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  • Options
    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,724

    surbiton said:

    RobD said:

    Thanks cyclefree. Even if we do vote remain, I suspect the EU will view us with suspicion, and our influence will be diminished somewhat (can you imagine a UK EU president?)

    The ending of our EU membership is now a matter of when, not if, IMHO.

    But if we do vote Remain, I expect we're in for a rather unpleasant few years of membership.
    And, continued schism within the Conservative party.
    "The ending of our EU membership is now a matter of when, not if, IMHO."
    But younger voters are more in favour of the EU, so as time passes it becomes less likely that we will leave.
    Or they become more Eurosceptic as they get older.
    It's possible, in the same way that people are said to become more conservative with age.
    However it seems more likely that those current older voters are harking back to a time before we joined the EU, so I would expect the electorate as a whole to become less Eurosceptic as time passes.
    http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2014/08/01/brussels-round-up-the-age-gap-in-british-euroscepticism-spanish-unemployment-and-will-the-latest-sanctions-against-russia-work/

    The electorate has become more socially tolerant as time has passed (e.g. gay marriage and many other examples), so such changes do occur.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    Neil comparing polls from other companies.... Naughty....
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,930
    edited June 2016
    RobD said:


    On the next thread. Any chance of a Eurovision/ABBA reference too?

    "It's all about 'Money, Money Money'" - why economics won the day for Remain?

    "'Gimme! Gimme! Gimme! (Freedom after June 24th)"? - why Immigration and taking control have played so well with the public

    "The Winner Takes it all!" - why the tory party needs to end its divisions when leave/remain win?

    "Super Trouper" - How loyal tory trooper George Osborne won the EU ref.

    "Thank you for the money" - how the EU will react to Britain's departure?
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    Has anyone got a link to the survation tables?
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    kle4 said:

    RobD said:


    On the next thread. Any chance of a Eurovision/ABBA reference too?

    "It's all about 'Money, Money Money'" - why economics won the day for Remain?

    "'Gimme! Gimme! Gimme! (Freedom after June 24th)"? - why Immigration and taking control have played so well with the public

    "The Winner Takes it all!" - why the tory party needs to end its divisions when leave/remain win?

    "Super Trouper" - How loyal tory trooper George Osborne won the EU ref.

    "Thank you for the money" - how the EU will react to Britain's departure?
    Who could forget "Making Your Mind Up" :D
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    What is it with Leavers and their inability to take criticism or possess a sense of humour

    @MichaelLCrick: Vote Leave have banned me from today's Boris Johnson rally in London, because, says aide Robert Oxley, I "took the piss" at past events

    Not sure if it's a journalist's job to take the piss at events if they are trying to be impartial.
    Did he, in fact, take the piss though? That seems to be the the interpretation of VoteLeave, but for all I know they are being sensitive little prisses.

    What I do know is that I'm more inclined to think journalists should be included even if they take they piss, than thinking its a good idea to leave the judgement as to whether piss has indeed been taken by the politicians themselves.

    It sure as sh*t is not going to help people be more favourable to them in future. And of course is self fulfilling - X took the piss out of us and is impartial, because we banned them from an event for taking the piss out of us and being impartial.
    My problem with Crick is that he acts like an attention seeking cheeky 14yrs old. There's nothing under his Ner-Ner-Ner.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    murali_s said:

    Leave at 3.6 on Betfair. Is the tide turning or is this incredible value?

    Shortly there will be a referendum, in which Remain will win, and in so doing utterly shatter the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained us for the century since 1906. This ought to herald another decade of strong, confident, consensual one nation Tory government. Which will finally and irrevocably transform the nature of politics and civic life in Britain.
    You're over your gloom of a few days ago?
    I've always been confident of a Remain victory.

    I said it was the prospect of Farage in government that was filling me with gloom.
    And the chances of a Farage peerage with a REMAIN victory must be slimmer than me ending up on a desert island with Jeri Ryan.
    I've written a thread about Jeri Ryan and hope it to publish it this summer.

    Contains discussions about sex clubs and orgies and how it led to Barack Obama becoming President
    Any tangential references to AV? Perhaps for partnering in said orgies?

    titters....
    We're all done for AV related threads this year.
    :o

    I have no words
    Actually I might work in a reference to AV into the afternoon thread.
    From no AV 'til next year to AV in the next thread in 5 mins??? :o:D:o
    Well he is a Cameroonite after all - full retreat at the first whiff of grapeshot
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,554

    Has anyone got a link to the survation tables?

    Not up yet.
  • Options
    AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,616
    edited June 2016
    PlatoSaid said:

    Y0kel said:

    For the Leave campaign perhaps the one thing that they need to pay attention to in the final days comes in an article by Tristram Hunt in the Sunday Times.

    "The only credible argument for Brexit - a belief in untrammeled parliamentary sovereignty-retains a powerful draw on public loyalty. I have found questions on of democracy and accountability, federalism and nationhood as vocal on the streets of Stoke as in any Westminster think tank'

    Its that simple, immigration is in effect a subset of this wider issue. Yet the Brexit campaign, to my eyes at least, hasn't gone after the singular sovereignty message as much as it should.

    The concern over the poll figures that I see is that yet again issues that do drive some peoples' choices, are things they may feel slightly reluctant to express vocally, immigration being the obvious one. Being openly expressive about such things can get you branded as a racist, ignorant or whatever. I suspect, plenty out there who are going to use the privacy of the ballot box to express it and that may tip things.

    I thought Tristram's piece was pretty honest too.
    The John Harris Anywhere But Westminster piece last week was done in two of the Stoke constituencies. Its an eyeopener for many unfamiliar with the post industrial areas of this country.

    Basically, the factory owners were voting In and the workers were voting Out. Of course, the latter greatly outnumber the former. There is a tiny MC in Stoke, most of whom work at one of Universities. Tristram must have got a big wake-up call on the streets of Hanley these last few months.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,892
    DavidL said:

    Good news for LEAVE, Osborne's on the Peston show. Bad news is that very few will watch it.

    Osborne has finally managed to frame the debate in a way that allows remain to win.
    His "emergency budget" nonsense was economic crap but political genius. All of the discussion of what to do with the extra £350m (I know, I know) was swept away almost instantly and has not been heard of since.

    Framing the debate is what the really skilled political operators do. Mandelson did it for Blair and Osborne is his unchallenged successor. Like Mandelson he is not nice or likeable but boy, is he effective.
    A very astute post
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    Charles said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    murali_s said:

    Leave at 3.6 on Betfair. Is the tide turning or is this incredible value?

    Shortly there will be a referendum, in which Remain will win, and in so doing utterly shatter the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained us for the century since 1906. This ought to herald another decade of strong, confident, consensual one nation Tory government. Which will finally and irrevocably transform the nature of politics and civic life in Britain.
    You're over your gloom of a few days ago?
    I've always been confident of a Remain victory.

    I said it was the prospect of Farage in government that was filling me with gloom.
    And the chances of a Farage peerage with a REMAIN victory must be slimmer than me ending up on a desert island with Jeri Ryan.
    I've written a thread about Jeri Ryan and hope it to publish it this summer.

    Contains discussions about sex clubs and orgies and how it led to Barack Obama becoming President
    Any tangential references to AV? Perhaps for partnering in said orgies?

    titters....
    We're all done for AV related threads this year.
    :o

    I have no words
    Actually I might work in a reference to AV into the afternoon thread.
    From no AV 'til next year to AV in the next thread in 5 mins??? :o:D:o
    Well he is a Cameroonite after all - full retreat at the first whiff of grapeshot
    TSE too busy chillaxing to finish the magnum opus AV thread? ;)
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:


    On the next thread. Any chance of a Eurovision/ABBA reference too?

