politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Four of the last pollsters to report have LEAVE doing bette
Comments
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Thanks a lot!GarethoftheVale2 said:
England: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_English_districts_by_populationMikeL said:Is there a list of counting areas by size of electorate?
Are there any individual counting areas large enough to really move the overall total on their own once a decent number of results are in?
Scotland: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Scottish_council_areas_by_population
Wales https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Welsh_principal_areas_by_population
NI https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_districts_in_Northern_Ireland_by_population
Obviously these are the total populations and the electorates are smaller but it should give you an idea. Birmingham is the biggest and should be remain.
Cornwall and Durham are larger councils that should be good for leave0 -
Not understanding your response?weejonnie said:
People seem to keep forgetting that even if the vote was 100%-0 Leave then on 24th June we would still be in the EU, trading with the EU on the same terms as on the 23rd and subject to the same rules, regulations and membership fees.Charles said:
Down 8-10% on Brexit (possibly more intraday with a bounce back). Make it around $1.30 as a floor. Probably back north of $1.40 within a month (possibly shorter)tyson said:
It was a round robin, sent I guess to many clients.john_zims said:@tyson
'My currency trader has just sent out a circular to say the markets are going to go bonkers on Friday- expect a 10-15% fall on Brexit, but remain impact is unknown. Doesn't know if it's price in already or what.'
He doesn't seem to know much,thought about getting a decent trader ?
Anyone, in pb land. If we go remain, what will be the impact on sterling?
May be a slight bounce on Remain, but not much. Doubt it will have sustained hold above $1.50 although it may test that level.
All quotes in cable.
I am not a currency trader. Do your own research.
Of course that will NOT apply on the 25th as the EU starts unrolling its held-up legislative and financial plans for the future.
Doesn't seem relevant to my post.0 -
One of the few compensations there will be in a Leave vote (apart from my new black - yes black - British passport) is in knowing it will be a total sickener for all the EU gravy train people I have met over the last few years while travelling around Europe. They are about to get one hell of a kicking and I do think it will change a lot of things to their detriment - just as a very narrow Remain win would have done.0
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A declining working age population and the effects of the Hartz reforms played a big part too. From the German perspective it doesn't seem obvious that their low unemployment is all down to the Euro.rcs1000 said:
German unemployment is at a 25 year low because they are members of the Eurozone. They'd like it to stay together, but with the minimum risk of them being handed the bill.Sandpit said:
But why would the Germans at the Dutch be in favour of that?rcs1000 said:
Not all, you would have French government bonds that were issued with the Eurobond stamp, and those that were not. It's not a gazillion miles different from when the US government chose to guarantee certain Mexican government bonds.Sandpit said:
Surely they would have to be issued centrally, with provision for repayment from the EU budget? These things would be much easier if all EU countries used the Euro.rcs1000 said:
Given they are being guaranteed at a supranational level, it's a very good question. It would also be interesting to know how cross default provisions would work.Pulpstar said:
Would the Eurobonds be pari passu or have first charge status in the event of default ?rcs1000 said:
The whole point would be that you could only issue Eurobonds (to give them a name) up to 60% of GDP. Anything about that would Spanish Government Bonds, or whatever.taffys said:Both those things would be easier with us not in the EU.
A central eurozone bond market. The Southern states getting hold of Germany's credit card. Should be fun.0 -
''German unemployment is at a 25 year low because they are members of the Eurozone. They'd like it to stay together, but with the minimum risk of them being handed the bill.''
Germany's currency is artificially low. That of other countries in the Eurozone is artificially high. Whichever way you slice it, that is a recipe for trouble.0 -
I don't think you achieve a great deal with this.rcs1000 said:
The Eurozone needs to do a couple of things:
1. It needs to complete a banking union, with a Eurozone wide deposit insurance scheme.
2. It needs to implement a (limited) central Eurozone bond market, which has joint and several liability among the EZ countries for debts covering (say) the first 60% of GDP. Anything issued in excess of the 60% mark would have no central backing.
Both those things would be easier with us not in the EU.
The insurance scheme in part exists. Make it simpler yes, add new stuff no.
With your EZbonds you're just shuffling risk. It's just an invisible tax on the more creditworthy nations.
Having a single currency generally means you should have one central bank and one government. Greece indulging themselves in having opinionated finance ministers spouting all sorts of rubbish isn't a good idea at all for example.
I don't know how the Swiss manage their (very small) borrowings, but perhaps there's something to be learned there.
Any system that produces a very sharp change over a small boundary will have problems.
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Online would be a great way to add to the visualisations, if needed, without them crowding them out.Jobabob said:
Correct.Casino_Royale said:
I really don't know why the BBC run their election programmes like they are talking to primary school children.TudorRose said:
I particularly hated the paving stones to No 10 last year. What's wrong with a good old-fashioned list?Sandpit said:
Yes, they do seem to regularly misjudge the audience for these programs. While they may have a general cross sectional audience up until about 1am, those watching all night are going to be either involved in the election in some way or be politics geeks interested in statistics rather than dodgy graphics.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Sandpit, I hope this time they have the rather good Sophie Raworth actually presenting in the studio rather than exiled to the exterior with a map of Britain specially designed to patronise an audience interested enough in politics to be watching it at 3am.
There are also far too many spinning politicians talking rubbish and not enough analysis of the numbers and results with psephologists.
I do however think the lack of early results has encouraged the "talking head" mentality whereby we are treated to a two hour discussion of everything everyone's either heard before or isn't interested in.
