politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Four of the last pollsters to report have LEAVE doing bette

Charles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

@Charles Count yourself lucky that I wear trousers.

Given that I always turn right on airplanes, I doubt I'd see you anyway

You must be the pilot

Wait.. surely you always turn left?

Philip_Thompson said:

So if they own it I assume he's planning his resignation?

I haven't heard Gove's announcement yet

Richard_Tyndall said:

Roger said:

COMPLETELY OT. A couple of years ago a poster on here posted regular articles by Christopher Booker who specialized in stories about how the state took children from families for no reason other than malice and caused families no end of heartache.

He made a career out of writing these stories for the Telegraph.

A very good friend of mine who is head of a social services department In London told me that his articles were invariably inaccurate and dangerous. Social services didn't take children away on a whim. It was never done other than in the direst circumstances.

What's more social workers couldn't speak up because of the necessity of confidentiality. So his inaccuracies couldn't be refuted. Todays case is just such an example.

I don't know whether Booker or even my friend's borough were involved but it shows what happens when press campaign's replace considered thought by people who genuinely care and know what they're doing.

Very poor show Roger. This is ons case out of many thousands which are decided in secret and with no public oversight to ensure justice. I too know social workers and they hate ghd law as it stands and what they see as a fundamentally flawed system. This one case does nothing beyond exposing your bias.

As someone who worked in child protection, managed social workers, trained social workers, spent hours in family court pursuing child protection cases....it is not the most perfect system to be sure, but it wouldn't surprise you to hear, that I agree 100% with Roger on this one.

Scott_P said:

Philip_Thompson said:

So if they own it I assume he's planning his resignation?

I haven't heard Gove's announcement yet

Why should he? He's not saying he'll take no responsibility for his department if Remain wins.

Fenster said:

I was just thinking while doing my work that Cameron - and I like Cameron, and think he is by far the Tories' best asset - looked today like a politician who has realised that shit's your thanks in politics.

I like to try to see things from the other point of view, and here is a PM that has offered the people votes on AV, Scottish Independence and now EU membership. Can I imagine Blair or Brown ever being brave enough to do that? Ha - no chance.

And the consequence of Cameron's democratic unselfishness? He looks to me like a tired, fed-up, pissed-off, slightly desperate man who wishes he was sat on a beach holiday with his family somewhere and had never taken up politics in the first place.

I know we should never feel sympathy for any politician and I still hope LEAVE wins on Thursday (though I think the chances are negligible) but I have to say, being a politician - especially a leading politician - is a tough old job, and I actually felt for Cameron today.

Yes, the poor man must be exhausted - not through fear of failure and defeat, but simply through hours put in. Still, at least he can put his feet up in a few weeks, content in the knowledge that the post-Brexit misery he was warning everyone about will be Boris's problem.

Philip_Thompson said:

Why should he?

Because only Michael Gove knows the future. Or the present...

SeanT said:

The REMAINIACS on my Twitter stream are wetting their nylon gussets about... John Barnes, just like you.

Calm down dear. It's funny.

SeanT said:

Scott_P said:

@DPJHodges: John Barnes may think he's backing Remain. But what does he know? Michael Gove knows better.

The REMAINIACS on my Twitter stream are wetting their nylon gussets about... John Barnes, just like you.

It's embarrassing. They are clearly desperate, and scared. Whodathunk.

Point of order. Aren't gussets almost always cotton or cotton/polyester?

RobD said:

Charles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

@Charles Count yourself lucky that I wear trousers.

Given that I always turn right on airplanes, I doubt I'd see you anyway

You must be the pilot

Wait.. surely you always turn left?

Nah - when it comes to spending money on myself, economy's just fine...

Just when you think the bar cannot go any lower.

http://order-order.com/2016/06/21/remain-leaflet-blames-leave-jo-coxs-murder-start/

Predictions anyone.

I'm going for 50:50 and a turnout of 64%. I honestly cannot call it for either side. Anti politics and immigration are a toxic brew.......

Charles said:

RobD said:

Charles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

@Charles Count yourself lucky that I wear trousers.

Given that I always turn right on airplanes, I doubt I'd see you anyway

You must be the pilot

Wait.. surely you always turn left?

Nah - when it comes to spending money on myself, economy's just fine...

Agreed when it's your own money!

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Mortimer said:

I wonder if DC got advance hearing of that HMQ article? Might go to explain his strange podium appearance.

