@PolhomeEditor: Nigel Farage's latest poster defence: "Had [Jo Cox's death] not happened, I don't think we'd have had this kind of row." Wow. Just wow.
Farage is doing everything he can to sabotage LEAVE as we all knew he would....
I see Trump is morphing "Make America Great Again" into "Make America SAFE Again."
Good pivot...
Why doesn't he say he'll bring in gun control laws? He might have as much chance of doing that as banning Muslims from entering the USA, but what's he got to lose?
In the same way the Scottish referendum was "once in a generation".
*slightly innocent face*
Um, what? If the SindyRef had been for separation, it wouldn't really have been reversed, would it (and I do note that the economic warnings ("Project Fear") seem to have been, if anything, understated - given what's happened with oil prices since.
Unless you're saying that while Leave is forever, if we do vote Remain, we might get another chance relatively soon?
I suppose his comment will work both ways. It will harden both Remainers and Leavers.
In the same way the Scottish referendum was "once in a generation".
*slightly innocent face*
Um, what? If the SindyRef had been for separation, it wouldn't really have been reversed, would it (and I do note that the economic warnings ("Project Fear") seem to have been, if anything, understated - given what's happened with oil prices since.
Unless you're saying that while Leave is forever, if we do vote Remain, we might get another chance relatively soon?
It will harden both Remainers and Leavers.
A little too visceral an image for a Sunday afternoon, thank you!
Not only are Westminster's democratic credentials weak, it has a consistent track record of producing poor government.
But at least we can do something about reforming Westminster. A House of Lords elected by PR rather than patronage might be a start. Our ability to reform the EU by contrast is minimal.
I'm not. She knows far more than any of us what it is like to live in an multinational superstate where the leaders are unelected and care not a whit about your countries culture and aspirations.
The Commission are elected by the European Parliament and the prime ministers.
Your point being? The Governor of the Bank of England is appointed by our Government - it doesn't mean the Bank is democratic. Ditto, many other public positions.
The Commission are appointed - that makes them an undemocratic form of government. They are the only body that can propose new laws or propose repealing existing laws. They cannot be turfed out by voters and are not continually thinking about the next election.
HM Government is also appointed, by a monarch I might add. The main difference is that the Commission is elected for a fixed term not dependent on the confidence of the legislature, much like the US presidency, but hardly unelected or undemocratic.
The difference is that members of HM Government are mostly elected (excluding a few Lords appointments).
@PolhomeEditor: Nigel Farage's latest poster defence: "Had [Jo Cox's death] not happened, I don't think we'd have had this kind of row." Wow. Just wow.
There are many people I respect and admire voting leave – there are people in my family voting leave. I understand their reasons. But they must stomach the reality that a vote for leave will be taken by Farage and countless others as a vote for him, a vote for his posters, a vote for his ideas, a vote for his quiet malice, a vote for his smallness in the face of vast horrors. Is it worth it?
In the same way the Scottish referendum was "once in a generation".
*slightly innocent face*
Um, what? If the SindyRef had been for separation, it wouldn't really have been reversed, would it (and I do note that the economic warnings ("Project Fear") seem to have been, if anything, understated - given what's happened with oil prices since.
Unless you're saying that while Leave is forever, if we do vote Remain, we might get another chance relatively soon?
I suppose his comment will work both ways. It will harden both Remainers and Leavers.
But it is the undecided who are key and whether it cuts through with them (or not)
The Final Wembley debate will not be as easy a win for leave as their ITV one was - Boris, Gisela Stuart and Andrea Leadsom are up against a more formidable line up of Sadiq Khan, Francis O'Grady and Ruth Davidson. It will be very interesting but I think Sadiq Khan will get much the better of Boris. However, as with everything in this campaign only a few more days to 'put up' with it
I would have thought that Remain would try to get someone in who might plausibly be thought to speak for middle England.
The vote will be won by labour voting remain, together with big votes in favour in London and Scotland so in my opinion the panel is perfectly targeted at the audience remain need to win over
6m voters London and Scotland 24m voters the rest
Isn't it 6m London, 6m Scotland, so 12m (one third of the total) between them?
Labour got a 50-60 odd seat majority with slightly worse (I think) figures in 2005.
2005 was shit, but 2015 is in a different league. Westminster is broken and not ready for more power as is.
No; 2015 was far less unrepresentative than 2005 or 2001. 36%:33% gives a majority of 66. 38%:31% gives a majority of 10. Which is less representative?
@PolhomeEditor: Nigel Farage's latest poster defence: "Had [Jo Cox's death] not happened, I don't think we'd have had this kind of row." Wow. Just wow.
Farage is doing everything he can to sabotage LEAVE as we all knew he would....
Although, it's worth noting that - to the public - Farage isn't the public face of the Leave campaign: Boris is. That's why Rudd went heavy and personal on Boris in the ITV debate.
So we can conclude the personal attacks on Boris failed, and, following the poster last Thursday, they now sense some mileage in going back to Farage.
I think it has only limited value to swing voters in England. It's really targeted at driving up Remain turnout in metro cities, London and Scotland.
@PolhomeEditor: Nigel Farage's latest poster defence: "Had [Jo Cox's death] not happened, I don't think we'd have had this kind of row." Wow. Just wow.
There are many people I respect and admire voting leave – there are people in my family voting leave. I understand their reasons. But they must stomach the reality that a vote for leave will be taken by Farage and countless others as a vote for him, a vote for his posters, a vote for his ideas, a vote for his quiet malice, a vote for his smallness in the face of vast horrors. Is it worth it?
Farage and countless others will be shocked to learn after a Leave vote that they actually haven't won a seat for themselves anywhere. The article wants to equate a Leave vote to uninterrupted UKIP rule, which won't happen.
Not only are Westminster's democratic credentials weak, it has a consistent track record of producing poor government.
But at least we can do something about reforming Westminster. A House of Lords elected by PR rather than patronage might be a start. Our ability to reform the EU by contrast is minimal.
Not sure we can reform Westminster in practice. It's Hogwarts without the magic.
I'm not going to go back through it but you said she could justifiably be criticized for what she did in her life which referred to working for Oxfam.
I usually think that unike several of the right wing headbangers on here you are actually quite thoughtful but I have to say it ill behoves someone who went to Eton and then joined their father's banking business to criticize someone who with no advantages got to Cambridge and then went to work for Oxfam because YOU don't rate Oxfam as a charity.
