politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Austro-Hungarian parable
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I'm not sure anyone was able to point me to the helpful spreadsheet of what results to expect per declaration based on a 50/50 vote earlier. Does anyone have a link?0
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If they are as good as osbornes wheexe today they will be comedy goldTheScreamingEagles said:
Is a messagespace targeted advert.another_richard said:
I have it as well.Sunil_Prasannan said:Right now I'm seeing a Labour Leave ad at the top of PB. The one with a pic of Dave and George and the caption "Wipe the smile off their faces. Vote Leave on June 23rd"
Its also on UKPR.
Wait until you see the Remain ads coming up for the next 8 days.0 -
Golly
Dorset MP Richard Drax calls Osborne's punishment budget "An astonishing, irresponsible, unworthy threat" https://t.co/hPGVdFGm3x0 -
I believe George Osborne has just dismissed the Tory revolt on his brexit emergency budget. Does this man have a death wish, he's destroying the Conservative party. A lot of very angry tories on LBC.
Is there anyway he and the PM could force this through without a vote, i.e an Act of Parliament (I'm not an 'expert')?0 -
It is awful history.scotslass said:The John M
As it happens Braveheart wasn't bad history at all. It got the essence of the story right. The Plataginat expansionists got their comeuppance at the hands of the plucky Scots. The source for Randall Wallace's script was a 15th century Scots rymer called Blind Harry. It was therefore better history than just about any other Hollywood historical blockbuster.
It left out "The Bridge" from the Battle of Stirling Bridge!
!!!0 -
One for PB Lancastrians, Yorkshire took on Lancashire in a cricket match today.
Yorkshire's biggest runs margin in one-day cricket in a Roses trouncing. Gory details here
http://www.espncricinfo.com/ci/engine/match/947427.html0 -
I liked the coalition, moderate policies that brought us out of the financial crisis with low unemployment and low inflation. I understand how austerity hurt but it was the same for most of us and things could have gone so much worse.kle4 said:
There is, but I confidently predict, on nothing but history and gut, that there will be no realignment, even if it would be a bloody good idea. Personally I'd have probably voted for a Coalition party last time if one was available. But no one will be offering that.Thrak said:If the conservative right wing and the labour left wing are going to be in charge, plus with the national invisibility of the Liberal Democrats, surely the coming political realignment is going to include a new centrist grouping? That's a very large area being left open to exploit.
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Well he IS one of the most influential pensioners on Twitter!Pulpstar said:
It did cause a short run on the pound for about 10 minutes !GIN1138 said:
OGH is on holiday (back next week I think)peter_from_putney said:OGH has been surprisingly quiet this past week or so, especially in view of all the excitement about the matter in hand and the multitude of polls relating thereto.
I do hope he's OK.
However, one if his tweets on Monday very nearly caused a run on the Pound when he tweeted incorrect numbers for an ICM poll!
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What happened to the AV thread you were promising?TheScreamingEagles said:
Is a messagespace targeted advert.another_richard said:
I have it as well.Sunil_Prasannan said:Right now I'm seeing a Labour Leave ad at the top of PB. The one with a pic of Dave and George and the caption "Wipe the smile off their faces. Vote Leave on June 23rd"
Its also on UKPR.
Wait until you see the Remain ads coming up for the next 8 days.0 -
Anecdote alert.
On another forum, there are a bunch of French and German posters who claim the UK is widely seen on the continent as a nation of whiners, nostalgic for empire, who have spent the last 40 years demanding special treatment. They say that if we leave the EU we won't be missed, and if we stay we'll be expected to become good European citizens, abandoning all opt-outs.
Of course, the opinion of random internet commentators is not a reliable guide to the majority view in France or Germany, but this does suggest that after a British exit, populist politicians trying to whip up anti-UK sentiment might find fertile ground.0 -
BMG tonight. MORI tomorrow.reverend_cat said:Have we got BMG and Ipso mori tonight? Or is that tomorrow?
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And then today http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3641873/Britain-caves-talks-Turkey-joining-EU-Leave-campaigners-say-climbdown-makes-mockery-Cameron-s-claim-country-not-join-EU-year-3000.htmlSouthamObserver said:And if he really believes that the government will not use its veto to prevent Turkey joining the EU then he believes that David Cameron is a liar.
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@Omnium
'People are also really very annoyed at the doom, more doom, and hang on we've found even more doom, argument.
You're not scared, I'm not scared, I think we can conclude that nobody being scared is at least something of a runner.'
Agree project fear that's now switched to project terror, it may affect some people but the majority will see it for the childish nonsense it is.
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The government lied and knew it was lying.john_zims said:@Bromptonaut@
@Thrak
'Populism when released is a dangerous animal.'
Wanting to have a GP appointment when your ill, a school that's not overcrowded for your kids and affordable housing is somehow 'POPULISM & RACISM'.
Can't believe how out of touch you are, you need to get out of your bubble occasionally.
'Fixing those things does not require us to leave the EU. It just needs a Government which chooses to fix those things.'
How can you fix any of those things when you don't know & have no control of the number of people coming into the country ?
Government manifesto target 2010 100,000,330,000 net migration last year, what's your guess for this year ?
The idea that Gove and Boris - strong supporters of austerity and of eliminating the deficit by 2020 - are suddenly going to start supporting higher public spending is beyond absurd.
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Jim Pickard
Cameron's secret plan to spring Trident vote in July (if he wins referendum) to scatter discord in Labour ranks. https://t.co/GvU998o87X0 -
LOLRichard_Nabavi said:
Darling and Osborne caused the financial crash?another_richard said:
Here's the link for those who want to see Darling and Osborne's fiscal catastrophe in numbers:another_richard said:Have Darling and Osborne really united in peddling scare stories about the public finances ???
This pair have continuously been in charge of public finances since June 2007.
During that time the government debt has increased from £544bn to £1,596bn.
They borrowed between them over a TRILLION pounds in under a decade and now they're pretending to believe in sound financial management ???
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/timeseries/hf6w
Well, it's a view, I suppose. Not a very sane one, though.
Is that really the best you can respond with.
In fact I was too generous to Darling and Osborne - they borrowed over a TRILLION pounds in under nine years.
The next government borrowing data is released on Tuesday.
Perhaps we'll see an emergency budget to fund it - after all Osborne predicted we would have a budget surplus this year.
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Listening to Gove tonight he said we would be out of the EU by 2020 but did not give a date after that when control of immigration would be mandated. On the assumption it took another two years for legislation we are looking at upto 6 more years of uncontrolled immigration and indeed a big increase as those who want to come here beat the deadline. I believe so many who are voting leave are looking for an immediate impact and they are going to be seriously disappointed. On George Osborne he has lost the plot completely today and has to go, 24th June would be idealjohn_zims said:@Bromptonaut@
@Thrak
'Populism when released is a dangerous animal.'
Wanting to have a GP appointment when your ill, a school that's not overcrowded for your kids and affordable housing is somehow 'POPULISM & RACISM'.
Can't believe how out of touch you are, you need to get out of your bubble occasionally.
'Fixing those things does not require us to leave the EU. It just needs a Government which chooses to fix those things.'
How can you fix any of those things when you don't know & have no control of the number of people coming into the country ?
Government manifesto target 2010 100,000,330,000 net migration last year, what's your guess for this year ?0 -
Apocryphally Gibson was asked why he removed it,Tim_B said:
The battle of Stirling Bridge could also have done with a river. If you remove the river and bridge there is no point in the battle.CarlottaVance said:
Sharon Krossa notes that the film contains numerous historical errors, beginning with the wearing of belted plaid by Wallace and his men. In that period "no Scots ... wore belted plaids (let alone kilts of any kind)." Moreover, when Highlanders finally did begin wearing the belted plaid, it was not "in the rather bizarre style depicted in the film". She compares the inaccuracy to "a film about Colonial America showing the colonial men wearing 20th century business suits, but with the jackets worn back-to-front instead of the right way around.Sean_F said:
Oh come on! Edward I didn't throw Piers Gaveston out of window. Queen Isabella didn't have an affair with Wallace (she was 5 when Wallace died). Wallace wasn't the father of Edward III.scotslass said:The John M
As it happens Braveheart wasn't bad history at all. It got the essence of the story right. The Plataginat expansionists got their comeuppance at the hands of the plucky Scots. The source for Randall Wallace's script was a 15th century Scots rymer called Blind Harry. It was therefore better history than just about any other Hollywood historical blockbuster.