What day does he see HMQ?

June 24th I believe, if all goes well - the motorcade may be televised.

tyson said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Roger said:

COMPLETELY OT. A couple of years ago a poster on here posted regular articles by Christopher Booker who specialized in stories about how the state took children from families for no reason other than malice and caused families no end of heartache.

He made a career out of writing these stories for the Telegraph.

A very good friend of mine who is head of a social services department In London told me that his articles were invariably inaccurate and dangerous. Social services didn't take children away on a whim. It was never done other than in the direst circumstances.

What's more social workers couldn't speak up because of the necessity of confidentiality. So his inaccuracies couldn't be refuted. Todays case is just such an example.

I don't know whether Booker or even my friend's borough were involved but it shows what happens when press campaign's replace considered thought by people who genuinely care and know what they're doing.

Very poor show Roger. This is ons case out of many thousands which are decided in secret and with no public oversight to ensure justice. I too know social workers and they hate ghd law as it stands and what they see as a fundamentally flawed system. This one case does nothing beyond exposing your bias.

As someone who worked in child protection, managed social workers, trained social workers, spent hours in family court pursuing child protection cases....it is not the most perfect system to be sure, but it wouldn't surprise you to hear, that I agree 100% with Roger on this one.

Of course you do. You both think that the state is the ultimate expression of human endeavour

I rather think some lefty Remainers may come to regret their insistence that Leave=Xenophobic Racism.

When, within the decade, the single European Health Service is launched, I can't quite see cheering on the left hand side of the Labour Party for the forced introduction of mix mode (public & private) provision....

If remain win, the above will be the next trigger for another in/out referendum, IMHO.

Voting remain, by the way

I think HMQ has, once again, subtly entered into a referendum and for LEAVE Gawd love her.

Charles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

@Charles Count yourself lucky that I wear trousers.

Given that I always turn right on airplanes, I doubt I'd see you anyway

9/10 for that sublime put-down due to your unfortunate misspelling of 'aeroplanes'.

Farage has been an idiot with that poster.

He should have focused on sovereignty and draped himself in the Union Jack 24/7 during the campaign, talking about how great Britain is and our potential.

That way, if LEAVE won, he could re-unite with the Tories having achieved his life's ambition.
If REMAIN won, he would be able to present UKIP as a patriotic party for disaffected LEAVE-voting Tories, which would have particular power as soon as any more nasty plans come out of the EU.

As it is he is going down the "Mr 15%" route

SeanT said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. T, that may simply be because Remain has something to lose, so they're naturally more worried about what will happen.

That said, beware of confusing Twitter for the UK.

Oh of course. But it's blindingly obvious that the commentariat is having proper conniptions. They never imagined it would ever be this close.

Similar cries of pain can be heard from Brussels, Berlin, etc. Good. Even if REMAIN wins (still the most likely outcome) these people will have been given the scare of their lives.

And what do you think will be the effect of that scare, Mr. T? Carry on as before or change to take into account the growing unrest and dissatisfaction with the EU that is breaking out across Europe? My money is on the former. They will take the vote as a sign they can carry on, the only change they might make is to try and ensure they are never frightened again.

Luckyguy1983 said:

I think HMQ has, once again, subtly entered into a referendum and for LEAVE Gawd love her.

Charles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

@Charles Count yourself lucky that I wear trousers.

Given that I always turn right on airplanes, I doubt I'd see you anyway

9/10 for that sublime put-down due to your unfortunate misspelling of 'aeroplanes'.

Luckyguy1983 prefers "самолеты"

tyson said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Roger said:

COMPLETELY OT. A couple of years ago a poster on here posted regular articles by Christopher Booker who specialized in stories about how the state took children from families for no reason other than malice and caused families no end of heartache.

He made a career out of writing these stories for the Telegraph.

A very good friend of mine who is head of a social services department In London told me that his articles were invariably inaccurate and dangerous. Social services didn't take children away on a whim. It was never done other than in the direst circumstances.

What's more social workers couldn't speak up because of the necessity of confidentiality. So his inaccuracies couldn't be refuted. Todays case is just such an example.

I don't know whether Booker or even my friend's borough were involved but it shows what happens when press campaign's replace considered thought by people who genuinely care and know what they're doing.