    "It's all about 'Money, Money Money'" - why economics won the day for Remain?

    "'Gimme! Gimme! Gimme! (Freedom after June 24th)"? - why Immigration and taking control have played so well with the public

    "The Winner Takes it all!" - why the tory party needs to end its divisions when leave/remain win?

    "Super Trouper" - How loyal tory trooper George Osborne won the EU ref.

    "Thank you for the money" - how the EU will react to Britain's departure?
    Who could forget "Making Your Mind Up" :D
    "The King has lost his Crown" - pick a leader of your choice :).
  • Options
    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341
    edited June 2016

    surbiton said:

    RobD said:

    Thanks cyclefree. Even if we do vote remain, I suspect the EU will view us with suspicion, and our influence will be diminished somewhat (can you imagine a UK EU president?)

    The ending of our EU membership is now a matter of when, not if, IMHO.

    But if we do vote Remain, I expect we're in for a rather unpleasant few years of membership.
    And, continued schism within the Conservative party.
    "The ending of our EU membership is now a matter of when, not if, IMHO."
    But younger voters are more in favour of the EU, so as time passes it becomes less likely that we will leave.
    Or they become more Eurosceptic as they get older.
    It's possible, in the same way that people are said to become more conservative with age.
    However it seems more likely that those current older voters are harking back to a time before we joined the EU, so I would expect the electorate as a whole to become less Eurosceptic as time passes.
    http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2014/08/01/brussels-round-up-the-age-gap-in-british-euroscepticism-spanish-unemployment-and-will-the-latest-sanctions-against-russia-work/

    The electorate has become more socially tolerant as time has passed (e.g. gay marriage and many other examples), so such changes do occur.
    Indeed, many of the over 65s seem to think we're still fighting WW2 and projecting that emotion onto the EU.
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388

    Has anyone got a link to the survation tables?

    Not up yet.
    Drat.

    Do you think they'll be up today?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,930
    edited June 2016
    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:


    On the next thread. Any chance of a Eurovision/ABBA reference too?

    "It's all about 'Money, Money Money'" - why economics won the day for Remain?

    "'Gimme! Gimme! Gimme! (Freedom after June 24th)"? - why Immigration and taking control have played so well with the public

    "The Winner Takes it all!" - why the tory party needs to end its divisions when leave/remain win?

    "Super Trouper" - How loyal tory trooper George Osborne won the EU ref.

    "Thank you for the money" - how the EU will react to Britain's departure?
    Who could forget "Making Your Mind Up" :D
    "When all is said and done" do we want to "have a dream", "lay all our love" on each other and regard the EU as "one of us", or do we see them as "the visitors", go "head over heels", "on and on and on" and keep coming "under attack", "waiting for EU" to come to their senses and launch as "SOS"? "Knowing me, and knowing you", I think we all know the "name of the game" here.

    Sorry.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,554
    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:


    On the next thread. Any chance of a Eurovision/ABBA reference too?

    "It's all about 'Money, Money Money'" - why economics won the day for Remain?

    "'Gimme! Gimme! Gimme! (Freedom after June 24th)"? - why Immigration and taking control have played so well with the public

    "The Winner Takes it all!" - why the tory party needs to end its divisions when leave/remain win?

    "Super Trouper" - How loyal tory trooper George Osborne won the EU ref.

    "Thank you for the money" - how the EU will react to Britain's departure?
    Who could forget "Making Your Mind Up" :D
    I did the Bucks Fizz references the other day.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/06/13/looks-like-labour-mps-have-been-reading-their-macbeth-if-it-were-done-when-tis-done-then-twere-well-it-were-done-quickly/
  • Options
    Roger said:

    All the media now focusing on that BLOODY POSTER.

    And rightly so.
    But thats the whole purpose of that poster. To troll his opponents into banging on about immigration rather than the economy.

    Do not feed the troll.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,137
    PlatoSaid said:

    John_M said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    John_M said:

    murali_s said:

    Leave at 3.6 on Betfair. Is the tide turning or is this incredible value?

    Shortly there will be a referendum, in which Remain will win, and in so doing utterly shatter the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained us for the century since 1906. This ought to herald another decade of strong, confident, consensual one nation Tory government. Which will finally and irrevocably transform the nature of politics and civic life in Britain.
    TSE has become a poor man's Sion Simon. A post to bookmark and store to re-read time and time again?

    "Shortly there will be an election, in which Labour will increase its majority, and in so doing utterly shatter the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained us for the century since 1906."
    http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
    Hmm, I see it more as if Cameron wins, they'll be able to get back to ignoring all the issues highlighted in John Mann's shorts.

    Problems for the dispossessed WWC in the Labour heartlands? Fuck 'em, they don't count.
    If Remain wins, I suspect UKIP will see lots of new voters. They may get me too.
    As it stands I could never vote UKIP. It's a movement rather than a party. Plus Farage, bleh. He does have some good ideas, but in my view, thinks (like a lot of politicians) that the electorate are stupid. Hence the obnoxious dog whistling.

    Labour have to come to their senses. Not optimistic :). Never mind, votes are overrated. I have family, dogs, garden, voluntary work. It's enough.
    Twice before I've been politically homeless - and voted LD or OMRLP - Kippers are the biggest protest party if we Remain. I can't not vote.
    There's still a need to be in the Conservative Party - to make sure George Osborne never gets the top job.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,554
    edited June 2016

    Has anyone got a link to the survation tables?

    Not up yet.
    Drat.

    Do you think they'll be up today?
    Hopefully, I've emailed Damian asking for a copy, no joy yet.
  • Options
    trawltrawl Posts: 142
    Came in late from work last night to find 4 different Leave leaflets through the door. One is headlined "Your street is one of the most likely to Vote Leave in the country". Here's hoping but I'm not sure what that's based upon. Birmingham - Perry Barr constituency. Wonder if the leaflets are actually an overhang from my neighbouring home town of West Brom which I suspect will be very Leave (I note that Sandwell - West Bromwich and District in old money - was in the list of top 10 places for Leave).

    Nothing from Remain since a Labour mail shot to my missus a couple of weeks ago.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Charles said:

    murali_s said:

    Leave at 3.6 on Betfair. Is the tide turning or is this incredible value?

    Shortly there will be a referendum, in which Remain will win, and in so doing utterly shatter the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained us for the century since 1906. This ought to herald another decade of strong, confident, consensual one nation Tory government. Which will finally and irrevocably transform the nature of politics and civic life in Britain.
    You're over your gloom of a few days ago?
    I've always been confident of a Remain victory.

    I said it was the prospect of Farage in government that was filling me with gloom.
    Farage isn't even in Parliament!
    Prime Minister Boris Johnson can appoint him to The House of Lords.
    UKIP won 4 million votes at the last election. Shouldn't they be represented in the House of Lords?
    Yes, through elections not appointment.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,941
    PlatoSaid said:

    Well, that's a mistake I will never make again. Peston is not going on my essential viewing list. In fact, that's the last time I'll watch that particular programme. Everything about it is abysmal.

    I've just seen him do talking head stuff post the ITV debates - he was pretty average then. What made his show especially dire?

    He looks awful, he sounds awful, he shouts over interviewees, he interrupts them. And there's Allegra giving unilluminating comments on various Tweets. It's horrific.