"The events aren't accurate, the dates aren't accurate, the characters aren't accurate, the names aren't accurate, the clothes aren't accurate—in short, just about nothing is accurate." The belted plaid (feileadh mór léine) was not introduced until the 16th century.
Peter Traquair has referred to Wallace's "farcical representation as a wild and hairy highlander painted with woad (1,000 years too late) running amok in a tartan kilt (500 years too early)."
Irish historian, Seán Duffy remarked "the battle of Stirling Bridge could have done with a bridge."
In 2009, the film was second on a list of "most historically inaccurate movies" in The Times.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Braveheart#Historical_inaccuracy
"It got in the way of the action" he replied
"Aye, that's what the English found too".0 -
Anyone claiming Turkey will join the EU in our lifetimes is a fool or a liar.Indigo said:
And then today http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3641873/Britain-caves-talks-Turkey-joining-EU-Leave-campaigners-say-climbdown-makes-mockery-Cameron-s-claim-country-not-join-EU-year-3000.htmlSouthamObserver said:And if he really believes that the government will not use its veto to prevent Turkey joining the EU then he believes that David Cameron is a liar.
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I am sure that the Mail has given a completely accurate account of events ;-)Indigo said:
And then today http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3641873/Britain-caves-talks-Turkey-joining-EU-Leave-campaigners-say-climbdown-makes-mockery-Cameron-s-claim-country-not-join-EU-year-3000.htmlSouthamObserver said:And if he really believes that the government will not use its veto to prevent Turkey joining the EU then he believes that David Cameron is a liar.
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Will be published by Sunday.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
What happened to the AV thread you were promising?TheScreamingEagles said:
Is a messagespace targeted advert.another_richard said:
I have it as well.Sunil_Prasannan said:Right now I'm seeing a Labour Leave ad at the top of PB. The one with a pic of Dave and George and the caption "Wipe the smile off their faces. Vote Leave on June 23rd"
Its also on UKPR.
Wait until you see the Remain ads coming up for the next 8 days.0 -
Great post.SeanT said:
No, I AM scared. Only a fool would be entirely sanguine. It's scary. But crucially:Omnium said:
People are also really very annoyed at the doom, more doom, and hang on we've found even more doom, argument.SeanT said:reverend_cat said:Leave out to 2.9 on Betfair....
Everyone wants to back Remain when the polls aren't out.
Some super confident people out there.
Despite what I've just said, with a gun to my head I'd still predict a REMAIN win. People ARE scared. Enough will wobble
You're not scared, I'm not scared, I think we can conclude that nobody being scared is at least something of a runner.
I'm with you though on Remain still being the most likely outcome.
1. I think I have enough money to cope with any likely recession, house price falls Etc
And
2. Being a geek, I know that staying in the EU is arguably much scarier, given what they've got in store for us, and how the Eurozone will have to federalise then caucus Etc
So I'm still OUT.
But Most people are neither rich nor geeky. Going by my Babymother Bellwether, enough will wobble. And I don't blame them one jot. They must think for themselves and their families.0 -
It's much funnier than that, he said he would use Labour votes to get it though, yes that's right, labour votes to introduce cuts to the NHS and Education and increase taxes on working people. The man is cracking under the strain I feel.LadyBucket said:Is there anyway he and the PM could force this through without a vote, i.e an Act of Parliament (I'm not an 'expert')?
He also threatened to increase the higher rate by 2% thereby undoing all the good work Dave has been doing trying to detox cutting it from 50% to 45% because it would raise more tax, by telling everyone he was going to raise it... to raise more tax.
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Ha, ha. Dave has another cunning plan.PlatoSaid said:Jim Pickard
Cameron's secret plan to spring Trident vote in July (if he wins referendum) to scatter discord in Labour ranks. https://t.co/GvU998o87X
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Good evening, everyone.
I've been enjoying the possibility that Leave might, just might, be in with a chance.
But I have to admit I'm not looking forward to the pleasure & delight on Mr Cameron's face when he acknowledges that the country has voted for Ever-Closer-EUnion and full steam ahead and no looking back and so on.0 -
This photo posted by a housepricecrash correspondent sums up remains problem.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ck-qFwVWsAI9ABC.jpg.
Source
http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/210123-the-official-only-pinned-brexit-remain-thread-all-new-threads-will-be-merged-into-this-one/page-122#entry11029590900 -
It may well be that the mooted "emergency austerity budget" is more associated with the Cameron and Osborne regime (and thereby Remain) than it is with Leave. I don't think it a master strategy.alex. said:It's possible that Osborne's budget stuff today was quite simply a desperate attempt to get the campaign away from Immigation, immigration, immigration. People don't have to believe the extent of the warnings, but at least they will be thinking about something other than immigration. And presumably the idea is to get people thinking "that's scaremongering, it won't be anywhere near that bad", but as long as they still think it will be a little bit bad then that is probably enough.
It's the flipside of Leave exaggerating the contributions we make to the EU, it's not best countered by "it's nothing like £350m it's much less than that".
I think that Leave must mean an early election. Replacing a Leader between elections is never very popular, but replacing nearly an entire government and manifesto without an election is an insult to democracy.0 -
Or he believes Cameron won't be PM when the decision is made.SouthamObserver said:
He certainly does not believe in putting the consumer before the producer. He believes in limiting the consumer's choice in services, for example: plumbing, plastering, building etc.Patrick said:But to be fair to Gove, he is very good at delivering a lie.
'The most important quality for a politician to have is sincerity - and if you can fake that well you've got it made'. But in Gove's case he IS sincere. He put himself through serious grief to take on the Blob at Education for no obvious personal gain. He believes in a small state and putting the consumer before the producer. He'd make a fine PM.
And if he really believes that the government will not use its veto to prevent Turkey joining the EU then he believes that David Cameron is a liar. Thus meaning he wants a liar and someone we cannot trust to be our leader.0 -
Believe it is also Heathrow decision vote in July. Going to be a busy month, with the aftermath of the referendum, Chilcot, Trident and Heathrow. Think by the time I go to Tuscany at the end of July politics will be on life support, but I hope we can all get back to sensible and a kinder discourse to each other by thenPlatoSaid said:Jim Pickard
Cameron's secret plan to spring Trident vote in July (if he wins referendum) to scatter discord in Labour ranks. https://t.co/GvU998o87X0 -
As folks struggle to cope with events of the last week in Orlando, for dog lovers, this is a special gift they know all too well. Man's best friend once again proves he's indispensable.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3641633/Meet-adorable-comfort-dogs-flown-country-support-relatives-victims-volunteers-Orlando.html0 -
You folks aware of this?
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2016/06/14/reports-alligator-drags-child-into-water-fla/85905266/0 -
Likewise, I do not blame ordinary punters for voting Leave. Whole areas have changed, austerity has put huge numbers of people under financial pressure and left them worrying about being able to supply even the basics for their families. I can see why they feel they have nothing to lose by voting to get out of the EU. I do think they are going to end up extremely disillusioned and disappointed though.SeanT said:
No, I AM scared. Only a fool would be entirely sanguine. It's scary. But crucially:Omnium said:
People are also really very annoyed at the doom, more doom, and hang on we've found even more doom, argument.SeanT said:reverend_cat said:Leave out to 2.9 on Betfair....
Everyone wants to back Remain when the polls aren't out.
Some super confident people out there.
Despite what I've just said, with a gun to my head I'd still predict a REMAIN win. People ARE scared. Enough will wobble
You're not scared, I'm not scared, I think we can conclude that nobody being scared is at least something of a runner.
I'm with you though on Remain still being the most likely outcome.
1. I think I have enough money to cope with any likely recession, house price falls Etc
And
2. Being a geek, I know that staying in the EU is arguably much scarier, given what they've got in store for us, and how the Eurozone will have to federalise then caucus Etc
So I'm still OUT.
But Most people are neither rich nor geeky. Going by my Babymother Bellwether, enough will wobble. And I don't blame them one jot. They must think for themselves and their families.