Very poor show Roger. This is ons case out of many thousands which are decided in secret and with no public oversight to ensure justice. I too know social workers and they hate ghd law as it stands and what they see as a fundamentally flawed system. This one case does nothing beyond exposing your bias.

As someone who worked in child protection, managed social workers, trained social workers, spent hours in family court pursuing child protection cases....it is not the most perfect system to be sure, but it wouldn't surprise you to hear, that I agree 100% with Roger on this one.

The "experts" always believe they are right, and only they are qualified to judge.

I think it quite improbable that either Roger or yourself would agree with the common police view on the Stephen Lawrence case, or the Birmingham 6... or the Guildford 4

Or with the RAF on the Mull of Kintyre crash.

etc etc..

All agencies need outside oversight.

DavidL said:

I have consistently said that I expected Remain to win and frankly expected them to win fairly easily given all the advantages that they had.

Now, at the end of days (according to Alastair at least) I have changed my mind. I think Leave are going to win. Just. Or Remain. Not sure. Yeah, Leave. 52:48.

Gulp.

In a referendum on immigration - which this is - the side promising to reduce it will always win.

Richard_Tyndall said:

tyson said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Roger said:

COMPLETELY OT. A couple of years ago a poster on here posted regular articles by Christopher Booker who specialized in stories about how the state took children from families for no reason other than malice and caused families no end of heartache.

He made a career out of writing these stories for the Telegraph.

A very good friend of mine who is head of a social services department In London told me that his articles were invariably inaccurate and dangerous. Social services didn't take children away on a whim. It was never done other than in the direst circumstances.

What's more social workers couldn't speak up because of the necessity of confidentiality. So his inaccuracies couldn't be refuted. Todays case is just such an example.

I don't know whether Booker or even my friend's borough were involved but it shows what happens when press campaign's replace considered thought by people who genuinely care and know what they're doing.

Very poor show Roger. This is ons case out of many thousands which are decided in secret and with no public oversight to ensure justice. I too know social workers and they hate ghd law as it stands and what they see as a fundamentally flawed system. This one case does nothing beyond exposing your bias.

As someone who worked in child protection, managed social workers, trained social workers, spent hours in family court pursuing child protection cases....it is not the most perfect system to be sure, but it wouldn't surprise you to hear, that I agree 100% with Roger on this one.

Of course you do. You both think that the state is the ultimate expression of human endeavour

Social workers merely police the line set by democratically elected Govt's.

I have to say, the Tories are much better in understanding how social workers should operate than Labour.

tyson said:

Predictions anyone.

I'm going for 50:50 and a turnout of 64%. I honestly cannot call it for either side. Anti politics and immigration are a toxic brew.......

Have to go with the polls, which is Leave slightly ahead., with a slight reversion to the status quo. So a Remain result is just a tiny bit more likely than a Leave result. That doesn't mean 51/49. It could be 55/45 either way.

5% higher turnout than the GE, giving 71%.

Mr. L, the octo-lemur have asserted that will be the result, but I can't be sure whether they're taking the piss of not.

I still think Remain will win.

tyson said:

Predictions anyone.

I'm going for 50:50 and a turnout of 64%. I honestly cannot call it for either side. Anti politics and immigration are a toxic brew.......

Big turnout - say 72%.

54% leave.

Pro_Rata said:

GarethoftheVale2 said:

MikeL said:

Is there a list of counting areas by size of electorate?

Are there any individual counting areas large enough to really move the overall total on their own once a decent number of results are in?

England: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_English_districts_by_population
Scotland: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Scottish_council_areas_by_population
Wales https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Welsh_principal_areas_by_population
NI https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_districts_in_Northern_Ireland_by_population

Obviously these are the total populations and the electorates are smaller but it should give you an idea. Birmingham is the biggest and should be remain.

Cornwall and Durham are larger councils that should be good for leave

The voting model I've seen (whose source I forget momentarily), actually has Birmingham as a narrow leave! Also, as I understand, NI will be reporting as a single area, so would be the largest counting area, but results will be coming in quite fast at that point.

The important thing will be to put your FPTP head away for the night. The dead heat par scores predict Leave would win twice as many counting areas, but smaller ones.

To work out which seats lean Remain or Leave look at the UKIP score at the last election. Presuming Remain and Leave are exactly tied across the country if the UKIP score was less than the 12.7% UKIP got nationally then the seat should vote Remain and if UKIP got more than it got nationally in the seat then it should vote Leave

Just on Boris, he was asked if he would apologise. He could hardly refuse, could he?

