Britain Elects The Leave campaign represents... The establishment: 19% Ordinary people: 26% Both equally: 22% (via YouGov / 16 - 17 Jun)
The Leave campaign understands the concerns of ordinary people... Well: 46% Badly: 35% (via YouGov / 16 - 17 Jun)
Didn't EICIPM have a big lead on "understands our concerns"? Not really predictive question in my view, although I think voters are smart enough to know the difference between a GE and a referendum and so tge factors may play out differently
There are similarities between the underlying poll numbers for each side in this campaign, and Labour and Conservatives last year. But also one difference. The Remain leaders are more distrusted than the Leave leaders.
The message is clear: if you don’t want your communities swamped by brown people, vote to leave the EU. This is racism. And if you wish to argue it isn’t, then I’m going to believe you’re a racist.
Of course, Farage and his fellow travellers – Tory MPs Boris Johnson and Michael Gove, for example – maintain their campaign isn’t about race, it’s about “sovereignty”, it’s about “believing in Britain”, it’s about “taking back control”. But, even if those claims are correct – and I am unconvinced they are – the Leave campaign is, to a very large degree, a racist one.
If you are a Leave voter and offended by this, then please raise your concerns with Farage, Johnson, and Gove. Your desire to leave the EU may not be based on matters of race but the campaign which might yet deliver your dream is. You, whether willingly or not, are on the side of racists.
What rubbish. The whole point is that skilled and valuable brown people cant come in at the moment because unskilled and not required white people from eastern Europe can come in without let or hindrance
Its very telling, we have a thread header extolling the positive reasons to vote Remain yet in no time they resort to the default setting of calling us racists.
The conservative manifesto will be interesting:
We know we spent months abusing you but will you vote for us please?
Faux outrage as per usual. Absolutely nobody is claiming that all Leavers are racist and that is certainly true. It does not, however, follow that no Leavers are racist. It doesn't take 5 minutes on the internet to locate them and see which camp they are in.
This place is going to be hilarious on friday regardless of the result. The worst traits of human nature will be on display as insults fly and recriminations begin. It'll be an anonymous online version of the Conservative Party.
Could well be. It may not immediately be so after the results have been announced, as the particularly confident remainers and leavers keep their heads down after being so wrong, but given many aren't so confident and are very passionate, yes, it will be vicious. Thankfully I'm at a count on the night then have work in the morning so there's that.
Typically, partisans of each side on this site think they'll lose. I'm one of them.
In essence, his mother thought the reaction to Jo Cox's murder was mawkish and overwrought.
I think that's unfair, but he was reporting an opinion, not endorsing it.
No Sean... actually.. Lowlander was reporting that his mother felt contempt for Jo Cox (obviously, so did Mair)...
Lot's have people have commented on the reaction, and whether they think it is appropriate or not. That is fine. But to post that someone feels contempt for Jo Cox, in the aftermath of her brutal murder was really not quite right.
To be fair he did label his original post as "not a Safe Space" warning people that they might be offended. Of course he should not expect a "Safe Space" in return.
Fox- you asked me last night about stick or twist....I've checked Betfair....I've stuck so far, but it is still drifting- out to 3.5. I am though hedging to be honest too- I need to buy a wedge of Euros, so what I'll lose on betfair, I'll for back with the currency transaction.
I'll only cash out Betfair when I am convinced about the result
I have done a partial cashout to reduce exposure. I have kept my turnout bets standing. I think the 60-65% band is good value. Currently 7.4 on Betfair exch.
Cameron and Osborne must despair. Desperately spending the last week trying to get the discussion away from immigration and onto the economy, and Corbyn decides that what Remain needs is one of his cosy philosophical nuanced chats.
''I would add a fourth one, which is how do we bring in those that haven't benefited from globalisation, may be have lost from it? It's a challenge if we remain in the EU. ''
Remainers won't bother.
A passionate remainer friend thinks the leave campaign is essentially obese mobility scooter driving white people who haven't worked for three generations and won;t do the jobs immigrants do for peanuts.
Britain Elects The Leave campaign represents... The establishment: 19% Ordinary people: 26% Both equally: 22% (via YouGov / 16 - 17 Jun)
The Leave campaign understands the concerns of ordinary people... Well: 46% Badly: 35% (via YouGov / 16 - 17 Jun)
Didn't EICIPM have a big lead on "understands our concerns"? Not really predictive question in my view, although I think voters are smart enough to know the difference between a GE and a referendum and so tge factors may play out differently
I do t think the understands concernsis predictive either. Not sure if being a referendum will make that much difference to its relevance.
Firstly many thanks for all the kind messages over the past weeks that have been passed onto me. I'm home now but a tad frail but uncommonly pleased to be in a position to be frail and not more deceased than one of Roger's political forecasts.
I'll be lurking for a few months (PB recuperative therapy I'm telling Mrs JackW and the quacks) so play nicely or the vacant Auchentennach dungeons will become available for miscreants and of course LibDems of any shade ....
Cheers for now.
Morning Jack,
Nice to hear you are on the mend... We've missed certainly missed being able to view your ARSE these past weeks so hopefully you'll have it all ready to offer up more outpourings soon!
Good to hear that JackW is still in the land of the sentient beings and returning to form. My betting strategy has gone completely wayward without the reliability of his lucrative cheeks...
