The biggest reasons to vote Remain aren't complicated. Britain is culturally, historically and geographically part of Europe; and we should be friends with the countries closest to us. Britain should break the tie with the US. De Gaulle was in the right direction: it's the continent or the Atlantic alliance.
Against that, there's immigration. British people were never seriously asked whether we wanted immigration at such a high level, and this is the first serious chance tell the elite and its scribes "No we don't".
Nope. Culturally, legally and historically we are far closer to the US and the rest of the Anglophone world than to Europe. That will always be the case no matter how much the Europhiles might try and claim otherwise.
Edit: Except for TSE of course who is clearly more French than British in his attitudes and behaviour.
We are certainly close to the Anglophone world outside North America from a cultural perspective, but I would argue with the US. Personally speaking, I feel a lot more at home in any European country than I do in the US. I love it over there, but it is a very different place and its outlook is very different - from gun control, to the role of government, to welfare, even to small things like tipping. Go to Australia or New Zealand and the links are immediately obvious and clearly very deep.
Just got a small booklet leaflet through the door from the SNP explaining why I should vote remain for a brighter future. Interesting because it is the first hand delivered leaflet from either side we have had (got a couple in the post). Just maybe the SNP are going to throw some of their weight behind Remain after all.
It may prove very useful in our household too. My wife finds herself unsure how to vote at an election for the first time in her life. She really likes Ruth and Cameron and was wavering towards remain but a picture of a smiling Nicola is worth a thousand words....
;-)
Has Gove's pledge to devolve repatriated fisheries, agriculture powers and Home Office migration quotas (for Scotland) to Holyrood in the event of Brexit cut through at all up there?
(99% sure it hasn't, which is a shame)
No. There has been no Leave campaign to talk of in Scotland at all (and not much remain one until now either).
One example, on Friday I drove to Aberdeen and back. In April/May the fields were full of large signs for the SNP, the Tories and even the odd Lib Dem. On Friday there was not a single one. Ir's like this is happening to someone else.
There have been a few Leave/Grassroots Out stalls in central Edinburgh and Remain have definitely been out in a small way with stalls round my bit of north Edinburgh. But, no posters, and very few leaflets - about 20% of what I got in the Holyrood election.
It does feel a bit like its not our fight. I expect we'll turn up on Thursday, but most of the chat amongst friends and family shows our heart isn't really in it.
The reason there are fewer posters and campaigners in Scotland than in the Holyrood elections is because opinion is so one sided, according to yougov today 63% of Scots will vote Remain and just 38% Leave. Yet Scots will turnout, Yougov also has 77% of Scots certain to vote, a figure even higher than the UK total of 73% and over 20% higher than the 55% of Scots who voted in the Scottish Parliament elections. Indeed with Yougov having it 51% Remain 49% Leave across the UK Scottish voters could be decisive for Remain! Outside London it is the only region Yougov shows with a Remain lead
Tbh, the main reason there are fewer campaigners in Scotland is that we are just 6 weeks out of a hard fought Holyrood election. I know some people who are very active in the main parties and none of them are pounding the stairs this time, they gave it all in the election and want to spend time with families.
True but Remain will win a landslide in regardless so much less point
Unless you're saying that while Leave is forever, if we do vote Remain, we might get another chance relatively soon?
Leave is indeed forever, and in a FPTP election you don't even need 50% of the electorate to elect a government with a thumping majority on a manifesto commitment to leave the EU, so at worst we get the chance to express a new opinion every 5 years.
Anyone who isn't sure should vote Remain.
Where's the evidence for your suggestion that Leave is forever? Much as I'd like it to be true, I don't see it being any more set in stone than Remaining.
For Leave to be reversed, two conditions need to be met:
- A majority UK government and most likely a majority of the British people need to support rejoining in a referendum. - Every single member state of the EU has to support us rejoining.
Both of these conditions would be politically impossible for a very, very long time once we've left, particularly in the context of our original application being vetoed by De Gaulle.
Unless you're saying that while Leave is forever, if we do vote Remain, we might get another chance relatively soon?
Leave is indeed forever, and in a FPTP election you don't even need 50% of the electorate to elect a government with a thumping majority on a manifesto commitment to leave the EU, so at worst we get the chance to express a new opinion every 5 years.
Anyone who isn't sure should vote Remain.
Where's the evidence for your suggestion that Leave is forever? Much as I'd like it to be true, I don't see it being any more set in stone than Remaining.
For Leave to be reversed, two conditions need to be met:
- A majority UK government and most likely a majority of the British people need to support rejoining in a referendum. - Every single member state of the EU has to support us rejoining.
Both of these conditions would be politically impossible for a very, very long time once we've left, particularly in the context of our original application being vetoed by De Gaulle.
Leave is only forever once we leave. Until we do, we are a member state and can, presumably, say we have changed our minds. let's see how people feel about leaving in six months or a year when the possible consequences have been more fully digested. A few of the Leave campaign claims may have been found wanting by then.
'Almost from the off, and certainly since the going got rough, the Remain leadership in Downing Street has given out what seemed an almost explicit message that they know nothing about the people they govern – and what they do know, they don’t like.
This strikes me as bizarre, as well as deeply wrong-headed. How can these politicians, who have famously come through the most quintessentially British educational institutions and established channels of national life, possibly be so ignorant (and unappreciative) of the instincts and character of their electorate?
...In a peculiar way, the Remain leadership seems to have the same flawed – almost childlike – illusion. They appear to think that we will simply believe whatever they tell us however much it conflicts with our own lived experience. They may be in for a surprise.'
Unless you're saying that while Leave is forever, if we do vote Remain, we might get another chance relatively soon?
Leave is indeed forever, and in a FPTP election you don't even need 50% of the electorate to elect a government with a thumping majority on a manifesto commitment to leave the EU, so at worst we get the chance to express a new opinion every 5 years.
Anyone who isn't sure should vote Remain.
Where's the evidence for your suggestion that Leave is forever? Much as I'd like it to be true, I don't see it being any more set in stone than Remaining.
For Leave to be reversed, two conditions need to be met:
- A majority UK government and most likely a majority of the British people need to support rejoining in a referendum. - Every single member state of the EU has to support us rejoining.
Both of these conditions would be politically impossible for a very, very long time once we've left, particularly in the context of our original application being vetoed by De Gaulle.
Leave is only forever once we leave. Until we do, we are a member state and can, presumably, say we have changed our minds. let's see how people feel about leaving in six months or a year when the possible consequences have been more fully digested. A few of the Leave campaign claims may have been found wanting by then.
Unless you're saying that while Leave is forever, if we do vote Remain, we might get another chance relatively soon?
Leave is indeed forever, and in a FPTP election you don't even need 50% of the electorate to elect a government with a thumping majority on a manifesto commitment to leave the EU, so at worst we get the chance to express a new opinion every 5 years.
Anyone who isn't sure should vote Remain.
Where's the evidence for your suggestion that Leave is forever? Much as I'd like it to be true, I don't see it being any more set in stone than Remaining.
For Leave to be reversed, two conditions need to be met:
- A majority UK government and most likely a majority of the British people need to support rejoining in a referendum. - Every single member state of the EU has to support us rejoining.
Both of these conditions would be politically impossible for a very, very long time once we've left, particularly in the context of our original application being vetoed by De Gaulle.
In practice this is more likely to be a majority *English* government and most likely a majority of the *English* people. I don't know if that makes it more likely or less.
Just got a small booklet leaflet through the door from the SNP explaining why I should vote remain for a brighter future. Interesting because it is the first hand delivered leaflet from either side we have had (got a couple in the post). Just maybe the SNP are going to throw some of their weight behind Remain after all.
