politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Four of the last pollsters to report have LEAVE doing bette

SeanT said:

Lowlander said:

DavidL said:

I think she will look to play long. She will say that we need to wait to see what deal that the UK gets and whether it remains a part of the Single Market or not. She will also want to see if the oil price improves although I fear that ship has sailed.

Brexit creates a whole new set of problems for Sindy. England remains by far our largest market and we need a single market with England far, far more than we do with rEU. Nicola will not want another referendum unless she is very sure she is going to win and the polling on that at the moment is bad.

But you are right. The pressure on her would be severe.

Brexit only causes problems for Independence if the dire warnings turn out to have any merit. If the economy does not collapse, those who claimed the experts were talking nonsense will be proven right and that will be a massive boost for Independence.

If the UK prospers outside the EU then there is almost zero chance the Scots would risk all that, to join the EU, and take up the euro, and suffer frontiers and tariffs along Hadrian's Wall. Plus, iSotland in the EU would mean a much more distant, heavy handed government from Brussels, compared to the sweet deal they get right now in London (a large bloc of MPs voting at Westminster but virtual autonomy at home).

iScotland's best hope is that iUK goes into Depression


iUK!!!

There it is. iUK.

MarqueeMark said:

OllyT said:

MarqueeMark said:

MikeL said:

PlatoSaid said:

Centrica have written pro-Remain to their 37k staff - Sky

These letters might not seem very important because the number of people receiving each one is tiny compared to the electorate as a whole.

But they all add up - and if the result is very tight then if they cumulatively move even one or two hundred thousand votes they could make a difference.

Again, it smacks of the Establishment looking patrician at best, desperate to cling onto their power at worst.

In many cases, I expect the response will be "Fuck you, Boss, I'm voting Leave...."

Seems to me a large part of the Leave motivation is "Fuck you" to everybody. Fair enough, people have that prerogative. What will stick in my craw is any subsequent moaning and whingeing from the same people if it goes tits up - the one thing that absolutely nobody can claim in this referendum is that they were not warned about what the possible consequences of Brexit. If people still want to go ahead that's their decision but any buyer's remorse is going to fall on deaf ears.

Because they feel their elected betters have said "Fuck you" to the voters, time after time.

Many of these people feel that they have no meaningful say on things that matter to them. Things such as migration into their country. Rightly so. They have been howled down as "racists" by a political elite for whom that is easier than entering into a reasoned debate.

Now they have a chance to stick it to the Man. Don't be surprised if they take that chance. Yes, it may be nihilistic. But hell, it will feel SO DAMNED GOOD.

HurstLlama said:

SouthamObserver said:

HurstLlama said:

OllyT said:

MarqueeMark said:

MikeL said:

PlatoSaid said:

Centrica have written pro-Remain to their 37k staff - Sky

These letters might not seem very important because the number of people receiving each one is tiny compared to the electorate as a whole.

But they all add up - and if the result is very tight then if they cumulatively move even one or two hundred thousand votes they could make a difference.

Again, it smacks of the Establishment looking patrician at best, desperate to cling onto their power at worst.

In many cases, I expect the response will be "Fuck you, Boss, I'm voting Leave...."

Seems to me a large part of the Leave motivation is "Fuck you" to everybody. Fair enough, people have that prerogative. What will stick in my craw is any subsequent moaning and whingeing from the same people if it goes tits up - the one thing that absolutely nobody can claim in this referendum is that they were not warned about what the possible consequences of Brexit. If people still want to go ahead that's their decision but any buyer's remorse is going to fall on deaf ears.

And what sort of tits up do you expect , Mr. T? Someone, and I am sorry I forget who, said on where this morning that the FTSE could fall, by 10%, the value of my house could drop by 10% and my income could drop by 10%. Well, I have been through all of those in the past, and worse, and each time I have survived. I am not prepared to be scared by such stories.

Goldman Sachs say we must stay in else financial and economic armageddon will descend on us. The chairman of JCB say we can not only survive but thrive. Which would you say is more worthy of belief?

You may well be able to cope with a 10% fall in income, many others won't. And should it be across the board, that means significantly less tax take, which also means higher borrowing, higher taxes and more cuts. Again, the people most affected will be those at the bottom who Boris and Mike are supposed to be speaking for these days, having completely ignored them up to now.