Harriet Harman sounding not at all surprised by the exit polls was a good one though
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It's not all down to the Euro. But I don't think it's an outrageous claim that the DM would be a lot stronger than the Euro, and therefore German exports would lower.williamglenn said:
A declining working age population and the effects of the Hartz reforms played a big part too. From the German perspective it doesn't seem obvious that their low unemployment is all down to the Euro.rcs1000 said:
German unemployment is at a 25 year low because they are members of the Eurozone. They'd like it to stay together, but with the minimum risk of them being handed the bill.Sandpit said:
But why would the Germans at the Dutch be in favour of that?rcs1000 said:
Not all, you would have French government bonds that were issued with the Eurobond stamp, and those that were not. It's not a gazillion miles different from when the US government chose to guarantee certain Mexican government bonds.Sandpit said:
Surely they would have to be issued centrally, with provision for repayment from the EU budget? These things would be much easier if all EU countries used the Euro.rcs1000 said:
Given they are being guaranteed at a supranational level, it's a very good question. It would also be interesting to know how cross default provisions would work.Pulpstar said:
Would the Eurobonds be pari passu or have first charge status in the event of default ?rcs1000 said:
The whole point would be that you could only issue Eurobonds (to give them a name) up to 60% of GDP. Anything about that would Spanish Government Bonds, or whatever.taffys said:Both those things would be easier with us not in the EU.
A central eurozone bond market. The Southern states getting hold of Germany's credit card. Should be fun.0 -
It will probably be a black English passport.SouthamObserver said:One of the few compensations there will be in a Leave vote (apart from my new black - yes black - British passport) is in knowing it will be a total sickener for all the EU gravy train people I have met over the last few years while travelling around Europe. They are about to get one hell of a kicking and I do think it will change a lot of things to their detriment - just as a very narrow Remain win would have done.
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It's not outrageous no, but your premise also depends on them feeling they need to do something dramatic to keep it together. Germany's policy in the Greek crisis shows the limits of what they are prepared to do, and also how strong the attachment to the Euro is among states which are in financial trouble.rcs1000 said:
It's not all down to the Euro. But I don't think it's an outrageous claim that the DM would be a lot stronger than the Euro, and therefore German exports would lower.williamglenn said:
A declining working age population and the effects of the Hartz reforms played a big part too. From the German perspective it doesn't seem obvious that their low unemployment is all down to the Euro.0 -
It would give some comfort to think that a 51-49 Remain win would be treated as a Final Written Warning from the UK to the EU. But in reality - a win is a win is a win will be their view. Now, UK, grasp your ankles and assume the position....Casino_Royale said:If the objective of the British electorate was to shit-the-pants of the EU, and shake the U.K. Government to its complacent core, whilst delivering the narrowest possible Remain vote, so far, it looks like they are succeeding.
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@patrickwintour: Sarkozy meets Merkel and calls for a Franco-German push for a new EU Treaty to respond to UK referendum.0
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Not immediately. Hopefully, we'll get the opportunity to changeover asap. I'd like one.Jonathan said:
It will probably be a black English passport.SouthamObserver said:One of the few compensations there will be in a Leave vote (apart from my new black - yes black - British passport) is in knowing it will be a total sickener for all the EU gravy train people I have met over the last few years while travelling around Europe. They are about to get one hell of a kicking and I do think it will change a lot of things to their detriment - just as a very narrow Remain win would have done.
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Twat and soon to be ex-Tory.Floater said:
That is repugnant.TheScreamingEagles said:
He posted a link to the Jo Cox donation page, and announced he had just donated the steam from his piss.RobD said:
What did they say?TheScreamingEagles said:Looks like a Tory councillor has ensured the Jo Cox story takes a new angle
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It showed the limits of what the Germans were prepared to do based on what the Greeks were prepared to do.williamglenn said:
It's not outrageous no, but your premise also depends on them feeling they need to do something dramatic to keep it together. Germany's policy in the Greek crisis shows the limits of what they are prepared to do.rcs1000 said:
It's not all down to the Euro. But I don't think it's an outrageous claim that the DM would be a lot stronger than the Euro, and therefore German exports would lower.williamglenn said:
A declining working age population and the effects of the Hartz reforms played a big part too. From the German perspective it doesn't seem obvious that their low unemployment is all down to the Euro.
If the Greeks were prepared to go bust the Germans may have done something else, but the Germans knew they held all the cards and the Greeks had to fold.0 -
The deposit insurance is guaranteed by national governments. As bank and sovereign risk is highly correlated, I think you need it to be across the EZ. (This is the best way to stop Target-2 capital flight.)Omnium said:
I don't think you achieve a great deal with this.rcs1000 said:
The Eurozone needs to do a couple of things:
1. It needs to complete a banking union, with a Eurozone wide deposit insurance scheme.
2. It needs to implement a (limited) central Eurozone bond market, which has joint and several liability among the EZ countries for debts covering (say) the first 60% of GDP. Anything issued in excess of the 60% mark would have no central backing.
Both those things would be easier with us not in the EU.
The insurance scheme in part exists. Make it simpler yes, add new stuff no.
With your EZbonds you're just shuffling risk. It's just an invisible tax on the more creditworthy nations.
Having a single currency generally means you should have one central bank and one government. Greece indulging themselves in having opinionated finance ministers spouting all sorts of rubbish isn't a good idea at all for example.
I don't know how the Swiss manage their (very small) borrowings, but perhaps there's something to be learned there.