I can assure you that if someone shoots you in the course of your work and anyone says 'well he was a banker' you can be certain I'll be the first to condemn them and it will be without reservation.
Not quite.
I said that Lowlander's mother's criticism was based on her previous job, not on her murder.
I also said that it is possible to criticise the class of professional politicians <-> third sector workers who shift between both groups and arguably do neither a service.
I also said that I don't know Jo Cox and so it wasn't intended to be a criticism of her. Just simply that it is *possible* to come up with legitimate criticisms of people who work for the third sector.
(I don't work for my father, as it happens, but for a US public company)
The Final Wembley debate will not be as easy a win for leave as their ITV one was - Boris, Gisela Stuart and Andrea Leadsom are up against a more formidable line up of Sadiq Khan, Francis O'Grady and Ruth Davidson. It will be very interesting but I think Sadiq Khan will get much the better of Boris. However, as with everything in this campaign only a few more days to 'put up' with it
I would have thought that Remain would try to get someone in who might plausibly be thought to speak for middle England.
The vote will be won by labour voting remain, together with big votes in favour in London and Scotland so in my opinion the panel is perfectly targeted at the audience remain need to win over
6m voters London and Scotland 24m voters the rest
Isn't it 6m London, 6m Scotland, so 12m (one third of the total) between them?
Only 4 million on the electoral roll in Scotland. Some will be EU citizens and therefore ineligible to vote this time.
The end of communism saw birth rates collapse in many countries.
Any hints as to what caused it? I guess I could look it up, but much easier to ask the doyens on here.
This is a good article that looks at the issue from the other end of the telescope - what it's like to live in a country with low fertility (Poland has one of the lowest fertility rates in the world, which is bizarre for a largely Catholic country) and high emigration. It's not pretty.
Which is my other general point about mass immigration. We benefit, so fuck the source country. We are just narcissistic, selfish c*nts.
Well, there is presumably a reason why they left Poland and it may mean that the success they achieve in the UK would not have been replicated had they stayed in Poland. It seems that young Polish women have first-world expectations about relationships and careers while faced with slow progress at home. And as long as they're in the EU, why should they not aspire to better? It seems the only way to get high birth rates in rich countries these days is to have a society with some basic respect for women, and even then it's not guaranteed. Nordics, France, UK, Ireland, USA, Canada, and everyone else looks on. If you try to maintain patriarchal or grotesquely unequal societies like Singapore, you end up with young women leaving or resiling from childrearing.
"Neutralize the right wing extremist by voting to Leave".
And he's right. The only thing that kills off Farage/UKIP, revitalises the Lib Dems as a true liberal party, and kills off immigration as a public issue (by giving them control over skills/numbers) is to Vote Leave.
Labour got a 50-60 odd seat majority with slightly worse (I think) figures in 2005.
2005 was shit, but 2015 is in a different league. Westminster is broken and not ready for more power as is.
No; 2015 was far less unrepresentative than 2005 or 2001. 36%:33% gives a majority of 66. 38%:31% gives a majority of 10. Which is less representative?
I think it may have something more to do with who won in 2001 and 2005.
Labour got a 50-60 odd seat majority with slightly worse (I think) figures in 2005.
2005 was shit, but 2015 is in a different league. Westminster is broken and not ready for more power as is.
No; 2015 was far less unrepresentative than 2005 or 2001. 36%:33% gives a majority of 66. 38%:31% gives a majority of 10. Which is less representative?
It is not just about today's government but about which voices are heard. The only opposition voice with more than 10 seats in parliament was a small regionalist party from Scotland (EDIT: lol, except Corbyn's Labour, remember them?!), whereas two national parties with distinctive voices and views, like them or not, got 20 per cent of votes and 9/650 seats.
I see Trump is morphing "Make America Great Again" into "Make America SAFE Again."
Good pivot...
Why doesn't he say he'll bring in gun control laws? He might have as much chance of doing that as banning Muslims from entering the USA, but what's he got to lose?
Did anything come of his meeting with the NRA? If he could persuade them to back reform of the gun laws it would cement his reputation as a master deal-maker who can reach the parts other politicians can't reach.
"Neutralize the right wing extremist by voting to Leave".
And he's right. The only thing that kills off Farage/UKIP, revitalises the Lib Dems as a true liberal party, and kills off immigration as a public issue (by giving them control over skills/numbers) is to Vote Leave.
So we neutralise right wing extremists by giving them what they want? Really? Is that the best Boris can do?
Tragedy is that it won't shut any of them up. The extremist will move on to fresh meat. Wonder what their next target will be.
@PolhomeEditor: Nigel Farage's latest poster defence: "Had [Jo Cox's death] not happened, I don't think we'd have had this kind of row." Wow. Just wow.
There are many people I respect and admire voting leave – there are people in my family voting leave. I understand their reasons. But they must stomach the reality that a vote for leave will be taken by Farage and countless others as a vote for him, a vote for his posters, a vote for his ideas, a vote for his quiet malice, a vote for his smallness in the face of vast horrors. Is it worth it?
I can't help what other people think. I voted Tory in 2015. A good chunk of the Twitterati think that I am (at their most polite) scum.
It's a pathetic argument worthy of an eight year old. Labour has anti-semites in their ranks. If you vote Labour (say), I wouldn't dream of accusing you of antisemitism.
The approach Hyde advocates is completely impractical. There are racists, bigots, cretins and obnoxious people in every single party or movement.
The Farage poster will appeal to a lot of people, just not the type who post on here or who provide political commentary.
Leave will lose, but not because of this poster that 99% will not have seen, especially as nobody watches politics shows on a Sunday morning.
The problem is that the 'poster' is headlining on the news channels and is the subject of widespread discussion and your hope that 99% will not see it is with respect widely overstated
Which is exactly what Farage wants. Metropolitan types bouncing up and down with outrage, banging on about immigration and pubpicising his dog whistle further and wider than any ad campaign could
That's what you hope is happening. I would be inclined to wait for some polling before drawing that conclusion. It appeals to UKIP voters who were always voting Leave anyway - what effect it has on other voters we don't know. Overplaying immigration could rebound on Leave in the same way as overplaying Project Fear could rebound on Remain.
Only the terminally stupid would believe Turkey is about to join the EU, but there is undoubtedly a terminally stupid vote out there - however there might be a price to pay for appealing to it.