Luckyguy1983 said:

I think HMQ has, once again, subtly entered into a referendum and for LEAVE Gawd love her.

Did anyone think she would really be wanting the people to effectively abolish her kingdom and make it a province of a supranational republic?

We have heard much from Cameroon dripping wet tories about Nudge Theory.

HMQ has just given them a masterclass in how to do it, as she did before the Scottish Referendum.

GOD SAVE THE QUEEN!

SeanT said:

DavidL said:

I have consistently said that I expected Remain to win and frankly expected them to win fairly easily given all the advantages that they had.

Now, at the end of days (according to Alastair at least) I have changed my mind. I think Leave are going to win. Just. Or Remain. Not sure. Yeah, Leave. 52:48.

Gulp.

PS how do you think BREXIT would play out in Scotland?

I think Sturgeon is bluffing. She won't call indyref 2 on the basis of a future iScotland joining the EU because that really WOULD mean frontiers at Berwick and a true currency nightmare. so even if she could negotiate the legal obstacles to a second vote (very hard as the UK would at the same time be thrashing out its own EU divorce) she'd likely lose her next referendum, too.

But I have called Scottish politics wrong, in the recent past. And she would be under severe pressure from frothier Nats to stage another plebiscite.

I think she will look to play long. She will say that we need to wait to see what deal that the UK gets and whether it remains a part of the Single Market or not. She will also want to see if the oil price improves although I fear that ship has sailed.

Brexit creates a whole new set of problems for Sindy. England remains by far our largest market and we need a single market with England far, far more than we do with rEU. Nicola will not want another referendum unless she is very sure she is going to win and the polling on that at the moment is bad.

But you are right. The pressure on her would be severe.

RobD said:

Pro_Rata said:

GarethoftheVale2 said:

MikeL said:

Is there a list of counting areas by size of electorate?

Are there any individual counting areas large enough to really move the overall total on their own once a decent number of results are in?

England: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_English_districts_by_population
Scotland: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Scottish_council_areas_by_population
Wales https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Welsh_principal_areas_by_population
NI https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_districts_in_Northern_Ireland_by_population

Obviously these are the total populations and the electorates are smaller but it should give you an idea. Birmingham is the biggest and should be remain.

Cornwall and Durham are larger councils that should be good for leave

The voting model I've seen (whose source I forget momentarily), actually has Birmingham as a narrow leave! Also, as I understand, NI will be reporting as a single area, so would be the largest counting area, but results will be coming in quite fast at that point.

The important thing will be to put your FPTP head away for the night. The dead heat par scores predict Leave would win twice as many counting areas, but smaller ones.

Should we also expect remain to do well in the first few declarations, as they tend to be geographically smaller (urban)

Not necessarily, Sunderland should vote Leave while the Western Isles should vote Remain.

HurstLlama said:

SeanT said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. T, that may simply be because Remain has something to lose, so they're naturally more worried about what will happen.

That said, beware of confusing Twitter for the UK.

Oh of course. But it's blindingly obvious that the commentariat is having proper conniptions. They never imagined it would ever be this close.

Similar cries of pain can be heard from Brussels, Berlin, etc. Good. Even if REMAIN wins (still the most likely outcome) these people will have been given the scare of their lives.

And what do you think will be the effect of that scare, Mr. T? Carry on as before or change to take into account the growing unrest and dissatisfaction with the EU that is breaking out across Europe? My money is on the former. They will take the vote as a sign they can carry on, the only change they might make is to try and ensure they are never frightened again.

I blame the Lib Dems - if they had agreed to a referendum during the last government... probably a 60:40 remain.

It is interesting to hear those who believe the mistake was having a referendum - this is the precisely the concept of the EU which is causing it to be despised. "We are the experts, and you are not worthy to interfere, with your silly voting nonsense".

The only way to win such things is to offer the choice - anyone think that denying an Indy ref for Scotland would have worked?

PlatoSaid said:

Electoral Commission
46.4m voters on electoral register, two million more than December 2015, reports Electoral Commission

Though exactly the same as GE 2015 (to nearest 0.1m).

GE 2015 electorate = 46,420k

OllyT said:

MarqueeMark said:

MikeL said:

PlatoSaid said:

Centrica have written pro-Remain to their 37k staff - Sky

These letters might not seem very important because the number of people receiving each one is tiny compared to the electorate as a whole.