Sorry, Mr. O., but when my income dropped by a damn sight more than 10%, I could not afford it either (in 1995 my wife and I went through a period in which we had a disposable income of £20 per month and a two year old toddler). There is nothing that is being threatened that I haven't lived through before. I see no reason to be scared by the stories being put about.

SouthamObserver said:

Lowlander said:

SeanT said:

DavidL said:

I have consistently said that I expected Remain to win and frankly expected them to win fairly easily given all the advantages that they had.

Now, at the end of days (according to Alastair at least) I have changed my mind. I think Leave are going to win. Just. Or Remain. Not sure. Yeah, Leave. 52:48.

Gulp.

PS how do you think BREXIT would play out in Scotland?

I think Sturgeon is bluffing. She won't call indyref 2 on the basis of a future iScotland joining the EU because that really WOULD mean frontiers at Berwick and a true currency nightmare. so even if she could negotiate the legal obstacles to a second vote (very hard as the UK would at the same time be thrashing out its own EU divorce) she'd likely lose her next referendum, too.

But I have called Scottish politics wrong, in the recent past. And she would be under severe pressure from frothier Nats to stage another plebiscite.

In terms of Scottish Independence, a Brexit vote puts Unionists in a rather difficult situation. They need to hope that the fallout post Leave is bad enough to confirm their dire warnings. If it is not, and I think it will be relatively benign, then the likelihood of another Project Fear working in a second Indyref becomes very unlikely.

That's not good for the Establishment. Hope the economy tanks or accept Scotland goes her own way. A poorer Britain or a broken Britain, if you will.

Yep, that sounds about right to me. Though if things really tank post-Brexit, Scots may well conclude that they have very little left to lose anyway. If English voters can vote against their economic self-interest, why not Scots?

PlatoSaid said:

It's incredible! Sky has finally managed 15 secs on the overnight migrant riot chaos in Calais.

Been all over Twitter since about 10pm yesterday.

London said:

PlatoSaid said:

It's incredible! Sky has finally managed 15 secs on the overnight migrant riot chaos in Calais.

Been all over Twitter since about 10pm yesterday.

I haven't seen it once on twitter!

SeanT said:

Lowlander said:

DavidL said:

I think she will look to play long. She will say that we need to wait to see what deal that the UK gets and whether it remains a part of the Single Market or not. She will also want to see if the oil price improves although I fear that ship has sailed.

Brexit creates a whole new set of problems for Sindy. England remains by far our largest market and we need a single market with England far, far more than we do with rEU. Nicola will not want another referendum unless she is very sure she is going to win and the polling on that at the moment is bad.

But you are right. The pressure on her would be severe.

Brexit only causes problems for Independence if the dire warnings turn out to have any merit. If the economy does not collapse, those who claimed the experts were talking nonsense will be proven right and that will be a massive boost for Independence.

If the UK prospers outside the EU then there is almost zero chance the Scots would risk all that, to join the EU, and take up the euro, and suffer frontiers and tariffs along Hadrian's Wall. Plus, iSotland in the EU would mean a much more distant, heavy handed government from Brussels, compared to the sweet deal they get right now in London (a large bloc of MPs voting at Westminster but virtual autonomy at home).

iScotland's best hope is that iUK goes into Depression


iUK!!!

There it is. iUK.

Sandpit said:

brokenwheel said:

MikeL said:

PlatoSaid said:

Electoral Commission
46.4m voters on electoral register, two million more than December 2015, reports Electoral Commission

Though exactly the same as GE 2015 (to nearest 0.1m).

GE 2015 electorate = 46,420k

Indeed,

https://www.twitter.com/EuroGuido/status/745301017177243648

Am I the only one thinking the turnout is being overblown a bit? As far as I see it I'm not sure turnout is going to be much higher than the GE, if that.

Guido's misinterpreting his own numbers there, the electorate has grown by 150k since GE2015. The 2 million figure is since December 2015, which dropped by that amount under the re-registration exercise last year.

Good to see so many people enthused though, the only thing worse than a close result would be a close result on a low turnout.

Lowlander said:

SouthamObserver said:

Lowlander said:

SeanT said:

DavidL said:

I have consistently said that I expected Remain to win and frankly expected them to win fairly easily given all the advantages that they had.

Now, at the end of days (according to Alastair at least) I have changed my mind. I think Leave are going to win. Just. Or Remain. Not sure. Yeah, Leave. 52:48.

Gulp.

PS how do you think BREXIT would play out in Scotland?