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@foxinsoxuk
'I think that Leave must mean an early election. Replacing a Leader between elections is never very popular, but replacing nearly an entire government and manifesto without an election is an insult to democracy.'
What ?
The referendum was a key policy in the 2015 manifesto and the government is chosen from the MP's elected from the winning party.
Should we also have an election each time there is a significant change of government ministers ?
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No, he specifically said this government will not use its veto because this government backs Turkish EU membership.Philip_Thompson said:
Or he believes Cameron won't be PM when the decision is made.SouthamObserver said:
He certainly does not believe in putting the consumer before the producer. He believes in limiting the consumer's choice in services, for example: plumbing, plastering, building etc.Patrick said:But to be fair to Gove, he is very good at delivering a lie.
'The most important quality for a politician to have is sincerity - and if you can fake that well you've got it made'. But in Gove's case he IS sincere. He put himself through serious grief to take on the Blob at Education for no obvious personal gain. He believes in a small state and putting the consumer before the producer. He'd make a fine PM.
And if he really believes that the government will not use its veto to prevent Turkey joining the EU then he believes that David Cameron is a liar. Thus meaning he wants a liar and someone we cannot trust to be our leader.
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We need an election to decide what kind of Leave we want.foxinsoxuk said:
It may well be that the mooted "emergency austerity budget" is more associated with the Cameron and Osborne regime (and thereby Remain) than it is with Leave. I don't think it a master strategy.alex. said:It's possible that Osborne's budget stuff today was quite simply a desperate attempt to get the campaign away from Immigation, immigration, immigration. People don't have to believe the extent of the warnings, but at least they will be thinking about something other than immigration. And presumably the idea is to get people thinking "that's scaremongering, it won't be anywhere near that bad", but as long as they still think it will be a little bit bad then that is probably enough.
It's the flipside of Leave exaggerating the contributions we make to the EU, it's not best countered by "it's nothing like £350m it's much less than that".
I think that Leave must mean an early election. Replacing a Leader between elections is never very popular, but replacing nearly an entire government and manifesto without an election is an insult to democracy.
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As I have said before I think it much more likely they will threaten and blackmail their way to 60-70% of the benefits of being an EU member without actually ever becoming an EU member. If one of those benefits is a trade agreement which includes a right of residency in the EU for its citizens, all bets are off.rcs1000 said:
Anyone claiming Turkey will join the EU in our lifetimes is a fool or a liar.Indigo said:
And then today http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3641873/Britain-caves-talks-Turkey-joining-EU-Leave-campaigners-say-climbdown-makes-mockery-Cameron-s-claim-country-not-join-EU-year-3000.htmlSouthamObserver said:And if he really believes that the government will not use its veto to prevent Turkey joining the EU then he believes that David Cameron is a liar.
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Which one is Michael Gove?rcs1000 said:
Anyone claiming Turkey will join the EU in our lifetimes is a fool or a liar.Indigo said:
And then today http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3641873/Britain-caves-talks-Turkey-joining-EU-Leave-campaigners-say-climbdown-makes-mockery-Cameron-s-claim-country-not-join-EU-year-3000.htmlSouthamObserver said:And if he really believes that the government will not use its veto to prevent Turkey joining the EU then he believes that David Cameron is a liar.
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Been all over our TV. What an awful story. Makes a change from a dingoTim_B said:You folks aware of this?
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2016/06/14/reports-alligator-drags-child-into-water-fla/85905266/0 -
I think that is a very fair comment on how others see us and the idea we will get great or even good trade deals is somewhat fancifulRobert_Of_Sheffield said:Anecdote alert.
On another forum, there are a bunch of French and German posters who claim the UK is widely seen on the continent as a nation of whiners, nostalgic for empire, who have spent the last 40 years demanding special treatment. They say that if we leave the EU we won't be missed, and if we stay we'll be expected to become good European citizens, abandoning all opt-outs.
Of course, the opinion of random internet commentators is not a reliable guide to the majority view in France or Germany, but this does suggest that after a British exit, populist politicians trying to whip up anti-UK sentiment might find fertile ground.0 -
Yes, we were saying earlier that Orlando is having an annus horribilis. The poor parents, they must be going out of their mindsTim_B said:You folks aware of this?
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2016/06/14/reports-alligator-drags-child-into-water-fla/85905266/
. 0 -
If you had said in 1988 . 'Anyone claiming that East Germany, Poland, Hungary, Romania and Estonia would be joining the EU and Nato in our lifetimes and that Germany will unite and be run by an East Germwn Agiitprop agent is a fool or a liar........rcs1000 said:
Anyone claiming Turkey will join the EU in our lifetimes is a fool or a liar.Indigo said:
And then today http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3641873/Britain-caves-talks-Turkey-joining-EU-Leave-campaigners-say-climbdown-makes-mockery-Cameron-s-claim-country-not-join-EU-year-3000.htmlSouthamObserver said:And if he really believes that the government will not use its veto to prevent Turkey joining the EU then he believes that David Cameron is a liar.
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Pleased to hear that - it's just that he normally has the odd few words of wisdom to add, especially when the betting markets are so busy and varied as they are at present.TheScreamingEagles said:
Mike's on holiday until next Monday, he knows he can put his feet up when I'm in charge as nothing happens on his holiday.peter_from_putney said:OGH has been surprisingly quiet this past week or so, especially in view of all the excitement about the matter in hand and the multitude of polls relating thereto.
I do hope he's OK.0 -
I shall look forward to it :-)TheScreamingEagles said:
Will be published by Sunday.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
What happened to the AV thread you were promising?TheScreamingEagles said:
Is a messagespace targeted advert.another_richard said:
I have it as well.Sunil_Prasannan said:Right now I'm seeing a Labour Leave ad at the top of PB. The one with a pic of Dave and George and the caption "Wipe the smile off their faces. Vote Leave on June 23rd"
Its also on UKPR.
Wait until you see the Remain ads coming up for the next 8 days.0 -
Pogba left out for France...has there been a bust up?0
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In this era of health and safety the idea that someone could go to a category one theme park and be eaten by an alligator hiding in a pond is quite mind boggling.John_M said:
Yes, we were saying earlier that Orlando is having an annus horribilis. The poor parents, they must be going out of their mindsTim_B said:You folks aware of this?
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2016/06/14/reports-alligator-drags-child-into-water-fla/85905266/.0 -
FWIW I went through the comments on the Der Spiegel special, and it was very much like pb. Some positive, some negative (whatever happens, I want a bilateral deal with Germany. We stop mentioning Hitler, they stop mentioning the fucking Empire). Much higher proportion of nutjobs.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I think that is a very fair comment on how others see us and the idea we will get great or even good trade deals is somewhat fancifulRobert_Of_Sheffield said:Anecdote alert.
On another forum, there are a bunch of French and German posters who claim the UK is widely seen on the continent as a nation of whiners, nostalgic for empire, who have spent the last 40 years demanding special treatment. They say that if we leave the EU we won't be missed, and if we stay we'll be expected to become good European citizens, abandoning all opt-outs.
Of course, the opinion of random internet commentators is not a reliable guide to the majority view in France or Germany, but this does suggest that after a British exit, populist politicians trying to whip up anti-UK sentiment might find fertile ground.
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Ok, so why are you scared?SeanT said:
No, I AM scared. Only a fool would be entirely sanguine. It's scary. But crucially:Omnium said:
People are also really very annoyed at the doom, more doom, and hang on we've found even more doom, argument.SeanT said:reverend_cat said:Leave out to 2.9 on Betfair....
Everyone wants to back Remain when the polls aren't out.
Some super confident people out there.
Despite what I've just said, with a gun to my head I'd still predict a REMAIN win. People ARE scared. Enough will wobble
You're not scared, I'm not scared, I think we can conclude that nobody being scared is at least something of a runner.
I'm with you though on Remain still being the most likely outcome.
1. I think I have enough money to cope with any likely recession, house price falls Etc
And
2. Being a geek, I know that staying in the EU is arguably much scarier, given what they've got in store for us, and how the Eurozone will have to federalise then caucus Etc
So I'm still OUT.
But Most people are neither rich nor geeky. Going by my Babymother Bellwether, enough will wobble. And I don't blame them one jot. They must think for themselves and their families.