But they all add up - and if the result is very tight then if they cumulatively move even one or two hundred thousand votes they could make a difference.

Again, it smacks of the Establishment looking patrician at best, desperate to cling onto their power at worst.

In many cases, I expect the response will be "Fuck you, Boss, I'm voting Leave...."

Seems to me a large part of the Leave motivation is "Fuck you" to everybody. Fair enough, people have that prerogative. What will stick in my craw is any subsequent moaning and whingeing from the same people if it goes tits up - the one thing that absolutely nobody can claim in this referendum is that they were not warned about what the possible consequences of Brexit. If people still want to go ahead that's their decision but any buyer's remorse is going to fall on deaf ears.

Because they feel their elected betters have said "Fuck you" to the voters, time after time.

Many of these people feel that they have no meaningful say on things that matter to them. Things such as migration into their country. Rightly so. They have been howled down as "racists" by a political elite for whom that is easier than entering into a reasoned debate.

Now they have a chance to stick it to the Man. Don't be surprised if they take that chance. Yes, it may be nihilistic. But hell, it will feel SO DAMNED GOOD.

SeanT said:

DavidL said:

I have consistently said that I expected Remain to win and frankly expected them to win fairly easily given all the advantages that they had.

Now, at the end of days (according to Alastair at least) I have changed my mind. I think Leave are going to win. Just. Or Remain. Not sure. Yeah, Leave. 52:48.

Gulp.

PS how do you think BREXIT would play out in Scotland?

I think Sturgeon is bluffing. She won't call indyref 2 on the basis of a future iScotland joining the EU because that really WOULD mean frontiers at Berwick and a true currency nightmare. so even if she could negotiate the legal obstacles to a second vote (very hard as the UK would at the same time be thrashing out its own EU divorce) she'd likely lose her next referendum, too.

But I have called Scottish politics wrong, in the recent past. And she would be under severe pressure from frothier Nats to stage another plebiscite.

Remain will win in Scotland but I expect the turn out to be low.

Charles said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

I think HMQ has, once again, subtly entered into a referendum and for LEAVE Gawd love her.

Charles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

@Charles Count yourself lucky that I wear trousers.

Given that I always turn right on airplanes, I doubt I'd see you anyway

9/10 for that sublime put-down due to your unfortunate misspelling of 'aeroplanes'.

A life time spent with Americans has to have some side effects I suppose

Deepest sympathies.

MarkHopkins said:

OllyT said:

Scott_P said:

OllyT said:

any buyer's remorse is going to fall on deaf ears.

Not so.

Boris has promised to apologise on live TV if it all goes tits up.

Which is nice...

Very noble of him considering he won't be the one that's affected by it.

Most of the rich guys pushing for Remain aren't affected by it.

True but they will not be the one's responsible for it either.

SeanT said:

DavidL said:

I have consistently said that I expected Remain to win and frankly expected them to win fairly easily given all the advantages that they had.

Now, at the end of days (according to Alastair at least) I have changed my mind. I think Leave are going to win. Just. Or Remain. Not sure. Yeah, Leave. 52:48.

Gulp.

PS how do you think BREXIT would play out in Scotland?

I think Sturgeon is bluffing. She won't call indyref 2 on the basis of a future iScotland joining the EU because that really WOULD mean frontiers at Berwick and a true currency nightmare. so even if she could negotiate the legal obstacles to a second vote (very hard as the UK would at the same time be thrashing out its own EU divorce) she'd likely lose her next referendum, too.

But I have called Scottish politics wrong, in the recent past. And she would be under severe pressure from frothier Nats to stage another plebiscite.

In terms of Scottish Independence, a Brexit vote puts Unionists in a rather difficult situation. They need to hope that the fallout post Leave is bad enough to confirm their dire warnings. If it is not, and I think it will be relatively benign, then the likelihood of another Project Fear working in a second Indyref becomes very unlikely.

That's not good for the Establishment. Hope the economy tanks or accept Scotland goes her own way. A poorer Britain or a broken Britain, if you will.

Two big plus points, if we do leave, is that we'll never need to hear the linguistic monstrosities of "Brexit" or "Bremain" ever again.

On the other hand, if Sweden has a referendum, we could be in for even more aurally offensive terms.

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

I think HMQ has, once again, subtly entered into a referendum and for LEAVE Gawd love her.