I think Sturgeon is bluffing. She won't call indyref 2 on the basis of a future iScotland joining the EU because that really WOULD mean frontiers at Berwick and a true currency nightmare. so even if she could negotiate the legal obstacles to a second vote (very hard as the UK would at the same time be thrashing out its own EU divorce) she'd likely lose her next referendum, too.

But I have called Scottish politics wrong, in the recent past. And she would be under severe pressure from frothier Nats to stage another plebiscite.

In terms of Scottish Independence, a Brexit vote puts Unionists in a rather difficult situation. They need to hope that the fallout post Leave is bad enough to confirm their dire warnings. If it is not, and I think it will be relatively benign, then the likelihood of another Project Fear working in a second Indyref becomes very unlikely.

That's not good for the Establishment. Hope the economy tanks or accept Scotland goes her own way. A poorer Britain or a broken Britain, if you will.

Yep, that sounds about right to me. Though if things really tank post-Brexit, Scots may well conclude that they have very little left to lose anyway. If English voters can vote against their economic self-interest, why not Scots?

Yes, I think you are right. A Leave vote is the ideal scenario for Scottish Independence. If the economy doesn't tank, the warnings will fail next referendum, if it does tank, there is going to be no reason not to jettison the rest of the UK. Its a proper win/win.

Lowlander said:

DavidL said:

brokenwheel said:

MikeL said:

PlatoSaid said:

Electoral Commission
46.4m voters on electoral register, two million more than December 2015, reports Electoral Commission

Though exactly the same as GE 2015 (to nearest 0.1m).

GE 2015 electorate = 46,420k

Indeed,

https://www.twitter.com/EuroGuido/status/745301017177243648

Am I the only one thinking the turnout is being overblown a bit? As far as I see it I'm not sure turnout is going to be much higher than the GE, if that.

Scotland has lost 100K voters since the election? Weird. And a feather in the scales for Leave. Probably. Depending who has come off the register. Oh never mind.

EU Nationals come off, the EU vote isn't that interesting, so lots of people haven't been incentivised to go on. Its a good indicator for a sub 55% turnout in Scotland.

Sandpit said:

brokenwheel said:

MikeL said:

PlatoSaid said:

Electoral Commission
46.4m voters on electoral register, two million more than December 2015, reports Electoral Commission

Though exactly the same as GE 2015 (to nearest 0.1m).

GE 2015 electorate = 46,420k

Indeed,

https://www.twitter.com/EuroGuido/status/745301017177243648

Am I the only one thinking the turnout is being overblown a bit? As far as I see it I'm not sure turnout is going to be much higher than the GE, if that.

Guido's misinterpreting his own numbers there, the electorate has grown by 150k since GE2015. The 2 million figure is since December 2015, which dropped by that amount under the re-registration exercise last year.

Good to see so many people enthused though, the only thing worse than a close result would be a close result on a low turnout.

foxinsoxuk said:

Many thanks to the fellow who dropped by my prize from the PB London Mayor NoJam. The combination of maps and politics in book form has been squirrelled away from my partner who would not approve. Some 5 years ago I came Joint top in the Eastleigh by election NoJam, though my GE and Sindy entrances were less good.

PBers of a delicate constitution may need to take heed; my NoJam Brexit was:

Leave on 41.57, turnout 67.34%

It is Foxys little pungent dropping rather than a product of Jacks ARSE4EU, but nevertheless...

OllyT said:

HurstLlama said:

OllyT said:

MarqueeMark said:

MikeL said:

PlatoSaid said:

Centrica have written pro-Remain to their 37k staff - Sky

These letters might not seem very important because the number of people receiving each one is tiny compared to the electorate as a whole.

But they all add up - and if the result is very tight then if they cumulatively move even one or two hundred thousand votes they could make a difference.

Again, it smacks of the Establishment looking patrician at best, desperate to cling onto their power at worst.

In many cases, I expect the response will be "Fuck you, Boss, I'm voting Leave...."

Seems to me a large part of the Leave motivation is "Fuck you" to everybody. Fair enough, people have that prerogative. What will stick in my craw is any subsequent moaning and whingeing from the same people if it goes tits up - the one thing that absolutely nobody can claim in this referendum is that they were not warned about what the possible consequences of Brexit. If people still want to go ahead that's their decision but any buyer's remorse is going to fall on deaf ears.