  • Options
    notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    The two biggest things for me, one how the EU has impacted us and two, how we have impacted them.
    i) Environmental legislation. I'm not some save the whale hippy, and i have colossal amounts of scepticism of the integrity of those predicting imminent doom due to climate change. But, the changes that the EU brought in through regulations in the early nineties changed entirely how we view the environment. We have witnessed the most extraordinary improvements in our immediate surroundings. Air pollution, water quality, inland and outland. What is even more shocking is because of its gradual nature, meaning that we now all take for granted just how good it has got.
    ii) Under the auspices of the single market, and enforced by the ECJ, the rules on open competition, on the premise of not giving a competitive advantage to a domestic business at the expense of another from somewhere else in the single market, we have essentially exported a neo liberal economic model continent wide. Something that is a major bone of contention across the EU.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:


    On the next thread. Any chance of a Eurovision/ABBA reference too?

    "It's all about 'Money, Money Money'" - why economics won the day for Remain?

    "'Gimme! Gimme! Gimme! (Freedom after June 24th)"? - why Immigration and taking control have played so well with the public

    "The Winner Takes it all!" - why the tory party needs to end its divisions when leave/remain win?

    "Super Trouper" - How loyal tory trooper George Osborne won the EU ref.

    "Thank you for the money" - how the EU will react to Britain's departure?
    Who could forget "Making Your Mind Up" :D
    "When all is said and done" do we want to "have a dream", "lay all our love" on each other and regard the EU as "one of us", or do we see them as "the visitors", go "head over heels", "on and on and on" and keep coming "under attack", "waiting for EU" to come to their senses and launch as "SOS"? "Knowing me, and knowing you", I think we all know the "name of the game" here.

    Sorry.
    Where's Sunil? He'd have loved this LOL
  • Options
    TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited June 2016
    Could one of our experts please shed any light on this possible VAT change? True? Crock? Undecided?

    Louise Mensch @LouiseMensch
    Sorry, h/t for this mRichardADixon - is UK to lose an extra fifteen billion pounds in EU VAT bombshell?
    http://tinyurl.com/h26d9nt
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    surbiton said:

    RobD said:

    Thanks cyclefree. Even if we do vote remain, I suspect the EU will view us with suspicion, and our influence will be diminished somewhat (can you imagine a UK EU president?)

    The ending of our EU membership is now a matter of when, not if, IMHO.

    But if we do vote Remain, I expect we're in for a rather unpleasant few years of membership.
    And, continued schism within the Conservative party.
    "The ending of our EU membership is now a matter of when, not if, IMHO."
    But younger voters are more in favour of the EU, so as time passes it becomes less likely that we will leave.
    Or they become more Eurosceptic as they get older.
    It's possible, in the same way that people are said to become more conservative with age.
    However it seems more likely that those current older voters are harking back to a time before we joined the EU, so I would expect the electorate as a whole to become less Eurosceptic as time passes.
    http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2014/08/01/brussels-round-up-the-age-gap-in-british-euroscepticism-spanish-unemployment-and-will-the-latest-sanctions-against-russia-work/

    The electorate has become more socially tolerant as time has passed (e.g. gay marriage and many other examples), so such changes do occur.
    Indeed, many of the over 65s seem to think we're still fighting WW2 and projecting that emotion onto the EU.
    That is probably the dumbest post I've seen on here, which is saying something.

    My Mum's generation are broadly out because they think they were sold a pup in 1975. Simple as that. Not a yearning for Empire, not re-fighting Hitler.

    They've been lied to for forty years by successive administrations, denied the opportunity to express their frustration and now they want to kick the current political class in the bollocks.
  • Options
    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    PlatoSaid said:

    Y0kel said:

    For the Leave campaign perhaps the one thing that they need to pay attention to in the final days comes in an article by Tristram Hunt in the Sunday Times.

    "The only credible argument for Brexit - a belief in untrammeled parliamentary sovereignty-retains a powerful draw on public loyalty. I have found questions on of democracy and accountability, federalism and nationhood as vocal on the streets of Stoke as in any Westminster think tank'

    Its that simple, immigration is in effect a subset of this wider issue. Yet the Brexit campaign, to my eyes at least, hasn't gone after the singular sovereignty message as much as it should.

    The concern over the poll figures that I see is that yet again issues that do drive some peoples' choices, are things they may feel slightly reluctant to express vocally, immigration being the obvious one. Being openly expressive about such things can get you branded as a racist, ignorant or whatever. I suspect, plenty out there who are going to use the privacy of the ballot box to express it and that may tip things.

    I thought Tristram's piece was pretty honest too.
    The John Harris Anywhere But Westminster piece last week was done in two of the Stoke constituencies. its an eyeopener for many unfamiliar with the post industrial areas of this country.

    Basically, the factory owners were voting In and the workers were voting Out. Of course, the latter greatly outnumber the former. There is a tiny MC in Stoke, most of whom work at one of Universities. Tristram must have got a big wake-up call on the streets of Hanley these last few months.
    Tristram is part of the problem. I have no objection to Tristram being an MP for Cambridge or North London (where he was born. went to independent school, went to University).

    But, when he represents Stoke, something is lost. The authentic voice of Stoke, its people and their experiences. There are just too many Tristrams in Parliament.

    Jo Cox represented the town in which she was born and grew up and went to school. I liked that.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,137

    Could one of our experts please shed any light on this possible VAT change? True? Crock? Undecided?

    Louise Mensch @LouiseMensch
    Sorry, h/t for this mRichardADixon - is UK to lose an extra fifteen billion pounds in EU VAT bombshell?
    http://tinyurl.com/h26d9nt

    That's going to require an emergency budget all of its own. Isn't it George?
  • Options
    notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    Roger said:

    All the media now focusing on that BLOODY POSTER.

    And rightly so.
    But thats the whole purpose of that poster. To troll his opponents into banging on about immigration rather than the economy.

    Do not feed the troll.
    Yes, so people are now talking about the thing that he is most strong on, and not what he is weak on. Those most put out by the poster (distasteful though it is) are almost certainly on the progressive left and are not the swing voters that Leave need.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,282
    edited June 2016
    !
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    EPGEPG Posts: 6,013
    Looking at the last ten years of Western democracy, it seems unlikely that such a positive case as outlined in the header, faced against the press blaring about MIGRANTS, could possibly win.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,508
    Jonathan said:

    Charles said:

    murali_s said:

    Leave at 3.6 on Betfair. Is the tide turning or is this incredible value?

    Shortly there will be a referendum, in which Remain will win, and in so doing utterly shatter the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained us for the century since 1906. This ought to herald another decade of strong, confident, consensual one nation Tory government. Which will finally and irrevocably transform the nature of politics and civic life in Britain.
    You're over your gloom of a few days ago?
    I've always been confident of a Remain victory.

    I said it was the prospect of Farage in government that was filling me with gloom.
    Farage isn't even in Parliament!
    Prime Minister Boris Johnson can appoint him to The House of Lords.
    UKIP won 4 million votes at the last election. Shouldn't they be represented in the House of Lords?
    Yes, through elections not appointment.
    Am I missing some new development in the way the HOL works?
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited June 2016
    RobD said:

    Charles said:

    murali_s said:

    Leave at 3.6 on Betfair. Is the tide turning or is this incredible value?

    Shortly there will be a referendum, in which Remain will win, and in so doing utterly shatter the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained us for the century since 1906. This ought to herald another decade of strong, confident, consensual one nation Tory government. Which will finally and irrevocably transform the nature of politics and civic life in Britain.
    You're over your gloom of a few days ago?
    I've always been confident of a Remain victory.