It may prove very useful in our household too. My wife finds herself unsure how to vote at an election for the first time in her life. She really likes Ruth and Cameron and was wavering towards remain but a picture of a smiling Nicola is worth a thousand words....
;-)
Has Gove's pledge to devolve repatriated fisheries, agriculture powers and Home Office migration quotas (for Scotland) to Holyrood in the event of Brexit cut through at all up there?
(99% sure it hasn't, which is a shame)
No. There has been no Leave campaign to talk of in Scotland at all (and not much remain one until now either).
One example, on ne else.
There have been a few Leave/Grassroots Out stalls in central Edinburgh and Remain have definitely been out inn't really in it.
The reason there are fewer posters and campaigners in Scotland than in the Holyrood elections is because opinion is so one sided, according to yougov today 63% of Scots will vote Remain and just 38% Leave. Yet Scots will turnout, Yougov also has 77% of Scots certain to vote, a figure even higher than the UK total of 73% and over 20% higher than the 55% of Scots who voted in the Scottish Parliament elections. Indeed with Yougov having it 51% Remain 49% Leave across the UK Scottish voters could be decisive for Remain! Outside London it is the only region Yougov shows with a Remain lead
Tbh, the main reason there are fewer campaigners in Scotland is that we are just 6 weeks out of a hard fought Holyrood election. I know some people who are very active in the main parties and none of them are pounding the stairs this time, they gave it all in the election and want to spend time with families.
Indeed but London and Wales also has just had big elections. Remain will win a landslide in Scotland regardless, the only Scottish voters consistently backing Leave are UKIP voters and there are not many of those north of the border. By contrast south of Hadrian's Wall it is literally neck and neck
Just listened to Jack Dromery (Mr Harman) on LBC saying he listened to Michael Gove this morning on Marr and was appalled by his language re immigration. He accused him of playing the race card. I truly despair about the Labour Party; even though they have lost Scotland and many working-class voters, they still are trying to close down this debate, as they have been doing for years. Given what Jeremy Corbyn also said on Marr, then it's clear that this subject will just run and run, but in the end someone will have to come up with a practical, common sense solution to this problem. It is not going to go away.
Unless you're saying that while Leave is forever, if we do vote Remain, we might get another chance relatively soon?
Leave is indeed forever, and in a FPTP election you don't even need 50% of the electorate to elect a government with a thumping majority on a manifesto commitment to leave the EU, so at worst we get the chance to express a new opinion every 5 years.
Anyone who isn't sure should vote Remain.
Where's the evidence for your suggestion that Leave is forever? Much as I'd like it to be true, I don't see it being any more set in stone than Remaining.
For Leave to be reversed, two conditions need to be met:
- A majority UK government and most likely a majority of the British people need to support rejoining in a referendum. - Every single member state of the EU has to support us rejoining.
Both of these conditions would be politically impossible for a very, very long time once we've left, particularly in the context of our original application being vetoed by De Gaulle.
Obviously it's not forever, which last time I looked was a very long time indeed. But I can't see a way back once we've left in my lifetime, for the reasons above. Plus, I believe joining the EU now requires specific sign-up to the Euro.
However, what I can see potentially is a Vote Leave on Thursday, followed by political and economic chaos, followed rapidly by mass buyers remorse, and a process whereby we don't actually end up leaving. I don't put a very high probability on this, but there is a possibility I think.
Unless you're saying that while Leave is forever, if we do vote Remain, we might get another chance relatively soon?
Leave is indeed forever, and in a FPTP election you don't even need 50% of the electorate to elect a government with a thumping majority on a manifesto commitment to leave the EU, so at worst we get the chance to express a new opinion every 5 years.
Anyone who isn't sure should vote Remain.
Where's the evidence for your suggestion that Leave is forever? Much as I'd like it to be true, I don't see it being any more set in stone than Remaining.
For Leave to be reversed, two conditions need to be met:
- A majority UK government and most likely a majority of the British people need to support rejoining in a referendum. - Every single member state of the EU has to support us rejoining.
Both of these conditions would be politically impossible for a very, very long time once we've left, particularly in the context of our original application being vetoed by De Gaulle.
Leave is only forever once we leave. Until we do, we are a member state and can, presumably, say we have changed our minds. let's see how people feel about leaving in six months or a year when the possible consequences have been more fully digested. A few of the Leave campaign claims may have been found wanting by then.
Is Article 50 undoable?
Its timeline seems to be permanently extendable if both sides agree, but should the UK want to revoke its invocation I am sure that it could be sorted out.
Boris coming out in favour of an amnesty for illegal immigrants is a bit of a gamble. Doesn't that give plenty more an incentive to try to get here?
Furthermore, a vote to leave the EU could be the starting gun for more immigration. Many in the EU might see the next year or so as the last chance to get into Britain. Of course, the Remain campaign can't really make this argument as it would acknowledge that in addition to those who have already come to Britain, there will be more contemplating making the move.
If Trump does have a 10% chance of not becoming the GOP nominee (as per betfair), then Cruz is very well positioned to win the support of delegates voting with their conscience.
In the absence of decent liquidity @ >100/1 on the GOP market, I've taken what I can get @ 999/1 on the main POTUS market.
This isn't a tip btw, just a fun (and IMO, value) lottery bet on convention chaos.
If Trump does have a 10% chance of not becoming the GOP nominee (as per betfair), then Cruz is very well positioned. He must make up at least 10% of that 10%, surely?
The convention in Cleveland is going to be packed with delegates sympathetic to him.
In the absence of decent liquidity @ >100/1 on the GOP market, I've taken what I can get @ 999/1 on the main POTUS market.
Hasn't Cruz indicated he doesn't want it in these circumstances? Rather keep powder dry for 2020.
Unless you're saying that while Leave is forever, if we do vote Remain, we might get another chance relatively soon?
Leave is indeed forever, and in a FPTP election you don't even need 50% of the electorate to elect a government with a thumping majority on a manifesto commitment to leave the EU, so at worst we get the chance to express a new opinion every 5 years.
Anyone who isn't sure should vote Remain.
Where's the evidence for your suggestion that Leave is forever? Much as I'd like it to be true, I don't see it being any more set in stone than Remaining.
For Leave to be reversed, two conditions need to be met:
- A majority UK government and most likely a majority of the British people need to support rejoining in a referendum. - Every single member state of the EU has to support us rejoining.
Both of these conditions would be politically impossible for a very, very long time once we've left, particularly in the context of our original application being vetoed by De Gaulle.
Leave is only forever once we leave. Until we do, we are a member state and can, presumably, say we have changed our minds. let's see how people feel about leaving in six months or a year when the possible consequences have been more fully digested. A few of the Leave campaign claims may have been found wanting by then.
Is Article 50 undoable?
No but probably yes. :-)
By which I mean there is no explicit ability within the treaty to undo it. But almost certainly if it was needed there would be a workaround to allow it to happen.
Unless you're saying that while Leave is forever, if we do vote Remain, we might get another chance relatively soon?
Leave is indeed forever, and in a FPTP election you don't even need 50% of the electorate to elect a government with a thumping majority on a manifesto commitment to leave the EU, so at worst we get the chance to express a new opinion every 5 years.
Anyone who isn't sure should vote Remain.
Where's the evidence for your suggestion that Leave is forever? Much as I'd like it to be true, I don't see it being any more set in stone than Remaining.
For Leave to be reversed, two conditions need to be met:
- A majority UK government and most likely a majority of the British people need to support rejoining in a referendum. - Every single member state of the EU has to support us rejoining.
Both of these conditions would be politically impossible for a very, very long time once we've left, particularly in the context of our original application being vetoed by De Gaulle.
Leave is only forever once we leave. Until we do, we are a member state and can, presumably, say we have changed our minds. let's see how people feel about leaving in six months or a year when the possible consequences have been more fully digested. A few of the Leave campaign claims may have been found wanting by then.