I wish I was entirely sanguine, if only to earn the tag, but I'm not. It's tricky - very, very tricky. I think that the EU has consistently done us a disservice, and I think that we've had diabolical politicians when the big choices are bot within their grasp. I think too that Johnny-EnglishWoman is less than she once was.
I'm Leave, but I so much want to not be.
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So in July 2015 Osborne predicted that government debt would end the year at 80.3% of GDP:
https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/chancellor-george-osbornes-summer-budget-2015-speech
It actually was 83.7% of GDP:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/timeseries/hf6x
Are we expecting an emergency budget to patch that black hole ?
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Quite so. Things have gone much too far now for us to stay.Robert_Of_Sheffield said:Anecdote alert.
On another's forum, there are a bunch of French and German posters who claim the UK is widely seen on the continent as a nation of whiners, nostalgic for empire, who have spent the last 40 years demanding special treatment. They say that if we leave the EU we won't be missed, and if we stay we'll be expected to become good European citizens, abandoning all opt-outs.
Of course, the opinion of random internet commentators is not a reliable guide to the majority view in France or Germany, but this does suggest that after a British exit, populist politicians trying to whip up anti-UK sentiment might find fertile ground.
We must Leave and see this through.0 -
This government and every prior government has backed Turkish EU membership. It is FCO policy and Sir Humphrey will ensure any future PM backs it.SouthamObserver said:
No, he specifically said this government will not use its veto because this government backs Turkish EU membership.Philip_Thompson said:
Or he believes Cameron won't be PM when the decision is made.SouthamObserver said:
He certainly does not believe in putting the consumer before the producer. He believes in limiting the consumer's choice in services, for example: plumbing, plastering, building etc.Patrick said:But to be fair to Gove, he is very good at delivering a lie.
'The most important quality for a politician to have is sincerity - and if you can fake that well you've got it made'. But in Gove's case he IS sincere. He put himself through serious grief to take on the Blob at Education for no obvious personal gain. He believes in a small state and putting the consumer before the producer. He'd make a fine PM.
And if he really believes that the government will not use its veto to prevent Turkey joining the EU then he believes that David Cameron is a liar. Thus meaning he wants a liar and someone we cannot trust to be our leader.0 -
Good point. I thought the nurse was very good. I really liked what she said about immigrants just being used and disposed of when we thought they weren't needed anymore. The audience liked it too.SouthamObserver said:
A bloke on the Gove thing just now asked about repatriation and suggested it might be needed.midwinter said:
And the retirement areas on the south coastThrak said:
What bubble? I've been surrounded by this type of person and they think that leave is going to stop all immigration and some, who consider this relatively liberal, expect voluntary but stop at forced repatriation. You can't have much contact with the WWC if you don't realise that a party offering those things would walk into many northern town constituencies.john_zims said:@Thrak
'Populism when released is a dangerous animal.'
Wanting to have a GP appointment when your ill, a school that's not overcrowded for your kids and affordable housing is somehow 'POPULISM & RACISM'.
Can't believe how out of touch you are, you need to get out of your bubble occasionally.
I thought the reaction of the Spanish nurse, who has been here for fourteen years, was very interesting. Talking tough on immigration will win Leave the referendum, clearly. But then Gove and Boris have to go to Europe to get their deal. There are going to be a lot of voters in countries like Spain, Poland, the Czech Republic who will have heard what the Leave side have said about EU immigrants and - probably more pertinently - seen the headlines in the tabloids and they will not be wanting their governments to give the UK an easy time. There are lot more British immigrants in Spain, for example, than there are Spanish ones in the UK. I am not sure that Poland has a huge trade surplus with the UK, or that many Eastern European countries do.
Winning is one thing. But with everything they say and do Leave are making delivery that much harder.
There are going to be a lot of very disgruntled voters when immigration doesn't come down quickly because whether Leave like it or not a lot of their (older particularly) voters are mainly interested in stopping foreigners living here, at least where I live.0 -
Yes. Lithuania, Greece or Slovakia can block any new trade treaty between the EU and UK if they choose.SouthamObserver said:
A bloke on the Gove thing just now asked about repatriation and suggested it might be needed.midwinter said:
And the retirement areas on the south coastThrak said:
What bubble? I've been surrounded by this type of person and they think that leave is going to stop all immigration and some, who consider this relatively liberal, expect voluntary but stop at forced repatriation. You can't have much contact with the WWC if you don't realise that a party offering those things would walk into many northern town constituencies.john_zims said:@Thrak
'Populism when released is a dangerous animal.'
Wanting to have a GP appointment when your ill, a school that's not overcrowded for your kids and affordable housing is somehow 'POPULISM & RACISM'.
Can't believe how out of touch you are, you need to get out of your bubble occasionally.
I thought the reaction of the Spanish nurse, who has been here for fourteen years, was very interesting. Talking tough on immigration will win Leave the referendum, clearly. But then Gove and Boris have to go to Europe to get their deal. There are going to be a lot of voters in countries like Spain, Poland, the Czech Republic who will have heard what the Leave side have said about EU immigrants and - probably more pertinently - seen the headlines in the tabloids and they will not be wanting their governments to give the UK an easy time. There are lot more British immigrants in Spain, for example, than there are Spanish ones in the UK. I am not sure that Poland has a huge trade surplus with the UK, or that many Eastern European countries do.
Winning is one thing. But with everything they say and do Leave are making delivery that much harder.
Don't make too many enemies on your way up, because you are likely to meet them again on your way down.0 -
Ridiculous. We hold the fate of the universe in our hands, of course they will assent to our demands.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I think that is a very fair comment on how others see us and the idea we will get great or even good trade deals is somewhat fancifulRobert_Of_Sheffield said:Anecdote alert.
On another forum, there are a bunch of French and German posters who claim the UK is widely seen on the continent as a nation of whiners, nostalgic for empire, who have spent the last 40 years demanding special treatment. They say that if we leave the EU we won't be missed, and if we stay we'll be expected to become good European citizens, abandoning all opt-outs.
Of course, the opinion of random internet commentators is not a reliable guide to the majority view in France or Germany, but this does suggest that after a British exit, populist politicians trying to whip up anti-UK sentiment might find fertile ground.0 -
Of course. Gove was being a little disingenuous to say the least.Philip_Thompson said:
This government and every prior government has backed Turkish EU membership. It is FCO policy and Sir Humphrey will ensure any future PM backs it.SouthamObserver said:
No, he specifically said this government will not use its veto because this government backs Turkish EU membership.Philip_Thompson said:
Or he believes Cameron won't be PM when the decision is made.SouthamObserver said:
He certainly does not believe in putting the consumer before the producer. He believes in limiting the consumer's choice in services, for example: plumbing, plastering, building etc.Patrick said:But to be fair to Gove, he is very good at delivering a lie.
'The most important quality for a politician to have is sincerity - and if you can fake that well you've got it made'. But in Gove's case he IS sincere. He put himself through serious grief to take on the Blob at Education for no obvious personal gain. He believes in a small state and putting the consumer before the producer. He'd make a fine PM.
And if he really believes that the government will not use its veto to prevent Turkey joining the EU then he believes that David Cameron is a liar. Thus meaning he wants a liar and someone we cannot trust to be our leader.
0 -
Europe too have a smug elite of pro Europe AB liberal internationalists and increasingly annoyed working class and small c conservatives. We tend to see and hear a lot more of the former category.SeanT said:
But you can also find LOTS of European commenters who admire Britain for standing up to Brussels, for having the guts to hold a referendum, for always fighting our corner, etcRobert_Of_Sheffield said:Anecdote alert.
On another forum, there are a bunch of French and German posters who claim the UK is widely seen on the continent as a nation of whiners, nostalgic for empire, who have spent the last 40 years demanding special treatment. They say that if we leave the EU we won't be missed, and if we stay we'll be expected to become good European citizens, abandoning all opt-outs.
Of course, the opinion of random internet commentators is not a reliable guide to the majority view in France or Germany, but this does suggest that after a British exit, populist politicians trying to whip up anti-UK sentiment might find fertile ground.