Any system that produces a very sharp change over a small boundary will have problems.0 -
Centrica have written pro-Remain to their 37k staff - Sky0
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Yep, that seems pretty inarguable. Although the Germans do make a lot of very high-quality stuff that people would buy anyway. It's one of the benefits of long-term investment by their businesses. They get to charge a premium price.rcs1000 said:
It's not all down to the Euro. But I don't think it's an outrageous claim that the DM would be a lot stronger than the Euro, and therefore German exports would lower.williamglenn said:
A declining working age population and the effects of the Hartz reforms played a big part too. From the German perspective it doesn't seem obvious that their low unemployment is all down to the Euro.rcs1000 said:
German unemployment is at a 25 year low because they are members of the Eurozone. They'd like it to stay together, but with the minimum risk of them being handed the bill.Sandpit said:
But why would the Germans at the Dutch be in favour of that?rcs1000 said:
Not all, you would have French government bonds that were issued with the Eurobond stamp, and those that were not. It's not a gazillion miles different from when the US government chose to guarantee certain Mexican government bonds.Sandpit said:
Surely they would have to be issued centrally, with provision for repayment from the EU budget? These things would be much easier if all EU countries used the Euro.rcs1000 said:
Given they are being guaranteed at a supranational level, it's a very good question. It would also be interesting to know how cross default provisions would work.Pulpstar said:
Would the Eurobonds be pari passu or have first charge status in the event of default ?rcs1000 said:
The whole point would be that you could only issue Eurobonds (to give them a name) up to 60% of GDP. Anything about that would Spanish Government Bonds, or whatever.taffys said:Both those things would be easier with us not in the EU.
A central eurozone bond market. The Southern states getting hold of Germany's credit card. Should be fun.
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He needs kicking out of the party before it hits headlines , preferably with a literal kickSlackbladder said:
what an utter odious t*** that guy must be.Floater said:
That is repugnant.TheScreamingEagles said:
He posted a link to the Jo Cox donation page, and announced he had just donated the steam from his piss.RobD said:
What did they say?TheScreamingEagles said:Looks like a Tory councillor has ensured the Jo Cox story takes a new angle
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William Hague - The Leave campaign is really the Donald Trump campaign with better hair. Talk about pots and kettles!Floater said:0 -
"Her Majesty's biographer, Robert Lacey, reported the Queen's comments and suggested they may mean the Queen favours withdrawal from the European Union."Floater said:
Celebrity endorsements -
Remain: David Beckham
Leave: H. M. the Queen
How d'yer like dem apples, Remain?0 -
The Germans tried to persuade the Greeks to leave the Eurozone!Philip_Thompson said:
It showed the limits of what the Germans were prepared to do based on what the Greeks were prepared to do.williamglenn said:
It's not outrageous no, but your premise also depends on them feeling they need to do something dramatic to keep it together. Germany's policy in the Greek crisis shows the limits of what they are prepared to do.rcs1000 said:
It's not all down to the Euro. But I don't think it's an outrageous claim that the DM would be a lot stronger than the Euro, and therefore German exports would lower.williamglenn said:
A declining working age population and the effects of the Hartz reforms played a big part too. From the German perspective it doesn't seem obvious that their low unemployment is all down to the Euro.
If the Greeks were prepared to go bust the Germans may have done something else, but the Germans knew they held all the cards and the Greeks had to fold.0 -
I agree but, being a pedant, wasn't it dark navy blue?SouthamObserver said:One of the few compensations there will be in a Leave vote (apart from my new black - yes black - British passport) is in knowing it will be a total sickener for all the EU gravy train people I have met over the last few years while travelling around Europe. They are about to get one hell of a kicking and I do think it will change a lot of things to their detriment - just as a very narrow Remain win would have done.
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I don't think a narrow Remain win will cause any issues for the EU and those people riding the gravy train at all. They will take it as a vote of confidence in the EU and press on regardless.SouthamObserver said:One of the few compensations there will be in a Leave vote (apart from my new black - yes black - British passport) is in knowing it will be a total sickener for all the EU gravy train people I have met over the last few years while travelling around Europe. They are about to get one hell of a kicking and I do think it will change a lot of things to their detriment - just as a very narrow Remain win would have done.
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Precisely. They see the Euro as a means of enforcing political discipline. If it isn't hurting, it isn't working, to quote a great British statesman.rcs1000 said:
The Germans tried to persuade the Greeks to leave the Eurozone!Philip_Thompson said:
It showed the limits of what the Germans were prepared to do based on what the Greeks were prepared to do.williamglenn said:
It's not outrageous no, but your premise also depends on them feeling they need to do something dramatic to keep it together. Germany's policy in the Greek crisis shows the limits of what they are prepared to do.rcs1000 said:
It's not all down to the Euro. But I don't think it's an outrageous claim that the DM would be a lot stronger than the Euro, and therefore German exports would lower.williamglenn said:
A declining working age population and the effects of the Hartz reforms played a big part too. From the German perspective it doesn't seem obvious that their low unemployment is all down to the Euro.
If the Greeks were prepared to go bust the Germans may have done something else, but the Germans knew they held all the cards and the Greeks had to fold.0 -
Mine always looked black, but I didn't look too closely. I got two before they were cruelly snatched away. I probably still have them somewhere and a few one year ones I also got.Casino_Royale said:
I agree but, being a pedant, wasn't it dark navy blue?SouthamObserver said:One of the few compensations there will be in a Leave vote (apart from my new black - yes black - British passport) is in knowing it will be a total sickener for all the EU gravy train people I have met over the last few years while travelling around Europe. They are about to get one hell of a kicking and I do think it will change a lot of things to their detriment - just as a very narrow Remain win would have done.
