remain win: there seems to have been a small Remain majority at the start of the campaign and that will probably reassert itself in the polling booth.
So Leave still seems absurd value to me. 4.2 right now. But I think Remain is still the most likely outcome.
I look forward to Guido reminding us that it was Khan's predecessor who was the biggest advocate of Turkish membership and even made a TV programme about it (The Dream of Rome).
Presumably Boris and the other Tory friends of Turkey members really only wanted Turkey in as a ploy to get the UK out!
For Brexiteers, this is it. The chance to throw off the shackles of serfdom. No longer subjugated by the bureaucratic elite. With Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson as your figurehead (and Nigel Farage at the helm) what could possibly go wrong?
And for Remainers, the open, tolerant, outward looking, successful, Internationalist country we grew up in may be coming to an end, but mourn not its passing and celebrate that we had it at all. Kill the fatted calf, dance and be merry.
I am thinking of appointing myself director of morale (until the first results are posted)...
My friend - whatever happens you have had a good campaign. You have revealed something of your true self, of your soul. I am proud to be standing shoulder to shoulder with you on this.
And so have you. If we do vote to Leave, I shall have some immense fun in the early hours of Friday.
The thread header has been written headlined in anticipation for a Leave victory
'de Gaulle was right, the UK* is insular and maritime'
*He was talking of England, but the England and the UK are the same thing
I am happy to be in the same team as all the PB Remainers. We've fought well and not too dirtily! It really has been a very revealing, enlightening campaign. Many of the Leavers have also done sterling work and I am happy for them that they will win. For some it has been a lifetime dream. For the likes of Richard Tyndall and Casino Royale it will be a very precious, intensely personal time, I imagine. Then they, like us, will have to go again and make the best of it - bearing in mind, of course, that Leave owns everything that happens from 24th June ;-)
You are very right that this is essentially an English referendum.
I'm still fighting the good fight. I've taken today and tomorrow off work to campaign.
I'm confident. But if we lose, I know I've done my bit, and Brexit won't materially impact me.
I really admired Michael Gove but in recent weeks, what a douchebag he's become.
I've avoided listening to him, Boris, Cameron and indeed almost everyone but I find your comment interesting.
Is he a "douchebag" because he has argued against Cameron ? As I understood it, the Conservative Party was neutral and Cameron himself suspended collective responsibility for the duration of the campaign.
I realise Conservatives have this thing about "loyalty" but you can't allow dissension in the interests of an open debate and then criticise someone for using that to argue their view.
If Brexit will severely damaged the economy in the short term won't that reduce immigration, as there will be fewer vacancies?
Remains scare stories don't stack up - like this one - as they all counteract against each other
Deja vu all over again, Charles.
If we Leave the EU, the country will enter into an unprecedented period of turmoil which will affect economic growth.
It's not difficult stuff.
I know it's not difficult which is why I font understand why you find it so hard.
There will be an interim period of disruption. This will result in slightly slower growth but it will be positive.
This is quite different from the Armageddon scenarios painted by Remain which in my view completely lack credibility.
For instance, you heard Cameron on R4 this morning. Presumably you also heard the German Cbi equivalent head sayi g it would be stupid for the EU to impose trade barriers post Brexit
"interim period of disruption". Very funny.
And yes, Germany will still sell us BMWs. But that really is not even the half, the twentieth of it.
That you can't see the huge chaos (not armageddon) that Leaving the EU would cause really means you are not getting down and dirty in the detail. And why should you? You'll be fine. I'm not even sure you'll notice it.
Why should there be huge chaos from leaving a "simple trading block" ?
Seriously? 44% of our exports go to a trading bloc with a highly sophisticated set of laws and regulations. We are otherwise intimately intertwined with thousands of EU laws and regulations (the formation of the vast majority of which, of course, we lead on and were integral to).
We are about to leave it, meaning that we would have to be assessed as a new entrant, albeit one known to the EU. We will have to negotiate, and those negotiations will have to be ratified by the 27 Member States. There simply is no precedent for it. You don't know what will happen, and neither do I.
My view is that it will be chaotic; yours that it will be business as usual.