Some of them actively want OUT to win, to screw Brussels. Italians in particular think this. And swedes.0 -
Quite. Even by Osborne's standards, it must've taken a special kind of logic to think "I'm a bastard who wants to hit your pocketbook, so vote Remain to keep me in office" was a winning message.foxinsoxuk said:
It may well be that the mooted "emergency austerity budget" is more associated with the Cameron and Osborne regime (and thereby Remain) than it is with Leave. I don't think it a master strategy.alex. said:It's possible that Osborne's budget stuff today was quite simply a desperate attempt to get the campaign away from Immigation, immigration, immigration. People don't have to believe the extent of the warnings, but at least they will be thinking about something other than immigration. And presumably the idea is to get people thinking "that's scaremongering, it won't be anywhere near that bad", but as long as they still think it will be a little bit bad then that is probably enough.
It's the flipside of Leave exaggerating the contributions we make to the EU, it's not best countered by "it's nothing like £350m it's much less than that".0 -
Polling staff in my area (South West London) have been told to expect 80% turnout. Not sure how that would extrapolate across the country.DanSmith said:0 -
We haven't had austerity.SouthamObserver said:
Likewise, I do not blame ordinary punters for voting Leave. Whole areas have changed, austerity has put huge numbers of people under financial pressure and left them worrying about being able to supply even the basics for their families. I can see why they feel they have nothing to lose by voting to get out of the EU. I do think they are going to end up extremely disillusioned and disappointed though.SeanT said:
No, I AM scared. Only a fool would be entirely sanguine. It's scary. But crucially:Omnium said:
People are also really very annoyed at the doom, more doom, and hang on we've found even more doom, argument.SeanT said:reverend_cat said:Leave out to 2.9 on Betfair....
Everyone wants to back Remain when the polls aren't out.
Some super confident people out there.
Despite what I've just said, with a gun to my head I'd still predict a REMAIN win. People ARE scared. Enough will wobble
You're not scared, I'm not scared, I think we can conclude that nobody being scared is at least something of a runner.
I'm with you though on Remain still being the most likely outcome.
1. I think I have enough money to cope with any likely recession, house price falls Etc
And
2. Being a geek, I know that staying in the EU is arguably much scarier, given what they've got in store for us, and how the Eurozone will have to federalise then caucus Etc
So I'm still OUT.
But Most people are neither rich nor geeky. Going by my Babymother Bellwether, enough will wobble. And I don't blame them one jot. They must think for themselves and their families.
But there have been government cuts - some politically motivated to free up money for other politically motivated spending increases.
Now I'm sure all governments have done that to a certain extent but it would have been masked previously by general growth in the economy.
In the modern stagnant economy we're in a zero sum game - to bribe its own supporters governments have to hurt someone else.
Or borrow a few hundred billion more.
0 -
It's certainly true that it is engaging people who aren't normally interested in politics. It's been quite a pleasant surprise in that way.SeanT said:
Interestingly, a lot of my anger at REMAINIACS has abated (apart from the senior politicians, and some of the more nauseating PB-ers)SouthamObserver said:
Likewise, I do not blame ordinary punters for voting Leave. Whole areas have changed, austerity has put huge numbers of people under financial pressure and left them worrying about being able to supply even the basics for their families. I can see why they feel they have nothing to lose by voting to get out of the EU. I do think they are going to end up extremely disillusioned and disappointed though.SeanT said:
No, I AM scared. Only a fool would be entirely sanguine. It's scary. But crucially:Omnium said:
People are also really very annoyed at the doom, more doom, and hang on we've found even more doom, argument.SeanT said:reverend_cat said:Leave out to 2.9 on Betfair....
Everyone wants to back Remain when the polls aren't out.
Some super confident people out there.
Despite what I've just said, with a gun to my head I'd still predict a REMAIN win. People ARE scared. Enough will wobble
You're not scared, I'm not scared, I think we can conclude that nobody being scared is at least something of a runner.
I'm with you though on Remain still being the most likely outcome.
1. I think I have enough money to cope with any likely recession, house price falls Etc
And
2. Being a geek, I know that staying in the EU is arguably much scarier, given what they've got in store for us, and how the Eurozone will have to federalise then caucus Etc
So I'm still OUT.
But Most people are neither rich nor geeky. Going by my Babymother Bellwether, enough will wobble. And I don't blame them one jot. They must think for themselves and their families.
I think I am calmed because I now see this as a fair fight, going to the wire. Previously I expected REMAIN to stitch it up and bully everyone into a landslide. But no. The Establishment and Eurocrats are properly terrified of the public's will. As it should be. And both sides are coming out with good arguments as well as stupid lies
It's been a heartening campaign. I know this is a unusual opinion but I am cheered by the way it's gone. Ordinary people are talking politics - and they really are. I've heard them, as never before. I've never previously experienced strangers asking in depth questions about votes and elections and sovereignty
Referendums are good. On the right, important subjects. I'm glad we have this one
And so to the final week. Aux armes0 -
SeanT is wrong. You can have an outstanding meal in Paris. The Pavilion Ledoyen just gave me one of the very best meals of my life.0
-
No they cannot. The decisions on a future trade agreement are under QMV.foxinsoxuk said:
Yes. Lithuania, Greece or Slovakia can block any new trade treaty between the EU and UK if they choose.SouthamObserver said:
A bloke on the Gove thing just now asked about repatriation and suggested it might be needed.midwinter said:
And the retirement areas on the south coastThrak said:
What bubble? I've been surrounded by this type of person and they think that leave is going to stop all immigration and some, who consider this relatively liberal, expect voluntary but stop at forced repatriation. You can't have much contact with the WWC if you don't realise that a party offering those things would walk into many northern town constituencies.john_zims said:@Thrak
'Populism when released is a dangerous animal.'
Wanting to have a GP appointment when your ill, a school that's not overcrowded for your kids and affordable housing is somehow 'POPULISM & RACISM'.
Can't believe how out of touch you are, you need to get out of your bubble occasionally.
I thought the reaction of the Spanish nurse, who has been here for fourteen years, was very interesting. Talking tough on immigration will win Leave the referendum, clearly. But then Gove and Boris have to go to Europe to get their deal. There are going to be a lot of voters in countries like Spain, Poland, the Czech Republic who will have heard what the Leave side have said about EU immigrants and - probably more pertinently - seen the headlines in the tabloids and they will not be wanting their governments to give the UK an easy time. There are lot more British immigrants in Spain, for example, than there are Spanish ones in the UK. I am not sure that Poland has a huge trade surplus with the UK, or that many Eastern European countries do.
Winning is one thing. But with everything they say and do Leave are making delivery that much harder.
Don't make too many enemies on your way up, because you are likely to meet them again on your way down.0 -
I neglected to add, please consider that the EU doesn't have untrammeled power. It is a member of the WTO. The UK wields a lot of soft power as well. I'm not downplaying the risks, but both sides have much at stake. As the saying has it, "money talks, bullshit walks".Robert_Of_Sheffield said:Anecdote alert.
On another forum, there are a bunch of French and German posters who claim the UK is widely seen on the continent as a nation of whiners, nostalgic for empire, who have spent the last 40 years demanding special treatment. They say that if we leave the EU we won't be missed, and if we stay we'll be expected to become good European citizens, abandoning all opt-outs.
Of course, the opinion of random internet commentators is not a reliable guide to the majority view in France or Germany, but this does suggest that after a British exit, populist politicians trying to whip up anti-UK sentiment might find fertile ground.0 -
Changing PM, CoE, and most of the front bench, while junking austerity is a hell of a policy shift.john_zims said:@foxinsoxuk
'I think that Leave must mean an early election. Replacing a Leader between elections is never very popular, but replacing nearly an entire government and manifesto without an election is an insult to democracy.'
What ?
The referendum was a key policy in the 2015 manifesto and the government is chosen from the MP's elected from the winning party.
Should we also have an election each time there is a significant change of government ministers ?
Even if the Conservative party backs the change, there would be hell to pay at the next election.
Without a GE it is hard to see a Parliament 75% Remain approving a Leave deal.