Did anyone think she would really be wanting the people to effectively abolish her kingdom and make it a province of a supranational republic?

We have heard much from Cameroon dripping wet tories about Nudge Theory.

HMQ has just given them a masterclass in how to do it, as she did before the Scottish Referendum.

GOD SAVE THE QUEEN!

People - give Her Majesty her country back! (I'm sure Sunil can organise for this to be the Sun's Thursday front-page story.....)

DavidL said:

I think she will look to play long. She will say that we need to wait to see what deal that the UK gets and whether it remains a part of the Single Market or not. She will also want to see if the oil price improves although I fear that ship has sailed.

Brexit creates a whole new set of problems for Sindy. England remains by far our largest market and we need a single market with England far, far more than we do with rEU. Nicola will not want another referendum unless she is very sure she is going to win and the polling on that at the moment is bad.

But you are right. The pressure on her would be severe.

Brexit only causes problems for Independence if the dire warnings turn out to have any merit. If the economy does not collapse, those who claimed the experts were talking nonsense will be proven right and that will be a massive boost for Independence.

HurstLlama said:

OllyT said:

MarqueeMark said:

MikeL said:

PlatoSaid said:

Centrica have written pro-Remain to their 37k staff - Sky

These letters might not seem very important because the number of people receiving each one is tiny compared to the electorate as a whole.

But they all add up - and if the result is very tight then if they cumulatively move even one or two hundred thousand votes they could make a difference.

Again, it smacks of the Establishment looking patrician at best, desperate to cling onto their power at worst.

In many cases, I expect the response will be "Fuck you, Boss, I'm voting Leave...."

Seems to me a large part of the Leave motivation is "Fuck you" to everybody. Fair enough, people have that prerogative. What will stick in my craw is any subsequent moaning and whingeing from the same people if it goes tits up - the one thing that absolutely nobody can claim in this referendum is that they were not warned about what the possible consequences of Brexit. If people still want to go ahead that's their decision but any buyer's remorse is going to fall on deaf ears.

And what sort of tits up do you expect , Mr. T? Someone, and I am sorry I forget who, said on where this morning that the FTSE could fall, by 10%, the value of my house could drop by 10% and my income could drop by 10%. Well, I have been through all of those in the past, and worse, and each time I have survived. I am not prepared to be scared by such stories.

Goldman Sachs say we must stay in else financial and economic armageddon will descend on us. The chairman of JCB say we can not only survive but thrive. Which would you say is more worthy of belief?

You may well be able to cope with a 10% fall in income, many others won't. And should it be across the board, that means significantly less tax take, which also means higher borrowing, higher taxes and more cuts. Again, the people most affected will be those at the bottom who Boris and Mike are supposed to be speaking for these days, having completely ignored them up to now.

Lowlander said:

SeanT said:

DavidL said:

I have consistently said that I expected Remain to win and frankly expected them to win fairly easily given all the advantages that they had.

Now, at the end of days (according to Alastair at least) I have changed my mind. I think Leave are going to win. Just. Or Remain. Not sure. Yeah, Leave. 52:48.

Gulp.

PS how do you think BREXIT would play out in Scotland?

I think Sturgeon is bluffing. She won't call indyref 2 on the basis of a future iScotland joining the EU because that really WOULD mean frontiers at Berwick and a true currency nightmare. so even if she could negotiate the legal obstacles to a second vote (very hard as the UK would at the same time be thrashing out its own EU divorce) she'd likely lose her next referendum, too.

But I have called Scottish politics wrong, in the recent past. And she would be under severe pressure from frothier Nats to stage another plebiscite.

In terms of Scottish Independence, a Brexit vote puts Unionists in a rather difficult situation. They need to hope that the fallout post Leave is bad enough to confirm their dire warnings. If it is not, and I think it will be relatively benign, then the likelihood of another Project Fear working in a second Indyref becomes very unlikely.

That's not good for the Establishment. Hope the economy tanks or accept Scotland goes her own way. A poorer Britain or a broken Britain, if you will.

At the moment I think it is a shade more likely England votes Leave and the UK Remain than Scotland votes Remain and the UK Leave

MarqueeMark said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

I think HMQ has, once again, subtly entered into a referendum and for LEAVE Gawd love her.

Did anyone think she would really be wanting the people to effectively abolish her kingdom and make it a province of a supranational republic?