I suppose we shall have to wait and see what happens but I doubt that we will wake up as usual on Friday morning and after the two years following the Article 50 invocation, and continue to trade with the EU as though nothing has happened, albeit we can send EU nationals back home when they try to come over here and fix our blocked drains.
We were invaded in the early 13th century by the French, when we suffered the misrule of King John.
Our PM I am afraid to say. The French were also here in Scotland in the 1540s and then there was the Glorious Revolution and there were Viking invasions within the last 1000 years as well.
Inexplicably you seem to have overlooked several invasions and occupations of Scotland.
I think the EU, especially in the 70s and early 80s, did function in a mildly altruistic manner. Spain, Portugal and Greece all emerged from longer or shorter periods of dictatorship into democracy and I think the EEC (or EU) played a big part in stabilising those new democracies through CAP and other measures specifically designed to boost the southern rural economies (and from which rural France, Italy and German also benefitted).
2008 stands for me as the failure of a political and economic culture which emerged out of the ruins of Thatcherism. Whether you call it the Third Way or whatever, it was the intellectual response of the "left" to the Thatcher years and for a while it worked superbly.
Unfortunately, it collapsed due to its own internal contradictions and the response of the "right", a muddled austerity, has yet to be fully countered leaving the "right" in command of the political and economic battlefield. Yet this new austerity has now failed and we find ourselves in a vacuum for the first time since the failure of Butskellism.
I share a lot of your economic analysis, but of course the original cause of post-2008 is largely separate from the EU issue, since it was the UK and particularly the US that had the biggest explosions in debt (including private debt) and that led the way in creative banking, repackaging and selling on dodgy mortgages etc. And governments across the world had been finding new ways to spend now and shunt the bill off into the future, whether in the EU or not. The EU became an issue within the general post-2008 economic debate because the semi-formed nature of the single currency magnified the stresses created by the crisis that started in the US and spread across the world. In the UK we were particularly exposed because the government was in denial about the true state of the world economy and because high government debt was matched by very leveraged companies and particularly hign levels of both private debt and unfunded pension liability.
I would argue that over the past ten years in particular the EU has enabled a similar positive process to happen in Eastern Europe as you describe for Iberia a decade or two earlier. I have travelled to Poland every few years since the wall came down, and the transformation of that country over this period is little short of a miracle.
I really admired Michael Gove but in recent weeks, what a douchebag he's become.
I've avoided listening to him, Boris, Cameron and indeed almost everyone but I find your comment interesting.
Is he a "douchebag" because he has argued against Cameron ? As I understood it, the Conservative Party was neutral and Cameron himself suspended collective responsibility for the duration of the campaign.
I realise Conservatives have this thing about "loyalty" but you can't allow dissension in the interests of an open debate and then criticise someone for using that to argue their view.
His lies on Turkey and now his Nazi comments this morning, no thanks Michael.
My take now, for what it's worth, is that Leave has about a 40% chance of winning.
Reasons to expect a Leave win: it's (just) ahead in the polling. Immigration seems to cut through more than the economy.
Reasons to expect a Remain win: there seems to have been a small Remain majority at the start of the campaign and that will probably reassert itself in the polling booth.
So Leave still seems absurd value to me. 4.2 right now. But I think Remain is still the most likely outcome.
I think the spreads offer the real value here. SpreadEx allows you to sell Remain at 53.5. So, if the polls are right and its 51 to Remain, you're quids in. And if - as is entirely possible - its 52:48 to Leave you've made out like a bandito. What's your downside? The worst case scenario is probably 55:45 to Remain, which means you're only down 1.5.
I'm still fighting the good fight. I've taken today and tomorrow off work to campaign.
I'm confident. But if we lose, I know I've done my bit, and Brexit won't materially impact me.
And if you do "win", I suppose it's too much to hope you won't indulge in your usual gloating and trolling of those on us on the other side ?
Seriously, what happens if REMAIN wins ? Cameron will still go at some point whether he's challenged or not. Will the Conservatives than elect a leader who perhaps supported LEAVE and would you then be committed to a second referendum ?
Oddly enough, both results will cause problems and I begin to suspect neither result will end this.