    I said it was the prospect of Farage in government that was filling me with gloom.
    Farage isn't even in Parliament!
    Prime Minister Boris Johnson can appoint him to The House of Lords.
    UKIP won 4 million votes at the last election. Shouldn't they be represented in the House of Lords?
    Are there any stats on party affiliation for the excluded hereditaries?
    I believe that there is a fixed number of hereditaries per party, and that they can stand in elections for these positions based on a self-declaration. When Viscount Monckton, for instance, moved from the Tories to UKIP as a hereditary without a seat in the Lords he didn't automatically get a UKIP hereditary seat to stand for
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    PlatoSaid said:

    John_M said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    John_M said:

    murali_s said:

    Leave at 3.6 on Betfair. Is the tide turning or is this incredible value?

    Shortly there will be a referendum, in which Remain will win, and in so doing utterly shatter the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained us for the century since 1906. This ought to herald another decade of strong, confident, consensual one nation Tory government. Which will finally and irrevocably transform the nature of politics and civic life in Britain.
    TSE has become a poor man's Sion Simon. A post to bookmark and store to re-read time and time again?

    "Shortly there will be an election, in which Labour will increase its majority, and in so doing utterly shatter the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained us for the century since 1906."
    http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
    Hmm, I see it more as if Cameron wins, they'll be able to get back to ignoring all the issues highlighted in John Mann's shorts.

    Problems for the dispossessed WWC in the Labour heartlands? Fuck 'em, they don't count.
    If Remain wins, I suspect UKIP will see lots of new voters. They may get me too.
    As it stands I could never vote UKIP. It's a movement rather than a party. Plus Farage, bleh. He does have some good ideas, but in my view, thinks (like a lot of politicians) that the electorate are stupid. Hence the obnoxious dog whistling.

    Labour have to come to their senses. Not optimistic :). Never mind, votes are overrated. I have family, dogs, garden, voluntary work. It's enough.
    Twice before I've been politically homeless - and voted LD or OMRLP - Kippers are the biggest protest party if we Remain. I can't not vote.
    There's still a need to be in the Conservative Party - to make sure George Osborne never gets the top job.
    I'm paying £25 to vote against Osborne.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,282
    Now I'm grumpy and it's a sunday.

    I spend an afternoon week working for Oxfam locally. For every £1 raised, 84p is spent on development, humanitarian etc. 8p pays for running costs (including the (low) salaries of 100s of people who manage their local shops). 8p goes into leveraging further fund raising.

    Bizarrely, the organization, like most NGOs, employs professionals to carry out some of its tasks. Indeed, some of them even have the audacity to make a career out of it.

    I suppose you'd be happy if a bunch of bumbling, but well meaning, amateurs were sent out into war zones to help keep water supplies running or whatever.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    Charles said:

    RobD said:

    Charles said:

    murali_s said:

    Leave at 3.6 on Betfair. Is the tide turning or is this incredible value?

    Shortly there will be a referendum, in which Remain will win, and in so doing utterly shatter the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained us for the century since 1906. This ought to herald another decade of strong, confident, consensual one nation Tory government. Which will finally and irrevocably transform the nature of politics and civic life in Britain.
    You're over your gloom of a few days ago?
    I've always been confident of a Remain victory.

    I said it was the prospect of Farage in government that was filling me with gloom.
    Farage isn't even in Parliament!
    Prime Minister Boris Johnson can appoint him to The House of Lords.
    UKIP won 4 million votes at the last election. Shouldn't they be represented in the House of Lords?
    Are there any stats on party affiliation for the excluded hereditaries?
    I believe that there is a fixed number of hereditaries per party, and that they can stand in elections for these positions based on a self-declaration. If Viscount Monckton, for instance, was to move from the Tories to UKIP as a hereditary without a seat in the Lords he didn't automatically get a UKIP hereditary seat to stand for
    A good point about the set number per party, although I was wondering what the composition would be had the 1999 Act not been passed.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    murali_s said:

    Leave at 3.6 on Betfair. Is the tide turning or is this incredible value?

    Shortly there will be a referendum, in which Remain will win, and in so doing utterly shatter the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained us for the century since 1906. This ought to herald another decade of strong, confident, consensual one nation Tory government. Which will finally and irrevocably transform the nature of politics and civic life in Britain.
    You're over your gloom of a few days ago?
    I've always been confident of a Remain victory.

    I said it was the prospect of Farage in government that was filling me with gloom.
    Farage isn't even in Parliament!
    Prime Minister Boris Johnson can appoint him to The House of Lords.
    UKIP won 4 million votes at the last election. Shouldn't they be represented in the House of Lords?

    They should be much better represented in the Commons.

    Ideally, yes.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,554
    edited June 2016

    Could one of our experts please shed any light on this possible VAT change? True? Crock? Undecided?

    Louise Mensch @LouiseMensch
    Sorry, h/t for this mRichardADixon - is UK to lose an extra fifteen billion pounds in EU VAT bombshell?
    http://tinyurl.com/h26d9nt

    It's from Tapestry's blog ? Nuff said

    http://tapnewswire.com/2016/06/lessons-from-elsewhere-scare-stories-pre-eu-referendums-are-always-wrong/
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    trawl said:

    Came in late from work last night to find 4 different Leave leaflets through the door. One is headlined "Your street is one of the most likely to Vote Leave in the country". Here's hoping but I'm not sure what that's based upon. Birmingham - Perry Barr constituency. Wonder if the leaflets are actually an overhang from my neighbouring home town of West Brom which I suspect will be very Leave (I note that Sandwell - West Bromwich and District in old money - was in the list of top 10 places for Leave).

    Nothing from Remain since a Labour mail shot to my missus a couple of weeks ago.

    That's classic nudge psychology - this is what people like you are doing. Don't be the odd one out.
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''Tristram must have got a big wake-up call on the streets of Hanley these last few months.''

    I suspect Tristram knew about how many of his constituents felt all along. He probably calculated he could ignore them.

    The only difference is that now he has to listen. For a while anyway. If remain win, he'll be able to swamp them with more immigrants.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,472

    Could one of our experts please shed any light on this possible VAT change? True? Crock? Undecided?

    Louise Mensch @LouiseMensch
    Sorry, h/t for this mRichardADixon - is UK to lose an extra fifteen billion pounds in EU VAT bombshell?
    http://tinyurl.com/h26d9nt

    I don't know about the merits of that particular point, but all sorts of shit is going to hit us if we vote Remain.

    Having marched our troops to the very top of the Leave hill with days to go, before going 'nah, not sure I fancy it', and back down again isn't going to earn us much respect.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Jonathan said:

    Charles said:

    murali_s said:

    Leave at 3.6 on Betfair. Is the tide turning or is this incredible value?

    Shortly there will be a referendum, in which Remain will win, and in so doing utterly shatter the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained us for the century since 1906. This ought to herald another decade of strong, confident, consensual one nation Tory government. Which will finally and irrevocably transform the nature of politics and civic life in Britain.
    You're over your gloom of a few days ago?
    I've always been confident of a Remain victory.

    I said it was the prospect of Farage in government that was filling me with gloom.
    Farage isn't even in Parliament!
    Prime Minister Boris Johnson can appoint him to The House of Lords.
    UKIP won 4 million votes at the last election. Shouldn't they be represented in the House of Lords?
    Yes, through elections not appointment.
    Ideally yet, but until the Lords is reformed they should be represented under the current system
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    notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    Reports of mini riot in Carlisle Fighting between the in and out campaign in town centre.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,508

    Could one of our experts please shed any light on this possible VAT change? True? Crock? Undecided?