And there is me thinking that Leave was not afraid of the democratic voice of the British people...0 -
Compares with c68% at General Election. Of course comparative turnout can be a misleading figure if there is also a significant increase in registrations.alex. said:
Polling staff in my area (South West London) have been told to expect 80% turnout. Not sure how that would extrapolate across the country.DanSmith said:0 -
From another Remainer, Quite. Osborne is even more embarrassing than Cameron as an "ally".Danny565 said:
Quite. Even by Osborne's standards, it must've taken a special kind of logic to think "I'm a bastard who wants to hit your pocketbook, so vote Remain to keep me in office" was a winning message.foxinsoxuk said:
It may well be that the mooted "emergency austerity budget" is more associated with the Cameron and Osborne regime (and thereby Remain) than it is with Leave. I don't think it a master strategy.alex. said:It's possible that Osborne's budget stuff today was quite simply a desperate attempt to get the campaign away from Immigation, immigration, immigration. People don't have to believe the extent of the warnings, but at least they will be thinking about something other than immigration. And presumably the idea is to get people thinking "that's scaremongering, it won't be anywhere near that bad", but as long as they still think it will be a little bit bad then that is probably enough.
It's the flipside of Leave exaggerating the contributions we make to the EU, it's not best countered by "it's nothing like £350m it's much less than that".0 -
I'd rather be in Calabria watching beautiful barefooted women dancing the Tarantella, while I drink peppery red wine and eat spicy sausage pasta. It's going to be a long eight days here in the UK.SeanT said:
Interestingly, a lot of my anger at REMAINIACS has abated (apart from the senior politicians, and some of the more nauseating PB-ers)SouthamObserver said:
Likewise, I do not blame ordinary punters for voting Leave. Whole areas have changed, going to end up extremely disillusioned and disappointed though.SeanT said:
No, I AM scared. Only a fool would be entirely sanguine. It's scary. But crucially:Omnium said:
People are also really very annoyed at the doom, more doom, and hang on we've found even more doom, argument.SeanT said:reverend_cat said:Leave out to 2.9 on Betfair....
Everyone wants to back Remain when the polls aren't out.
Some super confident people out there.
Despite what I've just said, with a gun to my head I'd still predict a REMAIN win. People ARE scared. Enough will wobble
You're not scared, I'm not scared, I think we can conclude that nobody being scared is at least something of a runner.
I'm with you though on Remain still being the most likely outcome.
1. I think I have enough money to cope with any likely recession, house price falls Etc
And
2. Being a geek, I know that staying in the EU is arguably much scarier, given what they've got in store for us, and how the Eurozone will have to federalise then caucus Etc
So I'm still OUT.
But Most people are neither rich nor geeky. Going by my Babymother Bellwether, enough will wobble. And I don't blame them one jot. They must think for themselves and their families.
I think I am calmed because I now see this as a fair fight, going to the wire. Previously I expected REMAIN to stitch it up and bully everyone into a landslide. But no. The Establishment and Eurocrats are properly terrified of the public's will. As it should be. And both sides are coming out with good arguments as well as stupid lies
It's been a heartening campaign. I know this is a unusual opinion but I am cheered by the way it's gone. Ordinary people are talking politics - and they really are. I've heard them, as never before. I've never previously experienced strangers asking in depth questions about votes and elections and sovereignty
Referendums are good. On the right, important subjects. I'm glad we have this one
And so to the final week. Aux armes
Will you get a chance to check out the Arbëreshë?
0 -
French not f##king about this time...CRS out in force.
https://twitter.com/brendantr/status/7431610822739886090 -
Isn't that not the advice from the Electoral Comission?alex. said:
Polling staff in my area (South West London) have been told to expect 80% turnout. Not sure how that would extrapolate across the country.DanSmith said:
Preparing for that level of turnout is understandable, whether it actually will be anything like that is another matter.0 -
Leave moving in quickly, but on low volumes. A few ITKs about tonights polling?0
-
I'm your polar opposite in that I'm remain but I'd rather be Leave. I dislike the EU intensely and understand people's fears on migration. However they have singularly failed to address my economic concerns, their Leaders are either clowns or vile, and telling me that we will have more sovereignty is bs when governments are elected with the support of well under half of the population.Omnium said:
Ok, so why are you scared?SeanT said:
No, I AM scared. Only a fool would be entirely sanguine. It's scary. But crucially:Omnium said:
People are also really very annoyed at the doom, more doom, and hang on we've found even more doom, argument.SeanT said:reverend_cat said:Leave out to 2.9 on Betfair....
Everyone wants to back Remain when the polls aren't out.
Some super confident people out there.
Despite what I've just said, with a gun to my head I'd still predict a REMAIN win. People ARE scared. Enough will wobble
You're not scared, I'm not scared, I think we can conclude that nobody being scared is at least something of a runner.
I'm with you though on Remain still being the most likely outcome.
1. I think I have enough money to cope with any likely recession, house price falls Etc
And
2. Being a geek, I know that staying in the EU is arguably much scarier, given what they've got in store for us, and how the Eurozone will have to federalise then caucus Etc
So I'm still OUT.
But Most people are neither rich nor geeky. Going by my Babymother Bellwether, enough will wobble. And I don't blame them one jot. They must think for themselves and their families.
I wish I was entirely sanguine, if only to earn the tag, but I'm not. It's tricky - very, very tricky. I think that the EU has consistently done us a disservice, and I think that we've had diabolical politicians when the big choices are bot within their grasp. I think too that Johnny-EnglishWoman is less than she once was.
I'm Leave, but I so much want to not be.0 -
Florida is not the Blackpool Pleasure beach. Gators and all sorts of poisonous snakes and spiders etc are everywhere in the South.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
In this era of health and safety the idea that someone could go to a category one theme park and be eaten by an alligator hiding in a pond is quite mind boggling.John_M said:
Yes, we were saying earlier that Orlando is having an annus horribilis. The poor parents, they must be going out of their mindsTim_B said:You folks aware of this?
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2016/06/14/reports-alligator-drags-child-into-water-fla/85905266/.
a) it's hardly a pond, - it's a huge expanse of water as large as the magic Kingdom itself - and b) alligators are native to Florida (and Georgia come to that).
Anyone on a golf course here knows that you never go into long grass or bushes without a club for protection, (snakes), and you NEVER put your hand into a lake / pond to retrieve a ball. Always assume that there is a gator in every pond. I've seen several sunning themselves or walking lazily across fairways. It's second nature when you live here. They can move quite fast across land when they are chasing.
Unfortunately this family were from Nebraska and knew nothing of gators. The water was well posted with 'no swimming' signs though.0 -
You might even find the same person being pulled both ways.SeanT said:
But you can also find LOTS of European commenters who admire Britain for standing up to Brussels, for having the guts to hold a referendum, for always fighting our corner, etcRobert_Of_Sheffield said:Anecdote alert.
On another forum, there are a bunch of French and German posters who claim the UK is widely seen on the continent as a nation of whiners, nostalgic for empire, who have spent the last 40 years demanding special treatment. They say that if we leave the EU we won't be missed, and if we stay we'll be expected to become good European citizens, abandoning all opt-outs.
Of course, the opinion of random internet commentators is not a reliable guide to the majority view in France or Germany, but this does suggest that after a British exit, populist politicians trying to whip up anti-UK sentiment might find fertile ground.
Some of them actively want OUT to win, to screw Brussels. Italians in particular think this. And swedes.
Ideally, I would want this referendum to be a vote of confidence in the EU. That is, we can say we have no confidence in the current arrangement, but we'll give you one last chance to mend your ways. But, that's not on offer.
So, as I said earlier, it comes down to what world do you want? A world of nation states, traditions, and sovereignty, or a world of supranational institutions, with capital and people moving wherever they wish.
I choose the former.0 -
I don't know - but apparently there were unprecedented registrations in the last few days, and significant increase in ex-Pat registrations.brokenwheel said:
Isn't that not the advice from the Electoral Comission?alex. said:
Polling staff in my area (South West London) have been told to expect 80% turnout. Not sure how that would extrapolate across the country.DanSmith said:
Preparing for that level of turnout is understandable, whether it actually will be anything like that is another matter.0 -
I must congratulate bob geldof on contributing to the leave campaign today. That moment perfectly encapsulated just how out of touch our ruling class is with the ordinary people of Britain.0
-
Which one is Dave?rcs1000 said:
Anyone claiming Turkey will join the EU in our lifetimes is a fool or a liar.Indigo said:
And then today http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3641873/Britain-caves-talks-Turkey-joining-EU-Leave-campaigners-say-climbdown-makes-mockery-Cameron-s-claim-country-not-join-EU-year-3000.htmlSouthamObserver said:And if he really believes that the government will not use its veto to prevent Turkey joining the EU then he believes that David Cameron is a liar.
