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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Four goods and a conclusion
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Four goods and a conclusion
Cyclefree says it is notable that few in the Remain camp have sought to make a positive case for the EU. So let me make some suggestions. (And no, this gives you no clue as to my vote.)
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Such a shame that the campaigns on both sides have been somewhat bereft of positives - what's wrong with making your case rather than just trashing the other side?
We've not heard enough from the likes of Daniel Hannan and Nick Clegg, who can at least make a positive case for their viewpoint. Gove and to some extent Cameron have tried, but it's been a 95% negative campaign. Maybe we get the politics and politicians we deserve.
Enjoy your holiday!
One thought though - the US is not a great example of a functioning federal state. For most of its first 150 years it was riven by violence, suffered from weak and divided central authority and constant bickering about who had the right to do what. The most famous example would be the Civil War, in which 210,000 died in the fighting and 420,000 died of disease - more than a quarter of all military age men in the South died.
It is not at all fanciful to foresee a similar catastrophe caused by the stresses and inequities of the euro, and if proportions of dead were similar, we would be talking about millions of casualties. So much for the ideals of federalism.
The point, as you rightly note, is that Europe needs reform. There is no way that will happen as long as the EU's governing class believe they can continue to impose their will regardless of the views of the European people, as they have up to now. Something dramatic needs to happen to jolt them out of their inadequacy and complacency.
The real irony is that the shock of Brexit might just provoke the EU into making the necessary reforms and saving itself, while if we stay in it is difficult to see it lasting much longer. Therefore there are not really any good outcomes that will suit everyone to this referendum.
Everything the remain leaders are doing indicates weary resignation.
The problem for Leave with trying the "democratic deficit" argument is that they are too easily knocked down by anyone in Remain who is not a Tory.
A lot of postal ballots have already been cast.
That happened at a time when Leave was surging.
They may well decide the referendum.
I still believe Leave will win.
If you want to reduce immigration - and this is a major priority for many, if not most - then there is only one way to cast your ballot.
A lot of people just don't get it.
Hope you get some nice photos to share, Miss Cyclefree. Did you know the Colosseum is partially made of concrete? The port at Ostia is too (the Romans found out how to make concrete which set underwater).
Now, to dispute your points:
1) This was almost certainly true in the past. But we're not in the 1950s. The EU isn't about stopping war in Europe (and the Bosnians and Ukraine might say it's somewhere between useless and harmful in this regard in the modern world), it's about bypassing national democracies to drag power from the accountable politicians of states to the deliberately complex and opaque bureaucracy of Brussels.
The idea the EU = Western civilisation would come as news to the Roman Empire, I am sure.
2) I agree federalism is not inherently evil. But the ends do not justify the means of ignoring referendum results, being deceitful to electorates and throwing funding at supposedly independent groups which then conclude more EU is the answer to every evil. If a federal EU were a good thing, why not make an honest case for it? Could it be that the little people can't be trusted?
3) Some things do require international co-operation. Counter-terrorism is a good example. Our closest partner here is the US. The Five Eyes group is ourselves, the US, Canada, New Zealand and Australia.
The EU is totally unnecessary for international co-operation. People who pretend otherwise presumably also believe a wedding is a prerequisite for sex.
4) I agree. However, a market of 65m or so which acts in British interests is better for us making trading deals that advantage the UK than a market of 500m for which we are just 8% of the consideration. A deal which helps Italy, Spain and Poland but screws us would make sense for the EU. But not for us.
Of course, Farage and his fellow travellers – Tory MPs Boris Johnson and Michael Gove, for example – maintain their campaign isn’t about race, it’s about “sovereignty”, it’s about “believing in Britain”, it’s about “taking back control”. But, even if those claims are correct – and I am unconvinced they are – the Leave campaign is, to a very large degree, a racist one.
If you are a Leave voter and offended by this, then please raise your concerns with Farage, Johnson, and Gove. Your desire to leave the EU may not be based on matters of race but the campaign which might yet deliver your dream is. You, whether willingly or not, are on the side of racists.
Read more: http://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/euan-mccolm-i-want-my-country-back-from-nasty-nationalists-1-4158434#ixzz4C0JVfl8S
Firstly many thanks for all the kind messages over the past weeks that have been passed onto me. I'm home now but a tad frail but uncommonly pleased to be in a position to be frail and not more deceased than one of Roger's political forecasts.