I'm still fighting the good fight. I've taken today and tomorrow off work to campaign.
I'm confident. But if we lose, I know I've done my bit, and Brexit won't materially impact me.
And if you do "win", I suppose it's too much to hope you won't indulge in your usual gloating and trolling of those on us on the other side ?
Seriously, what happens if REMAIN wins ? Cameron will still go at some point whether he's challenged or not. Will the Conservatives than elect a leader who perhaps supported LEAVE and would you then be committed to a second referendum ?
Oddly enough, both results will cause problems and I begin to suspect neither result will end this.
What's the point of winning if you can't gloat and troll your opponents ?
My take now, for what it's worth, is that Leave has about a 40% chance of winning.
Reasons to expect a Leave win: it's (just) ahead in the polling. Immigration seems to cut through more than the economy.
Reasons to expect a Remain win: there seems to have been a small Remain majority at the start of the campaign and that will probably reassert itself in the polling booth.
So Leave still seems absurd value to me. 4.2 right now. But I think Remain is still the most likely outcome.
I think the spreads offer the real value here. SpreadEx allows you to sell Remain at 53.5. So, if the polls are right and its 51 to Remain, you're quids in. And if - as is entirely possible - its 52:48 to Leave you've made out like a bandito. What's your downside? The worst case scenario is probably 55:45 to Remain, which means you're only down 1.5.
I think ~52 is the median forecast, though which doesn't leave much room for profit v risk.
My take now, for what it's worth, is that Leave has about a 40% chance of winning.
Reasons to expect a Leave win: it's (just) ahead in the polling. Immigration seems to cut through more than the economy.
Reasons to expect a Remain win: there seems to have been a small Remain majority at the start of the campaign and that will probably reassert itself in the polling booth.
So Leave still seems absurd value to me. 4.2 right now. But I think Remain is still the most likely outcome.
I think the spreads offer the real value here. SpreadEx allows you to sell Remain at 53.5. So, if the polls are right and its 51 to Remain, you're quids in. And if - as is entirely possible - its 52:48 to Leave you've made out like a bandito. What's your downside? The worst case scenario is probably 55:45 to Remain, which means you're only down 1.5.
Being up 1.5 is being "quids in" but being down the same amount is "only" a small loss? Yeah, right.
If on balance you expect a remain win (as I do), it's all very well saying that the odds on leave represent absurd value - but after getting in there has to be a point where you can get out with a profit. I am not sure how much movement in the betting - which has been remarkably stable - there is now going to be, until the result starts to emerge, by which time it Is probably too late to exit at a profit, if you are wrong?
My take now, for what it's worth, is that Leave has about a 40% chance of winning.
Reasons to expect a Leave win: it's (just) ahead in the polling. Immigration seems to cut through more than the economy.
Reasons to expect a Remain win: there seems to have been a small Remain majority at the start of the campaign and that will probably reassert itself in the polling booth.
So Leave still seems absurd value to me. 4.2 right now. But I think Remain is still the most likely outcome.
I think the spreads offer the real value here. SpreadEx allows you to sell Remain at 53.5. So, if the polls are right and its 51 to Remain, you're quids in. And if - as is entirely possible - its 52:48 to Leave you've made out like a bandito. What's your downside? The worst case scenario is probably 55:45 to Remain, which means you're only down 1.5.
I'm on that after you tipped it the other day. I agree the downside risk seems minimal. (Famous lsst words.)
One of my colleagues will vote tomorrow. Last time he cast his ballot, it was for Pitt the Younger.
ah, the glory days of rotten boroughs!
Good old Dunny on the Wold.
Country's gone downhill since we got rid of the rotten boroughs and extended the franchise
It really went down hill when university graduates from proper universities no longer got two votes (with the second vote bein by STV). That was still in practice in the 1950s I think.
BBC debate had TV audience of 3.86m (19.3% audience share).
NB. That's the average audience throughout the two hours.
Slightly outrated by Spain v Croatia which got 4.6m.
Reasonable audience but not enough to think it could have had a substantial impact - given it was generally considered to have been pretty even.
But nowadays a big and growing slice of audience - particularly for popular shows - comes from viewing later, in this case iPlayer. Too early to say how many people will see at least some of the debate this way?