And what sort of tits up do you expect , Mr. T? Someone, and I am sorry I forget who, said on where this morning that the FTSE could fall, by 10%, the value of my house could drop by 10% and my income could drop by 10%. Well, I have been through all of those in the past, and worse, and each time I have survived. I am not prepared to be scared by such stories.

Goldman Sachs say we must stay in else financial and economic armageddon will descend on us. The chairman of JCB say we can not only survive but thrive. Which would you say is more worthy of belief?

I was thinking more in terms of workers at Nissan, Centrica, Airbus saying "fuck you" to the bosses (as MarqueeMark put it) and voting Leave. Fine if they do but if Brexit ultimately means they lose their jobs sympathy will be thin on the ground.

f

Lowlander said:

DavidL said:

brokenwheel said:

MikeL said:

PlatoSaid said:

Electoral Commission
46.4m voters on electoral register, two million more than December 2015, reports Electoral Commission

Though exactly the same as GE 2015 (to nearest 0.1m).

GE 2015 electorate = 46,420k

Indeed,

https://www.twitter.com/EuroGuido/status/745301017177243648

Am I the only one thinking the turnout is being overblown a bit? As far as I see it I'm not sure turnout is going to be much higher than the GE, if that.

Scotland has lost 100K voters since the election? Weird. And a feather in the scales for Leave. Probably. Depending who has come off the register. Oh never mind.

EU Nationals come off, the EU vote isn't that interesting, so lots of people haven't been incentivised to go on. Its a good indicator for a sub 55% turnout in Scotland.

HurstLlama said:

OllyT said:

HurstLlama said:

OllyT said:

MarqueeMark said:

MikeL said:

PlatoSaid said:

Centrica have written pro-Remain to their 37k staff - Sky

These letters might not seem very important because the number of people receiving each one is tiny compared to the electorate as a whole.

But they all add up - and if the result is very tight then if they cumulatively move even one or two hundred thousand votes they could make a difference.

Again, it smacks of the Establishment looking patrician at best, desperate to cling onto their power at worst.

In many cases, I expect the response will be "Fuck you, Boss, I'm voting Leave...."

Seems to me a large part of the Leave motivation is "Fuck you" to everybody. Fair enough, people have that prerogative. What will stick in my craw is any subsequent moaning and whingeing from the same people if it goes tits up - the one thing that absolutely nobody can claim in this referendum is that they were not warned about what the possible consequences of Brexit. If people still want to go ahead that's their decision but any buyer's remorse is going to fall on deaf ears.

And what sort of tits up do you expect , Mr. T? Someone, and I am sorry I forget who, said on where this morning that the FTSE could fall, by 10%, the value of my house could drop by 10% and my income could drop by 10%. Well, I have been through all of those in the past, and worse, and each time I have survived. I am not prepared to be scared by such stories.

Goldman Sachs say we must stay in else financial and economic armageddon will descend on us. The chairman of JCB say we can not only survive but thrive. Which would you say is more worthy of belief?

I was thinking more in terms of workers at Nissan, Centrica, Airbus saying "fuck you" to the bosses (as MarqueeMark put it) and voting Leave. Fine if they do but if Brexit ultimately means they lose their jobs sympathy will be thin on the ground.

f

I understand your point of view, but I am less convinced by the idea that Centrica will leave the UK (after all it is British Gas under another name), or indeed Nissan and Airbus for that matter. We heard all the same stories in late nineties when the debate was whether we should join the Euro.

Scrapheap_as_was said:

This german team seem faster, bigger, stronger, skilled in every department vs NI.

At least we've got Wilshere.

tyson said:

Predictions anyone.

I'm going for 50:50 and a turnout of 64%. I honestly cannot call it for either side. Anti politics and immigration are a toxic brew.......

Scott_P said:

Michael Gove compares experts warning against Brexit to Nazis who smeared Albert Einstein's work as he threatens to quit David Cameron's Cabinet

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/21/michael-gove-compares-experts-warning-against-brexit-to-nazis-wh/

AlastairMeeks said:

It would mean that the confederacy of dunces tallied over 50% of the voting public.

brokenwheel said:

HYUFD said:

Lowlander said:

DavidL said:

brokenwheel said:

MikeL said:

PlatoSaid said:

Electoral Commission
46.4m voters on electoral register, two million more than December 2015, reports Electoral Commission

Though exactly the same as GE 2015 (to nearest 0.1m).

GE 2015 electorate = 46,420k

Indeed,

https://www.twitter.com/EuroGuido/status/745301017177243648

Am I the only one thinking the turnout is being overblown a bit? As far as I see it I'm not sure turnout is going to be much higher than the GE, if that.