Excellent Cyclefree. I've said this for months. The British want a very different sort of relationship with Europe:
Apart from the British who do want that kind of relationship. Too many people on the Leave side of the argument presume to talk for Britain.
Correct and it is a vision so dismal and so inward looking that if Leave win next Friday and the Faragists take control people won't need to worry about overcrowding any longer
Firstly many thanks for all the kind messages over the past weeks that have been passed onto me. I'm home now but a tad frail but uncommonly pleased to be in a position to be frail and not more deceased than one of Roger's political forecasts.
I'll be lurking for a few months (PB recuperative therapy I'm telling Mrs JackW and the quacks) so play nicely or the vacant Auchentennach dungeons will become available for miscreants and of course LibDems of any shade ....
Cheers for now.
Absolutely brilliant to see you back again Jack. Take care of yourself.
Cameron and Osborne must despair. Desperately spending the last week trying to get the discussion away from immigration and onto the economy, and Corbyn decides that what Remain needs is one of his cosy philosophical nuanced chats.
He just isn't very bright. More importantly, he is wrong and totally disconnected from most Labour voters.
It's not a matter of being a few quid better off. It's a matter of avoiding long-lasting economic damage that will cause significant harm to millions of people. It is a negative, but for me and many others it is a very powerful one.
The fact is that we are so integrated into the EU that the case for withdrawal needs to be powerful and inarguable. The benefits need to be concrete and timetabled to make the downsides worth it. But Leave have provided nothing but speculation, conjecture and plainly false promises.
Is it worth doing significant harm to ourselves to achieve insignificant reductions in immigration? I cannot see it. That's why I'm Remain.
Leave will win though.
The serious and long lasting damage will happen if we remain. Immigration will continue at an unsustainable rate. Most of that immigration will be low skilled and minimum wage, hard working and ambitious but doing nothing for our productivity. In the meantime training of our indigenous population will continue to be regarded as a waste of money. Our population and GDP will continue to rise but our GDP per head will remain static at best.
Whilst in we risk becoming ever more integrated into a declining and uncompetitive market losing further ground to the rest of the world while we faff about with ever more absurd "rights" making our business less viable. We will continue to find that the current terms of trade provide us with a huge and growing structural trading deficit which gradually impoverishes our country.
We risk facing domination by an integrated Euro zone using QMV to drive through their agenda, not ours. Once the referendum is out of the way the pace of this will pick up again.
We will find it more difficult to negotiate opt outs from the various things that we don't like and there will be plenty of them. We are on a bus where we cannot pick the terminus but we continue to move into an ever more depressing neighbourhood.
And we will see all of this because remain will win. Being right will give me no satisfaction at all.
So, "Glass half empty" this morning?
Not really. It is disappointing that the UK is choosing a safe decline over the risks and opportunities of Brexit but totally predictable.
It's not a matter of being a few quid better off. It's a matter of avoiding long-lasting economic damage that will cause significant harm to millions of people. It is a negative, but for me and many others it is a very powerful one.
The fact is that we are so integrated into the EU that the case for withdrawal needs to be powerful and inarguable. The benefits need to be concrete and timetabled to make the downsides worth it. But Leave have provided nothing but speculation, conjecture and plainly false promises.
Is it worth doing significant harm to ourselves to achieve insignificant reductions in immigration? I cannot see it. That's why I'm Remain.
Leave will win though.
The serious and long lasting damage will happen if we remain. Immigration will continue at an unsustainable rate. Most of that immigration will be low skilled and minimum wage, hard working and ambitious but doing nothing for our productivity. In the meantime training of our indigenous population will continue to be regarded as a waste of money. Our population and GDP will continue to rise but our GDP per head will remain static at best.
Whilst in we risk becoming ever more integrated into a declining and uncompetitive market losing further ground to the rest of the world while we faff about with ever more absurd "rights" making our business less viable. We will continue to find that the current terms of trade provide us with a huge and growing structural trading deficit which gradually impoverishes our country.
We risk facing domination by an integrated Euro zone using QMV to drive through their agenda, not ours. Once the referendum is out of the way the pace of this will pick up again.
We will find it more difficult to negotiate opt outs from the various things that we don't like and there will be plenty of them. We are on a bus where we cannot pick the terminus but we continue to move into an ever more depressing neighbourhood.
And we will see all of this because remain will win. Being right will give me no satisfaction at all.
Thanks cyclefree. Even if we do vote remain, I suspect the EU will view us with suspicion, and our influence will be diminished somewhat (can you imagine a UK EU president?)
The ending of our EU membership is now a matter of when, not if, IMHO.
But if we do vote Remain, I expect we're in for a rather unpleasant few years of membership.
And, continued schism within the Conservative party.
Cameron and Osborne must despair. Desperately spending the last week trying to get the discussion away from immigration and onto the economy, and Corbyn decides that what Remain needs is one of his cosy philosophical nuanced chats.
He just isn't very bright. More importantly, he is wrong and totally disconnected from most Labour voters.
In essence, his mother thought the reaction to Jo Cox's murder was mawkish and overwrought.
I think that's unfair, but he was reporting an opinion, not endorsing it.
No Sean... actually.. Lowlander was reporting that his mother felt contempt for Jo Cox (obviously, so did Mair)...
Lot's have people have commented on the reaction, and whether they think it is appropriate or not. That is fine. But to post that someone feels contempt for Jo Cox, in the aftermath of her brutal murder was really not quite right.