If Brexit will severely damaged the economy in the short term won't that reduce immigration, as there will be fewer vacancies?
Remains scare stories don't stack up - like this one - as they all counteract against each other
Deja vu all over again, Charles.
If we Leave the EU, the country will enter into an unprecedented period of turmoil which will affect economic growth.
It's not difficult stuff.
Indeed. The Brexit negotiations will be Suez on Steroids. We'll be up against the US AND Franco/German deep states. We'll survive of course but we'll get a slow and crap deal to deter other potential trouble makers. They'll do everything to prevent contagion.
My take now, for what it's worth, is that Leave has about a 40% chance of winning.
Reasons to expect a Leave win: it's (just) ahead in the polling. Immigration seems to cut through more than the economy.
Reasons to expect a Remain win: there seems to have been a small Remain majority at the start of the campaign and that will probably reassert itself in the polling booth.
So Leave still seems absurd value to me. 4.2 right now. But I think Remain is still the most likely outcome.
I think the spreads offer the real value here. SpreadEx allows you to sell Remain at 53.5. So, if the polls are right and its 51 to Remain, you're quids in. And if - as is entirely possible - its 52:48 to Leave you've made out like a bandito. What's your downside? The worst case scenario is probably 55:45 to Remain, which means you're only down 1.5.
Being up 1.5 is being "quids in" but being down the same amount is "only" a small loss? Yeah, right.
If on balance you expect a remain win (as I do), it's all very well saying that the odds on leave represent absurd value - but after getting in there has to be a point where you can get out with a profit. I am not sure how much movement in the betting - which has been remarkably stable - there is now going to be, until the result starts to emerge, by which time it Is probably too late to exit at a profit, if you are wrong?
I think you'll find it's a 2.5 profit to the mid point in the polls, against a 1.5 loss to worst case.
With seemingly half the country on their side, why are some Leavers "shy"? (Asks a Remainer)
Dont be surprised if you dont get an answer.
I would guess that leavers are shy because their work or study environments mean they are surrounded by mostly remainers, who are sometimes dismissive or patronising, and because of a deep down realisation that their decision may be more emotional than rational. Remainers are shy because they live in parts of the country where the leave supporters are numerous, vocal, and sometimes aggressive.
I really admired Michael Gove but in recent weeks, what a douchebag he's become.
I've avoided listening to him, Boris, Cameron and indeed almost everyone but I find your comment interesting.
Is he a "douchebag" because he has argued against Cameron ? As I understood it, the Conservative Party was neutral and Cameron himself suspended collective responsibility for the duration of the campaign.
I realise Conservatives have this thing about "loyalty" but you can't allow dissension in the interests of an open debate and then criticise someone for using that to argue their view.
His lies on Turkey and now his Nazi comments this morning, no thanks Michael.
I never thought I would be defending Gove ...
By Nazi comments, do you mean that Gove, quoting Einstein on opponents of relativity, said "Look, if I was wrong, one would have been enough”?
If so, I think you’re doing the smearing.
Einsteins’ comment is a well-known retort when someone says "I must be right because 100 or 1000 other people support me".
If Brexit will severely damaged the economy in the short term won't that reduce immigration, as there will be fewer vacancies?
Ironically economic depression is about the ONLY way Brexit is likely to substantialy reduce immigration. E
So we get more economic problems but less immigration. Isn't the whole Leave case based on immigration causing the economic problems?
Excepting recession effects, the reduction in immigration following Brexit is unlikely to be more than 15%. To enable ANY reduction in immigration we would need remove ourselves from the single European market with negative economic consequences. I expect a consensus to develop post-Brexit around the EEA as a way of staying in the single European market. Immigration is a facet of an open market in a globalised world. That fact doesn't change on Brexit, but no-one is honest about it.
If you vote Leave to reduce immigration you are doing so on a false prospectus.
With seemingly half the country on their side, why are some Leavers "shy"? (Asks a Remainer)
I'd wondered the same thing. I know sone places are not amenable to leave - my workplace for one - but in general it's a widely accepted view and. Says popular things re the eu, unlike defending it.