Scotland has lost 100K voters since the election? Weird. And a feather in the scales for Leave. Probably. Depending who has come off the register. Oh never mind.

EU Nationals come off, the EU vote isn't that interesting, so lots of people haven't been incentivised to go on. Its a good indicator for a sub 55% turnout in Scotland.

The last poll I saw on Sunday had 77% certain to vote in Scotland, even higher than the 73% across the UK

Self-reporting of likelihood to vote is always overstated.

taffys said:

I note you start with "If the UK prospers". That is a big if.

Really??

I would suggest that history is overwhelmingly against you.

When, in the last 10 centuries of freedom and independence has England/Britain NOT prospered, relatively?

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

HYUFD said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

The maths are awful for Remain. As I said this morning.

Electorate 46 Million

NI, Scotland, London = 10 Million

Wales and Rest of England = 36 Million.

Even if Scotland/NI/London vote 70-30 remain a 55.5-44.5 leave vote in Rest of England is enough.

Outside the university cities like Oxford, Norwich, Exeter and a few other Cities like Brighton & Manchester (city not greater) where will the votes for Remain come from?

Sorry but Remain have had it.

Rubbish, the Kent poll posted earlier showed Remain winning Tunbridge Wells, Tonbridge and Malling, Sevenoaks, Canterbury and Gravesham. Yes Leave won more Kent seats overall but results like that should be enough to keep Leave under 55% across England even if it wins a majority in England thus allowing Scotland and London to give Remain a narrow lead across the UK

And I will raise you with remain wont get anywhere near the 70% worst case I assumed in those places. Probably nearer 60-40

SouthamObserver said:

Lowlander said:

SouthamObserver said:

Lowlander said:

SeanT said:

DavidL said:

I have consistently said that I expected Remain to win and frankly expected them to win fairly easily given all the advantages that they had.

Now, at the end of days (according to Alastair at least) I have changed my mind. I think Leave are going to win. Just. Or Remain. Not sure. Yeah, Leave. 52:48.

Gulp.

PS how do you think BREXIT would play out in Scotland?

I think Sturgeon is bluffing. She won't call indyref 2 on the basis of a future iScotland joining the EU because that really WOULD mean frontiers at Berwick and a true currency nightmare. so even if she could negotiate the legal obstacles to a second vote (very hard as the UK would at the same time be thrashing out its own EU divorce) she'd likely lose her next referendum, too.

But I have called Scottish politics wrong, in the recent past. And she would be under severe pressure from frothier Nats to stage another plebiscite.

In terms of Scottish Independence, a Brexit vote puts Unionists in a rather difficult situation. They need to hope that the fallout post Leave is bad enough to confirm their dire warnings. If it is not, and I think it will be relatively benign, then the likelihood of another Project Fear working in a second Indyref becomes very unlikely.

That's not good for the Establishment. Hope the economy tanks or accept Scotland goes her own way. A poorer Britain or a broken Britain, if you will.

Yep, that sounds about right to me. Though if things really tank post-Brexit, Scots may well conclude that they have very little left to lose anyway. If English voters can vote against their economic self-interest, why not Scots?

Yes, I think you are right. A Leave vote is the ideal scenario for Scottish Independence. If the economy doesn't tank, the warnings will fail next referendum, if it does tank, there is going to be no reason not to jettison the rest of the UK. Its a proper win/win.

Yep, that's how I see it. Experts can be safely ignored in our new post-truth world. I don't think it is a huge coincidence that every Unionist big hitter in Scotland is on the Remain side. They know what's coming when we Leave.

HurstLlama said:

OllyT said:

HurstLlama said:

OllyT said:

MarqueeMark said:

MikeL said:

PlatoSaid said:

Centrica have written pro-Remain to their 37k staff - Sky

These letters might not seem very important because the number of people receiving each one is tiny compared to the electorate as a whole.

But they all add up - and if the result is very tight then if they cumulatively move even one or two hundred thousand votes they could make a difference.

Again, it smacks of the Establishment looking patrician at best, desperate to cling onto their power at worst.

In many cases, I expect the response will be "Fuck you, Boss, I'm voting Leave...."

Seems to me a large part of the Leave motivation is "Fuck you" to everybody. Fair enough, people have that prerogative. What will stick in my craw is any subsequent moaning and whingeing from the same people if it goes tits up - the one thing that absolutely nobody can claim in this referendum is that they were not warned about what the possible consequences of Brexit. If people still want to go ahead that's their decision but any buyer's remorse is going to fall on deaf ears.