Is Article 50 undoable?
Its timeline seems to be permanently extendable if both sides agree, but should the UK want to revoke its invocation I am sure that it could be sorted out.
Yes I think this is not outside the realms of possibility, but it would involve some moral hazard. If it were seen that invoking Article 50 was a sure-fire way to get a better deal in your favour then every country will think they can get away with the same.
The likes of Schaeuble would push for the referendum result to be respected come what may.
The Final Wembley debate will not be as easy a win for leave as their ITV one was - Boris, Gisela Stuart and Andrea Leadsom are up against a more formidable line up of Sadiq Khan, Francis O'Grady and Ruth Davidson. It will be very interesting but I think Sadiq Khan will get much the better of Boris. However, as with everything in this campaign only a few more days to 'put up' with it
I would have thought that Remain would try to get someone in who might plausibly be thought to speak for middle England.
The vote will be won by labour voting remain, together with big votes in favour in London and Scotland so in my opinion the panel is perfectly targeted at the audience remain need to win over
6m voters London and Scotland 24m voters the rest
Isn't it 6m London, 6m Scotland, so 12m (one third of the total) between them?
The population and the voting electorate are different.
At the last election roughly 6m Scots and Londoners combined voted.
Roughly four times that number voted in the remainder of England and Wales.
London and Scotland generate an enormous amount of conversation for a relatively small proportion of the population.
Yes but London and Scotland will almost certainly win the referendum for Remain if Remain do win by less than a landslide, the North, the South and the Midlands and Wales back Leave in almost every poll it is only the comfortable Remain lead in London and the huge Remain lead in Scotland which gives Remain a narrow lead across the UK as a whole
"While diplomats understand any need for a change of government or prime minister may cause some delays, Germany and France are in agreement that formal detailed talks with a Brexit government should begin as soon as possible, and only under the umbrella of Article 50.
“What would be refused is a political decision to leave without formal notification,” said one senior aide to the leader of a big eurozone state. “It would create huge uncertainty. It is tactics and it would not be accepted. We would say we will not start any negotiation of any kind without a notification.” "
Others can confirm, but I think this week the FT has no paywall on referendum articles.
If Trump does have a 10% chance of not becoming the GOP nominee (as per betfair), then Cruz is very well positioned. He must make up at least 10% of that 10%, surely?
The convention in Cleveland is going to be packed with delegates sympathetic to him.
In the absence of decent liquidity @ >100/1 on the GOP market, I've taken what I can get @ 999/1 on the main POTUS market.
The talk on twitter was about paying him to drop out. Who could afford the nomination? It sounds like we're talking about the range of 0.25 to 2 billion dollars.
I hadn't realised until I heard Michael Gove say this morning that the Leave campaign had produced a 'Manifesto' perhaps they need to push this more and try and instil in voters' minds that some serious thinking has been done on the economic arguments, etc.
I see the BBC cut away from Boris Johnson at their rally this morning. I find myself gripping the armchair when I see him, you can never be sure he is going to hold it together and not go off-piste (which he did). He was excellent on the ITV debate but he needs to find that extra discipline, which he often lacks. I see Ruth Davidson is on the BBC Debate on Tuesday and I gather is not a Boris fan!
The biggest reasons to vote Remain aren't complicated. Britain is culturally, historically and geographically part of Europe; and we should be friends with the countries closest to us. Britain should break the tie with the US. De Gaulle was in the right direction: it's the continent or the Atlantic alliance.
Against that, there's immigration. British people were never seriously asked whether we wanted immigration at such a high level, and this is the first serious chance tell the elite and its scribes "No we don't".
Nope. Culturally, legally and historically we are far closer to the US and the rest of the Anglophone world than to Europe. That will always be the case no matter how much the Europhiles might try and claim otherwise.
Edit: Except for TSE of course who is clearly more French than British in his attitudes and behaviour.
The geometry is not linear. The US is closer to France in some respects than to the UK, and to Germany in other respects.
Your view seems to be in the tradition of the post-Suez lurch to subservience to America that Cyclefree wrote about yesterday.
Nope not at all. If you note I specifically excluded 'politically' from my list of ways we are closer to the US than the EU. It is undeniable that we are culturally closer to the US if only by dint of the fact we speak the same language. Our modern culture is inextricably linked with the US as far as music, TV and film are concerned whilst at the same time we share cultural references with the rest of the Anglophone world which simply don't exist with the rest of Europe.
This is in no way to play down the wonder of European culture but for better or worse we have a far greater cultural affinity with the US today than we do with Europe.
And that is before we even get onto legal systems or world view/philosophical outlook which is very much driven by language affinity.
I think we just have fundamentally different world views.
I see Britain as an indivisible part of Europe. This is not to say that Europe is a homogenised mass, or that we do not represent a distinct strand of its civilisation but we are very much part of it and have played a crucial role over many centuries in making Europe as a whole what it is today. This is a completely different historical experience from the US.
Both language and utterly different views on the role of the state and law will always set us apart from the rest of Europe. I have spent much of my life living and working outside of the UK and find the attitude of much of Europe to the role of the state in people's eyes to be utterly alien.
If Trump does have a 10% chance of not becoming the GOP nominee (as per betfair), then Cruz is very well positioned. He must make up at least 10% of that 10%, surely?
The convention in Cleveland is going to be packed with delegates sympathetic to him.
In the absence of decent liquidity @ >100/1 on the GOP market, I've taken what I can get @ 999/1 on the main POTUS market.
The talk on twitter was about paying him to drop out. Who could afford the nomination? It sounds like we're talking about the range of 0.25 to 2 billion dollars.
"Neutralize the right wing extremist by voting to Leave".
And he's right. The only thing that kills off Farage/UKIP, revitalises the Lib Dems as a true liberal party, and kills off immigration as a public issue (by giving them control over skills/numbers) is to Vote Leave.
So we neutralise right wing extremists by giving them what they want? Really? Is that the best Boris can do?
Tragedy is that it won't shut any of them up. The extremist will move on to fresh meat. Wonder what their next target will be.
There is a persuasive case anyway for ending the free and uncontrolled movement of labour within the EU, something that a large majority of people in the UK agree with. The fact that some extremist far right nutters agree with that shouldn't be a reason for not doing so. Johnson has now happened to come up with a further reason for ending open borders within the EU - that voting Leave to do so would deprive the far right of the fuel they need to thrive, at least in the UK, and I do not accept your premise that there is any other issue which could have the same effect on their fortunes. If the likes of Sweden and Denmark followed suit, it would have a similar effect on the thriving far right parties there, too.
No, I think that's mistaken. The far right doesn't depend on majority support, it depends on the feelings of the fringe. They would immediately move on to (a) "now Britain has the power to halt immigration the Government is still letting them in, they're traitors and (b) "it's time to throw the aliens out of our society".
I can see why governments in hock to business interests might want a continuing supply of very cheap labour to keep low pay in place, and indeed Stuart Rose let the cat out of the bag when he said just that. So I'm happy to change my point to just say then that governments would have the power to marginalise the far right if they chose to use the power over EU migration that they had acquired.
You might be correct that the far right would move on to "time to throw them out". That's an extremist position, and it wouldn't appeal at all in my view.
"While diplomats understand any need for a change of government or prime minister may cause some delays, Germany and France are in agreement that formal detailed talks with a Brexit government should begin as soon as possible, and only under the umbrella of Article 50.
“What would be refused is a political decision to leave without formal notification,” said one senior aide to the leader of a big eurozone state. “It would create huge uncertainty. It is tactics and it would not be accepted. We would say we will not start any negotiation of any kind without a notification.” "
Others can confirm, but I think this week the FT has no paywall on referendum articles.