0 -
Strange how the BBC camera didn't manage to capture his hand gestures. I am sure if Farage had signalled anything they wouldn't have missed.hunchman said:I must congratulate bob geldof on contributing to the leave campaign today. That moment perfectly encapsulated just how out of touch our ruling class is with the ordinary people of Britain.
0 -
He's on Question Time this Thursday. That will be fun.hunchman said:I must congratulate bob geldof on contributing to the leave campaign today. That moment perfectly encapsulated just how out of touch our ruling class is with the ordinary people of Britain.
0 -
Judging by the betting markets you could well be in the minority come the 24th. If you lose don't be too despondent- there are plenty other nihilistic causes you can cling to...Donald Trump, Le Pen, fracking, exposing the great climate change myth...just a few spring to kind. You can always continue to blame the immigrants for everything, and become even more hateful of Muslims as they flee for their lives from war torn countries. Or hope that the seas off Libya become a bit stormy. Loads of luscious, nihilistic stuff to salivate on.Casino_Royale said:
Quite so. Things have gone much too far now for us to stay.Robert_Of_Sheffield said:Anecdote alert.
On another's forum, there are a bunch of French and German posters who claim the UK is widely seen on the continent as a nation of whiners, nostalgic for empire, who have spent the last 40 years demanding special treatment. They say that if we leave the EU we won't be missed, and if we stay we'll be expected to become good European citizens, abandoning all opt-outs.
Of course, the opinion of random internet commentators is not a reliable guide to the majority view in France or Germany, but this does suggest that after a British exit, populist politicians trying to whip up anti-UK sentiment might find fertile ground.
We must Leave and see this through.
0 -
This is why the 'elite' always favour supra-national organisations - it safeguards them from the people of their own countries.SeanT said:
Exactly right. Recent polls show that other European countries are more eurosceptic than us, including France.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Europe too have a smug elite of pro Europe AB liberal internationalists and increasingly annoyed working class and small c conservatives. We tend to see and hear a lot more of the former category.SeanT said:
But you can also find LOTS of European commenters who admire Britain for standing up to Brussels, for having the guts to hold a referendum, for always fighting our corner, etcRobert_Of_Sheffield said:Anecdote alert.
On another forum, there are a bunch of French and German posters who claim the UK is widely seen on the continent as a nation of whiners, nostalgic for empire, who have spent the last 40 years demanding special treatment. They say that if we leave the EU we won't be missed, and if we stay we'll be expected to become good European citizens, abandoning all opt-outs.
Of course, the opinion of random internet commentators is not a reliable guide to the majority view in France or Germany, but this does suggest that after a British exit, populist politicians trying to whip up anti-UK sentiment might find fertile ground.
Some of them actively want OUT to win, to screw Brussels. Italians in particular think this. And swedes.
This chimes with my recent visit there. I heard a lot of eurosceptic French voices. People with a kind of bitter, weary contempt, like a wife who expected too much of an alcoholic husband, who once was so handsome. And grateful.
I also noticed far fewer eu flags than normal, and many more tricolors. By contrast down here in Calabria you can't move for eu flags. They're more common than Italian flags, arguably.
After a while they stop thinking in terms of their own nations and instead regard an international 'elite' as their own demos.
0 -
People underestimate the British. We systematically exterminated pretty much every dangerous critter in this country. We get the occasional adder bite.Tim_B said:
Florida is not the Blackpool Pleasure beach. Gators and all sorts of poisonous snakes and spiders etc are everywhere in the South.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
In this era of health and safety the idea that someone could go to a category one theme park and be eaten by an alligator hiding in a pond is quite mind boggling.John_M said:
Yes, we were saying earlier that Orlando is having an annus horribilis. The poor parents, they must be going out of their mindsTim_B said:You folks aware of this?
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2016/06/14/reports-alligator-drags-child-into-water-fla/85905266/.
a) it's hardly a pond, - it's a huge expanse of water as large as the magic Kingdom itself - and b) alligators are native to Florida (and Georgia come to that).
Anyone on a golf course here knows that you never go into long grass or bushes without a club for protection, (snakes), and you NEVER put your hand into a lake / pond to retrieve a ball. Always assume that there is a gator in every pond. I've seen several sunning themselves or walking lazily across fairways. It's second nature when you live here. They can move quite fast across land when they are chasing.
Unfortunately this family were from Nebraska and knew nothing of gators. The water was well posted with 'no swimming' signs though.
This can literally come back to bite the unwary Brit abroad. Far too guileless. I once saw a woman get quite badly injured in Voi (Kenya). We'd been explicitly told not to carry food. She had fruit in her handbag and a small troop of baboons decided it was dinner time.
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The good news is that when Leave lose next week, thanks to free movement of workers across the EU, they can all piss off to eastern Europe and leave us all in peace.0
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Quite. It's strange how the bbc doesn't focus on alot of things including activities on that road I'm not allowed to mention on here.FrancisUrquhart said:
Strange how the BBC camera didn't manage to capture his hand gestures. I am sure if Farage had signalled anything they wouldn't have missed.hunchman said:I must congratulate bob geldof on contributing to the leave campaign today. That moment perfectly encapsulated just how out of touch our ruling class is with the ordinary people of Britain.
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Unanimity is required for all Security and Foreign policy areas, and relations with a post Brexit UK would be foreign policy.Richard_Tyndall said:
No they cannot. The decisions on a future trade agreement are under QMV.foxinsoxuk said:
Yes. Lithuania, Greece or Slovakia can block any new trade treaty between the EU and UK if they choose.SouthamObserver said:
A bloke on the Gove thing just now asked about repatriation and suggested it might be needed.midwinter said:
And the retirement areas on the south coastThrak said:
What bubble? I've been surrounded by this type of person and they think that leave is going to stop all immigration and some, who consider this relatively liberal, expect voluntary but stop at forced repatriation. You can't have much contact with the WWC if you don't realise that a party offering those things would walk into many northern town constituencies.john_zims said:@Thrak
'Populism when released is a dangerous animal.'
Wanting to have a GP appointment when your ill, a school that's not overcrowded for your kids and affordable housing is somehow 'POPULISM & RACISM'.
Can't believe how out of touch you are, you need to get out of your bubble occasionally.
I thought the reaction of the Spanish nurse, who has been here for fourteen years, was very interesting. Talking tough on immigration will win Leave the referendum, clearly. But then Gove and Boris have to go to Europe to get their deal. There are going to be a lot of voters in countries like Spain, Poland, the Czech Republic who will have heard what the Leave side have said about EU immigrants and - probably more pertinently - seen the headlines in the tabloids and they will not be wanting their governments to give the UK an easy time. There are lot more British immigrants in Spain, for example, than there are Spanish ones in the UK. I am not sure that Poland has a huge trade surplus with the UK, or that many Eastern European countries do.
Winning is one thing. But with everything they say and do Leave are making delivery that much harder.
Don't make too many enemies on your way up, because you are likely to meet them again on your way down.
Any country can also veto on financial matters if they choose, and they may well use this as a lever.0 -
I'm not sure that a high turnout favours one side or the other. High turnout will bring out young people, which will favour Remain, but it will bring out working class voters, which favours Leave.DanSmith said:
But, it would be great if we did get 80% voting.0 -
Whereas you can found your new National Socialist party where only those who hold your repugnant views are allowed to vote.tyson said:
Judging by the betting markets you could well be in the minority come the 24th. If you lose don't be too despondent- there are plenty other nihilistic causes you can cling to...Donald Trump, Le Pen, fracking, exposing the great climate change myth...just a few spring to kind. You can always continue to blame the immigrants for everything, and become even more hateful of Muslims as they flee for their lives from war torn countries. Or hope that the seas off Libya become a bit stormy. Loads of luscious, nihilistic stuff to salivate on.Casino_Royale said:
Quite so. Things have gone much too far now for us to stay.Robert_Of_Sheffield said:Anecdote alert.