The Final Wembley debate will not be as easy a win for leave as their ITV one was - Boris, Gisela Stuart and Andrea Leadsom are up against a more formidable line up of Sadiq Khan, Francis O'Grady and Ruth Davidson. It will be very interesting but I think Sadiq Khan will get much the better of Boris. However, as with everything in this campaign only a few more days to 'put up' with it
I would have thought that Remain would try to get someone in who might plausibly be thought to speak for middle England.
Indeed. All those insulted as Little Englanders. Who would you pick?
The 6 from REMAIN Over the quota = 2 Scottish females , 2 Southern women, 5 females Well below quota = 1 male On quota = 1 Northern woman, 1 gay, 1 Asian, 1 from London (on quota)
The Final Wembley debate will not be as easy a win for leave as their ITV one was - Boris, Gisela Stuart and Andrea Leadsom are up against a more formidable line up of Sadiq Khan, Francis O'Grady and Ruth Davidson. It will be very interesting but I think Sadiq Khan will get much the better of Boris. However, as with everything in this campaign only a few more days to 'put up' with it
I would have thought that Remain would try to get someone in who might plausibly be thought to speak for middle England.
The vote will be won by labour voting remain, together with big votes in favour in London and Scotland so in my opinion the panel is perfectly targeted at the audience remain need to win over
6m voters London and Scotland 24m voters the rest
Isn't it 6m London, 6m Scotland, so 12m (one third of the total) between them?
Population of Scotland is about 5.4 million. Electors are just over 4 million, but we won't even get 3.5 million voting in the EU ref.
London has the c.6 million voters but assuming only 70%-75% turnout probably only 4 million-4.5 million will vote.
So I think Scotland + London will deliver 8m votes at absolute best.
I'm not going to go back through it but you said she could justifiably be criticized for what she did in her life which referred to working for Oxfam.
I usually think that unike several of the right wing headbangers on here you are actually quite thoughtful but I have to say it ill behoves someone who went to Eton and then joined their father's banking business to criticize someone who with no advantages got to Cambridge and then went to work for Oxfam because YOU don't rate Oxfam as a charity.
I can assure you that if someone shoots you in the course of your work and anyone says 'well he was a banker' you can be certain I'll be the first to condemn them and it will be without reservation.
Excellent post
factually inaccurate, mind, but I suppose that doesn't matter in your assessment
On last comment - I don't like that Farage, but I really don't think most people will feel the same. Even some who do express disapproval I suspect will agree with its sentiment.
@PolhomeEditor: Nigel Farage's latest poster defence: "Had [Jo Cox's death] not happened, I don't think we'd have had this kind of row." Wow. Just wow.
There are many people I respect and admire voting leave – there are people in my family voting leave. I understand their reasons. But they must stomach the reality that a vote for leave will be taken by Farage and countless others as a vote for him, a vote for his posters, a vote for his ideas, a vote for his quiet malice, a vote for his smallness in the face of vast horrors. Is it worth it?
The Final Wembley debate will not be as easy a win for leave as their ITV one was - Boris, Gisela Stuart and Andrea Leadsom are up against a more formidable line up of Sadiq Khan, Francis O'Grady and Ruth Davidson. It will be very interesting but I think Sadiq Khan will get much the better of Boris. However, as with everything in this campaign only a few more days to 'put up' with it
I would have thought that Remain would try to get someone in who might plausibly be thought to speak for middle England.
Indeed. All those insulted as Little Englanders. Who would you pick?
The 6 from REMAIN Over the quota = 2 Scottish females , 2 Southern women, 5 females Well below quota = 1 male On quota = 1 Northern woman, 1 gay, 1 Asian, 1 from London (on quota)
"Neutralize the right wing extremist by voting to Leave".
And he's right. The only thing that kills off Farage/UKIP, revitalises the Lib Dems as a true liberal party, and kills off immigration as a public issue (by giving them control over skills/numbers) is to Vote Leave.
So we neutralise right wing extremists by giving them what they want? Really? Is that the best Boris can do?
Tragedy is that it won't shut any of them up. The extremist will move on to fresh meat. Wonder what their next target will be.
Somewhere between 60-70% want much greater control over immigration. Only a tiny number are right-wing extremists. To kill off the issue you have to nullify it through the democratic process. It's no different to how Thatcher killed off the NF (and immigration as an issue for 15 years) in the early 80s by bringing in new immigration laws.
Consider the opposite: we do precisely nothing but ignore it, but associate anyone who has concerns about it with those same extremists, thus accentuating polarisation and division. How do you think that will calm tensions?
I'm astonished someone with your intelligence can't see this.
The biggest reasons to vote Remain aren't complicated. Britain is culturally, historically and geographically part of Europe; and we should be friends with the countries closest to us. Britain should break the tie with the US. De Gaulle was in the right direction: it's the continent or the Atlantic alliance.
Against that, there's immigration. British people were never seriously asked whether we wanted immigration at such a high level, and this is the first serious chance to tell the elite (and its scribes, whether they write in the Times, the Guardian or somewhere else) "No we don't".
Just got a small booklet leaflet through the door from the SNP explaining why I should vote remain for a brighter future. Interesting because it is the first hand delivered leaflet from either side we have had (got a couple in the post). Just maybe the SNP are going to throw some of their weight behind Remain after all.
It may prove very useful in our household too. My wife finds herself unsure how to vote at an election for the first time in her life. She really likes Ruth and Cameron and was wavering towards remain but a picture of a smiling Nicola is worth a thousand words....
;-)
Has Gove's pledge to devolve repatriated fisheries, agriculture powers and Home Office migration quotas (for Scotland) to Holyrood in the event of Brexit cut through at all up there?
(99% sure it hasn't, which is a shame)
No. There has been no Leave campaign to talk of in Scotland at all (and not much remain one until now either).
One example, on Friday I drove to Aberdeen and back. In April/May the fields were full of large signs for the SNP, the Tories and even the odd Lib Dem. On Friday there was not a single one. Ir's like this is happening to someone else.
There have been a few Leave/Grassroots Out stalls in central Edinburgh and Remain have definitely been out in a small way with stalls round my bit of north Edinburgh. But, no posters, and very few leaflets - about 20% of what I got in the Holyrood election.
It does feel a bit like its not our fight. I expect we'll turn up on Thursday, but most of the chat amongst friends and family shows our heart isn't really in it.