I'll be lurking for a few months (PB recuperative therapy I'm telling Mrs JackW and the quacks) so play nicely or the vacant Auchentennach dungeons will become available for miscreants and of course LibDems of any shade ....
Cheers for now.
Following that the Tories will become so unpopular that Corbyn will win in 2020.
Talk about unintended consequences.
Presumably this was group tested to death and the conclusion was reached that the swing voters in this were more likely to vote remain if they were scared by project fear rather than inspired by project EU. It's sad and there will be negative consequences.
We have not even been asked to stay in the relationship for the sake of the children, we have been asked to stay because we will supposedly be better off by a few quid if we continue to share the bills, friends without benefits, just an economic relationship. Really, who wants that?
Have a good holiday Cyclefree.
Some say polls influence results of elections, but clearly an what we really need is an ARSE predicting a Remain win to seal the deal.
Betting PostFor those who missed it yesterday, here are my thoughts on motorsport in Azerbaijan:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/06/azerbaijan-pre-race-2016.html
Worth noting the last time I offered three tips they all failed...
The conservative manifesto will be interesting:
We know we spent months abusing you but will you vote for us please?
I can't see a single argument that would arouse the passions of someone wanting to be enthused by REMAINing in the EU.
Even the first Campaign Broadcast with little Sam got the blood pumping more than this. Sorry but a complete fail
Have a good holiday
They do say that having a specific objective helps people recover & I had a feeling you weren't going to sit the referendum out...
BTW your forgot to mention you're channeling your inner @TSE with the Kylie reference in your piece
The Manors have a credible chance of points. However, they've only managed to score in one race, ever. I think it's a reasonable bet, but not something I'm backing personally.
Edited extra bit: the odds are/were 13 and 15 (Wehrlein shorter than Haryanto, which I'm not sure about). I'd want something more like 20-25.
"future migrants from Turkey instead of the actual people who everybody agrees can move to Britain because it's in the EU."
If you're in Tokyo, your ignorance is excusable. In Lincolnshire, the immigrants are Polish, Lithuanian, white and Christian and now make up 15 - 20% of the population from a standing start. Remember the reassurance that very few would come?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-36389905
Is this racism or not? Or is it a matter of class sizes etc?
Edit: Oh, and they're good Catholic lads and lassies. They're also hard-working but I don't live in Boston anymore, so perhaps I shouldn't judge.
And yes Labour may win the next GE -under John McDonnell or Corbyn...
I think the EU *could* be a force for good. It just isn't at the moment. A European community of nations all friends and trading and cooperating is absolutely a positive. But Europe isn't the EU and I like many people support the idea of the former and not the realities of the latter. Its not expansion that's the concern - a big broad diverse trading area is better than a small and narrow one. Its just that the bigger it gets the more absurd ideas like a single currency or no Borders become
I'm an advocate for a federal UK and have been for 20 years. Its the only viable solution to give the composite nations (and possibly regions) their own identity and voice. But it has to be with consent. Its very very hard to make an argument for a European superstate that demonstrates the consent of the people of Europe in creating it.
Anyway, a positive case for Europe is what we in Labour have tried to make. It went down like a bucket of warm sick. Most people seem to have a negative view of Europe, I can't think where they might have gained such an impression....
I think the idea of the EU is a good one. The idea of finding a way to live together in peace is a noble one. But somewhere it has gone off the rails. That is a great pity. I don't think it too late for matters to change. Nothing is inevitable and nothing is set in stone. Events and all that.
In any case, I am sure we will be debating this again.
Thanks again for your headers, which I have enjoyed.
The sun is shining. In a few hours I will be in Arras. Life is good.
"The suggestion has been made that Mrs Cox died because of her views on the EU. The implication is that those with different views are in some way to blame for her death.
We should scornfully reject this insinuation. Nobody on any side in the EU debate wishes any opponent dead.
In this country, no cause is served by violence and no rational person believes that it is.
Political murder is not common here, and in modern times has usually been the calculated and vengeful work of Irish criminal terror gangs.
What is regrettably common is the random killing of innocent people by the mentally ill. Numbers vary and can be calculated in many different ways, but even The Guardian accepts that in 2010 there were 40 such killings across the UK, carried out by patients with mental-health problems.
In 2005, there were 92. In the decade 2001-2010 there were 738 by one calculation, or 1,216 by another.