To be fair he did label his original post as "not a Safe Space" warning people that they might be offended. Of course he should not expect a "Safe Space" in return.
Fox- you asked me last night about stick or twist....I've checked Betfair....I've stuck so far, but it is still drifting- out to 3.5. I am though hedging to be honest too- I need to buy a wedge of Euros, so what I'll lose on betfair, I'll for back with the currency transaction.
I'll only cash out Betfair when I am convinced about the result
I have done a partial cashout to reduce exposure. I have kept my turnout bets standing. I think the 60-65% band is good value. Currently 7.4 on Betfair exch.
Thanks for that tip- I've just taken a little nibble
''I would add a fourth one, which is how do we bring in those that haven't benefited from globalisation, may be have lost from it? It's a challenge if we remain in the EU. ''
Remainers won't bother.
A passionate remainer friend thinks the leave campaign is essentially obese mobility scooter driving white people who haven't worked for three generations and won;t do the jobs immigrants do for peanuts.
Unfortunately I suspect you are right. I also don't think Leavers will bother either. People voting Leave on the grounds that they haven't benefited from the fruits of globalisation in the form of the EU will be disappointed by the yet more unfettered capitalism on offer from Farage, Johnson and Gove.
Cameron and Osborne must despair. Desperately spending the last week trying to get the discussion away from immigration and onto the economy, and Corbyn decides that what Remain needs is one of his cosy philosophical nuanced chats.
He just isn't very bright. More importantly, he is wrong and totally disconnected from most Labour voters.
How long before they notice though?
He does clock up good by-election victories one after the other. Apparently, the Labour vote should be imploding.
''I would add a fourth one, which is how do we bring in those that haven't benefited from globalisation, may be have lost from it? It's a challenge if we remain in the EU. ''
Remainers won't bother.
A passionate remainer friend thinks the leave campaign is essentially obese mobility scooter driving white people who haven't worked for three generations and won;t do the jobs immigrants do for peanuts.
Some very old-fashioned attitudes have re-emerged in recent years. It's not that far removed from the view that feeding the Irish would only encourage them to breed.
Cameron and Osborne must despair. Desperately spending the last week trying to get the discussion away from immigration and onto the economy, and Corbyn decides that what Remain needs is one of his cosy philosophical nuanced chats.
He just isn't very bright. More importantly, he is wrong and totally disconnected from most Labour voters.
I'm not sure what's worse for Labour's electoral chances. His political opinions or the fact that he sees absolutely zero need to temper them (or at the very least not talk about them) where they will inevitably cost votes (especially in the heat of a political campaign). Whilst it is the job of political leaders to lead and shape public opinion rather than follow it, the time to do that is not 4 days before the ballot box.
If he leads Labour into the next election it is entirely plausible to foresee occasions that he will appear in interviews disagreeing with his own party's manifesto.
Thanks cyclefree. Even if we do vote remain, I suspect the EU will view us with suspicion, and our influence will be diminished somewhat (can you imagine a UK EU president?)
The ending of our EU membership is now a matter of when, not if, IMHO.
But if we do vote Remain, I expect we're in for a rather unpleasant few years of membership.
And, continued schism within the Conservative party.
I'm just curious in the event of remain if cameron announces he will go inthe next year or so or if that will remain an internal message to ward off a challenge.
Cameron and Osborne must despair. Desperately spending the last week trying to get the discussion away from immigration and onto the economy, and Corbyn decides that what Remain needs is one of his cosy philosophical nuanced chats.
He just isn't very bright. More importantly, he is wrong and totally disconnected from most Labour voters.
I'm not sure what's worse for Labour's electoral chances. His political opinions or the fact that he sees absolutely zero need to temper them (or at the very least not talk about them) where they will inevitably cost votes (especially in the heat of a political campaign). Whilst it is the job of political leaders to lead and shape public opinion rather than follow it, the time to do that is not 4 days before the ballot box.
If he leads Labour into the next election it is entirely plausible to foresee occasions that he will appear in interviews disagreeing with his own party's manifesto.
Somehow, after last night's polls, much of the excitement and uncertainty has disappeared from the contest, evidenced by the fact that we've so far seen 220+ posts on this thread. Of late, we'd have seen twice that number by now. Shame .... we are all so driven by polls these days, instead of by the underlying subject matter.
Cameron and Osborne must despair. Desperately spending the last week trying to get the discussion away from immigration and onto the economy, and Corbyn decides that what Remain needs is one of his cosy philosophical nuanced chats.
He just isn't very bright. More importantly, he is wrong and totally disconnected from most Labour voters.
I'm not sure what's worse for Labour's electoral chances. His political opinions or the fact that he sees absolutely zero need to temper them (or at the very least not talk about them) where they will inevitably cost votes (especially in the heat of a political campaign). Whilst it is the job of political leaders to lead and shape public opinion rather than follow it, the time to do that is not 4 days before the ballot box.
If he leads Labour into the next election it is entirely plausible to foresee occasions that he will appear in interviews disagreeing with his own party's manifesto.
Leave at 3.6 on Betfair. Is the tide turning or is this incredible value?
Shortly there will be a referendum, in which Remain will win, and in so doing utterly shatter the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained us for the century since 1906. This ought to herald another decade of strong, confident, consensual one nation Tory government. Which will finally and irrevocably transform the nature of politics and civic life in Britain.