The reason there are fewer posters and campaigners in Scotland than in the Holyrood elections is because opinion is so one sided, according to yougov today 63% of Scots will vote Remain and just 38% Leave. Yet Scots will turnout, Yougov also has 77% of Scots certain to vote, a figure even higher than the UK total of 73% and over 20% higher than the 55% of Scots who voted in the Scottish Parliament elections. Indeed with Yougov having it 51% Remain 49% Leave across the UK Scottish voters could be decisive for Remain! Outside London it is the only region Yougov shows with a Remain lead
Depends if people care enough about that. You certainly meet people on the street who presented with the economic argument say, 'it'll be worth it mate to get out' and 'in order to keep them out' etc etc.
The Final Wembley debate will not be as easy a win for leave as their ITV one was - Boris, Gisela Stuart and Andrea Leadsom are up against a more formidable line up of Sadiq Khan, Francis O'Grady and Ruth Davidson. It will be very interesting but I think Sadiq Khan will get much the better of Boris. However, as with everything in this campaign only a few more days to 'put up' with it
I would have thought that Remain would try to get someone in who might plausibly be thought to speak for middle England.
The vote will be won by labour voting remain, together with big votes in favour in London and Scotland so in my opinion the panel is perfectly targeted at the audience remain need to win over
6m voters London and Scotland 24m voters the rest
Isn't it 6m London, 6m Scotland, so 12m (one third of the total) between them?
The population and the voting electorate are different.
At the last election roughly 6m Scots and Londoners combined voted.
Roughly four times that number voted in the remainder of England and Wales.
London and Scotland generate an enormous amount of conversation for a relatively small proportion of the population.
It'd be interesting to see the breakdown by class and region.
I suspect it's a lot of AB professionals who thought they would do fine under Brexit suddenly thinking that taxes are going to go up. It might well reinforce the core vote rather than persuade waverers - you don't know without more data
The Final Wembley debate will not be as easy a win for leave as their ITV one was - Boris, Gisela Stuart and Andrea Leadsom are up against a more formidable line up of Sadiq Khan, Francis O'Grady and Ruth Davidson. It will be very interesting but I think Sadiq Khan will get much the better of Boris. However, as with everything in this campaign only a few more days to 'put up' with it
I would have thought that Remain would try to get someone in who might plausibly be thought to speak for middle England.
The vote will be won by labour voting remain, together with big votes in favour in London and Scotland so in my opinion the panel is perfectly targeted at the audience remain need to win over
6m voters London and Scotland 24m voters the rest
Isn't it 6m London, 6m Scotland, so 12m (one third of the total) between them?
Population of Scotland is about 5.4 million. Electors are just over 4 million, but we won't even get 3.5 million voting in the EU ref.
London has the c.6 million voters but assuming only 70%-75% turnout probably only 4 million-4.5 million will vote.
So I think Scotland + London will deliver 8m votes at absolute best.
Be lucky to get 6m, with the Scottish disinterest and all the barred voters in London.
The Final Wembley debate will not be as easy a win for leave as their ITV one was - Boris, Gisela Stuart and Andrea Leadsom are up against a more formidable line up of Sadiq Khan, Francis O'Grady and Ruth Davidson. It will be very interesting but I think Sadiq Khan will get much the better of Boris. However, as with everything in this campaign only a few more days to 'put up' with it
I would have thought that Remain would try to get someone in who might plausibly be thought to speak for middle England.
The vote will be won by labour voting remain, together with big votes in favour in London and Scotland so in my opinion the panel is perfectly targeted at the audience remain need to win over
6m voters London and Scotland 24m voters the rest
Isn't it 6m London, 6m Scotland, so 12m (one third of the total) between them?
Population of Scotland is about 5.4 million. Electors are just over 4 million, but we won't even get 3.5 million voting in the EU ref.
London has the c.6 million voters but assuming only 70%-75% turnout probably only 4 million-4.5 million will vote.
So I think Scotland + London will deliver 8m votes at absolute best.
At Holyrood 2016, the electorate was 4.1m but that includes 16 and 17yos and EU nationals. So probably 3.95m or so.
Turnout is harder to judge, clearly there has been no campaigning but to an extent Independence is on the agenda again whereas for the Holyrood election, the SNP took it off the table and appeared to suffer a big hit on differential turnout.
The biggest reasons to vote Remain aren't complicated. Britain is culturally, historically and geographically part of Europe; and we should be friends with the countries closest to us. Britain should break the tie with the US. De Gaulle was in the right direction: it's the continent or the Atlantic alliance.
Against that, there's immigration. British people were never seriously asked whether we wanted immigration at such a high level, and this is the first serious chance tell the elite and its scribes "No we don't".
Nope. Culturally, legally and historically we are far closer to the US and the rest of the Anglophone world than to Europe. That will always be the case no matter how much the Europhiles might try and claim otherwise.
Edit: Except for TSE of course who is clearly more French than British in his attitudes and behaviour.
The biggest reason to vote Remain isn't complicated. It's that Britain is culturally, historically and geographically part of Europe and we should be friends with the countries closest to us. Britain should break the tie with the US. De Gaulle was in the right direction: it's the continent or the Atlantic alliance.
Against that, there's immigration. British people were never seriously asked whether we wanted immigration at such a high level, and this is the first serious tell the elite and its scribes "No we don't".
My last post, promise! Like your post very much btw John.
I see immigration as the UK's 2nd amendment issue. The Founding Fathers of the USA could never have imagined that the 'right to keep and bear arms' (written in the time of flintlock muskets) would apply in the same way to people toting semi-automatic assault rifles and high-mag handguns (e.g. Glock 19s).
Free movement of people was fine and dandy in the EU9 days. It's not so great in EU28 with its borders aflame and destablised.
I expect both Europe and the US to continue to flail around ineffectually trying to square their respective circles. While they do so, more lives will be ruined.
The biggest reasons to vote Remain aren't complicated. Britain is culturally, historically and geographically part of Europe; and we should be friends with the countries closest to us. Britain should break the tie with the US. De Gaulle was in the right direction: it's the continent or the Atlantic alliance.
Against that, there's immigration. British people were never seriously asked whether we wanted immigration at such a high level, and this is the first serious chance tell the elite and its scribes "No we don't".
Nope. Culturally, legally and historically we are far closer to the US and the rest of the Anglophone world than to Europe. That will always be the case no matter how much the Europhiles might try and claim otherwise.
Edit: Except for TSE of course who is clearly more French than British in his attitudes and behaviour.
The geometry is not linear. The US is closer to France in some respects than to the UK, and to Germany in other respects.