Britain (and the rest of the civilised world) does not break treaties. I may be mistaken but I am pretty sure we have never violated a treaty in modern times. Invoking Article 50 is the right and proper way to leave the EU and any other way would be needless provocation and do a disservice to the rest of the EU.
I think we just have fundamentally different world views.
I see Britain as an indivisible part of Europe. This is not to say that Europe is a homogenised mass, or that we do not represent a distinct strand of its civilisation but we are very much part of it and have played a crucial role over many centuries in making Europe as a whole what it is today. This is a completely different historical experience from the US.
Both language and utterly different views on the role of the state and law will always set us apart from the rest of Europe. I have spent much of my life living and working outside of the UK and find the attitude of much of Europe to the role of the state in people's eyes to be utterly alien.
Do UK attitudes to the NHS give you any reason to doubt your conclusions?
Unless you're saying that while Leave is forever, if we do vote Remain, we might get another chance relatively soon?
Leave is indeed forever, and in a FPTP election you don't even need 50% of the electorate to elect a government with a thumping majority on a manifesto commitment to leave the EU, so at worst we get the chance to express a new opinion every 5 years.
Anyone who isn't sure should vote Remain.
Where's the evidence for your suggestion that Leave is forever? Much as I'd like it to be true, I don't see it being any more set in stone than Remaining.
For Leave to be reversed, two conditions need to be met:
- A majority UK government and most likely a majority of the British people need to support rejoining in a referendum. - Every single member state of the EU has to support us rejoining.
Both of these conditions would be politically impossible for a very, very long time once we've left, particularly in the context of our original application being vetoed by De Gaulle.
I suspect that referenda will become less popular amongst politicians since the Scottish Independence and now this one have been so close. I suspect that the major parties will put the policies in their manifestos and not need referenda. They may have got Wilson and Cameron (twice) off a hook but they are now looking too dangerous.
The Final Wembley debate will not be as easy a win for leave as their ITV one was - Boris, Gisela Stuart and Andrea Leadsom are up against a more formidable line up of Sadiq Khan, Francis O'Grady and Ruth Davidson. It will be very interesting but I think Sadiq Khan will get much the better of Boris. However, as with everything in this campaign only a few more days to 'put up' with it
I would have thought that Remain would try to get someone in who might plausibly be thought to speak for middle England.
The vote will be won by labour voting remain, together with big votes in favour in London and Scotland so in my opinion the panel is perfectly targeted at the audience remain need to win over
6m voters London and Scotland 24m voters the rest
Isn't it 6m London, 6m Scotland, so 12m (one third of the total) between them?
The population and the voting electorate are different.
At the last election roughly 6m Scots and Londoners combined voted.
Roughly four times that number voted in the remainder of England and Wales.
London and Scotland generate an enormous amount of conversation for a relatively small proportion of the population.
Yes but London and Scotland will almost certainly win the referendum for Remain if Remain do win by less than a landslide, the North, the South and the Midlands and Wales back Leave in almost every poll it is only the comfortable Remain lead in London and the huge Remain lead in Scotland which gives Remain a narrow lead across the UK as a whole
It is undeniable that we are culturally closer to the US if only by dint of the fact we speak the same language. Our modern culture is inextricably linked with the US as far as music, TV and film are concerned whilst at the same time we share cultural references with the rest of the Anglophone world which simply don't exist with the rest of Europe.
Such as? Shows such as Mr Bean are known extensively outside of the Anglophone world. Music? Music that isn't modern is still listened to a lot: Mozart, Beethoven, Strauss, Wagner, Tchaikovsky. Are you saying this is part of "our culture" but not "our modern culture"? If so, something's going on with how you use "modern" Film and TV: yes, and let's do something about it. There are also Catholicism and Protestantism: cultural outlooks that are are not at all US-focused. And few people in Britain or anywhere else in Europe believe there should be a generalised "right to bear arms".
This is in no way to play down the wonder of European culture but for better or worse we have a far greater cultural affinity with the US today than we do with Europe.
And that is before we even get onto legal systems or world view/philosophical outlook which is very much driven by language affinity.
The analytical-versus-continental thing has no mileage, and in any case says little about most British people's "world view". The dominance of US culture has used the English language as a medium. Better to be partners with our near neighbours than a vassal state of the US.
The Final Wembley debate will not be as easy a win for leave as their ITV one was - Boris, Gisela Stuart and Andrea Leadsom are up against a more formidable line up of Sadiq Khan, Francis O'Grady and Ruth Davidson. It will be very interesting but I think Sadiq Khan will get much the better of Boris. However, as with everything in this campaign only a few more days to 'put up' with it
I would have thought that Remain would try to get someone in who might plausibly be thought to speak for middle England.
The vote will be won by labour voting remain, together with big votes in favour in London and Scotland so in my opinion the panel is perfectly targeted at the audience remain need to win over
6m voters London and Scotland 24m voters the rest
Isn't it 6m London, 6m Scotland, so 12m (one third of the total) between them?
The population and the voting electorate are different.
At the last election roughly 6m Scots and Londoners combined voted.
Roughly four times that number voted in the remainder of England and Wales.
London and Scotland generate an enormous amount of conversation for a relatively small proportion of the population.
Yes but London and Scotland will almost certainly win the referendum for Remain if Remain do win by less than a landslide, the North, the South and the Midlands and Wales back Leave in almost every poll it is only the comfortable Remain lead in London and the huge Remain lead in Scotland which gives Remain a narrow lead across the UK as a whole
What is your central projection and MOE?
52% Remain 48% Leave, MOE 2% either way
So within MOE it could be 50/50?
Indeed
So then we're down to points of a percentage... Something like REMAIN 50.4% and LEAVE 50.6% not out of the question... So LEAVE could just pip it?
Unless you're saying that while Leave is forever, if we do vote Remain, we might get another chance relatively soon?
Leave is indeed forever, and in a FPTP election you don't even need 50% of the electorate to elect a government with a thumping majority on a manifesto commitment to leave the EU, so at worst we get the chance to express a new opinion every 5 years.
Anyone who isn't sure should vote Remain.
Where's the evidence for your suggestion that Leave is forever? Much as I'd like it to be true, I don't see it being any more set in stone than Remaining.
For Leave to be reversed, two conditions need to be met:
- A majority UK government and most likely a majority of the British people need to support rejoining in a referendum. - Every single member state of the EU has to support us rejoining.
Both of these conditions would be politically impossible for a very, very long time once we've left, particularly in the context of our original application being vetoed by De Gaulle.
I suspect that referenda will become less popular amongst politicians since the Scottish Independence and now this one have been so close. I suspect that the major parties will put the policies in their manifestos and not need referenda. They may have got Wilson and Cameron (twice) off a hook but they are now looking too dangerous.
People are hurling abuse at the Remain street stall on a high street close to where I live.
The state of UK politics after the referendum is going to be very interesting.
I don't know how the country comes back together after this? That's why there has to be a "lancing" of the boil, around which we can all unite? Perhaps Cameron and Osborne being removed from Downing St. will be the thing that brings us all back together?
The Final Wembley debate will not be as easy a win for leave as their ITV one was - Boris, Gisela Stuart and Andrea Leadsom are up against a more formidable line up of Sadiq Khan, Francis O'Grady and Ruth Davidson. It will be very interesting but I think Sadiq Khan will get much the better of Boris. However, as with everything in this campaign only a few more days to 'put up' with it
I would have thought that Remain would try to get someone in who might plausibly be thought to speak for middle England.
The vote will be won by labour voting remain, together with big votes in favour in London and Scotland so in my opinion the panel is perfectly targeted at the audience remain need to win over
6m voters London and Scotland 24m voters the rest
Isn't it 6m London, 6m Scotland, so 12m (one third of the total) between them?
The population and the voting electorate are different.
At the last election roughly 6m Scots and Londoners combined voted.