And what sort of tits up do you expect , Mr. T? Someone, and I am sorry I forget who, said on where this morning that the FTSE could fall, by 10%, the value of my house could drop by 10% and my income could drop by 10%. Well, I have been through all of those in the past, and worse, and each time I have survived. I am not prepared to be scared by such stories.

Goldman Sachs say we must stay in else financial and economic armageddon will descend on us. The chairman of JCB say we can not only survive but thrive. Which would you say is more worthy of belief?

I was thinking more in terms of workers at Nissan, Centrica, Airbus saying "fuck you" to the bosses (as MarqueeMark put it) and voting Leave. Fine if they do but if Brexit ultimately means they lose their jobs sympathy will be thin on the ground.

f

I understand your point of view, but I am less convinced by the idea that Centrica will leave the UK (after all it is British Gas under another name), or indeed Nissan and Airbus for that matter. We heard all the same stories in late nineties when the debate was whether we should join the Euro.

HYUFD said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

HYUFD said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

The maths are awful for Remain. As I said this morning.

Electorate 46 Million

NI, Scotland, London = 10 Million

Wales and Rest of England = 36 Million.

Even if Scotland/NI/London vote 70-30 remain a 55.5-44.5 leave vote in Rest of England is enough.

Outside the university cities like Oxford, Norwich, Exeter and a few other Cities like Brighton & Manchester (city not greater) where will the votes for Remain come from?

Sorry but Remain have had it.

Rubbish, the Kent poll posted earlier showed Remain winning Tunbridge Wells, Tonbridge and Malling, Sevenoaks, Canterbury and Gravesham. Yes Leave won more Kent seats overall but results like that should be enough to keep Leave under 55% across England even if it wins a majority in England thus allowing Scotland and London to give Remain a narrow lead across the UK

And I will raise you with remain wont get anywhere near the 70% worst case I assumed in those places. Probably nearer 60-40

I will also argue Leave will be much nearer 50% than 55% in England and Wales if they break 50% at all, in Scotland Remain will certainly get more than 60%

AlastairMeeks said:

@DavidL I don't think a Leave vote would be the end of days. It would be less important for the decision itself and more important for how the decision had been made.

It would be a terrible blow to the essential decency of this nation, a blow against openness to the outside world and a blow against any rational weighing of evidence. It would mean that xenophobic playing on public fears had been successful. It would mean that the confederacy of dunces tallied over 50% of the voting public. All that would be a terrible indictment of the British people.

I would be fearful for the future of the country, given the many entirely unnecessary risks that Britain would now be running, but more than that I would feel a deep sense of shame for the bad way in which my country had made a bad decision. I expect that one way or another Britain would make the best of a bad job if it voted to Leave, but it would be a bad job.

tlg86 said:

Casino_Royale said:

DavidL said:

I have consistently said that I expected Remain to win and frankly expected them to win fairly easily given all the advantages that they had.

Now, at the end of days (according to Alastair at least) I have changed my mind. I think Leave are going to win. Just. Or Remain. Not sure. Yeah, Leave. 52:48.

Gulp.

Don't think so.

Got an awful feeling Ruth is going to get the better of Boris tonight.

How is she going to go down? How many people in England will know who she is? Is there not a danger she'll sound like another Scot telling us what to do? She'd be wise not to say "vote to stay in or Scotland might leave the UK."

Starfall said:

This is what I thought a week ago, before Remain waited less than a day to use the murder of an MP as a campaign tool. You should see the leaflet below, which states "the death of Jo Cox is just the start" if the other side wins. Both sides have thoroughly trashed any trace of decency they have. You can not pretend our side has the moral high ground any more.

Lowlander said:

taffys said:

I note you start with "If the UK prospers". That is a big if.

Really??

I would suggest that history is overwhelmingly against you.

When, in the last 10 centuries of freedom and independence has England/Britain NOT prospered, relatively?

The only time she had to survive as a free trading nation - between 1945 and 1975. Before then she prospered down the barrel of a gun, since 1975 she's been in the EU. Her only period trying to fend for herself, did not go very well.