    Louise Mensch @LouiseMensch
    Sorry, h/t for this mRichardADixon - is UK to lose an extra fifteen billion pounds in EU VAT bombshell?
    http://tinyurl.com/h26d9nt

    That's going to require an emergency budget all of its own. Isn't it George?
    This could be incredibly important if true. Can it be verified? DM and Sun need to blast this if true.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,114
    RobD said:

    On the next thread. Any chance of a Eurovision/ABBA reference too?

    A thread about Cameron - 'Slipping through my fingers all the time'?
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    PlatoSaid said:

    trawl said:

    Came in late from work last night to find 4 different Leave leaflets through the door. One is headlined "Your street is one of the most likely to Vote Leave in the country". Here's hoping but I'm not sure what that's based upon. Birmingham - Perry Barr constituency. Wonder if the leaflets are actually an overhang from my neighbouring home town of West Brom which I suspect will be very Leave (I note that Sandwell - West Bromwich and District in old money - was in the list of top 10 places for Leave).

    Nothing from Remain since a Labour mail shot to my missus a couple of weeks ago.

    That's classic nudge psychology - this is what people like you are doing. Don't be the odd one out.
    There was an excellent interview with Thaler recently, talking about behavioral economics. He's just so irritatingly clever and perceptive. Nudge is one of my favourite books.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,997
    Mr. Eagles, that doesn't make it wrong in itself. Some years ago I recall Mr. Smithson saying he'd spoken privately with Mr. Tapestry about a certain matter and had been persuaded that there was actually something in it.

    So, you may not agree with Mr. Tapestry but just dismissing it out of hand is a shade complacent.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Now I'm grumpy and it's a sunday.

    I spend an afternoon week working for Oxfam locally. For every £1 raised, 84p is spent on development, humanitarian etc. 8p pays for running costs (including the (low) salaries of 100s of people who manage their local shops). 8p goes into leveraging further fund raising.

    Bizarrely, the organization, like most NGOs, employs professionals to carry out some of its tasks. Indeed, some of them even have the audacity to make a career out of it.

    I suppose you'd be happy if a bunch of bumbling, but well meaning, amateurs were sent out into war zones to help keep water supplies running or whatever.

    https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=bulldog+trust+golden+bottle&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&client=firefox-b-ab&gfe_rd=cr&ei=hXNmV4-fJKeBtgfq_oHACg

    This is an example of how much I care about how charities are structured and run.

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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,356
    Just got a small booklet leaflet through the door from the SNP explaining why I should vote remain for a brighter future. Interesting because it is the first hand delivered leaflet from either side we have had (got a couple in the post). Just maybe the SNP are going to throw some of their weight behind Remain after all.

    It may prove very useful in our household too. My wife finds herself unsure how to vote at an election for the first time in her life. She really likes Ruth and Cameron and was wavering towards remain but a picture of a smiling Nicola is worth a thousand words....
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    notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    update, punches thrown, three riot vans there now.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,345
    The Final Wembley debate will not be as easy a win for leave as their ITV one was - Boris, Gisela Stuart and Andrea Leadsom are up against a more formidable line up of Sadiq Khan, Francis O'Grady and Ruth Davidson. It will be very interesting but I think Sadiq Khan will get much the better of Boris. However, as with everything in this campaign only a few more days to 'put up' with it
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,472
    DavidL said:

    Just got a small booklet leaflet through the door from the SNP explaining why I should vote remain for a brighter future. Interesting because it is the first hand delivered leaflet from either side we have had (got a couple in the post). Just maybe the SNP are going to throw some of their weight behind Remain after all.

    It may prove very useful in our household too. My wife finds herself unsure how to vote at an election for the first time in her life. She really likes Ruth and Cameron and was wavering towards remain but a picture of a smiling Nicola is worth a thousand words....

    ;-)

    Has Gove's pledge to devolve repatriated fisheries, agriculture powers and Home Office migration quotas (for Scotland) to Holyrood in the event of Brexit cut through at all up there?

    (99% sure it hasn't, which is a shame)
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    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341
    John_M said:

    surbiton said:

    RobD said:

    Thanks cyclefree. Even if we do vote remain, I suspect the EU will view us with suspicion, and our influence will be diminished somewhat (can you imagine a UK EU president?)

    The ending of our EU membership is now a matter of when, not if, IMHO.

    But if we do vote Remain, I expect we're in for a rather unpleasant few years of membership.
    And, continued schism within the Conservative party.
    "The ending of our EU membership is now a matter of when, not if, IMHO."
    But younger voters are more in favour of the EU, so as time passes it becomes less likely that we will leave.
    Or they become more Eurosceptic as they get older.
    It's possible, in the same way that people are said to become more conservative with age.
    However it seems more likely that those current older voters are harking back to a time before we joined the EU, so I would expect the electorate as a whole to become less Eurosceptic as time passes.
    http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2014/08/01/brussels-round-up-the-age-gap-in-british-euroscepticism-spanish-unemployment-and-will-the-latest-sanctions-against-russia-work/

    The electorate has become more socially tolerant as time has passed (e.g. gay marriage and many other examples), so such changes do occur.
    Indeed, many of the over 65s seem to think we're still fighting WW2 and projecting that emotion onto the EU.
    That is probably the dumbest post I've seen on here, which is saying something.

    My Mum's generation are broadly out because they think they were sold a pup in 1975. Simple as that. Not a yearning for Empire, not re-fighting Hitler.

    They've been lied to for forty years by successive administrations, denied the opportunity to express their frustration and now they want to kick the current political class in the bollocks.
    Who exactly do you think the UKIP Dad's Army themed adverts were aimed at then?
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,997
    On VAT: the alleged change would be in line with a change made to electronic sales (you may remember I panicked a bit of the so-called #VATmess).

    At the time it was said a similar change would occur with physical goods. So, the story does seem to be plausible.
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    notme said:

    update, punches thrown, three riot vans there now.

    God, what a bunch of poncieboots we are now. That's just a normal Friday night outside the pub in just about every city in the UK. Riot vans?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,930
    PlatoSaid said:

    trawl said:

    Came in late from work last night to find 4 different Leave leaflets through the door. One is headlined "Your street is one of the most likely to Vote Leave in the country". Here's hoping but I'm not sure what that's based upon. Birmingham - Perry Barr constituency. Wonder if the leaflets are actually an overhang from my neighbouring home town of West Brom which I suspect will be very Leave (I note that Sandwell - West Bromwich and District in old money - was in the list of top 10 places for Leave).

    Nothing from Remain since a Labour mail shot to my missus a couple of weeks ago.

    That's classic nudge psychology - this is what people like you are doing. Don't be the odd one out.
    "We've been getting a great reception from your neighbours to [convert to mormonism/buy double glazing/give money to charity]"
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    PlatoSaid said:

    Y0kel said:

    For the Leave campaign perhaps the one thing that they need to pay attention to in the final days comes in an article by Tristram Hunt in the Sunday Times.

    I thought Tristram's piece was pretty honest too.

    The John Harris Anywhere But Westminster piece last week was done in two of the Stoke constituencies. its an eyeopener for many unfamiliar with the post industrial areas of this country.

    Basically, the factory owners were voting In and the workers were voting Out. Of course, the latter greatly outnumber the former. There is a tiny MC in Stoke, most of whom work at one of Universities. Tristram must have got a big wake-up call on the streets of Hanley these last few months.
    Tristram is part of the problem. I have no objection to Tristram being an MP for Cambridge or North London (where he was born. went to independent school, went to University).

    But, when he represents Stoke, something is lost. The authentic voice of Stoke, its people and their experiences. There are just too many Tristrams in Parliament.