Your view seems to be in the tradition of the post-Suez lurch to subservience to America that Cyclefree wrote about yesterday.
"Neutralize the right wing extremist by voting to Leave".
That's a neat pivot. And we've plenty of evidence from the EU that the tensions are leading to it.
And you're not bothered by his using the death of Jo Cox - the obvious context - in this way? Considering her own views, I think it's typically unscrupulous of Boris.
"Neutralize the right wing extremist by voting to Leave".
And he's right. The only thing that kills off Farage/UKIP, revitalises the Lib Dems as a true liberal party, and kills off immigration as a public issue (by giving them control over skills/numbers) is to Vote Leave.
So we neutralise right wing extremists by giving them what they want? Really? Is that the best Boris can do?
Tragedy is that it won't shut any of them up. The extremist will move on to fresh meat. Wonder what their next target will be.
There is a persuasive case anyway for ending the free and uncontrolled movement of labour within the EU, something that a large majority of people in the UK agree with. The fact that some extremist far right nutters agree with that shouldn't be a reason for not doing so. Johnson has now happened to come up with a further reason for ending open borders within the EU - that voting Leave to do so would deprive the far right of the fuel they need to thrive, at least in the UK, and I do not accept your premise that there is any other issue which could have the same effect on their fortunes. If the likes of Sweden and Denmark followed suit, it would have a similar effect on the thriving far right parties there, too.
The biggest reason to vote Remain isn't complicated. It's that Britain is culturally, historically and geographically part of Europe and we should be friends with the countries closest to us. Britain should break the tie with the US. De Gaulle was in the right direction: it's the continent or the Atlantic alliance.
Against that, there's immigration. British people were never seriously asked whether we wanted immigration at such a high level, and this is the first serious tell the elite and its scribes "No we don't".
My last post, promise! Like your post very much btw John.
I see immigration as the UK's 2nd amendment issue. The Founding Fathers of the USA could never have imagined that the 'right to keep and bear arms' (written in the time of flintlock muskets) would apply in the same way to people toting semi-automatic assault rifles and high-mag handguns (e.g. Glock 19s).
Free movement of people was fine and dandy in the EU9 days. It's not so great in EU28 with its borders aflame and destablised.
I expect both Europe and the US to continue to flail around ineffectually trying to square their respective circles. While they do so, more lives will be ruined.
That's quite a perceptive way of putting it.
I suspect one of the problems we'll in building a consensus to look again at this is that the EU can quite rightly point to Britain and say, "We gave you tools to reduce the impact of the A10 accession and you chose not to use them because you thought it would give you an economic advantage over your neighbours. Now you want to tear up the rules because you don't like the effects of your own stupidity."
Labour got a 50-60 odd seat majority with slightly worse (I think) figures in 2005.
2005 was shit, but 2015 is in a different league. Westminster is broken and not ready for more power as is.
No; 2015 was far less unrepresentative than 2005 or 2001. 36%:33% gives a majority of 66. 38%:31% gives a majority of 10. Which is less representative?
I think it may have something more to do with who won in 2001 and 2005.
I still find the line that went around last year about the Tories "only getting 24.6% of the electorate to vote for them but getting a majority - 50.8% of the seats" amusing in its staggering blinkeredness.
In 2005, Labour got 22.2% of the electorate to vote for them but got 54.9% of the seats. In 2001, Labour got 24.2% of the electorate (yes, less than the Tories in 2015) to vote for them, but 62.5% of the seats in a landslide majority.
Just got a small booklet leaflet through the door from the SNP explaining why I should vote remain for a brighter future. Interesting because it is the first hand delivered leaflet from either side we have had (got a couple in the post). Just maybe the SNP are going to throw some of their weight behind Remain after all.
It may prove very useful in our household too. My wife finds herself unsure how to vote at an election for the first time in her life. She really likes Ruth and Cameron and was wavering towards remain but a picture of a smiling Nicola is worth a thousand words....
;-)
Has Gove's pledge to devolve repatriated fisheries, agriculture powers and Home Office migration quotas (for Scotland) to Holyrood in the event of Brexit cut through at all up there?
(99% sure it hasn't, which is a shame)
No. There has been no Leave campaign to talk of in Scotland at all (and not much remain one until now either).
One example, on Friday I drove to Aberdeen and back. In April/May the fields were full of large signs for the SNP, the Tories and even the odd Lib Dem. On Friday there was not a single one. Ir's like this is happening to someone else.
There have been a few Leave/Grassroots Out stalls in central Edinburgh and Remain have definitely been out in a small way with stalls round my bit of north Edinburgh. But, no posters, and very few leaflets - about 20% of what I got in the Holyrood election.
It does feel a bit like its not our fight. I expect we'll turn up on Thursday, but most of the chat amongst friends and family shows our heart isn't really in it.
The reason there are fewer posters and campaigners in Scotland than in the Holyrood elections is because opinion is so one sided, according to yougov today 63% of Scots will vote Remain and just 38% Leave. Yet Scots will turnout, Yougov also has 77% of Scots certain to vote, a figure even higher than the UK total of 73% and over 20% higher than the 55% of Scots who voted in the Scottish Parliament elections. Indeed with Yougov having it 51% Remain 49% Leave across the UK Scottish voters could be decisive for Remain! Outside London it is the only region Yougov shows with a Remain lead
Tbh, the main reason there are fewer campaigners in Scotland is that we are just 6 weeks out of a hard fought Holyrood election. I know some people who are very active in the main parties and none of them are pounding the stairs this time, they gave it all in the election and want to spend time with families.
The biggest reasons to vote Remain aren't complicated. Britain is culturally, historically and geographically part of Europe; and we should be friends with the countries closest to us. Britain should break the tie with the US. De Gaulle was in the right direction: it's the continent or the Atlantic alliance.
Against that, there's immigration. British people were never seriously asked whether we wanted immigration at such a high level, and this is the first serious chance tell the elite and its scribes "No we don't".
Nope. Culturally, legally and historically we are far closer to the US and the rest of the Anglophone world than to Europe. That will always be the case no matter how much the Europhiles might try and claim otherwise.
Edit: Except for TSE of course who is clearly more French than British in his attitudes and behaviour.
The geometry is not linear. The US is closer to France in some respects than to the UK, and to Germany in other respects.
Your view seems to be in the tradition of the post-Suez lurch to subservience to America that Cyclefree wrote about yesterday.