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These letters might not seem very important because the number of people receiving each one is tiny compared to the electorate as a whole.PlatoSaid said:Centrica have written pro-Remain to their 37k staff - Sky
But they all add up - and if the result is very tight then if they cumulatively move even one or two hundred thousand votes they could make a difference.0 -
Give Her Majesty the perfect 90th birthday present - Her country back!
Do your patriotic duty on Thursday. Vote LEAVE.
(oh, if only....!!)0 -
I never liked the old black passports. They didn't fit conveniently in my front trouser pocket.0
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Mr. Tyndall, quite. Winner's winning whether it's by an inch or a mile.0
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Hopefully a fully two speed Europe...Scott_P said:@patrickwintour: Sarkozy meets Merkel and calls for a Franco-German push for a new EU Treaty to respond to UK referendum.
AND A NEW REFERENDUM OF COURSE0 -
No, I think either way it emboldens Euro-sceptic voices in other northern EU member states. yesterday a poll in the Netherlands had a possible Nexit in front of remaining inside the EU.Richard_Tyndall said:
I don't think a narrow Remain win will cause any issues for the EU and those people riding the gravy train at all. They will take it as a vote of confidence in the EU and press on regardless.SouthamObserver said:One of the few compensations there will be in a Leave vote (apart from my new black - yes black - British passport) is in knowing it will be a total sickener for all the EU gravy train people I have met over the last few years while travelling around Europe. They are about to get one hell of a kicking and I do think it will change a lot of things to their detriment - just as a very narrow Remain win would have done.
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Well we should be able to see any VI effect very quickly and easily with Sunderland/Nissan.MikeL said:
These letters might not seem very important because the number of people receiving each one is tiny compared to the electorate as a whole.PlatoSaid said:Centrica have written pro-Remain to their 37k staff - Sky
But they all add up - and if the result is very tight then if they cumulatively move even one or two hundred thousand votes they could make a difference.0 -
They size has since been standardised. We'd never go back to having an unusually sized passport.AlastairMeeks said:I never liked the old black passports. They didn't fit conveniently in my front trouser pocket.
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Don't worry. If Brexit wins, Steve Hilton will probably trouser a fee for selling new Apple iPassports to the UK government. We'll be more Californian than the Californians.AlastairMeeks said:I never liked the old black passports. They didn't fit conveniently in my front trouser pocket.
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So if we LEAVE HMQ will be puuuuuuuuuurrrrrrrring down the phone to Boris?Floater said:
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Would be typical if we voted to Remain, but caused everyone else to naff off.SouthamObserver said:
No, I think either way it emboldens Euro-sceptic voices in other northern EU member states. yesterday a poll in the Netherlands had a possible Nexit in front of remaining inside the EU.Richard_Tyndall said:
I don't think a narrow Remain win will cause any issues for the EU and those people riding the gravy train at all. They will take it as a vote of confidence in the EU and press on regardless.SouthamObserver said:One of the few compensations there will be in a Leave vote (apart from my new black - yes black - British passport) is in knowing it will be a total sickener for all the EU gravy train people I have met over the last few years while travelling around Europe. They are about to get one hell of a kicking and I do think it will change a lot of things to their detriment - just as a very narrow Remain win would have done.
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@RobD And you're prepared to put with that level of serfdom?0
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You mean you don't wear a jacket when travelling?!AlastairMeeks said:I never liked the old black passports. They didn't fit conveniently in my front trouser pocket.
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Again, it smacks of the Establishment looking patrician at best, desperate to cling onto their power at worst.MikeL said:
These letters might not seem very important because the number of people receiving each one is tiny compared to the electorate as a whole.PlatoSaid said:Centrica have written pro-Remain to their 37k staff - Sky
But they all add up - and if the result is very tight then if they cumulatively move even one or two hundred thousand votes they could make a difference.
In many cases, I expect the response will be "Fuck you, Boss, I'm voting Leave...."0 -
Perhaps they could come in different sizes? Personally I'd like a big one - harder to misplace. But as with coins, governments always seem to make things smaller.AlastairMeeks said:I never liked the old black passports. They didn't fit conveniently in my front trouser pocket.
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@Charles Count yourself lucky that I wear trousers.0
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That'd be a bit OTT unless they demanded commitments - so long as staff are free to chuck the advice in the bin, I don't really see why the management shouldn't say what they think would benefit the company. Whether it will influnce many staff or even annoy them is another matter.TudorRose said:
I don't know why companies/organsations do this. Apart from patronising your workforce, one day someone's going to bring a bullying complaint to a Tribunal.PlatoSaid said:Centrica have written pro-Remain to their 37k staff - Sky
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Passport Pro. It's 11 glorious inches, costs £400 more and comes with a free pencil.FrankBooth said:
Perhaps they could come in different sizes? Personally I'd like a big one - harder to misplace. But as with coins, governments always seem to make things smaller.AlastairMeeks said:I never liked the old black passports. They didn't fit conveniently in my front trouser pocket.
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Ha, ha :-DCharles said:
You mean you don't wear a jacket when travelling?!AlastairMeeks said:I never liked the old black passports. They didn't fit conveniently in my front trouser pocket.
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Sounds like a brag?AlastairMeeks said:I never liked the old black passports. They didn't fit conveniently in my front trouser pocket.