    Jo Cox represented the town in which she was born and grew up and went to school. I liked that.
    I agree - I lived and worked in Stoke for few years, the people are very decent and hardworking, in a low wage economy. I met many highly intelligent and capable people, who could have been effective in an MPs role. They were doing important jobs, like running schools and hospitals.

    Unfortunately, they are not attracted to politics in large numbers and the Tristrams of this world are. The few who are, are frequently disregarded by selection panels, or candidates are imposed by party machines. My fervent hope is that political parties in England wake up to this - Labour have serious problems in this respect. It makes parliament a poorer place.

    Jim McMahon, who recently won the Royton by-election is another example of a capable and home grown MP, rather than a disconnected parachuter.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,892
    edited June 2016
    Charles.

    I'm not going to go back through it but you said she could justifiably be criticized for what she did in her life which referred to working for Oxfam.

    I usually think that unike several of the right wing headbangers on here you are actually quite thoughtful but I have to say it ill behoves someone who went to Eton and then joined their father's banking business to criticize someone who with no advantages got to Cambridge and then went to work for Oxfam because YOU don't rate Oxfam as a charity.

    I can assure you that if someone shoots you in the course of your work and anyone says 'well he was a banker' you can be certain I'll be the first to condemn them and it will be without reservation.
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    The Final Wembley debate will not be as easy a win for leave as their ITV one was - Boris, Gisela Stuart and Andrea Leadsom are up against a more formidable line up of Sadiq Khan, Francis O'Grady and Ruth Davidson. It will be very interesting but I think Sadiq Khan will get much the better of Boris. However, as with everything in this campaign only a few more days to 'put up' with it

    True, but at least Leave get to put up their A-team. My fantasy Remain trio would be Diane Abbot, Eddie Izzard and Russell Brand.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    edited June 2016
    Annoyed that Brexit tried to win on the democratic argument without criticism of Westminster as is.

    Westminster is to democracy what Ronaldo currently is to Portugal.
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''At the time it was said a similar change would occur with physical goods. So, the story does seem to be plausible.''

    You can see where this is going Mr Morris. Today ten billion net, tomorrow thirty. Day after fifty. Its the way the EU works.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,508
    John_M said:

    notme said:

    update, punches thrown, three riot vans there now.

    God, what a bunch of poncieboots we are now. That's just a normal Friday night outside the pub in just about every city in the UK. Riot vans?
    Blows it up doesn't it? No doubt be nasty right wingers against cuddly anti-fascist campaigners.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,345
    John_M said:

    The Final Wembley debate will not be as easy a win for leave as their ITV one was - Boris, Gisela Stuart and Andrea Leadsom are up against a more formidable line up of Sadiq Khan, Francis O'Grady and Ruth Davidson. It will be very interesting but I think Sadiq Khan will get much the better of Boris. However, as with everything in this campaign only a few more days to 'put up' with it

    True, but at least Leave get to put up their A-team. My fantasy Remain trio would be Diane Abbot, Eddie Izzard and Russell Brand.
    That would result in a rock solid win for leave
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    Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,604
    Roger said:

    All the media now focusing on that BLOODY POSTER.

    And rightly so. This is the most racist campaign this country has ever seen. At least Farage calls a spade a spade unlike Johnson who goes round in a bus with '77 million Turks' on the side and says it's nothing to do with him.
    I consider that the UK should not have an open border with Lithuania, Poland and other Eastern European countries whose GDP per head is a tiny fraction of that of the UK's, because of the effect that mass economic migration from those countries has had on keeping down the wages of the low paid and fostering inequality. It is nothing to do with refugees from Syria and frankly the UK has taken in only a pitiful number of them so far. That is a socialist position, not a racist one.

    I am not sure who I am more pissed off with, the Remain campaign for openly seeking to use the label of racism to avoid addressing the utter weakness of their position on economic migration, or Farage for giving them the pretext to do that with such an ill judged poster.

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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Westminster is to democracy what Ronaldo currently is to Portugal.

    Really? Any other system gives UKIP MPs in double figures.
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    John_M said:

    surbiton said:

    RobD said:

    Thanks cyclefree. Even if we do vote remain, I suspect the EU will view us with suspicion, and our influence will be diminished somewhat (can you imagine a UK EU president?)

    The ending of our EU membership is now a matter of when, not if, IMHO.

    But if we do vote Remain, I expect we're in for a rather unpleasant few years of membership.
    And, continued schism within the Conservative party.
    "The ending of our EU membership is now a matter of when, not if, IMHO."
    But younger voters are more in favour of the EU, so as time passes it becomes less likely that we will leave.
    Or they become more Eurosceptic as they get older.
    It's possible, in the same way that people are said to become more conservative with age.
    However it seems more likely that those current older voters are harking back to a time before we joined the EU, so I would expect the electorate as a whole to become less Eurosceptic as time passes.
    http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2014/08/01/brussels-round-up-the-age-gap-in-british-euroscepticism-spanish-unemployment-and-will-the-latest-sanctions-against-russia-work/

    The electorate has become more socially tolerant as time has passed (e.g. gay marriage and many other examples), so such changes do occur.
    Indeed, many of the over 65s seem to think we're still fighting WW2 and projecting that emotion onto the EU.
    That is probably the dumbest post I've seen on here, which is saying something.

    My Mum's generation are broadly out because they think they were sold a pup in 1975. Simple as that. Not a yearning for Empire, not re-fighting Hitler.

    They've been lied to for forty years by successive administrations, denied the opportunity to express their frustration and now they want to kick the current political class in the bollocks.
    Who exactly do you think the UKIP Dad's Army themed adverts were aimed at then?
    I don't have a telly...did I miss something?
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,472

    The Final Wembley debate will not be as easy a win for leave as their ITV one was - Boris, Gisela Stuart and Andrea Leadsom are up against a more formidable line up of Sadiq Khan, Francis O'Grady and Ruth Davidson. It will be very interesting but I think Sadiq Khan will get much the better of Boris. However, as with everything in this campaign only a few more days to 'put up' with it

    I think Ruth Davidson will be the most impressive for Remain.
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    It looks like Farage is standing by the poster (metaphorically as well as literally).
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,345

    Roger said:

    All the media now focusing on that BLOODY POSTER.

    And rightly so. This is the most racist campaign this country has ever seen. At least Farage calls a spade a spade unlike Johnson who goes round in a bus with '77 million Turks' on the side and says it's nothing to do with him.
    I consider that the UK should not have an open border with Lithuania, Poland and other Eastern European countries whose GDP per head is a tiny fraction of that of the UK's, because of the effect that mass economic migration from those countries has had on keeping down the wages of the low paid and fostering inequality. It is nothing to do with refugees from Syria and frankly the UK has taken in only a pitiful number of them so far. That is a socialist position, not a racist one.

    I am not sure who I am more pissed off with, the Remain campaign for openly seeking to use the label of racism to avoid addressing the utter weakness of their position on economic migration, or Farage for giving them the pretext to do that with such an ill judged poster.

    It may well turn out that Farage's ill considered poster coinciding with the assassination of Jo Cox ironically loses it for leave
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    trawltrawl Posts: 142
    PlatoSaid - thank you (feel a bit naive now), based on nothing then.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,472
    edited June 2016

    Roger said:

    All the media now focusing on that BLOODY POSTER.

    I am not sure who I am more pissed off with, the Remain campaign for openly seeking to use the label of racism to avoid addressing the utter weakness of their position on economic migration, or Farage for giving them the pretext to do that with such an ill judged poster.