Nope not at all. If you note I specifically excluded 'politically' from my list of ways we are closer to the US than the EU. It is undeniable that we are culturally closer to the US if only by dint of the fact we speak the same language. Our modern culture is inextricably linked with the US as far as music, TV and film are concerned whilst at the same time we share cultural references with the rest of the Anglophone world which simply don't exist with the rest of Europe.
This is in no way to play down the wonder of European culture but for better or worse we have a far greater cultural affinity with the US today than we do with Europe.
And that is before we even get onto legal systems or world view/philosophical outlook which is very much driven by language affinity.
"Neutralize the right wing extremist by voting to Leave".
That's a neat pivot. And we've plenty of evidence from the EU that the tensions are leading to it.
And you're not bothered by his using the death of Jo Cox - the obvious context - in this way? Considering her own views, I think it's typically unscrupulous of Boris.
Did you see Cameron use her death directly on the Remain FB page? It's a tragedy for her friends and family - and everyone else should butt out of it. But they can't resist - Massie and Polly were out of the gate within hours.
"Neutralize the right wing extremist by voting to Leave".
And he's right. The only thing that kills off Farage/UKIP, revitalises the Lib Dems as a true liberal party, and kills off immigration as a public issue (by giving them control over skills/numbers) is to Vote Leave.
So we neutralise right wing extremists by giving them what they want? Really? Is that the best Boris can do?
Tragedy is that it won't shut any of them up. The extremist will move on to fresh meat. Wonder what their next target will be.
There is a persuasive case anyway for ending the free and uncontrolled movement of labour within the EU, something that a large majority of people in the UK agree with. The fact that some extremist far right nutters agree with that shouldn't be a reason for not doing so. Johnson has now happened to come up with a further reason for ending open borders within the EU - that voting Leave to do so would deprive the far right of the fuel they need to thrive, at least in the UK, and I do not accept your premise that there is any other issue which could have the same effect on their fortunes. If the likes of Sweden and Denmark followed suit, it would have a similar effect on the thriving far right parties there, too.
No, I think that's mistaken. The far right doesn't depend on majority support, it depends on the feelings of the fringe. They would immediately move on to (a) "now Britain has the power to halt immigration the Government is still letting them in, they're traitors and (b) "it's time to throw the aliens out of our society".
Farage says he is going to release a new poster next week. Will it be more or less Nazi inspired going into the final week?
No, but Cameron, Corbyn, Farron and Sturgeon are preparing a joint poster quoting Julius Evola. At a recent meeting they all enthused about Evola's call for a united Europe.
The Final Wembley debate will not be as easy a win for leave as their ITV one was - Boris, Gisela Stuart and Andrea Leadsom are up against a more formidable line up of Sadiq Khan, Francis O'Grady and Ruth Davidson. It will be very interesting but I think Sadiq Khan will get much the better of Boris. However, as with everything in this campaign only a few more days to 'put up' with it
I would have thought that Remain would try to get someone in who might plausibly be thought to speak for middle England.
The vote will be won by labour voting remain, together with big votes in favour in London and Scotland so in my opinion the panel is perfectly targeted at the audience remain need to win over
6m voters London and Scotland 24m voters the rest
Isn't it 6m London, 6m Scotland, so 12m (one third of the total) between them?
The population and the voting electorate are different.
At the last election roughly 6m Scots and Londoners combined voted.
Roughly four times that number voted in the remainder of England and Wales.
London and Scotland generate an enormous amount of conversation for a relatively small proportion of the population.
Yes but London and Scotland will almost certainly win the referendum for Remain if Remain do win by less than a landslide, the North, the South and the Midlands and Wales back Leave in almost every poll it is only the comfortable Remain lead in London and the huge Remain lead in Scotland which gives Remain a narrow lead across the UK as a whole
And you're not bothered by his using the death of Jo Cox - the obvious context - in this way? Considering her own views, I think it's typically unscrupulous of Boris.
Everyone's using it. Politics is dirty.
As someone said here, politics isn't "show business for ugly people"; it's show business for c****.
Labour got a 50-60 odd seat majority with slightly worse (I think) figures in 2005.
2005 was shit, but 2015 is in a different league. Westminster is broken and not ready for more power as is.
No; 2015 was far less unrepresentative than 2005 or 2001. 36%:33% gives a majority of 66. 38%:31% gives a majority of 10. Which is less representative?
I think it may have something more to do with who won in 2001 and 2005.
I still find the line that went around last year about the Tories "only getting 24.6% of the electorate to vote for them but getting a majority - 50.8% of the seats" amusing in its staggering blinkeredness.
In 2005, Labour got 22.2% of the electorate to vote for them but got 54.9% of the seats. In 2001, Labour got 24.2% of the electorate (yes, less than the Tories in 2015) to vote for them, but 62.5% of the seats in a landslide majority.
Welcome back Andy - you've not been around much recently.
When the little kids did their pledge of allegiance then it shows the sights with the EU Flag, I just collapsed in a fit of giggles. But they missed a trick. Surely at the very end the little kids should have said "so help me Allah"?
Absolutely hilarious stuff. I do not see how anyone can take it seriously, even hardcore Leavers. This was done by Remain wasn't it? Only possible explanation.
Labour got a 50-60 odd seat majority with slightly worse (I think) figures in 2005.
2005 was shit, but 2015 is in a different league. Westminster is broken and not ready for more power as is.
No; 2015 was far less unrepresentative than 2005 or 2001. 36%:33% gives a majority of 66. 38%:31% gives a majority of 10. Which is less representative?
I think it may have something more to do with who won in 2001 and 2005.
I still find the line that went around last year about the Tories "only getting 24.6% of the electorate to vote for them but getting a majority - 50.8% of the seats" amusing in its staggering blinkeredness.
In 2005, Labour got 22.2% of the electorate to vote for them but got 54.9% of the seats. In 2001, Labour got 24.2% of the electorate (yes, less than the Tories in 2015) to vote for them, but 62.5% of the seats in a landslide majority.
To be fair most of those people complaining about a tory majority would like to see PR, and would have been happy to see rhymes with Bear without a majority.
Unless you're saying that while Leave is forever, if we do vote Remain, we might get another chance relatively soon?
Leave is indeed forever, and in a FPTP election you don't even need 50% of the electorate to elect a government with a thumping majority on a manifesto commitment to leave the EU, so at worst we get the chance to express a new opinion every 5 years.