Roughly four times that number voted in the remainder of England and Wales.
London and Scotland generate an enormous amount of conversation for a relatively small proportion of the population.
Yes but London and Scotland will almost certainly win the referendum for Remain if Remain do win by less than a landslide, the North, the South and the Midlands and Wales back Leave in almost every poll it is only the comfortable Remain lead in London and the huge Remain lead in Scotland which gives Remain a narrow lead across the UK as a whole
What is your central projection and MOE?
52% Remain 48% Leave, MOE 2% either way
So within MOE it could be 50/50?
Indeed
So then we're down to points of a percentage... Something like REMAIN 50.4% and LEAVE 50.6% not out of the question... So LEAVE could just pip it?
I think in that case, there probably would be eyebrows raised at the counting...
Unless you're saying that while Leave is forever, if we do vote Remain, we might get another chance relatively soon?
Leave is indeed forever, and in a FPTP election you don't even need 50% of the electorate to elect a government with a thumping majority on a manifesto commitment to leave the EU, so at worst we get the chance to express a new opinion every 5 years.
Anyone who isn't sure should vote Remain.
Where's the evidence for your suggestion that Leave is forever? Much as I'd like it to be true, I don't see it being any more set in stone than Remaining.
For Leave to be reversed, two conditions need to be met:
- A majority UK government and most likely a majority of the British people need to support rejoining in a referendum. - Every single member state of the EU has to support us rejoining.
Both of these conditions would be politically impossible for a very, very long time once we've left, particularly in the context of our original application being vetoed by De Gaulle.
I suspect that referenda will become less popular amongst politicians since the Scottish Independence and now this one have been so close. I suspect that the major parties will put the policies in their manifestos and not need referenda. They may have got Wilson and Cameron (twice) off a hook but they are now looking too dangerous.
I think that referendums are too established now. We had one in 1974 but quite a few since the nineties. They are here to stay, even if they do not fit very well into our democratic tradition.
Perhaps what needs to be considered longer term is a mechanism to allow countries to impose restrictions, similar to those we didn't use after the A10 accession, in limited circumstances such as:
- GDP per capita of the source country below a certain percentage of the EU average - Net migration to the target country above a certain percentage of the population
It would probably never happen, but ought to be enough to kill the idea that EU membership = controllable mass immigration.
The Final Wembley debate will not be as easy a win for leave as their ITV one was - Boris, Gisela Stuart and Andrea Leadsom are up against a more formidable line up of Sadiq Khan, Francis O'Grady and Ruth Davidson. It will be very interesting but I think Sadiq Khan will get much the better of Boris. However, as with everything in this campaign only a few more days to 'put up' with it
I would have thought that Remain would try to get someone in who might plausibly be thought to speak for middle England.
The vote will be won by labour voting remain, together with big votes in favour in London and Scotland so in my opinion the panel is perfectly targeted at the audience remain need to win over
6m voters London and Scotland 24m voters the rest
Isn't it 6m London, 6m Scotland, so 12m (one third of the total) between them?
The population and the voting electorate are different.
At the last election roughly 6m Scots and Londoners combined voted.
Roughly four times that number voted in the remainder of England and Wales.
London and Scotland generate an enormous amount of conversation for a relatively small proportion of the population.
Yes but London and Scotland will almost certainly win the referendum for Remain if Remain do win by less than a landslide, the North, the South and the Midlands and Wales back Leave in almost every poll it is only the comfortable Remain lead in London and the huge Remain lead in Scotland which gives Remain a narrow lead across the UK as a whole
What is your central projection and MOE?
52% Remain 48% Leave, MOE 2% either way
So within MOE it could be 50/50?
Indeed
So then we're down to points of a percentage... Something like REMAIN 50.4% and LEAVE 50.6% not out of the question... So LEAVE could just pip it?
I think in that case, there probably would be eyebrows raised at the counting...
Well presumably the whole country could go to a recount or two? We might still be counting at Christmas!
Sociological alert: Contributors to a conservative pro-LEAVE internet comment section tend to know people who are also pro-LEAVE. This could be good for LEAVE.
The Final Wembley debate will not be as easy a win for leave as their ITV one was - Boris, Gisela Stuart and Andrea Leadsom are up against a more formidable line up of Sadiq Khan, Francis O'Grady and Ruth Davidson. It will be very interesting but I think Sadiq Khan will get much the better of Boris. However, as with everything in this campaign only a few more days to 'put up' with it
I would have thought that Remain would try to get someone in who might plausibly be thought to speak for middle England.
The vote will be won by labour voting remain, together with big votes in favour in London and Scotland so in my opinion the panel is perfectly targeted at the audience remain need to win over
6m voters London and Scotland 24m voters the rest
Isn't it 6m London, 6m Scotland, so 12m (one third of the total) between them?
The population and the voting electorate are different.
At the last election roughly 6m Scots and Londoners combined voted.
Roughly four times that number voted in the remainder of England and Wales.
London and Scotland generate an enormous amount of conversation for a relatively small proportion of the population.
Yes but London and Scotland will almost certainly win the referendum for Remain if Remain do win by less than a landslide, the North, the South and the Midlands and Wales back Leave in almost every poll it is only the comfortable Remain lead in London and the huge Remain lead in Scotland which gives Remain a narrow lead across the UK as a whole
What is your central projection and MOE?
52% Remain 48% Leave, MOE 2% either way
So within MOE it could be 50/50?
Indeed
So then we're down to points of a percentage... Something like REMAIN 50.4% and LEAVE 50.6% not out of the question... So LEAVE could just pip it?
I think in that case, there probably would be eyebrows raised at the counting...
Well presumably the whole country could go to a recount or two? We might still be counting at Christmas!
The Final Wembley debate will not be as easy a win for leave as their ITV one was - Boris, Gisela Stuart and Andrea Leadsom are up against a more formidable line up of Sadiq Khan, Francis O'Grady and Ruth Davidson. It will be very interesting but I think Sadiq Khan will get much the better of Boris. However, as with everything in this campaign only a few more days to 'put up' with it
I would have thought that Remain would try to get someone in who might plausibly be thought to speak for middle England.
The vote will be won by labour voting remain, together with big votes in favour in London and Scotland so in my opinion the panel is perfectly targeted at the audience remain need to win over
6m voters London and Scotland 24m voters the rest
Isn't it 6m London, 6m Scotland, so 12m (one third of the total) between them?
The population and the voting electorate are different.
At the last election roughly 6m Scots and Londoners combined voted.
Roughly four times that number voted in the remainder of England and Wales.
London and Scotland generate an enormous amount of conversation for a relatively small proportion of the population.
Yes but London and Scotland will almost certainly win the referendum for Remain if Remain do win by less than a landslide, the North, the South and the Midlands and Wales back Leave in almost every poll it is only the comfortable Remain lead in London and the huge Remain lead in Scotland which gives Remain a narrow lead across the UK as a whole
What is your central projection and MOE?
52% Remain 48% Leave, MOE 2% either way
So within MOE it could be 50/50?
Indeed
So then we're down to points of a percentage... Something like REMAIN 50.4% and LEAVE 50.6% not out of the question... So LEAVE could just pip it?
I think in that case, there probably would be eyebrows raised at the counting...
Well presumably the whole country could go to a recount or two? We might still be counting at Christmas!
It could all hinge on the overseas postal votes from Chad.
The Final Wembley debate will not be as easy a win for leave as their ITV one was - Boris, Gisela Stuart and Andrea Leadsom are up against a more formidable line up of Sadiq Khan, Francis O'Grady and Ruth Davidson. It will be very interesting but I think Sadiq Khan will get much the better of Boris. However, as with everything in this campaign only a few more days to 'put up' with it
I would have thought that Remain would try to get someone in who might plausibly be thought to speak for middle England.