    Well said. I'm not sure either.

    But we know Farage doesn't want Leave to win this. He only cares about Nigel.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,345

    The Final Wembley debate will not be as easy a win for leave as their ITV one was - Boris, Gisela Stuart and Andrea Leadsom are up against a more formidable line up of Sadiq Khan, Francis O'Grady and Ruth Davidson. It will be very interesting but I think Sadiq Khan will get much the better of Boris. However, as with everything in this campaign only a few more days to 'put up' with it

    I think Ruth Davidson will be the most impressive for Remain.
    I hope so - I am so impressed by her and hope someday she will lead the Conservative Party
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,151

    Could one of our experts please shed any light on this possible VAT change? True? Crock? Undecided?

    Louise Mensch @LouiseMensch
    Sorry, h/t for this mRichardADixon - is UK to lose an extra fifteen billion pounds in EU VAT bombshell?
    http://tinyurl.com/h26d9nt

    That's going to require an emergency budget all of its own. Isn't it George?
    This could be incredibly important if true. Can it be verified? DM and Sun need to blast this if true.
    Why would they care if it's true?
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    As a non Tory voter in a safe Tory seat, I currently have a greater democratic influence in the EU than I do at Westminster. The last general election produced the least representative parliament I can remember.
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    The Final Wembley debate will not be as easy a win for leave as their ITV one was - Boris, Gisela Stuart and Andrea Leadsom are up against a more formidable line up of Sadiq Khan, Francis O'Grady and Ruth Davidson. It will be very interesting but I think Sadiq Khan will get much the better of Boris. However, as with everything in this campaign only a few more days to 'put up' with it

    I think Ruth Davidson will be the most impressive for Remain.
    I agree. I've never heard of O'Grady and think Khan is average at best. Of course, based on their previous shambles, I'd expect Remain to have done their homework and prepped harder.

    Westminster bubble wise, I wonder if Davidson is going to go after Boris?
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    BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113
    Free Movement ≠ Unlimited Immigration

    Free Movement = Unlimited (Immigration + Emigration)
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,941

    The Final Wembley debate will not be as easy a win for leave as their ITV one was - Boris, Gisela Stuart and Andrea Leadsom are up against a more formidable line up of Sadiq Khan, Francis O'Grady and Ruth Davidson. It will be very interesting but I think Sadiq Khan will get much the better of Boris. However, as with everything in this campaign only a few more days to 'put up' with it

    One line of questioning for Boris will surely be based on the footage that emerged today of him extolling the virtues of the single market.

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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    The Farage poster will appeal to a lot of people, just not the type who post on here or who provide political commentary.

    Leave will lose, but not because of this poster that 99% will not have seen, especially as nobody watches politics shows on a Sunday morning.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,997
    Mr. Jonathan, really?

    Labour got a 50-60 odd seat majority with slightly worse (I think) figures in 2005.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,472

    The Final Wembley debate will not be as easy a win for leave as their ITV one was - Boris, Gisela Stuart and Andrea Leadsom are up against a more formidable line up of Sadiq Khan, Francis O'Grady and Ruth Davidson. It will be very interesting but I think Sadiq Khan will get much the better of Boris. However, as with everything in this campaign only a few more days to 'put up' with it

    I think Ruth Davidson will be the most impressive for Remain.
    I hope so - I am so impressed by her and hope someday she will lead the Conservative Party
    If she dries out on the EU, then I might agree with you ;-)
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    TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited June 2016

    The Final Wembley debate will not be as easy a win for leave as their ITV one was - Boris, Gisela Stuart and Andrea Leadsom are up against a more formidable line up of Sadiq Khan, Francis O'Grady and Ruth Davidson. It will be very interesting but I think Sadiq Khan will get much the better of Boris. However, as with everything in this campaign only a few more days to 'put up' with it

    I think Ruth Davidson will be the most impressive for Remain.
    I expect her to be another attack dog role on Boris... That did not go so well last time. But she will be the only one with the Osborne line on economics as the other two from Labour are anti-austerity and anti-emergency budget. Leadsom will understnd the numbers better and Giselle understands the EU legal matters better than everyone.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,345

    Could one of our experts please shed any light on this possible VAT change? True? Crock? Undecided?

    Louise Mensch @LouiseMensch
    Sorry, h/t for this mRichardADixon - is UK to lose an extra fifteen billion pounds in EU VAT bombshell?
    http://tinyurl.com/h26d9nt

    That's going to require an emergency budget all of its own. Isn't it George?
    This could be incredibly important if true. Can it be verified? DM and Sun need to blast this if true.
    Why would they care if it's true?
    The problem with all of this is that it just adds to scare stories and will be discounted as such even if it features in view of the short time left to the vote - remember the campaign finishes on Wednesday, just 3 working days away
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,892
    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    surbiton said:

    RobD said:

    Thanks cyclefree. Even if we do vote remain, I suspect the EU will view us with suspicion, and our influence will be diminished somewhat (can you imagine a UK EU president?)

    The ending of our EU membership is now a matter of when, not if, IMHO.

    But if we do vote Remain, I expect we're in for a rather unpleasant few years of membership.
    And, continued schism within the Conservative party.
    "The ending of our EU membership is now a matter of when, not if, IMHO."
    But younger voters are more in favour of the EU, so as time passes it becomes less likely that we will leave.
    Or they become more Eurosceptic as they get older.
    It's possible, in the same way that people are said to become more conservative with age.
    However it seems more likely that those current older voters are harking back to a time before we joined the EU, so I would expect the electorate as a whole to become less Eurosceptic as time passes.
    http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2014/08/01/brussels-round-up-the-age-gap-in-british-euroscepticism-spanish-unemployment-and-will-the-latest-sanctions-against-russia-work/

    The electorate has become more socially tolerant as time has passed (e.g. gay marriage and many other examples), so such changes do occur.
    Indeed, many of the over 65s seem to think we're still fighting WW2 and projecting that emotion onto the EU.
    That is probably the dumbest post I've seen on here, which is saying something.

    My Mum's generation are broadly out because they think they were sold a pup in 1975. Simple as that. Not a yearning for Empire, not re-fighting Hitler.

    They've been lied to for forty years by successive administrations, denied the opportunity to express their frustration and now they want to kick the current political class in the bollocks.
    Who exactly do you think the UKIP Dad's Army themed adverts were aimed at then?
    I don't have a telly...did I miss something?
    Here you go....

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b07d6f8y/eu-referendum-campaign-broadcasts-vote-leave-23052016
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985

    Free Movement ≠ Unlimited Immigration

    Free Movement = Unlimited (Immigration + Emigration)

    Which expands to:

    Free movement = unlimited Immigration + unlimited emigration.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    trawl said:

    PlatoSaid - thank you (feel a bit naive now), based on nothing then.

    Not naive at all - it's one of those devious dark arts used by PR people like me! :innocent:
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Mr. Jonathan, really?

    Labour got a 50-60 odd seat majority with slightly worse (I think) figures in 2005.

    2005 was shit, but 2015 is in a different league. Westminster is broken and not ready for more power as is.
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    notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    PlatoSaid said:

    trawl said:

    Came in late from work last night to find 4 different Leave leaflets through the door. One is headlined "Your street is one of the most likely to Vote Leave in the country". Here's hoping but I'm not sure what that's based upon. Birmingham - Perry Barr constituency. Wonder if the leaflets are actually an overhang from my neighbouring home town of West Brom which I suspect will be very Leave (I note that Sandwell - West Bromwich and District in old money - was in the list of top 10 places for Leave).