Anyone who isn't sure should vote Remain.
Where's the evidence for your suggestion that Leave is forever? Much as I'd like it to be true, I don't see it being any more set in stone than Remaining.
The Final Wembley debate will not be as easy a win for leave as their ITV one was - Boris, Gisela Stuart and Andrea Leadsom are up against a more formidable line up of Sadiq Khan, Francis O'Grady and Ruth Davidson. It will be very interesting but I think Sadiq Khan will get much the better of Boris. However, as with everything in this campaign only a few more days to 'put up' with it
I would have thought that Remain would try to get someone in who might plausibly be thought to speak for middle England.
The vote will be won by labour voting remain, together with big votes in favour in London and Scotland so in my opinion the panel is perfectly targeted at the audience remain need to win over
6m voters London and Scotland 24m voters the rest
Isn't it 6m London, 6m Scotland, so 12m (one third of the total) between them?
The population and the voting electorate are different.
At the last election roughly 6m Scots and Londoners combined voted.
Roughly four times that number voted in the remainder of England and Wales.
London and Scotland generate an enormous amount of conversation for a relatively small proportion of the population.
Yes but London and Scotland will almost certainly win the referendum for Remain if Remain do win by less than a landslide, the North, the South and the Midlands and Wales back Leave in almost every poll it is only the comfortable Remain lead in London and the huge Remain lead in Scotland which gives Remain a narrow lead across the UK as a whole
Labour got a 50-60 odd seat majority with slightly worse (I think) figures in 2005.
2005 was shit, but 2015 is in a different league. Westminster is broken and not ready for more power as is.
No; 2015 was far less unrepresentative than 2005 or 2001. 36%:33% gives a majority of 66. 38%:31% gives a majority of 10. Which is less representative?
I think it may have something more to do with who won in 2001 and 2005.
I still find the line that went around last year about the Tories "only getting 24.6% of the electorate to vote for them but getting a majority - 50.8% of the seats" amusing in its staggering blinkeredness.
In 2005, Labour got 22.2% of the electorate to vote for them but got 54.9% of the seats. In 2001, Labour got 24.2% of the electorate (yes, less than the Tories in 2015) to vote for them, but 62.5% of the seats in a landslide majority.
Welcome back Andy - you've not been around much recently.
Thanks Haven't had much time in recent months, but have dipped in to lurk/browse every so often.
The biggest reasons to vote Remain aren't complicated. Britain is culturally, historically and geographically part of Europe; and we should be friends with the countries closest to us. Britain should break the tie with the US. De Gaulle was in the right direction: it's the continent or the Atlantic alliance.
Against that, there's immigration. British people were never seriously asked whether we wanted immigration at such a high level, and this is the first serious chance tell the elite and its scribes "No we don't".
Nope. Culturally, legally and historically we are far closer to the US and the rest of the Anglophone world than to Europe. That will always be the case no matter how much the Europhiles might try and claim otherwise.
Edit: Except for TSE of course who is clearly more French than British in his attitudes and behaviour.
The geometry is not linear. The US is closer to France in some respects than to the UK, and to Germany in other respects.
Your view seems to be in the tradition of the post-Suez lurch to subservience to America that Cyclefree wrote about yesterday.
Nope not at all. If you note I specifically excluded 'politically' from my list of ways we are closer to the US than the EU. It is undeniable that we are culturally closer to the US if only by dint of the fact we speak the same language. Our modern culture is inextricably linked with the US as far as music, TV and film are concerned whilst at the same time we share cultural references with the rest of the Anglophone world which simply don't exist with the rest of Europe.
This is in no way to play down the wonder of European culture but for better or worse we have a far greater cultural affinity with the US today than we do with Europe.
And that is before we even get onto legal systems or world view/philosophical outlook which is very much driven by language affinity.
I think we just have fundamentally different world views.
I see Britain as an indivisible part of Europe. This is not to say that Europe is a homogenised mass, or that we do not represent a distinct strand of its civilisation but we are very much part of it and have played a crucial role over many centuries in making Europe as a whole what it is today. This is a completely different historical experience from the US.
"Neutralize the right wing extremist by voting to Leave".
That's a neat pivot. And we've plenty of evidence from the EU that the tensions are leading to it.
And you're not bothered by his using the death of Jo Cox - the obvious context - in this way? Considering her own views, I think it's typically unscrupulous of Boris.
LIstening to Cameron's reported comments on BBC Radio 4 this morning, I was very much bothered by the way Cameron chose very directly to cite Jo Cox's views on the EU in order to appeal to people to vote Remain. I found that typically unscupulous.
I haven't heard Johnson's remarks, so I can't comment on the specific context. But the general point that right wing extremism would be neutered by voting Leave is a valid one.
The Final Wembley debate will not be as easy a win for leave as their ITV one was - Boris, Gisela Stuart and Andrea Leadsom are up against a more formidable line up of Sadiq Khan, Francis O'Grady and Ruth Davidson. It will be very interesting but I think Sadiq Khan will get much the better of Boris. However, as with everything in this campaign only a few more days to 'put up' with it
I would have thought that Remain would try to get someone in who might plausibly be thought to speak for middle England.
The vote will be won by labour voting remain, together with big votes in favour in London and Scotland so in my opinion the panel is perfectly targeted at the audience remain need to win over
6m voters London and Scotland 24m voters the rest
Isn't it 6m London, 6m Scotland, so 12m (one third of the total) between them?
The population and the voting electorate are different.
At the last election roughly 6m Scots and Londoners combined voted.
Roughly four times that number voted in the remainder of England and Wales.
London and Scotland generate an enormous amount of conversation for a relatively small proportion of the population.
Yes but London and Scotland will almost certainly win the referendum for Remain if Remain do win by less than a landslide, the North, the South and the Midlands and Wales back Leave in almost every poll it is only the comfortable Remain lead in London and the huge Remain lead in Scotland which gives Remain a narrow lead across the UK as a whole
Just a third of people feel they will be worse off? That's a fail.
From 22% to 33% is a "fall"?
You'll be telling us Turkey is joining the EU imminently next....
To reach just a third of people after months of going on about it is a fail.
To increase by 50% in 11 days is a "rise" in most people's books - but I realize we're into post-factual politics.
I think you keep seeing "fall" when people are actually saying "fail"
Quite right! The perils of reading pb.com on an iPhone!
On the point itself - let's see where we end up by polling day - if we've got 40% of the electorate thinking they'll be worse off I doubt LEAVE can win.