Cameron and Osborne must despair. Desperately spending the last week trying to get the discussion away from immigration and onto the economy, and Corbyn decides that what Remain needs is one of his cosy philosophical nuanced chats.
He just isn't very bright. More importantly, he is wrong and totally disconnected from most Labour voters.
I'm not sure what's worse for Labour's electoral chances. His political opinions or the fact that he sees absolutely zero need to temper them (or at the very least not talk about them) where they will inevitably cost votes (especially in the heat of a political campaign). Whilst it is the job of political leaders to lead and shape public opinion rather than follow it, the time to do that is not 4 days before the ballot box.
If he leads Labour into the next election it is entirely plausible to foresee occasions that he will appear in interviews disagreeing with his own party's manifesto.
He already does - see Trident.
Well I know. But it's a bit different doing that actually during an election campaign where he is inviting voters to endorse said manifesto.
Somehow, after last night's polls, much of the excitement and uncertainty has disappeared from the contest, evidenced by the fact that we've so far seen 220+ posts on this thread. Of late, we'd have seen twice that number by now. Shame .... we are all so driven by polls these days, instead of by the underlying subject matter.
Which is odd as the polls weren't that remarkable. There had been massive swings to leave, some swing back to remain, which many long predicted would happen I. The final week, was to be expected. It's not over.
''Some very old-fashioned attitudes have re-emerged in recent years. It's not that far removed from the view that feeding the Irish would only encourage them to breed.''
Can it be long before we have a Modest Proposal for the Working Class White People of England?
Excellent Cyclefree. I've said this for months. The British want a very different sort of relationship with Europe:
Apart from the British who do want that kind of relationship. Too many people on the Leave side of the argument presume to talk for Britain.
Correct and it is a vision so dismal and so inward looking that if Leave win next Friday and the Faragists take control people won't need to worry about overcrowding any longer
Roger predicting the luvvie exodus that always happens when they don't get their way. Why, the country was utterly depleted of them after Boris became mayor.
Somehow, after last night's polls, much of the excitement and uncertainty has disappeared from the contest, evidenced by the fact that we've so far seen 220+ posts on this thread. Of late, we'd have seen twice that number by now. Shame .... we are all so driven by polls these days, instead of by the underlying subject matter.
Suffering from a dollop of referendum fatigue myself. And feel we're in a phoney period again with just a few days to go. I've decided to watch pulp TV instead of politics shows.
Somehow, after last night's polls, much of the excitement and uncertainty has disappeared from the contest, evidenced by the fact that we've so far seen 220+ posts on this thread. Of late, we'd have seen twice that number by now. Shame .... we are all so driven by polls these days, instead of by the underlying subject matter.
There is no debate to be had. Both sides are polarised to a religious degree. You'll get a more objective analysis from Arsenal fans on Tottenham and vice versa.
Leave at 3.6 on Betfair. Is the tide turning or is this incredible value?
Shortly there will be a referendum, in which Remain will win, and in so doing utterly shatter the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained us for the century since 1906. This ought to herald another decade of strong, confident, consensual one nation Tory government. Which will finally and irrevocably transform the nature of politics and civic life in Britain.
I assume you are deliberately channelling Sion Simon. Go on. Post it. You know you want to.
Somehow, after last night's polls, much of the excitement and uncertainty has disappeared from the contest, evidenced by the fact that we've so far seen 220+ posts on this thread. Of late, we'd have seen twice that number by now. Shame .... we are all so driven by polls these days, instead of by the underlying subject matter.
Sunday.. people too busy at church/pub other things. Of course, they should be reading/commenting on PB from such places.
"future migrants from Turkey instead of the actual people who everybody agrees can move to Britain because it's in the EU."
If you're in Tokyo, your ignorance is excusable. In Lincolnshire, the immigrants are Polish, Lithuanian, white and Christian and now make up 15 - 20% of the population from a standing start. Remember the reassurance that very few would come?
Is this racism or not? Or is it a matter of class sizes etc?
Edit: Oh, and they're good Catholic lads and lassies. They're also hard-working but I don't live in Boston anymore, so perhaps I shouldn't judge.
EiT's point is that the Leave campaign is not talking about these people. It is talking about Turks and other moslems.
Let us assume this referendum settles the matter of our membership for forty years like the last one did? How many member nations where there forty years ago versus now?
How many member nations do you think there will be in forty years time? Could it include Turkey?
Only if the UK government, elected by the British people, permits it. I'd say it's a very long way off and is not remotely imminent.
The UK government elected by the British people has done a lot of things they shouldn't. Eg ratifying Lisbon despite promising in their manifesto a referendum.
If independent we will revert to the old principle that no Parliament can bind it's successors. The problem with the EU is that once a decision is made it is irreversible without the nuclear option of Brexit. Lisbon can't be unratified. Turkish accession could not be reversed.
Leave at 3.6 on Betfair. Is the tide turning or is this incredible value?
Shortly there will be a referendum, in which Remain will win, and in so doing utterly shatter the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained us for the century since 1906. This ought to herald another decade of strong, confident, consensual one nation Tory government. Which will finally and irrevocably transform the nature of politics and civic life in Britain.
Cameron and Osborne must despair. Desperately spending the last week trying to get the discussion away from immigration and onto the economy, and Corbyn decides that what Remain needs is one of his cosy philosophical nuanced chats.