We have heard much from Cameroon dripping wet tories about Nudge Theory.

HMQ has just given them a masterclass in how to do it, as she did before the Scottish Referendum.

GOD SAVE THE QUEEN!

People - give Her Majesty her country back! (I'm sure Sunil can organise for this to be the Sun's Thursday front-page story.....)

"It was The Sunil wot won it" - I hope

MikeL said:

PlatoSaid said:

Electoral Commission
46.4m voters on electoral register, two million more than December 2015, reports Electoral Commission

Though exactly the same as GE 2015 (to nearest 0.1m).

GE 2015 electorate = 46,420k

Indeed,

https://www.twitter.com/EuroGuido/status/745301017177243648

Am I the only one thinking the turnout is being overblown a bit? As far as I see it I'm not sure turnout is going to be much higher than the GE, if that.

SeanT said:

SouthamObserver said:

SeanT said:

HurstLlama said:

SeanT said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. T, that may simply be because Remain has something to lose, so they're naturally more worried about what will happen.

That said, beware of confusing Twitter for the UK.

Oh of course. But it's blindingly obvious that the commentariat is having proper conniptions. They never imagined it would ever be this close.

Similar cries of pain can be heard from Brussels, Berlin, etc. Good. Even if REMAIN wins (still the most likely outcome) these people will have been given the scare of their lives.

And what do you think will be the effect of that scare, Mr. T? Carry on as before or change to take into account the growing unrest and dissatisfaction with the EU that is breaking out across Europe? My money is on the former. They will take the vote as a sign they can carry on, the only change they might make is to try and ensure they are never frightened again.

Yes, possibly so. But at least they will have been scared, once. Better than never.

Also I think you might be wrong. I've no doubt the eurocrats will try and carry on as if nothing has happened, but national politicians will come under intense pressure from their own populists - Wilders, Le Pen, the Swedish Democrats, the True Finns, et al. Brexit would shake everything up.

Yep, spot on. There was a poll in Holland yesterday giving a majority to Nexit. Politicians just cannot ignore that kind of thing.

I've just spent a week in Calabria. It was great fun, coz I had a nice time in the sun, for free, but, fuck me, the Mezzogiorno - Calabria especially - is in dire straits. Parts of it feel poorer than North Africa.

I know the problems of southern Italy long predate the euro and even the EU. But the euro and the EU have not helped. Europe needs shaking up. It is failing too many of its citizens, very badly.

Brexit might just do that. Of course it might not. But maybe Fate is ready to roll the dice.

The problem with Southern Italy is that the North of Italy is so rich - and thus Italy has to pay towards the EU - rather than helping the South. (Italy's net contribution is very similar to the UK's)

SeanT said:

DavidL said:

I have consistently said that I expected Remain to win and frankly expected them to win fairly easily given all the advantages that they had.

Now, at the end of days (according to Alastair at least) I have changed my mind. I think Leave are going to win. Just. Or Remain. Not sure. Yeah, Leave. 52:48.

Gulp.

PS how do you think BREXIT would play out in Scotland?

I think Sturgeon is bluffing. She won't call indyref 2 on the basis of a future iScotland joining the EU because that really WOULD mean frontiers at Berwick and a true currency nightmare. so even if she could negotiate the legal obstacles to a second vote (very hard as the UK would at the same time be thrashing out its own EU divorce) she'd likely lose her next referendum, too.

But I have called Scottish politics wrong, in the recent past. And she would be under severe pressure from frothier Nats to stage another plebiscite.

This article from Alex Bellexplains the practical difficulties in Scotland negotiating to join the EU at the same time as the UK is leaving it. Well worth a read.

Having said that, constitutional change tends to happen at times of disruption and all the SNP need is 51% of the vote to be in favour. Voters don't have to know what they are doing (the EUref is a case in point) .

Alex Bell was SNP's Director of Policy but left due to the frustration of them not actually having policies and seems to have fallen out with their leadership and direction.

Luckyguy1983 said:

SeanT said:

DavidL said:

I have consistently said that I expected Remain to win and frankly expected them to win fairly easily given all the advantages that they had.

Now, at the end of days (according to Alastair at least) I have changed my mind. I think Leave are going to win. Just. Or Remain. Not sure. Yeah, Leave. 52:48.

Gulp.

PS how do you think BREXIT would play out in Scotland?