On another's forum, there are a bunch of French and German posters who claim the UK is widely seen on the continent as a nation of whiners, nostalgic for empire, who have spent the last 40 years demanding special treatment. They say that if we leave the EU we won't be missed, and if we stay we'll be expected to become good European citizens, abandoning all opt-outs.
Of course, the opinion of random internet commentators is not a reliable guide to the majority view in France or Germany, but this does suggest that after a British exit, populist politicians trying to whip up anti-UK sentiment might find fertile ground.
We must Leave and see this through.0 -
The betting markets mean bugger all.tyson said:
Judging by the betting markets you could well be in the minority come the 24th. If you lose don't be too despondent- there are plenty other nihilistic causes you can cling to...Donald Trump, Le Pen, fracking, exposing the great climate change myth...just a few spring to kind. You can always continue to blame the immigrants for everything, and become even more hateful of Muslims as they flee for their lives from war torn countries. Or hope that the seas off Libya become a bit stormy. Loads of luscious, nihilistic stuff to salivate on.Casino_Royale said:
Quite so. Things have gone much too far now for us to stay.Robert_Of_Sheffield said:Anecdote alert.
On another's forum, there are a bunch of French and German posters who claim the UK is widely seen on the continent as a nation of whiners, nostalgic for empire, who have spent the last 40 years demanding special treatment. They say that if we leave the EU we won't be missed, and if we stay we'll be expected to become good European citizens, abandoning all opt-outs.
Of course, the opinion of random internet commentators is not a reliable guide to the majority view in France or Germany, but this does suggest that after a British exit, populist politicians trying to whip up anti-UK sentiment might find fertile ground.
We must Leave and see this through.0 -
Calling a temporary truce on the minor thing of the EU far more important matters have arisen.......how does one get a very fine, full glass of chianti off a beige sofa? I've got about thirty minutes before my superior being returns home.0
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I wouldn't go in the water in Blackpool either. No gators but if the microbes do not get you the radioactivity will!Tim_B said:
Florida is not the Blackpool Pleasure beach. Gators and all sorts of poisonous snakes and spiders etc are everywhere in the South.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
In this era of health and safety the idea that someone could go to a category one theme park and be eaten by an alligator hiding in a pond is quite mind boggling.John_M said:
Yes, we were saying earlier that Orlando is having an annus horribilis. The poor parents, they must be going out of their mindsTim_B said:You folks aware of this?
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2016/06/14/reports-alligator-drags-child-into-water-fla/85905266/.0 -
What's that phrase about being savaged by a dead sheep?..tyson said:
Judging by the betting markets you could well be in the minority come the 24th. If you lose don't be too despondent- there are plenty other nihilistic causes you can cling to...Donald Trump, Le Pen, fracking, exposing the great climate change myth...just a few spring to kind. You can always continue to blame the immigrants for everything, and become even more hateful of Muslims as they flee for their lives from war torn countries. Or hope that the seas off Libya become a bit stormy. Loads of luscious, nihilistic stuff to salivate on.Casino_Royale said:
Quite so. Things have gone much too far now for us to stay.Robert_Of_Sheffield said:Anecdote alert.
On another's forum, there are a bunch of French and German posters who claim the UK is widely seen on the continent as a nation of whiners, nostalgic for empire, who have spent the last 40 years demanding special treatment. They say that if we leave the EU we won't be missed, and if we stay we'll be expected to become good European citizens, abandoning all opt-outs.
Of course, the opinion of random internet commentators is not a reliable guide to the majority view in France or Germany, but this does suggest that after a British exit, populist politicians trying to whip up anti-UK sentiment might find fertile ground.
We must Leave and see this through.0 -
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Wrong. The new relationship with between the EU and the UK is decided under the Article 50 provisions and that explicitly states that the decision on the EU side is by QMV. Any other trade agreement post Brexit is also decided by QMV.foxinsoxuk said:
Unanimity is required for all Security and Foreign policy areas, and relations with a post Brexit UK would be foreign policy.Richard_Tyndall said:
No they cannot. The decisions on a future trade agreement are under QMV.foxinsoxuk said:
Yes. Lithuania, Greece or Slovakia can block any new trade treaty between the EU and UK if they choose.SouthamObserver said:
A bloke on the Gove thing just now asked about repatriation and suggested it might be needed.midwinter said:
And the retirement areas on the south coastThrak said:
What bubble? I've been surrounded by this type of person and they think that leave is going to stop all immigration and some, who consider this relatively liberal, expect voluntary but stop at forced repatriation. You can't have much contact with the WWC if you don't realise that a party offering those things would walk into many northern town constituencies.john_zims said:@Thrak
'Populism when released is a dangerous animal.'
Wanting to have a GP appointment when your ill, a school that's not overcrowded for your kids and affordable housing is somehow 'POPULISM & RACISM'.
Can't believe how out of touch you are, you need to get out of your bubble occasionally.
I thought the reaction of the Spanish nurse, who has been here for fourteen years, was very interesting. Talking tough on immigration will win Leave the referendum, clearly. But then Gove and Boris have to go to Europe to get their deal. There are going to be a lot of voters in countries like Spain, Poland, the Czech Republic who will have heard what the Leave side have said about EU immigrants and - probably more pertinently - seen the headlines in the tabloids and they will not be wanting their governments to give the UK an easy time. There are lot more British immigrants in Spain, for example, than there are Spanish ones in the UK. I am not sure that Poland has a huge trade surplus with the UK, or that many Eastern European countries do.
Winning is one thing. But with everything they say and do Leave are making delivery that much harder.
Don't make too many enemies on your way up, because you are likely to meet them again on your way down.
Any country can also veto on financial matters if they choose, and they may well use this as a lever.0 -
White wine gets out red wine.tyson said:Calling a temporary truce on the minor thing of the EU far more important matters have arisen.......how does one get a very fine, full glass of chianti off a beige sofa? I've got about thirty minutes before my superior being returns home.
Best not tried the other way around.0 -
It is clear Osborne is finished. When Rees Mogg's reaction when questioned on whether Osborne should remain as Chancellor post-Brexit said it all.PlatoSaid said:Mogg from 3.30
https://youtu.be/xQI7oNHQI1A0 -
Sounds like the 30 min warning of our youth.tyson said:Calling a temporary truce on the minor thing of the EU far more important matters have arisen.......how does one get a very fine, full glass of chianti off a beige sofa? I've got about thirty minutes before my superior being returns home.
Sit against the wall, put your head between your knees - and kiss your ass goodbye.0 -
Very interesting Mr. Meeks.
Anecdotally I mentioned that our couple of dozen closer friends shall be voting "remain", with one possible exception. I now discover that this one too is strong "remainer", but that his Polish immigrant wife will vote "leave" as she is upset by the degree of house building around them, driven she says by all this dangerous immigration. Hmmmm.
In compensation, my sharp Muslim immigrant taxi driver today---has voted to stay.0 -
When Remain wins I'm gonna turn my guns on the British working classes and remind them what a bunch of lazy, ignorant, worthless, racist, xenophobic, drunk, uneducated, poor chavs they are.tyson said:
Judging by the betting markets you could well be in the minority come the 24th. If you lose don't be too despondent- there are plenty other nihilistic causes you can cling to...Donald Trump, Le Pen, fracking, exposing the great climate change myth...just a few spring to kind. You can always continue to blame the immigrants for everything, and become even more hateful of Muslims as they flee for their lives from war torn countries. Or hope that the seas off Libya become a bit stormy. Loads of luscious, nihilistic stuff to salivate on.Casino_Royale said:
Quite so. Things have gone much too far now for us to stay.Robert_Of_Sheffield said:Anecdote alert.
On another's forum, there are a bunch of French and German posters who claim the UK is widely seen on the continent as a nation of whiners, nostalgic for empire, who have spent the last 40 years demanding special treatment. They say that if we leave the EU we won't be missed, and if we stay we'll be expected to become good European citizens, abandoning all opt-outs.
Of course, the opinion of random internet commentators is not a reliable guide to the majority view in France or Germany, but this does suggest that after a British exit, populist politicians trying to whip up anti-UK sentiment might find fertile ground.
We must Leave and see this through.
You can sneer at them with me if you like.0