Of course, its much more complex than that but it's one answer to the question.

chestnut said:

Latest Northern Ireland Poll : Remain 57.8 Leave 42.2

http://lucidtalk.co.uk/images/News/LTJuneTrackerPollResults-MainReportPublic.pdf

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

HYUFD said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

HYUFD said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

The maths are awful for Remain. As I said this morning.

Electorate 46 Million

NI, Scotland, London = 10 Million

Wales and Rest of England = 36 Million.

Even if Scotland/NI/London vote 70-30 remain a 55.5-44.5 leave vote in Rest of England is enough.

Outside the university cities like Oxford, Norwich, Exeter and a few other Cities like Brighton & Manchester (city not greater) where will the votes for Remain come from?

Sorry but Remain have had it.

Rubbish, the Kent poll posted earlier showed Remain winning Tunbridge Wells, Tonbridge and Malling, Sevenoaks, Canterbury and Gravesham. Yes Leave won more Kent seats overall but results like that should be enough to keep Leave under 55% across England even if it wins a majority in England thus allowing Scotland and London to give Remain a narrow lead across the UK

And I will raise you with remain wont get anywhere near the 70% worst case I assumed in those places. Probably nearer 60-40

I will also argue Leave will be much nearer 50% than 55% in England and Wales if they break 50% at all, in Scotland Remain will certainly get more than 60%

Scotland I agree, but NI and London will bring down the average.

If you think rest of england and wales excl london will get below 50% you are being very optimistic to say the least.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

AlastairMeeks said:

@DavidL I don't think a Leave vote would be the end of days. It would be less important for the decision itself and more important for how the decision had been made.

It would be a terrible blow to the essential decency of this nation, a blow against openness to the outside world and a blow against any rational weighing of evidence. It would mean that xenophobic playing on public fears had been successful. It would mean that the confederacy of dunces tallied over 50% of the voting public. All that would be a terrible indictment of the British people.

I would be fearful for the future of the country, given the many entirely unnecessary risks that Britain would now be running, but more than that I would feel a deep sense of shame for the bad way in which my country had made a bad decision. I expect that one way or another Britain would make the best of a bad job if it voted to Leave, but it would be a bad job.

Naught but VAPID BILGE from an out-of-touch, metropolitan lawyer!

OllyT said:

HurstLlama said:

OllyT said:

HurstLlama said:

OllyT said:

MarqueeMark said:

MikeL said:

PlatoSaid said:

Centrica have written pro-Remain to their 37k staff - Sky

These letters might not seem very important because the number of people receiving each one is tiny compared to the electorate as a whole.

But they all add up - and if the result is very tight then if they cumulatively move even one or two hundred thousand votes they could make a difference.

Again, it smacks of the Establishment looking patrician at best, desperate to cling onto their power at worst.

In many cases, I expect the response will be "Fuck you, Boss, I'm voting Leave...."

Seems to me a large part of the Leave motivation is "Fuck you" to everybody. Fair enough, people have that prerogative. What will stick in my craw is any subsequent moaning and whingeing from the same people if it goes tits up - the one thing that absolutely nobody can claim in this referendum is that they were not warned about what the possible consequences of Brexit. If people still want to go ahead that's their decision but any buyer's remorse is going to fall on deaf ears.

And what sort of tits up do you expect , Mr. T? Someone, and I am sorry I forget who, said on where this morning that the FTSE could fall, by 10%, the value of my house could drop by 10% and my income could drop by 10%. Well, I have been through all of those in the past, and worse, and each time I have survived. I am not prepared to be scared by such stories.

Goldman Sachs say we must stay in else financial and economic armageddon will descend on us. The chairman of JCB say we can not only survive but thrive. Which would you say is more worthy of belief?

I was thinking more in terms of workers at Nissan, Centrica, Airbus saying "fuck you" to the bosses (as MarqueeMark put it) and voting Leave. Fine if they do but if Brexit ultimately means they lose their jobs sympathy will be thin on the ground.

f

I understand your point of view, but I am less convinced by the idea that Centrica will leave the UK (after all it is British Gas under another name), or indeed Nissan and Airbus for that matter. We heard all the same stories in late nineties when the debate was whether we should join the Euro.

I don't know either, I hope not, I was really trying to point out to MarqueeMark that it might people feel great to stick 2 fingers up to everybody and they have a perfect right to do so so long as they are prepared to accept any subsequent consequences.

HYUFD said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

HYUFD said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

HYUFD said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

The maths are awful for Remain. As I said this morning.

Electorate 46 Million

NI, Scotland, London = 10 Million

Wales and Rest of England = 36 Million.