We were invaded in the early 13th century by the French, when we suffered the misrule of King John.
Our PM I am afraid to say. The French were also here in Scotland in the 1540s and then there was the Glorious Revolution and there were Viking invasions within the last 1000 years as well.
Inexplicably you seem to have overlooked several invasions and occupations of Scotland.
Cameron does have a very poor grap of our history, there was an earlier mistake on WW2. Maybe that is why he misjudged the people of this country over the referendum?
Comments
Today should be a day of celebration.
For Brexiteers, this is it. The chance to throw off the shackles of serfdom. No longer subjugated by the bureaucratic elite. With Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson as your figurehead (and Nigel Farage at the helm) what could possibly go wrong?
And for Remainers, the open, tolerant, outward looking, successful, Internationalist country we grew up in may be coming to an end, but mourn not its passing and celebrate that we had it at all. Kill the fatted calf, dance and be merry.
I am thinking of appointing myself director of morale (until the first results are posted)...
Remain 54%
Leave 46%
http://opinion.co.uk/perch/resources/finalpollanalysisv2.pdf
The EU has not been brilliant for British workers. Not only has the EU caused job stagnation & job insecurity, it has put pressure on housing, services, social cohesion, law & order.
The house is collapsing, time to get out.
The ship is sinking, time to board abandon ship.
The fish is rotten, time to remove it from the fridge.
Leave probably does need to be ahead by about 1%+ in GB to offset expats, Gibraltar and NI (others have done calculations).
However, that does not mean Leave needs to be ahead in the polls "in order to have a chance."
The polls may be wrong, they may be right. We don't know. Anyone who thinks they are accurate to within 1% is blind to their method and their track record.
I'll find out in the next 36 hours if they are right.
someone told me the armed forces are 90% for leave though. Have you built that in?
Do we believe them? Altogether now.......no.
The thread header has been written headlined in anticipation for a Leave victory
'de Gaulle was right, the UK* is insular and maritime'
*He was talking of England, but the England and the UK are the same thing
NatCen found the following Remain leads (Table 3.5):
(1) General population: 4.6%
(2) Weighted according to stated likelihood of voting: 3.1%
(3) Weighted according to demographic group, based on 2015 turnout: 6.5%
http://natcen.ac.uk/media/1216024/natcen-eu-referendum-report-200616.pdf
So it seems that demographic factors can be expected to favour Remain somewhat - in other words, the class factor wins out over the age factor. And Leave supporters are more likely to state that they will vote than Remain supporters.
Viewed another way, if the turnout in different demographic groups were the same as in 2015, a neck-and-neck poll unweighted for turnout would translate to a 1.9% Remain lead, and a neck-and-neck poll based on stated likelihood to vote would translate to a 3.4% Remain lead.
On the other hand, it may be that the referendum is so different from a parliamentary election that stated likelihood to vote is a better guide, in which case the polls can be taken at face value (or, if unweighted for turnout, need to be adjusted slightly in favour of Leave).
In any case, the shifts produced by the turnout models don't seem particularly large compared with the differences between individual polls.
The Romans too were influenced by their provinces and ultimately blended Roman & Judaism in the Catholic Church, where the Pontiff still wears white.
Leftist Multiculturalism however, where foreign cultures are considered equal or superior to British culture, is little more than 'Positive Colonialism'
https://twitter.com/euroguido/status/745343648624181248
You are a very naughty boy.
And yes, Germany will still sell us BMWs. But that really is not even the half, the twentieth of it.
That you can't see the huge chaos (not armageddon) that Leaving the EU would cause really means you are not getting down and dirty in the detail. And why should you? You'll be fine. I'm not even sure you'll notice it.
I don't think young people or working class people will decide this vote. The key demographic is women. They will swing back to remain just like in the Sindyref.
A separate question is whether a more extensive renegotiation would have changed the outcome of the referendum, whatever that is going to be. Well, we'll never know.
2008 stands for me as the failure of a political and economic culture which emerged out of the ruins of Thatcherism. Whether you call it the Third Way or whatever, it was the intellectual response of the "left" to the Thatcher years and for a while it worked superbly.