People going about their daily business are pushed under trains, stabbed, kicked to death, even beheaded by unhinged assailants, who have suddenly and unpredictably become violent.
Many of these killers are known by the authorities to be ill but still allowed to walk the streets, because dozens of mental hospitals have been shut to save money.
Some of them have become ill following long-term use of cannabis, now decriminalised in all but name. A long-overdue reversal of these foolish policies would be a better cause than trying to take partisan advantage of a human tragedy.
Disturbed people do sometimes embrace the wilder political and religious creeds.
But it is their mental illness, not these barely understood ‘opinions’, that makes them capable of the dreadful act of killing – an act which separates them from the rest of humanity.
The alleged killer, Thomas Mair, is said by neighbours to have a history of mental illness. By his own account it seems likely that he has taken some sort of medication at some stage.
He is said by his family to have had no interest in politics. Let us leave Jo Cox’s family and friends to mourn. And let us all listen carefully to the evidence when it is, eventually, placed before the courts."
And welcome back Jack! swift recovery!
I want my country back from anyone who feeds hatred.
We may look across the Atlantic with horror at the behaviour of Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump, but do we so lack self-awareness that we cannot see the ideology of hatred that has swept him to within touching distance of victory is the same ideology of hatred that had so well served the Brexit campaign?
That would do wonders for the NHS and the economy
Are you claiming that it's true? Do you think Brexit would result in British voters agreeing to let in lots more brown people?
Well worth a read, sums up how out of touch our politicians are.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36569338
He's trying to make it Jo Cox Vs Nigel Farage. May work. May backfire.
Edited extra bit: hmm. I may have misread it. Not sure. These are the relevant excerpts:
"Mr Cameron said the EU vote was the "ultimate democracy" and represented what Labour MP Jo Cox, who was killed on Thursday in her West Yorkshire constituency, had stood for.
Writing in the Sunday Telegraph, Mr Cameron, who is campaigning for Remain, said Mrs Cox had "embodied Britain at her best - a country that is decent and compassionate"."
and
""Are we going to choose Nigel Farage's vision - one which takes Britain backwards; divides rather than unites; and questions the motives of anyone who takes a different view," Mr Cameron wrote."
I'd maybe even settle for my party not insulting me.
No kidding. Its a preposterous circuit. Monza speeds, with longer on full throttle down the start finish straight than they had at Indianapolis. And at the end of that long 220mph run is a 90 left. If you get it wrong the choice is a hard barrier or a short stub end runoff where reversal onto the track is the only option. Indeed hard barriers or stubby runoff and reverse into traffic seems to be the pattern on a track hemmed in by a rather attractive city. How have they have passed a circuit as safe where the longest ever full throttle run is met with possible cars reversing at you into the braking zone?
Simple. MONEY. We have taken F1 to a place where the locals can't afford tickets to race around an unsafe absurd circuit (the uphill bit past the castle is insane) because the local dictator has a lot of money. Why are we following the Blessed Tony (for it is He) in taking money from a man who suppresses dissent and jails journalists? For a man as low as Bernie Ecclestone this is a new low.
I also expect many crashes. I pray that none of them are serious. The risk of some *bad* crashes is high. The last "European" GP on the Black Sea please.
'The message is clear: if you don’t want your communities swamped by brown people, vote to leave the EU. This is racism. And if you wish to argue it isn’t, then I’m going to believe you’re a racist.
Of course, Farage and his fellow travellers – Tory MPs Boris Johnson and Michael Gove, for example – maintain their campaign isn’t about race, it’s about “sovereignty”, it’s about “believing in Britain”, it’s about “taking back control”. But, even if those claims are correct – and I am unconvinced they are – the Leave campaign is, to a very large degree, a racist one.
If you are a Leave voter and offended by this, then please raise your concerns with Farage, Johnson, and Gove. Your desire to leave the EU may not be based on matters of race but the campaign which might yet deliver your dream is. You, whether willingly or not, are on the side of racists.
Read more: http://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/euan-mccolm-i-want-my-country-back-from-nasty-nationalists-1-4158434#ixzz4C0JVfl8S '
Year 1 day 1 student union journalism.
The message is clear if you can't say anything positive about Remain then just smear Leave as racists.
This is how our Prime Minister chooses to conduct himself.
I expect a Remain win by >10%.