The vote will be won by labour voting remain, together with big votes in favour in London and Scotland so in my opinion the panel is perfectly targeted at the audience remain need to win over
6m voters London and Scotland 24m voters the rest
Isn't it 6m London, 6m Scotland, so 12m (one third of the total) between them?
The population and the voting electorate are different.
At the last election roughly 6m Scots and Londoners combined voted.
Roughly four times that number voted in the remainder of England and Wales.
London and Scotland generate an enormous amount of conversation for a relatively small proportion of the population.
Yes but London and Scotland will almost certainly win the referendum for Remain if Remain do win by less than a landslide, the North, the South and the Midlands and Wales back Leave in almost every poll it is only the comfortable Remain lead in London and the huge Remain lead in Scotland which gives Remain a narrow lead across the UK as a whole
What is your central projection and MOE?
52% Remain 48% Leave, MOE 2% either way
So within MOE it could be 50/50?
Indeed
So then we're down to points of a percentage... Something like REMAIN 50.4% and LEAVE 50.6% not out of the question... So LEAVE could just pip it?
I don't know how the country comes back together after this? That's why there has to be a "lancing" of the boil, around which we can all unite?
Which boil?
If we lance the "immigration boil" by closing our borders, economically we are fucked.
If we don't close our borders, how else might that frustration be vented?
The "boil" that's been unleashed by this nasty, awful, negative referednum campaign.
Both sides have been dismal and plumbed the depths quite frankly (today for example they both seem to be trying to use the murder of a young mum for their own advantage)
The way the campaign has been fought has divided us like never before... At the finish, there has to be an event around which everyone can unite behind...
Cameron and Osborne losing their jobs and being turfed out of Downing St in disgrace would bring a smile to just about everybody's faces...
I am quite surprised Cameron has said that. As a former PR man he really should know better. You have to wonder why Cameron has tried to link Cox's murder with the EU referendum.
The Final Wembley debate will not be as easy a win for leave as their ITV one was - Boris, Gisela Stuart and Andrea Leadsom are up against a more formidable line up of Sadiq Khan, Francis O'Grady and Ruth Davidson. It will be very interesting but I think Sadiq Khan will get much the better of Boris. However, as with everything in this campaign only a few more days to 'put up' with it
I would have thought that Remain would try to get someone in who might plausibly be thought to speak for middle England.
The vote will be won by labour voting remain, together with big votes in favour in London and Scotland so in my opinion the panel is perfectly targeted at the audience remain need to win over
6m voters London and Scotland 24m voters the rest
Isn't it 6m London, 6m Scotland, so 12m (one third of the total) between them?
The population and the voting electorate are different.
At the last election roughly 6m Scots and Londoners combined voted.
Roughly four times that number voted in the remainder of England and Wales.
London and Scotland generate an enormous amount of conversation for a relatively small proportion of the population.
Yes but London and Scotland will almost certainly win the referendum for Remain if Remain do win by less than a landslide, the North, the South and the Midlands and Wales back Leave in almost every poll it is only the comfortable Remain lead in London and the huge Remain lead in Scotland which gives Remain a narrow lead across the UK as a whole
What is your central projection and MOE?
52% Remain 48% Leave, MOE 2% either way
So within MOE it could be 50/50?
Indeed
So then we're down to points of a percentage... Something like REMAIN 50.4% and LEAVE 50.6% not out of the question... So LEAVE could just pip it?
I think in that case, there probably would be eyebrows raised at the counting...
Well presumably the whole country could go to a recount or two? We might still be counting at Christmas!
What's been the closest ref results?
Yes won by just 7000 votes in the 1997 Welsh Assembly referendum
On Sunday Politics Wales they visited Spain to talk to ex-pats One guy said he was voting Remain for pure selfish reasons like his pension, health care and free movement BUT if he was back home hed vote Leave so that the UK got its sovereignty back
On Sunday Politics Wales they visited Spain to talk to ex-pats One guy said he was voting Remain for pure selfish reasons like his pension, health care and free movement BUT if he was back home hed vote Leave so that the UK got its sovereignty back
Yes, that's an opinion I hear from expats Spain a lot.
People are hurling abuse at the Remain street stall on a high street close to where I live.
The state of UK politics after the referendum is going to be very interesting.
I don't know how the country comes back together after this? That's why there has to be a "lancing" of the boil, around which we can all unite? Perhaps Cameron and Osborne being removed from Downing St. will be the thing that brings us all back together?
It won't come back together. For a start I would expect a continuation of the drop in turnout at General Elections as more and more people wonder why bother voting for MPs when so much is now decided and controlled from the EU. Disillusionment with the main parties and a lack of any viable alternative will also play a big part. I see the whole political climate becoming more fractured and more extreme if Remain win.
On Sunday Politics Wales they visited Spain to talk to ex-pats One guy said he was voting Remain for pure selfish reasons like his pension, health care and free movement BUT if he was back home hed vote Leave so that the UK got its sovereignty back
Conformation (not that it is needed) that "sovereignty" does not provide financial security.
It is undeniable that we are culturally closer to the US if only by dint of the fact we speak the same language. Our modern culture is inextricably linked with the US as far as music, TV and film are concerned whilst at the same time we share cultural references with the rest of the Anglophone world which simply don't exist with the rest of Europe.
Such as? Shows such as Mr Bean are known extensively outside of the Anglophone world. Music? Music that isn't modern is still listened to a lot: Mozart, Beethoven, Strauss, Wagner, Tchaikovsky. Are you saying this is part of "our culture" but not "our modern culture"? If so, something's going on with how you use "modern" Film and TV: yes, and let's do something about it. There are also Catholicism and Protestantism: cultural outlooks that are are not at all US-focused. And few people in Britain or anywhere else in Europe believe there should be a generalised "right to bear arms".
This is in no way to play down the wonder of European culture but for better or worse we have a far greater cultural affinity with the US today than we do with Europe.
And that is before we even get onto legal systems or world view/philosophical outlook which is very much driven by language affinity.
The analytical-versus-continental thing has no mileage, and in any case says little about most British people's "world view". The dominance of US culture has used the English language as a medium. Better to be partners with our near neighbours than a vassal state of the US.
We are not and never have been a vassal state of the US. That is just a fallacy put around by those who are uncomfortable with the fact that we do share such a close connection with the Anglophone world.
People are hurling abuse at the Remain street stall on a high street close to where I live.
The state of UK politics after the referendum is going to be very interesting.
I don't know how the country comes back together after this? That's why there has to be a "lancing" of the boil, around which we can all unite? Perhaps Cameron and Osborne being removed from Downing St. will be the thing that brings us all back together?
It won't come back together. For a start I would expect a continuation of the drop in turnout at General Elections as more and more people wonder why bother voting for MPs when so much is now decided and controlled from the EU. Disillusionment with the main parties and a lack of any viable alternative will also play a big part. I see the whole political climate becoming more fractured and more extreme if Remain win.
People are hurling abuse at the Remain street stall on a high street close to where I live.
The state of UK politics after the referendum is going to be very interesting.
I don't know how the country comes back together after this? That's why there has to be a "lancing" of the boil, around which we can all unite? Perhaps Cameron and Osborne being removed from Downing St. will be the thing that brings us all back together?
It won't come back together. For a start I would expect a continuation of the drop in turnout at General Elections as more and more people wonder why bother voting for MPs when so much is now decided and controlled from the EU. Disillusionment with the main parties and a lack of any viable alternative will also play a big part. I see the whole political climate becoming more fractured and more extreme if Remain win.
Turnouts have increased in every one of the last three general elections (though from a low base).
I think we just have fundamentally different world views.