He just isn't very bright. More importantly, he is wrong and totally disconnected from most Labour voters.
How long before they notice though?
Actually, Corbyn is quite an interesting phenomenon. He is a combination of not being bright, austere, principled, humourless, thick skinned, asbergery, a throwback to a Salinist apparatchik, insulated, geeky, English eccentric.
He is very watchable mind, unlike Ed Miliband, and the Labour party membership love him.
Leave at 3.6 on Betfair. Is the tide turning or is this incredible value?
Shortly there will be a referendum, in which Remain will win, and in so doing utterly shatter the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained us for the century since 1906. This ought to herald another decade of strong, confident, consensual one nation Tory government. Which will finally and irrevocably transform the nature of politics and civic life in Britain.
I assume you are deliberately channelling Sion Simon. Go on. Post it. You know you want to.
Is always good to remember hubris and nemesis are never far away.
It's not a matter of being a few quid better off. It's a matter of avoiding long-lasting economic damage that will cause significant harm to millions of people. It is a negative, but for me and many others it is a very powerful one.
The fact is that we are so integrated into the EU that the case for withdrawal needs to be powerful and inarguable. The benefits need to be concrete and timetabled to make the downsides worth it. But Leave have provided nothing but speculation, conjecture and plainly false promises.
Is it worth doing significant harm to ourselves to achieve insignificant reductions in immigration? I cannot see it. That's why I'm Remain.
Leave will win though.
The serious and long lasting damage will happen if we remain. Immigration will continue at an unsustainable rate. Most of that immigration will be low skilled and minimum wage, hard working and ambitious but doing nothing for our productivity. In the meantime training of our indigenous population will continue to be regarded as a waste of money. Our population and GDP will continue to rise but our GDP per head will remain static at best.
Whilst in we risk becoming ever more integrated into a declining and uncompetitive market losing further ground to the rest of the world while we faff about with ever more absurd "rights" making our business less viable. We will continue to find that the current terms of trade provide us with a huge and growing structural trading deficit which gradually impoverishes our country.
We risk facing domination by an integrated Euro zone using QMV to drive through their agenda, not ours. Once the referendum is out of the way the pace of this will pick up again.
We will find it more difficult to negotiate opt outs from the various things that we don't like and there will be plenty of them. We are on a bus where we cannot pick the terminus but we continue to move into an ever more depressing neighbourhood.
And we will see all of this because remain will win. Being right will give me no satisfaction at all.
Maybe so. But Leave won't see more than a marginal reduction in immigration and probably not even that. Immigration is high in all Britain's peer countries because that's how open economies work in a globalised world. Governments are just not prepared to justify their policies. It has nothing to do with our membership of the EU.
Leave's main immigration argument is a false prospectus.
David Miliband is very good. I'm surprised he wasn't used more in the campaign. Cameron's been good but DM is at least as good but as a non politician he doesn't carry the baggage,
Ed has a lot to answer for. If he'd disappeared we wouldn't even be having this referendum and no one would have heard of Corbyn
Somehow, after last night's polls, much of the excitement and uncertainty has disappeared from the contest, evidenced by the fact that we've so far seen 220+ posts on this thread. Of late, we'd have seen twice that number by now. Shame .... we are all so driven by polls these days, instead of by the underlying subject matter.
I don't understand how, after what happened last May, people can be so affected by every poll.
Good news for LEAVE, Osborne's on the Peston show. Bad news is that very few will watch it.
In all honesty, I know we all talk about how disliked Osborne is, but he has been very visible, which is odd? I recall in 2010 it was said Cameron was hiding him because of negative reactions he got, but that's certain,y not the case now. I guess the chancellor cannot sit out such a fight, nor can someone wanting to be leader, but the rest of the cabinet really do t seem to have put in any hard yards. If, and I do t think it would happen, remain win comfortably, against all odds Osborne could claim some credit given the effort he put in. The others not so much.
It's not a matter of being a few quid better off. It's a matter of avoiding long-lasting economic damage that will cause significant harm to millions of people. It is a negative, but for me and many others it is a very powerful one.
The fact is that we are so integrated into the EU that the case for withdrawal needs to be powerful and inarguable. The benefits need to be concrete and timetabled to make the downsides worth it. But Leave have provided nothing but speculation, conjecture and plainly false promises.
Is it worth doing significant harm to ourselves to achieve insignificant reductions in immigration? I cannot see it. That's why I'm Remain.
Leave will win though.
The serious and long lasting damage will happen if we remain. Immigration will continue at an unsustainable rate. Most of that immigration will be low skilled and minimum wage, hard working and ambitious but doing nothing for our productivity. In the meantime training of our indigenous population will continue to be regarded as a waste of money. Our population and GDP will continue to rise but our GDP per head will remain static at best.
Whilst in we risk becoming ever more integrated into a declining and uncompetitive market losing further ground to the rest of the world while we faff about with ever more absurd "rights" making our business less viable. We will continue to find that the current terms of trade provide us with a huge and growing structural trading deficit which gradually impoverishes our country.
We risk facing domination by an integrated Euro zone using QMV to drive through their agenda, not ours. Once the referendum is out of the way the pace of this will pick up again.
We will find it more difficult to negotiate opt outs from the various things that we don't like and there will be plenty of them. We are on a bus where we cannot pick the terminus but we continue to move into an ever more depressing neighbourhood.