    Nothing from Remain since a Labour mail shot to my missus a couple of weeks ago.

    That's classic nudge psychology - this is what people like you are doing. Don't be the odd one out.
    Yes, it's standard technique used in direct sales. "Speaking to your neighbours, quite a few of them have asked us to clean out their gutters and pave their drives".
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,356

    DavidL said:

    Just got a small booklet leaflet through the door from the SNP explaining why I should vote remain for a brighter future. Interesting because it is the first hand delivered leaflet from either side we have had (got a couple in the post). Just maybe the SNP are going to throw some of their weight behind Remain after all.

    It may prove very useful in our household too. My wife finds herself unsure how to vote at an election for the first time in her life. She really likes Ruth and Cameron and was wavering towards remain but a picture of a smiling Nicola is worth a thousand words....

    ;-)

    Has Gove's pledge to devolve repatriated fisheries, agriculture powers and Home Office migration quotas (for Scotland) to Holyrood in the event of Brexit cut through at all up there?

    (99% sure it hasn't, which is a shame)
    No. There has been no Leave campaign to talk of in Scotland at all (and not much remain one until now either).

    One example, on Friday I drove to Aberdeen and back. In April/May the fields were full of large signs for the SNP, the Tories and even the odd Lib Dem. On Friday there was not a single one. Ir's like this is happening to someone else.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,345

    The Final Wembley debate will not be as easy a win for leave as their ITV one was - Boris, Gisela Stuart and Andrea Leadsom are up against a more formidable line up of Sadiq Khan, Francis O'Grady and Ruth Davidson. It will be very interesting but I think Sadiq Khan will get much the better of Boris. However, as with everything in this campaign only a few more days to 'put up' with it

    I think Ruth Davidson will be the most impressive for Remain.
    I hope so - I am so impressed by her and hope someday she will lead the Conservative Party
    If she dries out on the EU, then I might agree with you ;-)
    Lets hope that one way or another we can all get back to governing the Country in a few days time
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    The Final Wembley debate will not be as easy a win for leave as their ITV one was - Boris, Gisela Stuart and Andrea Leadsom are up against a more formidable line up of Sadiq Khan, Francis O'Grady and Ruth Davidson. It will be very interesting but I think Sadiq Khan will get much the better of Boris. However, as with everything in this campaign only a few more days to 'put up' with it

    One line of questioning for Boris will surely be based on the footage that emerged today of him extolling the virtues of the single market.

    It's 3yrs old, and he's been round this one before at the start of the campaign. I can't see it myself.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,472
    John_M said:

    The Final Wembley debate will not be as easy a win for leave as their ITV one was - Boris, Gisela Stuart and Andrea Leadsom are up against a more formidable line up of Sadiq Khan, Francis O'Grady and Ruth Davidson. It will be very interesting but I think Sadiq Khan will get much the better of Boris. However, as with everything in this campaign only a few more days to 'put up' with it

    I think Ruth Davidson will be the most impressive for Remain.
    I agree. I've never heard of O'Grady and think Khan is average at best. Of course, based on their previous shambles, I'd expect Remain to have done their homework and prepped harder.

    Westminster bubble wise, I wonder if Davidson is going to go after Boris?
    Remain won't make the same mistake again. Got to remember that Leave are up against some of the best, and most ruthless, political strategists and tacticians in the country.

    The TUC rep is obviously to appeal to swing WWC Labour voters, Khan in London and Ruth for Unionists in Scotland, and some swing Tories in England. I don't think Ruth will do personal.

    So they've probably picked the right team.

    Will it cut through?

    Dunno.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,356
    Jonathan said:

    As a non Tory voter in a safe Tory seat, I currently have a greater democratic influence in the EU than I do at Westminster. The last general election produced the least representative parliament I can remember.

    2005?
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    Jonathan said:

    Mr. Jonathan, really?

    Labour got a 50-60 odd seat majority with slightly worse (I think) figures in 2005.

    2005 was shit, but 2015 is in a different league. Westminster is broken and not ready for more power as is.
    How was 2015 worse when Labour got a bigger majority on worse figures?
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,997
    Mr. Jonathan, yet things are more proportional than they were when Labour got a big majority...
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    RobD said:

    Free Movement ≠ Unlimited Immigration

    Free Movement = Unlimited (Immigration + Emigration)

    Which expands to:

    Free movement = unlimited Immigration + unlimited emigration.
    What's your new avatar? I miss your burka.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,892
    edited June 2016

    Roger said:

    All the media now focusing on that BLOODY POSTER.

    And rightly so. This is the most racist campaign this country has ever seen. At least Farage calls a spade a spade unlike Johnson who goes round in a bus with '77 million Turks' on the side and says it's nothing to do with him.
    I consider that the UK should not have an open border with Lithuania, Poland and other Eastern European countries whose GDP per head is a tiny fraction of that of the UK's, because of the effect that mass economic migration from those countries has had on keeping down the wages of the low paid and fostering inequality. It is nothing to do with refugees from Syria and frankly the UK has taken in only a pitiful number of them so far. That is a socialist position, not a racist one.

    I am not sure who I am more pissed off with, the Remain campaign for openly seeking to use the label of racism to avoid addressing the utter weakness of their position on economic migration, or Farage for giving them the pretext to do that with such an ill judged poster.

    Tke a look at the Leave ad which I've just posted. It's far more insidious than Farage standing in front of that poster.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,472

    The Final Wembley debate will not be as easy a win for leave as their ITV one was - Boris, Gisela Stuart and Andrea Leadsom are up against a more formidable line up of Sadiq Khan, Francis O'Grady and Ruth Davidson. It will be very interesting but I think Sadiq Khan will get much the better of Boris. However, as with everything in this campaign only a few more days to 'put up' with it

    I think Ruth Davidson will be the most impressive for Remain.
    I hope so - I am so impressed by her and hope someday she will lead the Conservative Party
    If she dries out on the EU, then I might agree with you ;-)
    Lets hope that one way or another we can all get back to governing the Country in a few days time
    Osborne's head is the price of peace, either way.
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    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,052
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Just got a small booklet leaflet through the door from the SNP explaining why I should vote remain for a brighter future. Interesting because it is the first hand delivered leaflet from either side we have had (got a couple in the post). Just maybe the SNP are going to throw some of their weight behind Remain after all.

    It may prove very useful in our household too. My wife finds herself unsure how to vote at an election for the first time in her life. She really likes Ruth and Cameron and was wavering towards remain but a picture of a smiling Nicola is worth a thousand words....

    ;-)

    Has Gove's pledge to devolve repatriated fisheries, agriculture powers and Home Office migration quotas (for Scotland) to Holyrood in the event of Brexit cut through at all up there?

    (99% sure it hasn't, which is a shame)
    No. There has been no Leave campaign to talk of in Scotland at all (and not much remain one until now either).

    One example, on Friday I drove to Aberdeen and back. In April/May the fields were full of large signs for the SNP, the Tories and even the odd Lib Dem. On Friday there was not a single one. Ir's like this is happening to someone else.
    Very strange. Are people in Scotland just not bothered?
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    PlatoSaid said:

    RobD said:

    Free Movement ≠ Unlimited Immigration

    Free Movement = Unlimited (Immigration + Emigration)

    Which expands to:

    Free movement = unlimited Immigration + unlimited emigration.
    What's your new avatar? I miss your burka.
    A burka sponsored by Weyland-Yutani. :D

    Going to be a nerd for a sec, but I really quite like Mass Effect.
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    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Anecdote alert:

    My (Estonian) wife just came out for Leave.

    I am shocked.
This discussion has been closed.