Even if Scotland/NI/London vote 70-30 remain a 55.5-44.5 leave vote in Rest of England is enough.

Outside the university cities like Oxford, Norwich, Exeter and a few other Cities like Brighton & Manchester (city not greater) where will the votes for Remain come from?

Sorry but Remain have had it.

Rubbish, the Kent poll posted earlier showed Remain winning Tunbridge Wells, Tonbridge and Malling, Sevenoaks, Canterbury and Gravesham. Yes Leave won more Kent seats overall but results like that should be enough to keep Leave under 55% across England even if it wins a majority in England thus allowing Scotland and London to give Remain a narrow lead across the UK

And I will raise you with remain wont get anywhere near the 70% worst case I assumed in those places. Probably nearer 60-40

I will also argue Leave will be much nearer 50% than 55% in England and Wales if they break 50% at all, in Scotland Remain will certainly get more than 60%

Scotland I agree, but NI and London will bring down the average.

If you think rest of england and wales excl london will get below 50% you are being very optimistic to say the least.

Including London England and Wales may well be under 50% Leave , excluding London I would agree it will probably be above 50% Leave but still not above 55%

SouthamObserver said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

AlastairMeeks said:

@DavidL I don't think a Leave vote would be the end of days. It would be less important for the decision itself and more important for how the decision had been made.

It would be a terrible blow to the essential decency of this nation, a blow against openness to the outside world and a blow against any rational weighing of evidence. It would mean that xenophobic playing on public fears had been successful. It would mean that the confederacy of dunces tallied over 50% of the voting public. All that would be a terrible indictment of the British people.

I would be fearful for the future of the country, given the many entirely unnecessary risks that Britain would now be running, but more than that I would feel a deep sense of shame for the bad way in which my country had made a bad decision. I expect that one way or another Britain would make the best of a bad job if it voted to Leave, but it would be a bad job.

Naught but VAPID BILGE from an out-of-touch, metropolitan lawyer!

So speaks a subsidy junkie.

DavidL said:

The cricket is looking grim. What has happened to Root?

HYUFD said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

HYUFD said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

HYUFD said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

The maths are awful for Remain. As I said this morning.

Electorate 46 Million

NI, Scotland, London = 10 Million

Wales and Rest of England = 36 Million.

Even if Scotland/NI/London vote 70-30 remain a 55.5-44.5 leave vote in Rest of England is enough.

Outside the university cities like Oxford, Norwich, Exeter and a few other Cities like Brighton & Manchester (city not greater) where will the votes for Remain come from?

Sorry but Remain have had it.

Rubbish, the Kent poll posted earlier showed Remain winning Tunbridge Wells, Tonbridge and Malling, Sevenoaks, Canterbury and Gravesham. Yes Leave won more Kent seats overall but results like that should be enough to keep Leave under 55% across England even if it wins a majority in England thus allowing Scotland and London to give Remain a narrow lead across the UK

And I will raise you with remain wont get anywhere near the 70% worst case I assumed in those places. Probably nearer 60-40

I will also argue Leave will be much nearer 50% than 55% in England and Wales if they break 50% at all, in Scotland Remain will certainly get more than 60%

Scotland I agree, but NI and London will bring down the average.

If you think rest of england and wales excl london will get below 50% you are being very optimistic to say the least.

Including London England and Wales may well be under 50% Leave , excluding London I would agree it will probably be above 50% Leave but still not above 55%

TheScreamingEagles said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

The maths are awful for Remain. As I said this morning.

Electorate 46 Million

NI, Scotland, London = 10 Million

Wales and Rest of England = 36 Million.

Even if Scotland/NI/London vote 70-30 remain a 55.5-44.5 leave vote in Rest of England is enough.

Outside the university cities like Oxford, Norwich, Exeter and a few other Cities like Brighton & Manchester (city not greater) where will the votes for Remain come from?

Sorry but Remain have had it.

'Kin hell, even IOS would blush at the hubris you're displaying.

Hubris? I was being kind and working on 100% turnout.

If you want hubris plug the yougov age/turnout figures in and it gets even worse for remain.


maths dosent lie

You wrote Sorry but Remain have had it.

Considering your hyperbole the other day that 27% of the electorate have already voted for Leave by post, I'm finding your posts really funny.

Charles said:

Remember Stuart Truth

*innocent face*

taffys said:

The papers are all over the Queen's three questions

Is this getting serious?