My daughter is studying Classical Civilisation at university so one of the purposes of this trip is for her to see some of the sites she has been studying and to instruct me in the finer points of the art/architecture and history. I am really looking forward to this, not just because she's so enthusiastic about the period but also because it's lovely having this opportunity to develop our relationship and for me to learn from her.
The area around Naples is fascinating and when I have more time free from work I intend to spend more time exploring.
My big dream was to explore all of the ancient Roman world i.e. Libya - Leptis Magna and Syria and Tunisia etc. But that bit will have to be postponed sine die, alas. Still plenty in Italy itself.
........who talked about a unique community of twenty eight nations all with their own culture and language where young people could move freely with shared values of democracy and human rights forming a community unique in the world.
I hope the sea air is good for your chest. Petrochemical fumes are a major respiratory irritant, so avoid these as far as possible and enjoy the dolce vita. Europe is a great place.
The point I'm making is that concern about "furriners" isn't restricted to brown-skinned people. I'd expect an invasion of cockneys or scousers would involve some of the same problems.
Don't assume everything is "racist". When it comes to hatred, I think the people screaming racist at every opportunity need few lessons in that.
Yes, there are real racists. But the Gordon Brown problem is a big issue. Mention the touchy subject and you get an automatic response. And it often said with real hatred.
Vapid Bilge is an understatement
If I am right, we'll see huge Leave votes in Wales, the North and Midlands.
I agree it's crazy to go to Baku. With Monza, Spa and Interlagos under threat, there's a serious risk that F1 will pass the event horizon into doom and even long-term fans will prefer to switch off rather than watch a season that's 2/3 tedious, semi-identical street circuits because most of the classics have been let go.
F1 cars are very safe, but obviously there's only so far that goes. I'd guess the biggest risk is of an over-the-cockpit collision (as per Spa 2012 when Grosjean's wheel almost took Alonso's head off).
Edited extra bit: that said, the Baku circuit is more entertaining than I thought it might be. But I think the stewards will be earning their pay.
Founded as a Greek colony (Taras), it became Latinised as Tarentum and played important roles in both the wars featuring Pyrrhus, as well as the Second Punic War. No idea as to the state of the architecture, though.
Your daughter sounds like a young lady of excellent taste.
But I don't think it's in the national interest to accept all the world's old and sick, which is what would happen if you changed your criteria so that you don't discriminate against them (We may, of course, disagree on that)
They seem to think emotions are more important than facts and logic.
It is an immaturity caused by living in a wealthy bubble not having to face the daily travials to survive that the rest of us face.
Just noticed a tables link on the BMG site.
Online tables (Leave lead)
http://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/CONFIDENTIAL-BMG-HERALD-EU-REFERENDUM-POLL-ONLINE-160616-V1.pdf
Online methodology
http://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/Cover-Page-BMG-Herald-Online-Poll-Methodology-Sheet-160616.pdf
Phone and online tables links at bottom of article linked to below.
http://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/bmgherald-final-eu-referendum-poll/
The European companies who opened up factories in the North East (Siemens I'm looking at you) left at the first sign of an economic downturn to keep their Continental factories open...
It's reasons like that which make me think the size of the Leave vote was originally underestimated. Personally I haven't got a clue what the result will be and I doubt anyone else has....
Had the situation been reversed, he'd have accused the opposition of smearing.
It's politics.
What I am saying is that British people don't want more immigrants in Britain, and they *particularly* don't want more brown, non-Christian immigrants. There are various reasons why this might be - for example Britain has had terrorism problems in the past, and people often bring up cultural issues here - and you can argue about how well grounded they are. But I think as a reading of British politics, it's obviously correct. Restricting EU immigration won't make British voters want to open up to more brown immigrants.
I note that you haven't actually said that you agree with the claim I'm disputing.
I'm not disputing some of your reading of this.
It's the broad brush assumptions. There are enough racists around, you don't have to invent a few more.
Anyway, we don't totally disagree, so on that note, I have to go.
If the balance of of immigration were to shift to high skilled techies - for example - who (I assume) would be more likely to integrate then, regardless of the colour of their skill, the concern about immigration for most would subside.
If my job interview goes well tomorrow I'll take it off (happy to lose some pay to have more time off)
In return whilst living in Oxfordshire in 2005, she had to drive past banner after banner of racist UKIP slogans "No to EU immigration" as she drove home. And now this referendum which has upset her so much she cannot even talk about it.