Comments
And on that dignified note, good day.
Boris says he is pro-immigration and supports an amnesty for illegal immigrants who've been in Britain for 12 years
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/17/united-kingdom-ukip-nigel-farage-leavers
36%:33% gives a majority of 66.
38%:31% gives a majority of 10.
Which is less representative?
"Neutralize the right wing extremist by voting to Leave".
So we can conclude the personal attacks on Boris failed, and, following the poster last Thursday, they now sense some mileage in going back to Farage.
I think it has only limited value to swing voters in England. It's really targeted at driving up Remain turnout in metro cities, London and Scotland.
I said that Lowlander's mother's criticism was based on her previous job, not on her murder.
I also said that it is possible to criticise the class of professional politicians <-> third sector workers who shift between both groups and arguably do neither a service.
I also said that I don't know Jo Cox and so it wasn't intended to be a criticism of her. Just simply that it is *possible* to come up with legitimate criticisms of people who work for the third sector.
(I don't work for my father, as it happens, but for a US public company)
Tragedy is that it won't shut any of them up. The extremist will move on to fresh meat. Wonder what their next target will be.
It's a pathetic argument worthy of an eight year old. Labour has anti-semites in their ranks. If you vote Labour (say), I wouldn't dream of accusing you of antisemitism.
The approach Hyde advocates is completely impractical. There are racists, bigots, cretins and obnoxious people in every single party or movement.
There's a ComRes telephone poll coming out on Wednesday 22 June. What others will there be?
Only the terminally stupid would believe Turkey is about to join the EU, but there is undoubtedly a terminally stupid vote out there - however there might be a price to pay for appealing to it.
Over the quota = 2 Scottish females , 2 Southern women, 5 females
Well below quota = 1 male
On quota = 1 Northern woman, 1 gay, 1 Asian, 1 from London (on quota)
Missing = Northen (inc Scottish) males, Midlands people, Welsh
Q: What demographic should be worrying REMAIN?
A: My guess would be Northern and Midlands males. So they respond by having no one to talk to them.....
London has the c.6 million voters but assuming only 70%-75% turnout probably only 4 million-4.5 million will vote.
So I think Scotland + London will deliver 8m votes at absolute best.
On Wednesday I'd expect MORI, ComRes, YouGov, Opinium, Survation and more...
The one we won't get is ICM because they announced they won't be polling again this side of the referendum,
You'll be telling us Turkey is joining the EU imminently next....
Consider the opposite: we do precisely nothing but ignore it, but associate anyone who has concerns about it with those same extremists, thus accentuating polarisation and division. How do you think that will calm tensions?
I'm astonished someone with your intelligence can't see this.
Against that, there's immigration. British people were never seriously asked whether we wanted immigration at such a high level, and this is the first serious chance to tell the elite (and its scribes, whether they write in the Times, the Guardian or somewhere else) "No we don't".
Mandelson resigned twice in disgrace and still won't go away
At the last election roughly 6m Scots and Londoners combined voted.
Roughly four times that number voted in the remainder of England and Wales.
London and Scotland generate an enormous amount of conversation for a relatively small proportion of the population.
I suspect it's a lot of AB professionals who thought they would do fine under Brexit suddenly thinking that taxes are going to go up. It might well reinforce the core vote rather than persuade waverers - you don't know without more data
Turnout is harder to judge, clearly there has been no campaigning but to an extent Independence is on the agenda again whereas for the Holyrood election, the SNP took it off the table and appeared to suffer a big hit on differential turnout.
Edit: Except for TSE of course who is clearly more French than British in his attitudes and behaviour.
Scotland – 61.2 remain 38.8 leave
London – 54.3 Remain 45.7 Leave
North – 46.3 Remain 53.7 Leave
Midlands – 42.8 Remain 57.2 Leave
Wales – 47.6 Remain 52.4 Leave
South – 46.9 Remain 53.1 Leave
NI – 48.1 Remain 51.9 Leave (tiny samples, mind)
Goodday all.
I see immigration as the UK's 2nd amendment issue. The Founding Fathers of the USA could never have imagined that the 'right to keep and bear arms' (written in the time of flintlock muskets) would apply in the same way to people toting semi-automatic assault rifles and high-mag handguns (e.g. Glock 19s).
Free movement of people was fine and dandy in the EU9 days. It's not so great in EU28 with its borders aflame and destablised.
I expect both Europe and the US to continue to flail around ineffectually trying to square their respective circles. While they do so, more lives will be ruined.
Your view seems to be in the tradition of the post-Suez lurch to subservience to America that Cyclefree wrote about yesterday.
Most of them appear to be young, left leaning, London ABs.
Were they ever going to vote any other way?
I'd go with those personally, but I expected London to come in at 70:30 for Remain. Scotland 75:25.
I suspect one of the problems we'll in building a consensus to look again at this is that the EU can quite rightly point to Britain and say, "We gave you tools to reduce the impact of the A10 accession and you chose not to use them because you thought it would give you an economic advantage over your neighbours. Now you want to tear up the rules because you don't like the effects of your own stupidity."
In 2005, Labour got 22.2% of the electorate to vote for them but got 54.9% of the seats.
In 2001, Labour got 24.2% of the electorate (yes, less than the Tories in 2015) to vote for them, but 62.5% of the seats in a landslide majority.
https://youtu.be/wo4Z9LBarg8
This is in no way to play down the wonder of European culture but for better or worse we have a far greater cultural affinity with the US today than we do with Europe.
And that is before we even get onto legal systems or world view/philosophical outlook which is very much driven by language affinity.
As someone said here, politics isn't "show business for ugly people"; it's show business for c****.
Absolutely hilarious stuff. I do not see how anyone can take it seriously, even hardcore Leavers. This was done by Remain wasn't it? Only possible explanation.
Haven't had much time in recent months, but have dipped in to lurk/browse every so often.
I see Britain as an indivisible part of Europe. This is not to say that Europe is a homogenised mass, or that we do not represent a distinct strand of its civilisation but we are very much part of it and have played a crucial role over many centuries in making Europe as a whole what it is today. This is a completely different historical experience from the US.
I haven't heard Johnson's remarks, so I can't comment on the specific context. But the general point that right wing extremism would be neutered by voting Leave is a valid one.
On the point itself - let's see where we end up by polling day - if we've got 40% of the electorate thinking they'll be worse off I doubt LEAVE can win.