And we will see all of this because remain will win. Being right will give me no satisfaction at all.
Maybe so. But Leave won't see more than a marginal reduction in immigration and probably not even that. Immigration is high in all Britain's peer countries because that's how open economies work in a globalised world. Governments are just not prepared to justify their policies. It has nothing to do with our membership of the EU.
Leave's main immigration argument is a false prospectus.
Southam's short post illustrates a basic problem. I've no doubt that if you have an unpopular view it's best to change the subject. That's "shifty". Or you can say what you think and risk losing votes. Sometimes, you'll persuade someone, and change the paradigm a little instead of pretending to agree with whatever people want.
Me, I'm tired of evasion. What happened to the idea that democracy involved politicians explaining what they think honestly and voters choosing what they want?
Mr. Charles, be interesting to see if Hamilton repeats his many locked brake escapades of qualifying in the race. If he does, one suspects his insurance premiums may rise.
Somehow, after last night's polls, much of the excitement and uncertainty has disappeared from the contest, evidenced by the fact that we've so far seen 220+ posts on this thread. Of late, we'd have seen twice that number by now. Shame .... we are all so driven by polls these days, instead of by the underlying subject matter.
There is no debate to be had. Both sides are polarised to a religious degree. You'll get a more objective analysis from Arsenal fans on Tottenham and vice versa.
The contest is still on a knife edge. Either side could still win. If Corbyn wanting unlimited immigration into the UK becomes the issue of the final days, Remain will lose. The Labour vote will not come out to endorse that.
Whoever wins, my confident prediction is that the news will subsequently be full of stories of Buyers' Remorse. The debate has been of an extremely poor quality on both sides. That the debate closed down at the point when the disconnected were just starting to engage won't have helped. There's going to be a lot of people saying "Why didn't you tell us THAT would happen?"
Southam's short post illustrates a basic problem. I've no doubt that if you have an unpopular view it's best to change the subject. That's "shifty". Or you can say what you think and risk losing votes. Sometimes, you'll persuade someone, and change the paradigm a little instead of pretending to agree with whatever people want.
Me, I'm tired of evasion. What happened to the idea that democracy involved politicians explaining what they think honestly and voters choosing what they want?
Southam's short post illustrates a basic problem. I've no doubt that if you have an unpopular view it's best to change the subject. That's "shifty". Or you can say what you think and risk losing votes. Sometimes, you'll persuade someone, and change the paradigm a little instead of pretending to agree with whatever people want.
Me, I'm tired of evasion. What happened to the idea that democracy involved politicians explaining what they think honestly and voters choosing what they want?
Getting some of what you want is better than getting none. Compromise is an essential part of democracy.
Southam's short post illustrates a basic problem. I've no doubt that if you have an unpopular view it's best to change the subject. That's "shifty". Or you can say what you think and risk losing votes. Sometimes, you'll persuade someone, and change the paradigm a little instead of pretending to agree with whatever people want.
Me, I'm tired of evasion. What happened to the idea that democracy involved politicians explaining what they think honestly and voters choosing what they want?
Nothing wrong with stating your views. But politics is also about bringing people together, building a coalition to get things done and making a real difference.
Otherwise you might has well just shout at the telly.
Leave at 3.6 on Betfair. Is the tide turning or is this incredible value?
Shortly there will be a referendum, in which Remain will win, and in so doing utterly shatter the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained us for the century since 1906. This ought to herald another decade of strong, confident, consensual one nation Tory government. Which will finally and irrevocably transform the nature of politics and civic life in Britain.
Southam's short post illustrates a basic problem. I've no doubt that if you have an unpopular view it's best to change the subject. That's "shifty". Or you can say what you think and risk losing votes. Sometimes, you'll persuade someone, and change the paradigm a little instead of pretending to agree with whatever people want.
Me, I'm tired of evasion. What happened to the idea that democracy involved politicians explaining what they think honestly and voters choosing what they want?
Southam's short post illustrates a basic problem. I've no doubt that if you have an unpopular view it's best to change the subject. That's "shifty". Or you can say what you think and risk losing votes. Sometimes, you'll persuade someone, and change the paradigm a little instead of pretending to agree with whatever people want.
Me, I'm tired of evasion. What happened to the idea that democracy involved politicians explaining what they think honestly and voters choosing what they want?
It never existed except in dreams, since in the real world people explain things poorly or misunderstand them, voters misinterpret it or don't listen to it, and so on and so forth. Additionally, since a prospectus is put forward by a party to which members nominally ascribe as, whatever their flaws with it they think it the best path for the country, 'evasion' even if just by not talking about some things as they harm that prospectus, is a trade off with total honesty that has always happened.
How points are presented and which arguments are chosen to emphasise and which ones to downplay has always mattered.
If we want totally honest leaders who never evade a point, we may as well not have parties at all, as it seems to me the whole point of a party is you will vote and support some things you don't believe or care about in pursuit of a wider objective, and rarely if ever admit to. Making that trade off with your own beliefs.
Somehow, after last night's polls, much of the excitement and uncertainty has disappeared from the contest, evidenced by the fact that we've so far seen 220+ posts on this thread. Of late, we'd have seen twice that number by now. Shame .... we are all so driven by polls these days, instead of by the underlying subject matter.