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An implied commitment might be enough; We think you should vote X because otherwise jobs in your department would be at risk. The key to bullying is the use/abuse of power and people can feel under pressure without an explicit demand.NickPalmer said:
That'd be a bit OTT unless they demanded commitments - so long as staff are free to chuck the advice in the bin, I don't really see why the management shouldn't say what they think would benefit the company. Whether it will influnce many staff or even annoy them is another matter.TudorRose said:
I don't know why companies/organsations do this. Apart from patronising your workforce, one day someone's going to bring a bullying complaint to a Tribunal.PlatoSaid said:Centrica have written pro-Remain to their 37k staff - Sky
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I wonder if DC got advance hearing of that HMQ article? Might go to explain his strange podium appearance.0
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I didn't know the details. The first thing to be bailed out though would be bank accounts. If Italy went belly up then the ECB would fund some sort of recrediting of balances.rcs1000 said:
The deposit insurance is guaranteed by national governments. As bank and sovereign risk is highly correlated, I think you need it to be across the EZ. (This is the best way to stop Target-2 capital flight.)Omnium said:
I don't think you achieve a great deal with this.rcs1000 said:
The Eurozone needs to do a couple of things:
1. It needs to complete a banking union, with a Eurozone wide deposit insurance scheme.
2. It needs to implement a (limited) central Eurozone bond market, which has joint and several liability among the EZ countries for debts covering (say) the first 60% of GDP. Anything issued in excess of the 60% mark would have no central backing.
Both those things would be easier with us not in the EU.
The insurance scheme in part exists. Make it simpler yes, add new stuff no.
With your EZbonds you're just shuffling risk. It's just an invisible tax on the more creditworthy nations.
Having a single currency generally means you should have one central bank and one government. Greece indulging themselves in having opinionated finance ministers spouting all sorts of rubbish isn't a good idea at all for example.
I don't know how the Swiss manage their (very small) borrowings, but perhaps there's something to be learned there.
Any system that produces a very sharp change over a small boundary will have problems.
The government debt arrangements are clearly tricky.
The huge iceberg of all risks in this is pensions.0 -
Queen- I Want To Break Free:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f4Mc-NYPHaQ0 -
Don't see a problem with an outer looser ring and an inner federal core?SouthamObserver said:
No, I think either way it emboldens Euro-sceptic voices in other northern EU member states. yesterday a poll in the Netherlands had a possible Nexit in front of remaining inside the EU.Richard_Tyndall said:
I don't think a narrow Remain win will cause any issues for the EU and those people riding the gravy train at all. They will take it as a vote of confidence in the EU and press on regardless.SouthamObserver said:One of the few compensations there will be in a Leave vote (apart from my new black - yes black - British passport) is in knowing it will be a total sickener for all the EU gravy train people I have met over the last few years while travelling around Europe. They are about to get one hell of a kicking and I do think it will change a lot of things to their detriment - just as a very narrow Remain win would have done.
Gives European nations a choice and will keep both sides on their toes.0 -
AlastairMeeks said:
I never liked the old black passports. They didn't fit conveniently in my front trouser pocket.
Vapid bulge?
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Melanie Philips has a rather good Brexit article - 600 comments so far, mostly agreeing.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/were-choosing-between-freedom-and-serfdom-2m06g6vd20 -
Ah but it wasn't priest's socks black. There is nothing as black as priest's socks.SouthamObserver said:
Mine always looked black, but I didn't look too closely. I got two before they were cruelly snatched away. I probably still have them somewhere and a few one year ones I also got.Casino_Royale said:
I agree but, being a pedant, wasn't it dark navy blue?SouthamObserver said:One of the few compensations there will be in a Leave vote (apart from my new black - yes black - British passport) is in knowing it will be a total sickener for all the EU gravy train people I have met over the last few years while travelling around Europe. They are about to get one hell of a kicking and I do think it will change a lot of things to their detriment - just as a very narrow Remain win would have done.
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A rapid bulge given an IN vote, no doubt. (sorry)GIN1138 said:
Vapid bulge?AlastairMeeks said:I never liked the old black passports. They didn't fit conveniently in my front trouser pocket.
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GIN1138 said:AlastairMeeks said:
I never liked the old black passports. They didn't fit conveniently in my front trouser pocket.
Vapid bulge?
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No comment.
BBC Breaking News
UK MP Jo Cox was killed because of her strong political views, her widower Brendan tells BBC http://bbc.in/28LkxFM0 -
So leave is now supported by Mad Mel, Putin, Trump, Farage, and Katie Hopkins.0
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I think you would be very hard pushed to argue that the issues elsewhere in the Eurozone have not resulted in exchange rates far lower for Germany than they otherwise would be...rcs1000 said:
It's not all down to the Euro. But I don't think it's an outrageous claim that the DM would be a lot stronger than the Euro, and therefore German exports would lower.williamglenn said:
A declining working age population and the effects of the Hartz reforms played a big part too. From the German perspective it doesn't seem obvious that their low unemployment is all down to the Euro.rcs1000 said:
German unemployment is at a 25 year low because they are members of the Eurozone. They'd like it to stay together, but with the minimum risk of them being handed the bill.Sandpit said:
But why would the Germans at the Dutch be in favour of that?rcs1000 said:
Not all, you would have French government bonds that were issued with the Eurobond stamp, and those that were not. It's not a gazillion miles different from when the US government chose to guarantee certain Mexican government bonds.Sandpit said:
Surely they would have to be issued centrally, with provision for repayment from the EU budget? These things would be much easier if all EU countries used the Euro.rcs1000 said:
Given they are being guaranteed at a supranational level, it's a very good question. It would also be interesting to know how cross default provisions would work.Pulpstar said:
Would the Eurobonds be pari passu or have first charge status in the event of default ?rcs1000 said:
The whole point would be that you could only issue Eurobonds (to give them a name) up to 60% of GDP. Anything about that would Spanish Government Bonds, or whatever.taffys said:Both those things would be easier with us not in the EU.