Unfortunately, it collapsed due to its own internal contradictions and the response of the "right", a muddled austerity, has yet to be fully countered leaving the "right" in command of the political and economic battlefield. Yet this new austerity has now failed and we find ourselves in a vacuum for the first time since the failure of Butskellism.
You are very right that this is essentially an English referendum.
Reasons to expect a Leave win: it's (just) ahead in the polling. Immigration seems to cut through more than the economy.
Reasons to expect a Remain win: there seems to have been a small Remain majority at the start of the campaign and that will probably reassert itself in the polling booth.
So Leave still seems absurd value to me. 4.2 right now. But I think Remain is still the most likely outcome.
I look forward to Guido reminding us that it was Khan's predecessor who was the biggest advocate of Turkish membership and even made a TV programme about it (The Dream of Rome).
Presumably Boris and the other Tory friends of Turkey members really only wanted Turkey in as a ploy to get the UK out!
I'm confident. But if we lose, I know I've done my bit, and Brexit won't materially impact me.
Is he a "douchebag" because he has argued against Cameron ? As I understood it, the Conservative Party was neutral and Cameron himself suspended collective responsibility for the duration of the campaign.
I realise Conservatives have this thing about "loyalty" but you can't allow dissension in the interests of an open debate and then criticise someone for using that to argue their view.
You brexit, you pays for it.
I did not retweet it...
We are about to leave it, meaning that we would have to be assessed as a new entrant, albeit one known to the EU. We will have to negotiate, and those negotiations will have to be ratified by the 27 Member States. There simply is no precedent for it. You don't know what will happen, and neither do I.
My view is that it will be chaotic; yours that it will be business as usual.
I suppose we shall have to wait and see what happens but I doubt that we will wake up as usual on Friday morning and after the two years following the Article 50 invocation, and continue to trade with the EU as though nothing has happened, albeit we can send EU nationals back home when they try to come over here and fix our blocked drains.
I would argue that over the past ten years in particular the EU has enabled a similar positive process to happen in Eastern Europe as you describe for Iberia a decade or two earlier. I have travelled to Poland every few years since the wall came down, and the transformation of that country over this period is little short of a miracle.
Does that suggest that any private polling is at least reasonably solid for remain?
By reasonably solid I would say at worst a Leave lead of 1% maximum.
If Leave really did lead by 1% right now that should still mean a Remain win given polling booth swingback plus Northern Ireland.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market_data/currency/default.stm
Seriously, what happens if REMAIN wins ? Cameron will still go at some point whether he's challenged or not. Will the Conservatives than elect a leader who perhaps supported LEAVE and would you then be committed to a second referendum ?
Oddly enough, both results will cause problems and I begin to suspect neither result will end this.
NB. That's the average audience throughout the two hours.
Slightly outrated by Spain v Croatia which got 4.6m.
Reasonable audience but not enough to think it could have had a substantial impact - given it was generally considered to have been pretty even.
If on balance you expect a remain win (as I do), it's all very well saying that the odds on leave represent absurd value - but after getting in there has to be a point where you can get out with a profit. I am not sure how much movement in the betting - which has been remarkably stable - there is now going to be, until the result starts to emerge, by which time it Is probably too late to exit at a profit, if you are wrong?
How does that make any sense? Troops are mostly young and so fall into the more pro remain demographic if anything.
Have a works office outing to Kempton Park races this evening - anyone care to give me some tips? (I know about betting, but not about horses at all)
Final Opinium #EUref poll due out tomorrow (Wednesday) around 4:30pm. Fieldwork: 20th – 22nd June, circa 3,000 UK adults.
I'm hoping we win. I'm taking nothing for granted.
Where they most noticeably struggle is with low level administrators; C1s.
These people are not middle class. They are working class, but their work tools are a pen and call centre headset.
By Nazi comments, do you mean that Gove, quoting Einstein on opponents of relativity, said "Look, if I was wrong, one would have been enough”?
If so, I think you’re doing the smearing.
Einsteins’ comment is a well-known retort when someone says "I must be right because 100 or 1000 other people support me".
If you vote Leave to reduce immigration you are doing so on a false prospectus.