I see Britain as an indivisible part of Europe. This is not to say that Europe is a homogenised mass, or that we do not represent a distinct strand of its civilisation but we are very much part of it and have played a crucial role over many centuries in making Europe as a whole what it is today. This is a completely different historical experience from the US.
Both language and utterly different views on the role of the state and law will always set us apart from the rest of Europe. I have spent much of my life living and working outside of the UK and find the attitude of much of Europe to the role of the state in people's eyes to be utterly alien.
Do UK attitudes to the NHS give you any reason to doubt your conclusions?
No and why should they. The NHS is unique (and the worse for it). Most European countries and most first world countries around the world have health schemes which, whilst free at the point of delivery are very different in their organisation and funding compared to the NHS.
People are hurling abuse at the Remain street stall on a high street close to where I live.
The state of UK politics after the referendum is going to be very interesting.
I don't know how the country comes back together after this? That's why there has to be a "lancing" of the boil, around which we can all unite? Perhaps Cameron and Osborne being removed from Downing St. will be the thing that brings us all back together?
It won't come back together. For a start I would expect a continuation of the drop in turnout at General Elections as more and more people wonder why bother voting for MPs when so much is now decided and controlled from the EU. Disillusionment with the main parties and a lack of any viable alternative will also play a big part. I see the whole political climate becoming more fractured and more extreme if Remain win.
I myself have wondered if I will bother to turnout at elections if Remain win this.
@RobDotHutton: UKIP's only MP casts doubt on whether UKIP leader was standing in front of a UKIP poster at event UKIP organised... https://t.co/Puy3g0NeJC
People are hurling abuse at the Remain street stall on a high street close to where I live.
The state of UK politics after the referendum is going to be very interesting.
I don't know how the country comes back together after this? That's why there has to be a "lancing" of the boil, around which we can all unite? Perhaps Cameron and Osborne being removed from Downing St. will be the thing that brings us all back together?
It won't come back together. For a start I would expect a continuation of the drop in turnout at General Elections as more and more people wonder why bother voting for MPs when so much is now decided and controlled from the EU. Disillusionment with the main parties and a lack of any viable alternative will also play a big part. I see the whole political climate becoming more fractured and more extreme if Remain win.
Yep,some posters on here think a remain win is a kicking to parties like Ukip but a leave win will finish Ukip and bring our communities together with the subject of immigration falling down the charts of peoples concerns.
I'd like LEAVE to win for only one thing; to give TSE a kick in the ball's that would shut his crowing about his marvelous PM and Chancellor, and perhaps make him shut up for a while.
People are hurling abuse at the Remain street stall on a high street close to where I live.
The state of UK politics after the referendum is going to be very interesting.
I don't know how the country comes back together after this? That's why there has to be a "lancing" of the boil, around which we can all unite? Perhaps Cameron and Osborne being removed from Downing St. will be the thing that brings us all back together?
It won't come back together. For a start I would expect a continuation of the drop in turnout at General Elections as more and more people wonder why bother voting for MPs when so much is now decided and controlled from the EU. Disillusionment with the main parties and a lack of any viable alternative will also play a big part. I see the whole political climate becoming more fractured and more extreme if Remain win.
I myself have wondered if I will bother to turnout at elections if Remain win this.
I have spent my whole life advocating people vote. I use social media to urge this before every election of any type and always use the same formula - I don't care who you vote for just go out and vote.
If Remain win on Thursday then I am very doubtful if I will bother voting in any future general elections and would actively campaign to persuade people not to. It will simply perpetuate the myth that we have any significant control over our legislature.
The Final Wembley debate will not be as easy a win for leave as their ITV one was - Boris, Gisela Stuart and Andrea Leadsom are up against a more formidable line up of Sadiq Khan, Francis O'Grady and Ruth Davidson. It will be very interesting but I think Sadiq Khan will get much the better of Boris. However, as with everything in this campaign only a few more days to 'put up' with it
I would have thought that Remain would try to get someone in who might plausibly be thought to speak for middle England.
The vote will be won by labour voting remain, together with big votes in favour in London and Scotland so in my opinion the panel is perfectly targeted at the audience remain need to win over
6m voters London and Scotland 24m voters the rest
Isn't it 6m London, 6m Scotland, so 12m (one third of the total) between them?
The population and the voting electorate are different.
At the last election roughly 6m Scots and Londoners combined voted.
Roughly four times that number voted in the remainder of England and Wales.
London and Scotland generate an enormous amount of conversation for a relatively small proportion of the population.
Yes but London and Scotland will almost certainly win the referendum for Remain if Remain do win by less than a landslide, the North, the South and the Midlands and Wales back Leave in almost every poll it is only the comfortable Remain lead in London and the huge Remain lead in Scotland which gives Remain a narrow lead across the UK as a whole
What is your central projection and MOE?
52% Remain 48% Leave, MOE 2% either way
So within MOE it could be 50/50?
Indeed
So then we're down to points of a percentage... Something like REMAIN 50.4% and LEAVE 50.6% not out of the question... So LEAVE could just pip it?
I think in that case, there probably would be eyebrows raised at the counting...
Well presumably the whole country could go to a recount or two? We might still be counting at Christmas!
Free Movement = Unlimited (Immigration + Emigration)
As you say. The issue (and I'm only picking on Poles because the numbers are easier to dig up) is that there ~6,000 Brits in Poland, and around 800k Poles in Britain.
What's depressed me most about the campaign is that Remain doesn't want to talk about immigration and Leave won't talk about the nuances of immigration. It's just Racist! vs Be Afraid!
There's nothing wrong with immigration. We've been welcoming people here for centuries, beginning with the Hugenots in the 18th century.
( There was a lovely radio 4 program a couple of years ago about the long tradition of Liverpool girls marrying Chinese mariners (they were seen as more reliable and faithful than the local men).
Our problem is the pace of change and the rate of increase. There is no reason to believe Cameron's measures will be effective.
That means we will have around 4 million extra people (plus the natural growth in the population) by 2030. Remain just won't engage with that. It will require welfare reform, planning reform, health reform. None of that is on the agenda.
I'd like LEAVE to win for only one thing; to give TSE a kick in the ball's that would shut his crowing about his marvelous PM and Chancellor, and perhaps make him shut up for a while.
I tell you what was a kick in the balls for me. UKIP winning 102 MPs at the last general election.
That stopped me crowing about the awesomeness of Dave and George.
A Leave win means immigration is the ONLY thing that will matter at the next GE
The return of the supremacy of parliament will mean everything will matter, as opposed to who can kiss the best babies and make the most noise about how great britain is and get the best huskie photo opportunity.
As opposed to Spain or Ireland, where there's no government because it doesn;t matter more. Elect all you like. Nothing will change.
Free Movement = Unlimited (Immigration + Emigration)
As you say. The issue (and I'm only picking on Poles because the numbers are easier to dig up) is that there ~6,000 Brits in Poland, and around 800k Poles in Britain.
What's depressed me most about the campaign is that Remain doesn't want to talk about immigration and Leave won't talk about the nuances of immigration. It's just Racist! vs Be Afraid!
There's nothing wrong with immigration. We've been welcoming people here for centuries, beginning with the Hugenots in the 18th century.
( There was a lovely radio 4 program a couple of years ago about the long tradition of Liverpool girls marrying Chinese mariners (they were seen as more reliable and faithful than the local men).
Our problem is the pace of change and the rate of increase. There is no reason to believe Cameron's measures will be effective.
That means we will have around 4 million extra people (plus the natural growth in the population) by 2030. Remain just won't engage with that. It will require welfare reform, planning reform, health reform. None of that is on the agenda.
Hence...depression.
And about 750,000 UK migrants in Spain.
Oh, my bad - we call them expats, don't we?
You're tilting at the wrong windmill, Don Quixote. I imagine the Spanish might have something to say if those 'ex-pats' arrived within the space of 30 months, instead of the last fifty years.