A central eurozone bond market. The Southern states getting hold of Germany's credit card. Should be fun.0 -
Won't somebody think of the children?!
https://twitter.com/strongerin/status/745242979615420418
I'm a millennial remainer living in France but even I find this video both cringeworthy and extremely unconvincing0 -
How bad a day is Gove having when even this guy says he lied...
@BethRigby: John Barnes on @skynews now saying that Michael Gove is wrong and he DOES NOT support #voteleave.0 -
COMPLETELY OT. A couple of years ago a poster on here posted regular articles by Christopher Booker who specialized in stories about how the state took children from families for no reason other than malice and caused families no end of heartache.
He made a career out of writing these stories for the Telegraph.
A very good friend of mine who is head of a social services department In London told me that his articles were invariably inaccurate and dangerous. Social services didn't take children away on a whim. It was never done other than in the direst circumstances.
What's more social workers couldn't speak up because of the necessity of confidentiality. So his inaccuracies couldn't be refuted. Todays case is just such an example.
I don't know whether Booker or even my friend's borough were involved but it shows what happens when press campaign's replace considered thought by people who genuinely care and know what they're doing.0 -
@STJamesl: So this seems a bit of an own goal for Michael Gove....
@officialbarnesy for Bremain #SkyNews0 -
"The Queen has been canvassing opinion on the EU debate by asking dinner companions: "Give me three good reasons why Britain should be part of Europe."MarqueeMark said:Give Her Majesty the perfect 90th birthday present - Her country back!
Do your patriotic duty on Thursday. Vote LEAVE.
(oh, if only....!!)
Her Majesty's biographer, Robert Lacey, reported the Queen's comments and suggested they may mean the Queen favours withdrawal from the European Union."
Not a surprise. Why would she want to have presided over a loss of sovereignty during her reign? She was probably told that it was only a trade deal, as we all were told.0 -
Irish government has a plan for Brexit
Osborne doesn't
http://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/government-has-plan-b-if-britain-votes-to-quit-eu-on-thursday-taoiseach-34820483.html0 -
If the EU was all going well, I agree they could shake it off. But if they need a new treaty, they'll be very aware of what Britain's position is and how it will affect other countries with similar skepticism. I think the natural view of the Commission is towards a two speed Europe and this will confirm that.Casino_Royale said:
Don't see a problem with an outer looser ring and an inner federal core?SouthamObserver said:
No, I think either way it emboldens Euro-sceptic voices in other northern EU member states. yesterday a poll in the Netherlands had a possible Nexit in front of remaining inside the EU.Richard_Tyndall said:
I don't think a narrow Remain win will cause any issues for the EU and those people riding the gravy train at all. They will take it as a vote of confidence in the EU and press on regardless.SouthamObserver said:One of the few compensations there will be in a Leave vote (apart from my new black - yes black - British passport) is in knowing it will be a total sickener for all the EU gravy train people I have met over the last few years while travelling around Europe. They are about to get one hell of a kicking and I do think it will change a lot of things to their detriment - just as a very narrow Remain win would have done.
Gives European nations a choice and will keep both sides on their toes.0 -
They weren't black, but a dark blue.AlastairMeeks said:I never liked the old black passports. They didn't fit conveniently in my front trouser pocket.
I feel that I don't want your badge of membership to our nation to be so carelessly regarded as to fit into your front trouser pocket. As delightful as it may be in there.
The old British passports were absolutely great. 'Do you want to die today?' turns into 'The taxi will just be a minute or two'.
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Unless it is Father Jack's socks. Even for a priests socks, those were...Richard_Tyndall said:
Ah but it wasn't priest's socks black. There is nothing as black as priest's socks.SouthamObserver said:
Mine always looked black, but I didn't look too closely. I got two before they were cruelly snatched away. I probably still have them somewhere and a few one year ones I also got.Casino_Royale said:
I agree but, being a pedant, wasn't it dark navy blue?SouthamObserver said:One of the few compensations there will be in a Leave vote (apart from my new black - yes black - British passport) is in knowing it will be a total sickener for all the EU gravy train people I have met over the last few years while travelling around Europe. They are about to get one hell of a kicking and I do think it will change a lot of things to their detriment - just as a very narrow Remain win would have done.
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Very poor show Roger. This is ons case out of many thousands which are decided in secret and with no public oversight to ensure justice. I too know social workers and they hate ghd law as it stands and what they see as a fundamentally flawed system. This one case does nothing beyond exposing your bias.Roger said:COMPLETELY OT. A couple of years ago a poster on here posted regular articles by Christopher Booker who specialized in stories about how the state took children from families for no reason other than malice and caused families no end of heartache.
He made a career out of writing these stories for the Telegraph.
A very good friend of mine who is head of a social services department In London told me that his articles were invariably inaccurate and dangerous. Social services didn't take children away on a whim. It was never done other than in the direst circumstances.
What's more social workers couldn't speak up because of the necessity of confidentiality. So his inaccuracies couldn't be refuted. Todays case is just such an example.