Both Cameron/Osborne are playing the same lines this morning they were last week, and the week before: attacking Gove/Boris (personally on the latter) the economy, and FarageFarageFarageFarageFarageFarageFarageFarageFarageFarageFarage. With a little bit of heart appeal to the values of the murdered MP mixed in there, as well, I'm afraid.
That tells you the data shows it is still close.
The main disadvantage for Leave is the events of the last few days probably mean they can no longer go big on immigration, but that won't stop Remain cranking up the amp (until it breaks) on the economy.
Thanks cyclefree. Even if we do vote remain, I suspect the EU will view us with suspicion, and our influence will be diminished somewhat (can you imagine a UK EU president?)
The ending of our EU membership is now a matter of when, not if, IMHO.
But if we do vote Remain, I expect we're in for a rather unpleasant few years of membership.
And, continued schism within the Conservative party.
It will be interesting to see how all parties cast themselves.
I now feel politically far closer to Gisela Stuart than I do George Osborne, for example.
Southam's short post illustrates a basic problem. I've no doubt that if you have an unpopular view it's best to change the subject. That's "shifty". Or you can say what you think and risk losing votes. Sometimes, you'll persuade someone, and change the paradigm a little instead of pretending to agree with whatever people want.
Me, I'm tired of evasion. What happened to the idea that democracy involved politicians explaining what they think honestly and voters choosing what they want?
Nothing wrong with stating your views. But politics is also about bringing people together, building a coalition to get things done and making a real difference.
Otherwise you might has well just shout at the telly.
Well said,
I find Corbyn's frankness at times to be refreshing, even though I disagree with him on a lot. But where that conflicts, at times, with his own party and undermines it, well that's him being a little selfish. He has great potential to argue his case and persuade party and country to back him. But he doesn't have to go out of his way to make things difficult for his party. Who does that help?
Good news for LEAVE, Osborne's on the Peston show. Bad news is that very few will watch it.
In all honesty, I know we all talk about how disliked Osborne is, but he has been very visible, which is odd? I recall in 2010 it was said Cameron was hiding him because of negative reactions he got, but that's certain,y not the case now. I guess the chancellor cannot sit out such a fight, nor can someone wanting to be leader, but the rest of the cabinet really do t seem to have put in any hard yards. If, and I do t think it would happen, remain win comfortably, against all odds Osborne could claim some credit given the effort he put in. The others not so much.
I omitted mentioning his 2% rating as a Leader by the voters etc to back up the assertion on the levle of his dislike. Perhaps what Osborne has tried to do is seize the stage and get a REMAIN win. A win which he would be a very visible component and then be able to say to the tory party that look how clever he is, he won the referendum....
er....and Dave's target of tens of thousands? That isn;t a false prospectus?
At least Corbyn is honest.
Exactly. He hasn't particularly argued for mass immigration, simply said truthfully that it's part of the package and we can't wish it away, so we should deal with the consequences through the immigration impact fund and working to make conditions better across the whole continent. Are we really better served with leaders who say oh yes, I understand your concern, and pretend to set targets that they KNOW will be missed?
Thanks cyclefree. Even if we do vote remain, I suspect the EU will view us with suspicion, and our influence will be diminished somewhat (can you imagine a UK EU president?)
The ending of our EU membership is now a matter of when, not if, IMHO.
But if we do vote Remain, I expect we're in for a rather unpleasant few years of membership.
And, continued schism within the Conservative party.
It will be interesting to see how all parties cast themselves.
I now feel politically far closer to Gisela Stuart than I do George Osborne, for example.
She will be one of the few people on either side to come out of this with any credit.
Somehow, after last night's polls, much of the excitement and uncertainty has disappeared from the contest, evidenced by the fact that we've so far seen 220+ posts on this thread. Of late, we'd have seen twice that number by now. Shame .... we are all so driven by polls these days, instead of by the underlying subject matter.
Which is odd as the polls weren't that remarkable. There had been massive swings to leave, some swing back to remain, which many long predicted would happen I. The final week, was to be expected. It's not over.
Good morning all. I've been quiet because I had a lie-in, which is a ancient British folkway that I'm striving to preserve. All I have to offer at the moment is a potpourri.
- Lovely to see JackW back on his virtual feet; take it easy young man, you've been sorely missed.
- Corbyn should not be allowed to speak without a minder .
- Ronaldo's fiasco. Couldn't happen to a nicer guy, could it?
I sense that Leavers' heads are down a little this morning, which is a shame. I can't offer much comfort, I just don't think Leave have done enough. It might come down to differential turnout, but that's a forlorn hope.
As Cyclefree (the MVP of this campaign) says, how we proceed to address the stark divide in the country is our great challenge. Based on the sneering, race-card-playing metropolitan types we've seen both on PB and in the wider sphere, I'm not optimistic.
Finally, I shall aim for pseuds corner by relating a parable about the Travelling Salesman , a well known undergrad question we use to demonstrate various optimisation techniques. It's easy to plan the shortest route between two cities. It becomes much harder as you add more. Imagine trying to plot the shortest, most efficient route between all the state capitals in the USA.
A traditional way of approach is to generate a route, then make many small changes. If one of the new routes is shorter, use that as your new baseline. Rinse. Repeat. The issue is that eventually you might not be able to make any changes that improve the route, yet still have not achieved a good solution. This is called a local minima. Any change makes things worse. In computer science, we have tools to deal with local minima. It's harder with nations .