I think Sturgeon is bluffing. She won't call indyref 2 on the basis of a future iScotland joining the EU because that really WOULD mean frontiers at Berwick and a true currency nightmare. so even if she could negotiate the legal obstacles to a second vote (very hard as the UK would at the same time be thrashing out its own EU divorce) she'd likely lose her next referendum, too.

But I have called Scottish politics wrong, in the recent past. And she would be under severe pressure from frothier Nats to stage another plebiscite.

Remain will win in Scotland but I expect the turn out to be low.

Charles said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

I think HMQ has, once again, subtly entered into a referendum and for LEAVE Gawd love her.

Charles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

@Charles Count yourself lucky that I wear trousers.

Given that I always turn right on airplanes, I doubt I'd see you anyway

9/10 for that sublime put-down due to your unfortunate misspelling of 'aeroplanes'.

A life time spent with Americans has to have some side effects I suppose

Deepest sympathies.

That's the downside of my family hailing from Nashville, I suppose...

Although I do enjoy the company of my Californian wife.

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

The maths are awful for Remain. As I said this morning.

Electorate 46 Million

NI, Scotland, London = 10 Million

Wales and Rest of England = 36 Million.

Even if Scotland/NI/London vote 70-30 remain a 55.5-44.5 leave vote in Rest of England is enough.

Outside the university cities like Oxford, Norwich, Exeter and a few other Cities like Brighton & Manchester (city not greater) where will the votes for Remain come from?

Sorry but Remain have had it.

Rubbish, the Kent poll posted earlier showed Remain winning Tunbridge Wells, Tonbridge and Malling, Sevenoaks, Canterbury and Gravesham. Yes Leave won more Kent seats overall but results like that should be enough to keep Leave under 55% across England even if it wins a majority in England thus allowing Scotland and London to give Remain a narrow lead across the UK

brokenwheel said:

MikeL said:

PlatoSaid said:

Electoral Commission
46.4m voters on electoral register, two million more than December 2015, reports Electoral Commission

Though exactly the same as GE 2015 (to nearest 0.1m).

GE 2015 electorate = 46,420k

Indeed,

https://www.twitter.com/EuroGuido/status/745301017177243648

Am I the only one thinking the turnout is being overblown a bit? As far as I see it I'm not sure turnout is going to be much higher than the GE, if that.

Given that turnout estimates range from under GE to a bit more, not sure anyone is in danger of overcooking this...

SouthamObserver said:

HurstLlama said:

OllyT said:

MarqueeMark said:

MikeL said:

PlatoSaid said:

Centrica have written pro-Remain to their 37k staff - Sky

These letters might not seem very important because the number of people receiving each one is tiny compared to the electorate as a whole.

But they all add up - and if the result is very tight then if they cumulatively move even one or two hundred thousand votes they could make a difference.

Again, it smacks of the Establishment looking patrician at best, desperate to cling onto their power at worst.

In many cases, I expect the response will be "Fuck you, Boss, I'm voting Leave...."

Seems to me a large part of the Leave motivation is "Fuck you" to everybody. Fair enough, people have that prerogative. What will stick in my craw is any subsequent moaning and whingeing from the same people if it goes tits up - the one thing that absolutely nobody can claim in this referendum is that they were not warned about what the possible consequences of Brexit. If people still want to go ahead that's their decision but any buyer's remorse is going to fall on deaf ears.

And what sort of tits up do you expect , Mr. T? Someone, and I am sorry I forget who, said on where this morning that the FTSE could fall, by 10%, the value of my house could drop by 10% and my income could drop by 10%. Well, I have been through all of those in the past, and worse, and each time I have survived. I am not prepared to be scared by such stories.

Goldman Sachs say we must stay in else financial and economic armageddon will descend on us. The chairman of JCB say we can not only survive but thrive. Which would you say is more worthy of belief?

You may well be able to cope with a 10% fall in income, many others won't. And should it be across the board, that means significantly less tax take, which also means higher borrowing, higher taxes and more cuts. Again, the people most affected will be those at the bottom who Boris and Mike are supposed to be speaking for these days, having completely ignored them up to now.

Sorry, Mr. O., but when my income dropped by a damn sight more than 10%, I could not afford it either (in 1995 my wife and I went through a period in which we had a disposable income of £20 per month and a two year old toddler). There is nothing that is being threatened that I haven't lived through before. I see no reason to be scared by the stories being put about.