I don't know whether Booker or even my friend's borough were involved but it shows what happens when press campaign's replace considered thought by people who genuinely care and know what they're doing.0 -
Oh dear
@BethRigby: On immigration issue, John Barnes says the scaremongering about EU citizens "is what we heard in the 60s/70s about black people"0 -
The voting model I've seen (whose source I forget momentarily), actually has Birmingham as a narrow leave! Also, as I understand, NI will be reporting as a single area, so would be the largest counting area, but results will be coming in quite fast at that point.GarethoftheVale2 said:
England: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_English_districts_by_populationMikeL said:Is there a list of counting areas by size of electorate?
Are there any individual counting areas large enough to really move the overall total on their own once a decent number of results are in?
Scotland: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Scottish_council_areas_by_population
Wales https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Welsh_principal_areas_by_population
NI https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_districts_in_Northern_Ireland_by_population
Obviously these are the total populations and the electorates are smaller but it should give you an idea. Birmingham is the biggest and should be remain.
Cornwall and Durham are larger councils that should be good for leave
The important thing will be to put your FPTP head away for the night. The dead heat par scores predict Leave would win twice as many counting areas, but smaller ones.0 -
Of course the government has a Plan B, it just doesn't want to admit it.Alanbrooke said:Irish government has a plan for Brexit
Osborne doesn't
http://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/government-has-plan-b-if-britain-votes-to-quit-eu-on-thursday-taoiseach-34820483.html0 -
Mr Dancer - Tick VG0
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Should we also expect remain to do well in the first few declarations, as they tend to be geographically smaller (urban)Pro_Rata said:
The voting model I've seen (whose source I forget momentarily), actually has Birmingham as a narrow leave! Also, as I understand, NI will be reporting as a single area, so would be the largest counting area, but results will be coming in quite fast at that point.GarethoftheVale2 said:
England: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_English_districts_by_populationMikeL said:Is there a list of counting areas by size of electorate?
Are there any individual counting areas large enough to really move the overall total on their own once a decent number of results are in?
Scotland: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Scottish_council_areas_by_population
Wales https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Welsh_principal_areas_by_population
NI https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_districts_in_Northern_Ireland_by_population
Obviously these are the total populations and the electorates are smaller but it should give you an idea. Birmingham is the biggest and should be remain.
Cornwall and Durham are larger councils that should be good for leave
The important thing will be to put your FPTP head away for the night. The dead heat par scores predict Leave would win twice as many counting areas, but smaller ones.0 -
Osborne announced it and the Brexiteers went apeshit.TheWhiteRabbit said:Of course the government has a Plan B, it just doesn't want to admit it.
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Is this finally the story from you that means LEAVE have lost?Scott_P said:How bad a day is Gove having when even this guy says he lied...
@BethRigby: John Barnes on @skynews now saying that Michael Gove is wrong and he DOES NOT support #voteleave.
Just asking. After all we have had more than 1,000 postings similar to this. But you may be right and Gove will be so mortified that he just gives up. What % results do your forecast from the actual vote in two days time?
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What day does he see HMQ?Mortimer said:I wonder if DC got advance hearing of that HMQ article? Might go to explain his strange podium appearance.
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Scott_P said:
Osborne announced it and the Brexiteers went apeshit.TheWhiteRabbit said:Of course the government has a Plan B, it just doesn't want to admit it.
That wasn't a plan; that was a threat.
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I don't think so, they did a GE poll which was the most accurate according to Wiki.rcs1000 said:
SurveyMonkey: a completely self selecting group, then.brokenwheel said:0 -
The emergency budget? I seriously doubt that'll be implemented even if we do vote leave.Scott_P said:
Osborne announced it and the Brexiteers went apeshit.TheWhiteRabbit said:Of course the government has a Plan B, it just doesn't want to admit it.
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It is. I'm voting Leave precisely because I want a democratic world for my kids where the powers-that-be are scared of us, the voter, not the other way round.Paristonda said:Won't somebody think of the children?!
https://twitter.com/strongerin/status/7452429796154204
I'm a millennial remainer living in France but even I find this video both cringeworthy and extremely unconvincing
Like how the EU is now, when it knows Brexit might win, compared to a few weeks ago when it was threatening to 'shoot' deserters, or some such.0 -
You can tell by the words Leave and lost in my post.TCPoliticalBetting said:Is this finally the story from you that means LEAVE have lost?
Oh, wait...
WTF are you drooling about?0 -
@PolhomeEditor: Michael Gove is going to be furious with whichever expert told him John Barnes was backing Brexit.0
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I always thought it was Tuesday and Friday around 5pm?TCPoliticalBetting said:
What day does he see HMQ?Mortimer said:I wonder if DC got advance hearing of that HMQ article? Might go to explain his strange podium appearance.
0 -
A healthy club is happy for members to both join and leave, listens to feedback, and always aims to improve accordingly.TheWhiteRabbit said:
If the EU was all going well, I agree they could shake it off. But if they need a new treaty, they'll be very aware of what Britain's position is and how it will affect other countries with similar skepticism. I think the natural view of the Commission is towards a two speed Europe and this will confirm that.Casino_Royale said:
Don't see a problem with an outer looser ring and an inner federal core?SouthamObserver said:
No, I think either way it emboldens Euro-sceptic voices in other northern EU member states. yesterday a poll in the Netherlands had a possible Nexit in front of remaining inside the EU.Richard_Tyndall said:
I don't think a narrow Remain win will cause any issues for the EU and those people riding the gravy train at all. They will take it as a vote of confidence in the EU and press on regardless.SouthamObserver said:One of the few compensations there will be in a Leave vote (apart from my new black - yes black - British passport) is in knowing it will be a total sickener for all the EU gravy train people I have met over the last few years while travelling around Europe. They are about to get one hell of a kicking and I do think it will change a lot of things to their detriment - just as a very narrow Remain win would have done.