That is the EU today, in my view. It is stuck in a local minima. The Eurozone should pursue full monetary union. Non-EZ countries should pursue a much looser associate status based on the four principles, but including welfare and health harmonisation. Yet it can't. Each interim stage is worse than the status quo.
Comments
https://twitter.com/spajw/status/744449759478489088
Mr. Jonathan, there was a lovely moment last night when we all united around laughing at Ronaldo.
Remainers won't bother.
A passionate remainer friend thinks the leave campaign is essentially obese mobility scooter driving white people who haven't worked for three generations and won;t do the jobs immigrants do for peanuts.
Is that labour policy for the next general election?
They can wave goodbye to at least fifty seats.
Good to hear that JackW is still in the land of the sentient beings and returning to form. My betting strategy has gone completely wayward without the reliability of his lucrative cheeks...
See you back for POTUS
Nevertheless, I look forward to labour's unlimited immigration platform in 2020.
If he leads Labour into the next election it is entirely plausible to foresee occasions that he will appear in interviews disagreeing with his own party's manifesto.
Shame .... we are all so driven by polls these days, instead of by the underlying subject matter.
@WhiteWednesday: Marr: "Is there any upper limit to free movement into this country?"
Corbyn: "I don't think you can have one."
#marr #EUref
Not unlimited immigration. Free movement as a key component of a free market.
Can it be long before we have a Modest Proposal for the Working Class White People of England?
Gove on Marr said the Leave campaign was not Faragist because it included people like Kate Hoey...
...who appeared with Farage.
Oh....
So just unlimited immigration FROM THE EU, then.
Glad you cleared that up.
If independent we will revert to the old principle that no Parliament can bind it's successors. The problem with the EU is that once a decision is made it is irreversible without the nuclear option of Brexit. Lisbon can't be unratified. Turkish accession could not be reversed.
No, because Corbyn's policy of unlimited immigration is linked to throwing the Tories in the sea.....
He is very watchable mind, unlike Ed Miliband, and the Labour party membership love him.
http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
But the good news is Mike's back tonight and I can put my feet up now.
Leave's main immigration argument is a false prospectus.
Ed has a lot to answer for. If he'd disappeared we wouldn't even be having this referendum and no one would have heard of Corbyn
Me, I'm tired of evasion. What happened to the idea that democracy involved politicians explaining what they think honestly and voters choosing what they want?
And of course David Cameron has just shared a platform with him on the Cox wailfest.
er....and Dave's target of tens of thousands? That isn;t a false prospectus?
At least Corbyn is honest.
Whoever wins, my confident prediction is that the news will subsequently be full of stories of Buyers' Remorse. The debate has been of an extremely poor quality on both sides. That the debate closed down at the point when the disconnected were just starting to engage won't have helped. There's going to be a lot of people saying "Why didn't you tell us THAT would happen?"
Otherwise you might has well just shout at the telly.
How points are presented and which arguments are chosen to emphasise and which ones to downplay has always mattered.
If we want totally honest leaders who never evade a point, we may as well not have parties at all, as it seems to me the whole point of a party is you will vote and support some things you don't believe or care about in pursuit of a wider objective, and rarely if ever admit to. Making that trade off with your own beliefs.
That tells you the data shows it is still close.
The main disadvantage for Leave is the events of the last few days probably mean they can no longer go big on immigration, but that won't stop Remain cranking up the amp (until it breaks) on the economy.
Corbyn's comments will doubtless be lauded by labour party members, though. The voters, however....
I now feel politically far closer to Gisela Stuart than I do George Osborne, for example.
I find Corbyn's frankness at times to be refreshing, even though I disagree with him on a lot. But where that conflicts, at times, with his own party and undermines it, well that's him being a little selfish. He has great potential to argue his case and persuade party and country to back him. But he doesn't have to go out of his way to make things difficult for his party. Who does that help?
http://order-order.com/2016/06/19/corbyn-free-movement-means-cant-upper-limit-immigration/
- Lovely to see JackW back on his virtual feet; take it easy young man, you've been sorely missed.
- Corbyn should not be allowed to speak without a minder
- Ronaldo's fiasco. Couldn't happen to a nicer guy, could it?
I sense that Leavers' heads are down a little this morning, which is a shame. I can't offer much comfort, I just don't think Leave have done enough. It might come down to differential turnout, but that's a forlorn hope.
As Cyclefree (the MVP of this campaign) says, how we proceed to address the stark divide in the country is our great challenge. Based on the sneering, race-card-playing metropolitan types we've seen both on PB and in the wider sphere, I'm not optimistic.
Finally, I shall aim for pseuds corner by relating a parable about the Travelling Salesman , a well known undergrad question we use to demonstrate various optimisation techniques. It's easy to plan the shortest route between two cities. It becomes much harder as you add more. Imagine trying to plot the shortest, most efficient route between all the state capitals in the USA.
A traditional way of approach is to generate a route, then make many small changes. If one of the new routes is shorter, use that as your new baseline. Rinse. Repeat. The issue is that eventually you might not be able to make any changes that improve the route, yet still have not achieved a good solution. This is called a local minima. Any change makes things worse. In computer science, we have tools to deal with local minima. It's harder with nations
That is the EU today, in my view. It is stuck in a local minima. The Eurozone should pursue full monetary union. Non-EZ countries should pursue a much looser associate status based on the four principles, but including welfare and health harmonisation. Yet it can't. Each interim stage is worse than the status quo.