People are hurling abuse at the Remain street stall on a high street close to where I live.
The state of UK politics after the referendum is going to be very interesting.
I don't know how the country comes back together after this? That's why there has to be a "lancing" of the boil, around which we can all unite? Perhaps Cameron and Osborne being removed from Downing St. will be the thing that brings us all back together?
It won't come back together. For a start I would expect a continuation of the drop in turnout at General Elections as more and more people wonder why bother voting for MPs when so much is now decided and controlled from the EU. Disillusionment with the main parties and a lack of any viable alternative will also play a big part. I see the whole political climate becoming more fractured and more extreme if Remain win.
I myself have wondered if I will bother to turnout at elections if Remain win this.
I have spent my whole life advocating people vote. I use social media to urge this before every election of any type and always use the same formula - I don't care who you vote for just go out and vote.
If Remain win on Thursday then I am very doubtful if I will bother voting in any future general elections and would actively campaign to persuade people not to. It will simply perpetuate the myth that we have any significant control over our legislature.
Indeed and I am one of the few young people who bothers to turnout, including pestering my friends to go and vote. My attitude if Remain win is simply to hell with the lot.
Unless you're saying that while Leave is forever, if we do vote Remain, we might get another chance relatively soon?
Leave is indeed forever, and in a FPTP election you don't even need 50% of the electorate to elect a government with a thumping majority on a manifesto commitment to leave the EU, so at worst we get the chance to express a new opinion every 5 years.
Anyone who isn't sure should vote Remain.
Where's the evidence for your suggestion that Leave is forever? Much as I'd like it to be true, I don't see it being any more set in stone than Remaining.
For Leave to be reversed, two conditions need to be met:
- A majority UK government and most likely a majority of the British people need to support rejoining in a referendum. - Every single member state of the EU has to support us rejoining.
Both of these conditions would be politically impossible for a very, very long time once we've left, particularly in the context of our original application being vetoed by De Gaulle.
I suspect that referenda will become less popular amongst politicians since the Scottish Independence and now this one have been so close. I suspect that the major parties will put the policies in their manifestos and not need referenda. They may have got Wilson and Cameron (twice) off a hook but they are now looking too dangerous.
I think that referendums are too established now. We had one in 1974 but quite a few since the nineties. They are here to stay, even if they do not fit very well into our democratic tradition.
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- A majority UK government and most likely a majority of the British people need to support rejoining in a referendum.
- Every single member state of the EU has to support us rejoining.
Both of these conditions would be politically impossible for a very, very long time once we've left, particularly in the context of our original application being vetoed by De Gaulle.
This strikes me as bizarre, as well as deeply wrong-headed. How can these politicians, who have famously come through the most quintessentially British educational institutions and established channels of national life, possibly be so ignorant (and unappreciative) of the instincts and character of their electorate?
...In a peculiar way, the Remain leadership seems to have the same flawed – almost childlike – illusion. They appear to think that we will simply believe whatever they tell us however much it conflicts with our own lived experience. They may be in for a surprise.'
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/18/how-did-the-remain-campaign-get-the-british-character-so-wrong/
However, what I can see potentially is a Vote Leave on Thursday, followed by political and economic chaos, followed rapidly by mass buyers remorse, and a process whereby we don't actually end up leaving. I don't put a very high probability on this, but there is a possibility I think.
I can't believe I am saying this, but Corbyn was right. Pressure on the NHS is not the fault of immigrants.
In the absence of decent liquidity @ >100/1 on the GOP market, I've taken what I can get @ 999/1 on the main POTUS market.
This isn't a tip btw, just a fun (and IMO, value) lottery bet on convention chaos.
By which I mean there is no explicit ability within the treaty to undo it. But almost certainly if it was needed there would be a workaround to allow it to happen.
The likes of Schaeuble would push for the referendum result to be respected come what may.
https://next.ft.com/content/83c86642-33ae-11e6-ad39-3fee5ffe5b5b
"While diplomats understand any need for a change of government or prime minister may cause some delays, Germany and France are in agreement that formal detailed talks with a Brexit government should begin as soon as possible, and only under the umbrella of Article 50.
“What would be refused is a political decision to leave without formal notification,” said one senior aide to the leader of a big eurozone state. “It would create huge uncertainty. It is tactics and it would not be accepted. We would say we will not start any negotiation of any kind without a notification.” "
Others can confirm, but I think this week the FT has no paywall on referendum articles.
"Goldman Sachs internal analysis predicts Leave victory and suggests European HQ would move to Warsaw, I'm told."
First part interesting, second part highly questionable.
I see the BBC cut away from Boris Johnson at their rally this morning. I find myself gripping the armchair when I see him, you can never be sure he is going to hold it together and not go off-piste (which he did). He was excellent on the ITV debate but he needs to find that extra discipline, which he often lacks. I see Ruth Davidson is on the BBC Debate on Tuesday and I gather is not a Boris fan!
'Everyone there will have moved here'
You might be correct that the far right would move on to "time to throw them out". That's an extremist position, and it wouldn't appeal at all in my view.
Around 40% of Labour voters will support LEAVE. A position shared by just 4% of party MPs #Brexit
Honest, and toxic for Remain.
Then Corbyn lets them into the UK, no questions asked.
I'm happy for that to dominate the last few days of campaigning. Good luck on getting the Labour vote to support Remain on that basis....
The state of UK politics after the referendum is going to be very interesting.
'The solution to the "problem" of immigration is reasoned and sensible debate.'
That's what we've been having for 15 years and the result is diddly- squat
Music? Music that isn't modern is still listened to a lot: Mozart, Beethoven, Strauss, Wagner, Tchaikovsky. Are you saying this is part of "our culture" but not "our modern culture"? If so, something's going on with how you use "modern"
Film and TV: yes, and let's do something about it.
There are also Catholicism and Protestantism: cultural outlooks that are are not at all US-focused.
And few people in Britain or anywhere else in Europe believe there should be a generalised "right to bear arms". The analytical-versus-continental thing has no mileage, and in any case says little about most British people's "world view".
The dominance of US culture has used the English language as a medium.
Better to be partners with our near neighbours than a vassal state of the US.
- GDP per capita of the source country below a certain percentage of the EU average
- Net migration to the target country above a certain percentage of the population
It would probably never happen, but ought to be enough to kill the idea that EU membership = controllable mass immigration.
If we lance the "immigration boil" by closing our borders, economically we are fucked.
If we don't close our borders, how else might that frustration be vented?
Both sides have been dismal and plumbed the depths quite frankly (today for example they both seem to be trying to use the murder of a young mum for their own advantage)
The way the campaign has been fought has divided us like never before... At the finish, there has to be an event around which everyone can unite behind...
Cameron and Osborne losing their jobs and being turfed out of Downing St in disgrace would bring a smile to just about everybody's faces...
Jo Cox's strong voice in the campaign to remain in the EU will be badly missed. Her final article, published today: https://www.facebook.com/StrongerInCampaign/posts/1196877127019276
This makes me feel a bit uncomfortable.
Let them eat sovereignty
Maybe not, but remain guarantees penury, as the EU takes more and more of our money to prop up its desperately failing enterprise.
Go for it
If Remain win on Thursday then I am very doubtful if I will bother voting in any future general elections and would actively campaign to persuade people not to. It will simply perpetuate the myth that we have any significant control over our legislature.
Oh, my bad - we call them expats, don't we?
That stopped me crowing about the awesomeness of Dave and George.
The return of the supremacy of parliament will mean everything will matter, as opposed to who can kiss the best babies and make the most noise about how great britain is and get the best huskie photo opportunity.
As opposed to Spain or Ireland, where there's no government because it doesn;t matter more. Elect all you like. Nothing will change.