Gives European nations a choice and will keep both sides on their toes.
Every time I am threatened it redoubles my determination to Leave.0 -
Morris_Dancer said:
Queen- I Want To Break Free:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f4Mc-NYPHaQ
Don't Go by Hothouse Flowers, the song of my freshers week
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3IiGjJLxLv00 -
@Omnium I feel that I don't want to be told by complete strangers how I should choose to carry my own passport. That sounds a damn sight closer to serfdom than anything in Melanie Phillips' fevered imagination.0
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Yes, wasn't the point about Booker's many articles on the subject that there was no oversight of the system, decisions were never allowed to be challenged, parents were kept in the dark about why their children had been removed and were not allowed to see the evidence against them - even when their children were being forcibly put up for adoption? That sounds like a police state, not a modern liberal democracy.Richard_Tyndall said:
Very poor show Roger. This is ons case out of many thousands which are decided in secret and with no public oversight to ensure justice. I too know social workers and they hate ghd law as it stands and what they see as a fundamentally flawed system. This one case does nothing beyond exposing your bias.Roger said:COMPLETELY OT. A couple of years ago a poster on here posted regular articles by Christopher Booker who specialized in stories about how the state took children from families for no reason other than malice and caused families no end of heartache.
He made a career out of writing these stories for the Telegraph.
A very good friend of mine who is head of a social services department In London told me that his articles were invariably inaccurate and dangerous. Social services didn't take children away on a whim. It was never done other than in the direst circumstances.
What's more social workers couldn't speak up because of the necessity of confidentiality. So his inaccuracies couldn't be refuted. Todays case is just such an example.
I don't know whether Booker or even my friend's borough were involved but it shows what happens when press campaign's replace considered thought by people who genuinely care and know what they're doing.0 -
There is, definitely, a new Eurosclerosis. The effect of utmost self confidence and the lack of feeling the consequences, plus being the doctor for your own ills. But for once I do think a shift in European thinking is likely in the next five to ten years.Casino_Royale said:
A healthy club is happy for members to both join and leave, listens to feedback, and always aims to improve accordingly.TheWhiteRabbit said:
If the EU was all going well, I agree they could shake it off. But if they need a new treaty, they'll be very aware of what Britain's position is and how it will affect other countries with similar skepticism. I think the natural view of the Commission is towards a two speed Europe and this will confirm that.Casino_Royale said:
Don't see a problem with an outer looser ring and an inner federal core?SouthamObserver said:
No, I think either way it emboldens Euro-sceptic voices in other northern EU member states. yesterday a poll in the Netherlands had a possible Nexit in front of remaining inside the EU.Richard_Tyndall said:
I don't think a narrow Remain win will cause any issues for the EU and those people riding the gravy train at all. They will take it as a vote of confidence in the EU and press on regardless.SouthamObserver said:One of the few compensations there will be in a Leave vote (apart from my new black - yes black - British passport) is in knowing it will be a total sickener for all the EU gravy train people I have met over the last few years while travelling around Europe. They are about to get one hell of a kicking and I do think it will change a lot of things to their detriment - just as a very narrow Remain win would have done.
Gives European nations a choice and will keep both sides on their toes.
Every time I am threatened it redoubles my determination to Leave.0 -
Given that I always turn right on airplanes, I doubt I'd see you anywayAlastairMeeks said:@Charles Count yourself lucky that I wear trousers.
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More remain (blue on the modelling) leaning councils earlier, but not necessarily the big hitters. Not immediately obvious to me whether this means an early Remain numerical lead set up to be whittled back:RobD said:
Should we also expect remain to do well in the first few declarations, as they tend to be geographically smaller (urban)Pro_Rata said:
The voting model I've seen (whose source I forget momentarily), actually has Birmingham as a narrow leave! Also, as I understand, NI will be reporting as a single area, so would be the largest counting area, but results will be coming in quite fast at that point.GarethoftheVale2 said:
England: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_English_districts_by_populationMikeL said:Is there a list of counting areas by size of electorate?
Are there any individual counting areas large enough to really move the overall total on their own once a decent number of results are in?
Scotland: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Scottish_council_areas_by_population
Wales https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Welsh_principal_areas_by_population
NI https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_districts_in_Northern_Ireland_by_population
Obviously these are the total populations and the electorates are smaller but it should give you an idea. Birmingham is the biggest and should be remain.
Cornwall and Durham are larger councils that should be good for leave
The important thing will be to put your FPTP head away for the night. The dead heat par scores predict Leave would win twice as many counting areas, but smaller ones.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1tRE59IkgeRREISpM75I8gR0MdkGe1diParW0hVO109Y/edit?pref=2&pli=1#gid=881507152
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I was just thinking while doing my work that Cameron - and I like Cameron, and think he is by far the Tories' best asset - looked today like a politician who has realised that shit's your thanks in politics.
I like to try to see things from the other point of view, and here is a PM that has offered the people votes on AV, Scottish Independence and now EU membership. Can I imagine Blair or Brown ever being brave enough to do that? Ha - no chance.
And the consequence of Cameron's democratic unselfishness? He looks to me like a tired, fed-up, pissed-off, slightly desperate man who wishes he was sat on a beach holiday with his family somewhere and had never taken up politics in the first place.
I know we should never feel sympathy for any politician and I still hope LEAVE wins on Thursday (though I think the chances are negligible) but I have to say, being a politician - especially a leading politician - is a tough old job, and I actually felt for Cameron today.0
